USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

USAGOLD Menu BAR

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

(Discussion Forum Hall of Fame)

(The Gold Trail)

("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

Select date of the archive you wish to view

Month Day Year
Archives date back to September 22, 1998

WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

(View Today's Discussion) (View Previous Day's Discussion) (View Next Day's Discussion)

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/11/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

YGM (1/11/06; 23:51:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 140379)
Goldilox.. But to really track an investment banker's involvement
You also have to know what their (Banks) loan involvement, advisory capacity is with the miners in question and the position the banker holds in Gold futures market. They hold leverage with loans (and are financial advisers) and can force or convince the miner to forward sell which is needed by the banker to depress Gold prices. ie; Goldman Sucks and Ashanti. Very muddy waters and very big conflicts of interest and VERY big money involved in these games played.

Gandalf the White (1/11/06; 21:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140378)
OOPS -- The US$ is at a ---CRITICAL --- level AGAIN !! <;-)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
Watch that 88.78 level !!!
The NEXT waterfall is going to be BEAUTIFUL for the YELLOW !
GO SPIKE, JUMP.
<;-)

Goldilox (1/11/06; 20:01:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 140377)
JPM
@ Golden Lionheart,

If what you're watching is the retail trading scene, your observations may still be good news.

But to really track an investment banker's involvement, you need to know about the warrants held against loans, and the amount of float they received for client sales if they participated in the IPO, etc.

The daily volume is often just the tip of the iceberg, especially for companies that are getting additional financing with secondary offerings and such.

If they hold a lot of warrants, the trick is to run up the price, and then sell the warrants at a profit, all the while looking like an accumulator at Level II.

Golden Lionheart (1/11/06; 17:54:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 140376)
J P Morgan
but with J P Morgan I mainly see buying and holding..............

Flatliner (1/11/06; 17:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140375)
@Golden Lionheart
http://www.thesanitycheck.com/
Looks like the bobosrevenge.blogspot.com site now points to the link above. If you're suspicious of the "pump and dump" comment, give this site a read regarding naked short selling. Enjoy. (Maybe, see also: http://www.bobosrevenge.blogspot.com/)

Goldilox (1/11/06; 16:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 140374)
JPM
@ golden lionheart,

Astute observation, but if you'd been following a few more inside tracks, you'd find that the "bankster boyz" are all playing "pump and dump" with the gold miners.

Puplava discusses it ad nauseum. I often wonder why he plays gold stocks if it irritates him so much.

Goldilox (1/11/06; 16:39:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 140373)
Exponential Oil curve
@ Flatliner,

Why not? The dollar/debt curve is an almost textbook hyperbola. Just who's driving this bus?

The geniuses on CNBC today were remarking that any disruption in Iranian oil flow to Europe would result in a greater than $10 pop in Lt Sweet.

"No schweet, Sherock!" They made it sound astounding, when it's probably a very conservative estimate.

Golden Lionheart (1/11/06; 16:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 140372)
J P Morgan and Affiliates
I don't really follow the GATA story closely but I seem to recall that they see J P Morgan as one of the villians.

It is therefore interesting to see that J P Morgan Nomineees or J P Morgan Chase Company feature in the top 20 shareholder lists of many of the Australian gold producers and emerging gold companies.

To quote an example J P Morgan Chase has just raised its stake in a company in the State of Victoria to 8%.

To my simple mind this seems to indicate that Morgans anticipate a rise in the price of gold.

Any thoughts/comments?

Flatliner (1/11/06; 14:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 140371)
Eerie feeling
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.G06&v=dmax
Does anyone else see an exponential curve in this graph for Crude Oil? If that curve holds, one might expect 85-90 buck chuck in a few months.

The graph for Natural Gas (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_NG.G06&v=dmax) looks like it's just come down to a more linear looking graph.

Don't commodities prices look like this during hyperinflationary times? Does anyone have graphs for things like coffee, sugar and other imports to the US?

canamami (1/11/06; 14:37:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140370)
Fascinating speech - US trade objectives mid-20th century
http://www.empireclubfoundation.com/details.asp?SpeechID=1112
This is an excerpt from a speech given by Solon Low, then leader of the national Social Credit Party, to the Empire Club in Toronto in 1947. Low is basically forgotten today. Anyway, the oldtimers will find this excerpt fascinating (Shades of China today?):

"Now there are certain countries which for some years have been carrying on a very aggressive policy of foreign trade and investment. They have insisted upon favorable balances of exports over imports, and upon leaving these balances for investment in the countries to which they have sent their goods. By way of example, Canada has had difficulty in the past in balancing her payments with the U.S.A. whilst on the other hand we have had a surplus account with other nations. This has been mainly because the U.S.A. refuses to accept imports of Canadian goods sufficient to pay for her exports to Canada. This same policy the United States has insisted upon following with Britain, and some other parts of the Commonwealth. During recent years the United States has attempted to force upon all nations who would trade with her, a most-favored-nation-clause in her trade agreements. The strict application of this clause in her trade relations with Japan was unquestionably one of the important factors which goaded that country into preparing for and declaring war on the United States. The "most-favored-nation" clause is enemy number one of the British Commonwealth today.

Just why do I make that assertion? Let me illustrate the answer by quoting from Ludwell Denny's "America Conquers Britain", page 407:

"We were Britain's colony once. She will be our colony before she is done; not in name, but in fact . . . We shall not make Britain's mistake. Too wise to try to govern the world, we shall merely own it. Nothing can stop us. Nothing until our financial empire rots at its heart, as empires have a way of doing. If Britain is foolish enough to fight us, she will go down more quickly, that is all . . . Our weapons are money and machines. The other nations of the world want money and machines. Our materialism, though not power, is not matched by theirs. That is why our conquest is so easy, so inevitable."

There you have the point-of-view of the powerful interests who would destroy Britain and the Commonwealth by the force of trade weapons. How do they propose to do it? They have already gone far in their conquest. Nations of great productive potential, whose goods Britain and Canada and others need to keep up a standard of living, have refused to balance their trade with us by accepting our goods in payment for those they export to us. They have left their favorable balances in our countries for investment in industry and resources, with the result that a very substantial percentage of Canadian and British industry is owned and/or controlled by foreign interests, and consequently our economies among other disabilities, must bear the strain of all the evils of increasing debtor relationship. It is not beyond possibility that what Mr. Denny has forecast, the complete industrial conquest of Britain, will become reality unless world trade policies undergo immediate and radical change. "

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/11/06; 14:14:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 140369)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

January 11 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed higher Wednesday, extending their gains above $550 an ounce as sentiment on the metal continued to be upbeat amid strong physical and investment demand.

COMEX February contracts closed up $4.40 at $550.10, after trading as low as $543.70 and as high as $550.80.

"Expectations for strong demand out of China and other major emerging economies, such as India, coupled with supply constraints and Middle East geopolitical concerns (Iran nuclear concerns and Israeli prime minister issue) has fed medium-term bullish sentiment," said Action Economics.

In the past week, gold has found support from a weaker dollar after China said it is considering diversifying its $800 billion of foreign reserves.

Many analysts predict that China will switch part of its reserves into gold, not just into other currencies.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (01/11/06; 12:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 140368)
The Kings are gone but some Queens remain -- at better-than-bullion pricing!
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/dutch.html

January Buyers' Group

Special discount pricing on Dutch 10 Guilders

Shop online or phone for addtional savings.
Call today, save today!
1-800-869-5115

Flatliner (01/11/06; 12:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 140367)
X+Y
Goldilox, I would contend that you've defined x+y very well. If we look back a few months, where gold broke out with regards to all currencies, that is where I believe that we saw �y� grow larger then zero. For the last few months, we've seen people very excited about owning gold. I believe that there is a direct association between y (percentage) and this �emotion�.

If I'm also understanding Belgian, the �y� portion of this equation is the wealth aspect percentage, that, up until a couple months ago was zero. Also, Belgian believes that because the hedge function of gold is a dead concept, �x� is going to zero. Thus, the ending equation will be 0+y or just �y�. Thus, I would expect that over time we will see �y� outgrow �x� as the leading percentage factor. It would seem to be that this is what is referred to as the revaluation process.

Belgian (01/11/06; 11:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 140366)
@Flatliner
If "you" conclude that there IS a -boat- (as I do), then you are 100% consequent in holding physical gold. If there is NO boat, keep on gambling/speculating with (or without) leverage. I don't see any serious argument for "playing" it the two ways (combination of paper + physical).

Holding the goldmetal in possession since 1971 is ONLY a hedge against the OFFICIAL price inflation !!! That means that $600 and 480 euro are the price inflation neutral targets for gold. These are the general consensus (hum) prices for gold in '06.

All the above has nothing to do with my personal (!) conclusion/opinion, that gold's valuation process is on its way to leave the conventional/official price inflation hedge towards the < gold=wealth reserve > concept, with absolutely no link anymore to the inflation hedge (mal)function. That is *my* reason for debate.

And to all those who still remain convinced that gold's sole function is price inflation hedge...I ask the following question : "WHY" was the goldprice knocked down to $250/Oz !? I already know the bulk of the classic answers and none of them makes any sense at all.

Goldilox (01/11/06; 11:44:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 140365)
Currency depreciation
@ Flatliner,

I think I fit into the group that recognizes:

DOW2006 (@11k) = 20 oz gold

DOW2000 (@11k) = 45 oz gold

That's some pretty nasty currency depreciation over 5 years.

Flatliner (01/11/06; 11:31:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 140364)
@Belgian
Ok. I guess that I *really* have nothing to lose by watching, other then time.

Also, do you mean to write, "since this evolution is happening fast, you better get physical so you don't miss the boat?" Or, am I still not understanding?

I am also curious about the comment about depreciation. Do you mean to say that the folks that have thought of gold as *only* a hedge against inflation are starting to see gold as an investment? In other words, currency depreciation at x% doesn't match gold appreciation of x+y%? I think I fit in that x+y group.

Belgian (01/11/06; 11:11:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 140363)
Flatliner/OvS
It is not Belgian versus MK, but about the "supply-demand" aspect of gold AND the nature of the -evolving- market in which this takes place ! Repeat >>> evolving goldmarket.

And since the goldmarket is evolving "fast", we better forget about thinking and acting long term or running the risk of exclude ourselves from the gold revaluation.

Better NOT to follow the WGC trail and its -conventional- considerations about gold and its nearby future ! That is the "real" debate.

Can we ever know how the major goldmines arrange their books with their specific bankers...or...what facts do we exactly know on CBs' commitments ?
Is the goldmarket still that same place where we speculate/gamble (win/lose) or buy the perception to insure ourselves against fiat depreciation ? NO, things golden are definitely changing and it is against this idea that the most aversion is met. Had a long talk with a Belgian bullion dealer and understand WHY there is such an aversion towards gold-change. Does that mean we have to remain silent about it and ignore it completely ? Are there not enough arguments for suggesting that a Big gold change is happening ? I keep on watching the arguments piling up. Maybe I'm interpreting them all wrongly ?

Goldilox (01/11/06; 11:09:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140362)
Gold holds above $544; sentiment upbeat
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=bigcharts&dist=news&guid=%7B747CD4CC%2DA13A%2D4793%2D89EE%2D61DC9E357D01%7D
snip:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose in late trade Wednesday, extending their gains above $544 an ounce as sentiment on the metal continued to be upbeat.

Gold for February delivery was recently up $3 at $548.70 an ounce, after trading as low as $543.70.

The contract lost almost $5 Tuesday after tapping a quarter-century high overnight, with most analysts viewing the move as a normal correction.

"Expectations for strong demand out of China and other major emerging economies, such as India, coupled with supply constraints and Middle East geopolitical concerns (Iran nuclear concerns and Israeli prime minister issue) has fed medium-term bullish sentiment," said Action Economics.

In the past week, gold has found support from a weaker dollar after China said it is considering diversifying its $800 billion of foreign reserves. Many analysts predict that China will switch part of its reserves into gold, not just into other currencies.

William Adams, metals analyst at BaseMetals.com, said funds are also keeping a floor under gold prices.

"The overall environment for the metals looks supportive, even though it remains vulnerable to a price correction," he said.

At Altavest Worldwide Trading, analyst Thomas Hartmann said the market will likely see bouts of profit taking and liquidiation in the near term.

However, "we're clearly in a bull market so there are not many aggressive sellers at this point," he said.

-Goldilox

Fortunately, our hosts are still selling for those who want to get in on the gold bull. Was that a "wall of worry" message?

OvS (1/11/06; 10:29:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 140361)
MK vs. Belgian?
Belgian, MK's three-pointers
are more of a tactical nature,
yours are longer-ranging stra-
tegic.So you don't necessarily
disagree from that vantage-point.
There is also your disagreement
with silver-traders that intent
to convert their silver-profits
into golden ones. It's a matter
of tactics, and when done right,
lets them catch the coat-tails
of fatter cats up the ladder.
You want to gain more, you must
risk more. If prudence prevails,
that game has to decline percent-
age-wise the higher the goldprice
reaches.
Please keep honoring us with
your mantra--it keeps everyone on
their toes and probably will save
many a knight from foolish excess
gambling.
I bet your 13 yr old didn't learn
anything about gold she did not
know already, but she probably was
relieved to hear it confirmed by
an outside source. OvS

Flatliner (1/11/06; 10:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 140360)
@Belgian
If feels like there is a challenge of a dual, but, I do not see your three swords!

mdgc (1/11/06; 05:34:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 140359)
Chinese currency appreciation
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/fxtrek/senseframescharts.asp
To see charts of the Chinese reminbi (yuan) go the fxstreet.com charts URL below.

Open the file menu, Click change symbol, then click �more� and then type in �USD/CNY�. The daily six-month chart of the number of yuan needed to purchase one US dollar will pop up.

As I write the rate is 8.0672. That is 2.6% lower than the old fixed rate of about 8.28.

The Chinese switched from the pegged rate to a so-called floating rate in late July. The 8.28 pegged rate had been set in 1994.

The quick glance at the daily six-month chart shows that the bands were initially narrow form late July to mid September when they widened. Presumably this was the widening from point one percent to point three percent, a shift that was widely mentioned in the press.

In early November the bands narrowed again, and have stayed tight since then. This has not been widely reported. It would appear that the Peoples Bank of China did not like the wider bands.

The finer scale of the daily three-month chart highlights the daily intra-day ranges. And to my eye, the rate of appreciation of the renminbi appears to have suddenly picked up in 2006. Could this be a PBC policy decision to let the yuan's appreciation accelerate?

Belgian (01/11/06; 00:37:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140358)
@MK
You certainly aren't going to be surprised when I say that I totally don't agree with your 3 most important things that happened the last six months.

I've called the latest statements "political ones"...and you say it are "HOWLS". What's in a name ?
But,...what is " -BEHIND- " all this !? Something deeply fundamental or simply -goldmarket- minor anomalies ? You seem to suggest rather strongly, it is the latter ? In that case, we differ completely again on opinion.

968 (01/11/06; 00:36:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140357)
Fannie, Freddie selling foreclosed homes in Florida at 40%-60% discounted prices
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/13577280.htm
Just for information...

TownCrier (01/11/06; 00:04:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 140356)
TIME Magazine: Gold Fever
http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501060116-1147217,00.html
The soaring price of the yellow stuff isn't stopping Indians from indulging an old obsession. Plus: you can't wear stocks and bonds

[Randy's note: Ha! That's a nice twist on an old theme in the article's subtitle; ususally some idiot likes to point out that you can't eat gold... which ultimately begs the question, what type of condiment are they using to choke down all of those edible(??) stocks and bonds?]

Society Section, Sunday, Jan. 08, 2006 -- ...All through India, Padmanaban says, famous temples are replacing the silver plating on their idols with gold, and smaller shrines are replacing copper deities with silver ones. "People in India have more money now," Padmanaban says, "and the result is that our temples are being covered in gold and silver."

The gilding of the nation's temples is an aspect of one of mankind's great investment obsessions: the Indian love of gold. The country buys at least one-fifth of the global gold supply each year, making it the world's largest consumer of the metal.

Experts believe that 15,000 to 20,000 tons of bars, ingots and jewelry is locked up in India's bank vaults and household safes. Indians are furiously adding to that horde. The World Gold Council estimates gold buying in India was up nearly 33% to 850 tons in 2005. The increase is all the more remarkable given the metal's surging price... it's clear that India's gold appetite has not been markedly diminished even by sharply higher prices.

In many ways, gold [demand] is a relic of weak investor rights and shaky financial systems, where people distrusted banks and the stock market and preferred to store their wealth in tangible assets, chiefly gold and property.

Although India's current economic boom has been criticized for unevenly benefiting the rich, new wealth is percolating down in many parts of the country to newly empowered members of the working class such as Padma Kondababu, a 40-year-old maid in Madras. The first woman in her family to work outside the home, Kondababu makes $85 a month, a good salary by Indian standards. Whatever she can save, she says, she uses to buy gold, sometimes even in $12 installments...

"It's a matter of pride for people like me to buy gold," she says. "Gold used to be a few hundred rupees for a sovereign [a measure of eight grams] in the time of our parents, and yet they couldn't dream of buying it. Now it's six thousand rupees for a sovereign, and still we have the money to buy gold."

It's no coincidence that consumption is highest in the south of India, which has in recent years seen some of the fastest economic growth and the most thorough dispersion of wealth to villages and small cities.

..."So many banks fail and close their doors, and ordinary people get hurt when that happens," says Jhansi Rani, a schoolteacher in Madras, pointing out the case of a close relative who had deposited his pension money in a private bank, only to see it close down suddenly and find that the funds had, apparently, disappeared.

^---(from url)---^

Read this, and strive to understand the essence of TRUE SAVINGS... property in hand (and all rights and privileges attendant with having sole access and control over that which you actually own).

R.

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

P.O. Box 460009
Denver, Colorado 80246-0009

1-800-869-5115 (US)
00-800-8720-8720 (EU)

303-399-6759 (Fax)

admin@usagold.com

Office Hours
6:00am - 5:00pm
(U.S. Mountain Time)
Monday - Friday

American Numismatic Association
Member since 1975

Industry Council for Tangible Assets

USAGOLD Centennial Precious Metals is a BBB Accredited Business. Click for the BBB Business Review of this Gold, Silver & Platinum Dealers in Denver CO

Zero Complaints

Wednesday February 8
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
Site Map - Privacy- Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved