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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/11/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Netking (11/11/01; 23:56:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 65150) PM's Gold up $0.90 . . . Silver $0.06. . . "There is some life there Jim, but not as we know it". Black Blade (11/11/01; 23:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 65149) Saudi, Venezuela, Mexico Agree to Cut Oil Production http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO_6zcxWFU2F1ZGks Snippit:Riyadh, Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico, three of the biggest oil suppliers to the U.S., will cut production this week to remove a glut and boost prices, hovering near two-year lows, the official Saudi news agency reported. The three oil-rich nations ``agreed on the need to take the necessary measures in the coming days to cut the current output surplus,'' officials of the three nations said in a statement. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his counterparts from South America, Mexico's Ernesto Martens Rebolledo and Venezuela's Alvaro Silva Calderon, delivered the statement after meeting in Madrid, the official SPA reported. Mexico, which isn't a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, joins non-OPEC oil producer Russia in reversing its opposition to cooperating with OPEC in its efforts to reduce excess oil supplies from the market and boost prices that have fallen close to 30 percent over the last two months.Black Blade: This is big news as these three oil producers are the main suppliers of imported US oil. This will nip any US economic recovery in the bud. POO should look interesting especially when OPEC meets this week. Black Blade (11/11/01; 23:15:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 65148) Taliban Said to Suffer Major Setback http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011111/ts/attack_dc_740.html Snippit:KABUL/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The war over Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) and his al Qaeda network appeared to have swung sharply in favor of the U.S.-led coalition on Sunday after Afghan rebels claimed to have captured a vast swathe of territory and to have crippled the ruling Taliban's fighting force. The opposition Northern Alliance said the cream of the Taliban army had been wiped out in a string of surprise defeats and it refused to rule out an advance on Kabul, injecting new urgency into the search for a post-Taliban government.In Mazar-i-Sharif on Sunday, Afghans lined up at barber shops to shave their once-mandatory beards; forbidden music blared from shops and some women threw off the head-to-toe burqa veil as the city emerged from the draconian lifestyle under the Taliban, the Afghan Islamic Press said.Black Blade: It's Party Time in Afghanistan! Have a round of brew, some pork BBQ, get down - throw off the burqas and shake some booty! Now the Northern Alliance says they are moving on Kabul today. Mr Gresham (11/11/01; 23:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65147) Noland http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm Black Blade: Good, you got Puplava in. I don't remember seeing this one from Friday linked yet. Black Blade (11/11/01; 22:30:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65146) Global Oil Supply Uncertainty Raises Interest in American Oil Producers http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/011109/daf039_1.html Snippit:In an ABC News report October 22, 2001, the network quoted Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Pfiefer as stating, ``It is quite feasible that we could see prices rise if conditions overseas escalate in some form,'' adding that Pfeifer and several other analysts are predicting higher oil prices similar to what the U.S. experienced during the 1970s when restrained production from OPEC and military and political volatility in the Middle East led to skyrocketing oil prices and fuel costs.Heightening fears of a diminished oil supply are U.S. government suggestions that the ``War on Terrorism'' could extend to other nations beyond Afghanistan, some of which may be OPEC nations or allies of OPEC countries. The effect of such action could ``abruptly change'' the output from OPEC according to the ABC report. OPEC meets again in Vienna on November 14, 2001. Moreover, ABC states that U.S. ally Saudi Arabia produces more than double the oil production of the rest of the world combined and as a potential target of exiled Saudi Osama Bin Laden, a ``nightmare scenario'' would be a successful attack on that oil supply or its distributing ports.Black Blade: A scenario that I suggested several days ago. The threat to global oil supply remains and there is the very real possibility of an unfriendly succession in the Saudi Royal family or even an Islamic Fundamentalists revolution to overthrow the House of Saud. "Interesting Times" Black Blade (11/11/01; 21:52:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65145) A Penny Less - A Penny More http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm Another good synopsis of the "earnings game" as played by the Pimps of Wall Street by Jim Puplava. Much of this has been discussed here before but this is a good run down on the Pimps trickery that is employed to sucker the dim investors. A good read before the markets open in the morning.- Black Blade EagleOne (11/11/01; 21:14:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 65144) Help for Pandagold - Message 65132 et al Pandagold came to me for psychiatric help, but after 45 minutes, during which time he did all the talking, he became convinced that I was an agent of the Bush family out to get his 3 silver dollars and his 1991 Volvo. We have concluded there is no hope for this patient.Fredric Von Noodlefixer, MD, PHD, PE, and RE Waverider (11/11/01; 21:12:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65143) Fears grow concerning Japanese banks http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3NSUS8XTC&live=true&tagid=FTDO9DHMZJC Snippit: "The health of Japan's banking sector is poised to trigger fresh unease among investors this week following the worst post-war performance in the world's second largest economy. Bank difficulties were highlighted on Sunday by Asahi, which sought to reassure investors that it had a viable strategy for improving its finances. Having seen its shares at one point on Thursday fall to a year low, it has now announced plans to sell about Y200bn ($1.65bn) of bad loans - a quarter of its total - to Goldman Sachs. The banking sector's average share price tumbled to a 17-year low last week, with significant declines at other banks such as Daiwa, UFJ and Mizuho. The recession in Japan is threatening to add to banks' bad loan problems. The government forecast on Friday that the economy would contract 0.9 per cent in the year to March. It remains unclear whether all the banks, which are due to report first-half results next week, have sufficient capital to take additional losses on their bad loans. As a result, some bureaucrats and government advisers are suggesting that the government will need to inject a further Y15,000bn to boost the banks' capital base, or even nationalise some weak groups. The government nationalised two big banks in 1998 and has injected almost Y8,000bn into the sector. "We need to start from scratch, look at the banks' balance sheets and be realistic about evaluating their assets - and that will end up with a capital shortage," said Yasuhisa Shiozaki, a leading pro-reform politician in the ruling Liberal Democratic party. "The banks are under-capitalised." However, the Financial Supervisory Agency, the main regulator, has denied there is any need for radical action. "If the banks vigorously make efforts, they will be able to clean up their balance sheets by the end of March 2002," said Hakuo Yanagisawa, FSA minister. The FSA is launching a new inspection of the banks' bad loans in an attempt to allay market unease. It is also urging the banks to raise additional capital themselves. In one such move, Mizuho, the largest banking group, has already said that it plans soon to issue high-yielding preferred stock, probably worth up to Y300bn. Toru Hashimoto, the bank's chairman, said in an interview he expected the new FSA inspection to force the bank to classify more of its loans as bad. But whether all banks have sufficient strength to raise funds themselves remains in question. Moreover, further falls in bank stocks this week could make that task much harder." Waverider (11/11/01; 20:46:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 65142) Thank you http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html Mr Gresham, Henri, BR549 and Canuck - thank you for your collective thoughts and wisdom. I look forward to the articles Canuck should you have a chance to dig them up - and thank you for your detailed explanations - they're very helpful. As per the words of President F.D. Rooselvelt in 1933,(#20. of attachment)it seems even the ownership of physical gold warrants discretion: "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed...and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." -another fine example of E/A in desperate times.Waverider tedw (11/11/01; 19:42:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65141) Mideast etc. Panda Gold. I mean no disrespect sir,but if you seriously beieve that the you would rather trust Saddam Hussein than President Bush, then you are seriously in need of psychiatric help. In nature, Saddam Hussein is a Psycopath,most closely resembling Adolph Hitler. As I watch developments unfolding,I cant help but see serious flaws in the US policy worldwide.Hamas,Islamic Jihad,The popular front for the liberation of Palestine are clearly objectively terrorist. Yet the states of Lebanon, Syria, and Iran are so disconnected from reality that they see these people as freedom fighters. The Bush administration appears to be walking a tightrope and has a policy of hypocrisy towards Isreals fight against terrorism for fear of offending "moderate" Arabs. What kind of war on terrorism is it when we ignore groups that strap on bombs, and detonate them in Isreali discoteques?I noticedColin Powell was more or less at a loss on these issues when he was confronted by US Senators at a recent appearance. After Afghanistan, does the Bush administration intend to go into Lebanon and clear out those nests of terrorists? I doubt it, and if they did what would be the reaction of the Saudis?I suppose it would be more accurate to say that we have an international war on terrorism as long as we dont take actions that offend certain Arabs whose oil we need. That doesnt sound much like a good policy to me. My prediction for the future is bleak. I dont believe mideast peace would result even if a Palestinian State were created. Isreals only hope for peace is to be so strong that no Arab nation will entertain the thought of invasion. I suggest there is enough hatred in the Mideast that nothing will satisfy certain elements but the destruction of Isreal. Repentenance, and a good heart are so far from these people that no amount of reason will prevail with them. I see a future where Isreal will continue to be attacked regardless of whether there is a Palestinian State or not.At some point, I expect the Arab Nation to again attack Isreal, then, in order to survive, Isreal will use Nuclear weapons to annihalte 50 million or so Arabs. Then you will have peace after a fashion in the middle east. And the war in Afghanistan may drag on for many years. Of course, I hope Im wrong. I hope they all wake up tommorrow with love in their hearts for their brothers, but the sad history of the human race does not make that very likely. Max Rabbitz (11/11/01; 19:25:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 65140) Mid-East A STRATEGIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS http://cryptome.org/alqaida-game.htm I think a good analysis of the dangers of this game. Like a chess game. How many moves ahead is the other side thinking? Lots at stake for Western Economies and potential power shift to Russian and China. Best to hold some gold in times like these. Mr Gresham (11/11/01; 19:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65139) goldfan Excellent summation. I'm sure we could work at it a bit, after re-reading Oro's best dissertations, and together with some Trail reading, be about a synthesis of the two, as well as a list of Open Questions.It's a lot of work to make my own Oro archive (as well as taking the FOA quotes out of the old discussion archives). About the best I can hope for timewise now is to make sure I just have it all safely stored on two harddrives. A long vacation somewhere to catch up on reading them, perhaps...?FOA has apologized for his writing abilities before, but I have not found them deficient in the ways that matter to me. He does not delineate the fact trails in the same ways Oro does, but in each successive post he does seem to go in and fill in something left unsaid before.His format as a public speaker seems to draw upon his personal experiences in the world of finance. The requirement of anonymity probably places restraints on the intermediate information he is able to provide, also. But if we do the detective work, that is another matter.FOA's conclusions are also the most radical presented in a financial forum, and by such a reasonable-sounding guy! They would be hard to "prove" with even a mountain of current data, so I can understand us only being provided with a general outline of the steps to his conclusions.Oro, on the other hand, leads us to conclusions contrary to the conventional economic wisdom (e.g., reasons for dollar strength in different periods), and so we get the idea of him perhaps as another "scout" on the trail looking out for our better interests?What a luxury to be able to try balancing the two, learning their varying reasons for gold's success, and then sit back (hah! as if!) and see which reasons turn out to be right, and to what extent. Pandagold (11/11/01; 18:56:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 65138) Max Rabbitz Bin Laden a la Hollywood Max Rabbitz: What we have is a mysterious video that has turned up in which he is supposed to claim responsibility.As I have just mentioned. it was reported some time ago that the US government was consulting with Hollywood for help.( no joke)Could it be they have come up with a virtual real Bin Laden?Most of those passengers in the movie Titanic were not realactors, nor were they cartoon characters. They would have fooled me.It's a simple process today. I know it sounds far fetched - beyond belief. But in Ian Flemmings's (James Bond) "From Russia with Love", they had a dog implanted with a listening device and given as a present to the Russian Leader (may not have the exact details correct). So the dog was present at some interesting discussions on which we eavesdropped.Far fetched? Well it appears that we did implant a cat which roamed around the Russian corridors of power and allowed us to listen in behind closed doors. It all ended when the cat got run over.There is the well known photo of Oswald with that rifle that even to non photograph experts like me looks like a mock-up.Hollywood studios would have no problem creating a bin Ladentape that would fool Bin Laden himself. On that I have no doubt. goldfan (11/11/01; 18:39:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65137) @Mr Gresham (msg#: 65030) Mr Gresham You kindly responded to my post on the impact ORO has had on me...you said...Maybe our "detective thriller" is to explore the areas of their disagreement with our own growing understanding and questioning?>>>>Here is my interpretation to date of the ORO/FOA debate. My apologies to both of these gentlemen for any errors of fact or interpretation of their words. 1. Concerning fiat affairs inside the power block in question:ORO is saying the economic blocks of Japan and Europe are operating with an outdated, preserve-the-powers-that-be mode of economic action and theory by governments and banks and large corporations. The US is somewhat ahead of these, by virtue of the fact that the big banks in the US hold only about 20% of financial assets, while the banks in the other two power blocks hold over 50%, and so are far less able to simply allow the inefficient corporations and institutions to fail when they have been economic failures. (O f course, to the extent that the US Fed rescues failing corporations and institutions by purchasing(monetizing) their debt or equity, they are just as incompetent as any other jurisdiction.) ORO's ideal is totally free markets, practically no government regulation in any sphere whatsoever. He believes the underlying forces that drive human interaction tend in this direction, no matter what the power structure of the moment tries to dictate. FOA on the other hand describes a European power structure bent on eliminating the current economic hegemony of the US dollar, and substituting for it an economic hegemony of the Euro. Some posters here, like Belgian, appear to believe the motives of the European government powers are quite benevolent, that is they wish to see more freedom and prosperity for their citizens. I don't know if FOA believes this. ORO clearly thinks they are simply as power hungry as governments throughout history have always been, and only throw bones of prosperity to citizens when citizens threaten to riot and do violence to those in power. Both ORO and FOA are advocates of buying physical gold. ORO believes the structure of the Euro/Gold markets-to-be described by FOA are completely crackpot, and will simply not work as intended or described. As I see it the disagreement between ORO and FOA boils down to this, ORO believes the power ploys of the EMU described by FOA are doomed to fail and produce even more economic distress for European citizens than will be experienced by US citizens. He also thinks the EMU power ploys are utterly immoral, but that is a sidebar, whether or not they are more or less immoral than what has been done by the US powers in the past or present, they are still doomed to fail. I think of it as like to a psychiatrist using the blunt crude instrument of electro shock to attempt to restore the distressed functioning of an incredibly complex, perhaps not ever wholly understandable or manageable, human brain. The patient may revive sufficiently to walk upright, and perform simple functions of daily life, but the possibility of reentering the vast green world of infinite creativity open to the pre-shock patient , is forever gone.2. The international fiat money arena.Japan attempting to stimulate its economy without allowing any of its incompetent large corporations or banks to fail, has flooded the world with 0% yen, which has been converted by arbitragers (carry-traders) into 5% US Treasury bills, and drawn forth a flood of US dollars to make the loans and pay the interest.( I know this is a simplification, there were a lot of other USD loans made through other than Treasury bills, to the rest of the world, but the principle is the same, and the effect is only to magnify the problems.) Meanwhile export prices and profits drop in world trading blocks outside the US desperate to earn the USD needed to pay interest. These same trading blocks maintain high prices at home, denying their citizens access to the same goods they sell to the US, in order to keep afloat their exporting corporations and banks. Treasury bills now form the principle reserves of European, Asian, South American CB's. Enormous asset inflation is still a prime feature of every major currency block. Even if the inevitable mismanagement of US economic affairs succeeds in creating increasing levels of inflation, those holding US Treasuries daren't sell them for the fire sale prices that will be all they can get in the crowded trade which will occur. Seems to me a mess whose outcome I cannot divine, except that it will cause a lot of hardship and suffering to people who have no idea what is going on, and who have put entirely unwarranted faith in liars and scumbags at all levels of government, corporations, and professors of economics, Nobel price winners though they may be.Seems to me the EMU cannot possibly substitute its holdings of USD Treasuries, for Euro Treasuries. First they have to find someone with enormous quantities of USD to buy the treasuries they hold, then they have to convert the USD to Euro, etc. Maybe the gold of the ECB will be an adequate reserve, if they can bring about the failure of the USD against gold, without at the same time, creating a failure of the Euro against gold. Nothing in my experience of history tells me these European men are smart enough to manage all this successfully. The Germans buried themselves twice in this past Century with stupid wars they could not win. And the French have not successfully managed to hold themselves together without outside help since the Battle of Waterloo, which was itself the inevitable result of a failed domination strategy by Napoleon, the only other man in history as stupid as Alexander the Great and Adolf Hitler.Furthermore, without a massive modern army, which exists nowhere outside the US, the Europeans nor anyone else, are going to maintain control of oil, and world trading routes and legal forums, and have the world's reserve currency (legal tender for reserves is the USD, enforced like any other legal tender, at the point of a gun).I will say I have more faith in ORO's arguments than in those of any other economist I have read. Principally because he describes an economic structure plausible to a developed intellect, backed up by quotes and much data from historical sources. And also because he is clearly progressing in this thinking and conclusions over time, where others seem stuck in but one mode of analysis and disputation. He is believable, where none of the others are. And there are elements in his philosophy that I am uncomfortable with, but do not have the insight or data to refute.Thanks for the stimulation which brought me to write this.<<<<FWIWGoldfan. Max Rabbitz (11/11/01; 18:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65136) WAC http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2001/11/11/wbin11.xml With regard to the article questioning the nature of the collapse of the Trade Towers. It is my understanding that steel loses structural strength long before reaching the melting point. It appears that Bin Laden has now taken "credit" for the acts. Good to question things though. Pandagold (11/11/01; 18:20:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 65135) Leigh Leigh: Thanks. Yes, I saw that #129 last week and it was this that brought his name to mind. However it did not say what is Templeton's current outlook on the market, or general economy. Leigh (11/11/01; 18:07:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 65134) Pandagold Try reading Gold Trail Message 129 from last week. That's where FOA talks about Mr. Templeton. Pandagold (11/11/01; 17:11:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 65133) FOA If you are out there any news on the views of Templeton? FOA Leigh has suggested I ask you for any news you may have on the views of John Templeton as to the outlook for the markets and the economy. As I have mentioned, I recall him predicting the meteoric rise of the markets back in 1987 following what was hailed as a crash at the time.I repect the views of Buffet, and Templeton. They have always impressed me by their sincerity. And, of course, they are successful investors. Pandagold (11/11/01; 16:58:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65132) Netking on Bush and Saddam Netking: Now Saddam did not personally shoot anyone -- did he? Not being there I don't know.I wonder how many country men Bush has had shot or disposed of in various ways. He wouldn't do it personally, naturally. But the CIA,and all government law enforcement agencies are under him. Sorry, but he must carry the can.There is a lot of evidence piling up that US government departments knew of the impending attack on NY and Washington. Also that there is a lot more to that event than meets the eye.Nah, him attending prayers doesn't change my opinion. Some of our worst murderers have been bible thumpers. He has shifty eyes. I also watched him closely when he was first told of the tragic event in NY. He was at some school in Sarasota at the time. It didn't appear to come as any shock or surprise to me. A bit like Lyndon Johnson (did I get the spelling right?) when he was told of the assassination of Kennedy.But, he's your president, and maybe the one you voted for, so I can understand your point of view. I am totally impartial, with stronger leanings towards the USA ( the country, and the people) It's the US government, and its president, that scares the hell out of me.The year of 2001 and we have the leader of a large democratic country talking about wanting a man 'dead or alive'. What happened to the rule of law - an English based law where a man is innocent until proven guilty, even if that man admits to the crime. Even mass murderers are entitiled to a trial by judge and jury. We don't say, we believe they must be guilty lets kill them.Bush belongs to the wild west, bounty hunters, sheriff posses and vigilantes. No wonder he needs a cultured, educated diplomat as in Blair to do his PR work for him.But, as I said, I respect your opinion and your reasons Galearis (11/11/01; 16:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65131) Good delivery bars of silver Recommend all silverbugs keep this updated and in a file folder.... The Good Delivery List - Silver - The following is a list of Refiners of silver whose bars were found to meet the required standard when originally testedhttp://www.lbma.org.uk/good_delivery_silver.html Leigh (11/11/01; 16:20:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 65130) Pandagold FOA seems to be acquainted with Mr. Templeton. Perhaps you can persuade him to break his silence and answer your question. THE TRAIL IS TOO QUIET, FOA!!!! Netking (11/11/01; 15:50:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65129) Pandagold Pandagold(65121) Thanks Sir for your well thought view of things. Personally I have more confidence in President George W. than President Saddam in terms of human rights treatment of their respective peoples. Saddam is well known for having shot those who disagree with him (including his very own relations!). . . George W. known for his weekly Whitehouse prayer meetings seeking the wisdom to govern. I would suggest we need to judge a book by more than it's cover.PS; Did you get any of those Panda coins? auspec (11/11/01; 15:41:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65128) Pandagold From your #65117:"Now you may be forgiven for believing that when they start to move, it is because the manipulators have lost their grip. Believe me, they NEVER lose. They sometimes pretend for general consumption - ie Soros, to lose, but when they do lose on the 'swings' and make a song about it, they neglect to tell you about the 'roundabouts' where they cleaned up." END {This, above, is your phrase I'm still pondering/pandering {smile}.Comment: I believe discordant notes are struck, even by the PE, but am still pondering this phrase. Of course it would be simpler to turn lemons into lemon-aid if you already had the equipment and a lemon-aid stand, no?PE is Power Elite, of which we speak {or Penile Elves or Putrified Egalitarians}.Hope this clarifies. Pandagold (11/11/01; 15:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65127) John Templeton Talking about John Templeton. Haven't heard of him for some time.Has anyone any information on his expressed views on the current market outlook?I do remember at the time of the 1987 correction ( almost said crash as it was referred to at the time), that he said when the bull takes off again, which would not be long away, it would soar beyond anyone's imagination ) or words to that effect) Well, he was right on the ball.I believe, he is one of the few honourable men in the market place today. Why? Just gut feeling. Pandagold (11/11/01; 15:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65126) Black Blade Buffet and Soros. Black Blade Warren Buffet, and Templeton, I would listen to. Soros - paleface speak with forked tongue, I wouldn't trust him to give me the correct time ( that goes for Bush too). If they told me the correct time, I would be looking for the catch, ie, why would these two faced 'sobs' be telling me the truth? Galearis (11/11/01; 14:54:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65125) Gandalf the White Sunshine Minting Thanks for the heads-up on Sunshine Minting. At least this company seems to have a supply of bullion - although it is unclear whether this is production material or warehouse stock that is trucked in... Are they a distributor or refiner of all their product line. Their web site states:***************snipSunshine Minting, Inc. produces a large variety of Sunshine bullion coins and bars. Sunshine bullion is well respected and acknowledged in the industry as a high quality hallmark in both silver and gold. Silver is sold in denominations of 1 , 5 , 10 , 50 , and 100 ounces. Gold is sold in denominations of 1/25, 1/20, 1/10, ¼, ½, 1, 5, and 10 ounces. All Bullion product is sold at Sunshine's current price plus a nominal per ounce fabrication charge. Bullion products are typically sold in large volumes to coin dealers, wholesalers, or investors.*********There's one supplier of 100 oz bars.Thanks again for the info...G. Black Blade (11/11/01; 14:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 65124) Pending Energy Crisis Energy prices recently tripled across the nation. In some places electricity prices rose as much as 800%. Now prices have temporarily fallen back. Now it is a matter of "out of sight - out of mind." The "Energy Crisis" is very likely to return.The US is reliant on foreign oil. In 1985 the US imported as much as 3.2 million bb/day. Today the US imports as much as 12.3 million bbl/day. That is even with the shrinking economy. New exploration for new oil has essentially been halted since 1998 when oil prices dropped to $10.00/bbl. As the economy retracts there is little incentive to continue to explore for more sources of hydrocarbons at current petroleum prices.The oil tanker and pipeline business continues to do good business, as demand is still high. However, insurance premiums and other shipping costs have risen over 150%. The war in Afghanistan and rising Middle East opposition to the western "Infidels" presence in the region has created tensions between the west and the Arab oil producers. The threat of an expanding war and attacks on the Middle East petroleum infrastructure has resulted in higher security and transportation costs.Refinery capacity is maxed out. Refineries are operating at all out capacity and still less oil is refined in the US than 25 years ago. No new refineries have been built in over 25 years due to environmental liabilities. Meanwhile, other US refineries have threatened to close down. So far over 75 refineries have closed down in the US in the past 25 years and this trend will continue increasing US reliance on foreign sources. Environmental regulations make building new refineries impossible. In short the US is screwed. Electricity costs are likely to increase sharply in the coming months. Even though the US economy is facing a crash to rival that of the Great Depression, people are still using electricity. The "Tech Boom" of the 1990's led to an explosive increase in electricity consumption. This will continue as people continue to use computers and the Internet. In fact electricity demand has increased over 60% since 1980. This trend will continue regardless of the state of the US economy. Very little has been done to prepare for the next "Energy Crisis." Another bottleneck has not even been addressed. Transmission grids across the US are woefully inadequate to meet any new demand, and any real increase in load capacity will lead to a continuation of the blackouts and brownouts that we saw last summer. As new power generating facilities are proposed no new transmission grid capacity is being built to bring new electricity to market. Drill rig counts have dropped precipitously in the last several months. That means less oil and natural gas will be available in coming months and as production capacity from production wells begin to decline. Much of this seasonal while for other regions the cost of production and transportation is higher than the price of oil and natural gas. An increase in energy demand at this point will result in rising energy costs and in the current economic environment petroleum prices will act as a cap to any economic recovery. This recession will be an long-term and extended as both Warren Buffett and George Soros have recently pointed out. In fact Warren Buffett has bought a Midwestern utility for his Berkshire Hathaway holdings. The "Energy Crisis" is still with us - though only bubbling under the surface. If the war in Afghanistan should spill over into the oil producing regions of the Middle East then there will be addition pressure and competition for non Middle East sources. It is quite possible that some "friendly" Middle Eastern oil producers are at risk for revolution and overthrow by Islamic Fundamentalists. We live in "Interesting Times."- Black Blade Pandagold (11/11/01; 14:39:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65123) Auspec: You lost me Auspec: <<<I believe discordant notes are struck, even by the PE, but am still pondering this phrase. Of course it would be simpler to turn lemons into lemon-aid if you already had the equipment and a lemon-aid stand, no? >>>Wow, you lost me completely on this one. PE to me is price earnings, is this what you meant??? If so to what PE ratio are you referring? What phrase are you pondering?I ask this because sometimes I think maybe I have said something which through my lack of clarity has mislead. It is so easily done when one writes something quickly on such complicated subjects. I keep telling myself I must stop. I must listen to myself, and heed, I fear. Gandalf the White (11/11/01; 14:21:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65122) Galearis (11/11/01 msg#: 65108) Sunshine Silver Mining Co.http://www.sunshinemining.com/formation1.htmlApologies if this has already been posted in September. Announcement that not only is the mine to be closed but the refinery too.****SUNSHINE MINING AND REFINING COMPANY has sold the Refining portion of the company, WHICH is still producing product as Sunshine Minting! All of the line of silver bullion products are being made and selling well.<;-) Pandagold (11/11/01; 14:18:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 65121) Netking On Iraq Netking: I will stake my life on Iraq's objectives - certainly since the Gulf debacle ( I don't call it a war) has been, and is, like so many other nations, self preservation, and avoidance of interference by those that use the US ( and Israel) to 'mess with' their internal affairs.This may offend you and many others, but, if there was only one choice, I would trust the word of Saddam before I would trust the word of Bush, and I am ashamed to have to say that.I don't know either personally, I suppose in culture and ethnic background, I would be closer to that of Bush than Saddam. I make my judgement purely on my assessment of body language, and personal features.In what dealings I have had with Arabs in business, I have found them very honourable. I once rented two houses to different Arab students. I never had to worry about my rent - in fact they got annoyed with me if I failed to come round and collect it - remember these were students. They would bring me gifts back when they had been home, and they took care of my property.Please don't anyone jump to the conclusion I am judging Saddam on my business association with these students.Nothing bad was ever said about Saddam while he was 'our friend'( Or the US was using him, and there is evidence that some female US diplomat passed him information which encouraged him to invade Kuwait to assert, I understand, a legitimate (to them) claim on part of the country. I have not studied the history of the region - and the truth of much of what we are told about history has been stretched beyond credibility, and therefore one has to usea little imagination, and a general 'feel, when researching. To conclude, I do NOT fear Iraq, Russia, China, Bosnia, or any other nation. I do fear where those that are using the US are taking us. I become more fearful daily. auspec (11/11/01; 13:24:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65120) Pandagold From your #65117:"Now you may be forgiven for believing that when they start to move, it is because the manipulators have lost their grip. Believe me, they NEVER lose. They sometimes pretend for general consumption - ie Soros, to lose, but when they do lose on the 'swings' and make a song about it, they neglect to tell you about the 'roundabouts' where they cleaned up." ENDComment: I believe discordant notes are struck, even by the PE, but am still pondering this phrase. Of course it would be simpler to turn lemons into lemon-aid if you already had the equipment and a lemon-aid stand, no?You are right, I have considered the move to $850 POG to be a free-market move, and of course manipulations will go both directions. It would take more than a little getting used to for me to imagine CBs pushing gold higher. Pump and dump with a trend............ no problema.Bottom line--- Looks like you give these guys more credibility/control than I am willing to. I always appreciate your perspectives. Netking (11/11/01; 13:11:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65119) Pandagold Sir Pandagold(65111) You have outlined Sir the possible risks associated with focusing on Iraq. . . However Panda, what is the opportunity cost if nothing is done given Iraq's widely stated objectives, your thoughts?------------------------------------------------------------Good time to buy a silver mine or two guys! BR549 (11/11/01; 12:49:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 65118) Barings, Britain's oldest merchant bank failed because of derivatives. The Bank of England provides an exhaustive report as to the cause of the Bank's failure. http://www.numa.com/ref/barings/bar03.htm According to the http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary19.html#anchor5941---"In 1994 Barings, Britain's oldest merchant bank, had been speculating on the long side of the Japanese stock market, the Nikkei, although most (all?) Directors didn't know it. As the market drifted lower the Barings trader (the infamous Nick Leeson) tried to support the market using derivatives and massively built up the long position. Then, on January 17, 1995 an earthquake struck Kobe, in Japan's industrial heartland, destroying 25,000 buildings and killing over 3,000 people. Leeson continued to try to plug the market, but it fell sharply and Barings was toast in less than a month."The Bank of England's conclusions (link above), in summary:"(a) the losses were incurred by reason of unauthorised andconcealed trading activities within BFS;(b) the true position was not noticed earlier by reason of aserious failure of controls and managerial confusion within Barings; (c) the true position had not been detected prior to the collapse by the external auditors, supervisors or regulators of Barings.""There was no clear understanding as to whether or to what extent the sums requested by Barings were for client trading or for house trading. In consequence the true position was not reflected in the accounts."BR549--Just like derivaitve trading today is not reflected in the financial statements of banks and CB's. In summation, the B of E blames this bank's derivatives failure on one individual's misconduct and lack of adequate supervision. They fail to explain how his activities went undetected for so long and what has changed since 1994. The main change that I can see is that not only are member banks trading in derivatives without adequate financial controls in place, so is their CB The Bank of England.It can't happen again? Sure it can and on a massive scale this time. Better convert those pounds into physical Gold while you can.BR549 Pandagold (11/11/01; 12:30:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 65117) Auspec Manipulation doesn't always mean 'down' Auspec: My comrade in arms, and fellow sufferer. ( by suffering, I mean - 'the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune', we have to endure to make an hones buck) there is a danger , due to current circumstances, in believing that 'manipulation' means to hold a price down. In the late seventies, manipulation took the price of gold to dizzy heights, then brought it down with a bang. Or, do you believe it was free market forces that took the price so high?You have to understand who is behind the manipulation, and what their aims are.This is so important, I will repeat - You have to understand who is behind the manipulation and what their aims are.Gold (paper or otherwise) is not being dumped every time it reaches the top of its trading range for no reason. There really is a method in their seeming madness.Greenspan did not permit the market bubble to occur, nor did he flood the market with dollars, because his wife had been giving him a bad time, or that he had fallen asleep during one of the important lectures on macro economics when we was a student, and cheated in his exams.There really IS a plan.Yes, silver will rise, and so will gold, I have said that, but only when it fits in with the plan for them to do so. And that certainly, from my reckoning, is not yet. Now you may be forgiven for believing that when they start to move, it is because the manipulators have lost their grip. Believe me, they NEVER lose. They sometimes pretend for general consumption - ie Soros, to lose, but when they do lose on the 'swings' and make a song about it, they neglect to tell you about the 'roundabouts' where they cleaned up.It's all team work. It is networking in perfection. It is deception of the highest order.When some manipulations have appeared to fail they were either 'outsiders' (outside the fraternity - don't I pick some nice names), or it was a planned fail, an excuse. Excuses are necessary, they help to comfort the gullible, and quieten the aggrieved.. Black Blade (11/11/01; 12:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65116) Do the Terrorists Have Nukes? Probably not, but look out for radioactive bombs. http://opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=95001450 Snippit:MOSCOW--The threat of nuclear terrorism suddenly seems more real. People who slam passenger jets into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon would surely not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against big cities if they had them. But do they? And if not, can terrorists soon get hold of usable nuclear devices?During a joint news conference with French President Jacques Chirac on Tuesday, President Bush said that Osama bin Laden has threatened in the past to use chemical, biological and even nuclear weapons, adding, "he is an evil man and I wouldn't put it past him to develop evil weapons to try to harm civilization as we know it."President Bush also said that there is no evidence that bin Laden or his al Qaeda organization possess such weaponry. But just last month a three-star Russian general told reporters that terrorists had attempted to penetrate Russia's nuclear weapons facilities. Black Blade: Interesting analysis - Interesting Times. Now what if a "Dirty Nuke" was detonated in an oil field? Galearis (11/11/01; 12:23:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 65115) @ R. Powell and Netking.... Refinery closures... Coincidently I was perusing the Silver Institute web site this afternoon and note that they are still using year 2000 data. Hmmmm. One would think it time for an update. I also note that they still list Harmon and Handy and Sunshine Silver Refineries as members - now both defunct. I have also been making additional researches into the assertation that refineries are no longer making 100 oz bars (in the US). Just speculation, of course, but with the loss of major refineries, one of the signs of this would be an inability to replenish these investment/speculation (smile) sizes to meet ever increasing demand. From a economics 101 perspective, if the demand is there and the supply is there, then the producers will supply. If, on the other hand there is a shortage of 100 ozers, we may also have an infrastructure problem affecting supply to boot....G. Black Blade (11/11/01; 11:58:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 65114) Wall Street Takes Aim at Accounting Tricks http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011111/business_financial_earnings_tricks_dc_1.html Snippit:NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is starting to refuse to bite the bait on dubious earnings numbers highlighted by corporations in press releases. Companies tout profit figures, frequently called pro forma results, that strip out unseemly one-time charges and expenses at record levels -- more than $200 billion this year alone. Investors, analysts, and accountants are revolting, and pressure is building to do away with the medley of different profit numbers or at least cut down on it.Standard & Poor's, a major compiler of earnings and other financial data, now will treat restructuring charges, stock option expenses, and write-downs from ongoing operations as part of a company's operating earnings -- items that many companies exclude from their version of operating earnings. ``In the past, S&P would take a company's special charges at their word,'' said S&P analyst Robert Friedman, who was involved in the project. ``But now we're going to say, 'Hey, wait a minute.'''Mobile phone maker Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT), for example, reported a third-quarter pro forma loss of $153 million early last month. After including charges for investment impairments, cost reduction activities and additional reserves for its financing of a Turkish cellular operator, however, the company posted a whopping $1.4 billion loss.Black Blade: Amazon.Com is another prime example. Amazon.Com relies exclusively on Pro Forma accounting and will likely either be acquired or bankrupt early next year. Though due to "Pro Forma" accounting many dim investors will be cleaned out. Mining has its own version of "Pro Forma" accounting. Barrick is an example. Though ABX claims cash operating profits of 17 cents a share, they have actually lost -$2.84 a share. When investors wake up the markets will resume the downward plunge. WAC (Wide Awake Club) (11/11/01; 11:51:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 65113) Also this. http://serendipity.magnet.ch/wtc.html eom. WAC (Wide Awake Club) (11/11/01; 11:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 65112) WTC http://www.rumormillnews.net/cgi-bin/config.pl?read=13636 For those who still insist that it was some Arab that that too down the twin towers the above link is an absolute MUST READ. Pandagold (11/11/01; 11:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 65111) Iraq The real target It was suspected very early on that the real target of Bush and co is Iraq. So much so that this concern was put on a number of occasions to Tony Blair by a number of leaders and non-aligned politicians who were speaking, not only for themselves, but many of the far sighted British electorate.To calm people's fears, it has been continually affirmed by Blair that he has been assured by Washington that attacking Iraq was definitely not on the cards. Yet we have heard this double speak from the US.Now that it is merely a question of time before Afghanistanis 'in the bag', we are hearing the rumblings of the next target, little by little, drip by drip.If the people do not put a stop to the governments that they elected, then we deserve all we get. At the end of the day I will guarantee that there will be ONE victor, and that will be Israel. Anyone want to bet? You may not be alive to collect it, but don't worry, you would not have won.I am not feeling smug, I may not be around either. Why is it not the so called Arab 'terrorists' I fear, but rather some self induced state terrorism to keep us all in line. Keep the focus on the enemy without, when the real enemy is within, and has been for a long time.They have even come upon a video in which Bin Laden admits guilt for 11/9. (Surprise, surprise). I can't wait for the Saddam one to come out. We heard how Washington has been consulting Hollywood. Producing a 'virtual real' Bin Laden tape, or a Saddam tape would be child's play for them, they could give it one of the junior technicians to do. auspec (11/11/01; 11:33:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65110) Pandagold A Nation Without Borders Yes, good Sir, I am certainly of the opinion that a 'manipulation' cannot be continued indefinitely! You got me pegged to a tee. One simple reason is, as stated last night: "Pandagold/sector-- We shall soon see what is 'exhaustible' and what is not. Yes, they have much power, almost unimaginable, but gods they are not {don't tell them, they'll be upset}." ENDI greatly appreciate you insight into "A nation w/o borders", and would guess that I am in posession of at least 'uncommon knowledge' in regards to this elusive entity. It is something that has been studied over the greater course of a lifetime, and that is why I often query you in this regard, as to Rothschilds, etc. This background is provided so you or others may understand many of the variables factored into the equation that points towards a failed manipulation, in this particular example, the silver market. ********I do not make such a statement w/o realization that the elitists have tremendous resources********.Let's, on the other hand, give credit where credit is due, fair enough? I'm talking about the fundamentals of supply and demand as well as the 'Invisible Hand' of the free markets which have a fairly decent track record {gigantic understatement}. We've got a pretty good match here, no? Free vs. fraudulent market. I am not a classically trained economist, to put it mildly, but this silver market comes down to a simple variable. How much silver is in the hands of those who hope to keep its price down? If they have 10 or more years, more power to them, they will put of the INEVITABLE for that extended period of time. Silver is being consumed, and has been consumed, at a dramatic pace for about 50 years. You have a method of getting out of this mess w/o drastically higher POS? I'd love to hear it.Your main point is extremely well taken, there is a 'parallel world' out there that is beyond our imagination. But, let's not forget their past failures. London Gold Pool comes to mind as well as most other 'gold assaults'. Adam Hamilton has stated in one or several of his essays that these 'manipulations' have NEVER succeeded in the long run.Do the Gents behind the silver games have resources we are unaware of? Undoubtedly. Is it a finite amount? Undoubtedly.Are they playing an extremely foolish game? Undoubtedly. Will they fail? Undoubtedly. We can give these guys too much credit, no? That's where I'm coming from.Do you, or anyone else, have some examples of long term manipulations, that were sussessful? Ones that went directly against market principles?So, speaking for silver only, it comes down to how much they have available to them that they want to continue squandering to keep silver below its cost of production. They've shown us their paper, but they will, sooner or later, have to SHOW US THE METAL!!!I remain steadfast, Sir Panda, this manipulation is doomed, as are most all manipulations. Not idle words, or rank speculation, but a carefully considered and sound opinion, based on current evidence as well as history. The king is barren of silver jewelery {near nekked}.Yours in favor of long term unmanipulable free markets,auspec R Powell (11/11/01; 11:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65109) Silver production Again from the Survey Silver Mine Production by Source Metal Primary 145.9 Gold 91.0 Copper 140.2 Lead/Zinc 205.7 About three quarters of silver production comes as a by-product of mining for other metals. We know that gold mining is not expanding at current gold prices. I believe copper cost 50 cents and up per pound to bring to market, currently trading at about 60 cents with many copper companies cutting back on production. I don't know much about lead and zinc other than production will decline with the slowing economy, no? To remain profitable, mines must produce more as prices fall OR cut expenses by cutting production. Any thoughts?? Happy weekend Rich Galearis (11/11/01; 11:11:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 65108) Sunshine Silver Mining Co. http://www.sunshinemining.com/formation1.html Apologies if this has already been posted in September. Announcement that not only is the mine to be closed but the refinery too.G. Netking (11/11/01; 11:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65107) "Yes, I did it (but so what)" - Bin Laden: http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2001/11/11/wbin11.xml OSAMA BIN LADEN has for the first time admitted that his al-Qa'eda group carried out the attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, the Telegraph reveals. . . R Powell (11/11/01; 11:06:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65106) Silver numbers Some numbers for year 2000 silver supply. These are from the World Silver Survey. Mine Production 589.4 Official Sector Sales 74.7 Old Silver Scrap 180.3 Producer Hedging 0 Implied Disinvestment 102.0 Total Supply 946.3 And where did it go in year 2000? Fabrication Industrial 378.0 Photography 230.6 Jewelry 281.7 Coins 30.5 Official Sector Purchases 0 Producer Hedging 25.4 It's interesting that the 25.4 million ounces of hedging is listed under demand and this is explained as the Survey believes that that amount was Un-hedged or positions were closed. Again this for year 2000. Rich Netking (11/11/01; 11:00:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 65105) Iraq threatens nuclear retaliation http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2001/november/11_11_4.html First it was Osama bin Laden (per interview in Dawn newpaper I posted a few days back) that confirmed he had & would use nukes. Now a few days later it is Iraq . . ."There is plenty of reason to make very clear to the Iraqis that the United States does not intend to let the Iraqis threaten their own people, threaten their neighbors, or threaten our interests by acquiring weapons of mass destruction." - U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. . .All in all, the world faces an uncertain future, not a time to put faith in the fiat but rather something of substance. ------------------------------------------------------------Galearis - The "Pirates" down these parts are pretty competitive (grin) especially in the better stores . . . a good discount is sometimes quite good for us. I suspect when the proverbial hits the fan (and the media)the shelves will be somewhat emptier of Ag . . . you know the sheeples mentality; "buy on the way up & especially buy near the top, but be seen to have it" - Netking Belgian (11/11/01; 10:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 65104) @ Dragonfly - WW-III Thanks for posting the link and bringing the war-possibility a bit closer to our attention !Trying to find out "who" *wants* / *declares* war and for what (real) reason(s)? What if the list of countries, who are giving refuge to criminals (terrorists), are all oil producing countries from arabic origine ? And what if the chased criminals, move to non oil states (Balkan/African moslim states/Russian -Chineze-Indonesian, moslim enclaves) ? A war on much different frontlines ? Bush's speech in UN and the attention on nuclear arsenals is indeed forecasting some hard times ahead. It seems as if the criminals are not going to be brought to justice, with discrete, covert actions and pressing diplomacy.Was it "this" that -they- wanted to achieve, with the mounting pressure of terror ? And did the other party wanted/allowed, the pressure to be raised, as to justify "war" ?Will Pakistan provide the flame to the powder barril ?Tell me not to worry. Galearis (11/11/01; 10:10:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 65103) @Netking re post to auspec "Ag Bugs - Good silver jewellery looking cheap in the shops here today" I have to agree that the stuff looks to be getting cheaper but that is a far cry from being a good buy. I still have a hearty laugh about the pirates of retailand even as I watch the goods discounting going on from an overstocked economy. About a month ago, in a local mall with stores discounting their goods aggressively, I perused a local high-end jewellry shop. Here too select items were discounted up to 40%. The sterling, however, was regular price. In one display case I sighted a heavy sterling bracelet of perhaps 1.5 troy ounces for a price of $231CAN. Forty paces away at a kiosk that also sold sterling jewellry the same bracelet could be had for $80CAN - also regular price. Even if the kiosk people had discounted the chain by 50% one would still be paying (then) 5 times metal value. There is a ways to go yet.....But then there is still Christmas.G. dragonfly (11/11/01; 09:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65102) How about these guys? http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO109C.html. Seems pretty clear to me. The amount of gold we own may be the least of our worries at this point. Nice to have some though. dragonfly (11/11/01; 08:53:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65101) Mike Ruppert http://www.copvcia.com/stories/sept_2001/ww3.html Anybody reading Mike's fine analysis?? Pandagold (11/11/01; 08:51:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65100) Virtual Reality I share with you my comment I sent Robert Gordon on his article "It's Lonely at the Top" at WWW.Gold-Eagle. com today. (tongue in cheek stuff)He merely echoes what so many are today, in expressing his confusion and bewilderment over the performance of today's markets and how our leaders are behaving.Robert, What you are missing, is the same as what so many are missing - today we are living in a 'virtual real' world. As we have seen even in the movies, it is almost impossible to tell the 'real' real from the 'virtual' real. And anything can be done, there is no limit. In the 'virtual real', all academic economic theory is useless. ANYTHING goes. In the financial markets we are playing with paper. Do you remember the words of that song some years ago (if you do your age is showing)- "Paper Doll". We have paper anything, and everything today - and our forests have suffered to prove it. Correction, we now don't even need 'real' paper - we have digital 'paper'. It is also the age of Wizardry - hence the amazing success of "Harry Potter" and the adult version - Alan Greenspan. It's not all Alan's fault, he just works for the 'elite' network, and is guided and protected by them. No matter what happens, his age will take him out of the picture fairly soon, and if he lives long enough he will enjoy a very comfortable retirement having served his 'masters' ( not the US public) well. Still, we could perhaps now 'clone' him ( hope that thought doesn't give you sleepless nights)Ray Newton Chris Powell (11/11/01; 07:48:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65099) A special message of thanks to the "GATA Army" from Reg Howe http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/918 Latest from Reg Howe.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com BR549 (11/11/01; 07:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 65098) Manipulation Pandagold (msg#: 65096)---Sorry about the confusion about the dates. I will definitely be more careful in the future when posting dates and thank you for bringing it to my attention. The notable exception will be "911" as I think everyone knows what that means.When I used the word "evil" in reference to manipulations, I did not mean in a religious since. I tried to convey how "awful" manipulations really were. I just did not see the connotations that you saw in some of the previous posters implying that manipulations were not taking place and were not "awful". In fact, I found just the opposite.I just wanted to make sure I had not missed anything. I can now see your point about some of auspec's posts.BR549 BR549 (11/11/01; 06:39:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 65097) The House of Paper Hipplebeck (msg#: 65094)---On the contraire Sir, it is I who should thank you for bringing Enron to our attention. I had no idea just how devious their corporate officers really were. To answer your question: I am afraid the exposure these financial manipulations ultimately produce, (whether initially intended to shift risk to others as a protection or selfishly benefit insiders like Enron's officers did), that derivatives are on the whole not healthy for any economic system. Derivatives began as a good idea to hedge but have evolved into a sinister sub-economic market that is, IMHO, a very dangerous concept. My research indicates that MOST large corporations practice what they so eloquently call "risk management". Their stockholders have no idea of their bottom line exposure to Enron type losses which results in a 90%+ loss of market cap and the company being acquired.The more frightening thought now to me, is that Central Banks around the world are also playing the derivatives game without revealing the underlying risk to their citizens via reporting their derivative transactions on their financial statements. The Bank of International Settlements, since it is owned and run by the CB's of the world, should immediately implement reforms to their members. The BIS made the first step a few months ago by requiring member CB's to report derivative activity since 1998. This report identified that derivative activity has grown exponentially since ‘98, especially in the U.K. The debt ridden FIAT systems around the world are fragile enough without introducing additional paper manipulative tools within banking systems. I am afraid, my friend, that there are many more Enron's and Argentina type meltdowns in our future unless this derivative madness is curtailed soon. My solution, buy and take delivery of, physical Gold. It is the only true "hedge" against the inevitable collapse of the House of Paper.Regards,BR549 Pandagold (11/11/01; 06:26:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65096) B539 Confusion......... and the 'pearls of wisdom' B 529: Sorry fellow knight, but I am also a little confused. First it is the date. We must all remember when quoting dates in this universal forum that there is a different way of presenting them in America and other parts of the world - including the UK.This is why I always spell out the month when giving a date.For instance 11/8 in America would be 8th of November, and in the UK would be 11th of August. I am assuming here that you mean the former.The other confusing bit is your use of the word 'evil'. You state:- "I am confused. I went back in the archives to 11/8 and only found one poster who used the word manipulation (or anything beginning with the letters "manip") who posted that they didn't think that manipulation was "evil" and was possible in reference to their post." (end of quote)Where does "evil" come into it? I never used that word, or myself noticed it in relation to manipulation. I puzzled this one for some time.Now, I am not getting at you, or anyone here. I am sure you are trying to clear a point, and that is everyone's entitlement.About going back into the archives, this I have personally found difficult on previous occasions unless one has unlimited time at one's disposal. And that I do not have. I tried noting key post numbers but scrapped the sheet it was on by mistake.However, comments about the pros and cons of 'manipulation' can be made without the use of the keyword. For example - #65075 ".........Thus, our silver can only be toyed with for a prescribed period of time before 'reality-day' arrives along with more 'ration'-ality"let me quickly say here, that I am not singling out Sir Auspic's post, as there a others, and that is why I did not refer to it in my post on which you are commenting. I only mention it now because it was one within the short time period you state you 'researched'.I can also understand, Siir Auspic, and how so many, especially ones with an academic knowledge of economics can see things this way. I studied, for a while economics at the LSE (London school of Economics), and saw just how professional economists make the errors they do - so I quit. You can learn all the economic 'theory' you need to know from a highschool text book on economics. This world does not move according to academic economic 'theory' - which many now are slowly beginning to notice. The best subject to take is psychology, not to absorb too much of the theory as fact, but to make you aware of the patterns of human behaviour for self study through observation. A good knowledge of Jewish history in relation to world history is also useful. Their secular leadership, give them their due, got to understand the power of wealth at a very early stage in their development. They also had a natural understanding of human behaviour.One poster (recent) gave a quote from 'proverbs'. There is a wealth of wisdom contained in those writings. Whether one believes in the biblical God, Judaism, Christianity or is a confirmed atheist, one has to accept that those writings were made thousands of years ago.Like many pursuits, you can read about them, you can study them in depth, you can qualify as an authority, but unless you take them to heart, and put them into practice you are a bystander - a voyeur.The Jewish secular leadership throughout their history have practised them ('Basic laws governing human nature - in particular, behaviour, and the gaining of power through wealth - simplified - "he who has the gold makes the rules))- at least where they apply to gaining the power. Unfortunately, the ones (pearls of Solomon's wisdom) that have been overlooked are the ones concerning the use of that power once gained...........'absolute power (unfortunately) corrupts absolutely. Canuck (11/11/01; 05:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 65095) @ Waverider Refering back to my post last night I think the term is 'appropriation' ("the act of taking or making use of without authority or right"). It's like the deal when a new freeway is set to go through your back yard and the gov. buys your property and boots you out whether you like it or not.Now I read on in the dictionary and I see 'expropriation'. ("to deprive of possession or proprietary rights, to transfer the property of another to one's own possession).Not sure of the legal mumbo-jumbo but the 'crash and burn' and the 'rape and pillage' is the 'expropriation and appropriation' of gold.Yeah...yeah, that's what they intend to do, the old 'E & A' of the 'superhedgers'!!You have to read the 58 page PDF and another article that a very informed person sent to the forum a couple years ago about the 'government intent on the future of gold'. I will try to dig them up. Gold represents everything that government abhor. Money tied to, backed by or represented by gold is not in government favour. The concept goes something like this; maybe someone can expand. Since there is a finite quantity of gold both above and below ground and therefore if money is fractionally, to whatever degree, tied to gold there is a limit to expanding money. Money not tied to gold in any shape or form is coined 'fiat'. Due to the mathematical structuring of our debt systems money must expand continuously and forever and "gold stands in the way of this insidious process" (A.G.)The theory of the Euro with an 'attachment' to gold goes something like this; 15% (or is it 30%?) of the reserves of the common EU membership is gold. Randy keeps us informed as to reserves of the EU (thanks site steward). I do not follow the numbers to a full extent but I suppose (and hope) that if and when money(EURO) expands, gold reserve expands proportionately to maintain the magic figure mentioned above. The definition debate then surfaces as to the EURO, is it fiat or fractional 'money'. Reserves may only be say 5% of which X% is gold but as long as this (guesstimate) 1.5% number is consistantly maintained it is not fiat (in the definitions that I have outlined). There is plenty of 'hair-splitting' going on I am sure but in contrast to the USA, money supply is expanded with no involvement or attachment to gold and thus the fractionalization grows inversely larger and larger forever. It is of the nature of this forum that this will not go on forever, mathematically impossible so the theory goes. As gold reserves deplete and money reaches zero value, as defined by credible backing, dollars are abandoned; see 'BIG FLOAT'. It is also the nature of this forum to define 'credible backing'. Many, many theories......and here is mine regarding gold shares. I have shares in several CDN producers, 5 gold and one silver to be precise. I have weighted them in terms of 'hedging'. I have 'limit orders' placed on all of them, all of the time. I truely believe that the hedging structure of ANY PM producer is an unknown; I take this stance because I believe it prudent. I am not privy to EXACT details, nor do I believe the higher end of the accounting information supplied is accurate or reliable. The stature of any of these companies is a feeling opposed to a concrete conclusion. In any event, I will dispose of my 'weakest links' first (and quickly; north of $325US) and then trickle down to the theoretical non-hedgers. North of $425-475 (IMVHO) represents danger, when gold hits this level most definitely there is systematic stress, (ie dollar on fire) and time to seriously re-evaluate circumstances. (Guns and gold?)Hope this helps.Canuck. Hipplebeck (11/11/01; 05:46:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65094) to BR549 Thank you very much, sir, for your response yesterday to my question about Enron.I am wondering how many more of these situations might be out there now. Kind of scary. Belgian (11/11/01; 03:16:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 65093) @ Panda of Gold # 65079 Physical Gold in Possession is the "anti-thesis" of paper, any paper ! All other vieuws on Gold are commodity derived.Probably, live is too short for coming to terms with that very fundamental of Physical Gold, and vieuwing it as another less-vulgar commodity, is more convenient.This explains why Gold as anti-paper, can only be considered by the ones who care to transfer "wealth", from generation to generation. As a consequence, they and they alone decide, when the total amount of Gold is ripe for value adjustment. All other price fluctuations are commodity (offer/demand) related.It is an absolute minority that is accumulating Physical Gold in Possession and therefore automatically in the full understanding of what it means. It is when all paper-gold, stops circling around, that true valuation will start.Today, all paper (stocks/bonds/fiat) do continiously represent less and less underlying intrinsic value. Indeed, it is burning, vaporizing. A house/land, becomes less a house and increasingly a paper castle or house of cards, options / futures /warrants etc...Co-ownership (shares) of a quoted enterprise gets loaded with suffocating paper speculative/gambling paper-derivatives. The shareholder is holding more and more risk instead of a tangible/reliable piece of growth. The faithfull/loyal, "holders", must give way to pirates.The general public lost the real notion of "wealth" completely. The organizers of the derivative circus are having golden (achrrr) times. They are heating up all paper.The wealth-fundamentals are only left with the surviving dynasties, whoever they are.The above is nothing more than the precious Gold-Trail, available at this site, ONLY ! And the more time goes by, the better I do understand why the crowd of Gold-Holders is so small. And probably, always will remain, small.Don't know "when", but definitely know "how", all paper shall burn.That's why I keep on accumulating Physical Gold in Possession, permanently and not occasionally for the wrong opportunistic reasons. It is only when the physical is in your hand, that the golden fundamental is really understood. And, it took me quite some time. Thanks TG ! Black Blade (11/11/01; 01:04:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65092) Osama claims he has nukes: If US uses N-arms it will get same response http://www.dawn.com/2001/11/10/top1.htm Snippit:This was the first interview given by Osama to any journalist after the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington. The correspondent was taken blindfolded in a jeep from Kabul on the night of Nov 7 to a place where it was extremely cold and one could hear the sound of anti-aircraft guns firing away. After a wait of some time , Osama arrived with about a dozen bodyguards and Dr Ayman Al-Zuwahiri and answered questions.Osama: America and its allies are massacring us in Palestine, Chechenya, Kashmir and Iraq. The Muslims have the right to attack America in reprisal. The Islamic Shariat says Muslims should not live in the land of the infidel for long. The Sept 11 attacks were not targeted at women and children. The real targets were America's icons of military and economic power. The Holy Prophet (peace be upon him) was against killing women and children. When he saw a dead woman during a war, he asked why was she killed ? If a child is above 13 and wields a weapon against Muslims, then it is permitted to kill him. The American people should remember that they pay taxes to their government, they elect their president, their government manufactures arms and gives them to Israel and Israel uses them to massacre Palestinians. The American Congress endorses all government measures and this proves that the entire America is responsible for the atrocities perpetrated against Muslims. The entire America, because they elect the Congress. I ask the American people to force their government to give up anti-Muslim policies. The American people had risen against their government's war in Vietnam. They must do the same today. The American people should stop the massacre of Muslims by their government.Black Blade: Interesting interview with a lot of contradictions, wild claims, and reasoning why civilians are legitimate targets. He also plays on George Dubya's use of the word "Crusade." This war could very easily spread across the Middle East. Netking (11/11/01; 00:53:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 65091) Gold $8565 an ounce! (or eight million dollars a brick) http://www.321gold.com/mustread/eureka/eureka.html More on the Eureka sale (and picture) that Black Blade carried the story on a couple of days ago. The awesome 'gold brick' was purchased by a "Forbes 400 business executive,'' according to Michael Carabini, president of Monaco Financial, who handled the incredible sale. . ." Netking (11/11/01; 00:48:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 65090) "Greenspan's Fine Mess" - Adam Hamilton http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/111001/hamilton111001.html Another great read from Adam.(Silver bugs, I e mailed him the other day to write another on silver soon,<grin>) Snippets;". . . . After an unprecedented 10 interest rate cuts in slightly more than 10 months, three of which were panicked emergency inter-meeting moves, and 450 basis points of easing, the Greenspan Fed has single-handedly exacerbated and prolonged what may yet prove to be the worst economic slowdown in United States history. . . .. . . Observing "Maestro" Greenspan at work in recent years is like watching a drunk attempt to drive home on an icy winter road. Greenspan has forgotten his responsibilities and can barely keep the Fed, let alone the US economy, between the ditches. . . .. . . Now every American, every investor in US assets, and every country that trades with the United States has to bear the painful consequences of the final manipulative actions of a mad man, as Greenspan is the greatest inflationist since John Law devastated early 18th-century France.As American taxpayers and voters, we should all be extremely concerned about the dark path Greenspan has chosen for our country. These far-reaching decisions by the Fed Chief to actively manipulate both the price and quantity of money that the Fed creates for our supposedly free-market economy will have resounding effects, for our own individual financial futures as well as the financial destiny of the United States of America. . . . " Black Blade (11/11/01; 00:40:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 65089) US blunders leave key fighters disillusioned http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,590477,00.html Snippit:Medium-ranking Taliban commanders in the eastern provinces, including the city of Jalalabad, had promised to defect at the first sign of a credible insurrection, but the Peshawar-based opposition was crippled by its lack of vehicles, weapons, satellite phones and cash, he said."We want to fight and everything is ready on the ground but we don't have the resources we need, none of it has come. Unless it does we can't move. We can't understand the Americans. We have been in regular contact and told them what we need. They are crazy people, they don't know anything." Several Taliban leaders who had approached them to secretly endorse the return of the exiled king, Zahir Shah, were getting cold feet as the bombing looked set to continue into the winter. Commando raids had "achieved nothing" and an invasion of US ground troops would only solidify Taliban support, Mr Zaman said. "The Americans will be defeated if they work according to their plan." Fellow commanders in Peshawar had banned attempted infiltrations to stir revolt after the failure of Abdul Haq's mission last month. The mojahedin veteran was captured and executed. Frustration was compounded by uncertainty about another tribal leader, Hamid Karzai, who entered southern Afghanistan three weeks ago on a similar mission to rally Pashtun opposition.Black Blade: The US has made assurances to Pakistan that they would not support the Northern Alliance in a bid to take political control of Afghanistan. The Eastern Alliance has Pakistani support. It is very likely that even if the Taliban and Al Qaeda Cults are removed, there will be civil war for decades as the feudal warlords continue at each others throats. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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