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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/11/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 23:54:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89377)
Sundeck #89369 -- JPM

Sundeck,

I found your post interesting. I admit, I have been puzzling over JPM's supposed endorsement of gold stocks (or "initiate coverage" � what does that mean, just that they're having one of their analysts(?) cover it?). However, I am far too inexperienced to speculate on the underlying motives or their intentions, not to mention the ins and outs of your hypotheses.

I have heard more than once that gold will go up when TPTB want it to (i.e., when it is finally to their benefit) and I would like to think that may be the case here.

However, I also remember that it seemed like every time Goldman Sachs was quoted in the media as speaking positively about gold stocks, within 2 days, the stocks went down.

So, I came to the conclusion that if any of them say anything favorable about precious metals, hence drawing the public's attention to PMs as a viable investment, said PMs manage to take a dive while the public is ardently watching. That reaffirms the public's misconception of PMs as a volatile investment, not to be trusted.

Considering the "rumors" about JPM's derivative exposure, I'm not surprised that they leaked some story relating to gold. I'll be curious to see down the road what happens to the stocks JPM is supposedly initiating coverage on.

But, times may have changed and I am very intrigued about the possibilities inherent in the latest JPM spin. Oh, would that it be that gold would be allowed to rise to its rightful estate!

OK, those of you who are adept in intrigue...any speculation? Do they think they have the ability for one more mega short (after "selling gold" to the public)? That seems too simplistic, even to naive me! (I should probably just delete this post rather than so blatantly show my stupidity.) To me, it would take a financial genius to comprehend the possibilities and ramifications of derivatives!!

Well, whatever we may think now, time will show us what is so.

I just know that "I got mine" (physical PMs) and am just watching all of this like a TV show that somehow managed to retain some semblance of intelligence. Mis-guided and mis-used, unfortunately.

Liberty Head (11/11/02; 23:37:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89376)
Sundeck- Hedge on Hedge
While reading your question about JPM buying gold stocks, it reminded me of the double reverse play in football. There is lots of latteral running, before any forward motion takes place. There are more chances for a backfield fumble and big loss as well. If I was the quarterback for JPM at this point in time,I would send every reciever long.
It's "Hail Mary" time for JPM.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 23:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89375)
Energy Prices � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

Crude oil prices for December delivery rose 2.8% to $25.94 a barrel. While oil prices rose today, natural gas prices fell. The oil markets are worried about war, as well they should be. However, the real crisis in energy could come this winter from natural gas. The story out today was deceptive. U.S. stock piles are down from 3.254 trillion cubic feet last winter to today's 3.145 trillion cubic feet. Furthermore, weather patterns point to a colder winter this year. New York's temperatures are already down in the 50's. The National Weather Agency is already predicting abnormal weather patterns this winter due to El Nino. As of last week US drilling activity has dropped to the lowest level in 26 weeks with only 826 rotary rigs working, down 28 rigs in the latest week, and down from 1,010 the same period a year ago.

Current consumption drawdowns show this winter the US natural gas markets depending on weather could be 3-10 Bcf/day short of demand. A colder winter temperature as we are now experiencing could drive that figure even higher. When you have a supply driven deficit versus a demand driven deficit, they are much longer lasting and harder to correct. The only thing that can balance the deficit and bring it back into balance is sustained higher prices. Even though natural gas prices and oil prices are up this year, E&P companies have been reluctant to increase drilling activity for natural gas because of the uncertainty regarding price. Given the current nature of supply and demand it looks like this winter we are likely to see much higher gas prices that take us well into spring and summer. And unlike the last natural gas crisis we don't have cheaper oil prices to convert to. Oil prices are high and could go even higher if we go to war or terrorist attacks disrupt supply. Current al Qaeda plans show the terrorist group is shifting its strategy towards energy assets by going after tankers, refineries, and oil based facilities. Some experts are predicting that natural gas prices could rise over $5.50 and head even higher if we experience severe weather.

The US has finally worked off the massive gas supply bubble that was created with regulated prices during the 70's and 80's. The physics of natural gas show that it tends to decline much faster than oil. Geologists mention the fact that over the last year or so the US has finally entered into the decline stage of its natural gas reserves. Oil production in the US went into decline back in 1971. Policymakers as well as users may find it hard to fathom that oil and gas are self-depleting assets. The US natural gas decline rate is currently about 25%. Since we aren't adding enough natural gas reserves this means only one thing: production must fall and prices will rise as a consequence. That is why it is looking like we are heading into another natural gas crisis that will be triggered by a rapidly falling US gas supply with harsher weather.

Black Blade: As I have been saying. We are headed into a new energy crisis mostly due to reduced replacement of reserves. Drilling programs have fallen off sharply and the latest data show that we are headed into decline mode. The NatGas producers are holding back because they don't want to get burned again. The only problem is that this time is likely to be a long term decline into a perpetual shortfall.

The CoinGuy (11/11/02; 23:06:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89374)
Sundeck
I'm sorry, but I don't see any scenario available other than FOA's that is remotely possible. I would imagine they could be cashed out of their contracts for a net gain in the (failing)paper market. I will have to defer you to Ari the speculator(smile) on this one. As far as their derivative position, it is beyond...well it is insane(and growing). I'd like to know what encompasses their bottom line on off balance sheet debt. I bet this is scary as well.

As far as the shares go, the float is ENTIRELY to small. Large fills on mid-tiers are next to impossible. I usually work an individual issue both ways(smile again) at it's level of support, and I'm having trouble, especially on Canadian issues. I'd imagine the likes of JPM sticking it's head into this tent with more than a toe or two would stick out like a sore thumb. Contrary to popular belief, there really aren't enough shares to go around in the non-hedgers.

Might pay to spend some time on the trail...plenty of excellent information there. All provided FREE by our most gracious host.

Best of Luck,

The CoinGuy

Draco (11/11/02; 23:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89373)
Sundeck
It is an "interesting" question is it not? I enjoyed following the math in your line of reasoning. You must have a math background.

The main problem that I see in that senerio is mining share supply. I have read in the past on this forum, where the market cap of all of the combined shares of all of the mining companies is equal to the market cap of Microsoft.
Thats it -- until the shares begin to split 5 or 10 to one. It would then be, as you point out, too late to get in on the full rise in price. You also point out very well the difficulty in going into this thin market on that scale without arousing alot of attention. Now imagine several JPM's trying to do the same thing. At some point panic would ensue and all stelth would go out the window. Panic buying would be unleashed and its 'to the moon" time.

I think, IMHO that the shorts will have to be allowed to settle in fiat. That may indeed cause a rise in POG but imagine the price explosion if they were forced to go to the open market for physical. And besides, there is just not enough gold available.

So I think that "insufficiant quantity of mining shares" would fit for #3 on your problems with this stratagy.

Anyone care to venture a 4th problem?

Black Blade (11/11/02; 22:59:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 89372)
Consumers' wallets are wearing out
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/PEstory/TGAM/20021111/RBRIA/Business/business/businessColumnistsHeadline_temp/3/3/5/

Snippit:

The fact is that there are still some dark clouds on the horizon, not the least of which is that the economy's most important player appears to be running out of steam. That would be the redoubtable U.S. consumer, whose courageous spending through thick and thin and well beyond his or her means rescued the economy from the jaws of recession. The hope of Mr. Greenspan was that the free-spending consumer could hang on long enough for the stock markets to regain their footing and for businesses to resume spending in a big way. But that no longer appears likely. As corporations continue to cut costs and pour any free capital into debt reduction, signs of consumer fatigue are cropping up everywhere. This has led to gloomy forecasts for autos and housing, the key economic drivers of the past year, and for the crucial Christmas selling season. Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Barry fears this could shape up to be the worst holiday period for major U.S. retailers in more than a decade, for a variety of reasons. These include plunging consumer confidence, slowing growth in real wages and rising joblessness, as corporations continue to hack away at their payrolls.

Wage growth "has begun a somewhat precipitous decline over the past seven months," Mr. Barry told clients recently. As the increase in income slows, "its ability to prop up consumer spending will erode." He might also have added soaring debt levels to his list. The Fed reported last week that U.S. consumer borrowing shot up nearly $10-billion (U.S.) in September, compared with a rise of $5.6-billion in August. That brought the total to $1.73-trillion. This doesn't include mortgage debt, which has climbed almost 70 per cent in the past seven years to nearly $5.7-trillion. "We think there's legitimate cause for concern about whether consumers have the wherewithal to carry the load for the economy through these uncertain times," John Hawke, the U.S. comptroller of the currency, told a bankers' gathering last week in San Francisco. "It may be . . . that the consumer has already given about all that the consumer has to give. Indeed, debt load statistics suggest that consumers may have given too much, and that retail customers could be especially vulnerable to an unexpected economic jolt."

Black Blade: As I said, the US consumer is tapped out.

Blackjack (11/11/02; 22:52:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89371)
Gold, China & the US $
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund111202.html
I was intrigued to learn last week that China may move to back its currency with gold. Such a move would certainly help to explain the opening of the gold exchange in China. The Chinese are very astute business people and should never be underestimated.

China is, to my mind, the evolving economic powerhouse of the 21st century. In China, the emphasis is on production, not consumption. What a contrast with the United States, which is openly the opposite. The United States unashamedly encourages its own citizens to believe that "spending every last penny" is the patriotic thing to do, to keep the economy going and has effectively exported its own manufacturing capability, thus making it a hostage to external forces.

It has also, in recent years, contrived to create a global currency and a system designed to funnel the capital and savings of the rest of the planet directly into its coffers in order to fuel its unending orgy of consumption and enormous consequent balance of payments deficits. They have even succeeded in creating the erroneous belief, in the rest of the world, that their economic welfare is somehow dependant on the continuing well-being of the American consumer.

What does the rest of the world get in return? Mountainous piles of paper - dollars printed like confetti, bond, junks bonds, shares, share issues - all effectively a highly degradable heap of IOU's. Can you imagine what will happen when the rest of the world finally wakes up and realizes it's been a victim of the biggest scam in the history of the planet?!

Can you imagine what will happen to the US dollar if at the same time China backs its currency with gold?! The consequences will be awesome.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 22:51:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 89370)
A State of Disequilibrium - Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20021111-mon.html#anchor0

Snippit:

The lopsided nature of a US-centric global economy is the most outwardly visible sign. In large part, that reflects America's role as the unquestioned engine of global growth since the mid-1990s. Over the 1995 to 2002 interval, US economic growth is estimated to have accounted for fully 64% of the cumulative increase in world GDP (at market exchange rates) � double America's share in the global economy. At work was an extraordinary burst of US domestic demand, with gains averaging 5% per annum in the latter half of the 1990s. By contrast, demand growth in the rest of the world was anemic, averaging just 2% over this same interval. In essence, the rest of the world produced to satisfy the seemingly insatiable demands of US consumers and businesses.

Black Blade: This obviously is coming to an end. I find it amusing that the Japanese are trying hard as hey may to weaken the yen and strengthen the U.S. dollar to keep their export driven economy alive and kicking. It will be all for naught as their attempt to stop the fall of the US dollar is futile. Should get rather "interesting". Meanwhile the US consumer is deep in debt with little in savings and is nearly tapped out. In a word � "grim".

Sundeck (11/11/02; 22:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 89369)
Sirs Draco, Coinguy et al. - JPM and Gold Stocks
Can someone who is short physical gold, JPM for example, hedge their gold short position by owning gold stocks? It may be possible under certain conditions.

The earnings of gold producers at present, due to the low POG, are strongly leveraged to the gold price. Losses from short covering may be more than offset by gains in the share price of gold producers.

Consider the following reasoning:

1. Suppose it costs a typical producer $250 per ounce to produce gold. At $320 per ounce, the producer earns $70 per ounce.

2. If the gold price doubles, say, to $640 per ounce then, other things being equal, the producer earns $390 per ounce; a rise in earnings of 5.7 times.

3. If the producer's shares maintain a constant P:E during the change in POG then the producer's share price will have increased 5.7 times.

4. Suppose someone short gold at, say, $280 per ounce has to cover at $640 per ounce (as a worst case). Their loss is $360 per ounce, or about 1.3 times their initial capital outlay.

5. However, if they hold shares in a typical producer, their gain is 5.7 times their initial capital outlay.

6. Thus, by owning shares to the value of their initial short position, the hedger can easily cover their physical gold exposure, and make a profit, by virtue of leverage in the share price.

Problems with this strategy?

1. Normally gold borrowed by the speculator would have to be repaid in gold. If the short position is very large, there may not be sufficient gold available to cover at any price. This could be embarrasing. However, if the initial contract allowed for repayment in fiat, or in some other form, then the "insufficient physical" problem might be averted. Such a scenario would be expected to push the POG very high, followed by the gold stocks.

2. The hedger would probably have to have bought the shares progressively over a benign period of low gold price. Attempting to enter the market for shares as the POG is rising would probably send share prices sky high and defeat the purpose of the hedger.

3. Others???

I would appreciate comments from the oaken table...

Humbly yours,

Sundeck

Blackjack (11/11/02; 22:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 89368)
Putin: "World in Mortal Danger"
http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/11/12/wput12.xml
Islamic radicals are pursuing the systematic annihilation of non-Muslims, President Vladimir Putin claimed yesterday.

The Russian leader said at a European Union summit in Brussels that western civilisation faced a mortal threat from Muslim terrorists, and claimed that they had plans to create a "worldwide caliphate".

Gold N Rule (11/11/02; 21:57:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89367)
Well Put Old Yeller (#89342)
I too am tired of being led by liars and thieves into the dens of destruction. The smoke will settle eventually and the naked truth will have to be met!

Chris Powell (11/11/02; 21:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 89366)
A report on GATA's participation in the New Orleans Investment Conference
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1289
The GATA delegation did more than eat,
drink, and be merry. It ate a real lot!

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Aristotle (11/11/02; 21:52:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89365)
A correction for R Powell, those were NOT my opening words to Mr. Bill
These were:

"Mr. Bill, your comments are fair enough taken in isolation"

The operative words there are "taken in **isolation**."

In the conveyance of information, context is everything (followed closely by presentation to achieve emphasis where needed.) Let's not lose sight of the bigger picture, shall we?

Hence, the relevance of the quip you've highlighted sandwiched between the vital introductory remark and the resolution:

"...so the lessons learned from mankind in antiquity and from two modern World Wars are not so easily dismissed as you would have them be."

Just look at Elwood's 89346 post if you need another example where an out-of-context soundbite not only fails to convey the significance of the overall commentary but is also used as "hard EVIDENCE, Your Honor!" to foster unwarranted tension or pre-trial dismissal by the would-be jurors.

When the counterpoint is too weak or ill-conceived to stand on its own, a well-chosen hanging soundbite can be used as a cheap and easy source of leverage and distraction. Put to better uses they can also serve as a springboard to other related or tangential thoughts.

What is your goal here, only you can say. My goal if it isn't already obvious is to fraternize with like-minded souls who've chosen to give deeper-than-typical thought to the monetary ways of the world. Despite the protests of Mr. Bill, I don't think that's elitism any more than among guys who've given "deeper-than-typical" interest to sports who gather 'round for Monday Night Football.

By God if you don't know what a fumble is, they're gonna tell ya, and if you try to change the channel to ballet or some other footie thing they're gonna thump ya; nothin' personal.

Context and presentation. Gotta use the whole tool box or else I might as well be blowing bubbles.

Gold. It'll clear that mess right up. --- Ari

Pizz (11/11/02; 21:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89364)
silvercollector
Your manager is right on.

Pizz

RobotGuy (11/11/02; 21:43:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89363)
Native North Americans

Centuries ago in North America there existed a number of tribes of Native people. We Europeans often referred to them as savages as we had little understanding of their lifestyles and methods. It was often necessary for tribes to battle other tribes for areas of the continent that offered the greatest opportunities for survival. Sounds kind of crazy doesn't it? I mean with agriculture and trade, we could all theoretically get along without the requirement of constant battles.

Has anything really changed? Let's pretend we're the Apache's, and they're the Iroqois, and that the oil is our survival.

they've got it, we want it, and this is how we're going to settle this thing.

Perhaps if we weren't so concerned with the oil, we might be able to forget about the lonely tyrant.

Eventually planet earth will arrive at a time where death, devastation and brutality would be unheard of. We would mentally evolve into a race where we will understand that pain is not welcome. There is a very simple saying from a very intelligent man, who knew of the extreme value of this concept. The saying was something like this "Do unto your brothers as you would have them do unto you". Amazing isn't it, such a simple concept, yet we still fail to grasp it. It's so unfortunate that we all won't live to see that day.

The other part of me says 'hell yeah', go through with it, I hope it's a massive bloodbath, and the terror and pain gets so deeply instilled into every survivor, that it will be like being punished for doing something wrong.

Forget the hydrocarbons, they will eventually run out one day anyway, and then what will the world do? Why don't we advance ourselves to the next level of evolution prematurely and focus whole heartedly on the ideas of renewable energy? Oh, now you're calling me a hippie! I'll tell you why we don't focus whole heartedly on coverting ourselves now, because it takes work and sacrafice, and we're lazy and selfish.

I'm sorry, I still don't think it's a good idea.

RobotGuy.

Blackjack (11/11/02; 21:37:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89362)
Iraq Parliament rejects UN resolution
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A40838-2002Nov11?language=printer
CAIRO, Nov. 11 -- Despite the threat of war, Iraqi parliament members urged President Saddam Hussein tonight to reject a new U.N. resolution requiring the country to disarm and submit to intrusive weapons inspections, condemning the document in blistering declarations as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

Meeting in an emergency session at Hussein's behest, parliament members spent more than two hours criticizing the resolution, which the Security Council approved unanimously on Friday. The parliament speaker, Saadoun Hammadi, labeled it "provocative, deceitful and a preamble for war." Others called it "unfair" and a "violation of human rights."

Several members, including the head of an influential foreign affairs committee, said the parliament should refuse to endorse the resolution and noted the final decision on whether to accept it rests with Hussein and the supreme ruling body that he presides over, the Revolutionary Command Council.

It is unusual, however, for Hussein to overrule the parliament. Its members are all his ardent supporters and its decisions are almost always in lock step with his views. Hussein often refers issues to parliament so he and top officials can say their decisions are based on the will of the Iraqi people.

The parliament is expected to continue discussing the resolution Tuesday. Hammadi did not say whether the body would hold a formal vote.

Iraq has until Friday to formally accept the terms of the resolution. If it does, Hussein's government then must declare within 30 days all Iraqi programs to develop weapons of mass destruction and provide inspectors unfettered access to any place in the country, including presidential palaces and other sensitive sites.

If Hussein does not accept the resolution by Friday, the Bush administration could ask the Security Council to authorize the use of force, or the United States could opt to take unilateral action.

The tenor of the comments during the session in Baghdad, broadcast live on an Iraqi satellite television channel, took some political observers in the Arab world by surprise. Arab foreign ministers and diplomats had expressed confidence on Sunday night that Hussein would accept the resolution as the best way to avert a military confrontation with the United States.

The ministers and diplomats, gathered for an Arab League meeting in Cairo, said they had received assurances from Iraq's foreign minister, Naji Sabri, and other Iraqi officials that the resolution would be endorsed by Hussein's government. Before the Iraqi parliament session began, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa said he thought Iraq would "cooperate positively" with the new resolution.

"We were expecting some criticism, but nothing like this," said one Arab diplomat involved in discussions with Sabri over the weekend. "It's difficult to say what Saddam's strategy is."

Another official who participated in the Arab League meeting said the tone of the parliament session reflected "classic Saddam strategy."

"He's unpredictable," the official said. "You never know what he's going to do until the very last minute, when he actually makes the decision."

Draco (11/11/02; 21:29:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89361)
silvercollector
Yes it is "interesting" to see the JPM spin. What I found intreging was the fact that they are covering gold shares
and even forcasting that POG will rise any at all. It is a real shift in position for them as I'm sure they would rather see $250/oz.
Infantile logic indeed if this is their new marketing ploy. Perhaps that is giving them too much credit. I'm thinking more of a cornered rabid ally-cat. They will be willing to do whatever it takes.

Draco

Blackjack (11/11/02; 21:27:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 89360)
"We're not going to wait until February to see whether Iraq is co-operating or not.''
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=351331
President Bush issued a tough new warning to Saddam Hussein yesterday as administration officials said that a war could begin before the end of the year.

In a series of Veterans' Day memorial services, Mr Bush said he was ready to take his country to war. Unless President Saddam Hussein fully disarmed, "America will lead a coalition to fully disarm him.

"I have no greater responsibility than protecting the American people. Should military action become necessary for our own security, I will commit the full force and might of the United States' military, and we will prevail," he said.

Colin Powell, the American Secretary of State, told CNN: "We're not going to wait until February to see whether Iraq is co-operating or not.''

The Iraqi leader began the process of deciding a formal response to the United Nations Security Council resolution, which calls on his government to provide free and unfettered access to weapons inspectors or else face "serious consequences". Iraq has until Friday to respond. If President Saddam rejects the resolution, Mr Bush is determined to act alone if necessary to punish him with massive military strikes.

silvercollector (11/11/02; 21:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89359)
Message from my manager today....
"This is really easy to figure out if one looks a little past ones nose.

Over the next 10-15 years the baby-boomers acutely hungry to fatten up their portfolio's before hibernation will slowly but steadily begin to acquire a sense of wealth perservation. There will be no stock chasing in 10 years; in fact, it may have already begun.

The other issue is resources. America has been on a 25 year tear. It is not debatable that we import more oil today than in the past. We will import more each day looking forward. It will be an uphill battle to maintain parity with any other currency. We have crossed over the peak of everlasting prosperity. We look forward to paying more. America's profit margins will forever diminish. That's not accounting, that's math.

The candle that burns twice as bright, burns half as long."

The CoinGuy (11/11/02; 21:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89358)
Concerning JP Morgan and Gold Stocks
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873193606&p=1012571727108
Comment: I think the real question should be, will they have enough of a capital base left to buy gold and/or gold stocks(being facetious of course).

Snippit:

JP Morgan Chase and Bank One are to be hit with a $1bn lawsuit alleging they may have breached their fiduciary duties at National Century Financial Enterprises, a troubled healthcare receivables buyer.

Snippit:

Med Diversified, one of the healthcare providers from which National Century buys receivables, said on Monday that JP Morgan and Bank One, which it said act as trustees to bondholders, may have known of the misuse of funds. It plans to file a lawsuit on Tuesday against JP Morgan, Bank One, the independent directors of the subsidiaries concerned and auditor Deloitte & Touche

BTW, Doug Noland nailed this one to the wall, ahead of time.

Been having trouble getting fills on the above mentioned,

The CoinGuy

Max Rabbitz (11/11/02; 21:02:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 89357)
JPM and Gold Stocks
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/20021108/i.html?mdg
Hmmmm. Lots of initial ratings on gold miners from JPM today. Two neutrals, one underweight, and one overweight. I wonder if "Analyst" McConvey from Goldman Sachs has found a new home yet?

silvercollector (11/11/02; 21:00:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89356)
I particularly like this line.........
".....short term dollar weakness is
raising gold and the gold stocks."

No JPM, it's more like "...long term dollar death will moonshot gold and the gold stocks."

silvercollector (11/11/02; 20:56:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89355)
Draco
You are biting my friend. JPM is indeed hoping for 335 gold by Q103. That's a 5% increase holy cow.

What they are not hoping for is a 30% increase to $400.

See the infantile logic of their whacked marketing scam?

silvercollector

Draco (11/11/02; 19:58:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89354)
JPM moving into gold stocks?

From Daniel Denning at
Strategic Investment
Monday, November 11, 2002
Paris, France

***The Fed Takes, The Dollar Gives
***Hard Asset Funds Clean Up
***Trouble at OHP
***More Warfare State News

Copyright 2002 Agora Publishing

The Strategic Investment Weekly Update You may not forward,
reprint or post any of the material you read here as it
contains information exclusively provided for the benefit
of subscribers to Strategic Investment. However, brief
passages and quotes may be used within the body of other
articles and reviews, with proper attribution.

***Hard Asset Funds Clean Up

J.P. Morgan got on the gold bandwagon last week. It's
widely speculated in the financial community that Morgan is
a major seller of gold in the derivatives market. But who
knows...maybe Morgan has seen the light.

This week, Morgan initiated coverage on several small gold
companies. The report said, "short term dollar weakness is
raising gold and the gold stocks." Morgan forecasts gold at
$335/oz in Q1 '03, also citing the possible war in Iraq as
a further boost to gold fortunes. Morgan's
favorites...Glamis Gold (GLG), Meridian Gold (MDG),
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Goldcorp (GG).

Morgan focused on North American gold producers, picking
two Nevada-based companies, GLG and MDG, and two Canadian
companies, AEM and GG. Not bad for a money center bank
spending the last 10 years selling the daylights out of
gold.

**************************

Review/Comments: JP Morgan forcasting a rise in the POG and taking an interest in gold stocks !? Sounds to me like they may realize, ironically, that gold stocks may be their only hedge to level out their derivitive positions. I'm sure that there are not enough gold shares combined to completely offset their bad bets, but can you imagine the demand that could create on the stocks?

They realize the jig is up. We will soon see them all scamble to cover as much as they can by buying physical and gold shares. Get your popcorn ready, it will be a great show.

*******

Allow me to add my thanks and gratatude to all who have served our nation. And a special prayer tonight for all those who payed the ultimate price.

Draco

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 19:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89353)
Lady GratefulForGold's QUESTION !! <;-)
GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 16:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89340)
Sir Gandalf -- The Contest
===
Your question about "Runners-up" is a good one !
Yes, one may truely feel that all numbers other than the WINNER is a 'runner-up', BUT these "Runners-up" are ONLY the NEXT closest the the WINNER. --- There normally are only two "Runners-up" and as you can see that if the WINNER is in the STACK of prices between $318.9 and $325.1 -- there will be two "Runners-up" --- one on either side of the WINNER ! However, as has happened, IF the WINNER is not "bracketed", there may well be THREE "Runners-up" depending on the correct Settlement Price and Prognostications !! BTW, these RULES are not yet setforth in CONCRETE (sorry, Rich for the simile) BUT, no one had ever ask before ! That must be why we have Ladies here, AY ?
<;-)

Old Yeller (11/11/02; 19:46:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 89352)
Aristotle

No,I think I've made myself quite clear.I have no
problem with credit,credit and eventual payback
either through taxation or profits earned through
investment creates our modern world with all it's
wonderful technology and conveniences.

I'm talking about borrowing in good faith and
reneging on your commitments to pay back in kind.
We've seen the US do this at least three times
in 70 years,the gold theft and subsequent revaluation
of FDR,Nixon breaking the Bretton Woods agreement
and keeping the gold in 1971,and the Plaza Accord
of 1985 which led directly to the Japanese bubble,
the Asian crisis and other assorted "unexpected
events".

Now,through the intense,convulted sleight
of hand of Rubin/Greenspan/Clinton/Summers
"dream team",we arrive at our current juncture.What
assets can the US offer the rest of the world for
it's 2-7 trillion in net holdings?

Name an asset that comes without a thick blanket
of debt or a invisible hook of explosive tinged
derivatives?

Have you seen the reports on the DOW 30 and just
how much debt is on their balance sheets
vis-a-vis tangible assets?

America's "greatest" company,GE,is an
inpenetratable mass of debt,counter-party
obligations,bubble gum and chicken wire.

Does it not bother you that the US can "spend"
360 billion USD's on "defense",to threaten
and cajole the world into doing it's bidding.
What of our collective future,as the US uses
irredeemable debt to further advance their
vast lead in military superiority?

We all have reasons to fear the US's
greatest scam in the annals of mankind,
even Americans do.

Your fine country has been taken over.
Ask not who needs a regime change.

Liberty Head (11/11/02; 19:23:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89351)
Thank You Belgian, Sierra Madre
After reading the excellent postings here on this Veterans Day, it is abundantly clear that Iraqi oil won't come cheap.

My special thanks to Trapper.

Tacitus (11/11/02; 19:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89350)
Thank you, Invisible Hand
Dear Invisible Hand,

Thanks for the interesting question, "Who will bring about the longest term effects, Bush or Saddam Hussein?" Anytime we try to stabilize the world so that economies can grow, we should ask what the long term effects will be. I'm afraid though that sometimes it can lead us to paralysis if we over analyse every possible consequence to everything we do.

I think in the long run people will not be blinded to our true motives. We and our government are not perfect by a long shot. However, look at Japan, Italy and Germany. After we crushed them in a terrible war, are we being attacked by terrorists from their country? Did we rape and kill like the old Imperialistic Japanese Government said we would? No. And once the people saw that we were interested in making them strong and free, they worked with us. One of our own "war-mongering" Generals, General MacArthur transformed Japan and had a great love in his heart for their culture and people. I believe if we have to go to war, and I hope we won't, that in the aftermath we will be able to build the same goodwill in Iraq.

There are some in the world that interpret every action by our government to be motivated by a desire to subjugate others. Some of us are afraid of the ramifications of military action everytime we see anti-American demonstrations. We fear military action will generate more anti-American sentiment.

Yet I think if they see that our objects are to make them free and strong and stable, so that we and the world can be more free, strong and stable, they will come around. So as far as long term consequences, I hope Bush and our nation will bring about the longest term consequences. Why? Because the average Iraqi and mainstream Muslim will know us by our fruits. If we could help turn Iraq into a stable and productive country, that would be the best PR and have the best long term consequences.

In the final analysis, I want to see a world in which there is a lot for us to buy with our gold. That world is a world which is not threatened by instability. I believe the UN and America are taking the world in the right direction.

Salve,
Tacitus

Aristotle (11/11/02; 19:11:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89349)
Old Yeller, I'll focus on the economics, and in that I think you're stretching
You say, "The world cries out for honest money based on real tangible wealth."

I think you're mixing apples and oranges. I think the world is indeed crying out for tangible wealth -- based on real tangible wealth. Period. Simply put, they want a material improvement in lifestyle and a secure reserve of purchasing power. However, I think you're reading way too much of your own personal wants into the world's wants when you drag money itself into the equation as the means to that end. Why must they be made the same? Barter is barter, and credit is credit. Ideally, never the twain shall cross. We've been down that road.

To be sure, barter is a good wholesome thing. A simple thing. Maybe that's it's primary appeal to some people. Simplicity. You can get your mind around it. It's payment-in-full, tangible value traded for tangible value. Some people can only imagine Gold shining at its brightest when put to heavy use as the universal bartering agent. They'd like to call it money. But that's where the corruption begins. The corruption of tangible Gold and the corruption of barter's payment-in-full go hand-in-hand with the borrowing and lending of money on repayment plans.

But let's not be too hasty...

Other than its contrast with simple barter, I can't understand why so many seemingly rational people demonize credit wherever Gold advocates gather. Credit is a fine thing! It's an expression of man's belief in his fellow man. It's not counterfeiting in any way, shape or form, and neither is a monetary system that floats along on credit. Sure, it can be abused, but that's not unique. Everything you can think of is subject to abuses and misuse.

The true abuse is dressing up credit as though it were Gold and then selling the lie as payment-in-full.

Credit is good! Call it credit, call it dollars, call it euros, call it whatever. Call it a monetary accounting system beyond your comprehension, but please don't call it counterfeit and don't demonize one of man's finest acheivements.

Gold is good! Call it Gold, call it tangible wealth, call it portable property, call it a hard asset, call it payment-in-full. But please don't call it money and whatever you do don't call it honest money because money implies the ability to make fungible payments and that implies banking and credit which undermines the original (simple fantastic) value Gold can acheive when either offered singularly (purely) as payment on the barrelhead or else accumulated as vital tangible savings against the inevitable dwindling of the monetary unit.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gimli_ (11/11/02; 18:26:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89348)
SJ Kaplan updated his website tonight
http://truecontrarian.com/
Monday, November 11, 2002: The overall current outlook for gold and its shares has risen from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH. There is not as much insider selling now as in September when the HUI was in the mid- to upper-130s, and seniors are beginning to outperform relative to juniors, both of which are positive developments. On the negative side, the traders� commitments for gold are still unencouraging, and the traders� commitments for currencies which correlate closely with the gold price are at multi-year extremes, indicating the likelihood of a U.S. dollar rally which will likely depress the gold price.

Monday, November 11, 2002: The insider stock transaction activity for gold has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as the intensity of insider selling has noticeably abated, as one would expect given the decline in gold share prices since the middle of September. No important insider buying has yet emerged.

R Powell (11/11/02; 18:05:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89347)
Aristotle
Your reply (89324) to Mr. Bill started with these words,
"Fortunately however, not everyone else was born yesterday..."

Yet I've heard you complain repeatedly (in response to the charge) that you do not understand why your words often seem patronizing and condescending. You certainly have the knack of giving the impression that you view yourself as all-knowing, that you consider yourself absolutely right and that those of us who disagree "just don't get it". A conviction of belief may be an admirable quality but exuding smugness is not. The ultimate put down of answering a question with the suggestion that a rereading of your words will either supply the answer or the questioner isn't intelligent enough to understand is most infuriating.
I have nothing to add to the discussion between you and Mr. Bill but suggest you may want to examine the attitude you often convey in most of your offerings. I mean no disrespect but suggest you may want to converse in a like manner.
Regards,
Rich (aka, the creature from the dark side)

Elwood (11/11/02; 17:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89346)
Aristotle (11/11/02; 13:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89324)

From Part 3:
"The war against Iraq, then, could be an opportunity for new economic development."

Like Mr. Bill said, "Poppycock."

Delusions of grandeur are still delusions. Pity the poor saps on both sides who are about to give their lives in the interests of economic development.

Chris Powell (11/11/02; 17:46:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 89345)
A few years ago GATA was nuts....
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1288
... Now it's almost conventional wisdom:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1288

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Mr. Bill (11/11/02; 17:33:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 89344)
@Aristotle msg#: 89324
I take it from your reply that you must have an advanced degree in sheep herding. It is the only way that I can find to explain your belief that the survival of 6 billion people on this planet is dependent on Bush being able to play king for a day. But you are quite right is saying that lessons have been learned. The only problem is that lessons have only made the elite more cunning and dangerous. The general populace only learns what the TV guy tells them. And their kids get fooled in school.

So when I read a piece of elitist propaganda, I can see it for what it is. It is just a way for them try to appear to be use to the rest of us. But do we really need kings and queens and those others bent on glory? The elite do not serve for "the good of mankind". They have no use for mankind. The lining of their pockets from the slow and the convinced is what really makes their day. And many of them have been given many talents and yet they do not seem to comprehend the concept of what a shepherd really is.

Gold. I have lots.

Genoo (11/11/02; 17:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89343)
GratefulForGold #89337
There is an eloquence in the manner in which you phrase your appreciation.

Old Yeller (11/11/02; 17:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89342)
Tactitus,I did not say Americans are terrorists

I clearly stated who the culprit really is.Furthermore,
I would suggest that you read some history on the CIA
and other US government sponsored alphabet organizations.

Ask the people of Indonesia,Belgian Congo,the Phillipines,
Iran,Chile,El Salvador,Guatamala,Colombia,Argentina,
Angola,etc.etc.,who the real terrorists are.

Have you heard of The School of the Americas?

How about Operation Chaos,when the American
government waged a covert war on their own people?

All of this is made possible by printing up
money out of thin air,based on confidence.

I am really starting to wonder just what
really is behind this "full faith and
credit" of the US government.

The US net external debt(money owned to foreign
creditors,less assets)is anywhere from
2 Trillion to 7 trillion,no one really
knows.

If the US were to settle their trade deficits in gold,
as before The Fed attached itself the world's jugular
vein,the gold "reserve",if in fact,it actually exists,
would last about two months.

Who is responsible for high oil prices?

Without the blown out US demand,paid for with
funny money,there would be a glut of oil.

Bear in mind,however,oil demand constantly
increases as reserves fall.The world is
running out of oil,that is why Iraq must
be subjugated and a US "Shah of Iran" style
lackie installed.

Today is a very significant day,the day we
remember those who fell defending freedom.
I'm tired of wars of deception,which is what
this current "war"is all about.War that is made
possible by saddling the American people
with yet more debt.Debt that must either be defaulted
on,inflated away,or forgiven using Mafia style
protection techniques

The world cries out for honest money based
on real tangible wealth,the Federal Reserve
Note does NOT qualify for this role.

The American people should begin to examine their
role in this tragic deception.Everyone loves a party,
but this one has gone on far too long.The US has been
stolen away from the people,by thieves,liars and
murderers.

The Invisible Hand (11/11/02; 16:56:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 89341)
@Tacitus
Was it not you who gladly referred to Henry Hazlitt?
If not, this is his lesson: "The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but a the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups."
Whose policy has more long term effects? Saddam's or Bush (and his predecessors)'s?

GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 16:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89340)
Sir Gandalf -- The Contest
This being my first Contest participation, may I inquire about the term "runners-up?" Perhaps I missed the information, but I can't tell how many runners-up there will be(to receive the silver eagles). Possibly all who submitted a losing entry are runners-up? heh. :O)

Thank you for all your efforts in making this Contest fun!

mikal (11/11/02; 16:51:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89339)
@tacitus
"Since nobody believes we are trying to turn Iraq into the 51st state, we and the world can stop worrying about that." On the contrary, those supporting war are currently a minority, and barring another staged 911, will remain so. Many prominent people believe Iraqi oil is a major objective, including a great many ousted military officers who opposed Clinton and Bush policies publicly.

Cavan Man (11/11/02; 16:50:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89338)
With all Due respect....
.....a "clear thinking" contextual discussion with Sir Tacitus cannot be advanced. (Reminds me of a certain gentleman from NE of Italian persuasion).

Or, put it simply: If I see one more tiny housewife with one small child driving a HUGE Suburban bedecked in American flags I am going to.......

GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 16:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89337)
Veterans
I would like to add my deepest gratitude to each of you who has "used" part of your life's energies in helping to make the USA the place it is today. While it is far from perfect and there are many things I dislike, you are not to blame for that. I respect the strength, courage and sacrifice of each of you.

If any of you are Viet Nam Veterans, I would like to give you my heartfelt appreciation. You are my generation � my brothers, my classmates, my friends, my lovers � and I feel a deep sorrow for your sacrifices from which so many of you have never recovered. All wars produce scars but I feel yours were of the mind, heart and spirit far more. Viet Nam is a blight upon our government and I am so sorry you heroes did not have better leadership, respect and recognition. Not to mention better treatment for your invisible wounds. It was the times in which we lived.

I only pray that our future veterans� sacrifices are not in vain and Iraq or any other conflict/war does not destroy a generation of young, bright, vital lives.

If war is necessary, it must be fought. But I pray our motives are clear, honest and pure (assuming such things are possible with "war"). May God help us all.

mikal (11/11/02; 16:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 89336)
@Tacitus
How is Saddam "messing with the world economy and world peace"? According to who and what documented factual evidence? And Bush, based on what evidence do you conclude he wishes the best for the "world and gold"?

Tacitus (11/11/02; 16:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89335)
Americans are Terrorists?!
Dear Old Yeller,

Perhaps we are counterfeiters, one could make that argument. So for the sake of argument let me grant you that premise. All the same, how can you make a moral equivalency between counterfeiting and taking thousands of civilian lives?

Furthermore, we do not directly target civilians, terrorists do. Again, there is no moral equivalency. If you argue it doesn't matter whether they are killed intentionally or unintentionally, I would say such reasoning would prevent us from ever fighting a war in self defense. There would still be a Hitler and not a Jew or Christian left in this world. And worst of all for all of us Gold lovers, Hitler or his successor would have all the gold. We would be stuck with all the counterfeited confetti!!!

So hurrah for the war on Terror and for private Gold ownership.

salve,
Tacitus

Tacitus (11/11/02; 16:22:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89334)
American Foriegn Policy
Dear RobotGuy,

I can't keep up on all that has been written in this Forum about foreign policy. A lot has been written recently in regard to why we are so interested in Iraq.

I find the President's explanation quite clear. Everybody is interested in his motives. Only he knows what those are. I tend to trust him but let's look at some of the arguments. Some say we are only interested in oil. I say we should be interested in oil, everybody and every nation. Without it, all shuts down and not one of us on this forum will have enough gold to pay for enough oil to get us through this winter. No crime in being concerned about oil. The crime would be in trying to take possession of it and sell at a big profit. Since nobody believes we are trying to turn Iraq into the 51st state, we and the world can stop worrying about that.

What is the Presidents argument? He would probably put it this way:
If we tolerate Saddam, we only encourage other tyrants. We can not allow the U.N. to be made a fool of. If we do, then we will even have to take more on than we already have to as a nation. And as far as leaving "well enough alone", it is bad management to leave the oil supply of the world so vulnerable. Remember what he did to the oil fields of Kuwait? Stability is good for the world economy. And for all you peace lovers, I love peace too. But as President Reagan said, "Peace through strength". The best bet for peace is to make it clear this time (the 16th time?), that we mean business. The vote from Congress and the unanimous vote from the UN security council does exactly that. Even Saddam Hussein will see I am not bluffing. This is the best bet for peace. And if he calls my "bluff", he will find that to be a big mistake. All the same, after the war resulting from Saddam's mistake, we as a world could avoid many other wars because tyrants would think twice and then some before messing with the world economy and world peace. It is because I am for peace that I have with the help of Congress and the UN drawn a line in the sand. I have moved the troops to the MidEast not because I want a war but because I want Saddam to know that this time we mean business. The troops are there exactly because it gives us our best chance for peace.

And if some of you think I would throw away young American lives just to avenge the attempt on my Father's life, you obviously do not know me.

This is what I think our president has been trying to say in so many words. My hope is that somebody will get the nerve to take Saddam and his Sons into custody and over through the government. If it were to happen this would be the greatest political coupe of the President and UN ever.

Some of us might disagree with his reasoning but let's stop imputing such wicked motives to the man. He does genuinely care about the world, this country, our economy, and our Gold.

Salve,
Tacitus

Blackjack (11/11/02; 16:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 89333)
What happens when a RE bubble bursts
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,153807,00.html
TOKYO - Senior manager Kanji Ito bought his modest two-bedroom Tokyo apartment for 100 million yen (S$1.4 million) in the 1980s.

Last year, it was valued at a mere 50 million yen. His loss from asset deflation is mirrored by home buyers who bought properties before 1990.

According to a White Paper on the economy released by economic czar Heizo Takenaka this week, such losses, including those sustained by companies, have amounted to 1.16 quadrillion yen (S$17 trillion) since the burst of the 1990 bubble.

The amount is twice the size of the country's gross domestic product.

For people like Mr Ito, it has meant paying a higher monthly amount as banks reconfigure their loans to take in the lower value of the properties.

Some even had to take out a second mortgage when banks required them to top-up their loans.

The situation is made worse as it comes at a time of declining income.
_____________________
Giddyup Gold

Arcticfox (11/11/02; 15:51:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 89332)
Kaplan...
http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/ProspectorAssetManagement/1036957118.php
Snip...

While, in general, the precious metals markets showed modest gains in value last week, news events, actions by the Federal Reserve Board and the United Nations have changed the internal dynamics of the precious metals markets. The probabilities for a robust rally in the gold market have now increased, and the chances of us seeing significantly lower prices have greatly lessened.

The decision by the Federal Reserve Board to drop short-term interest rates by a surprising �% was certainly quite significant for the gold market. Interest rates are now at their lowest rate since July of 1961. This was the 12th consecutive mandated decline in interest rates in this cycle, and this recent action was the first taken all year. I fail to understand why this august body decided to cut interest rates, as their past 11 actions, totaling 475 basis points, has accomplished very little to stimulate the economy or to reinvigorate the stock markets. As an example, although the US Central Bank has been historically stimulative the past two years, the S&P's, a wide measure of the equities markets, has fallen 40%.

Old Yeller (11/11/02; 15:34:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 89331)
Aristotle

Lessons on morality and justification for
killing innocents cannot be given by a
counterfeiter.

The US "empire"is a sham,built on debt
and exploitation,fostered by the
outrageously biased and criminal
Bretton Woods Agreement.

The Federal Reserve Note is the real terrorist.

R Powell (11/11/02; 15:11:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 89330)
Contest // Remembrance
If my math is correct, a December closing price tomorrow of $5991.60 will make Invisible Hand and Clint H co-winners. Actually, this might be somewhat shocking to the world financial system so I'm hoping for a less disruptive close of $543.20. I believe this would put the golden prize in the most deserving paws of the one who has worked so steadfastly to coordinate our fun.
Thanks to the Wizard
Thanks also to all those who saved all the private Ryans of the past. May we never forget but would that the need for such could fade from memory.
Rich

RobotGuy (11/11/02; 14:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89329)
Excuse me for being ignorant, but I'm still not sure exactly what is happening here.
Bush said "February" almost a year ago. Troops are on their way and have been for quite some time. The airport base in Qatar has undergone massive enhancements to service a possible military strike. Note the word 'possible' to be entirely obsolete.
I do not support the meaningless casualties that have been directed and applauded by Saddam, and I think it's inherently obvious that the strike will happen. My curiosity is to know exactly what it is that Makes Mr. Bush feel as though he must initiate a possible unilateral strike. I understand that Saddam encourages and funds terrorist activity, and that he is not a sweet wonderful person, and terrorist activities in the United States could somehow be linked to him. Saddam could never launch a massive attack on the United States, he simply does not have the arsenal or technology. Chemical weapons? Sure Saddam has chemical weapons, we know that from all the veterans of the gulf war that are currently suffering various ailments as a result of exposure to these horrible devices. The only difficulty for Saddam is how to convey these terrible devices to the American people. It would be much easier for him to hurt Americans if they went over there, because he has no long range capabilities.
I just keep hearing Bush say "protect the American people", but it seems so ironic to me.

I'm sorry guys, I don't think this one is a good idea.

Aristotle (11/11/02; 14:42:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89328)
Belgian 89319
I toss my hat skyward in celebration of your clear presentation of an otherwise difficult concept. The simple use of your coke bottle, sugar, and rice examples were masterly.

Gold. Gold. Gold. --- Ari

Waverider (11/11/02; 14:36:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 89327)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Thanks BB :)

Ten Bears (11/11/02; 14:31:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89326)
Veterans Day
A salute to the veterans who post here. Our active duty may be behind us, but thanks to this forum we may exchange ideas and pass on information. The pen (internet) may prove to be more powerful than all the arms of war. A salute also to individual freedom and the Bill of Rights for which we served and still vigorously support.

Belgian (11/11/02; 14:07:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 89325)
W. Duisenberg - ECB
Gold, was / is / and remains an *** IMPORTANT ***, monetary asset/reserve !

Physical Gold in possession, stashed in your vault, has the explicit meaning of being a "RESERVE".
A reserve is a "reliable" valuable with a fluctuating price.
Few, do grasp the intrinsic meaning of "reserve" and their perception on how valuable or not this reserve is, can easely be altered with the pricing of that reliable valuable reserve.
Psychological effect of "the price" on anything, valuable or worthless. Give something very valuable a low price and 99% of the public loses that perceptive notion of valuable and ignores that valuable.
Give something worthless a high price and 99% of the general public does percept this at least as semi-valuable or almost valuable and is therefore desired.

That's WHY and HOW, POG has been managed since its valuation has been stopped and reversed in 1980.
Compare those past 21 years of POG-management with the inverse management on paper pricings, where we landed in 2000 at obscene over-valuations ! The brotherhood, you know ! Don't sell this common sense to those who still possess or trade stocks. You risk some brutality with this.

For the same reason, IRs are at a 41 years low. Bond-pricing ! And don't believe all these nonsenses that low / lower IRs have any effect on real economic expansion.
I do repeat : nonsense ! Too long to explain in detail, why...but simply have a look at Numero Duo, Japan !
But these low/lower IRs are another tool in the battle of *perceptual*, confetti-confidence, more and more needed than ever. So many lies and half thruths are constantly repeated, over and over again, without any reaction possible. This is not only happening on the financial aspect of our life but also on many other aspects. Totalirism ! That's it for today. I enjoyed writing this as usual.

Aristotle (11/11/02; 13:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89324)
Mr. Bill, your comments are fair enough taken in isolation
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ18Ak02.html
Fortunately however, not everyone else was born yesterday, and so the lessons learned from mankind in antiquity and from two modern World Wars are not so easily dismissed as you would have them be.

The survival of 6 billion people, striving for the best possible terms, is a delicate business that you should strive to see for what it is.

That Sisci article served as an excellent and accessible introduction to the realities and delicacies of dynamic balance between sovereignty and survival (each as it applies at all levels -- individual to group.)

Now, why don't you borrow one of those spare pairs of Perle's undies that you've told us about and give the series a more open-minded read. If that's asking too much, then I'll walk away with one word of enduring advice...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Old Yeller (11/11/02; 13:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 89323)
Stealing Gold
http://skybluemonthly.freeservers.com/sbm/sbm00m.htm

"After an economic collapse,governments always
have two choices,(1)lower interest rates,(2)print money."

Or if you are totally morally bankrupt(3)start
a war,especially when it will bail out your
friends in the oil,arms and banking industries.

Mr.Bill,bravo.

Please keep an eye out for Mr. Hand.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 13:45:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89322)
UK says gold sales were a success
http://www.mips1.net/MGLdn.nsf/Current/8525690B0032142042256C6C002F4FC5?OpenDocument

Snippit:

LONDON - The UK Treasury is brushing aside all criticism of the way it auctioned off more than half of Britain's gold reserves, a move that provoked protests from the World Gold Council, the producers� organisation, and the governments of some African gold-producing countries. In an internal review of the sale process which ended in March this year, just published, the Treasury pats itself on the back for a job well done. The review insists the UK received a good price for its gold and defends the way the precious metal was disposed of through well-publicised auctions. It suggests that covert sales might have had a bigger negative impact on the gold price. The review implies suggestions that the UK sold its gold too cheaply are wide of the mark. It says the weighted average price achieved was US$274.92 an ounce over the course of the auction compared with the weighted average London "Fix" price of $274.17, some 17 cents or 0.3 percent better.

Black Blade: And what a stellar success it was too. Only about $45 less an ounce than now. I can hardly contain myself. I haven't heard this good a tall tale for awhile. Meanwhile the lions share of that gold is now sitting in other countries central banks. The Swiss avoided the "Dutch Auction" method and achieved a much better return. Politicians never cease to amaze with the phoney baloney stories that they spew out for public consumption.

Old Yeller (11/11/02; 13:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89321)
And they tell us gold is a losing investment...
http://www.buycoin.com/images/content/reports/chart1.gif

Won't they don't tell us.

They also don't tell us that gold prevents
them from starting wars.

Too bad that Chevy has already appropriated
the song,"Like A Rock".

I can think of a product that suits
the song much better.

sector (11/11/02; 13:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89320)
BIS Gold Derivatives Rose from $ 231Billion to $279 Billion
This 21% hike was in spite of stated hedgebook closures...
...by Barrick, Newmont and Anglogold.

Sonn we get the forwards and options data which will tell a tale indeed.

It's more central bank gold loans to drain the treasuries of the cabal.

Belgian (11/11/02; 13:23:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89319)
Support of a currency (Hipplebeck/SM)
Any currency is worth what its purchasing power says it is !
A US$ has a thousand different values (prices), because its purchasing power (powers) are so different in places (and time). Take a trip around the world and buy a standard bottle of coke under the same circumstances. How many different prices, will you encounter, for the same identical (standard) product, coke, with the same printed dollar confetti !? Confusing, isn't it ?

Therefore, there must be a thousand different reasons why any currency is strong or weak, depending on who is judging that US$ and where or when. A US dollar is valued in a different purchasing power by thousand different producers of the same (identical) product.

I agree it is a rather unusual approach towards any currency and its intrinsic worth or perceived purchasing power. Normally, price-differences are blamed on the product/service itself. But vieuwing it the other way around is shifting some light on the complexity of the whole currency system as such.

BUT....

Wherever you go on this globe, one ounce of refined 0,999 Gold will be exchangable for exactly the same amount of dollar-confetti at the same moment ! Yes, only Gold and the same quality of oil. Isn't that remarkable ? This can't be said for, identical, rice, coffee, grain, etc...

1 Kg rice/sugar bought in Thailand will cost less dollars than the same rice/sugar bought in India. W're talking about the same rice/sugar paid for with the same units of US dollar.

This to illustrate that any "monetary" policy is a very complicated and extensive, all-embracing, excercise in fiat management/promotion/support.

And the above babylonian entanglement on the multiple perceptive value on each and every currency, brings us ALL, automatically back to the, eternal, VALUATION of that one and only, ounce of Gold, anywhere, anytime !

HE/SHE WHO HAS THE GOLD, DECIDES WHAT YOUR PAPER IS WORTH !

Pr� 1971, 1 ounce 0,999 Gold, was equivalent to 34 notes of 1 US dollar. But only an infinitesimal fraction of all these dollars could be exchanged for the available Gold. Therefore it was decided that from then on, paper-money was no more and got its status of "confetti". Wich should have been done already long before 1971 for the simple reason that there wasn't enough Gold to redeem each and every packet of 34$ with one ounce.

In what followed, unofficially, from before 1971 and officially from 1971 onwards, you have the answer on : How do they support the US$ being the globe's reserve currency as to wich all other currencies are to be aligned.
As long as a ridiculous amount of dollar-paper is needed to obtain one ounce of refined Gold, that paper is to be perceived/percepted as STRONG ! And again on one condition that not too many people doubt about this (falsified) paper-strength and therefore don't take up physical Gold in possession ! Voila, that's how they do it ! A monetary policy (and many other policies-tricks) that give universal evidence that very little paper is needed to obtain the ultimate standard of money (Gold).

Under the chapter of monetary policy, than fall automatically the mastering of the public confidence in the printed confetti. And on this, I don't think that much explanation is necessary on how this false-misleading, confidence is obtained ?

The war on oil is to be regarded as an element into American monetary policy. The POO could unsettle/unmask the confidence in the purchasing power (intrinsic worth) of the US$ (still the reserve currency) and is therefore declared a state enemy (the POO-enemy) !

All those who are making their living under the umbrella of the financial brotherhood in collusion with the political/economical, rulers ...have to do their job of confetti-confidence-building. Otherwise, y're out !

Westerners do feel comfortable, at present (!!!), with the ongoing status quo. But as Another and Sinclair, already signaled, Easterners do think/feel/act, very differently on the relationship between paper and Gold !
These two forces, west and east, will break the paper's back at a certain conjunction, with the Golden straw !
Monetary policies in the future will drastically be simplified around the axis of FREE GOLD.

And honor to who honor should be adressed...it is only at M. kosares's business, here, that this is discussed ! Thanks again, honorable host !

Mr. Bill (11/11/02; 12:55:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 89318)
@Aristotle msg#: 89241- poppycock
I am glad to see that you have taken up the gauntlet. But I am less than impressed with your attempts on the messenger's life. After all, how could anyone hate the average na�ve American?

The article contains drivel on so many levels that it is hard to know where to begin. The main premise seems to be that if you have the means then the end is justified. So the US, because "it is the strongest, everybody knows it, and no nation in its right mind can challenge it", has a right to control the world. Somehow I think that a lot of people on this planet might disagree with that conclusion. The author, right from the opening paragraph, seems to believe in the divine right of king George to pursue empire.

snip
Unilaterally, driven by the selfish pursuit of its national interests, the US is said to be willing to step on anybody's head to keep and protect its primacy in the world. But even if this blunt analysis is accurate, this in the end amounts to a normal imperial policy.
endsnip

But then the author would have us believe that the US agonizes over the wearing of this mantle.

snip
The United States, though also an empire, can't bring itself to adopt the Roman ways. It can't stand other people's hatred and even resents the fact that its foreign policy is labeled "hegemonistic".
endsnip

Now while this may be true of the lowly citizen, it does not apply to the leadership. The likes of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle lose no sleep over being loved. They revel in the thought of war. It is rumored that Perle carries a change of underwear because sometimes he gets so excited thinking about the bombing, that he wets himself.

snip
The overlord, the hegemon, would impose its lead only by the use of force, while the wang, the righteous king, would lead by virtue, by what in modern terms we could define as persuasion.
endsnip

Lead by persuasion? Somehow the dropping of bombs and sending in 200,000 persuaders seems like a little excessive persuasion. Now all of these illusions about a benevolent US spreading democracy and capitalism around the world may exist at the common folk level, but the ruling elite have no such illusions. They are driven by power and goaded on by greed, and they will never have enough.

So it is time to awaken, and realize that you are being had. Because once they have beaten fascism, communism and terrorism, the only thing left to eliminate will be individualism.

And at that point in time, waving a flag just is not going to cut it.

Mr Gresham (11/11/02; 12:52:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89317)
Sir Trapper
This station is signing off (computer shutdown -- it's all I could think of in the moment after reading you) for one hour in respect to you and your fellows. I know that you took that one for me.

Thank you. And that's a lifetime "thanks", too.

TownCrier (11/11/02; 12:24:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89316)
It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas (especially at the URL below)
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html
Give the gift of gold -- the unique gift that keeps on giving . . . year after year.

It is never too soon to take care of business, especially when it comes to the right treatment for that special someone. Call Marie (ext.106) for helpful insights and assistance as you navigate the tricky world of women's fashions and taste.

Why pay sales tax, jewlery store mark-ups, and fight the crowded malls when you don't have to? Get in the holiday spirit and STAY in the holiday spirit. It's easy. Call Marie, Santa's favorite elf.

(I'm sure to catch flack for that one, so call her and distract her. Please?) 1-800-869-5115

R.

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 12:20:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89315)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
FINAL "OFFICIAL" LISTINGS of Entries !

GOOD LUCK ALL --- as we await tomorrows GC2Z SETTLEMENT Price

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :
11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6
11/11/02 was $321.6 - $0.1 High = $322.1 and Low = $320.1

(looks as if Sir Nobel1 is the present "KING of the HILL" !! GOOD LUCK !
<;-)

====

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$ ?X? $$$$ Aristotle (11/11/02; 11:56:34MT - msg#: 89311
*****LOVE IT !! <;-)

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 332.0 $$$$ Houston (11/11/02; 10:13:17MT - msg#: 89290

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743
$$$$ 326.4 $$$$ Aureo Speedwagon (11/10/02; 20:19:15MT - msg#: 89216
$$$$ 326.3 $$$$ Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:45:32MT - msg#: 89221

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Prometheus (11/10/02; 11:50:11MT - msg#: 89194

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ goldquest (11/11/02; 10:23:52MT - msg#: 89293
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063
--
$$$$ 324.7 ****for Sir Skydog as it is tough to keep a Skydog "down" !
<;-)
--
$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774
$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Time For GOLD (11/11/02; 11:45:16MT - msg#: 89305
$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/02; 09:27:27MT - msg#: 89191
$$$$ 324.3 $$$$ RobotGuy (11/11/02; 11:06:37MT - msg#: 89297
$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Shermag (11/09/02; 19:13:41MT - msg#: 89168
$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ Neubie (11/11/02; 11:06:40MT - msg#: 89298
$$$$ 324.0 $$$$ otish mountain (11/11/02; 10:10:49MT - msg#: 89289
$$$$ 323.9 $$$$ Blackjack (11/10/02; 23:48:07MT - msg#: 89246
$$$$ 323.8 $$$$ The CoinGuy (11/10/02; 22:43:43MT - msg#: 89238
$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787
$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ Electrum (11/10/02; 14:55:29MT - msg#: 89201
$$$$ 323.5 $$$$ makcumka (11/11/02; 09:59:05MT - msg#: 89287
$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730
$$$$ 323.3 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (11/11/02; 09:03:23MT - msg#: 89271
$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908
$$$$ 323.1 $$$$ Scarab (11/10/02; 17:19:48MT - msg#: 89205
$$$$ 323.0 $$$$ jlfletc (11/11/02; 09:58:35MT - msg#: 89286
$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764
$$$$ 322.8 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (11/10/02; 12:46:40MT - msg#: 89198
$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073
$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ Gimli_ (11/11/02; 08:12:06MT - msg#: 89268
$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020
$$$$ 322.4 $$$$ ManAurum (11/09/02; 22:03:13MT - msg#: 89177
$$$$ 322.3 $$$$ Boilermaker (11/11/02; 04:01:13MT - msg#: 89261
$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767
$$$$ 322.0 $$$$ Just waking up (11/10/02; 15:56:20MT - msg#: 89202
$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ Yellow Metal (11/10/02; 05:49:21MT - msg#: 89185
$$$$ 321.8 $$$$ Ole Man (11/10/02; 20:38:04MT - msg#: 89219
$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851
$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ mikal (11/10/02; 23:29:53MT - msg#: 89244
$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999
$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ timbervision (11/10/02; 23:46:03MT - msg#: 89245
$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763
$$$$ 321.1 $$$$ Black Blade (11/10/02; 23:28:26MT - msg#: 89243
$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892
$$$$ 320.7 $$$$ seagull (11/09/02; 21:47:22MT - msg#: 89176
$$$$ 320.6 $$$$ Gold N Rule (11/10/02; 21:59:18MT - msg#: 89228
$$$$ 320.5 $$$$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067
$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Waverider (11/11/02; 00:24:24MT - msg#: 89250
$$$$ 320.3 $$$$ Yukon (11/10/02; 20:11:26MT - msg#: 89214
$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906
$$$$ 320.1 $$$$ goldenboy (11/11/02; 09:14:33MT - msg#: 89275
$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ harryo (11/10/02; 21:50:09MT - msg#: 89226
$$$$ 319.6 $$$$ Genoo (11/11/02; 08:58:15MT - msg#: 89270
$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839
$$$$ 319.3 $$$$ canamami (11/11/02; 09:40:42MT - msg#: 89279
$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748
$$$$ 319,1 $$$$ Trurl (11/10/02; 20:19:57MT - msg#: 89217

LATE and WITHOUT a Rule 7 Paragraph
$319.00 Pilgrims Gold (11/11/02; 12:01:55MT - msg#: 89312
I too was a member of the Procrastinators of America Club, but ---
<;-)

$$$$ 318.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (11/10/02; 20:17:16MT - msg#: 89215

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ BILLYG (11/10/02; 21:04:59MT - msg#: 89222

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 Rule 7 nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 316.2 $$$$ SWEET 16 (11/10/02; 20:36:10MT - msg#: 89218

$$$$ 315.6 $$$$ silvercollector (11/10/02; 06:58:06MT - msg#: 89188

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ Christian (11/10/02; 06:46:53MT - msg#: 89187

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ****** as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
-----
<;-)

Skydog (11/11/02; 12:09:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89314)
If I'm not too late...
how about $$$$$ $324.5 $$$$$?

Pilgrims Gold (11/11/02; 12:03:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89313)
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
Too Late!

Pilgrims Gold (11/11/02; 12:01:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 89312)
********** $319.00 ************
BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE PICKED IT!

Aristotle (11/11/02; 11:56:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89311)
$$$$ ?X? $$$$
Buying Gold now is not like buying it in the 1960's for several reasons, but primarily Gold is a much better value today with an upside potential that is far more imminent now than it was then.

Fundamentally Gold's value was capped back then by the structure of the international monetary system based on the Gold Standard of Bretton Woods. Convertibility in the framework of a modern banking system succeeds only in subordinating the hard asset to the nominal monetary unit as I've previously detailed. That subordination lasts until the strains on the system reach the inevitable breaking point. In the 1960's, this breaking point could be vaguely foreseen, but there was no clear indication that Gold would subsequently emerge completely free from it's entanglements with the banking system.

It didn't. That's how it's possible that we've got Gold prices today which are ONLY $300ish.

Fortunately, the greater monetary minds have used the learning experience of the last century to recognize the points of instability and non-sustainablility, and over the past three decades have slowly but surely crafted a structure that will unencumber Gold's value from the everlasting downdraft of bank money.

We eagerly await the first primary phase shift that is in sight now, but wasn't in the 1960's. Ka-POW!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 11:53:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89310)
ATTENTION Sir Skydog --- PREVIOUSLY taken Guess !!!
Skydog (11/11/02; 11:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89306)
$$$$$ 324.1 $$$$$
==
Please TRY AGAIN !!
<;-)

slingshot (11/11/02; 11:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 89309)
VETERANS DAY
A Day To Remember
I just ran the STAR SPANGLED BANNER up. Today I will remember those have served in the military and the reasons why they went to war. Over the years I was fortunate to talk to those who served in WWII, Korea,Vietnam, and Desert Storm. Pearl Harbor survivor, Indianapolis survivor,Inchon Vet,A.V.G Flying Tiger, Vietnam (Khie Shan) survivor,and Desert storm.I have listen to their stories with interest.
I have seen their wounds from the ravages of war, no words can describe my feelings.

To those who went in HARMS WAY a special THANK YOU and WELCOME HOME.

I lift my glass of cheer in your HONOR.

Job Well Done. My Brothers.

Slingshot------------<>

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 11:49:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89308)
<;-)
Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock !!!
The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :
11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6
11/11/02 was $321.6 - $0.1 High = $322.1 and Low = $320.1

It looks as if Sir Noble1 is the present "KING of the HILL" !! GOOD LUCK !
<;-)

makcumka (11/11/02; 11:49:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89307)
@ Black Blade, msg #89262
Interesting info. The $ - rouble excange rate now is around 32 roubles/$. So, 25 roubles = 1/10 oz, 1 oz = 250 roubles = $320 in gold weight. Comes out to .78/$1. Looking at the face coin value, 250 roubles (1 ounce worth) = $50 (1 ounce). Comes out to 5/$1. Either way, nowhere near 32/$1 ratio.

Same with silver, 2 roubles = 1/2 oz, 4 roubles = 1 oz = $4.50. 0.89/$1 ration. Face value, 4 roubles - $1. 4/$1 ratio. Just wondering if this had any relevance. Maybe, Putin is establishing his gold standard.

I will definitely find out what these coins are going for. If it is close to face value, it is an outstanding buying opportunity.

Skydog (11/11/02; 11:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89306)
$$$$$ 324.1 $$$$$
Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's?

IMVHO...yes! Like Goldquest, I too completed my second tour in "Nam" in the late sixties only to return to an America who's very fabric was being torn apart with civil unrest. Unlike the 60's, however, the cause for the civil unrest we are yet to see will be driven by the breakdown in our society and not war. However, the end result for gold will be the same as it did in the 70's. In other words..."To da moon Alice!!!"

Regards...
Skydog

Time For GOLD (11/11/02; 11:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89305)
$$$$324.50$$$$
(Repost as the other price was already taken)
Is buying gold now like buying it at $35 an ounce in the late 1960's?
Yes, there are many similarities. One of the guides to predicting the price of gold that I follow is the performance of the gold stocks as a leading indicator. Also I look at the relative performances of the Dow, the US$ and the gold price. When taking a look at the late 60s/early 70s I see a particularly strong correlation to today's markets with the 1972-1974 period, especially from May to July of 1973. This period is strikingly similar to the 2 month period that began in late May of this year. In both cases the gold price pulled back even as the Dow continued to grind lower and the US$ plunged. The peak in the HUI that occurred in late May of this year lines up almost perfectly with the peak in the Barrons Gold Mining Index that occurred in early July of 1973. The difference is that when the HUI peaked earlier this year it was well ahead of where the BGMI was at its July 1973 peak. The HUI outperformed the BGMI during 2000-2002 considering that the surge in gold stock prices between January 1972 and July 1973 was accompanied by a 150% increase in the gold price whereas the surge in gold stock prices between November 2000 and May 2002 was accompanied by only a 30% increase in the gold price. After the recent Fall correction, the HUI is now about even with where the Barrons Gold Mining Index was at a similar stage in the 1972-1974 bull market. Based on this relationship, the BGMI portends an imminent rally for gold stocks and gold. I chose $324.30 as my guess. But I have to agree with Richard Russel's recent comment that he sees the DOW and gold ratio crossing at $3,000. I see this as a very big possibility especially viewing the differences between now and the late 60s/early 70s. Especially now that there is such a large gold short, huge derivitive position by several of the major banks and an enormous national debt that spell monetary and price inflationion the pipeline!

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 11:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89302)
Question to the T. C. --- <;-)
Having only a FEW thing to do -- I was looking at the picture that you posted in message # 89300 !!
IF my eyes do not deceive me -- that "Chest" could not begin to support or hold those contents UNLESS it is made totally of "Kryptonite" !! At the least the LOCK is two to three inches wide and the chest must be 12" x 24" x12" in size !! THEREFORE the contents would weigh OVER ONE TON !!
and one would need a FORKLIFT to move it !
Please tell me that I am DREAMING !!
<;-)

RobotGuy (11/11/02; 11:31:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 89301)
Gandalf, your unending enthusiasm is one very big reason why this forum is so successful.
Thank-you for all of your hard work.

Thank-you Centennial precious metals for your constant sacrafices, and inspiration. I don't know how many people travel through these pages on a daily basis, but I do know the number will be ever inreasing.

Cheers!

RobotGuy.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/11/02; 11:18:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89300)
Gold: Power, Security, Independence... Freedom.
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

"For as long as cannons have thundered,
they have echoed
with the sound of men yearning for gold."

-- R. Strauss

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 11:13:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89299)
NICE JOB Sir Nuebie and Sir RobotGuy !!
THREE SECONDS apart -- AND you filled the gaps !
<;-)

Neubie (11/11/02; 11:06:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89298)
$$$$324.1$$$$
As has been stated by many posters, their is a significant difference in the financial environment between the 60's and now. However the reasons to hold gold are still the same, long term peace of mind. Gold, I'll keep mine!

RobotGuy (11/11/02; 11:06:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 89297)
$$$$324.3$$$$
Unfortunately I was not around to experience the marvelous 60's, but many things happened that I would have loved to have been a part of. Gold at $35 an ounce would have been a real steal here in Canada. By doing a quick little bit of research, I learned that the exchange rate was much closer for Canadians in the late 60's comparatively. Today exchange is roughly 1.56 Canadian dollars for one U.S. dollar compared to 1.06 approx. in the late sixties.
I can assure you that the price of gold in Canadian dollars now is more than ten times what it was in the late sixties, considering exchange differences, however the average household income has not multiplied by that factor as I'm sure you'll all agree.
Less people were considered poor, there were lower averages for personal debt, and more people were employed.

Gold was a steal at $35 dollars an ounce in the 60's. Guess what we'll be saying ten years from now.

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

canamami (11/11/02; 10:46:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 89295)
Gandalf: You caught me good!!!

eom

TownCrier (11/11/02; 10:28:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89294)
Attention: Veterans and servicemen...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html
Did you know that USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals offers special pricing on gold orders just for you?

They do!

It is MK's way of showing his appreciation for the service that YOU provide.

You have a friend in USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. Call today for a consultation on your order and enjoy the benefits of professional friendship and gratitude.

R.

goldquest (11/11/02; 10:23:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 89293)
$$$$324.90$$$$
In 1968, I was just completing my second tour as an active participant in the unpopular, "Southeast Asian War Games." About this same time,the first piece of gold I ever owned was in the form of a gold tooth, complements of the U S Army.
Curious as to what gold was doing in the 1960's, I found that in the early 60's, the US $35=1oz ratio was becoming difficult to sustain. Gold demand was rising, US reserves were falling. At the suggestion of US undersecretary of the Treasury, Robert Roosa, the US and eight European central banks formed the London Gold Pool to try and control the price of gold. The London Gold Pool collapsed in April of 1968 when DeGaulle of France insisted on receiving gold in exchange for US greenbacks. From the late 1960's, gold started a climb, with a few setbacks on the way, to it's $800+ peak a few years later. Our host has an excellent chart showing this gold run. It can be found at, http://www.usagold.com/newsviews.html Click on the May 2001 link.
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at$35.an ounce in the very late 1960's?"
YES! They lost control back then and they are losing control now. Just as DeGaulle caused the unraveling in the 60's, any number of things,Euro,war,terrorism,etc., will cause gold to skyrocket at anytime.

Shanti (11/11/02; 10:22:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89292)
$$$$323.30$$$$
Dear Gandalf,
Thanks for the 2nd chance ! But anyway i confess i'am late and leave it up to the esteemed winner....

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 10:19:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 89291)
WELCOME Sir Houston !!!
Houston (11/11/02; 10:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89290)
==
Sir Houston, "we have NOT a problem" with your Semester of USAGOLD Forum required reading ! It is at least a FIVE CREDIT course that sticks with one FOR LIFE !!
Thanks !
<;-)

Houston (11/11/02; 10:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89290)
(No Subject)
$$$$332.0$$$$ That is my "kick at the cat" guess.
Is buying gold now like buying it at $35 an ounce in the late 1960's?

The major difference is bullion gold buying was illegal then vs now. All of it has been said on USAGold already: i.e. creditor nation vs debtor nation; saving vs spending; few to no bubbles then vs potential epidemic bubbles everywhere now. The only negative difference was then we are actively in Vietnam where now we are preparing for another Vietnam in Iraq and eventually the Middle East. We don't have peace in the world we have "controlled" rage.

I'm currently maxed out in physical gold and silver as far as my budget will allow. I await the gold equity shares to rocket after $330 is reached. When gold is between $450-600 I will begin cashing out of my gold shares and buy into more physical.

If I could only convince my parents into converting paper CDs into physical. Anybody run across a good article addressing that subject?

I particularly like this forum for its minimal individual personal attacks vs other gold sites. My hat is off to you professional knights and ladies! I think a minimum of a semester of reading USAgold forum should be required reading for economic, financial, political and current events for students taking related college courses. What a profound effect that would have!!

otish mountain (11/11/02; 10:10:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 89289)
$$$$324.0$$$$
In some ways buying gold today is the same as when gold was $35./oz. except more important now to protect ones self than in the late 60's.

Today we live in a world of extreme debt, the credit bubble should be called the debt bubble. This debt will not be repaid unless there is inflation. We here know gold will survive this coming financial meltdown.

otish

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 10:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89288)
POG CONTEST ! Tick tock, Tick tock, Tick tock, Tick tock!!
GUESSES are SOLID from $319.1 though $323.9 !!!!
ONLY less than 120 Minutes to Go !!
GUESS HIGH or guess low -- But hurry and enter !
The Winning number will be known TOMORROW at the COB on the COMEX !!

makcumka (11/11/02; 09:59:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 89287)
$$$$ 323.5 $$$$
buying gold now is different than in the 60s because now, from my perspective, the majority of the people in the US are oblivious to what the war or the depression can do to them. In the 60s there were a lot of people who experienced the depression, a number of families whose members fought in the 2nd World War and Vietnam. They had a better understanding of real values in life. For the society of today, who live in debt and watch the war on CNN, the couch and a bag of potato chips is comfort, and ability to borrow is financial security. Gold is cheap.

jlfletc (11/11/02; 09:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89286)
$$$$323.0$$$$$
I don't think that buying gold at $35 in the 60s was like buying gold at $3xx.xx today, because unlike the 60s, gold is no longer price controlled, unless you count the obvious manipulation. Factoring in inflation, and supply, it's a much better bargain at these prices.

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 09:53:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 89285)
usagold.com msg#: 89283)
Waverider (11/11/02; 09:47:47MT
Veterans Day and Remembrance Day
==
Thank you Lady Waverider !!
I could not say it better.
GW

Waverider (11/11/02; 09:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89284)
Goldenboy
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/html/datapage.htm
You will find historical economic data at the attached link - it's quite fun! For instance,

M3 1969.12 615.937
2002.09 8331.986

Cheers,
Waverider

Waverider (11/11/02; 09:47:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 89283)
Veterans Day and Remembrance Day
In honor of all veterans here and those who lurk, to those whom we know and whom we will never know, and to those who have died for our countries...yes, we thank you!

In Flanders Fields

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly

Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

John McCrae (1872-1918)

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 09:44:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89282)
$$$$$319.30$$$$$$ Taken !!
canamami (11/11/02; 09:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89279)
$$$$$319.30$$$$$$
===
I got ya Sir Canamami !!
Thanks
<;-)

Paper Avalanche (11/11/02; 09:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 89281)
For the record, I'm no technical analyst BUT
it appears that TPTB had every intention of making this a $4, $5 or $6 down day for POG (noting the severity of the downward spikes) and only have been able to knock it a little below $320/oz. for brief periods of time.

Something is afoot IMHO.

PA

canamami (11/11/02; 09:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89279)
$$$$$319.30$$$$$$
The answer to the question is: I don't know.

Unlike the 1960's, there is now no US law against owning gold privately. Also, the current gold price as expressed in the Comex, etc., no longer reflects an official price peg to the US currency. In addition, gold no longer constitutes the legal basis of the international currency regime, either directly or indirectly. the currency restricttions which exsited in the 1960's no longer exist, at least to the degree they once did.

Contrariwise, the world is now primed for a major paradigm shift. THe US dollar and the US itself will be facing major challenges in the next few years. Heightening international and cultural tensions may give rise to politically-based currency controls. Hence, there is a serious possibility that gold may reassert its role as the "honest broker" among competing currencies and as the ultimate international currency. This could give rise to a major revaluation of gold in US dollar terms, as in the 1960's.

Sierra Madre (11/11/02; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 89278)
Hipplebeck: on how to support the dollar
It's interesting that you should ask the question; very few Americans (perhaps you are American?) ever think of anything as outlandish as "supporting the dollar". So many Americans just take it for granted that the dollar is the best money, in fact, remember when Americans used to go abroad and ask puzzled Frenchmen: "How much is that in REAL money?"

Classic ways of supporting a currency when you are the finance minister of an underdog country:

1. Raise interest rates, to keep foreigners buying your currency, in order to take advantage of the higher rates you offer. That's many times, just "hot money" that will take off all at once, like swallows, at the very first sign of alarm. Then, you have an abrupt devaluation on your hands. But, the first thing to do, is keep money at home, so you raise interest rates.
2. You can try exchange controls. You would not allow Americans to buy foreign currencies without a "permit". If you run a business, you'd have to have some clearance for payments. This brings the "black market" to life.
3. You can impose restrictions on imports, such as high tariffs, to discourage your people from buying things abroad and having to sell your dollars to buy the foreign currency to pay for the imports. Americans could start by imposing a 50% tax on imported cars. (It is possible to live without MB's, BMW�s, Toyotas, Lexus, etc etc)
4. You can forbid the importation of certain goods - "luxury" goods.
5. You can grant special treatment to exporters. Of course, if you grant them subsidies out of tax dollars, you are sort of defeating your purpose. But politically, it works pretty well - Americans see their goods going abroad, and think it helps support the dollar. Of course, how to get manufacturing going in the USA, to earn foreign exchange, now that the USA has "globalized" itself by sending so much manufacturing abroad, poses a big problem. You'd have to throw "globalization" out the window and turn to "nationalism".
6. What you cannot do, is sell foreign currencies to bring them down, because you haven't got them! Britain lost a bundle back in '92, trying to support the pound. Soros made a bundle.

Actually, once you have to think about "supporting" the dollar, it is really too late! Should have thought about old age, when you were thirty or forty, not at 55!

Sierra

Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 09:37:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89277)
ATTENTION Sir Shanti !!! Previously TAKEN Guess !!!
Shanti (11/11/02; 09:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89274)
$$$$323.30$$$$
---
You were beaten by just a couple minutes !!
Please try again !
<;-)

Trapper (11/11/02; 09:22:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89276)
Sir Kludge
I often wonder when at 3:00 in the morning and reach for a pain pill, and the morphine will help get some sleep from the pain of the broken bones that the bullet caused as it crushed through my ankle. And when the temprature is 90 dergees out side and I pass over a nice pair of shorts just to put my jeans to wear outside because I'm tired of mothers coming up to me and complaing that the scares left from where the shrapnel ripperd out my muscles and flesh upset their kids. And when I try to find a pair of gloves that I can easily cut and sew up so it fit the missing finger. Thank you for your concern and you are welcome, just call me if can help out again. Live small.
RJ

goldenboy (11/11/02; 09:14:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89275)
****** $$$$$320.10$$$$$********
Just back from Myrtle Beach, notice golf packages are cheaper this year, anyway as to why gold current prices is different than $335 gold in the 60`s:

****** I bought gold in the late 60`s and it was different than today although potentially as or more rewarding. The first major difference is that gold had been officially controlled or pegged at virtually the same price for over 30 years. Accordingly, it took greater faith to believe that a price change was possible and or likely. The fact that gold was exchangeable at some level until Nixon closed the window helped make it seem more likely a change would occur.
Secondly, inflation had reared its ugly head to a larger degree than today, or at least it seemed that way, as we had enjoyed price stability for so long.

Today, we have had 30 years of gold free floating all over the map. The difference being that in the 60`s it is for sure that it was either an up or sideways investment. Also inflation is different in that we are getting asset inflation but not cost push so much due to imports neutering labour and pricing power.
As to price and opportunity, math tells you $35 gold was a 20 + banger in the 60`s, so you need over $6400 to compare. Is that reasonable? Well, if we look at other goods and go market high to anticipated market high, we have to compare 1980 to today. On a financial assets basis, the Dow was about a 10-fold increase, housing about 3-4 fold depending on where you live and less for cost of living.Wish I had M-3 data for additional comparisons.
Conclusion: The 60`s were likely the better opportunity, but this is probably the best opportunity (save for last year) since then; and who would really be disappointed with a 300% - 1000% increase anyway?
Conclusion; 60`s were better,

Shanti (11/11/02; 09:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89274)
$$$$323.30$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

To me, sec to the figures, it's NO. But if i look deeper into it, it's gona be even worse,

1) a differend period of time-spirit
2) a more (un)develloped culture
3) a medium what speeds up things with lightspeed "the internet"
4) a fiat system out of ballance
5) a manipulation of figures

I trully hope the manipulators keep holding it in hand until all air has gone out of the figures, (have lots of doubts on that) But its need to be positive and will keep trust with Gold.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti

Wky_Woodsman (11/11/02; 09:10:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89273)
Correction
Make that my fellow veterans. The eyesight isn't what it used to be.

Wky_Woodsman (11/11/02; 09:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 89272)
Veterans Day
To all my follow veterans who have served our country I thank you for your service, and I salute you.

Wky

Wky_Woodsman (11/11/02; 09:03:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89271)
Contest
$$$$323.3$$$$

Gold today is, just as gold in the late sixties simply was gold. In the late sixties, I received as a wedding present from my Dad: a Double Eagle, an Eagle, a half eagle and a quarter eagle, pre-1933. Those precious coins were all the gold that anyone in my immediate family(all wage earners) had ever held in their hands. Today we have so much more opportunity to hold a larger quantity of gold in the form of bullion, than in the numismatic form. What a great opportunity at these prices! Yet as most here have related, so few will even acknowledge that gold is valuable.

In a paper world of deceit and illusion, remember that GOLDistruth!

Genoo (11/11/02; 08:58:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89270)
$$$319.60$$$
The answer to the question posed is yes and no. Buying Gold now is equivelant to buying gold at $35 in the sixties in that the lid on the gold price is about to blow off resulting in a many-fold increase in the price, just like what happened some three decades ago. At the same time, in the sixties, there was no fear of a global deflation/deprssion scenario as there surely is today.

Paper Avalanche (11/11/02; 08:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89269)
POG today
The chart on Kitco looks like a clash of the titans.

Gimli_ (11/11/02; 08:12:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89268)
$$$$ 322.6 $$$$
"Is buying Gold now like buying it at $35.00 in the late 1960?"

YES in terms of inflation adjusted dollars, but NO in terms of potential collapse of the US$ which would obviously make physical gold cost many times more dollars.

IF the USA's attempts under the caption "War of Terrorism" does not succeed in keeping the trade of oil pegged to the US$ around $30, then inflation will return as it did in the 70s. Gold will spike and then settle at a higher inflation adjusted price.

IF the US suffers some military/political catastrophe that causes oil trade to decouple from the US$ (for any number of causes as have been detailed by others on this forum), then a total dollar collapse (like what happened in Russia after the Berlin Wall came down) could result. Gold would then surge much higher and remain a store of real wealth in whatever newly (or even totally new) valued currency replaces the current US$.

If the USA does succeed in solving all the economic, political, and millitary problems in the present world, then gold will at least be worth what it costs now--so you can't really lose anything (unless the government takes it). ;-0)

Hipplebeck (11/11/02; 07:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 89267)
forex
I've asked this before, and I don't know how to find out the answer, so maybe someone can help.
If the US wants to support the dollar, how do they do it?
I know that the Japanese sell yen and buy dollars in their intervention in the forex markets, but they are trying to lower the value of yen. If they wanted to support the yen, then they would sell dollars and buy yen. They are known to have dollar reserves. It would seem that the US would at some time in the future need to support the dollar if the imbalances in the current account area ever begin to rebalance. How would they do this? Is there a vault full of euros and yen somewhere, or would they have to sell gold?

kludge (11/11/02; 07:03:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89266)
Veteran's Day
To any US Veterans that may be posters or lurkers here, and especially to those that "aren't here":

We Remember - THANK YOU.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 05:57:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 89265)
Oil Rises as U.S. Warns Iraq
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_oil_2.html

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday as the United States warned Iraq that one false move in complying with the United Nations resolution on weapons inspections would lead to a military strike against the Middle East oil power. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures in London rose 57 cents to $24.15 a barrel, while U.S. light crude gained 47 cents to $26.25, building on Friday's gains. U.S. National Security adviser Condoleezza Rice said on Sunday Iraq would be held to a "zero tolerance" standard on arms inspections under a new U.N. resolution approved last Friday, with any breach triggering "serious consequences." U.S. officials also said President Bush had approved plans involving 200,000 troops for the invasion of Iraq if it failed to comply. "Prices are up on the fairly hawkish talk over the weekend -- the spectre of war is starting to loom larger again," said analyst Steve Turner of Commerzbank.

Black Blade: Four more days to accept the resolutions. Even then it is very likely that the inspectors will be turned back at some sites.

Blackjack (11/11/02; 05:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 89264)
Credit Report
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=17279
Recent "debate" is increasingly reminiscent of the late 1920s and early 1930s, to the point of being eerie.� Regrettably, the earlier wrangling about prices, markets, and monetary management was anything but satisfactorily resolved.�

In the end, the Monetarists won and history (and curriculums) was revised to blame the Depression on a shortage of money and liquidity.� They got it absolutely wrong.� Amazingly, virtually no one is today willing to admit that Federal Reserve policy has been an unmitigated disaster, with the meter still running (time and a half for overtime!).� What we have today is so far removed from sound money, with the lunatics directing the governors of the asylum to pump in only stronger laughing gas.�
�
There is today an overwhelming consensus that there are no costs associated with Fed rate cuts, thus every reason to aggressively cut to the bare bones and quickly.� While our central bankers were determined to avoid learning lessons from the Japanese Bubble experience, they do appreciate that it is expedient to "learn" from their dismal post-Bubble struggle � the key is to move early and move aggressively.� But the Fed is only feeding the gluttonous financial sphere to death.
�
The big problem we have with all of this is that our analysis convinces us that this is precisely the recipe that led to a hopelessly deranged financial sphere that was resolved with the 1930s financial collapse and Depression. It is my view that the post 9/11 aggressive rate cuts (and consequent blow-off in mortgage finance and Credit market speculative excess) were an even greater mistake than the post-Russia/LTCM cuts and "reliquefication" that fueled the fateful technology/stock market speculative blow-off.�

And, amazingly, no one will step up and admit we have set course for financial disaster.� Sure, ultra-easy money stimulated unprecedented household borrowings, with a spike in home and auto sales.� We will now pay the price for artificially inflating housing and auto demand.�

It was absolutely irresponsible monetary policy to actively stimulate consumer over-borrowing and spending in this manner � a desperate attempt to Sustain Unsustainable boom-time demand.� It's been little more than a dangerous monetary gamble with great risk and NO possibility for success.�

Black Blade (11/11/02; 05:05:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89263)
Dollar Hits Fresh Lows
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_forex_2.html

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar racked up another series of multi-month lows against major currencies on Monday, as U.S. economic worries and prospects for a U.S. war with Iraq outweighed the growing risk of Japanese dollar-buying intervention. The dollar slid to three-month lows versus the euro and two-month lows against the yen, ignoring warnings by top Japanese financial diplomat Haruhiko Kuroda the yen's rise was inappropriate. "We're seeing broad based dollar weakness and the break of key technical levels is opening the way for a further move lower," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas. "There's no specific news today but concerns over the U.S. economic outlook have increased following the Fed's move last week."

Black Blade: Well now, this is interesting. Of course the USD probably should be in the 80 to 90 range. We will have to see how this turns out now that the ECB and BOE decided not to lower interest rates and foreign investments return home for the higher rate of return.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 04:26:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89262)
Russian central bank issues new gold, silver coins
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=34271330&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&

Snippit:

Moscow, 11 November: The Central Bank of Russia today put into circulation the gold coin with the denomination of 25 roubles and the silver coin with the denomination of 2 roubles in the "Signs of the Zodiac" series, with the image of Sagittarius depicted on both coins, the bank's external and public relations department reported on Tuesday [as received]. The gold coin, with gold mass content of 3.11 g, is hallmarked 999, and the silver coin, with silver mass content 15.55 g, is hallmarked 925.

Black Blade: Another alternative for Russian goldbugs.

Boilermaker (11/11/02; 04:01:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 89261)
$$$$$ 322.3 $$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

Yes and no for the many reasons already offered. My favorites; Yes because we have gold selling below replacement cost (at least for many marginal producers) and we've had years of inventory liquidation (above and below ground) by CB's and producers to suppress the price. No because we now have much greater leverage applied through derivitives that will cause near instantaneous meltup.

I might add that silver may have an even more compelling price outlook if you consider that its price ratio, current to 1960's, is only 3.5 whereas gold has risen by a factor of 9.1

Good luck to all

Boilermaker

Black Blade (11/11/02; 02:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89260)
Derivatives growing rapidly
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/021111/1035873163866_1.html

Snippit:

The derivatives market continues to grow at a rapid pace according to the latest research by the Bank for International Settlements, led by the strong demand for interest-rate hedging products. Derivatives is one of the few areas of the financial markets currently enjoying good health, and most bankers in the industry are expecting large bonuses this year while many of their equity and bond market colleagues face sweeping redundancies. The BIS says the total outstanding size of the over-the-counter derivatives market stood at almost $128,000bn at the end of June in terms of notional value. This is an increase of 15 per cent from the size of the market at the end of 2001. The market expansion was largely driven by a 16 per cent rise in the volume of interest rate derivatives, the largest segment of the OTC market. Outstanding interest rate products totalled $90,000bn at the end of the first half, compared with $67,500bn a year earlier

Black Blade: The maddening pace is picking up as bankers frantically paper over the markets. Looks like they are losing their grip on reality and pursue fantasy. This is going beyond crazy � it's insane!

Black Blade (11/11/02; 02:03:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89259)
Stocks Seen Settling, Eyes on Consumer
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021110/column_stocks_outlook_2.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are poised to fall this week on the heels of the first down week for the broad market in more than a month, though key consumer spending numbers may end up steering the market's direction as investors fret about where the sputtering economy is headed. With corporate earnings season winding down and a strong run-up in stocks behind them, investors are looking to take a breather, experts said. "The market got a little bit overdone and then settled down and I think we might see a little bit more of that in the next couple of days," said Frank Gretz, market analyst and technician at New York brokerage Shields & Co.

Still, the market will certainly be taking cues this week from a Wednesday speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and any news that could signal an impending U.S. military strike on Iraq. Economic data will also be center stage, most notably the October retail sales figures due Thursday, which are expected to rise. A Reuters survey put the month-on-month increase at 0.2 percent, excluding car sales, or flat with autos included. Another key figure for the market, the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence, is due on Friday. A Reuters poll put the preliminary November index at 81.3, up from 80.6 for October.

Black Blade: The economic data is simply "grizzly" and the outlook is grim. Instead of focusing on retail sales improving from the prior week, they should look how it compares to last year as sales will likely improve going into the holiday season. It is expected that sales will be pathetic compared to last year as consumers are pulling in their horns as layoffs continue and the outlook is not very good.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 01:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 89258)
Stocks, Dollar Slide as Iraq Mulls Reply
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_asia_4.html

Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares tumbled on Monday, losing up to three percent in Tokyo, South Korea and Taiwan, as poor Japanese economic data, a weaker U.S. dollar and concern over a U.S. confrontation with Iraq shook investor confidence. Fears a new U.N. resolution on Iraq weapons inspections could lead to war helped send the dollar to a two-month low against the yen and fueled fresh gains in oil prices.

Black Blade: World markets are taking a beating this morning. I see that Iraqi foreign minister Taraq Aziz is making noise about the UN sanctions and thumbing his nose at the U.S. again. I talked to friend last night and he tells me that his brother and a couple of our friends have been "called up" for military service. Should get "interesting".

Belgian (11/11/02; 01:43:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 89257)
RE:
@ Liberty Head # 89249: Yes, Sir...
***IF*** if,if,if, the occupation of Iraq (regime change) happens without significant counter-shocks, and the POO comes down substantially (10$/15$) for a prolonged period (6 months), than POG might (!!!) come down for reasons of dollar-strength. But I very strongly doubt that it will /can be "significant" !
Supposing that the "military" operation will be succesful is as far as I dare to go. The aftermath will be a disaster.

@Downunder #89230 : IMF/CFR - Global financial meltdown :
No Sir, haven't seen these figures or scenarios.
But this meltdown is simply a crashing of the US$ exchange rate and I think that Euroland doesn't want it to happen, YET !? As I don't see the advantage (for the time being) of having the �/$ exchange rate going from present parity to the suggested 1,20 (Bloomberg). We are all still trying to avoid the global economic collapse and still hoping that a soft (hum) landing (crash) is a possibility. That's why the military operation in the ME, "MUST" be succesful ! Politically it is a guarantee for disaster.
Dollar-Panic is to be avoided for the benifit of us all.
POG-Gap will signal when the total collapse is knocking on the door.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 01:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 89256)
Japan Ready to Intervene as Dollar Weakens Vs Yen
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_forex_intervention_1.html

Snippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese monetary authorities are expected to step into the currency market soon to try to lift the dollar against the yen so as to help protect Japanese exports, dealers and analysts say. They worry that a stronger yen could choke off growth in what have been the main factor leading Japan's economic recovery. Dealers said the outlook for the dollar was increasingly bearish due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's surprising half-point rate cut last Wednesday, tensions surrounding Iraq and volatility in the U.S. equity market. "The authorities seem to be seeking the best time now to intervene, as they do not want to do it in vain," said Tomoko Fujii, an economist at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney.

Black Blade: So go the currency wars. Talk about being "caught between a rock and a hard place", the Japanese want to lower the yen for their export driven economy and yet the American consumer is tapped out. Everyone is in the same boat.

Sierra Madre (11/11/02; 01:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89255)
Liberty Head: will control of M.E. oil allow the US to keep gold down?

I have myself felt this same nagging doubt, and have spoken about it on this Forum. However, reviewing this doubt again at this late hour, I reflect as follows:

The U.S. is faced with several simultaneous enormous problems. I list some - perhaps I do not list all:

1. Enormous foreign debt
2. Persistent and gigantic fiscal deficits.
3. Persistent and gigantic trade and commercial account deficits with the rest of the world.
4. A rapidly increasing M3 and its components, M1 and M2
5. Enormous - one runs out of adjectives for "bigness"!- internal debt: corporate, state, personal.
6. A consumer which is heavily in debt and is reported to be just about maxed out.
7. A huge housing bubble, about to pop.
8. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac indebtedness now rivals that of the whole Federal Government.
9. A stock market which is still vastly overvalued.
10.No sign of improving profitabiity for companies.
11.Persistent lay-offs (rising unemployment)
12.A war at the doorstep, which will exacerbate fiscal imbalances, spending of money created out of nothing to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, maybe hundreds.

Will control of oil correct or alleviate these problems? Oil is certainly extremely important, but the mismanagement of finance and money and the malinvestment it has promoted for at least a decade - can oil counterbalance excessive debt and debauching the currency?

I doubt it. A speedy victory in Iraq (and in war, nothing is entirely certain, no matter that the leaders of the U.S. seem to have in mind a kind of "computer game war", where everything is done on a screen and the player doesn't ever get hurt) a speedy victory in Iraq MIGHT lower the price of gold for a few weeks (a buying opportunity!) but can scarcely hold it down against all the fundamentals that are so much against the U.S. dollar.

If you have gold, sleep well. You have done all you can do!

Sierra

Black Blade (11/11/02; 01:24:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89254)
Market Index Futures Lower
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

The US market futures point to a lower opening, oil is higher, the USD is very weakly higher, and gold is off about a dollar. Looks like a lot of "entertainment" on tap for today.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (11/11/02; 01:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89253)
Asian Markets Get Hammered
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Asian markets got creamed in overnight trade. Euro markets look to thrashed at the open as well. There is no real reason for the markets to move into positive territory now. The global economy is sick and on life support. Note that the U.S. dollar is on shakey ground too. It should get "interesting" this week.

- Black Blade

Blackjack (11/11/02; 00:48:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 89252)
Found an ETF for Gold
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=XGD.TO&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l
Barclays has an ETF for Gold
iShares
XGD
It trades on Toronto exchange XGD.to for those in US.
Link above for Yahoo quote.

Black Blade (11/11/02; 00:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89251)
Richard Russell Takes Off The Gloves
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp?guid={14AD2C24-DD46-41A6-AB17-4F1B70739D69}

Snippit:

Thursday, after gold started strong and was driven back below $320 an ounce, Russell took of the gloves: "It's obvious that someone, some group, somebody, does NOT want gold above 320. Who the hell are they? Is it the Fed that wants to cover up its frantic attempts to reinflate? Is it the gold-mining companies that are still hedged and therefore don't want gold to rise until they can get rid of the hedges? Is it the Commercials who are net short? Just who are they?"

But Russell takes the long view -- maybe that's the advantage of age: "Look, I believe gold and gold shares are in the early accumulation phase of a bull market... [I] tell subscribers, 'Use this area to accumulate whatever gold and whatever gold shares you want to hold. Take this obvious gold manipulation as a chance to buy gold at what I consider dirt cheap levels.'" Russell's long-standing view: all such attempts to control market forces fail. Eventually.

Commenting on Friday's action, Russell wrote: "Gold now on a 'buy' signal, being well above its 50-day M[oving] A[verage]. Nevertheless, the resistance to gold moving higher is incredible. You can almost feel it." Actually, it didn't take much "feeling." The end of the week saw a huge COMEX volume spike, with kamikaze sellers crashing onto buyers, so that, after a lot of smoke and flame, the actual price barely moved. One persistent rumor is that major banks, notably JP Morgan Chase, are in trouble with their gold derivatives positions, and that their death throes are bloodying the waters.

Black Blade: That's the persistent rumor that I keep hearing too. It is always that some bank � notably JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs that enters into the market to sell down gold on a rally.

Waverider (11/11/02; 00:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 89250)
***** $320.40 *****
Is buying Gold now like buying it at $35.00 in the late 1960?

In some ways yes, as there is also the potential for appreciation as was the case when purchased in the late 60s, but for different reasons (derivatives, hedging, debt, etc, etc,). What makes it different today are two things - the benefits of ownership will be more pronounced when economically the proverbial SHTF, and the collegiality of ownership - the internet has provided a median where like-minded individuals may conglomerate, share information, ideas, and learn.

Liberty Head (11/11/02; 00:21:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 89249)
Gold vs Oil

Greetings one and all,

I have this nagging bearish thought about gold.

If the U.S. were to "find" a vast quantity of oil, equivalent, say, to all the oil in Iraq, wouldn't that put a significant downward pressure on the POG?

Can anyone here help me exorcize my bearish demons?

Thank You

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