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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/1/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Mr Gresham (1/1/02; 23:33:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 67563)
Enron Admits: It's Really Argentina
http://www.satirewire.com/news/0111/enron.shtml
and you wonder why we have trouble figuring it all out!

Simply Me (1/1/02; 23:20:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 67562)
Happy New Year!
A peaceful and prosperous 2002 to all here at the USAGold Forum!
Had to reduce my time here to just an occassional lurk over the last few months. This holiday season was murder in my retail business. Even though I just run the computer end of it, the pressure to keep sales up was tremendous.
Looking forward to catching up,
simply

Buena Fe (1/1/02; 22:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 67561)
2002 yahoo!
The Best Hopes for 2002 to All "Honest Weights and Measures" folk here at USAGOLD land!!! May you Prosper.

How will the world's transition from the seventh "$system" to the eighth transpire? Through collapse or amalgamation?

My bet ...... collapse.

FOA/TG/SD, miss your postulations, friend. Hope all is well, patience is priceless.

Black Blade (1/1/02; 22:19:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 67560)
Argentina May Abandon Peso/Dollar Peg
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020101/business_economy_argentina_dc_1.html

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina's new President Eduardo Duhalde, facing massive pressure to save the economy from a four-year recession, could abandon or radically change the country's one-to-one currency peg to the dollar, his advisers said on Tuesday. ``The depreciation of the peso is being analyzed,'' an adviser to Duhalde said. The new government could change the peg to 1.30 pesos or 1.40 pesos to the dollar, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. The devalued peso would then be pegged to a new basket of currencies, including the Brazilian real, euro, dollar and the Japanese yen.

Black Blade: Obviously. What a surprise! Like no one here saw this one coming. BTW, what are the odds on the new prez making it to end of term? "Interesting Times"

BTW, Mark Mobius of Templeton Funds was in South Africa a couple of years ago and he made the suggestion to the Government officials that they should consider backing the Rand with Gold. The currency situation in SA could be a lot different today if that advice was followed.


darkhorse (1/1/02; 21:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 67559)
(No Subject)
If some "lynch pin" event happens, or just a string of smaller tremblors, and the US ends up being forced into a devaluation (let's say 10:1...what cost $10,000 now ends up $1,000; a person making $50,000 now ends up making $5,000; etc, etc). Is this even the way it works? What happens to gold prices/oz and its purchasing power? I'm an economic rookie still in the minor leagues and I need help from all the seasoned pros. Intuitively I've "known" the things we're seeing these days were coming (I just thought it was the cynic in me), and I believe things will get much worse before they get better (there's that cynic again). I'm a Patrick Henry kind of person...

"Are we disposed to be of the number of those who, having eyes, see not, and, having ears, hear not? For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it."
Patrick Henry, 23 Mar 1775

I need info...I also believe God helps those who help themselves! TIA

ski (1/1/02; 21:39:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 67558)
Ongoing Silver Lease Rate Discussion


By now, everyone around here is aware that silver lease rates are acting very unusual. Many here have discussed this phenomenon at length and have expressed frustration that no one seems to know for sure why this is happening.

While I very much appreciate what others have posted on this subject, I also believe that if you are waiting for the FINAL ANSWER on lease rates before you commit additional investment money to silver, you may wait a long time and miss part of the opportunity being presented to you.

Why do I think this? Simply this: In my view, the whole playing field for lease rates includes very basic supply and demand principles. While at the same time, it also includes elements of secrecy, deception and intrigue that circumvent the basic supply and demand rules.

It has been said that Americans are "checker players". But the "lease rate game" is much more like a fine game of "chess". Any number of apparently conflicting strateies may all be taking place at the same time in an attempt to confuse and mislead the opponent.

Conclusion, we many never know for sure what forces or motivations are behind higher silver lease rates.
Investors can easily get caught in the trap of "waiting until everything is perfect" before moving ahead. I suspect that we could be waiting for a long time for the final answer on silver lease rates. And even then, I'm not sure that we will have a truthful, accurate answer.

As a final thought, one of many investment principle that I operate on is this: "When a market closes above or below a key target for three days in a row, assume the trend is in place." (from Jim Mckeever)

Nuff said .....

Black Blade (1/1/02; 21:24:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 67557)
Retailers May Close Stores, Doors in 2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020101/business_retail_outlook_dc_1.html

Snippit:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Only the fittest survive in lean times, and that could mean store closures, consolidation or even bankruptcies for weaker U.S. retailers banking on good holiday sales to pull them through the year, consultants said. ``Anybody counting on a great Christmas for survival better start preparing their Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition,'' Dominic DiNapoli, managing partner in business recovery Services at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, said.

Most retail chains will be glad to close the books on 2001, as weak holiday sales capped a year already marked by the recession and the Sept. 11 attacks. Consumers slashed spending on items like clothing and luxury goods and stayed clear of malls, and spent more time at home. Holiday purchases are critical to retailers' health because they can account for as much as 25 percent of annual sales. A weak season, coupled with economic damage inflicted by the U.S. recession may spell trouble for some.


Black Blade: With more store closures and corporate bankruptcies, we shall see many more "Bones" added to the "Bone Pile". We should see a lot of such activity probably starting next week as Christmas holiday help is the first to get the axe, and then a continuation of firings of the rank and file. In a word - "GRIM"


sector (1/1/02; 21:17:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 67556)
USD Showing a bit of Weakness...No ads on this link
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/chart.cgi?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=1&a=1&v=s
Down half a buck this first evening of 2002.

ski (1/1/02; 20:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 67555)
Potential Japanese Precious Metal Buying


Many on this forum have been made aware of the upcoming change in deposit insurance in Japan. In short, the upper level that an savings account is insured for will be lowered considerably; leaving large amounts of savings at risk. It also appears that some of this risk money has moved into gold as imports and sales of gold have significantly increased.

While pondering the above, a little light finally clicked on in my noggin'. I recalled an economic principle that I had jotted down after reading somebody's investment book long ago. (Perhaps R. Prechter or Doug Casey)

The economic principle went like this: "Demand is an economic concept, a function of PEOPLES WEALTH, not their DESIRES or even their NUMBERS (population)."

The essence of the above quote says this: When considering a major economic change, it is a mistake to weigh the level of DESIRE or POPULATION that would like to participate in a given economic activity. What is much more important is THE LEVEL OF WEALTH of the individual. In other words, any number of people may have a DESIRE to own gold or other precious metals, but they can do nothing about their DESIRE unless they also possess the WEALTH to act on their desire.

Back to Japan

Japan is NOT "just another country". I am not aware of any other nation on the planet with more savings in the bank per person. Because of the immense pool of savings (wealth) and the banking changes, we now have a situation that has all of the necessary tools in place to successfully influence the precious metals arena. Will the Japanese move into this arena in a large enough way to "upset the apple cart" and "jump start" the long awaited move in gold? I wish that I knew. But what we all now know is that at least THIS TIME the POTENTIAL EXISTS for it to REALLY HAPPEN!



ski (1/1/02; 19:52:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 67554)
Year In Review ... Uranium


The topic of Uranium is a bit off topic here on the forum. However, a brief note on its behavior over the past year seems to be in order.

On or about 1-29-01 I noted on this forum that the spot price of uranium had just made its FIRST up-move in a couple of years. I also noted at that time that the price of uranium moves like a giant supertanker at sea. Once it makes a new move, it contines in that direction for long periods of time WITHOUT making the normal "two steps forward; one step back" move that every other market seems to do.

Spot uranium started the year at $7.10 and ended the year at $9.60. These do not seem like big numbers as the price rose $2.50 over the year. However, IN PERCENTAGE TERMS this represents an increase of 35.2% for the year..... Quite a significant number!

Also worth noting is that spot uranium did not even record a single down number over the entire year. Thus holding true to the supertanker syndrome.

......................

In the text above I noted that the actual numbers for spot uranium are not particularly impressive however IN PERCENTAGE TERMS it had made a singificant jump. It has been my experience with novice investors that they tend to focus on ACTUAL NUMBERS rather than PERCENTAGE NUMBERS. With $1,000 to invest, they would prefer to purchase a $100 stock that goes up to $110 rather than a $1 stock that goes up to $2. In the first case you made 10% and in the second ... 100%!

I suspect that many novice gold bugs make this same mistake when they compare gold's price to the price of silver. The lesson here is that you want to be invested in the market that you believe will make the HIGHEST PERCENTAGE MOVE.




Leigh (1/1/02; 18:36:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 67553)
Au-some
At the end of the review there's a link to the editor. You should send in your opinion! Though it may not get the appreciation it's due.

This poorly-written review does what it accuses the book of doing - moving at a slow, ponderous pace. Oh, and did the reviewer mean to insult us by stating that our souls are stirred by the words "sound money and honest banking?" That cretin's slimy soul is probably stirred by the words "Hillary in 2004."

Au-some (1/1/02; 18:22:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 67552)
P.S.
Happy New Year!

Au-some (1/1/02; 18:20:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 67551)
Leigh #67514 re. Julian Dibbell's review
His overuse of adjectives is the sure mark of an amateur. Also, "...the readers likely to get the most out of this...may well be those of us who...have never come so close to the edge of consensus reality that we fell off." Spoken like a true member of the Flat Earth Society.

slingshot (1/1/02; 17:08:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 67550)
Canuck Msg.#67547 Bone Pile
We should see the bonepile hit 1 Million in January. Standing at 985,400 at Forbes layoff tracker and that is only counting Forbes 500. Like you Canuck, I follow Black Blades Bone Pile but it lacks information. Nothing that Black Blade can do about it. You have to think further into what they choose to release to the public.

O.K.. 985,400 out of work. Not a big number unless you are one of THEM.
How many are first time subscribers to unemployment benefits?
How many have been dropped from this list cause they run out of benefits.
How many have taken employment with a wage well below what they did earn?
How many will work TWO JOBS to make ends meet?
How many will go on welfare and recieve Food Stamps?
How many will become Street People?

Companies loose profits and layoff workers.
The Government looses part of its Tax base and then on top of that pays benefits.
Then the company gets into trouble and the Government bails them out with my Tax money.
So they either raise my Taxes or Print more money up. I'M screwed both ways.
If the average household has a $8,000 in credit card debt and a large Mortgage to boot. Plus a negative savings. Unemployment could be a major factor being downplayed this year. If only they put some fiat into Gold. The stock market became their savings account and their retirement.
The Taxman waits for them to cash in the stocks too!
We do not know for sure what 2002 has in store for us. As a Goldbug,I am better prepared this year than I was last year.

There is a soft whisper on the wind, JI PAN GUUUUUUU.
Slingshot


MO VER MEG (1/1/02; 16:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 67549)
(No Subject)
I believe that there have to be a lot of currency driven metal purchases taking place in Argentina and Japan. If that is correct,I don't understand why physical is still available at these cheap prices. I would think a couple of Argentine or Japanese investors with deep pockets would have thrown the supply of metals into chaos by now. I could sure use some thoughts on this.

Happy New Year

movermeg

Canuck (1/1/02; 15:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 67548)
@ BB
We have Sherry Cooper north of the 49th. I read half of her book 'Ride the Wave', almost puked.

How do these analysts who are so far from reality (especially for so long) stay employed (or kept from bankruptcy due to lawsuits)?

Baffling.

Canuck (1/1/02; 15:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 67547)
@ BB
Mr. Blade,

Seasons Greetings.

I have observed your 'Bone Pile' posts over the last few months; good job.

Have you seen numbers showing payments by your government(s) to the unfortunate souls entering the Pile Zone. I wonder what kind of liability occurs at 4%, 5%, 6% etc. This may reflect a staggering viewpoint.

Canuck

Canuck (1/1/02; 14:58:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 67546)
@ Pizz
Saw your note about silver. I like the concept of silver being consumed but am weary of the digital photography thing. I watched the digital cameras roll out of the big electronic retailers this holiday season, selling like hot-cakes.....hmmmmm?

I started my PM collection strictly in gold a year or so pre-Y2K, switched to silver almost exclusively in 2000 and first half of 2001. During the summer I switched back to gold.

I am presently holding silver to gold at a ratio of 25:1, probably will close that down a bit.

Canuck.

Beowulf (1/1/02; 14:42:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 67545)
Happy New Year
I just wanted to pop in and wish everyone at the best Forum on the internet a Happy New Year!

-Beowulf

Pizz (1/1/02; 14:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 67544)
Black Blade
On Abby Jo, remember your comment on used car salesmen and lemons. All she needs is a cowboy hat, a monkey, and a catchy jingle like "Go see Abby... Go see Abby...

Pizz

Gandalf the White (1/1/02; 14:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 67543)
A good looking picture of the START of 2002 !!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]
<;-)>>

Pizz (1/1/02; 14:24:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 67542)
Mr. Gresham
Thank you for your kind words and encouragement. I'm still months and years behind all on this forum, but will catch up as fast as I can. (I did read the link to Mundell in its entirety yesterday. Very informative read).

As a practitioner yourself, you've more than likely encountered the situation in business very similar to the old Indian fighter whose early warning signal was the hair starting to stand up on the back of his neck. Mine have been acting like porcupine quills starting about June of this year. After 30 years in the trenches (and still professionally alive and well), my intuitions are forcasting a major "blind-side", hence my self-imposed crash course in international finance. Thank-you Microsoft, the internet bubble, all the miles of fiber optics, Mr. Greenspan for the financing, that are allowing me to further my education. (Some good usually does come from even the biggest mal-investments. How else could a forum like this have been possible?)

Back to reading and thinking - I've got another "feeling" that Silver is going to play a much more critical role than most realize. The price doesn't anyway near support basic supply and demand. If derivatives are my "Lynch pin", the slippery string that's attached is probably paper gold, and physical silver might just be the handle.

Pizz





Black Blade (1/1/02; 13:59:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 67541)
2001: Year Of The Layoff
http://www.cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,322486-412,00.shtml

CHICAGO, (CBS) The United States is on pace to record more job losses in 2001 than it has in at least nine years, the job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. Through the end of November companies had announced close to 1.8 million job cuts in 2001, nearly three times more than were announced in 2000 and the largest number since Challenger began tabulating such figures in 1993. "This year the downsizing just dwarfs anything we've seen before that," John Challenger, chief executive officer of the company that tracks employment trends, said Wednesday.

Black Blade: I would expect to see continued layoffs going forward in 2002. The deepening recession will add to the "Bone Pile".


Mr Gresham (1/1/02; 13:17:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 67540)
Econoclast, Max, Leigh
"Creature" was my eye-opener, too, in Spring of '99. Incredible to believe that I had never heard of or at least comprehended "Fiat" and "Fractional Reserve" before that. We fish truly cannot describe the water we swim in.

I've had the library's copy a few times, and mean to go out to Amazon or wherever and order my own. Maybe the author deserves to sell his own supply of them?

I think Griffin did get pulled in by a few extreme ("paranoid"?) theories, but I also think inquiring minds can stand to have it all put before them, without swallowing too much. For example, he seems to have gotten pulled in on the "Iron Mountain" report, which its author claims was a spoof, but the right wing continues to claim was for real. No big deal, either way, as I see it.

I just didn't find too many places to put my grain of salt, and I enjoyed reading, and liked the author's attitude (one of humble discovery, rather than lambasting us with Important Conclusions -- lends credibility, IMO).

Who knows what to believe anymore. I always remember "Goldstein's Book" from "1984". So after some efforts to reach out and research what lies "out there" -- easy in this 'Net age -- I try to remember to practice seeing what's right in front of my own face. (But then, didn't Richard Pryor ask "Who are you going to believe: me, or your own lying eyes?"

Enjoy.

Black Blade (1/1/02; 13:04:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 67539)
Madam Abby Jo Cohen - Pimp of Wall Street
Year In Review

Well we have wrapped up another year and now we face the year 2002. It is now a good time to review the performance of the self-serving Pimps of Wall Street. And what better Pimp to review and hold to account than the old cow of Goldman Sachs Abby Joseph Cohen and her predictions for 2001. Old Abby made several predictions and as her horrendous record attests she blew it again - "Big Time". First the closing market indices numbers for 2001 are: DOW 10,021.50, NASDAQ 1,950.40, and S&P500 1,148.08.

What did Abby Jo predict for the year end close on Wall Street? She predicted DOW at 12,500, NASDAQ 6500, and S&P 500 1650. She missed by a country mile (especially on the NASDAQ). Her DOW prediction was off by 2478.50 (-19.8%), NASDAQ off by 4549.6 (-69.99%), and S&P 500 off by 501.92 (-30.42%). This is worse than dismal performance, it is absolutely pathetic! She is not alone as other "analysts" have had similar pathetic performances. One example is Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodgett who recently was "allowed" to make an exit to "pursue other interests".

Why stop at Abby Jo's pathetic market predictions? She recently said that Enron (ENE) was an exceptional value just days before the energy trader was exposed in a massive fraud. Enron was trading at nearly $90 a share and has since plummeted to worthless. Way to go Abby Jo!

She makes a hell of a lot of predictions. Some are even right on occasion, but she is wrong far more than she is right. Make enough predictions and eventually some will be right. It is like the water dowser who will search for water using a forked branch. No one recalls the mistakes, however, everyone remembers the successes However, Abby Jo's market predictions are wrong because she gets the underlying economic analysis wrong. Some may have noticed is that she has a self-serving way of shading her statements so as not to call attention to her horrendous record, while at the same time dropping subtle reminders of the few things she was right about. She also twists the record to make it appear that she was right, while being dead wrong.

In short Pimp Abby Jo Cohen is a pathetic analyst. She's a self-serving spinner, who never ever takes responsibility for being wrong. It's the market who gets it wrong, investors who get it wrong. It appears that the market and media talking heads are taking notice. On CNBC's "Squawk Box" talking heads Mark Haines, David Faber, and Joe Kernan seem to go out of their way to make fun of her. I can hardly wait until next year when we can review Abby Jo's next pathetic yearly predictions. Maybe she should take up water dowsing.

- Black Blade


Econoclast (1/1/02; 12:56:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 67538)
Happy New Year to All--I feel 2002 is going to be VERY interesting!
Leigh--
You will be blown away by "The Creature". It is a history book that seems to be very well supported by quotes and sources.

The "new" me is trying to evolve to a higher plane during the recent past and going forward through life as I try to detach a little bit from the negativity and misguided attempts to "rule the world" by the elite who think that control and external power will bring them happiness.

The "old" me got very upset from reading that book however. It shows the power that we're all dealing with and puts a whole new and unpleasant light on recent history. Similar to GATA's claims, the book has never been refuted.

Hopefully, you will get it soon. I eagerly anticipate another person reading it. It contains knowledge that I wish everyone possessed.

Max Rabbitz (1/1/02; 12:52:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 67537)
Leigh
You better check on that order. I ordered my copy of "The Creature.." from Amazon and had to wait about 2 weeks (last summer) as they didn't have it in stock. I highly recommend it. I'll never look at history the same way again....or trust a banker. The last chapter deals with something that is more speculative (Council of Foreign Relations) and I have yet to be fully convinced of the magnitude of the conspiracy/plot/agenda or their ability to direct events toward that one world government. But as we have learned, there are Giants out there and we little hobbits best be aware of where those footsteps are headed.

P.S. Sorry, I'd send you mine but it's loaned out. It's also a book worth keeping for reference.

Mr Gresham (1/1/02; 12:47:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 67536)
Pizz, Mundell
http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/lux.html
Re: Mundell. As I remembered, this essay has about everything as far as publicly visible economics has analyzed about the Euro's arrival (which was in mid-98 with the currencies pegged together). But not the extra kickers about letting gold run, the marking of reserves to market, and the rapid flaming out of the dollar. Mundell stays within the understandable role as "Father of the Euro" and comments mostly upon its pending advantages, but not an inevitable triumph, and certainly not about any exalted role for gold.

The first half is a highly-educational summary of the Euro's prospects, but you may want to cut to the "(8.) Conclusion" if you're not up to reading the full-length.

Pizz -- been doing some counting myself lately, and it's this time of year when I get the first look at what a lot of clients have done with their businesses. Many are great at their professions, but lousy at running a business. Bottom line: they get by most years, instead of efficiently milking the franchise they hold, and then a bump hits one year and they go into crisis. (Maybe that's why they're calling me?)

Sounds to me your experience is much like my own, where, after listening to all the anecdotal accounting and high-wire walking they've done, you realize you only have the time and patience to ask yourself "Does this business work? (generate cash flow, and hang onto it) and then try to convey, gently or otherwise, your conclusions to the owner.

That's what leads you to such succinct views of these big money issues, and perhaps find yourself wondering who is the real owner (profit-taker) in this enterprise?

Yours is a fresh viewpoint here, and I hope you keep it. (And prosper beyond your expectations, as well, this year.)

Pizz (1/1/02; 12:02:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 67535)
Mr. Gresham, Sir.
Hope my "bean-counter" perspective hasn't upset your's or anyone else's line of thinking, but I tend to think a great deal in terms of liquidity and the positions, situations, (derivatives??) that may have a detrimental effect on the servicing of our debt. Bank runs and failures make me just a bit nervous.

Your post commenting on Japan's situation and our T-Bonds is right on IMO. I probably think in too simplistic of terms, but the US "debt" and position in the world economy can be very easily compared to a business that has been writing interest bearing checks (Bonds) with the ability to "greenmail" the holders (thanks Cobra(Too), I agree) into not cashing them. Only works in an expanding or stable economy. Not so great now. Japan has no realistic choice but to liquidate (our) paper assets. (It's interesting that they're 30 ton purchase of gold is public news. Are they starting to position to offset the losses when many are forced to "cash our checks", even at $.25 on the dollar. FOA's senario is still right on the money.)

All the volility, manipulations, lies, half-truths, etc.(IMO) by the US is to protect the "VALUE" of our debt. Eleven rate cuts (to stimulate the economy???), discontinuation of the 30 year, gold price control, etc.

My concern is why the US is letting the rest of the world line up like a creditors' committee in bankrupsy court. A forced devaluation of our debt appears to be comming.
Maybe "stubborn denial" (as Belgian suggested to me earlier in response to questions on devaluations), but I'm leaning more towards an unresolved "lynch pin" in the system
that if triggered, is more "horrific" than a much needed devaluation. IMO it just may be a 50 trillion +- (short??) interest rate derivative position that will go very bad - (it makes no difference whether they were "kickers" or just a bad hedge fund/bank gamble).

To you, Sir, and all - Have a great New Year. It has the potential to be one of the most "interesting" of our lives!!

Pizz



Leigh (1/1/02; 11:42:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 67534)
Max Rabbitz
Speaking of "The Creature from Jekyll Island," I placed an order for the book in mid-November from Barnes & Noble.com. It was only supposed to take a week or two to arrive, but after six weeks it still hasn't shown up. I can't wait to read it, if it ever gets here.

Leigh (1/1/02; 11:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 67533)
Max Rabbitz, Belgian, John Doe
Thanks for reading and thinking about this article. What a slam, huh? The reviewer didn't waste his time trying to be witty or constructively critical; this was a hate piece!

John Doe, I apologize for giving out the bad link earlier. I've been having trouble with my computer since last night, and I fervently hope it's because everyone in the family (including the four year old) has been installing new CD-ROMs onto it and not because the weird link caused a virus or something.

Ax, the Lord of the Rings swords were a huge hit at our house! I found them at the fourth store I went to and was told everywhere that they were a very popular Christmas toy.



Max Rabbitz (1/1/02; 10:59:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 67532)
Leigh's Village Voice Book Review
http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0201/dibbell.php
If I remember correctly the Village Voice is run by people who do not believe in a society based on private ownership. Money represents private ownership and therefore must be controlled and/or destroyed in the name of the "People " a.k.a. The State.

The review has the bitter sarcastic tone common to those striving for that higher moral level of a selfless totalitarian utopia. The second to the last sentence reveals the real problem that eats at the reviewer: "It's all right here in Cra$hmaker, just a wrong turn or two from the prosaic, universal insight that money rules the world."

I suspect the reviewer believes money is the root of all evil and that the right turn would be towards the abolition of money. I did find it interesting that the reviewer found G. Edward Griffin's "The Creature From Jekyll Island" to be "not quite entirely paranoid."

Happy New Year to All and good luck on those resolutions.



Belgian (1/1/02; 09:31:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 67531)
To the early 2002 birds....
Gresham : Don't mix the childish/selfish behaviour of eurocrats with the evolvement of confluenting euro-ideas (political). Duisenberg invited the UK / Sweden and Denmark to join. Repeat : *invited* not enforced them to do so in a hurry. Leaders and builders do have so many personal weaknesess and ambitions. A children's garden.
2002 Goal : More Gold activism, education and understanding on *VALUE*. Let us hope our loyal host can attrackt more Gold soldiers to the frontline with more and more Physical Gold in their fists.

Miner49er : Your (the) paradigm : paradox of making the dollar (reserve-currency) stronger, by printing more of them. Answered by CobraII's posting of B. Bonner.
And together with Leigh's posting of the anti-cra$hmaker's tirade : Conspiracy or not, but denial of the existance of a sickenly growing paper-factory, is exactly turning away from the cancer on the economic body. Nobody wants to spoil this great monopoly game. And monopoly it is !
Any messenger must be killed. Human nature since homo sapiens.

Uponroof : Don't remember in what year...but the japanese already had a bank run with huge queus waiting for the trucks to provide (distribute) fiat-yen-paper ! It happened already without 1929 pictures and global panic. And it is not only these japanese citizens who are stucked into the Tax/Debt death-knell. We only need to hear the sound of the dollar mousetrap before global panic will emerge at the benefit of Gold in fullest. All describtions of these situations add to our intuition that setting Gold free will inevitably be very explosive.
Sector : Please keep us informed on the (changing) attitudes of the general public in Japan, as a Japan semi insider ! Hope your health will be back to normal asap in 2002.

Thanks all for the 2002 wishes.

Very curious to see what the financial fraternities have decided on the US stockmarkets for january 2002 ? TA suggests new highs for the Dow ? Where does the paper factory want us (sorry,the more ignorant) to go swimming ?


Henri (1/1/02; 07:38:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 67530)
A Happy and prosperous New Year to all
At least let us keep what we have so far acquired.

Many thanks to our host and his benevolent indulgence of our collective ravings.

I await the return of FOA/Another to reveal more of the map and its reasonings.

May God bless all peoples everywhere with continued indulgence of their obsessions...may we all learn our purpose for being here.

Mr Gresham (1/1/02; 03:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 67529)
Makin on Japan in Depression
http://www.aei.org/eo/eo13626.htm
Spartacus, that was quite a tip -- thanks! This is fractional reserve in fractional reverse, isn't it? Death spiral, as Makin says. And the only "solid" (externally supported) thing they'll have to sell on the way down -- USTbonds...

It's musical chairs with the people's bank deposits -- negative $1 trillion bank net worth -- that's a trillion more BOJ will have to print. So if the people have (???) $10 trillion in their accounts, and want it out whole, individuals (only) can take it out now at 100%, or wait till they get a 90% (or less) prospect in three months. Why wait? The issue becomes, in a land of traditional cooperators, beating your neighbor to the cash...

Waverider (1/1/02; 02:28:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 67528)
A Golden 2002.....
May Gold shine bright in 2002
And Silver move to heights anew,
Let the Cartel suffer disintegration
As Gold and GATA see vindication!

A Happy New Year to All,
Waverider

Gandalf the White (1/1/02; 00:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 67527)
Hoping that EVERY Goldheart has a Golden 2002 !
As I see that the clock has struck Midnight at USAGOLD in Denver -- and as it nears that time in the GREAT PACIFIC NORTHWEST -- I and all the Hobbits are wishing MK and all the other USAGOLD Forum posters and lurkers, best wishes in 2002.
<;-)

RobotGuy (1/1/02; 00:14:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 67526)
Happy New Year!!!
Happy 2002 GoldBugs!!!!

Elwood (1/1/02; 00:02:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 67525)
Happy New Year, all
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20011229/988939.html

Argentina not a failure of free markets.

Snip:
Is Argentina really the victim of laissez-faire? The country did go far in privatizing and opening up to trade and investment in the early 1990s. It also established monetary stability by fixing the peso to the dollar. The result was an average per capita growth rate of 6.3% until 1995, when the country felt the effects of the Mexican peso devaluation. But, as in much of Latin America, the reforms of the first half of the decade did not continue into the second half.

Reform fatigue was accompanied by a dramatic growth in the size of government. Argentine economist Pablo Guido explains that in the past 10 years, the gross domestic product grew by about 50%, while public spending grew by about 90%. In terms of spending as a share of the economy, the size of government grew by 28%, and now equals more than one third of the national output.

End of Snip

But here's Krugman's view anyway (NYT requires registration).

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/01/opinion/01KRUG.html

Snip:
Here's how the story looks to Latin Americans: Argentina, more than any other developing country, bought into the
promises of U.S.-promoted "neoliberalism" (that's liberal as in free markets, not as in Ted Kennedy). Tariffs were slashed, state enterprises were privatized, multinational
corporations were welcomed, and the peso was pegged to the dollar. Wall Street cheered, and money poured in; for a while, free-market economics seemed vindicated, and its advocates weren't shy about claiming credit.

Then things began to fall apart. It wasn't surprising that the 1997 Asian financial crisis had repercussions in Latin America, and at first Argentina seemed less affected than its neighbors. But while Brazil bounced back, Argentina's recession just went on and on.

End of snip



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