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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/1/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
megatron
(11/1/01; 23:14:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 64535)
cool
Man, I'd love to be a member of a 'club' where Phyllis Diller was a 'chosen' member. That would be a smart group.
What a cute, nice little group it must be. I love the concept. And all for love too. I hope the members of the club have enough sorrow for a pathetic 'non member' like me to let me in if I can amass enough gold and silver. Hopefully some members will leave some gold and silver when they ascend to wherever they go when they spend eternity with Phyllis, and other 'super cool' people like her.
sourdough
(11/1/01; 22:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 64534)
SOROS"'George Soros is the pensive type who pounces on a trend when one develops"
November 2, 2001
NEW YORK
Soros taps stock picker Stack to run his empire
Appointment comes as Soros' trademark macro investing style makes comeback
GEORGE Soros looks like he is ready to get back into the game.
The legendary hedge fund investor has tapped one of the world's top stock pickers to run his empire and rebuild a depleted team at a time when Mr Soros' signature investment style is coming back in vogue.
Mr Soros, 70, appointed William Stack, 54, who once managed US$60 billion for German bank Dresdner RCM Global Investors, to be CEO of Soros Fund Management. He replaces Mr Soros' son Robert, 38, who took the job last year.
The seasoned global investor's forte is stocks. But Mr Stack is also well-versed in fixed income and currency trends, key to the global macro style that made and cost Mr Soros billions of dollars in recent years. Now Mr Stack will watch over US$11.5 billion in assets currently managed by the firm and outsiders like Stanley Druckenmiller, who quit as Mr Soros' chief investment officer last spring.
Mr Stack will also work closely with a new chief investment officer, who will likely manage an in-house portfolio.
Hedge funds are loosely regulated investment pools aimed mainly at wealthy individuals and pension funds. This year, such funds have outperformed the stock market, returning an average 2.2 per cent since January, when the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped more than 20 per cent.
'William Stack is a broad-gauge global investor and although he is a stock picker, he would be familiar with other trends,' said Richard Lannamann, who conducted the search for recruiter Russell Reynolds.
The two new hires - the chief investment officer has been picked, but not named - end Mr Soros' summer-long search for a successor and arrive just as his global macro investing style is paying off again after a few lean months.
'George Soros is the pensive type who pounces on a trend when one develops. He sees how changes in government can affect the global macro investment style and he's getting ready,' said Charles Gradante, president of the Hennessee Group, which advises hedge fund investors.
Last year Mr Soros reorganised his flagship Quantum Fund when losses in tech stocks forced him to rein in an aggressive style that earned him US$1 billion when he bet against the pound a decade ago. That move scuttled Britain's plans to join Europe's currency union and earned him the nickname 'the man who broke the pound'.
Now the tide has turned again as global trends are becoming clearer after the attacks in the US in September.
The real comeback will start when Soros Fund Management lets in new investors again. 'That's the key. Once he takes public money, that will be the sign he's getting back into the global macro game in a big way,' Mr Gradante said. - Reuters
ORO
(11/1/01; 22:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 64533)
Black Blade - Ship's people did not know
The crew and techies on the Liberty did not know what was being done with their signals collections. None of them would ever be able to understand it from their vantage point, had they known, they may have sabotaged their own operation.
I read the testimony you quote. I would not be surprised if such actions were taken by some Israelis against captured Egyptian POWs as they were taken by Arabs in each of the wars, as the Japanese did with US POWs, as Germans did with practically anybody they felt was a good defenseless target, as US forces did with the some 30,000 German POWs that were put in one of their own camps and starved to death on purpose, as the Soviets did with Poles and Germans, and as everyone who was ever involved in a war knows will happen.
At least on the Israeli side you find two pilots who refused to shoot defenseless survivors from the ship.
War is hell, for some it breaks the moral backbone.
As far as the illegality of the attack on the Liberty, I suggest that since Naval Attorney Jacobsen did not have a clue as to why the boat was there and what was being done with its signals, he can't presume to form a legal opinion about it.
Get real Mr Blade, allies spy on each other just as readilly as they spy on enemies. Outside of direct existential issues, spying is a simple commercial business open to the use of anyone who can afford the people involved, and they cost far more than a Senator (at least the Democrat ones). If you want some more Israeli spying to get mad about, take into consideration the rumor floated on the net a year or two back that Clinton's closed White House E-mail system was hooked directly to Israeli inteligence. Intel is dirtier than war and the hidden status of the operators is the simplest way to create opportunities for mischief. Power corrupts. Secret power corrupts more thoroughly and the corruption is seldom revealed. Behind any shield of secrecy are the skeletons of the innocent.
The moral posturing is unbefitting a real-politic discussion. If you want to moralize on war and secret operations of intel, it is only within the issue of how to police their actions that such moral questions have a place. Without this kind of third party policing of Intel operations you must accept that they would rob the taxpayer blind and plot for their own purposes. One should expect that their activity is often enough focused on covering up their last batch of misdeeds and errors rather than collecting and analyzing actual info on actual enemies.
The survivors of the USS Liberty are focusing on the wrong line of reasoning. If they want to understand the circumstances of what had happened to them they would have to start by putting away any preconception of their leaders and upper echelon career people as being "upright patriotic citizens". They can't be such. If they were, they would have altered the structure and operation of their departments and asked congress to restrict their resort to secrecy and eliminate their immunity from criminal and civil prosecution. They would also have installed a strong independent ombudsman and review system for the secret services. That they did not do so is evidence enough that their honesty is at the very least suspect, and in any case "upright patriotic citizens" is not quite what they are. Not here, not in Israel, not in Europe, and definitely not anywhere else on earth. Their very function precludes it.
Black Blade
(11/1/01; 22:13:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 64532)
Consumers, Factories Struggle
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011101/business_economy_dc_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending fell at its fastest pace in more than 14 years in September and the factory sector was pitched into its deepest slump since the 1990-91 recession in October as the economic shockwaves from the Sept. 11 attacks proved more damaging than feared. The Commerce Department said consumer spending sank 1.8 percent in September -- double economists' forecasts -- after a 0.3 percent gain in August. It was the first decline in the economy's most important prop in 2-1/2 years, and its steepest fall since Jan. 1987. Personal incomes were flat even though tax rebate checks continued to land in American mailboxes.
The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) said its monthly gauge of factory activity plunged to 39.8 in October -- its lowest level since Feb. 1991 -- from 47.0 in September, and far worse than forecasts for a 44.3 reading. It's another nail in the coffin for the economy,'' said Oscar Gonzalez, economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. ``There is no silver lining. There is nothing to grab onto to suggest the economy is ready to climb out of a hole.'' A number under 50 signals contracting manufacturing activity; the NAPM index has held below that watershed since August
2000.
The day's numbers were a grim prelude to Friday's crucial nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show the economy shed another 289,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent from 4.9 percent. Economists' greatest fear is that rising unemployment while the nation is fighting a war in Afghanistan and reeling from a bioterrorism scare at home will cause consumers to further scale back their spending, driving the economy into an ever deeper slump. ``Clearly, an unemployed person will have a difficult time taking advantage of lower rates for new purchases,'' said Tom Sowanick, chief fixed-income strategist at Merrill Lynch Government Securities.
Black Blade: The Recession is set to deepen even more. Under current valuations I would say that the equities markets should fall by at least another 60%. Gold and Silver asset protection is still quite cheap. This recession will be a long painful drawn out affair. Warren Buffett and George Soros also have stated that this will be a long severe recession. In a word - "GRIM"
Black Blade
(11/1/01; 21:56:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 64531)
Attack on USS Liberty - State Sponsored Terrorism
ORO,
It would appear that your justification for the Israeli sponsored murders of unarmed and defenseless US sailors (even in life rafts) is based on some unsubstantiated claim of aid to Israel's enemies. That is the very same reasoning that al Qaeda and the Taliban are using to justify the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. It is the US taxpayer whose funds are transferred to the "enemy" from the US government. Therefore your reasoning appears to justify recent event as well. I find that rather bizarre.
The government of Israel has lied about the circumstances of the USS Liberty assault ever since, telling a story markedly different from that told by American survivors, even those involved in the intelligence gathering activities.. Congress has refused to question Israel's demonstrably false account, even though the State Department's own analysis finds the Israeli story to be untrue. Yet the most pressing question remaining from that infamy is not whether the attack was deliberate. That was settled long ago for most reasonable people. The question is why Israel risked its relationship with America by killing American seaman on the high seas.
As far as reports of POW executions, the following account by Israeli eyewitnesses is quite telling. According to eyewitness accounts by Israeli officers and journalists, the Israeli Army - the army that claims to hold itself to a higher moral standard than other armies - executed as many as 1,000 Arab prisoners during the 1967 war.
Historian Gabby Bron wrote in the Yediot Ahronot in Israel that he witnessed Israeli troops executing Egyptian prisoners on the morning of June 8, 1967, in the Sinai town of El Arish. Bron reported that he saw about 150 Egyptian POWs being held at the El Arish airport where they were sitting on the ground, densely crowded together with their hands held on the back of their necks. Every few minutes, Bron writes, Israeli soldiers would escort an Egyptian POW from the group to a hearing conducted by two men in Israeli army uniforms. Then the man would be taken away, given a spade, and forced to dig his own grave.
"I watched as (one) man dug a hole for about 15 minutes," Bron wrote. "Afterwards, the (Israeli military) policeman told him to throw the shovel away, and then one of them leveled an Uzi at him and shot two short bursts, each of three or four bullets." Bron says he witnessed about ten such executions, until the grave was filled. Then an Israeli Colonel threatened him with a revolver, forcing him to leave the area.
The Liberty attack was a war crime
The attack on USS Liberty was itself a war crime. US Navy Commander Walter Jacobsen, a Navy Legal Officer then doing graduate work at George Washington University, conducted an extensive legal analysis of the attack. His conclusion, reported in the Winter, 1986, Naval Law Review, was that several aspects of the attack violated provisions of the Geneva Conventions -- war crimes. Specifically, Commander Jacobsen found that the attack was not legally justified, that it constituted an act of aggression under the United Nations Charter, that the use of unmarked aircraft, the wanton destruction of life rafts in the water, the jamming of international radio distress frequencies, and the failure of the torpedo boat commanders to render immediate assistance to a disabled and helpless enemy were all violations of international law.
I guess if you are one of the "chosen people" there are no consequences for war crimes.
Sources:
"Attack on the USS Liberty: An edited version of SRH-256" is a compilation of several vital documents related from both sides of the controversy.
"New Evidence Shows Israel's Attack on USS Liberty Far More Vicious Than Thought." Armed Forces Journal International, January 1980, p. 18.
Anderson, Jack and Drew Person. Syndicated Column, "...the action was planned in advance." The Washington Post, June 16, 1967.
Borne, John, "The USS Liberty: Dissenting History vs. Official History"
Clifford, Clark, "Counsel to the President" (Random House) 1991
Ennes Jr., James, "Assault on the Liberty," (Random House, 1980), is a "Notable Naval Book" selection of the U.S. Naval Institute and was "editors choice" when reviewed in The Washington Post.
Ennes Jr., James M., "USS Liberty: Did Israel commit one war crime to hide another," The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, May/June 1996
Green, Stephen, "Taking Sides: America's Secret Relations with a Militant Israel," New York: William Morrow, 1984.
Jacobsen, Lieutenant Commander Walter L., JAGC, USN. "A Juridical Examination of the Israeli Attack on the USS Liberty" Naval Law Review, Winter, 1986, Volume 36. Published by the U.S. Naval Justice School, Newport, Rhode Island.
Rusk, Dean. As I Saw It, W.W.Norton, 1990. Former secretary of state calls attack deliberate. Says U.S. rejected Israeli explanation because it was not believable.
Smith, Richard K., "The Violation of the Liberty," Naval Instutute Proceeding, June, 1978
U.S. National Security Council Meeting, minutes of NSC Special Committee meeting 6:30 PM, Friday, June 9, 1967, in White House Cabinet Room. Notes by Harold H. Saunders. Filed LBJ Library, Mandatory Review Case #NLJ 83-172, Document #100. Clark Clifford: "Inconceivable that it was accident." Rusk: "Senators are outraged." Battle: "Incomprehensible."
U.S. Navy, Office of the Judge Advocate General. Transcript of Navy Court of Inquiry into attack on the USS Liberty. 1967. Document includes more than 700 pages of testimony and supporting files. It is available to the public on request.
and many, many, many more references available.
BTW, Israel is not a democracy. They are allegedly a representative republic.
Chris Powell
(11/1/01; 21:33:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 64530)
Howe case goes to hearing on Monday
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/911
Howe case goes to hearing in federal court in
Boston on Monday:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/911
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
auspec
(11/1/01; 21:31:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 64529)
And Heeeeerrrreeeeesssssssss..................
Black Blade!!!!!
megatron
(11/1/01; 21:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 64528)
Hmmmmm.....
Why did the gold/silver under the ruble HAVE to be accessed and moved THIS WEEK? Any Wild guess's? It is getting so sickeningly obvious. Tick Tock Tick Tock.........
Netking
(11/1/01; 21:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 64527)
Whatever happened to 'Buy gold'?
An interesting Gold piece from Money Central. The key points being made that the USD(ALL of them!)have been holding gold back to an extent. Look out next year Dines is quoted on as the proverbial begins to hit the spinning blades in earnest first in Argentina, Brazil and affecting all of Latin America, including Mexico. . . then watch gold cook. Look for the moment as a late last chance to get your position, the sceptics will be surprised what gold will do next year. - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Snippets:
"Throughout much of history, gold has been a place of refuge from financial uncertainty. Many Germans treasured gold during the hyperinflation of the 1920s. During World War II, people fleeing the Nazis used gold coins to pay for help in their escapes. When inflation took off in the late 1970s in the United States, people rushed to buy gold, which soared to more than $850 an ounce in 1980. For many people, gold is portable, virtually indestructible and universal as a store of wealth so, now, with uncertainty raging, why hasn't gold taken off again?
The obvious answer (The big bad dollar-Netking): Unlike the 1970s, when inflation hit nearly 13%, the dollar remains the world's strongest and most sought-after currency in spite of economic slowdown, lower interest rates and even terrorist attacks. Even though the Federal Reserve has pumped billions of dollars in liquidity into the economy, starting last January, we haven't seen a whiff of inflation. One reason we haven't seen inflation this year is that much of that newly created money merely offset the trillions of dollars that melted away in the stock market decline of the past 18 months.
If you define inflation as a phenomenon of "too much money creation" or "too much money chasing too few goods," you're faced with this reality. The world is more awash in goods than in dollars and consumers who are badly shaken by terrorist attacks and anthrax scares. With little fear that the dollar may tumble badly, there's no reason to turn to gold as a safe haven.
*** Dines: Take advantage of the uptrend ***
Dines, who proclaimed himself "The Original Gold Bug" back in the 1960s, made his reputation as among the first to predict that gold would be freed its then government-fixed price of $35 an ounce and move substantially higher. Then, he predicted the price of gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Average would cross. They did. Gold soared to $850 in early 1980 as the Dow was tumbling down to nearly 750.
Dines sees a major recovery in gold prices during the next big currency crisis. He sees it erupting first in Argentina or Brazil some time next year and affecting all of Latin America, including Mexico. He expects that the response to a currency problem will be similar to the 1997 flight to gold when Asian investors turned to the precious metal as their economies and markets collapsed around them. But Dines strongly favors gold shares instead of bullion, because gold shares pay dividends and tend to move ahead of the price of the metal itself.
What's holding the price of gold flat is the relative strength of the dollar itself, Dines says, and that precludes a major rise in gold in this country. But his newsletter shows charts of gold prices denominated in Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, South African Rands and Indian rupees. In all of those those currencies, gold clearly has been rising -- but so has the U.S. dollar. And you can earn interest, albeit low, on dollar deposits.
*** Ruff: Prepare for the worst ***
Howard Ruff became a regular on talk shows and in newspapers thanks to his 1977 best seller, "How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years," which sold more than 3 million copies. Ruff's centerpiece advice was to buy gold at $125 an ounce, which was great advice because gold was about to take off. . . . he's willing to predict that "in the long run, gold bought at today's prices is going to be worth a lot of money at some time in the future." When pressed about how far away that future might be, he said, "Not tomorrow, or next week, but perhaps one, two or three years from now, it has the potential to be worth $2,000 an ounce."
auspec
(11/1/01; 20:50:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64526)
Crashmaker
"The Constitution integrates market and state- by mandating silver and gold coin as the only official money. And the Constitution ******seperates bank and state****** - by prohibiting the govt both from emmitting paper currency itself, and from granting special legal privileges to private banks that emit such currency. Today, however, politicians and bankers have stood the Constitution on its head, incestuously coupling bank and state, and estranging market and state, by foisting off on America an irredeemable paper currency generated by a corporative-state banking cartel!"
"Usually, the most profitable form of monetary manipulation's what my opponents {Dominic speaking} call monetary policy, but I describe as **legalized counterfeiting****: the ability of politicians and their clients to obtain, under the pretenses of law, new supplies of money w/o investing significant amounts of physical resources or labor in the production of that money."
Comment: My emphasis ****** added above.
The Constitution mandates seperation of church and state? Actually the Constitution says that the state shall stay out of the church.
The Constitution seperates bank{!!!} and state!!! Seems like a tad of confusion abounds.
For FEMA--- This excerpt from this book is entirely FICTIONAL, this discussion is entirely theoretical, and in no way pertains to any form of current US reality.
For non-FEMA's-- Read the book!
Ray Patten
(11/1/01; 20:21:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 64525)
Access to quotes on mrci.com?
http://www.mrci.com
As of a short time ago, I need a ID and a password to access
the quote link to mrci.com. How do I get that ID and password?
auspec
(11/1/01; 20:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 64524)
Uncle Harry Has More.....
"Mkt Manipulation is a cancer. It eats away at the body politic & body societal, sanctifying lies & violations. Command economies are what the Soviet Union & all socialist, communist nations did/do & we in the West rightly condemned. As Bill Murphy of GATA says: "why did we bother to defeat communism, if we now practice it?" The US is an increasingly less free economy, moving fast toward a Command Economy, with govt intervening around the clock. It has been going on, increasingly, for years. It's now extreme. Has it reached the point of no return? Too late to return? Think about it."
"What can U do? Speak out for some of the principles we've articulated in Our Mission. Be a contrary investor. If the US$ & US stk mkts are being rigged, watch for chart indications when/if the fix loses its momentum. Windows of opportunity. Be more flexible than before. When the fixers are on a roll, bet with the house, or step aside, or, make your portfolio a homemade hedge fund. Or buy into one of the hedge funds of the kind we like. But watch for the changes. Ditto re gold, in reverse. Speak out against mkt fixing, but also invest with the fix in view. Take profits often before the fixers snatch them away from U. Even in gold; then buy back on dips. I do. Use stops. Outsmart the manipulators by following their slimy money trail."
"One blessing of the Internet is it "publishes" news & views the mass media isn't allowed to print/tell. Some of the views are cranky & kooky but many are revealing & probing. U have to decide which is which. But tis better YOU act as editor & censor, not the mass media deciding what they'll let U see/read. Let's hope govts don't impose political censorship on the Net as they already do on Net porn. Don't count it out! They could claim "it's not in the national interest in wartime" in any nation. It's happened with the press a hundred times. (This is part of a series on Freedom) (while still allowed)."END
Comment: I needed that encouragement from HSL, time to start speaking out! Thanks for getting me started, cb2.
This post is also an endorsement of GATA and LeMetropole Cafe from which it came. Talk about speaking out! Has anyone else noticed how the 'reality' that GATA now sees and openly comments on, has much less 'rose color' than what was seen a year or two ago? What a trail this all has become. The magnitude of the monster we face......
uponroof
(11/1/01; 19:33:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 64523)
ORO
"The best thing for the investor, both big and small, is for the SEC to be shuttered before it manages to destroy the US markets entirely."
***********************
Amen ORO. It appears this change is designed to increase the influence of majors and reduce the volatility potential of juniors. A clever way to discourage 'exubberance' in this sector.
Nothing new.
Ever since the 'ignorant' American middle class entered the stock market en mass we have been forced to watch this second rate con game which continues now without end. The Stock Market is the American economy, the American economy is the safeguard of the global standard. Nothing is sacred given these stakes.
This gold mining bookeeping adjustment is just another instance of manipulative intervention designed to implement the 'greater good for the ignorant majority'. Mr Pitts, et al, should be cannonized for their services to the great unwashed.
I believe I can safely say that intervention today, under Bush, has surpassed that of the Clinton regime, much as I hate to admit it. GW's excuses include an inherited 'strong dollar' mess, Greenspan sans exubberance, the inevitable recession, and now terrorism. Most were issues he knew were coming but failed to tackle. Bush has showed his colors as a follower not a leader in his weak denial approach. The ability to affect public opinion, and implement change escapes him. He is a 2nd class reactionary manager who consults with those around him too much. Far from proactive.
Pathetic as it is, I am surprised this critically flawed policy of intervention, in all markets, suspends on without reckoning.
On the one hand I am encouraged knowing, as Richard Russell states: "Markets always do what they're supposed to do but not necessarily when we expect it." On the other hand we are witnessing intervention as never before, effortlessly changing the ultimate conclusion Mr Russell claims sacred.
Yes, a bad ending seems inevitable. But the date is ever moving forward, defying time and ever surprising those which hopefully understand, and continue to cling to the truth. Thanks for your thoughts.
********************************************************
Pandagold-Thanks for getting back on this. I would, regardless of your concern, appreciate instances of innocents being slaughtered intentionally by Americans or British in this conflict. Please list those instances similar to that of the Taliban's indiscriminate and intentional executions of civilians (both foreign and domestic if possible). Thanks.
CoBra(too)
(11/1/01; 18:35:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 64522)
"Uncle" Harry (Schultz) finds the SM action hard to believe -
- and so do i. In view of recession- depression economic news the markets rally as if there's no tomorrow - as all eyes are glued to the day after the tsunami, when the sun shines again. As it sure will, albeit on a fundamentally changed scenario.
The abundancy of reserve $'s ends at the redundancy of the reserve currency. A phenomenon, which comes with overuse - rendering the ongoing "abuse" as obsolete.
HS never has been as outspoken on manipulation before - here's a snippet , which you can read full lenght at the cafe:
"Eg, the US govt is on a course of massive manipulations, the most blatant in democratic history. Its blatancy helps to mask it, prevents the innocent (dim?) public from realizing they no longer have free mkts. Eg, on Oct 26, US mkts rose in the face of devastating bad news, economic & terrorwise. But US govt set up (after the 1987 crash) The Working Group on Financial Mkts (also known as the Plunge Protection Team) to secretly intervene in stock mkts whenever mkts start tanking, or are likely to in the face of horrible news. Thus, on Oct 26, as they do often of late, the US govt covertly bought S&P futures contracts, pushed the mkt up."
As far as i can see, the Bush admin didn't find a way out of the economic (amongst other) traps and will have to prolong this charade until it meets its destiny of reality.
... mesmerized by the spectacle of clearly visible fraudulent interventions by governement and their international crony agencies, i'm a wee bit reluctant to play any game and just hold on to my gold.
- manipulated too - cb2
Netking
(11/1/01; 17:54:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 64521)
Ramadan - II
PS, I meant to add this quote of Condoleezza's from the BBC site to the previous post (64520):
"We do not believe that al-Qaeda or the Taleban are likely to be ones who are going to be observant of any kind of rules of civilisation"
Condoleezza Rice
US National Security Advisor
(Kind of say's it all - Netking)
Netking
(11/1/01; 17:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 64520)
China to launch gold exchange this month (PRC demand est. 210 tons)
http://www.chinaonline.com/topstories/011101/1/C01110110.asp
China is expected to launch a gold exchange in Shanghai later this month, according to sources in Hong Kong, but it will only allow about 100 domestic firms to engage in spot trading of gold.
Sources in Hong Kong's banking sector said the exchange would initially be set up in Shanghai, together with a foreign currency exchange system. It is to be launched by Nov. 28. However, the report said that some believe the November launch will simply serve as a test of the system, with the formal launch set for January.
. . . according to estimates from the World Gold Council, China's demand for gold will be approximately 210 tons this year.
------------------------------------------------------------
They called their bluff:
Meanwhile back in The White House, the US has announced that air strikes on Afghanistan will not be suspended during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, ending weeks of speculation. Several Islamic leaders have voiced fears that a continuation of the raids during Ramadan - a month long period of fasting for Muslims around the world - could cause major unrest in their countries.
But US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice told a press briefing in Washington the US "could not afford" a pause in its campaign and that the bombings would continue . . . "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_1633000/1633140.stm
BR549
(11/1/01; 17:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 64519)
uponroof 'Slaughter of innocents'
Pandagold (msg#: 64512)
Why would the allies wish to waste a bomb on a non-military target? These weapons are very expensive. uponroof has it right. There is no such thing of the bombing of innocents going on. Sometimes these murdering terrorist cowards hide under their women's skirts and in religious buildings but I know of no instance where the Allies bombed them there on purpose, do you?
There is collateral damage that sometimes results from misguided laser bombs, but there is no policy now and there has never been a policy by the U.S. or the Allies as to the purposeful destruction of "innocents". If I am wrong and there is such a policy, please identify it to me (from a credible source, of course, not some flake that posts on the Internet).
Terrorists don't need to be captured, they don't need a fair trial, they have no US or UK styled "rights", they don't need to sign a peace treaty, they don't need their motives to be understood, they need to die.
The term the "slaughter of innocents" is offensive to me. Especially since the bodies have not all been identified at the WTC. The term has more to do with the excuse of not doing anything vs. the Allies using any means at their disposal to destroy these murderers and their supporters. So please provide me a link. I hate dusty books because they have nothing to do with the first war of the 21st Century.
Thank you for your input.
BR549
Mr Gresham
(11/1/01; 17:27:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 64518)
Dirty Dozen?
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/offering-page/index%3Dfixed-price%26field-offering-type%3Dused%26field-asin%3D1574882856%26field-status%3Dopen%26size%3D25%26rank%3D%2Bprice/qid%3D1002305267/sr%3D9-7/ref%3Dsr%5F9%5F2%5F7/102-8029928-7352930
In an era of Information Warfare, it is an honor to be serving in a frontline unit with you all. (That tough Sgt. Oro can be a hard one to please at times! But he's kept us alive many times. ;)
I feel like we're in some forgotten unit, cut off at the Russian Front in the dead of winter, burrowed into foxholes, with nothing but our (Internet) radios and a few golden bullets apiece. (Will our oft-frozen weapons still work under attack?) Will Spring come before we've all frozen to death?
It's a tough life, but consider the alternative. (Unarmed and unknowing peasants in some village, plowed under by a surprise armored attack...)
(Link is to "The Forgotten Soldier", by Guy Sajer, a great, great account by a Frenchman in the German army -- hope I still have my paperback from 1972, 'cause it looks expensive on Amazon.)
Netking
(11/1/01; 17:09:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 64517)
Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East
http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/map.htm
To further illustrate some of what ORO said in #64515 (quite a reasonable analysis), click on some of the regional players in the link map, you'll see the small land mass concerned comes with a sting in the tail.
In "The Art Of War" you learn the weak are picked off, but strength and the ability/will to use that strength when really necessary are a deterrent.
ORO
(11/1/01; 17:02:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 64516)
uponroof - SEC destroying accounting
The SEC is once again attacking useful information in favor of rigid fictional accounting standards. A little more of this and GAAP will simply be the second book that nobody looks at but for accounting sticklers and automated computer screeners.
Because the SEC defines the "official" version of reported information, making the books not reflect industry realities fools the trusting souls of the small investors, now less likely to invest in companies trying to fund a feasability study because the exploration expenditure is not balanced with an estimate of the value of what was found till all risk in the valuation estimate is gone. Thus giving the advantage back to larger companies and sophisticated analysts who can pick up highly attractive unproven reserves that are going to be booked as "0" because of the SEC.
The best thing for the investor, both big and small, is for the SEC to be shuttered before it manages to destroy the US markets entirely.
ORO
(11/1/01; 16:25:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64515)
Pandagold - Israel's non-aquiesence
I really don't like to spend my time on Israeli policies but I will put this forward so that you should understand.
Arrafat and the leadership of his collection of political and terrorist organizations are practicing the same double-speak they have always practiced. They speak of peace to Americans, while operating terror attacks with their hands. While they demand Israelis come to negotiate, they are completely unwilling to change positions. Meaning that "negotiations" are the unilateral disarmament of Israeli positions - Israelis give under US pressure, and Arrafat demands more.
Though I can't say that Sharon's occupation of West Bank cities has much to commend it in either results or costs (political and human), it is still an attempt to do in the Palestinian Authority's areas exactly what the US is doing in Afghanistan, but at a much lower level of intensity. Unlike the US trying to depose the Taliban, Israel is not trying to take down Arrafat despite his giving succor to terrorists, some of which are part of his organization - like the PFLP that assasinated the Israeli minister. Arrafat's message in this action was that those who do not acquiesce to his demands on the Israeli negotiating team will be killed.
Israel's significance to the US:
Israel is the only friendly port in the Middle East where the government and the people both broadly support the US. It is also America's local arsenal of last resort. This was a critical role during the cold war, and is just as critical today because of the rickety footings of Gulf oil despots who can lose control in a matter of days.
Israel is the only democracy in the area with an actual civilian rule. It is also one of the few broadly secular countries in the region.
Israel has a very advanced military technology that successfully competes with the US. Better it be on our side than someone elses.
The other significant point is that Israel at the end of its rope means nuclear war and the end of oil production in the gulf as we know it.
Finally, the question should be reversed:
"Why is a group of dictatorships given so much American support against their own people, and against America's own natural ally?"
"Why is that bunch of despots who fund and operate terrorist campaigns against the US getting American support in pressuring Israel?"
"If they are such "friends" why are the Saudis making demands and putting preconditions for not opposing the US in its self defense? Why are they unwilling to help? Why is the US coddling them in spite of their displayed malevolent intentions towards both the US and Israel?"
The answer is obvious: "they sit on a sea of oil".
Why do we care about that?
Because it is the cheapest oil to extract, and thus the companies that extract it will have the most steady and risk free profit margins available in any business. It is no coincidence that Exxon has the greatest consistent profit margin of any company on earth. It is these people who profit from exclusive access to Saudi oil that send representatives to populate this and prior government administrations and the bulk of the career positions at the State Department and in the intelligence community.
Because of these steady and fat profits, it is important for bankers to retain these customers and assist them politically and financially.
In order to retain both access and exclusivity, the "friendship" of the controllers of the oil is so important, as is the need to keep these particular "friends" in power. When they stab you in your back you just silently take out the knife and ask them whom you should stab with it.
That is the long and short of it.
Max Rabbitz
(11/1/01; 16:24:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64514)
Hello Pandagold
The gold reference was to show how it wasn't even considered in the valuation of Afghanistan's resources……at least not in public. It is as you say "small potatoes." I think I understand the game being played. Gold is the enemy of the banking system and must be controlled as paper profits are gained. It is because I have such little faith in the sustainability of this system that I am interested in gold. Owning physical gold seems the best way to protect yourself during these coming "interesting times."
Drugs..... Gang wars and shoot outs are related to the illegal nature of the drug trade not the relative value to gold. I think the war on drugs is misplaced. I tend towards Libertarian and would allow my fellow citizens to risk their health and happiness if they so chose, but also suffer the consequences. Money would be better spent on education and treatment. A right of employers to know the drug habits of their employees should be considered. The current system profits only sociopaths and the forces of chaos.
What do I think the U.S. establishment is doing with Iraq? Messing up. I thought Iraq was supposed to allow inspections? They lost the war and agreed to it.
I heard that the number one rule in the Middle East is to never wound your enemy and let him live……he must be killed or he will come back after you. It would have been better for the Iraqi people. But then I have little hope this region will be able to emerge from the dangerous delusions of that 7th century cult.
Israel is located in an unfortunate neighborhood and it is up to them to fight or die. However, it is far from true that Israel "when it is asked to comply with one simple request - the first ever made… can stick its finger up to its benefactor….and get away with it." Many requests have been made to give back territory (Sinai and West Bank) and much was offered. Israeli tanks stopped at the Suez canal when they could have had Cairo. Restraint was asked after each attack on civilians at bus stops, café's, dance clubs ......
The U.S. is blamed by Arabs for not being even-handed when what they really want is for the U.S. to get rid of Israel for them. I don't see a way out. There will be war. It is the "will of Allah." Get some more gold.
All nations and empires want assured access to natural resources. The U.S. offers to pay for them at the world market price and allows all other countries to purchase at the same price. It is not the only option.
Best Wishes
Old Yeller
(11/1/01; 15:46:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64513)
ORO
The golden treasure of the internet,0.99999.Thanks for your time and insights.
Pandagold
(11/1/01; 15:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64512)
Uponroof 'Slaughter of innocents'
Uponroof Thank you for your kind words. I did what you asked, I went back and read the post of goldfan. As a psychologist myself I could discuss at some length the conditions of sanity, and insanity. However, this is not the place to do it, as you will appreciate.
As for the question you ask about me naming any incidents in which either the US or Britain has been responsible for wholesale unnecessary slaughter of 'innocents', surely you are not serious?
I know you mean well, and because it is so abhorrent to you it is something perhaps you shut out of your mind when these events, and there have been many, are perpetrated by your own country.
Rather than me start listing them, just stop and reflect, you don't have to go reaching back into musty old history books.
ORO
(11/1/01; 15:28:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 64511)
PH in LA and Black Blade - Last word on USS Liberty
The attack on the Liberty was done on the 4th day of the 6 day war of 67. The ship did electronic mapping of radio signals by radio triangulation, which allowed analysts (in a Cyprus intel station) to create maps of Israeli troop positions which were automatically sent to Nasser via radio and cable, both of which were monitored by Israel (the Egyptian codes were broken). The order to transfer the intel came from Johnson himself at the behest of Oil company reps within both CIA and State.
As anyone who was at the UN Security Council meetings during the war knows, the Egyptian delegation was unwilling to sign a cease fire till the 8th of June when the info compiled from the USS Liberty's surveillance was stopped. A couple of hours after the ship was incapacitated, the flow of info stopped, resulting in Egypt's UN ambassador El-Kony crying in the chamber and no longer insisting on complete Israeli withdrawal as precondition for a cease fire.
That is the significance of the attack on the USS Liberty.
The people on the boat did not have a clue to what purpose their intel was being put.
The stories of the POW "war crimes" were much exagerated but had some truth to them. I think (I definitely do not know for certain) that the POWs involved were an Egyptian field command found with precise maps of Israeli troop positions and routes they took to travel between them. The Egyptians would not have been killed because the info they could provide as to where the maps came from was far too valuable, a completely crucial existential problem for Israel.
A few sources to read are:
A. and L. Cockburn, "Dangerous Liason", Harper Collins 1991
W. C. Eveland "Ropes of Sand", Norton 1980
Anything written by John Loftus
Moshe Dayan and a few others leaked a long stream of bits and pieces out to the Israeli press as to why they ordered the attack.
You may be able to find some of the cronies of the people involved on the US side, like Kermit Roosevelt, or what's his name Copeland. They all were reputed to leak like a sieve.
Pandagold
(11/1/01; 15:00:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 64510)
Max Rabbitz: Afghanistan and Iraq
Max Rabbitz: Why do ask about Gold in Afghanistan? Gold is 'small potatoes' in the great scheme of things. The total capitalisation of all the world's gold mines is only about $35billion. The market is well and truly cornered as most of it is owned or controlled by TPTB. (or hadn't you noticed?)
Sitting somewhere in those mountains of Northern Afghanistan is a store of drugs with a street value of around $25 billion. Do you think some raggy-arsed down trodden Afghan 'owns' and controls that little lot. Where do you think lies the greatest profit - gold, or drugs? It isn't gold peddlers that are being shot down in police shoot outs and gang wars in the streets of the US.
As for Iraq and oil, what do you think the US establishment is doing? Is Iraq free to do what it wants with its oil, or anything else for that matter? Where do you think the next move is after Afghanistan?
I use 'establishment' for the reason that from where I sit the US 'elected' government
is little more than a puppet regime. Sad but true - and Britain is no better.
You don't think so? Then pray tell me how a small Middle East country of about six million - small by any standards, can stick its finger up to its benefactor and 'friend', supposedly the world's greatest military power, and which gives it over $4billion a year of its tax paying citizens hard earned money, when it is asked to comply with one simple request - the first ever made over the many years it has been receiving the hand outs, and gets away with it?
Other larger countries have been pummelled into the earth, or strangled by sanctions for far less. Yet the American people have to see their 'elected' government take the snub, and the finger, without even stopping one dollar of the handout.
One day the American people, hopefully, will wake up and find who its 'friends' really are.
Back to gold. Gold will move when it is in the interests of TPTB for it to do so. I have mentioned when that is likely to be on more than one occasion, and on that I don't waver.
Is this a good time to buy? If one has the funds,the nerve, and not addicted to only fishing on the very bottom, it is as good as any to be acquiring on dips.
Tommy P
(11/1/01; 14:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 64509)
HERE WE GO ARGENTINA!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO_HDPhTNSU1GIFJ1
no comment
ORO
(11/1/01; 14:53:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 64508)
Belgian - the upside down view of oil
All value is found in the consumer's use for an item. Without Western automobiles, chemical plants, and most of all the knowledge of how to build them and what to make in them, the oil is a useless sticky poison.
It is possible to produce wealth from it, but oil becomes wealth only when it is needed in order to move a car or derive nylon. The latter is only worth something because of the shirt that can be made of it.
The oil does not have an intrinsic value. It is not desired for its own sake.
It is replaceable with many synthetic and naturally occuring substitutes and this caps its ultimate long term relative price as measured in consumer goods. By raising prices above the long term values OPEC simply lost market share and drove the oil producing countries into near bankruptcy after they had invested heavily in increasing production. Indonesia went in hock to a level of 7 times the export value of its oil production every time oil prices rose. This was a major contributor to the country's dire straits in the Asian economic "flu" (at the bottom of the contraction Indonesia had lost 1/6 th of its economic activity, and has yet to recover half way after 4 years). Saudi itself, lost market share from nearly 1/3 of world output at the peak prior to the "embargo" to 4% at the bottom of the glut of 1985-6.
They drove the world's oil producers into a colossal debt trap of unprecedented proportions and caused a massive speculative accumulation of 5-6 billion barrel equivalents funded by some $200 billion of global debt (about 1/2 trillion in today's dollars). As this most massive of non-war hoarding experiences in history was brought about, we got the most crowded trade ever, and its unwinding did not end till 1995.
Why all this? Because of the mystical belief, shared by FOA, of oil having an intrinsic "wealth" value somehow not recognized by the markets on a normal functioning basis. As if people did not trade real goods and services with each other THROUGH the financial system rather than trading with it, exchanging current real wealth for FUTURE real wealth THROUGH the system, not only exchanging current goods for other current goods. The latter is only possible in a zero or negative sum society such as Saudi where economic investment is impossible because of political interference and social uncertainty.
Horatio
(11/1/01; 14:40:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 64507)
Peace = no oil
In My Humble Opinion....Saudi Arabia is at risk, the Kingdom is corrupt and ready for a Coup. Royal family sending money out of the country.Income per capita declines from over $20,000 to just over $7000 ,the result of pilfering by the "Royal" Family.Over 6000 princes have a standard of living to accomadate.Its good to be a "Prince".Israel sees the risk and prepares for peace.
No need to stir up trouble to keep the U.S.involved.
The U.S. prepares for new oil supplier .The Russians will provide military manpower and sell Caspian oil to the U.S.instead of Saudi.Russia revives its economy and gets what it always wanted ,Eastern oil.The U.S. will buy oil from the Russians.
Isn't it curious that prospects for peace occur when Saudi
is taken out of the picture.Seems to me trouble makers in the mid east had a motive to keep the U.S engaged to protect Israel and U.S. oil interests .Take away Saudi Arabia and no more reason to make trouble.The U.S. interest in Mid East will decline and bring on better Arab relations.Trouble maker Sharon must make peace,without U.S.economic interest at risk Israel must go it alone.His problem is Arafat is the only non-radical he can talk to ,but he hasn't demonstrated any willingness or power to enforce any peace agreement.
The times they are a changin
Kodie
(11/1/01; 14:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 64506)
"Due to the events of 9-11..."
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barron/barron110101.html
A very good article. Not everything is caused by 9/11.
"As divined by The Economist on September 15th, the overwhelming majority of companies have chosen to include the phrase "due to the events of September 11th" in their quarterly reports to explain away their corporate shrinking profits or growing losses."
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barron/barron110101.html
uponroof
(11/1/01; 14:23:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 64505)
SEC Bombshell For Miners
http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A85256AF70012873C
Gold stocks intentionally targeted or just a coincidence?
*********************************************************
"...One immediate impact may be the forced reclassification of reserves by all American listed producers for the coming year-end. That could have a significant, even ruinous, effect on local mines and listings. While most analysts consulted were adamant that their valuation models would not be affected, there will be problems for retail investors who don't always have access to elaborate formulas..."
snip
"...Junior miners will be worst affected. A good deal of their value is translated through the power to define reserves. If they can only be rewarded once a feasibility study has been completed, then they will be far less inclined to take risks. It will also be more difficult to secure financing even if they are running "under-the-table" numbers.
What makes North American explorers great – and terrible – will be squashed.
The desire to conserve expensed exploration without a guaranteed return will spread across the whole industry (accelerating reserve depletion in the current environment), but juniors will be passing on projects far sooner than they might otherwise do.
A Toronto analyst agrees that the SEC is going to force a change in behaviour that favours senior producers who can fund development internally. "We won't be seeing too many more Kinrosses," he said. "The likelihood of picking a ten-bagger will be even more remote than it is now...."
*************************************************
Now why is the SEC twisting nuts in this industry while turning a blind eye in all others? One more way to ruin public interest in gold stocks?
jb
(11/1/01; 14:15:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 64504)
190% in argentina-looks like default
11/01 15:59
IMF Rules Out New Loans for Argentina; Bonds
Tumble (Update7)
By Emily Schwartz
Washington, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund ruled out any
additional financing for Argentina unless the government forces provinces to
accept a cut in federal payments.
The benchmark floating rate bond plunged more than 12 percent to its lowest
level in six years as provincial governors indicated an agreement is unlikely,
increasing the prospect of a default on some of the nation's $132 billion of public
debt.
``We recognize the difficult political situation down there and the difficult political
discussions between the central government and the provinces in particular,'' IMF
spokesman Thomas Dawson said. ``Resolution of that is naturally a requirement
for going ahead with the program.''
Overnight interest rates in pesos more than tripled to as high as 190 percent as
domestic banks braced for a wave of withdrawals. Deposits fell by 11 percent, or
$9.1 billion, since the end of June. Pesos for December delivery fell to 1.055
pesos per dollar from 1.03 pesos, signaling waning confidence in the ability of
Argentina to maintain its one-to-one peg with the U.S. dollar.
The floating rate bond due 2005 fell 6.5 to an offer price of 49, the lowest level
since March 1995. That pushed the yield up to 54 percent, triple the yield of
June. Rating agencies say Argentina will be in default if it forces investors to
swap debt for new securities that have lower value.
``No news except a comprehensive restructuring would be able to change the
dynamics in Argentina,'' said Bruno Boccara, Standard & Poor's analyst for
Argentina.
President Fernando de la Rua will announce at 8 p.m. (6 p.m. in New York) in a
videotaped address to top business executives that he has ordered a
restructuring of Argentina's $95 billion of outstanding bonds, a person familiar
with the announcement said. Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo will speak to
the executives after de la Rua's statement, the person said.
Negotiations
The government, in talks with provincial governors for 17 days, wants to reduce
the $1.4 billion it transfers to provinces each month in tax revenue. In exchange,
it promised to help cut the provinces' debt burden by requiring domestic banks
and pension funds swap at least $14 billion of provincial bonds and loans for new
securities.
The government and provinces are ``very far away'' from an agreement, said
Carlos Ruckauf, the governor of the Buenos Aires province.
Dawson suggested that Argentina may have trouble obtaining a $1.2 billion loan
payment from a $22 billion package, which was expected by the end of the year,
unless the government fulfills its pledges to the fund. The government had hoped
to speed up that payment, analysts said.
The government has counted on IMF loans to make a proposed debt exchange
more attractive to investors. The government has selected Merrill Lynch & Co. to
help advise on lowering financing costs on $95 billion of outstanding bonds
through a similar exchange. Merrill International President Jacob Frenkel arrived
in Buenos Aires today to meet with government officials.
The government has said the new securities would pay lower interest but be
guaranteed by IMF and other international loans.
$3 Billion
If the government can't meet its commitments to the IMF, Argentina won't receive
a $3 billion payment intended to be used in the planned debt exchange, Dawson
said.
In addition, he said, an acceleration of funds ``is not being considered. It is not in
the cards.''
U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has indicated that any more assistance for
Argentina should come from the IMF and not the U.S., which is the fund's largest
shareholder.
The IMF still hasn't scheduled a visit by an IMF team to Argentina, which would
have to finish its work before the lender can release the next payment from the
credit line.
``We would expect a fund mission would go down once the authorities have
concluded their considerations,'' Dawson said. ``That could be in the near future
and would be expected to happen once sufficient progress has been made on the
fiscal side.''
Payment Made
Argentina made payments on $117 million bonds due today and faces another
$1.18 billion in debt payments in November, including loans from international
lenders. The Buenos Aires province, the nation's most populous, has $47.3
million in payments to bondholders this month.
The IMF's decision to withhold loans to Argentina will make those payments
more difficult, analysts said.
``Given that the IMF has stated it is not considering advancing the December
disbursement into November, the November amoritizations will have to be met
primarily with new cash from the pension funds,'' said Christian Stracke, Latin
American debt strategist for Commerzbank AG. ``It may also make any cash
payment of debt to the provinces difficult if the central government must conserve
cash reserves to cover amoritizations.''
jb
(11/1/01; 13:41:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64503)
(No Subject)
this is on gold- eagle ,can anyone comment on this?the low spot price was $278.40+-.
" Gold Seen Dn To $272/Oz, Silver To $4.12
London, 1 November: Spot gold likely come under selling pressure, test
trend line support at $272/oz, says JP Morgan.
Silver seen falling to $4.12/oz, with a risk of move to $4.00/oz, bank adds.
Gold at $279.50/oz, silver at $4.23/oz. "
BR549
(11/1/01; 13:10:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 64502)
BBC--Some good stuff here about Gold
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1576000/1576867.stm
Netking (msg#: 64495)---
Thanks for the earlier post. Some nuggets buried in the link you posted earlier about Andy Smith (a gold bear turning around):
"The price of gold could go to $340 an ounce within the next three months - and continue to soar after that.
This not any old forecast by a "gold bug", those gold enthusiasts, but a complete about-face by one of the staunchest pessimists on gold prices in the business.
Andy Smith is the precious metals analyst at Mitsui Securities in London.
There are many in the gold market who argue that only reason the gold price has not risen farther is because central banks and some of the big investment banks are deliberately suppressing it by selling gold as soon as the price spikes."
Just how large are those Brinks trucks that are hauling all of those PM's out of the rubble of WTC? Is it all there to transport? We'll never know.
BR549
Pandagold
(11/1/01; 13:05:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 64501)
Old Yellow: Doctorate in Spin?
I truly believe there will soon be a degree course on 'spin doctoring'. It seems to be an accepted ministerial appointment within government these days.
One, who overstepped his mark,on three occasions to the point of being caught out in his lies and deceit, yet was acknowledged as an expert in his field, Peter Mandelson, (Blair's right hand man) had (after much squirming) to relinquish his post.
I suppose the objective these days is put out as many lies and conflicting reports as you can - this confuses, confounds, diverts energy, and people waste time arguing over which may be right until it all becomes one big yawn.
Trouble is, they tell such convincing lies, they even begin to believe them themselves.
It's a game of Liars Poker.
Netking
(11/1/01; 12:50:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 64500)
Australia now a target
http://smh.com.au/news/0111/02/world/world15.html
Fair dinkum cobber, the threat of a jihad, or holy war has now been extended to Australia, not unexpectedly as PM Howard reported that increased security was in place.
Meanwhile worsening strains develop between Canberra and Jakarta, home of a major portion of the worlds muslims
Ms Megawati warned that world Muslim opinion would be inflamed if the bombing continued during the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, which begins in a fortnight.
Old Yeller
(11/1/01; 12:17:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 64499)
Panda;petro-conspiracies
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_1626000/1626889.stm
Seems the British state information deseminators scoff at the very suggestion.This article contains some unambiguous spin-doctoring,IMO.
De Ronin
(11/01/01; 11:50:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64498)
An attempted heist of Ground Zero Gold?
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/01/nyregion/01VAUL.html?searchpv=nytToday
Below Ground Zero, Silver and Gold
By JIM DWYER
The Associated Press
About two weeks ago, a security team spotted scorch marks on a basement doorway below 4 World Trade Center, on the east side of the ruined complex, according to officials.
Even in a place of mass devastation and death, those scorch marks got fast attention. They had not been noticed by a patrol team a few hours earlier, and behind the damaged — but intact — door were nearly a thousand tons of gold and silver. To security officials, it looked as if someone had tried to break in.
Within hours, a video surveillance system was installed to keep at least an electronic eye on the precious metals until their custodian, the Bank of Nova Scotia, had a chance to remove them. That work began this week.
A team of 30 firefighters and police officers are helping to move the metals, a task that can be measured practically down to the flake but that has been rounded off at 379,036 ounces of gold and 29,942,619 ounces of silver.
As layers of debris are peeled away, recovery workers are opening gangways to intact portions of a 16- acre basement that was largely unseen but was a place of spectacular scope in its own right. Just the basement area of the World Trade Center enclosed twice as much space as the entire Empire State Building.
Nearly a quarter of a mile below the spectacular vistas from the towers was their upside-down attic dropping 70 feet below the ground, a strange world with enough room for fortunes in gold and silver, for Godiva chocolates, assault weapons, old furniture, bricks of cocaine, phony taxicabs and Central Intelligence Agency files. With so many people still lost, the owners of this stuff have maintained a discreet silence during the recovery operations. But that doesn't mean they're not interested.
Beneath the Customs House — 6 World Trade Center — was an armada of government vehicles, including dozens owned by the Secret Service, in a fenced-off area. Within that area was a garage where a single armored limousine was parked under the tightest security.
The limousine was so long that it needed straight-line access to the street, because it could not clear tight corners in the basement.
That car had been used to carry heads of state visiting the city, said Tony Ball, a spokesman for the Secret Service. (The president's limousines are stored in Washington and flown everywhere he visits.)
In the 1993 trade center bombing, an armored Secret Service limousine was parked about 100 feet from a truck bomb. Although the bomb crashed through five stories of concrete and the concussion destroyed cars all over that floor, the Secret Service limousine "did not even have a broken windshield," according to a government official on the scene that day. The condition of the limousine after September's attack was not known yesterday. "We haven't gotten anything back yet," Mr. Ball said.
Asked about reports that his agency also kept what looked like ordinary taxis and telephone company trucks in the basement, Mr. Ball laughed. "What I would say is that it is not unusual for law enforcement agencies to have these kinds of things," he said.
Besides the Secret Service, the building named for the United States Customs Service also housed an office of the C.I.A.
That building is now partly collapsed, with a rubble pit 30 feet deep. Somewhere in there are drugs, weapons and contraband seized by the Customs Service at the region's airports. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms also lost two evidence vaults, according to a spokesman for that agency, Joseph Green. They have not yet been recovered.
"There could be several hundred weapons — somewhere between 200 and 400, ranging from small-caliber semiautomatic pistols to assault rifles," Mr. Green said, adding that a few of the guns had been found. Agents plan to be on the scene when the remains of the building are demolished sometime in the next two weeks, he said.
"After that, we'll be working at the landfill to search for any important items that are still missing."
For people who have seen the surface destruction, either in pictures or in person, it may be hard to imagine that anything is intact below ground. But engineers and recovery officials say that large parts of the underground perimeter are undamaged, even though the buildings above them are partly collapsed.
One area is below 4 World Trade Center, where more than two decades ago, Swiss Bank built a huge vault and storage area. The vault was reached from the Swiss Bank offices by a private elevator.
To reach the vaults, armored trucks would drive through what had once been the tunnels for the Hudson and Manhattan railroad, the predecessor of the PATH system. These tunnels had run as far east as Church Street, but were not needed when the trade center was built and the PATH terminal was set closer to the river.
The western stubs of the original tunnels, ringed with cast iron, were converted into roadways. These roads ran directly to a roll-down door in front of the Swiss Bank vault area. Inside was a loading dock.
By the time of the 1993 bombing, Swiss Bank no longer was using the vault, and shortly afterward, the bank relocated its remaining operations.
The next tenant of the vault space was the Bank of Nova Scotia, which estimated the value of the metals at $200 million.
"We are in the process of relocating the contents of our vault at World Trade Center building No. 4 to another secure location, because authorities need to demolish the building," Pam Agnew, a spokeswoman for the bank, said yesterday by phone from Toronto.
Some of the metal is owned by the bank, and some by its customers, she said. She declined to say where the metals were being taken.
"The contents remain safe and intact," Ms. Agnew said. "The contents are fully insured. We're working very closely with local authorities to ensure a safe and secure relocation effort.
"The removal of the contents was not a priority for us because we've always known it was safe and secure," Ms. Agnew said.
Asked about what appeared to be an attempted break-in two weeks ago, Ms. Agnew said that she was unaware of it. Later, she called to reiterate that the metals were safe: "It would be factually incorrect to say there had been any attempt to steal the contents of our vault."
However, a government official involved in the recovery efforts said that there had clearly been an attempt within the last two weeks to enter the vault area. "It looked like they used a blowtorch, a crowbar," said the official, who spoke on the condition that neither his name nor his position be identified. "The Port Authority police began periodic patrols, and then a closed-circuit television system was put in."
The bank also engaged Kroll Inc., a security business based in New York, to supervise the relocation of the gold and silver, a process that began this week, The Daily News reported yesterday.
Michael Cherkasky, the president of Kroll, declined to comment on his company's involvement.
Anyone trying to make off with the gold would not be able to run very fast: each ingot weighs 70 pounds.
Max Rabbitz
(11/1/01; 11:40:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 64497)
Pandagold....Natural Resources of Afghanistan
95 million barrels of proven and probable oil reserves in a country the size of Texas is not much ....about the same reserves as many E&P companies. A little more natural gas but nothing to get excited about considering that gas is in much greater abundance throughout the region and harder to transport. As for coal, the problem is not limited supply. Nothing is said about gold!
I can remember when the left said the U.S. was in Viet Nam for the oil and oil companies. It's been 30 years and nothing is gushing yet. Not that those capitalists aren't greedy. Maybe not much oil?
The simplest explantion is usually the right one (Ocam's Razer). If the U.S. was just after the resources she would take Iraq and just forget about Afghanistan.
Old Yeller
(11/1/01; 10:58:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 64496)
The perils of sub-prime lenders
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/detox/10003302.html
One of Doug Nolan's favorite topics.
Netking
(11/1/01; 10:29:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 64495)
"Gold market thwarts expectations"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1627000/1627713.stm
Good Morning, Gold in the news again on the BBC site. The story may not be the best in the world for PM's but it gets the "G" word out there "as an option" for them.
As things turn to custard they'll return to it but with cheque books yes.
BR549
(11/01/01; 10:26:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 64494)
FAS 133 & IAS 39– Making investing in derivatives even more complicated
http://www.wallstreetandtech.com/story/riskManagement/WST20010510S0001
"Financial Accounting Standard 133, known as FAS 133, was established by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), an authoritative developer of standards for financial accounting and reporting in the United States. This new standard requires all organizations that use derivatives and report financial information under U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to record on balance sheets the fair market value of all derivatives, along with all changes in market value reported as profits or losses on income statements.
Throughout the United States, banks, investment and auditing firms, and corporate treasuries are facing compliance challenges with FAS 133, a new accounting rule affecting the record-keeping and reporting of financial derivatives. FAS 133 compliance can be stringent and exacting on financial organizations, causing some even to reduce or cease their derivatives activities. Eventually, however, thousands of firms and companies that understand the benefits of derivatives will have to not only apply these new requirements organization-wide, but have the requisite tools in place to service their clients, as well.
Because of the daunting task of industry-wide FAS 133 compliance, many firms and corporations have opted to curtail or even eliminate entirely their derivatives underwriting and trading activity for the short term. This approach, however, carries its own set of risks.
Firms that decide to stop using derivatives because they are not prepared to comply with FAS 133 could lose strategic advantages that typically result from prudent risk management. Among the impacts of not using derivatives to hedge positions could be a higher cost of funds, a lower price at which commodities are sold, or more difficulty competing in foreign markets. For U.S. companies, earnings volatility will likely increase and relative competitive strength decrease for enterprises that stop using derivatives because of FAS 133.
This will require organizations that use derivatives to mark to market historically all derivatives positions as of financial reporting dates. It also will require organizations to perform prospective hedge effectiveness tests for derivatives on their books and, throughout the life of each derivative instrument, retrospective hedge effectiveness tests as well.
FAS 133 compliance is enormous in its size and scope, and many companies do not have the necessary combination of derivatives subject-matter expertise, access to historical market data and the time to devote to managing all of the complexities required in building internal compliance systems to engage in automated accounting and reporting of this magnitude. Companies need systems that are secure, open, can scale from one user to an entire enterprise, and that offer permissioned access points for members of a sell-side or auditing firm to provide information for clients about the derivatives that they are using.
Auditors providing auditing services to any business that uses derivatives will require business systems to enable staff to verify client compliance with FAS 133. Failure to do so could expose the firm and partners to unnecessary professional business risks.
Investors may experience earnings volatility in the short term, but over time FAS 133 compliance will result in much higher quality risk disclosure. This, most professional users of derivatives agree, will help create a stronger financial system over the long term.
Banks also can benefit from accurate, independent and comprehensive financial instrument valuation and risk management solutions that FAS 133-compliant software can provide. This may include mark-to-market and hedge effectiveness testing for interest rate swaps on their books, or to deal with commercial loans that are pooled and hedged with basis swaps.
As daunting as FAS 133 compliance may be, successful financial organizations realize that readiness is ultimately not an option. Thousands of firms, corporations, banks and auditing businesses that understand the benefits of derivatives will eventually need to implement a technology solution that is comprehensive and highly integrated to help them successfully leverage their assets now and into the future. "
BR-So it is becoming even more complicated to invest in derivatives because of these new accounting rules now in effect. The secretive manipulations will now become IRS recoards and reports that are causing some firms to limit their derivative exposure. This exposure to risks is really what drives the hedge fund industry. The transfer or elimination of risk is what derivatives are all about.
Reporting dates and mark to market transactions must now be reported and so this is not an easy task (to comply with the standards of FAS 133). These new rules not only apply to the banksters, but also to hedge funds and any other entity who invests in derivatives including the clients of the above.
From my previous post on this subject: ""Fifteen per cent said they had reduced use of financial derivatives due to the US financial accounting standard 133 (FAS 133) and international accounting standard 39 (IAS 39). Among US companies reporting reduced derivatives activity, several said they were dropping their use of complex options in favour of plain vanilla hedging tools, such as currency forwards, that more easily qualify for FAS 133 hedge accounting treatment."
Plain vanilla hedging tools? Since most of these hedge funds are "off-shore", I wonder which accounting standard applies to which entity—FAS 133 or IAS 39? And what happens to individual investors if their hedge fund does not comply with these new standards or meets its obligations or defaults? The Citibanks and JPMC's of the world are covered but are you?
Physical Gold is so much simpler.
BR549
site steward
(11/01/01; 10:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 64493)
Jensen update
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/index.html
See the changing face of foreign policy in the wake of September 11.
BR549
(11/1/01; 09:40:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 64492)
An investment of $1000 at inception of the Quantum Hedge Fund would now be worth over $2m. LTCM is believed to have had $200bn exposure on a capital base of $2.3bn.
http://www.financialminds.com/article.asp?item=183
Why are derivatives so dangerous and how do you "hedge" you bets:
"These are the six defining characteristics of hedge funds.
1. Hedge fund managers can go long or short
2. Hedge fund managers use gearing or leverage
3. Hedge fund managers are paid through a performance or incentive fee
4. Hedge funds are often registered offshore
5. Hedge fund managers usually invest their own money in their funds
6. Hedge fund managers aim for absolute returns.
The largest sector of hedge fund managers is the global macro sector and it is here that the most famous of the hedge fund managers, George Soros, and his $20bn Quantum fund range lies. Soros has seen unparalleled returns in his funds: the Quantum Fund has achieved compounded annual returns of over 30 per cent for more than two decades. An investment of $1000 at inception of the fund would now be worth over $2m.
Event-driven managers are the next sector of hedge funds and these managers rely on 'events' to throw up investment opportunities. Short sellers are the last big group of managers and they were in their natural element in August-they short or sell (stocks) and flourish in falling markets. The short sellers shone in August, with seven of the top 10 performing funds investing in the sector. The year- to-date figures for short sellers show a 14 per cent return and the top performing fund in August's MAR/Hedge figures shows Peregrine Investment Partners achieving 56.7 per cent over the month on assets of under $1m.
The most famous of hedge funds at the time of writing is Long Term Capital Management. Its August investment board which included a number of well-respected economics and investment gurus did little to protect it from a near collapse in September 1998. From its launch, LTCM was a secretive firm and it still isn't clear exactly what the fund invested in or how, but what is clear is that its levels of leverage are what undid it so rapidly. Estimates vary but LTCM is believed to have had $200bn exposure on a capital base of $2.3bn. Leverage, or gearing, increases the volatility of an investment fund, intensifying the results so that when returns are positive, they are gravity defying, and when negative they are down almost beyond redemption. Most hedge funds do not employ such a high level of gearing. "
So in today's market if you want the maximum risk exposure for a hedge fund investment—you need to invest in an event driven highly geared minimum 100-1 (exposure vs. capital base) fund that invests in the global market sector by selling short with a minimum compounded annual return of at least 30%.
And, Oh yeah, by the way—a hedge fund that has its risk insured by the Federal Reserve.
If not, then just buy some physical Gold and you'll sleep better at night just in case that Fed guarantee thing doesn't work out.
BR549
Pandagold
(11/1/01; 09:34:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64491)
More than meets the eye
Whatever the real reasons are for US involvement in Afghaniston, and for this so called war against 'Terrorism', there appears much to show that it is not all connected to Sept 11th. The whole business smells worse than a rotten (red) herring.
EIA Energy Administration Information
September 2001
Afghanistan
The information contained in this report is the best available as of September 2001 and can change.
General Background
Afghanistan's significance from an energy standpoint stems from its geographical position as a potential transit route for oil and natural gas exports from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea. This potential includes the possible construction of oil and natural gas export pipelines through Afghanistan, which was under serious consideration in the mid-1990s. The idea has since been undermined by Afghanistan's instability. Since 1996, most of Afghanistan has been controlled by the Taliban movement, which the United States does not recognize as the government of Afghanistan.
On December 19, 2000, the UN Security Council imposed additional sanctions against Afghanistan's ruling Taliban movement (which controls around 95% of the country), including an arms embargo and a ban on the sale of chemicals used in making heroin. These sanctions (Resolution 1333) are aimed at pressuring Afghanistan to turn over Osama bin Laden, suspected in various terrorist attacks, including the August 1998 US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. These latest sanctions are in addition to sanctions (Resolution 1267) imposed on Afghanistan in November 1999, which included a freeze on Taliban assets and a ban on international flights by Afghanistan's national airline, Ariana. The Taliban reacted sharply to the new sanctions, ordering a boycott of US and Russian goods, and pulling out of UN-mediated peace talks aimed at ending the country's civil war.
On November 29, 1999, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan issued a report on Afghanistan which listed the country's major problems as follows: civil war (which has caused many casualties and refugees, and which has devastated the country's economy), record opium production, wide-scale human rights violations, and food shortages caused in part by drought.
According to the 2001 CIA World Factbook, Afghanistan is an extremely poor, landlocked country, highly dependent on farming and livestock raising. Afghanistan has experienced over two decades of war, including the nearly 10-year Soviet military occupation (which ended in 1989). During that conflict one-third of the population fled the country, with Pakistan and Iran sheltering a combined peak of more than 6 million refugees. Large Afghan refugee populations remain in Pakistan and Iran. Gross domestic product has fallen substantially over the past 20 years because of the loss of labor and capital and the disruption of trade and transport. The severe drought of 1998-2000 added to these problems.
The majority of the population continues to suffer from insufficient food, clothing, housing, and medical care. Inflation remains a serious problem throughout the country. International aid can deal with only a fraction of the humanitarian problem, let alone promote economic development. The economic situation did not improve in 1999-2000, as internal civil strife has continued, hampering both domestic economic policies and international aid efforts. Numerical data are likely to be either unavailable or unreliable. Afghanistan was by far the largest world producer of opium poppies in 2000, and narcotics trafficking is a major source of revenues.
Energy Overview
The Soviets had estimated Afghanistan's proven and probable natural gas reserves at up to 5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the 1970s. Afghan natural gas production reached 275 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) in the mid-1970s. However, due to declining reserves from producing fields, output gradually fell to about 220 Mmcf/d by 1980. At that time, the Jorquduq field was brought online and was expected to boost Afghan natural gas output to 385 Mmcf/d by the early 1980s. However, sabotage of infrastructure by the anti-Soviet mujaheddin fighters limited the country's total production to 290 Mmcf/d, an output level that was held fairly steady until the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. After the Soviet pullout and subsequent Afghan civil war, roughly 31 producing wells at Sheberghan area fields were shut in pending the restart of natural gas sales to the former Soviet Union.
At its peak in the late 1970s, Afghanistan supplied 70%-90% of its natural gas output to the Soviet Union's natural gas grid via a link through Uzbekistan. In 1992, Afghan President Najibullah indicated that a new natural gas sales agreement with Russia was in progress.
However, several former Soviet republics raised price and distribution issues and negotiations stalled. In the early 1990s, Afghanistan also discussed possible natural gas supply arrangements with Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and several Western European countries, but these talks never progressed further.
Afghan natural gas fields include Jorqaduq, Khowaja Gogerdak, and Yatimtaq, all of which are located within 20 miles of the northern town of Sheberghan in Jowzjan province. Natural gas production and distribution is the responsibility of the Taliban-controlled Afghan Gas Enterprise. In 1999, work resumed on the repair of a distribution pipeline to Mazar-i-Sharif. Spur pipelines to a small power plant and fertilizer plant also were repaired and completed. Mazar-i-Sharif is now receiving natural gas from the pipeline, as well as some other surrounding areas. Rehabilitation of damaged natural gas wells has been undertaken at the Khowaja Gogerak field, which has increased natural gas production.
In February 1998, the Taliban announced plans to revive the Afghan National Oil Company, which was abolished by the Soviet Union after it invaded Afghanistan in 1979. Soviet estimates from the late 1970s placed Afghanistan's proven and probable oil and condensate reserves at 95 million barrels. Oil exploration and development work as well as plans to build a 10,000-bbl/d refinery were halted after the 1979 Soviet invasion. A very small amount of crude oil is produced at the Angot field in the northern Sar-i-Pol province. It is processed at a primitive topping plant in Sheberghan, and burned in central heating boilers in Sheberghan, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Kabul. Another small oilfield at Zomrad Sai near Sheberghan was reportedly undergoing repairs in mid-2001.
Petroleum products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are imported, mainly from Pakistan and Turkmenistan. A small storage and distribution facility exists in Jalalabad on the highway between Kabul and Peshawar, Pakistan. Turkmenistan also has a petroleum product storage and distribution facility at Tagtabazar near the Afghan border, which supplies northwestern Afghanistan.
Besides oil and natural gas, Afghanistan also is estimated to have 73 million tons of coal reserves, most of which is located in the region between Herat and Badashkan in the northern part of the country. Although Afghanistan produced over 100,000 short tons of coal annually as late as the early 1990s, as of 1999, the country was producing only around 1,000 short tons.
Afghanistan's power grid has been severely damaged by years of war. Currently, the ruling Taliban are concentrating on rebuilding damaged hydroelectric plants, power distribution lines, and high-voltage cables. Production of power by Afghanistan's hydroelectric dams was negatively affected by the drought of 1998-2000, resulting in blackouts in Kabul and other cities. Increased rainfall in 2001 has improved power production. The Kajaki Dam in Helmand province near Kandahar is undergoing the addition of another generating turbine with assistance from the Chinese Dongfeng Agricultural Machinery Company. This will add 16.5 megawatts (MW) to its generating capacity when completed. Transmission lines from the Kajaki Dam to Kandahar were repaired in early 2001, along with a substation in the city, restoring supplies of electricity. The Dahla Dam in Kandahar province also has been restored to operation, along with the Breshna-Kot Dam in Nangarhar province, which has a generating capacity of 11.5 MW. The 66-MW Mahipar hydro plant also is now operational.
Turkmenistan supplies electricity to much of northwestern Afghanistan. In October 1999, Afghanistan announced that it had reached agreement with Turkmenistan for electricity imports into northwestern Afghanistan, including power to the city of Herat and the Herat cement plant. Another transmission line has been built from Turkmenistan to the city of Andkhoy, and one was under construction in 2001 to Sheberghan. Electricity has previously been imported from Uzbekistan for Mazar-i-Sharif, but supplies were cut off during the winter of 1999 due to payment arrears.
Regional Pipeline Plans
In January 1998, the Taliban signed an agreement that would allow a proposed 890-mile, $2-billion, 1.9-billion-cubic-feet-per-day natural gas pipeline project led by Unocal to proceed. The proposed pipeline would have transported natural gas from Turkmenistan's 45-Tcf Dauletabad natural gas field to Pakistan, and most likely would have run from Dauletabad south to the Afghan border and through Herat and Qandahar in Afghanistan, to Quetta, Pakistan. The line would then have linked with Pakistan's natural gas grid at Sui. Natural gas shipments had been projected to start at 700 Mmcf/d in 1999 and to rise to 1.4 Bcf/d or higher by 2002. In March 1998, however, Unocal announced a delay in finalizing project details due to Afghanistan's continuing civil war. In June 1998, Gazprom announced that it was relinquishing its 10% stake in the gas pipeline project consortium (known as the Central Asian Gas Pipeline Ltd., or Centgas), which was formed in August 1996. As of June 1998, Unocal and Saudi Arabia's Delta Oil held a combined 85% stake in Centgas, while Turkmenrusgas owned 5%. Other participants in the proposed project besides Delta Oil include the Crescent Group of Pakistan, Gazprom of Russia, Hyundai Engineering & Construction Company of South Korea, Inpex and Itochu of Japan
On December 8, 1998, Unocal announced that it was withdrawing from the Centgas consortium, citing low oil prices and turmoil in Afghanistan as making the pipeline project uneconomical and too risky. Unocal's announcement followed an earlier statement -- in August 1998 -- that the company was suspending its role in the Afghanistan gas pipeline project in light of the recent U.S. government military action in Afghanistan, and also due to intensified fighting between the Taliban and opposition groups. Unocal had previously stressed that the Centgas pipeline project would not proceed until an internationally recognized government was in place in Afghanistan. To date, however, only three countries -- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates -- have recognized the Taliban government.
Besides the gas pipeline, Unocal also had considered building a 1,000-mile, 1-million barrel-per-day (bbl/d) capacity oil pipeline that would link Chardzou, Turkmenistan to Pakistan's Arabian Sea Coast via Afghanistan. Since the Chardzou refinery is already linked to Russia's Western Siberian oil fields, this line could provide a possible alternative export route for regional oil production from the Caspian Sea. The $2.5-billion pipeline is known as the Central Asian Oil Pipeline Project. For a variety of reasons, including high political risk and security concerns, however, financing for this project remains highly uncertain.
In April 1999, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan agreed to reactivate the Turkmenistan-Pakistan gas pipeline project, and to ask the Centgas consortium, now led by Saudi Arabia's Delta Oil (following Unocal's withdrawal from the project), to proceed. Periodic meetings to discuss the project have continued. It remains unlikely, however, that this pipeline will be built.
Energy Infrastructure at a Glance
Oil
Angot Oilfield Produces a small quantity of crude oil; located in Sar-i-Pol province
Zomrad Sai Oilfield Reportedly undergoing rehabilitation; near Sheberghan
Sheberghan Topping Plant Primitive topping plant which processes crude oil for consumption in heating boilers in Kabul, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Sheberghan
Jalalabad Storage Facility Petroleum product storage and distribution facility
Gas
Sheberghan Area Gas Fields The Jorqaduk, Khowaja Gogerak, and Yatimtaq gas fields are all located within 20 miles of Sheberghan
Pipeline to Mazar-i-Sharif A pipeline connects these gas fields to Mazar-i-Sharif.Gas is used for a small power plant, a fertilizer plant, and domestic use.
Local pipelines Small local pipelines near the gas fields distribute gas in small quantities to nearby villages and Sheberghan
Electricity
Kajaki Dam Located in Helmand province near Kandahar; undergoing upgrade which will add a third generating turbine and increase its installed capacity by 16.5 MW (from its current 33 MW capacity); transmission lines to Kandahar repaired in early 2001.
Mahipar Dam Installed capacity of 66 MW.Repaired and operational.
Breshna-Kot Dam Installed capacity of 11.5 MW.Repaired and operational.In Nangarhar province near Jalalabad.
Breshna-Kot Substation Reportedly undergoing repairs.
Dahla Dam Kandahar province.Repaired and operational.
Mazar-i-Sharif Power Plant Small gas-fired power plant near Mazar-i-Sharif, with an installed capacity of 35 MW.
Transmission Lines from Turkmenistan Transmission lines from Turkmenistan supply power to several cities in northwestern Afghanistan, including Herat, and Andkhoy.A line was under construction in early 2001 to Sheberghan.
Note: This listing of Afghanistan's energy infrastructure was compiled from information available in press and media sources, and should not necessarily be considered comprehensive. Only facilities which have been reported to be functional or under repair have been included.
U.S. Geological Survey - Map of Afghanistan's Natural Resources
Black Blade
(11/1/01; 09:11:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64490)
U.S. dragging global economy into the mire
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20011101/764267.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON - The economic slump in the United States is expected to drag the world into recession, making it difficult to predict when a recovery might begin, the World Bank said yesterday. The pessimistic report came after the U.S. economy recorded its sharpest contraction in more than a decade during the third quarter, with gross domestic product slipping at an annual rate of 0.4%.
Black Blade: Time to grab some Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. I see that the Pied Pipers are in top form this morning giving dubious explanations why the market has bottomed. The same old tired clichés.
Black Blade
(11/1/01; 09:05:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 64489)
Job losses to hit 24 million
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1631000/1631990.stm
Snippit:
The ILO said an Asian revival is needed Twenty-four million job opportunites - more than the population of Texas, or Australia - will disappear by the end of 2002 because of the global economic slowdown.
Black Blade: That's one Big Pile of "Bones."
goldquest
(11/01/01; 08:23:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64488)
Biggest Gold Discovery in Egypt's Eastern Desert
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/011031/2001103134.html
Good for the POG? Or bad for the POG?
PH in LA
(11/01/01; 08:13:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64487)
USS Liberty
"it was the Liberty that was giving out Israeli troop movements to Egypt. Its bombing was self defense. The reason the US gov hushed the issue is not because of some attempt at protecting Israel but because Israel's intercepts from the Liberty's transmissions would have destroyed countless careers in the State Department and the CIA and NSA organizations, exposing publicly that the US gov does the exact opposite of what it says." ORO (11/1/01; 01:41:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 64484)
ORO:
Would you mind citing a source for the information and allegation contained in your remark above?
The Liberty incident has been well-documented by the men who served aboard her during the incident on their website (see Black Blade's reference). Your allegation above is less publicized. In fact, it would seem to fly in the face of logic when the question is asked: Why would the US be transmitting Israeli troop movements to Egypt? Why would a ship have to be positioned there to do that? And why haven't the Israelis themselves made the claim you so blithely proclaim without any supporting evidence?
Note: OK, go ahead and brand me "anti-semitic" for asking such inappropriate questions.
Black Blade
(11/1/01; 03:05:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 64486)
ORO - Coal, USS Liberty, Middle East, etc.
http://64.39.19.39/
I don't think that we have any disagreement on coal. However, the Arab Oil Embargo as "being a joke" misses the point that autos lined up for petrol and not for coal. Granted I agree that the overall energy issue could be relieved with greater extraction and use of coal. However, there are certain realities such as the environmental movements opposition to coal and oil fired power. I also agree that this position is irrational. The environmentalist PR campaign against use of coal and hydrocarbons along with the NIMBY attitude toward power plants, pipelines, mines, refineries and transmission grids in general make public political support difficult. A couple of prime examples we can examine are the ANWR drilling debate and the refusal by the state of California to prepare for the inevitable power crisis they endured last year.
As far as the USS Liberty incident - sorry but I don't see where machine-gunning unarmed defenseless US sailors in lifeboats was crucial to the existence of Israel. Two heroic Israeli pilots refused to murder these young Americans and as their reward they each served 18 years in an Israeli prison. Israel claims they mistook our ship for the out-of-service Egyptian horse carrier El Quseir and that we brought the attack upon ourselves by operating in a war zone without displaying a flag. Not so. The USS Liberty was in international waters, far from any fighting, and flew a bright, clean, new American flag. Liberty's intercepts also may have shown Israel seized upon rising Arab-Israeli tensions in May-June, 1967 to launch a long-planned war to invade and annex the West Bank, Jerusalem, Golan and Sinai. Liberty was shattered but defiant, her flag still flying. Israeli attacks killed 34 U.S. seamen and wounded 171 out of a crew of 297, the worst loss of U.S. naval personnel from hostile action since World War II. (see link above).
Ally? I think not. Besides, the USS Liberty communications were intercepted and they reveal that Israel was very likely the primary aggressor. And we haven't even discussed other incidents such as the traitor Jonathon Pollard who used high security clearance to engage in espionage. He is no different than John Walker or any other traitor. Yet Israel presses for a presidential pardon over strong opposition from the Pentagon (what's left of it). But now we really digress. My point is that we would have been much better off leaving these Middle Eastern peoples to what they do best - slaughter each other. All we really want is the oil.
Anyway it's late.
- Black Blade
Golden Dreams All!
Belgian
(11/1/01; 01:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 64485)
The *T.I.N.A.* dilemma !
There isn't (yet) an alternative for *cheap* M.E. crude !
The absurd over-valuation of the US$, against all other currencies, perpetuates the dependancy of the US/Europ on these cheap ME crude reserves. All other alternatives could be exploited, profitable, if the dollar could/should/would, come down from its overvaluation.
That's what all the present (and past) geo-political suffering and manoeuvering, is all about.
That's why high eyes are casted to the former USSR regional wealth on cheap resources. They can be exploited (again) with rubble/rubble paper costs. Most of the profits of all these vital resources must meet the condition that they flow to the users/consumers of these resources. This demands a very specific strategy for geo-political dominance that remains waterproof. Builded on absolute power and might. Opportunistic sharing of these wealths and install a peacefull trade relation on an equal basis, doesn't seem to be possible or desired. That's why *confrontation* will remain on the order of the day.
At present, the decade's old capacity of Saudi Arabia (+ allies) as regulating *swing-producer*, is in danger.
If this mechanism is going to fail, w'll see dramatic changes. I'm afraid, this has already been planned/projected.
The ME-crude-policy/psychology, changed, after the Gulf war.
From relatively quiet and peacefull into more pro-active management of crude's value versus the dollar.
Globalization and anti, hasn't yet been associated (focussed) with the specifics of dollar-dominance, yet.
The ideal alternative for internal islamist, renaissance, should be, to leave them alone, with as little interference as possible. But in a world as it is, the western economies are not going to give back an inch, of the aqcuired prosperity, from absurd cheap resources. A very old problem, to be faced with the same fear and arrogance.
With the inherent atrocity of terror, the weak, have found the Achillus heel. The unfortunate succes of the WTC attack/murder, is therefore a tumbling point of utmost importance. The chosen way of handling this, with the classic confrontational respons, is imvho, a big mistake.
In Europ, terror has been used/abused (!) long before 11/9.
We haven't been bombing and the bulk of terror, faded away.
Far from being a model pacifist, I'm just stating the fact that this non-confrontational policy, worked, and resulted in relative peace and prosperity for a broad majority of increasing participants.
Pretending that the resources under the umbrella of weak currencies, are, the servants of the western capitalistic lords, is imo, outdated. And, indeed, it took me quite some time to adjust to this classic thought, myself.
The US/UK, present policy, will inevitably lead to more tension. With breaking points for the different factions in the coalition and no final - lasting solution for the underlying problem of exaggerated imbalance.
It will be the US-dollar that is to be challenged. And with it, peace and prosperity.
ORO
(11/1/01; 01:41:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 64484)
Black Blade - "Inevitable conflict" and USS Liberty
First, it was the Liberty that was giving out Israeli troop movements to Egypt. Its bombing was self defense. The reason the US gov hushed the issue is not because of some attempt at protecting Israel but because Israel's intercepts from the Liberty's transmissions would have destroyed countless carreers in the State Department and the CIA and NSA organizations, exposing publicly that the US gov does the exact opposite of what it says.
It's been 50 years since some analysts came to the conclusion that Militant Islam and the West are mutually exclusive and can not be neighbors. Simple exposure of plain old people in the Islamic world to the West rids them of much of their allegiance to the narrows of Militant Islam. Though many of the plain folks would vote for it if given a chance, disenchantment comes quickly if exposure to the West has "contaminated" the mind of the people.
Thus it is implicit in the pursuit of Militant Islam that either isolation and severely regimented control be imposed on the people, or they will simply become Westernized by seeing TV and listening to Radio, as well as communicating with family and friends abroad. This is why Saudis do not let their people on the net. That is why the Taliban destroyed all the TVs and VCRs they could find.
The second point is the oil. Since the oil in the gulf is quite simply the cheapest to produce, Western oil companies would buy off their governments in order to obtain access. Thus leading to the contact of the cultures and a threat to the Arabian Feudal power structure.
Next issue is externalization of discontent, a.k.a. scapegoating. "We are poor because the great Satan America" took away our wealth. In Arabian culture, which is Feudal, all wealth is extorted, and its producer, the phelachin or the craftsman are both viewed with disdain, as is the merchant, which is barely tolerated. All are culturally predisposed to believe that if you live in a great house you must have had to beat the stones out of countless serfs. Somehow, you must have taken it from "us", a great injustice.
Before the trade around the silk road by boat became dominant, the Arabians lived off of the southern route where the great Sultans taxed it half to death. After destroying internal trade throughout the Patan, Pharsi, Aramaic, Egyptian, Berber, Mogul, and then Byzantine lands, they had pillaged all that there was, and were culturally averse to rebuilding any of it. Then decline set in, deepened by the loss of the land route to Western shipping which was not taxed, as opposed to the land route which was nearly confiscatory.
Thus we have a people who can not conceive of how a country becomes rich, who have only a dual history of plunder and serfdom, and believe that "non believers" are less than human. Add to that the modern version of Pan Arabian Nationalism imported from Nazi Germany and incorporated into Militant Islam, and you have the elements you need in order to create a hatred born of jealousy among the leadership, a fear of their loss of power if Westernization were to occur, and a people downtrodden by the isolation imposed on them as a result of this fear. All you need now is to give them a big chunk of unearned change with which to buy arms and you have the makings of endless conflict with a beligirent enemy who knows only that your mere existence is a threat to him.
The old analysis came up with two options: take the oil and keep the unreformed Arabs away from it, or don't use the oil at all and let Pan Arabia live in decrepit isolation on to of an untapped treasure. Anyone who tries to go in between these two choices will cause the cultural tensions to rise through contact, and allow military resources to be accumulated in the hands of these countries.
While I don't fully subscribe to this view, I do recognize much of it as true. This was already discussed in Marshal's time, before the various versions of the Baath took over the kingdoms. It is not to his credit that he did not see any of it coming, nor is it to his credit that he did not recognize the simple fact that the Western oil workers themselves became sources of tension sufficient to bring about the same reaction that support for Israel brought. Contact with the Western way is a threat to the power structure of a feudal society. Thus getting the oil means creating the contact, which means creating the conditions that must lead to conflict.
Saud's fanatical hatred of Jews was not shared that broadly in intensity, but was nearly unanimous in the xenophobic Arab world to some extent - with Jews hated about as much as anyone else who was not a Moslem.
ORO
(11/1/01; 00:34:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 64483)
Black Blade - Part 2 Coal not oil
The following are PPI figures for Crude oil, NG and Coal.
.....Crude..Coal..NG
1967, 13.6, 18.7, 7.5
1968, 13.8, 19.4, 7.6
1969, 14.4, 21.1, 7.7
1970, 14.5, 28.1, 7.9
1971, 15.6, 34.0, 8.4
1972, 15.5, 36.2, 9.0
1973, 17.2, 40.8, 9.8
1974, 28.9, 62.2, 11.6
1975, 33.5, 72.2, 16.1
1976, 34.6, 68.9, 21.8
1977, 37.4, 72.8, 30.8
1978, 40.9, 80.4, 36.5
1979, 51.3, 84.3, 47.7
1980, 75.9, 87.4, 63.3
1981, 109.6, 93.0, 82.1
1982, 100.0, 100.0, 100.0
1983, 92.9, 100.5, 106.6
1984, 91.3, 102.2, 106.1
1985, 84.5, 102.2, 102.9
1986, 46.9, 100.8, 89.6
1987, 55.5, 97.1, 79.5
1988, 46.2, 95.4, 77.4
1989, 56.3, 95.5, 82.0
1990, 71.0, 97.5, 80.4
1991, 61.9, 97.2, 79.1
1992, 58.0, 95.0, 80.6
1993, 51.4, 96.1, 84.8
1994, 47.1, 96.7, 78.8
1995, 51.1, 95.0, 66.6
1996, 62.6, 94.5, 91.2
1997, 57.5, 96.3, 101.7
1998, 35.7, 93.6, 83.9
1999, 50.3, 90.7, 91.2
2000, 85.2, 88.0, 155.5
The Coal to oil price ratio (see below) had stayed at 1.3 and a bit through the whole of the 50s and 60s. It had jumped by 30% in 1970, and continued rising into 1973, to 2.4 relative to oil, or up 70%, making the "oil embargo" a total joke when you consider that the result was that in 1974 the price was the same in relative terms. This means that the oil price change then was a result of general conditions of increased demand for coal and simple monetary inflation. Obviously, the oil story is that you can't do an embargo on one country when the oil travels the world.
, Coal to Oil, NG to Oil
1967, 1.4, 0.5
1968, 1.4, 0.6
1969, 1.5, 0.5
1970, 1.9, 0.5
1971, 2.2, 0.5
1972, 2.3, 0.6
1973, 2.4, 0.6
1974, 2.2, 0.4
1975, 2.2, 0.5
1976, 2.0, 0.6
1977, 1.9, 0.8
1978, 2.0, 0.9
1979, 1.6, 0.9
1980, 1.2, 0.8
1981, 0.8, 0.7
1982, 1.0, 1.0
1983, 1.1, 1.1
1984, 1.1, 1.2
1985, 1.2, 1.2
1986, 2.1, 1.9
1987, 1.8, 1.4
1988, 2.1, 1.7
1989, 1.7, 1.5
1990, 1.4, 1.1
1991, 1.6, 1.3
1992, 1.6, 1.4
1993, 1.9, 1.6
1994, 2.1, 1.7
1995, 1.9, 1.3
1996, 1.5, 1.5
1997, 1.7, 1.8
1998, 2.6, 2.3
1999, 1.8, 1.8
2000, 1.0, 1.8
The appropriate level for coal to oil should still be around 1.4 1.5, and the only substantial departure was the coal spike of 69-73 to the coal side, and the aftermath of the Iranian revolution on the oil side, which revolution actually did cause a panic and raised oil prices (and "just in case" inventories) to absurd levels. The relative price of coal fell from 2 in 1978 to a low of 0.8 in 81, from whence the historic relationship resumed at about 1.6.
When compared to CPI, the relative price of coal to general goods went up 50% in 1970, and another 65% in 1974. Overall, coal prices rose 150% relative to general prices, rising more strongly than oil till the Iranian oil panic.
For economic impact purposes, it is useful to look at relative prices of these energy sources to the CPI:
, Crude, Coal, NG
1967, 0.14, 0.19, 0.07
1968, 0.13, 0.19, 0.07
1969, 0.13, 0.19, 0.07
1970, 0.12, 0.24, 0.07
1971, 0.13, 0.28, 0.07
1972, 0.12, 0.29, 0.07
1973, 0.13, 0.31, 0.07
1974, 0.20, 0.42, 0.08
1975, 0.21, 0.45, 0.10
1976, 0.20, 0.40, 0.13
1977, 0.21, 0.40, 0.17
1978, 0.21, 0.41, 0.19
1979, 0.24, 0.39, 0.22
1980, 0.31, 0.35, 0.26
1981, 0.40, 0.34, 0.30
1982, 0.35, 0.35, 0.35
1983, 0.31, 0.34, 0.36
1984, 0.29, 0.33, 0.34
1985, 0.26, 0.32, 0.32
1986, 0.14, 0.31, 0.27
1987, 0.16, 0.29, 0.23
1988, 0.13, 0.27, 0.22
1989, 0.15, 0.26, 0.22
1990, 0.18, 0.25, 0.21
1991, 0.15, 0.24, 0.19
1992, 0.14, 0.23, 0.19
1993, 0.12, 0.22, 0.20
1994, 0.11, 0.22, 0.18
1995, 0.11, 0.21, 0.15
1996, 0.13, 0.20, 0.19
1997, 0.12, 0.20, 0.21
1998, 0.07, 0.19, 0.17
1999, 0.10, 0.18, 0.18
2000, 0.17, 0.17, 0.30 (spike to 0.75)
The coal price stayed at about 0.2 throughout the 50s and 50s and oil at about 0.14-0.15. NG at 0.08 at a rather marginal use.
The Clean air act which made most of the coal (and sour oil) unburnable, caused a rise in the demand for cleaner coals, which became the whole of coal production. As a result of the coal shortage invented by congress, coal prices rose relative to everything else by 150% (peaked in 74 at 0.52), most of the rise within 1970 and then 1974. Oil rose in 1974 as a result of the "embargo" in part, but since coal prices rose too, it is more probably a matter of either general energy demand in this period, or that combined with simple inventory speculation driven by the monetary inflation of the time.
The actual oil shock was the Iran crisis that pushed relative crude prices to another double - even a double against coal. It was a panic driven by the Iranian disaster.
NG emerged as the cleaner and less capital intensive way to produce electricity, and followed coal up to reach a steady relative price, with Utils using the cheaper of the two according to market prices.
Over time, the coal shock receded to bring its price back in line with consumer goods prices as it was through the 50s and 60s. NG went through the same process outside of the price spike of last year. As we speak, oil fields are being redrilled for gas (and oil) all over the oil patch. Where the large oil companies left for deep water and the various Caspian fields, the small ones are drilling the old fields. Gas pipelines are on the way, and the result will be resumption of the old and consistent relationship.
The OPEC and political actions show up as substantially higher volatility in the relative price oil charts where the old ratio of oil prices to CPI has been re-attained, but volatility has never been quieted down, most notably because of OPEC decisions. The appropriate price for oil is ultimately in the consumer's hands. If oil prices are too high the consumer buys less. If too low, he buys more. The US consumer, as opposed to a German, French or Japanese, not to speak of Chinese and Koreans, is less sensitive to oil prices because it is a more minor portion of his expenses. Most notably that is because the American's production is higher than that of his counterparts elsewhere. Though much of this is imported productivity, the fact remains that the US trade relationship is roughly at equilibrium as exports are 80% of imports.
Since developing Asia must provide $100 billion in loan repayments every year, and the rest of the world has more than another $100 billion, at least the first $200 billion of the trade deficit are "pull" type rather than being pushed out of US monetary expansion. It is, therefore, structural, and there is little one can do to change it but to lower dollar indebtedness by debt to equity swaps and increased net exports by debtors. A few bankruptcies would help too, but too much "face" is lost when this happens, and many a favored crony with heavy guanxi may lose control of a politically sensitive company. And so we continue with the trade deficit, 1/2 of which is simply the result of business and governments in developing nations borrowing $2.5 trillion at 9-12% and trying to repay it by exporting the same products their neighbors are producing. Even the IMF stats show that some $200 bil a year simply evaporate in interest payments on international debt.
Chuck it to government imposed industrial policy that this has happened, joined with some Japanese inspired realy bad banking practices. (All of the Asian developing nations tried to follow the Japanese model, producing the same stuff Japanese were already producing, and playing "chicken" with each other as to who will stop construction of new plants before the market is glutted.)
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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