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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/1/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Lois (01/01/01; 22:40:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 44844) ITS ALMOST TAX TIME http://www.mtco.com/~ether/taxes.html FILE YOR TAXES ONLINE, use the link for more info gidsek (01/01/01; 22:23:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44843) SteveH ""CMRM entails immediate and aggressive action, with the old stalwart Goldman Sachs leading the charge. The firm takes a major leveraged position in Fannie Mae Long-Term Debt Securities to the tune of $50 billion. Since these are top-rated securities, this transaction is easily consummated by Goldman borrowing $50 billion in the money market (from the Money Market Fund using Fannie Mae Securities as collateral – a "repurchase agreement"). These "funds" are used to purchase $50 billion of the Household Sector's Fannie Mae Long-Term Debt Securities, held on account at Goldman Sachs. The $50 billion of proceeds are instantly deposited (electronic journal entry!) into the Money Market Funds on behalf of the client, the (now much more "liquid") Household Sector. In this case, Goldman's balance sheet increases by $50 billion to $250 billion, with Holdings of Long-Term Fannie Mae Securities increasing $50 billion (to $250 billion) and Borrowings from Money Market Fund ("Repo") also increasing $50 billion (to $250 billion). Total Household Sector Assets remain the same at $1.1 trillion. While Holdings of Fannie Mae Long-Term Debt Securities were reduced by $50 billion (to $50 billion), Money Market Fund Deposits increased $50 billion (to $450 billion). Through this leveraged transaction (an increase in financial sector liabilities/an expansion of financial credit!), Money Market Fund assets (broad money supply!) actually increased by $50 billion to $450 billion, with $250 billion of Holdings of Goldman Sach's Commercial Paper ("Repo") and $200 billion of Fannie Mae Commercial Paper. Money Market Fund liabilities "Deposits Owed to Household Sector" increased by $50 billion to $450 billion. Hopefully, this illustrates how financial sector leveraging increases so-called "liquidity," or the money supply."---------------------------------------------------------Not a criticism of you Steve but it's my belief that those that write stuff like this hope that nobody actually attempts to plow through it and that readers simply accept it's conclusions. Anybody here on the USAG Forum, take a few minutes with this and explain it to me because it certainly does not make any sense,money market vs Money Market Fund? whos fund? who is "the client". If there is a point to this article Mr. Noland does a great job of hiding it. "Hopefully this illustrates" my foot!!gidsek ThaiGold (01/01/01; 21:42:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 44842) Silver Bias Attn: Golden Truth (01/01/01; 14:58:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 44817) Hello Golden Truth:Thanks for your comments. It looks like I "Made Your Day".Throughout my essay, I tried to give Gold equal treatmentwith Silver, in an unbiased way. Although, you are correctthat I tend to favor Silver nowadays. Because of fundamentals.It's my understanding that this Forum's scope is wide enoughto include rational discussion of *all* precious metals, notat the exclusion of silver, platinum, palladium, or rhodium. Andas well, anything affecting markets therin. Such as energy,oil, natural gas, electricity, politics, and poetry.Give us a break. We cannot all be GoldBugs 100%. Even weenjoy here to read other's viewpoints regarding paper products,such as Futures and Options. And often we even enjoy thosecomments of others, inclined towards DOW and NASDAQissues. Dot.Coms whatever. Times change. And many comehere to lurk and learn from other's mistakes and preferences.I will take this opportunity to encourage you to open your mindand investigate silver's outlook. You may be overlooking oneof the best possible investments for the future.And lastly, I am not talking my silver book, as you implied. Myportfolio is diversified amongst Gold; Platintum; Palladium;and Silver, in proportion to those listed order. Silver is least,but I have recently begun shifting more towards it.You have every right to feel:[quote]your commentary is always misleading and today was no different.[unquote]And I have every right to post herein, that which I feel may beof interest to someone, anyone, looking for varied viewpoints.Afterall, isn't that why *all* of us visit here so frequently.?.You are confusing my often-contrarian viewpoints as nefariousattempts to "mislead" others. Were I inclined to do so, I'd findmuch subtler prose to accomplish such deceit. Trust me.Meanwhile, just be content knowing that my opinions which Iexpress in this Forum are meant to enliven discussion, andexpand the concepts and thinking of everyone here, to thebenefit of whomsover chooses to contemplate such diversity.I look forward to your "GOLD blows right through $2000/oz".And wish it as soon as possible for you. Please give us youropinion of what silver will be priced at upon that same day.Regards,ThaiGold Peter Asher (01/01/01; 21:39:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44841) Interesting start to the New Year Globex S&P off 18.50 Dow down 95. SHIFTY (01/01/01; 21:29:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 44840) Periodic Ponzi Update http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm Nasdaq 2,470.52 + Dow 10,786.85 = 13,257.37 divide by 2 = 6,628.68 PonziUp 52.39 from last week.Link by RossL$hifty ThaiGold (01/01/01; 20:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 44839) African Mine "Ownerships" Attn: WAC (Wide Awake Club) (01/01/01; 06:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 44807) Hello WAC:You asked:[quote]Can you please name just ONE african country that can say it as ownership of it's resources? Does Mali own it's gold? Does Ghana own it's gold.? Does .... For the answer to the question of ownership of african sources, please consult Goldman Sachs, Shell et al.[unquote]Answer:Of course, you are very correct, as things stand now. But I'dforesee those African (and elsewhere) countries nationalizingor "virtually confiscating" all their mine outputs, same as willhappen in all other countries, once Gold (and Silver) becomethe international money standard. Even USA and Canada, etc.The point is, PM's would become the new National TreasuryResource of every country, rather than the "commodity" thatthey currently are. The essay made clear that (with very fewexceptions) all mine outputs can *only* be sold to respectiveTreasuries. For minting and backing, which is the primary itemwhich grows their money supply, credit, and national wealth.What's leftover, is then marketable (as a govt export) to thosecountries shy of such resources. Further enhancing the origincountry's GNP/GDP.Foreign owned mines (same as domestically owned mines)would still be free to operate at a profit, and perhaps evenretain ownership. Why not.?. It's just that they would be verylimited in to-whom they could sell their output product.Cordially,ThaiGold LeSin (01/01/01; 20:25:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44838) Cambior "Forward Selling" Problems @ "CAP IN HAND TO B/BANKERS http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3TTNTLGHC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ3XDHE90C&tagid=ZZZJIU2RA0C Cambior agrees deal with banks on restructuringBy Gillian O'Connor Mining CorrespondentPublished: January 1 2001 20:08GMT | Last Updated: January 1 2001 23:03GMT Cambior, the Canadian gold miner crippled by its hedge book problems in late 1999, has persuaded its bankers to extend the deadline for its financial restructuring to January 12. The previous deadline was late December 2000. The new US$65m credit facility should be in place by mid-month. Cambior has also secured a $55m pre-paid forward sale of 234oz of gold. The company, whose shares had tumbled from more than C$7 at the start of 1999 to a token 47 cents by the end of December 2000, was caught out by the sudden upwards spike in the bullion price after the "Washington Agreement" in late September 1999. Under the agreement, European banks planned to limit sales and loans of gold. Another company hit by the price rise was Ashanti of Ghana. Both organised their hedge books of derivatives on the assumption that the gold price would remain weak. It had been trading at less than $260 an ounce before the agreement, but rose to $317 soon after the announcement. This left large notional losses on their hedge books, putting them under obligations to their bankers that they could not meet. Cambior has since tried to secure temporary finance from its bankers and sell its base metal assets in order to continue to develop its gold prospects. The proceeds of the sale of its zinc assets, the Bouchard-Hebert and Langlois mines in north-western Quebec, to Breakwater resources cut its debt by $45m. In December 1999 it owed more than $200m But the sale of its La Granja copper prospect in Peru, one of the world's largest undeveloped copper deposits, ran into problems after the unexpected departure of country's president, Alberto Fujimori. A state auction in parallel with its own sale was postponed, but the sale to Billiton was eventually successful. However, the combination of last minute legal problems and the Christmas holiday season combined to prevent it from meeting the late December bank deadline. It is still hoping to sell two more copper assets - El Pachon in Argentina and Carlota in Arizona. Canuck (01/01/01; 19:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44837) Hard landing/Soft landing That is to say,The debate over hard landing or soft landing will be resolved in 2001.Get a crash helmet and .......get gold. Canuck (01/01/01; 19:52:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 44836) Happy New Year to all Following up on Stranger's and FOA's note re:2001From the Ottawa Citizen Sat. Dec. 20, 2000:'2000 ends as a year most investors might like to forget'"The world economy and financial markets are ending the year on a very different note than what was evident at the beginning of 2000", said Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's chief economist Stephan Roach."Boom-like expectations have faded, and the debate focusing increasingly on whether the world can avoid a classic bust," said Mr. Roach."One way or another, that debate will be resolved in 2001"-End- LeSin (01/01/01; 19:43:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 44835) Trail Guide/FOA - Kind Sir TG/FOA,Welcome home and we trust matters and events in your life settle to a managable calm and peace. Thank you for your valued contribution and guidance. Happy New Year, I wish and pray you health, wealth and wisdom. "S"YES! YES! THIS IS THE START OF REMARKABLE IRREVERSABLE CHANGE! Canuck (01/01/01; 19:38:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 44834) @ Cavan Man I'll take a stab at your POO question.The markets are discounting oil (in the future) due to anticipated economic slowdown. A couple of months ago refinery capacity was 'maxed out' at some 96%. A few weeks ago I noticed capacity was down to about 91.6%. OPEC has noticed and is REDUCING production. They were conned (forced?) into too many production increases last year (2000) and now have to quickly backpeddle or else oil will be in the low 20's. Watch the refinery capacity, I think it is key to 'demand' for oil. If 91% of refineries supply the demand, excess oil is not required. Trail Guide (01/01/01; 19:35:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 44833) One more thing Happy 2001 to all! The year of change. Trail Guide (01/01/01; 19:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 44832) U.S. and EU Economies May Be Moving in Separate Directions http://www.iht.com/articles/5686.htm Hello Everyone,A while back I had to stop writing. Several important things have taken most of my time and continue to do so. I let MK know of the uncertain nature of my continuing these discussions at the same volume level as in the past. But, as time presents itself I will update as able. I hope to bring up to speed several past discussions that were left cut off. To do this, I'll have to conserve what writing time available by posting on the Gold Trail "as able". Here is a very good writer that has offered an excellent update of the Euro situation. Please enjoy his clarity. Link is above and a portion below.---------------------U.S. and EU Economies May Be Moving in Separate Directions William Pfaff International Herald Tribune Friday, December 29, 2000 " " The explanation for this emergent autonomy of the European economy would appear to be the creation and coming of age of the common currency, the euro. Before monetary union, European exchange and interest-rate policies were largely dictated by the defense of relatively weak currencies.This usually meant maintaining national interest rates at levels that depressed overall European domestic activity and growth. The EU countries' economic policies were indirectly determined by reaction to U.S. policy on the dollar, formulated with reference to U.S., not European, conditions.A pluralism of economic power has been on the way to restoration since the Europeans established their single market in 1992. Its achievement would mean that the world economy has two strong and autonomous supports, and that now seems nearer than ever before." " ---------------Thanks Trail Guide Chris Powell (01/01/01; 18:42:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 44831) GATA lawsuit publicized in The Australian http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/610 Investment column by James Dunn ofwww.investorweb.com.au.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@eGroups.com Chris Powell (01/01/01; 18:40:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 44830) Audio fund-raising promotion for GATA http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/609 Listen to it and ask webmasters topost it at their own sites.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@eGroups.com Chris Powell (01/01/01; 18:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44829) A letter to mining companies urging support for GATA http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/608 If only gold shareholders would senda few more of these....To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@eGroups.com Chris Powell (01/01/01; 18:06:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44828) Reg Howe on the Bush administration's adventure with gold http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/607 An analysis of how the new administrationmay react to the gold price-fixing lawsuit.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@eGroups.com Mr Gresham (01/01/01; 17:48:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 44827) Vilnis & tz -- worth reading http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=96317 Vilnis: "My suggestion of what would work: A 1000 to 1 exchange of old Federal Reserve notes for a new gold backed USA$ using the post revolutionary exchange of continentals for a new gold backed dollar as the model. That also was a 1000 to 1 exchange. "What I did not make clear is that this necessarily implies a 99.9% reduction in all debt. My suggested solution is based on Austrian and not Monetarist economics. My suggested solution eliminates in one stroke the debt problem and provides a new credible currency with which to start the whole process over again. "The people at the Fed are not dumb. They know there is a bubble. There are enough people at the Fed who understand that if the debt they created is not eliminated quickly it will be eliminated slowly, as in Japan: ten years and still counting. That would not do. The USA would lose its leadership role. That would put the USA system at risk: maybe civil war. Much better to get it all over with quickly and blame some one or some thing else for the pain: a war, short sellers, tax evaders, the drug cartel, libertarians etc. ""Under the Austrian economics model a recession or depression ends when prices are readjusted to a level at which transactions can clear so that people start to trade/exchange again. The major impediment to getting to that is debt so the quicker debt is written off the faster you can get to the point I would call party on. AG understands that. "That is as close as I can come up with the perfect crime and biggest bust out in the history of mankind. Starting in 1982 when the USA financial system is under water because third world debt will never be repaid, the solution is make the USA the worlds foremost tax haven for foreign nationals not resident in the USA. Over the next 18 years go from the worlds largest creditor nation to the worlds largest debtor nation. Suck in trillions of DM, SF, GBP etc. ..." SteveH (01/01/01; 17:46:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 44826) Must read http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/noland010201.html snippet:"The financial sector goes into "Crisis Management Reliquefication Mode (CMRM)." "CMRM entails immediate and aggressive action, with the old stalwart Goldman Sachs leading the charge. The firm takes a major leveraged position in Fannie Mae Long-Term Debt Securities to the tune of $50 billion. Since these are top-rated securities, this transaction is easily consummated by Goldman borrowing $50 billion in the money market (from the Money Market Fund using Fannie Mae Securities as collateral – a "repurchase agreement"). These "funds" are used to purchase $50 billion of the Household Sector's Fannie Mae Long-Term Debt Securities, held on account at Goldman Sachs. The $50 billion of proceeds are instantly deposited (electronic journal entry!) into the Money Market Funds on behalf of the client, the (now much more "liquid") Household Sector. In this case, Goldman's balance sheet increases by $50 billion to $250 billion, with Holdings of Long-Term Fannie Mae Securities increasing $50 billion (to $250 billion) and Borrowings from Money Market Fund ("Repo") also increasing $50 billion (to $250 billion). Total Household Sector Assets remain the same at $1.1 trillion. While Holdings of Fannie Mae Long-Term Debt Securities were reduced by $50 billion (to $50 billion), Money Market Fund Deposits increased $50 billion (to $450 billion). Through this leveraged transaction (an increase in financial sector liabilities/an expansion of financial credit!), Money Market Fund assets (broad money supply!) actually increased by $50 billion to $450 billion, with $250 billion of Holdings of Goldman Sach's Commercial Paper ("Repo") and $200 billion of Fannie Mae Commercial Paper. Money Market Fund liabilities "Deposits Owed to Household Sector" increased by $50 billion to $450 billion. Hopefully, this illustrates how financial sector leveraging increases so-called "liquidity," or the money supply." SteveH (01/01/01; 17:39:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44825) See the repost... www.kitco.com repost:Date: Mon Jan 01 2001 18:19Fubarite (GATA/ Howe make it to mainstream press in OZ) ID#19380:-Golden Chance Awaits Miners By JamesDunn, 02 Jan 2001 I have just finished reading Peter L. Bernstein's The Power of Gold, sub-titled The History of an Obsession ( John Wiley & Sons, $39.90, hardback ) and it got me thinking about the gold market. If, like me, you love a well-written economic history book, Bernstein's aptly titled ( and sub-titled ) book will make a perfect use for that book voucher you got for Christmas. Bernstein's major theme is that the gold market has never been – and can never be – a simple commodity market, because of all of the emotional capital we humans have invested in the yellow metal. After the excesses of the pillage of the new world by the old, this reached its zenith in the days of the gold standard, when the world's currencies were simply names for certain defined weights in gold. We have largely demonetised gold, in that it no longer backs our currencies. When the European Central Bank was formed to oversee the euro, only 15% of the reserves to back that currency were in the form of gold. Gold is still money, just not officially. Looking around the gold market these days, you would have to say that it is still far from simple: it is just that the complications are new. The gold market is artificial. The physical market – the annual trade in gold mined – is utterly dwarfed by the market in derivatives, gold futures and options contracts. US gold analyst Paul van Eeden calculates that about 260,000 tonnes of gold is turned over in total each year on the London Bullion Market – nearly twice the amount that has ever been mined. Only about 5000 tonnes of physical gold, says van Eeden, is traded each year. That is less than 2% of London turnover. The notorious central bank sales – which garner all the headlines about depressing the gold price – make up less than 0.12% of the gold market. Miners and consumers of gold are bit players. The derivatives market controls the gold price. Gold is not a supply/demand-driven market, it is an exchange rate-driven market, because the price is determined by the value of the US dollar. The US dollar has usurped from gold the role of asset of last resort. If the US dollar were to fall, the gold price as expressed in US dollars would improve. That would suit the Australian miners, whose gold price – expressed in $A – is actually very healthy. At the currency's record low of 51.1 US cents in October, the $A gold price hit a record high $A526 an ounce, a rise of almost 40% in a year. It is now at about $A496 an ounce. If an Australian miner is not able to achieve excellent margins at these prices, it should not be in business. The build-up in the gold derivatives market has created a huge overhang in the gold market. Nobody really knows how large it is, but two quixotic court cases aim to try. The first suit is dynamite stuff. It is being brought by one Reg Howe on behalf of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee ( GATA ) , which has accused some of the financial world's most powerful individuals and organisations of masterminding a global conspiracy to keep down the price of gold. First defendant is Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of the US. Joining Greenspan as defendants are soon-to-be-former US Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers, William McDonough, President of the Federal Reserve Board of New York, and the firms of Chase Manhattan, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Citibank and Goldman Sachs, among others. The suit alleges that, because the highly geared mountain of gold derivatives is mainly a bet on the gold price falling, all of the named parties have colluded to keep it from rising, so as to protect the global financial system from the consequences of the unravelling of the derivatives positions. The second is a class action filed in a US court by aggrieved shareholders of London-based Ashanti Goldfields, which almost fell into bankruptcy in 1999, when the value of its hedge book plummeted. It seemed that Ashanti had been too clever in trying to lock in forward prices for the gold it was mining in Ghana. Now Ashanti shareholders are demanding unspecified damages for alleged "reckless financial speculation". The shareholders are alleging that when they thought they were shareholders in a gold mining company, Ashanti was actually gambling with exotic financial instruments, the success of which required the price of gold to fall indefinitely. Ashanti chief executive officer Sam Jonah and ex-chief financial officer Mark Keatley are also named personally as defendants. Tilting at windmills? Maybe. Quite possibly, by the end of the cases, investors will know more about the real gold price, and the intricacies of hedging activity, than ever before. At least, the prospect of a decline in the US dollar – more real for investors – is in the offing for gold shares, which should make the Australian branch of the industry appear good value indeed on a global scale. This article first appeared in the Weekend Australian of December 30-31 TheStranger (01/01/01; 16:59:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 44824) Cavan Man This time of year, people who heat with oil have largely filled their tanks, yet we are months away from the summer driving season. Additionally, all of the world's energy resources have been operating close to capacity. This is why the respite in oil prices. However, this month OPEC will no doubt impose an export reduction of 500,000 or more barrels per day. Believe me, oil may touch below $25 from time to time, but that is all. I would expect prices to average at least in the high 20s as summer approaches.Hope that helps.Thanks to you and Genoo for your acknowledgements today. TheStranger (01/01/01; 16:51:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44823) Awesome Money Supply Numbers I just went digging and found last Thursday's money supply report. Seasonally adjusted M-3 rose $55 Billion in a single week. This brings the 4 week total to $105 billion, an annualized growth rate of about 18%, not the 12% I mentioned here earlier.A quick glance at your dictionary will assure you that this is the very definition of inflation. You can forget all of this talk about the Fed being stingy with interest rates. The Fed is hitting U.S. banks where it counts. There is no other word for this kind of money growth but awesome. Clearly recent employment numbers, along with the poor Christmas retail environment have spurred Greenspan into action. Whether he is too late to avoid a recession or not is still debatable, but he obviously has been buying treasurys and lots of 'em.Why does this matter to a bunch of gold bugs? Because in the conflict which presently exists between supporting the dollar and saving the economy, these numbers indicate clearly that the decision has been made. DAMN THE DOLLAR. FULL SPEED AHEAD! Cavan Man (01/01/01; 16:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 44822) Article at Bloomberg RE: OPEC How can you believe anything written about the oil market? Why are prices dropping with strong demand, loss of refinery capacity, no enough tanker capacity, low inventories etc etc etc ad infinitum? Anyone want to take a stab at this one? Cavan Man (01/01/01; 15:17:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 44821) HBM I'll buy you a hot chocoloate anytime good Sir Knight. Cavan Man (01/01/01; 15:17:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 44820) "the Stranger" Why, if I didn't know you better, I'd think you were a Utah BEAR. Not too many bears in Missouri; that's why I sometimes feel like an endangered species. :>) Genoo (01/01/01; 15:07:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44819) The Round Table Topic: The Stranger msg#44810 Peter Asher msg#44813 Hill Billy Mitchell msg#44815 to name a fewFor myself, today is a day of thanks.The Stranger offers his eagle's eye view of the economy, with humility ie. 'for what it's worth'. Yet his is clearly a very informed view that reflects a lot of homework and a lot of thought...all of which is freely shared.Peter Asher says 'have a look at where the shepherds are leading the flock'. In so doing, he instead places the focus on a single issue ie. the interaction, between on the one hand, the experts, who make sounds, who after all are mere mortals expressing their opinion [or are they], and on the other hand, those who listen, and either don't think for themselves or do think, depending on their makeup.So, at what other place I wonder, does one find such an individual group of thinkers...and yet at the same time, a place where one can let it all hang out and it be ok ie. Hill Billy Mitchell. Search me. Hey MK, I like your round table. LeSin (01/01/01; 15:06:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 44818) SIR HBM @ Holtzman Sir HBMThank you for your rebuttal and discourse. Whilst I respect Mr Holtzman's right to his own beleif, views and opinions and will protect his right to express them, I for one, Sir HBM much prefer your stance and convictions by Faith. Your perspective and Faith can only be founded and anchored to the Rock; and He and His Father in heaven provide Golden Wisdom. Thank you and a healthy properous New Year to All. "S"P/S: A man I once met, similar to Floyd, simply would say "Oh pardon me, a man gots to do what a man gots to do". "S" Golden Truth (01/01/01; 14:58:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 44817) To ThaiGold Thats some fantasy you got in your head, Silver goes up ten fold and of course GOLD only doubles???? You must be sitting on alot of Silver that you can't sell at a profit and then buy Gold. So you'll try to get others to believe that Silver will go higher, so they sell their GOLD to buy more Silver or you just need a truckload of GOLD yourself. It must really suck being short so much GOLD! Why don't you go post on a Silver forum if you think Silver is the place to be, your commentary is always misleading and today was no different. :-( P.S i'll see you when GOLD blows right through $2000/oz. G.T Leigh (01/01/01; 13:30:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 44816) Hill Billy Mitchell What a heartwarming post! I'm still laughing! You share the qualities of humility and gentleness with Floyd, and I'm glad you brought his story to the Table Round.Whoops, my husband's calling - back to the kitchen we've been remodeling for the past few weeks. Cabinets are going in. Bye! Hill Billy Mitchell (01/01/01; 13:06:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44815) PARDON ME FOR LIVING I would like to offer my sincere apology to Michael and all on this forum. I knew an old man, homeless I think. His name was Floyd. He was passing through Cape Girardeau, Mo. some 30 years ago. When I say passing through I mean passing through. He was walking. Winter was coming on and the old man was heading south.My best friend saw him walking along the highway and took him home to give him a few good meals, a few good nights' sleep, and a warm shelter. A few days later he dropped Floyd off (Floyd's request) in the same spot where he picked him up. We never saw Floyd again.While Floyd was at my friend's house my family, wife and daughters, had the occasion to visit and eat around the table with Floyd and whoever might find a seat. My friend almost never sat down to a meal at his own dining table without at least a few visitors. His was simply the most hospitable family ever to grace the city of Cape Girardeau. They had little in the way of material things. He was a carpenter by trade, self-employed and took mostly handyman jobs, which did not pay much but made for lots of different jobs and opportunities to meet lots and lots of people and invite them to his home for a visit. This family lived a very humble life. Their largest monthly expenditure was on food (they had six children) mostly because of all the guests which routinely showed up. They made it a point to always have enough food on hand to feed at least 20 or thirty people just in case a large number showed up. Suddenly it occurs to me that I should not be presenting this story in the past tense because nothing has changed with them for the last 30 years. If I were to drop in on them tomorrow I would be treated not only to a meal but would also probably be in the company of someone whom I had never met with the opportunity to make an instant new friend.Now back to Floyd. He was a very large man and could consume huge amounts of food. He also had a problem with flatulence. We got use to his breaking wind often and loudly at the dining table. Each time he did this he would say, "PARDON ME FOR LIVING." Floyd was a very humble man and very gentle with the children. He was so wonderful in so many ways that no one took offence to his problem with flatulence. Many of us old friends still reminisce about Floyd. We have guessed that Floyd might have been an angel being entertained unawares.Now to the point of this post. I know that the purpose of this forum is to discuss PM's, namely gold, and the economics and the financial market dynamics which affect the subject. That is why I lurk so much. It is of great interest to me and I have the opportunity to learn about these things more quickly here than any other place on earth. Besides the efficiency of learning, it is great fun to visit this forum and is an opportunity to get to know some real thinkers.Now when Sir Holtzman posted his religious thoughts he stirred something inside me, something which has nothing to do with gold. It was my understanding that he e-mailed his offering to Michael and that Michael gave his tacit approval to the topic by posting it for him. I took that to mean that Michael would not be opposed to equal time. I may have taken more than my equal time.When Floyd broke wind he did it to relieve pressure. He had no choice. He could not help himself. He was just unable to hold the gas in. The same thing happened to me when I read Sir Holtzman's post. I just broke some wind. I did it to relieve pressure. I had no choice. I could not help myself. I was just unable to hold back. I called it, "earnestly contending for the FAITH once delivered to the saints". When one reads Holtzman's post in its entirety one should have no difficulty seeing why one who believes what I believe could not simply remain silent.I shall try to refrain from using too much band space on religious thoughts in the future. Michael, I can only think of one way to apologize in true sincerity. I can only say along with Floyd, "PARDON ME FOR LIVING." I cannot promise to never to let off gas again should the pressure build beyond my ability to hold it back. When doing so I will try to remember to reveal my subject in advance by placing in the subject area, - PARDON ME FOR LIVING.Sir you have been the most congenial of hosts. You have put up with a lot on this forum. The wisdom of your tolerance is very clear. I will continue to do a bit of janitorial work. If you object I prefer to be warned rather than having my posting privileges removed.The best to you and to all who lurk and post.HBMVRHBM auspec (01/01/01; 12:48:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 44814) Peter Asher/ All Enjoyed your piece, Days of Gold Gone By! Thank you.Couple of tidbits {Tedbits in this case}- The rumors of Ted Butler's literary demise were premature. He has a new article out & he is still on the frontlines of the silver war. That is more exciting to me than any of the football games {why is football no longer interesting?}!A recent article by Edmond Bugos quoted George Seldes from 1942 to the effect that "public opinion is generally the most powerful force in America". I found this to be rather profound today, even though on its face it is quite simple. It does pertain to this Forum as this is a place where 'public' opinions are both expressed and formed. We are in a cultural war folks and we cannot shirk from that fact. I wrote a letter to my Congressman yesterday encouraging him to seriously look into the gold manipulation frauds and GATA claims. I'm quite sure he's not gonna peer too deeply under the IMF, Fed Reserve, or GS rocks as it is pretty hideous under them. On the other hand he does have some vested interests that align with our side. I am also aware that I have completely "come out of the closet" in this free market/cultural war over the last several years; they won't have to search too hard if they want to start rounding up the "dangerous elements".Please allow me to ask a few {redundant} questions--1- Do you want to live in a country where you are afraid to express your deepest concerns to your elected representatives?2- Do you live in a country where you are afraid to express your deepest concerns to your elected representatives?3- Are you afraid to express your deepest concerns to your elected rerresentatives?Let's keep in mind that "public opinion is generally the most powerful force in America". What we post here and elsewhere, what we write to our officials, however we express ourselves matters a great deal. I will put out a satirical piece later this week that goes right up to the edge {and well past it} of maligning Sir Scumbag in terms that much of our culture can relate to, knowing full well that many others would like to see me donate some Georgia Mountain oysters for same. So be it, I refuse to hide from the cultural war we are in. No DENIAL here.Thanks for the ear!GO GATA, GOLD, & SILVER. Scumbags away.......... Peter Asher (01/01/01; 11:55:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 44813) Since it's a quite day here, Have a look at where the shepherds are leading the flock. Street experts see better days in 2001 By Adam Shell, USA TODAY NEW YORK — After the market's dismal performance this year, you'd think Wall Street seers would have soured on stocks. They haven't. Strategists from 10 of the top brokerages expect battered stocks to bounce back and post double-digit gains in 2001. On average, 10 investment pros interviewed by USA TODAY think the Standard & Poor's 500 index will rise 18% by the end of next year. Even considering Wall Street's propensity to be bullish, that mindset might seem surprising considering how the market is limping into 2001: The S&P was down more than 9.2% for 2000 as of Thursday's close, its worst year since a 9.7% loss in 1981. Down 37.1%, the Nasdaq will post its worst year since being created in 1971, barring a massive 11th-hour rally. The Dow industrials are down 5.5%, the first annual loss since 1990. So what about 2001? UBS Warburg strategist Edward Kerschner is the biggest bull. He expects the S&P 500 to end next year at 1715, a hefty 29% above Thursday's 1334 close. Stocks should move higher, he says, because they've taken such a beating that they're selling for less than they are worth. "The glass isn't half full, it's empty," says Kerschner, noting that the S&P's price-earnings ratio is almost 20% below where he says it should be. Douglas Cliggott of J.P. Morgan is the most bearish and is preaching caution. "Be careful," he says. He expects a rough start for stocks and a modest recovery in the third and fourth quarters. His year-end S&P target: 1400, a 5% gain. Cliggott expects flat profit growth for the S&P 500 in 2001. That's a far cry from the 6% to 8% growth analysts expect. "There's a lot more negative earnings news in the pipeline," Cliggott says. Another negative: Investors burned by the Nasdaq's 49% plunge from its high are likely to decrease their exposure to stocks, he says. But forecasting stock prices is an inexact science. Last year, most strategists got it all wrong. Most predicted gains. The weight of six interest rate increases, the bursting of the tech-stock bubble, record high energy prices, a slowing economy and election uncertainty took stocks down hard. Year-end 2001 targets for the Dow range from 12,000, a 10% gain from 10,869 Thursday, to 13,000, a 20% jump. How will hard-hit tech stocks fare next year? Bulls such as Christine Callies, strategist at Merrill Lynch who started the year on a conservative note, expect techs to stage a recovery. "The big driver of rising stock prices will be lower interest rates," she says. Merrill expects the Federal Reserve to slash short-term interest rates by at least 1 percentage point by midyear. A slowdown in tech spending, she says, is already factored into stock prices. Less exuberant strategists like A.G. Edwards' Stuart Freeman expect tech stocks to remain under pressure. "We've had a significant shift in psychology," he says. "We won't have the type of activity that will result in another frenzy." Peter Asher (01/01/01; 11:23:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44812) ThaiGold msg#: 44804) Thank you for the sentiment.However, I think you missed the point of what the Net facilitated. Most of these books were obtained from private individuals and only through the connectivity of WWW could this kind of contact been established. Absent this phenomena, which even then required many days worth of search, negotiate, arrange and recieve, it could not have occured at all. goldenpeace (01/01/01; 09:43:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 44811) New Year Wishes... Gold and Peace You are all the best.Bowing to youPaul TheStranger (01/01/01; 09:33:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44810) 2001 Outlook For what it's worth, this is a message I wrote to clients this morning. I only have a few clients, and I do not accept new ones.Aftermath of the Technology BubbleCorporate Debt at Dangerous Levels With the bursting of the tech bubble on Wall Street, the speculative binge of the past couple of years has now ended. The year 2000 was the worst in history for technology stocks, with the NASDAQ recording nearly a 40% loss. But the speculation in stocks was not the only risk-taking that went wrong in the recent past. Far from it, in fact. Emboldened by an accommodative Fed and by talk of a "new era" of perpetual prosperity, American corporations have leveraged themselves to the hilt. Many may now find it difficult, in a slowing economy, to pay their debts and meet rising expenses. For months already, thousands of dot.com workers have been losing their jobs. But now lay-offs are spreading to such"old economy" companies as General Motors and Gillette, while names like Montgomery Ward and LTV are announcing they will shut their doors for good. Consequently, as of their December meeting, the Fed has now given up even the pretense of fighting inflation. Despite the greatest cost-of-living increases Americans have seen in 10 years, the Fed has said they now view recession as a greater risk to the economy, and they have adjusted policy accordingly. Of course, as I have argued in the past, high levels of money growth have meant the Fed wasn't really fighting inflation anyway. So, on top of everything else, are we now in a recession? Perhaps. Technically, a recession is when gross domestic product shrinks for two consecutive quarters. Alan Greenspan does not wish to be blamed if that happens in 2001. Consequently, in recent weeks, the Fed has accelerated the rate of money growth in the American banking system. During the first 3 weeks of December, the broadest traditional money measure, M-3, grew by $50 billion. If maintained, this rate of growth would constitute an annual increase of more than 12%, which may be just what the doctor ordered for an ailing economy. But, with official inflation already close to 4%, a monetary expansion on this scale virtually guarantees still more inflation is on the way. In the 70s, this was Called "Stagflation"And not since the 1970s have there been so many signs of stagflation. Last week, for example, Fed Ex announced a 4% rate increase for overnight package delivery. This comes atop another 4.9% increase which was announced earlier in the year, meaning that customers will now pay 9% more than they did just 12 months ago. The reason given by the company was that business is slowing now, forcing them to spread their costs over a smaller number of packages. In other words, if they can't make more money by growing the company, they will make it simply by charging more. With exploding costs for all forms of energy and for employee health care coverage, this mentality is almost certain to spread through much of corporate pricing in the months ahead. Meanwhile, America's energy companies continue to shine in a largely bleak investment landscape. This is because oil, oil service and natural gas producers are presently enjoying their greatest period of profitability ever. Insufficient infrastructure investment in each of these areas has left them vulnerable to shortages in the period immediately ahead. This month, people all over America will open their heating bills and be shocked by what they see. Yet several OPEC members are already hinting that further production cuts are in store for their January meeting. Whatever happens in the months ahead, the U.S. economy is clearly in for some tough sledding. The likelihood of a weakening dollar has seldom been greater, in my view. For this reason, I believe energy and precious metals stocks, such as the ones we own, will be productive investments in the year 2001. Orville Goldenbacher (01/01/01; 09:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 44809) gold on credit i have a friend who regularly purchases gold bullion on his credit cards, he calls it his "life insurance policy".he says he pays $200 in cc payments for each $10,000 in gold he purchases. he claims the interest on his payments is 2.99% to 9.9% apr.for example, he just purchased 10 liberty double eagles for $3325.00 ("premium quality BU, includes shipping).his payments are approx $70 per month for such a purchase.i ask him if he ever worries about not being able to come up with the payments, he says gold bullion is all he puts on his cards and if he was ever hurting to make a payment, he'd just "sell a coin". Perplexed (01/01/01; 07:36:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 44808) Ski on margins Ski you offer an intersting idea and lay another possibility on the table. As you indicate, whether you are right or wrong is not provable at this time, however, I, and I think most of your other fellow members, like and appreciate your critical thinking.In my opinion gold is languishing because few people in the USA have any interest in it. New housing starts, automobile sales, and anything which can be purchased on credit has been setting new records for the last 10 years. Our nation is being beseiged with such an enormous quantity of merchandise, very attractively priced, very professionally merchandised with deals you can't refuse, and, very simply, many of your fellow citizens don't even try. Some people would buy an ocean liner docked in Omaha, if they could get it on credit.In a nut shell, wealth, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. A new red Harley offers far more sex appeal, sense of excitement, and thus a lot brighter shine than a pocket full of gold coins, and besides, all these attributes may be enjoyed so long as you don't forget send the payment each month.When you add this possibility, to your possibility, and the many other possibilities offered on this forum, including government manipulation, the fact that gold is even at $275 seems almost a miracle. Thanks again for your contribution to the forum.We may not get the problem solved, but at least for me, the challenge offers far more appeal than what is being merchandised as entertainment by any of the television networks.Still Perplexed WAC (Wide Awake Club) (01/01/01; 06:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 44807) @ThaiGold - PMs in Africa "African countries will find it easy to transition to precious metal based coin and currencies. Of the international standard. Afterall, they will be the majorproviders of metals to many non-resource abundant countries. (Europe etc)"Can you please name just ONE african country that can say it as ownership of it's resources? Does Mali own it's gold? Does Ghana own it's gold.? Does .... For the answer to the question of ownership of african sources, please consult Goldman Sachs, Shell et al. Flatlander (01/01/01; 06:37:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 44806) Happy New Year May the New Year bring you GOLDEN Health, Wealth, and Happiness! ski (01/01/01; 04:23:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44805) Re-kindle of my post #44564 of 12-27 ... forced margin liquidations When you re-kindle a smoldering fire, three things are required: stir up the hot coals already there, add some additional fuel and patiently wait for results. In that same spirit, I thought that it would be productive to re-kindle my post #44564 of 12-27.In that post, I suggested that PM prices are not quite responding to the known supply and demand fundamentals as would be expected. I then suggested a possible conclusion that: A temporary situation may exist whereby STOCK MARKET MARGIN CALLS are having a negative and significant impact on PM prices.From my list of 77 different twists that can significantly influence the SUPPLY & DEMAND EQUATION for an given investment area, I will bring two more into the discussion.#67 MARKET PARTICIPANTS AT THE MARGIN (A Doug Casey thought) "The market price for real estate is not being established by the 98% of the participants that are merely holding but rather by the 2% of the people that are currently in the market doing the buying and selling." Thus, the price of real estate is actually being determined AT THE MARGINS and by only 2% of the participants. In essence, the supply and demand fundamentals of this minority are the ONLY force that are determining current market direction. To what extent is your investment area subject to this "at the margin" phenomena? What are the supply and demand fundamentals for this pivotal "at the margin" group?I believe that the PM markets are likewise subject to this "at the margin" phenomena. Only the active participants on any given day, are actually having an influence on PM price. Individuals on the sidelines are in fact, having negligible influence on price. Granted, we buy and sell PM's more often than houses and therefore the percentages may be more like 10% to 90%. But nonetheless and by default, only members of the select 10% group are steering the market ... no matter what you think or believe should otherwise be happening. Therefore, a careful analysis of the make-up and supply and demand fundamentals for the 10% players, should result in a much better explanation of near term PM price action. #35 NEED FOR A WORLD VIEW. Attractiveness with regard to local, national and worldwide supply and demand forces. Currently, no new nuclear electrical generation plants are being built in the US and none are planned. In the US, everyone knows that the industry is practically dead. Nonetheless, Korea and China are building nuc plants like gangbusters and the world demand for fresh uranium is in a solid uptrend. Without a world view, you would be completely off the mark in your analysis & you would have missed out on a golden investment opportunity. Is the investment a "buy", "sell" or "hold" with regard to local, national and international concerns? What are the "worldwide investors" doing with your commodity? What does the world think?I mentioned in my previous post that stock markets were falling worldwide and that the NASDAQ was leading the charge. Doesn't it also follow that stock market margin calls may be taking place worldwide? If this is true, then a pool of forced sellers of PM's is much larger and of a different character than the typical NASDAQ participant. They may have some PM's to sell. This un-acknowledged group of margin forced sellers could be the pivotal responsible party for our present un-happy PM prices.I would be the first to admit that almost none of this can be proven. But, by the same token, it is likewise diffiult to disprove as well. The logic is facinating don't you think? Was it worth re-kindling the fire? ThaiGold (01/01/01; 01:51:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44804) Robin's Book Gift Attn: Peter Asher Hi PeterYour post of yesterday (?) about the set of rare "The Story Of"books, that Robin miraculously rounded up and gave to youfor Christmas, was quite moving.But I think you overstated the helpfulness of the Internet.Surely, a person with as big a heart as Robin, would haveobtained them for you, even without the Internet. It mightjust have taken her a few days longer.She deserves another, even bigger hug from you. Right now.!.More priceless than Gold. Got you one.!.Cordially,ThaiGold Peter Asher (01/01/01; 00:09:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44803) Days of Gold Gone By Should Gold's true value be forgot.And never brought to mindThen pour a cup, of memories,To days of Gold Lang Syne.ChorusFor gold Lang Syne my friends,For Gold Lang Syne,Come drink a toast to our good hostAnd days of Gold Lang SyneColumbus sailed across the sea,When silver reigned supreme,And golden coin, did men then join,For wealth beyond their dreams.ChorusTo Gold Lang Syne my friends,To Gold Lang Syne,We raise our silver goblets highTo days of Gold Lang SyneThrough intervening centuriesWere hatched the Fiat plans,To relegate the one true wealthTo ore beneath the sands.ChorusFor Gold lang Syne my friends,For Gold Lang Syne,So hoist a toast to golden friendsAnd days of Gold Lang SyneThen ventured we, upon this page,And loudly did proclaim.That Fiat money soon would cease,To be the Master's gameChorusTo Gold Lang Syne my friends,To Gold Lang Syne,And now we toast, our Forum hostAnd days of Gold Lang SynePut golden coins upon the shelf,And silver bars so fine.Protect your wealth, and drink the health,OF - DAYS - OF - GOLD, LANG, SYNE!Thanks to The Scot for searching out the original lyricsCopyright Peter Asher 28 Dec.99 ThaiGold (01/01/01; 00:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 44802) My New Millenium Predictions aka: ThaiGold's 2001 WishList ALL: Wishing everyone in the Forum, a Happy New Year.!.==========================================As we enter this New Millenium, 2001 holds alot of promise. Let's hope thenext 1000 years will be better than the last 1000 years. Afterall, it couldn'tbe much worse, could it.?.Predictions, accurate ones, are not my forte'. As most of you know. But at leastallow me to put forth my WishList. I cannot see into the future as far as mostof you can. So I'll limit the scope to only the next four years.[Energy]Top of my list. Everyone's list. Continued shortage of refinery capacitiesand increased wastefull consumption will lead to extreme conservation measuresenacted (once again) by government. Remember the 55 MPH speed limit.?. It'llbe back. Remember Nukes.?. They're gunna be back in vogue. Remember Clean AirStandards.?. Out. Like the lights of Kalifornia.New energy sources will become economically feasible. Look for breakthroughsin Solar grids. Look for Shale-to-Oil. Remember coal.?. Better look it up.But transcending all of those, will be new (small) (in-home) Fuel Cells. Usingwater as fuel. Yes, water. And Platinum. And Silver. It's so easy, to electrolyzeHydrogen and Oxygen from water. Burn it to create heat; make steam; turn yourturbine; and use a tiny fraction of the electricity produced to feedback intothe electrolyzer. Even smaller Fuel Cells will be adapted to autos and trucks.It's common sense, not perpetual motion. Trust me.[Stock Markets]After DOW and NASDAQ (et al) crash to 500 and 50 (respectively) several new ruleswill be enacted to stabilize such markets. The biggest will be the banning of anyand all "short" sales. If you ain't got it, you cannot sell it. Nor manipulate it.[Precious Metal Shares]Gold/Silver/Platinum/Palladium producers (mines) will see their shares vastlyoutperform any of the other stock market shares. (see below -- $USTSC & $USTGC).Meaning, ones that currently have *real* production and facilities. And ones nothamstrung with faulty hedging programs of the past.[Other Paper Markets]Hapless "investors" in the Futures Markets (Gold/Silver/Platinum/Palladium) havingseen all their Metal Delivery Contracts evaporate into UnDeliverable status, willwelcome the new rules to be enacted: No more "short" sales, except from bonafide(mining companies) producers, and then, not for more than a proven-capability ofa single year's forward production. Sellers will require a government license. Andbuyers too.!. (see below) Only bonafide producers and fabricators will be allowedto participate in PM "Futures". These will even become somewhat pointless.[Derivitives]Commodity and Stock Options, Puts, Calls, Index Funds, and all forms of Derivitiveswill be banned. As nothing more than proxies for gambling. Market Stability becomesthe paramount concern of the regulators. These have not and never will, contributeto authentic market activity. You wanna gamble.?. Go to Vegas. Or your nearestNative American Casino. Fun is where you find it. You won't find it in the Markets.[US Dollar]Defined as "Federal Reserve Notes" (FRNs). These will "decline" until they reach theirultimate "strength": Equal to one of the new USTreasury-issued $USTSC or $USTGC forms.(see below).[Federal Reserve Bank(s)]FRB Chairman Alan Greenspan will be seen as foot-dragging or powerless to controla spiraling (downward) USA economic system. The New Administration will phase outthe FRB concept. And replace it with the Constitutionally mandated US Treasury asthe ultimate and absoloute source of (Congressionally Decreed) (NEW) USA currency.(see below). The FRB and Branches will become "nationalized" and function as localBranches of the US Treasury. No-more an automonous privately held unaccountablenightmare of credit and manipulation. Greenspan is out. Secretary of Treasury isthe new Currency/Credit Czar. Accountable to the President. Congress. And the People.[$USTSC & $USTGC]USTreasury Silver Certificates and USTreasury Gold Certificates will be issued tophase out FRNs. Issued directly by the US Treasury. Backed by the Full Faith andCredit of the US Government. And backed by whatever Silver and Gold remains inthe US & FRB-NY vaults. Plus (mandated) ALL future Silver and Gold production thatcomes from the (USA) mines. US Treasury is the (mandated) only buyer of it, withfew exceptions, by government permit, for industrial fabricators.$USTSC circulates side by side with US Silver Eagles, at face value.(1 $USTSC= 1oz Silver)$USTGC circulates side by side with US Gold Eagles, at face value.(1 $USTGC = 1oz Gold)FRNs will decline in quantity to become interexchangeable, until withdrawn completely.That means, they will become STRONGER in purchasing power, as it takes only 50 ofthem to purchase a new $USTGC or 1oz Gold Eagle. Ditto in the case of $USTSC, the oldFRNs will become stronger, whereupon only one is required to purchase one $USTSC oran oz of Silver. But initially, FRNs will remain as Legal Tender for purposes ofmonetizing preexisting US Dollar-denominated Debt(s). Public and Private. Duringthat period, they remain a "weaker" fiat currency, needing 500 to purchase 1oz Goldor 50 to purchase 1 oz Silver. It sounds confusing, but isn't. Trust me.[EURO]The European Common Union's EURO will be forced to undergo a similar transformationto remain competive for world trade, and to have local credibility with populace.It will emerge in forms similarly backed by Silver and Gold. A similar phase outprocess will occur. EURO SC and EURO GC will become identical in valuation to the$USTSC and $USTGC coin and currencies. All or any of those will be (eventually)accepted at par, as Legal Tender, in the newly stabilized world trade environmentas well as newly invigorated local economies.[Other Currencies]Silver and Gold backed equivilent currencies will become a necessity for all othernations. And well to their advantage to do so. Hey.!. You wanna "trade" with us.?.Then get-real with your coins and currencies. Fiat is Finished.[New Common Markets]Latin America (South, Central, and Mexico) will form a Latin America Common Market.Call it the LACM. Their Silver based common-valued coin and currencies will providethe stability for growth and integrity required of them to become vibrant and strong.Asian Countries will form similar Common Markets. And institutionalize similarSilver and Gold backed international standard coins and currencies.Mid-Eastern countries, OPEC etc, will be quick to join in favoring standardizedSilver and Gold based coin and currencies. They will accept nothing else for theircoveted oil. They will not want to be left behind or cheated with fiat any longer.African countries will find it easy to transition to precious metal based coinand currencies. Of the international standard. Afterall, they will be the majorproviders of metals to many non-resource abundant countries. (Europe etc)Russia and the old remnants of the USSR will not wish to remain outside the worldcircle of PM based coin and currency. Rich in PM's, they need only institute rigidsafeguards to insure their mine production(s) actually reach their Government(s)Treasuries, for the subsequent and required minting and currency backing. PresidentPutin of Russia, will be strong enough and savvy enough to ramrod this into being,and get tough on the corruption that currenty saps that region's great PM wealth.Canada, of course, being rich in Precious Metals, will welcome similar revisionsto their coin and currency. Once again they will become proud of their Maple Leafcoins of Silver and Gold. And Loonies will no longer be looney.Australia, also rich in PM's, will lead the way to a rebuilt "Common Union" withCanada, and the United Kingdom. This will be very popular with their citizens,and as an act of comradarie, assit England (UK) to become strong and prosperousonce again. A new "Empire", based upon Common Markets, and commonized PM money.[POG / POS]The "Price of Gold" or "Price of Silver" will become a thing of the past. Meaninglessterminology. The "price" of Gold, will be, simply, an ounce of Gold, or a standardizedGold Certificate issued by any number of cooperating countries. And too, the "price"of Silver is simply, one ounce of Silver, or 1/50th ounce of Gold. And yes, the"price" of Gold will also be defined as simply fifty ounces of Silver. See how easy.!.In terms of the old (to be phased out) FRNs (and even old EUROs) you will see atransitionary period where these will be "deflated" to an equilibrium valuation.Then withdrwan from circulation (see above). So, initially, during the transitionperiod, people may talk in terms of Gold is at $500/oz in FRNs, or Silver is $50/ozin FRNs. Knowing this, you will, of course, not get caught holding FRNs for verymuch longer. Will you.?.[Real Estate]Housing, and the Property(s) upon which it's built, as well as pristine undevelopedproperty will, as always, retain it's intrinsic value. And continue to appreciateas it inevitable becomes more scarce. Never underestimate the "value" of primereal estate, as a preserver of wealth. Beware of speculation bubbles that have, inthe past, overvalued or inflated it unrealistically. Under the new coin and currencystandards, nothing changes any of that.[Credit and Banking]In previous eras, when money was linked solidly to precious metals, Banks were ableto thrive and modestly increase the money supply. Via sensible credit and lendingpractices. Strictly controlled "reserve" requirements will be instituted by the(US)(and other government's) Treasury(s). Gold and Silver Certificate Banking, toinclude checking and savings accounts, will be as safe as FDIC-insured nowadays.Credit, in those days was generally "secured" loans. We will see a return to thatconcept, with little if any "unsecured" flippant credit. A vibrant economy doesnot need alot of unsecured credit. It's dangerous and counter productive.Growth in the Money Supply comes from two sources in the future:(1) Mine Production and (2) Sensibly controlled Lending by Banks.[Consumer Prices & Inflation]These will stabilize within reasonable ranges, priced in the new coins/currencies.There will be a transitionary period of helter-skelter "inflation" in terms of theold (to be phased out) FRNs. But generally, nothing to be alarmed about. No hyper-inflation, and no $30,000/oz Gold is on the horizon. It ain't gunna happen. Thegovernment(s) will step in way before that could ever materialize. Using allof the above to thwart such unthinkable chaos. Governments are dumb, but they arenot stupid. And, as always, they, and only they, determine what you call "money".Just deal with it. Be prepared personally. And enjoy the New Millenium.!.Cordially,ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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