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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/11/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Goldilox (8/11/05; 23:46:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 134861)
US may deny visa for Iran leader's UN address
http://www.jsmineset.com/
snip:

The Bush administration is considering taking the unprecedented step of preventing a visting head of state from addressing the United Nations in New York by denying a visa to Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran's new elected conservative president.

Officials said a decision rested on investigations into whether Mr Ahmadi-Nejad was involved in the 1979 US embassy hostage crisis and the killing of an Iranian-Kurdish dissident leader in Vienna in 1989. Iran denies his involvement in either event.

A top Iranian official confirmed Thursday that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, who took office on Wednesday, planned to address the UN Millennium Summit and its annual General Assembly next month. His US visa application is expected to be submitted on Friday.

-Goldilox

All in the good name of "exhausting all diplomatic solutions", I am sure. Why not just declare war and get it over with. If Iran's representative is not going to be allowed to attend the UN, it is no longer an "international" body, but rather, a guest organization that meets at the "pleasure" of the host administration.

I wonder if the international bankers that froze $15 Billion in Iranian Assets, calling it the "Shah's personal fortune" are gonna be denied access to NYC, as well. They pretty much engineered the "hostage crisis" with that single act of international theft. They could be "cellies" with Bernie Evers' and swap stories of how many $Billions they ripped off.

Knallgold (8/11/05; 23:13:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 134860)
Gold sentiment
"CNBC is interviewing a gold fund manager and just showed a video of a gold wherehouse that was stacked high and deep with bars. WOW!"Goldilox

Saw something similar recently in a financial ad,plus you posted the other day about some analyst speaking "of plenty of supply" (haha),on TV one commentator remarked Gold is not the place to invest,its only a store of wealth (nothing industrial) and therefore won't attract much money.

The contrarian smells blood-the white of their eye??As controllled they want to let it appear...

Arcticfox (8/11/05; 18:21:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 134859)
Today..everything!! was up.
Read this quote at FSO today..

There Always is a Bull Market Somewhere,
but There Never is a Bull Market Everywhere (for long)

Goldendome (8/11/05; 18:03:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 134858)
Today--Everything up...but the dollar!

From the INO market charts at the top of this page, today was a day to buy something--to get rid of dollars. Buy Gold, Silver. Buy Stocks--the Dow, NASDAQ, SP. Buy the bonds, the CRB, anything to get rid of some dollars. Coastal real estate advanced another $10,000 today, on buying... Cars, China stuff--everything a Buy, today.

Tomorrow comes the trade report.

Cometose (8/11/05; 17:51:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 134857)
McHugh's Purchasing Power Indicator on the HUI
Date: Thu Aug 11 2005 19:40
Cometose (McHugh's) ID#139261:
Copyright � 2002 Cometose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
PPI indicator on the Hui generated a buy today which now confirms the Hui 30 day Stochastic signal which generated a buy signal several days if not a week ago .....

more accelerant I would expect........

mikal (8/11/05; 17:38:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 134856)
SA Strike off
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=119230&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=28145
South African Gold Miners Call Off Strike - August 12, 2005
Work set to resume "tonight" in their gold mines.

Boilermaker (8/11/05; 16:46:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 134855)
968 msg#: 134837
Thanks 968 for the subject post. Janet Yellen has put on her best Goldilocks scenario to keep the financial world from panic. She didn't mention that the "reversion to mean" of housing prices might be expected to go below the mean by the same percentage as it was above the mean, ie., a double down. Also, she didn't mention the relative leverage involved with housing versus the stock market. If I have equity of 25% in my house and the price declines 25% I'm back to zero equity. This may get my attention more than a 25% drop in my stock investments where I have no leverage. My real estate inspired spending may be curtailed beyond the 3.5% multiplier that Janet suggests. Another factor that's lacking in her analysis is also related to leverage.
Repo houses on the market will drive prices down just like margined stock will. The housing market in the "hot" markets are probably the most leveraged. These markets are akin to .com stocks. Sell now!

When it comes to wage push inflation here's my view. In the US most of the jobs are low skilled service sector jobs. We have tens/hundreds of thousands of legal and illegal immigrants willing to take them at minimum wage. This puts a cap on wage push inflation. Europe has the same scenario with Turks and Arabs filling the role of low cost immigrants. Manufactured product prices are capped by super cheap Asian labor.

This is not a stable system. Janet Yellen can try to put lipstick on this pig but it's still a pig destined for the slaughter.

mikal (8/11/05; 16:33:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 134854)
Coin designers "inspired by 1907 U.S. gold"
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002433105_coinpassion11m.html?syndication=rss&source=home.xml&items=6
How to coin a state symbol - Erik Lacitis - August 11, 2005
Nimble article on Washington quarter design and selection contains several pronounced tributes- to the U.S. 1907 Saint Gaudens and Miss Liberty.
Also serves up a reminder of the collecting preoccupations of alarming numbers of naive children and adults. Not the casual collector or history buff, but the majority whose
focus is base metal coinage such as modern quarter and nickel redesigns, to the exclusion of everything else. A shame that the promotional energies of the U.S. Mint are not biased towards the most valuable of their annual output or that of prior years.

Goldilox (8/11/05; 16:26:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 134853)
Waterfalls
@ Gandy,

Yes they have returned, I notice through the "egg on my face!"

As $450 is noted as a technical hurdle, tomorrow may hold the key to the momentum.

TownCrier (8/11/05; 16:15:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 134852)
Gold charts
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.html
Every chart looks good.

R.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (8/11/05; 15:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 134851)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thursday Market Excerpts

August 11 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed above $450 an ounce Thursday for the first time in five months, logging a gain of almost $9 -- the biggest this year.

A weaker U.S. dollar and record oil prices sparked the return of precious metals' appeal as a defensive investment.

"We have achieved lift-off," said John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter.

"Those looking for 'one more pullback' will be wrong and have egg on their faces."

He added that "18 months of correction and consolidation is enough. ... This is the real thing."

COMEX December gold contracts traded as high as $452.70.

Prices closed at $450.90, up $8.90, or 2%, to mark their highest close since March 18.

"The [trading] range is fairly impressive," said Thomas Hartmann, analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading. He said he hasn't seen a price movement like this since January, when the daily range was $11.30.

The day's gain is "probably the biggest gain this year and possibly over two years," he said.

The U.S. dollar sagged against its European and Japanese counterparts as a mixed bag of U.S. data was overshadowed by brighter economic prospects elsewhere.

Demand for gold often climbs on the heels of a weaker dollar because the precious metal is used as a hedge against financial losses.

At the same time, oil prices continued to reach records Thursday, with September crude rising above $65 a barrel in New York.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)----

Cometose (8/11/05; 15:46:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 134850)
accelerant ???
something rare this way came today with the breaking of the $6 rule in GOLD to the upside some 9 $ .

This action has many wondering and asking the question , what is going on ..????

There is a fire burning and it has been burning for some time now ....as we who have been following the Metals Markets are aware.......

Today's action indicates accelerant was added to the fire....

and while we may question and guess as to what might be today's catalyst....? it is more interesting to me at this time .....

to wonder if it's accelerant ......and if it is accelerant ....if the nature of it's presence will remain permanent......

SYSTEMIC AND ENDEMIC.........it might very well be
both of these....

which might mean easier cruising in the near term with much less chop

and I will remember to listen to the ADEN SISTERS WHEN they remind me where the BRAKES are ....

Gandalf the White (8/11/05; 15:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 134849)
Look Sir Goldilox ---
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
Yesterday's "RAPIDS" are getting like little WATERFALLS today!
<;-)

Gandalf the White (8/11/05; 15:06:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 134848)
WELL -- Sir Topaz told you it was coming !
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=&a=W&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=BAR&st=
AND today's FUNTASTIC "Breakout" means that we GOLDHEARTS can look forward to hearing "TO THE MOON, Alice" again !
<;-)

mikal (8/11/05; 13:59:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 134847)
Liquidity crisis among fears about flawed investment schemes
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/10/AR2005081002092.html
As Hedge Funds Go Mainstream, Risk is Magnified - Ben White - August 11, 2005

Topaz (8/11/05; 13:43:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 134846)
Physical Culture.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=
Our altGold Chart shows a fairly defined "copy" of action between June and August (albeit Aug going a bit early) and as such, we could expect Gold to get a bit toppy here however...
...with only 94 Comex Deliveries getting done, to total a shade under 7K, I feel this situation will change and PoG should now continue it's ascent.

It's ONE thing to quite simply orchestrate a monetary response to the tendency to revert to the "mean" ..you simply increase short-term rates to make holding Cash unattractive ...however to deflect a concurrent move to Gold, well, that's ANOTHER thing entirely!

mikal (8/11/05; 13:36:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 134845)
Dawson conference PR
http://www.ccnmatthews.com/news/releases/show.jsp?action=showRelease&actionFor=551651
GATA's Dawson Gold Declaration - August 11, 2005
From newsfeed @ http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html -Media picks up declaration which GATA released early in the week.

TownCrier (8/11/05; 12:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 134844)
Old ghosts may haunt dollar after mid-summer slump
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh30454_2005-08-11_14-35-41_n11506824_newsml
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - China's change to its currency regime may have hastened a shift of currency reserves out of the dollar, a trend that could revive the greenback's three-year decline after a six-month respite.

"The idea that we will get further diversification in these foreign reserves is pretty real," said Bob Kowit, portfolio manager of $3.5 billion in international fixed-income investments...

Since China abandoned its yuan peg to the dollar on July 21, the prospect of the world's central banks continuing to diversify some of their approximately $2.44 trillion in dollar-denominated reserves into other currencies has resurfaced as a focus of concern in currency markets.

China previously had held the yuan peg in place by selling yuan, buying dollars and investing them in U.S. Treasuries.

But China and other central banks may no longer need to buy so many U.S. Treasury bonds, reducing the $2 billion a day in capital inflows needed to finance the massive U.S. current account deficit.

It may be no coincidence that the U.S. dollar's recovery in first half of 2005 came to an end in late July after the change to the Chinese exchange rate regime.

...Meanwhile, huge U.S. structural imbalances still loom over the dollar's long-term prospects and have become a recipe for dollar weakness when concerns over U.S. deficits mix with worries over central bank diversification.

^----(from url)-----^

To protect yourself from an erosion of purchasing power, choose gold -- for all the reasons we've explained over the past several years.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/11/05; 11:59:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 134843)
Access to a world of gold awaits your phonecall
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Why should YOU buy gold?

Because no one else will do it for you.

USAGOLD-Centennial can help.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

Goldilox (8/11/05; 11:23:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 134842)
HUI Watch
After about 4% yesterday, the HUI is up another 4% today, currently at 217.29

Clink! (8/11/05; 11:08:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 134841)
Double spike
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html
The action could just be black box trading. Gold has been in a l-o-n-g pennant formation - look at a 1-year chart to see it - with a breakout point of around $440. That was broken this morning, and, with the relatively low open interest at the moment - there was plenty of room for the specs to pile on.
Oil had a potential peak point of around $65, and it would appear that it has just pushed on through that. Ackerman mentions it in his daily article today, with a target of $70.
We shall see what the cabal can do to stifle the excitement.

C!

The Hoople (8/11/05; 10:58:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 134840)
Survivor
I wouldn't know where to begin with what's causing today's metal volatility. Fannie postponing earning statements for a YEAR and assigning an army of beancounters to investigate? This is huge IMO, what you bet they already know it's a disaster and bought time to delay the inevitable. Miner strike? Also known as nothing coming out of "deep storage" in Africa for a while. Iran nuke talk? No CB physical gold to dump for a few months now they've burned through the WA2 allotment? China re-allocating their portfolio to shed those pesky FRN's? So many gold friendly reasons, not enough suppression ammo. Maybe it's coming down to cover your --- time at the BB's and assorted gold short brain dead funds. With what I know about the economy there should be an extra zero on today's gold rally.

Rimh (8/11/05; 10:49:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 134839)
What's goin' on?
Like Survivor, I, too, am wondering what is driving the gold price/oil price today? Is the coiled spring that is physical demand finally putting "real" pressure on the paper-pricing market or was it some super-high-test Roo meat that Gandalf fed spot and spike this AM, or what....?

The fact that the $6.00 rule has been breached in such significant way is shocking... I haven't seen a move to the upside this good since at least '03....

Survivor (8/11/05; 10:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134838)
Today's Action

Anyone know why the currency and metal markets are so volatile today?

I know a truck of explosives went off in Utah. Is the rumor mill seeing this as a terrorist act? Apparently it was just bad driving.

- Survivor

968 (8/11/05; 10:25:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 134837)
Janet L Yellen: Views on the economy and implications for monetary policy
http://www.bis.org/review/r050810g.pdf
Speech by Ms Janet L Yellen, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, at the Portland Community Leaders� Luncheon, Portland, Oregon, 29 July 2005.

SNIPS :
"Of course, oil prices do pose an inflation risk. The price of oil has just about doubled over the past two years, from the low $30 range to around $60 per barrel recently. Higher oil prices are reflected in higher "headline" inflation. And they have been passed through to some extent to core inflation as well, but, unless they rise further, the effect on core inflation should begin to dissipate next year. Another risk relates to labor compensation, which is the single largest component of business costs. Recently, one measure of compensation per hour jumped abruptly. Here, too, though, I am not terribly worried because a good part of the jump is probably accounted for by one-time events, such as bonus payments and the exercising of stock options."

"Two of the major factors contributing to the sizable imbalance between our imports and our exports are the strength of the U.S. economy relative to our major trading partners and the relative strength of the dollar. In 2004, the increase in the trade deficit�by itself�subtracted almost one percentage point from real GDP growth, representing a significant drag on overall activity."

"One common way of thinking about housing's fundamental value is to consider the ratio of housing prices to rents. The price-to-rent ratio is equivalent to the price-to-dividend ratio for stocks. In the case of housing, rents reflect the flow of benefits obtained from housing assets�either the monetary return from rental property, or the value of living in owner-occupied housing. Historically, the ratio for the nation as a whole has had many ups and downs, but over time it has tended to return to its long-run average. Thus, when the price-to-rent ratio is high, housing prices tend to grow more slowly or fall for a time, and when the ratio is low, prices tend to rise more rapidly. I want to emphasize, though, that this is a loose relationship that can be counted on only for rough guidance rather than a precise reading. Currently, the ratio for the country is higher than at any time since data became available in 1970�about 25 percent above its long-run average. Of course, the results vary widely from place to place. For Los Angeles and San Francisco, the price-to-rent ratio is about 40 percent higher than the normal level, while for Cleveland the ratio is very near its historical average. Closer to home, the figure for Seattle is just over 35. For Portland, it turns out that the price-to-rent ratio is a bit anomalous. Unlike the ratio for the nation and many of the cities I've mentioned, Portland's ratio has been trending up, and this pattern has been going on since the late 1980s. This means that there's not a stable long-run average ratio to use as a comparison for today's ratio, so the analysis we did for the other cities wouldn't be that meaningful for Portland. What we do know is that the pace of home price appreciation in Portland has been close to the national pace over the past few years, lagging behind somewhat in 2003 as the state struggled to recover from the 2001 recession, but mostly catching up in 2004 and early 2005 as economic growth picked up noticeably in the state. As of early this year, home prices in the Portland area were up 12 percent over a year earlier, only a bit below the national pace of 12� percent. More recently, I've heard reports that upscale homes in the Portland area are increasingly being sold at above-asking price�a phenomenon we're all too familiar with in the Bay Area! So it's clear that Portland's housing market has been hot, but I'm sure that's no surprise to you."

"Given this uncertainty, my focus as a monetary policymaker is on trying to understand what kind of risks a drop in house prices would pose for the economy. One of the classic ways to do this is to ask "What if�?"�in other words, to pose a purely hypothetical question. In this case, the "what if" question might be, "What's the likely effect if national house prices did fall by 25 percent, enough to bring the price-to-rent ratio back to its historical average?" Before going any further, I want to emphasize that I'm not making any predictions about house price movements, but instead, simply discussing how a prudent monetary policymaker could assess the risk. First, there would be an effect on consumers� wealth. With housing wealth nearing $18 trillion today, such a drop in house prices would extinguish about $4� trillion of household wealth�equal to about 38 percent of GDP. Standard estimates suggest that for each dollar of wealth lost, households tend to cut back on spending by around 3� cents. This amounts to a decrease in consumer spending of about 1� percent of GDP. To get some perspective on how big the effect would be, it's worth comparing it with the stock market decline that began in early 2000. In that episode, the extinction of wealth was much greater�stock market wealth fell by $8� trillion from March 2000 to the end of 2002. This suggests that if house prices were to drop by 25 percent, the impact on the economy might be about half what it was when the stock market turned down a few years ago."

"Now let's complicate things. Suppose house prices started falling because bond and mortgage interest rates started rising as the conundrum was resolved, say, because the risk premium in bonds rose due to concerns about federal budget deficits or other factors. Then we'd have the cutback in spending because of the wealth effect, plus there'd likely be further spending cutbacks, as borrowing costs for households rose. Furthermore, a rise in long-term rates would have effects beyond just households�it also would dampen business investment in capital goods through a higher cost of capital. How manageable would this scenario be? Like the wealth effect, these added interest-rate effects operate with a lag, so, again, there probably would be time for monetary policy to respond by lowering short-term interest rates. This obviously would not be a "slam dunk," but in many circumstances it would seem manageable."

"As I've discussed, if a sizable reversal in house prices were to occur, it probably would affect the economy mainly through the lagged effects of declines in wealth and increases in interest rates, rather than through widespread financial disruptions. This would give monetary policy time to react to any resulting economic weakness by lowering interest rates. In addition, the magnitude of the potential house price overvaluation may be only around half that of the earlier stock market overvaluation."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In God and the Fed we thrust !

Compare this speech to Otmar Issing's interview (http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2005/html/sp050809.en.html) and conclude yourself...

Goldilox (8/11/05; 08:55:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 134836)
CNBC picture
CNBC is interviewing a gold fund manager and just showed a video of a gold wherehouse that was stacked high and deep with bars. WOW!

Goldilox (8/11/05; 08:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 134835)
Repo Sales
Your repo story reminds me of Martin Luther King's (less) famous, but more flamboyant Atlanta speech. I found it at the old "Wizard's of Money" site which has since been bought and modified by an educational site vendor.

In it, MLK described the fleecing of inner-city HUD-financed RE owners by similar practices. The "auctions" were held on the courthouse steps with the main bidders being the mortgage company's own attorneys. No wonder the FBI "shadowed" his every move.

The major scheme was to get HUD to sell them back the property at a lesser cost, using HUD funds to "insure" their losses.

Catherine Austin Fitts of "Solari Network" also describes some of these practices in the expose of HUD fraud that got her fired as an independent HUD auditor.

Boilermaker (8/11/05; 06:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134834)
Real Estate and Yachts
Hoosier Goldbug;
Thanks much for illuminating the MO of the banks in repo sales. That's exactly what was happening at the Sheriff's sale that I attended. Out of 60 properties listed, 23 sales were cancelled per plaintiff's attorney, 3 were purchased by third parties and 34 went to the plaintiff (mortgage holder). This happens every Friday at 10:00 AM in the courthouse rotunda and the numbers are very consistent.

Goldendome:
No problem with the ribbing. Reminds me of the old story about a visitor to New York who admired the yachts of the bankers and brokers in New York Harbor. Naively, he asked "where are the customers� yachts?". Of course, there were no customer yachts. There's also a book by that title.
Perhaps someday I'll go to a sheriff's sale of repo'ed broker's yachts and finally get to put my silver to use. ;)

Boilermaker (8/11/05; 05:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 134833)
Doing the Math Correctly
In Goldilox' post #134830 Chris Fox makes the calculation;

"If 1.69 is 30 percent above the mean, then a reversion past the mean, with a final destination of 30 percent below the mean would allow me to expect that the price-to-rent ratio should drop by 60 percent which should be a .68 price-to-rent ratio."

Chris Fox has made the common error of adding/subtracting percentages. Here's the right way. If 1.69 is 30% above the mean then the mean is 1.69/1.30= 1.30. If the ratio drops 30% below the mean then it will be 1.30 x (1.00-.30)= .91. This doesn't change his point about the reversion to mean in the housing market but it does make it less dramatic.

Ned (8/11/05; 04:41:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 134832)
Do or die me thinks !
POG approaching triple top of $440, will be interesting if and when we cross over or fall off a cliff.

Me thinks (me hopes!) we bust out by end of August, and break the $455 set in Dec. 04 within 90 days.

Have a golden day.

Topaz (8/11/05; 02:17:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 134831)
< ALERT > Half Australia's active Volcanoes are Erupting!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/australian-volcanic-island-erupts/2005/08/10/1123353361783.html
Got to be good for Z-Gold. We've only got two of 'em though.
Reversion-to-the-mean G'lox was interesting.
I'd think things would look decidedly more grim should IR's head to (say) 15%.

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