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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/11/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
ORO
(10/11/99; 23:30:59MDT - Msg ID:16124)
FOA
Thank you for passing on my posts.
I have been looking for professional criticism before I put them together as a publishable article series.
Which reminds me, I need to reply to Yellin' of Troy.
Black Blade, it may be the case that the Russian stockpiles have been depleted, but I think that stockpiles are whatever size the Russians need the buyer to believe them to be.
gidsek
(10/11/99; 23:24:04MDT - Msg ID:16123)
From Bill Murphy
Subject: John D. Meyer - An Open Letter to the Gold Mining Community/ Sir Harry Schultz
Sent: 10/11/99 10:32 PM
Importance: Normal
Le Metropole members,
John D. Meyer, GATA Treasurer, has served
commentary at the Matisse Table entitled,"An Open
Letter to the Gold Mining Community."
"Several months have passed since we last wrote to you.
The months have been filled with the bitter and the
sweet. Certainly the Bank of England announcement on
May 7th was a painful period for the gold community.
The "reign of terror" intensified as June approached
and the bears' siege continued to hold us hostage
throughout the summer. Then on Sunday September
26th the world of gold was stunned by the announcement
of the European central banks. In one dramatic move
the "reign of terror" was broken. For
GATA it has been a defining moment validating our cause.
The power of the advance has furnished the clearest
evidence to date of how aggressively the
gold market has been manipulated."
Cafe members and internet,
Some public credit is coming my way. I would like you to
know what a time consuming and courageous effort that my
colleagues, John Meyer and Chris Powell, have put into
GATA.
Our credibility grows mightily every day. Much of it is
do to their efforts. We have become lifelong friends as
a result of our trench warfare like battles. They are
great guys and gentlemen of the highest calibre.
They have some company. Sir Harry Schultz, the newsletter
wizard of Switzerland and Monaco, has been one of our
staunchest supporters right from the gitgo. What a class
act he is and, boy, is he ON THE MONEY!
The following is from Sir Harry's latest newsletter.
Gold
Glitters a Gain!
Oh, how sweet it is! After years of immoral & illegal
manipulations by bullion dealers, bullion banks &
bullion brokers, aided bycertain govts, gold broke
loose. The price-fixers haven't given up; they still
don't want a free mkt for gold, but they know they're
in for a battleroyal. There is so much to tell I'm in
the same position as with Y2Kreports. I've got 1000
pages of notes, but limited space, so (as with Y2K)
I'll suggest (below) how U can get more info & how
to keep up on the dailygold in-fighting. It's a very
exciting, bloody battlefield I assure U. Thestage was
being set for a price breakout before the Euro central
banks (CB)made their dramatic announcement that CB's
would freeze/limit gold sales &halt gold loans for 5
yrs. The news ricocheted around the world in minutes
& bullion burst its 20-year shackles. But, as Sunil
Madhok, of UAE, says on http://www.gold-eagle.com ,
"The CB's didn't do this to help gold bulls. But
they didn't want the bears slain (so they permitted
some sales). They had no option. Speculators (eg, NY
bullion banks & the anti-gold mafia) were hammering
gold with no regard to the massive supply/demand gap.
If CB'shadn't acted, the imbalances would have proven
catastrophic (in light of the huge short position)."
Pressure was also being brought to bear on Euro govts
by developing gold-producing nations. And GATA was
revealing the illicit tactics of the dealers/bankers.
UK's fluky gold sale was being exposed as a political
favour. Blair was in hot water.
Gold mines who hedged (sold gold forward or bought
puts) heavily, found themselves in trouble, as we forecast,
& we don't bleed for them; we said it was like eating
your young. Some were "forced" into it by bullion
banks who threatened them with lower credit rating
if they didn't. Blackmail! Shows how vicious the
greedy price-fixers are. Ashanti Gold was example.
Gold rose $8, but stock fell $4 same day. Margin
calls killed them, only avoiding bankruptcy, so far,
via the bankers "Red Cross." Goldman Sachs was
Ashanti's "brilliant" dealer who got them short
over their head. Barrick is another over-hedged mine
& stock is under-performing non-hedgers. Stockholders
screaming for true mkt exposure info.
The price-fixers keep feeding the press & producers
misinformation about the size of the gold short
position, hoping to jawbone the price down. Ted
Arnold apparently gets paid for trashing gold, as
he has for years. Other mistaken info (intentional
or otherwise) comes from Chase, Deutsche Bank,
JPMorgan, AIG, Goldman, says Bill Murphy of GATA
(Gold Anti-Trust Assn) who calls this "one of the
great financial scandals of all time." CNBC/CNN give
lots free airtime to gold bad-mouthers, but won't
let Murphy speak. Of course, TV is owned by insiders.
Freedom of the press has always meant freedom for
insiders to press their case. For true stats on gold
mkt, contact John Hathaway at the Toqueville Gold
Fund & Caeser Bryan at Gabelli Gold Fund.
For daily update on the gold war, download free at
popular http://gold-eagle.com , & subscribe to GATA
website, the attack force for gold freedom at
Lemetropolecafe.com or US fax: 413.528.6903. GATA
also needs contributions for its anti-trust fight
against price-fixers. 2 Hslms sent big cash last mo.
Thank U. Need more. If U want goldfreedom &
goldhigher, send $. •Murphy foresees $600 gold a bit later.
Says Fed is biggest worry; the price-fixers want Fed to
intervene; report is they already have, selling gold
futures. But gold genie is out of bottle, & aside from
setbacks, it's unlikely the gold bull mkt can be
stopped. As a chartist I note, basis London PM fix,
a pullback to 289 would be a 50%normal technical
retracement of recent up-swing & a great buy-more spot.
But U'd have to place orders now, not after the event.
Traders hope for pullback to 300-310. One day soon
U'll wake up to a $100 overnight rise, so don't be
naked out. Producer buy-backs are coming. •As with
Y2K, I've only used 10% of my notes, so please
access gold fax/web sites. The gold war has barely
begun. We'll win/lose battles, but win the war &
get a free gold price.
PS:
Bill Gates bought 10% of a silver company. Silver
will be exploding also.
Harry Schultz
http://www.ihsl.com
hsl.mentor@skynet.be
Tel +32 (for Belgium) 16 533 684 --
Fax +32 16 535 777
Postal address: HSL, PO Box 622, CH-1001
Lausanne, Switzerland
12 October 1999
<Le Metropole Cafe</A>
All the best,
Bill Murphy
Le Patron
-------------------
gidsek
TEX
(10/11/99; 23:21:14MDT - Msg ID:16122)
Now......It All Makes Sense
For a newcomer in the GOLD investing scene, the North/Hathaway links provided by AEL are worth their weight in GOLD. Now, everything is really starting to come together and I'm "gettin it". These will stay in my bookmarks for a long time. You guys are great.
gidsek
(10/11/99; 23:19:46MDT - Msg ID:16121)
from Kitco
Date: Tue Oct 12 1999 01:18
2BR02B? () ID#12079:
-
PRECIOUS METALS: Commitments: Gold data questioned
Oct 11--2211 GMT/1811 ET
.................................................................
BRIDGE UPDATE--
TOP STORIES:
REPEATS: METALS COMMITMENTS ANALYSIS: GOLD DATA QUESTIONED
New York--Oct 8--Today's Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report for gold futures showed virtually no change in speculative shorts, a highly unlikely scenario that has spurred the CFTC to review the data.
Silver shorts were nearly slashed in half while silver longs increased. Copper saw liquidation of both shorts and longs. ( Story 2099 )
-----------------
gidsek
elevator guy
(10/11/99; 22:59:42MDT - Msg ID:16120)
@canamami
Take heart, there is much shake up out there in financial land. Mines out of business means less supply, ECB announcement means less supply, great demand out there, all those lease rates didn't go up for nothing, and the bulge of calls are being held, until the dam breaks. $66 billion in losses will create attention, and don't forget Bill Murphy is still gunnin' for victory.
There are still some big chunks left that will hit the blades soon, so take heart!
onlychild
(10/11/99; 22:56:01MDT - Msg ID:16119)
Richard, Oregon (10/11/99; 20:45:39MDT - Msg ID:16105)
Richard, Oregon I believe that Hill B was referring to the fact that prior to 1982 pennies were solid copper. When copper reaches around 90 cents a pound the pre-82 pennies are worth more as scrap than as money. In 1982 pennies were made in both solid copper and in copper clad zinc. All post '82 are copper clad zinc. Your '64 UC may carry some numismatic value above their face value but it would be minimal at this time. Still, I would put them back for later. With copper at present levels (55 cents) pennies are worth more at face value than scrap. All the same I keep the pre-82's and ship the rest. You never know......
Chris Powell
(10/11/99; 22:54:31MDT - Msg ID:16118)
Stampede into gold shares imminent
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/250.html?
Latest dispatch from
GATA's Bill "Midas" Murphy.
canamami
(10/11/99; 22:39:10MDT - Msg ID:16117)
Physical Gold-RRSP's-Apologies to Forum
There were various posts today concerning whether physical gold could be placed in an RRSP. I had posted at one time that putting physical gold in an RRSP was legal, provided the policy of your RRSP trustee permitted this. However, I checked at the Revenue Canada site today, and I must advise my previous statement was wrong. According to Revenue Canada, precious metals are not a "qualified investment", nor is real property, though a mortgage on real property is ok. I apologize for misadvising the Forum; I thought I had read otherwise in a Revenue Canada publication. Another "gift" law from the tyrants who run Social Fascist Canada.
The POG is off to another poor start. Things better turn around soon, or negative sentiment will start driving the POG down, barring of course further events, or short covering, or massive dollar decline, etc., turning things around.
Black Blade
(10/11/99; 22:24:02MDT - Msg ID:16116)
ORO
I'm not sure what ZA is, is this Zambian? I know that there were assasination attempts on SA officials. Also, I thought that Russia by-product PGM stockpiles were nearly depleted and therefore that was the reason that deliveries were postponed. BTW, you have presented some great posts. Enjoy reading your thoughts.
Black Blade
(10/11/99; 22:15:55MDT - Msg ID:16115)
Bonedaddy
I don't know if you are from Montana, but I used to hunt elk in the Pintlar's south of Anaconda and at Lolo Pass depending on what tag I drew. I'm originally from Missoula. If you wish to see some great historical sites in the gold mining community you might want to check out Virginia City, with it's small placer mine museum, and Nevada City, east of Alder, Montana. Another place is Bannock (ghost town) south of Dillon, Montana. There is still a small placer operation at barton Gulch, south of Alder, Montana. All these places are near each other,and I might add that "blue ribbon" trout fishing streams are abundant. Wonderful country and great place to visit!
ORO
(10/11/99; 22:09:24MDT - Msg ID:16114)
GoldPEC and PlatPEC
Russia and South Africa are major Plat producers. FOA and others pointed out the gas for Euro deal with Russia.
The recent talk of the South African's "GoldPEC" and the above are, no doubt, the indications needed for the conclusion that ZA and Russia are on board with the BIS, though they are still allowing the IMF camp some slack and dangle the occasional carrot. Russia is probably angling for a "debt forgiveness for gold loans" deal, and is selling itself to the highest bidder.
I like pointing out that Russia changed its gold policies when their spy at the LBMA was exposed. I also like pointing to assasination of the ZA mines minister. The deliverers of IMF lies that sold their countries into debt will most likely be burried in simillar retribution all over the world. Watch for it. When these types of assasinations occur methodically throughout the third world. We will be able to see the progression of conversion to the side of the BIS.
Why must they be assasinated? Because they are internal scapegoats and the prospect of an inflaming public investigation that endangers all the power structure and may put the politicos in a posiiton of choosing between having to blast at the US and taking cooperative action with the rest of the fleeced, or facing severe internal turmoil. The assasination is in the way of giving a non-ignorable signal to the rest that there is a power shift.
Gold Power
(10/11/99; 21:57:36MDT - Msg ID:16113)
Newmont Hedge Position
If I understand what's being said correctly, I see a real problem in NEM's hedge position. Here's what they say:
"Secondly, we purchased puts for 2.85 million ounces to be delivered over the next two years at a strike price of $270 an ounce, which is essentially our break-even gold price. This is the price protection that McConvey is addressing.
Puts do not involve forward sales and we could have purchased them for cash. However, it seemed more prudent to finance the puts through the issuance of long-term call options, which is a hedge.
"Thus, our third transaction, the issuance of call options for 250000 ounces a year in 2004 and 2005 at $350 and ounce; 500000 ounces in 2008 and 2009 at $380 and ounce, and 50000 a month for 17 months beginning in March, 2008 at
$392 and ounce. If the gold price reaches these levels in those years, we have the option of rolling the contracts over into a spot deferred contract."
It appears to me that instead of buying put options, the company wrote call options. This in order to save money (the premium on the options.) The problem is that once the options are in the money, the company has unlimited liability. If gold goes to $1,000, NEM has to pay up to the party that bought the call.
The company says it can defer the contracts several years out. This is a statement of faith that the price of gold, if it spikes up, will certainly come back down at some point in the next several years.
Good luck.
This is my understanding of what was said by NEM. I am no expert in this field. Like others, because of what's happened the past two weeks, I am trying to get a handle on it and become an expert.
If there's someone here who sees a flaw in my understanding or explanation, will you be so kind as to show that to us.
Gold Power
Black Blade
(10/11/99; 21:55:51MDT - Msg ID:16112)
GD and Bonedaddy
GD, I've found that Ted Arnold is nothing more than a charlatan posing as a gold analyst. He used to work for M. Lynch as a gold analyst. He was let go to "pursue other interests". So he ended up at Prudential, eh? It is interesting that Lynch and their metals analysts are now pro-gold after Ted's departure. I wonder how long before he leaves Prudential to "pursue other interests" This guy has rarely got it right, so I wonder how it is that he is taken seriously. He predicted gold as low as $150 to $200. Come on now, that is well below the average total cost of production! I like this euphemism "to pursue other interests". I'm sure we all know what that means. On a side note, I have many friends who work for Newmont, they don't call it "Screwmont" for nothing.
Bonedaddy, nice! Since I returned from SE Asia, I have returned in time for deer season. I bagged a 4 point day before yesterday in my backyard with a nice little .257 Roberts, gift from an aunt who passed away a fews back. I used to live in Montana before the "beautifull people" arrived and took it away from us, all so they could make it their private play ground in summer before they returned to NY and CA. I've seen a couple of interesting bumper stickers lately, "Thanks for visiting Montana, now go back to California" and "Don't Californicate Utah!"
Gold Power
(10/11/99; 21:43:21MDT - Msg ID:16111)
COT Report -- Gold
The Town Crier writes: "Friday's Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report appears to have raised more questions than answers. The report showed virtually no change in speculative shorts, a highly unlikely
scenario given a 24.5% rally in gold prices over the reporting period. This has spurred the CFTC to review the data."
This shows that "no one" believes this rally. Mining companies, CNBC, the public, and even gold investors. I talked to one gold investor today whose stocks have gone up and who has made a pile of money on gold options already. He wants to sell and take his profits.
He doesn't believe this rally.
I talked to a mining company today to find out its hedge position. They said they are "fine until gold hits $385 and long before that happens they will make a new arrangement with the bank."
I told them that we may already be past the point of long before that happens. I also said that "having the bank make decisions" is exactly what the shareholders don't want.
They don't believe this rally. (I implored them to buy call options to hedge their hedges.)
"Things are not as before," said ANOTHER once upon a time. And from what has taken place so far, it looks like he is right on the money.
Another $70 rally in gold will throw many segments of the gold mining industry into complete chaos. The execs are sitting there hoping it won't happen.
They don't believe this rally and don't want to believe it, either.
My message for all the companies with hedged positions is this: "You had better know the answer to the question of `what happens to your company if gold hits $450 by Christmas.'"
Many don't and hope it won't happen.
The COT report also showed the Commercials to be net long. This is unprecedented after a rally of such magnitude. Perhaps the Commercials, the shrewdest players in the game, do believe this rally.
Widespread denial and disbelief in the face of what is manifestly a new reality is typical of human behavior.
I know that when the Dow made it to 1,200, I thought it would fall back soon. I didn't believe that rally. And, boy, look what happened.
If the CFTC reviews its data, I imagine it will find that its numbers are accurate. The masses don't believe this rally.
Gold Power
Bonedaddy
(10/11/99; 21:35:13MDT - Msg ID:16110)
Black Blade
Now you've got a great handle! I'd love to see SE Asia in my lifetime. The rural folks sound a lot like Montanans. I feel that I really shouldn't stray too far from the topic of gold, but guns and gold seem to go together like milk and cookies. I can understand a man who collects weapons. Holding an Oberndorf Mauser gives me much the same feeling as holding a gold coin from the same era. Boy, if only this thing could talk.
Al Fulchino
(10/11/99; 21:24:22MDT - Msg ID:16109)
Excuse this post///But I know this group values a good deal
www.alladvantage.com
If you go to the above link, you can sign on and start getting paid to surf the net. Currently, you can get paid 50 cents per hour<there is a limit currently> and you can get more money by referring friends. All you must deal with is an ad banner at the top or bottom of your screen. Now you can tell your spouse that these hours spent online are bearing fruit :) Also I am not giving anyone my ID number, not because I do not want you as a referral, but I because I wish you to see the offer at its face value.
Best Wishes
PS Hope you do not mind M.K.
megatron
(10/11/99; 21:19:55MDT - Msg ID:16108)
gold
I love all this rebellious talk!! After just reading Machevelli's The Prince, and Thoureau's Civil Disobedience,
I can't wait to see some SOB at a bullion bank get it good.
It seems the layers are being converted faster and faster.
Al Fulchino
(10/11/99; 21:18:37MDT - Msg ID:16107)
FOA///Post War Gold?
FOA? When you get a chance, I feel it is always appropriate to look further along in the chess game. I am nowhere near your understanding, yet I am also so much further along than I was. I wonder what strategies you see, or scenarios that will unfold, ***after*** this war. You and others may say to me, that I am jumping the gun, not having even engaged the enemy yet. I respect that view. However, it is never to early to realize that there always is another game or series to play. Thank you.
Goldspoon
(10/11/99; 21:06:24MDT - Msg ID:16106)
They must have liked my strategy on platinum or ORO's ???
http://www.kitco.com/platinum.graph.html
Note the time of the rise in platinum..if this continues..gold will watch and follow...eh FOA?.....Platinum + a bunch!
Richard, Oregon
(10/11/99; 20:45:39MDT - Msg ID:16105)
Hill Billy Mitchell (10/10/99; 8:01:01MDT - Msg ID:15967)
Hill B - please tells me more about pre-1982 pennies that are worth more than one cent. I have six rolls of uincirculated 1964's starring me in the face. I was about to just exchange them with my regular coinage, that I magically turn into gold each month. Please comment.
Richard, Oregon
(10/11/99; 20:38:58MDT - Msg ID:16104)
Peter Asher (10/09/99; 01:02:10MDT - Msg ID:15915)
Peter - First I want to apologize for the tardiness of this post. If it isn't one thing it's another.
I wanted to respond to your message regarding our little get-together at "Hidden Falls Retreat".
In retrospect, we had a great time! To me, much more precious that I realized at the time. The hours went by like minutes. You were right in comparing the relationship to that of old friends. Yes, and we found that we have much more in common with our fellow Goldhearts. Friendship, family, children, grandchildren, and good health. These were golden minutes in time. We each have the opportunity to acknowledge or swish away these little nuggets. I'm now choosing to enjoy more of them, but it's not easy for me. Work, work, work! Life's going by real fast these days and I don't see a slow down in my future, just more occasions to hug my daughter and grand-daughter (she's so sweet) just one more time. My son's are more of a challenge, but I'm learning. Robin's and your hospitality was most gracious and the Gandolf family enjoyable. We must do it again. Thank you.
Oh, by the way. . . . this Oregon weather is a treat. Minimal rain and still the nice warm sun to make outside work a joy. Enjoy the sun, the rains a comin'.
GD
(10/11/99; 20:28:55MDT - Msg ID:16103)
Hot of the press times two
SteveH, I guess great minds think alike.
GD
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 20:27:38MDT - Msg ID:16102)
After the Close: the GOLDEN VIEW from The Tower
This might be a brief report with many markets closed on holidays, but we never know until we go to hit the "send" button. In the U.S., the bond market and banks were closed for Columbus Day so that everyone could get out there and celebrate, or whatever Columbus Day calls for. Japanese financial markets were also closed today for a national holiday, and the Canadian financial markets were closed for their Thanksgiving Day.
In a fitting gesture, the American markets served up a big turkey...the Nasdaq closed at a record high (2915.95 +29.38 (+1.02%)) on moderate volume , and nobody cheered. The number of advancing issues narrowly edged out decliners, but the DOW lost a point-and-a-half on the day with new 52-week lows on the NYSE outpacing new highs 113 to 42.
While the stock market was caught up in its own little world on Wall Street, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gave a speech in Arizona before the American Bankers Association on the evolution of bank supervision. (Well, I guess now we know how those party-animal bankers celebrate Columbus Day.) The Chairman began his remarks with a reminder that the economic landscape is continually evolving, and the physician's admonition "First do no harm" might as well apply to bank supervisors, too.
Mr. Greenspan said, "significant changes are in the pipeline. Today I would like to sketch the framework that is now being developed, growing out of work at the Federal Reserve, at other U.S. banking agencies, and by our colleagues abroad. The outline of this framework was presented in a consultative document released by the Basel Supervisors Committee in June. The details are preliminary, but the concepts are beginning to congeal and deserve your close attention, especially if you wish to influence the eventual outcome of the deliberations."
"The desirability of limiting moral hazard, and of minimizing the risks of overly burdensome supervision and regulation, has motivated those of us associated with the Basel exercise to propose a three-pillared approach to prudential oversight. This approach emphasizes, and seeks to strengthen, market discipline, supervision, and minimum capital regulation."
"In addition to emphasizing more effective market discipline and making supervisory assessments of bank capital adequacy more risk-focused, the June consultative paper highlights the need to make regulatory capital requirements-the third pillar of prudential oversight-more risk-focused as well. In recent years, it has become clear that the largely arbitrary treatment of risks within the current Basel Accord has distorted risk-management practices and encouraged massive regulatory capital arbitrage. That is, our rules have induced bank transactions that have the effect of reducing regulatory capital requirements more than they reduce a bank's risk position. Consequently, the fundamental credibility of regulatory capital standards as a tool for prudential oversight and prompt corrective action at the largest banking organizations has been seriously undermined."
"It is, I believe, important to reiterate my earlier comment that bank supervision and regulation-especially capital regulation-are necessarily dynamic and evolutionary. We are striving for a framework whose underlying goals and broad strategies can remain relatively fixed, but within which changes in application can be made as both bankers and supervisors learn more, as banking practices change, and as individual banks grow and change their operations and risk-control techniques. Operationally, this means that we should not view innovations in supervision and regulation as one-off events...We should be planning for the long pull, not developing near-term quick fixes. It is the framework that we must get right. The application might initially be bare-boned but over time become more sophisticated....We are endeavoring to develop a program that is the least intrusive, most market based, and most consistent with current and future sound risk-management practices possible, given our responsibilities for financial market stability."
The general consensus held here in The Tower that the "evolution" described by the Chairman may certainly appear as a natural continuum when the history books record the events, but this has all the earmarks of a watershed event, lifting this old patchwork system out of the primordial ooze to the golden dawn of a new day. We shouldn't hesitate to inform our new readers that Alan Greenspan has been a long-time advocate of monetary gold. We hope you have yours in hand.
Speaking of gold, it did trade today around the globe in spite of the holidays. Having been taking down in price when trading opened on the Hong Kong market, buying support kept a floor under gold at $315. It traded sideways through London in a $4 band to close near the top of that band in NY. Spot prices were last quoted at $318.20, demonstrating resiliance to trading pressures in this eleventh market day following the huge percentage move in the wake of the European central bank announcement of a moratorium on gold sales and leasing programs. As we continue to accumulate gold here at The Tower, we are thankful that the world remains slow to stir to this wakeup call.
We'll turn things over to Bridge News for their comments by traders on the scene, and interject as we deem necessary...
NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold dn $1.3 after London sales
By Tina Petersen and Ross Allen, Bridge News
Washington--Oct 11--COMEX Dec gold futures settled down $1.4 at $320.3
per ounce amid quiet holiday trading. Traders said gold moved lower
following London and continued rangebound throughout the day in thin
trading conditions.
With Japan on holiday, and some US financial markets closed for the
Columbus Day holiday, today's session was very quiet. "Most of the
customers and financial guys are out for the holiday," said a trader. "The
large players have not been active today. With the banks shut, trading
volume is very mild."
Dec gold had traded as low as $317.5 in Access trade but recovered as
spot gold was able to hold support at $315 early this morning in London.
The early selling was said to have come from specs. "We just took what
London gave us and we stayed with it," said a trader.
Sentiment in the gold market is becoming more ambiguous after the
initial reaction seen immediately after the "gold-sales moratorium,"
announced Sep 26 by European banks at the IMF meeting in Washington. Most
said they expect gold to continue in its consolidation phase then increase
steadily to $360-380 by the end of the month.
Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion trader at LFG Bullion S ervices, said that
there is still significant short covering that needs to be done.
One bullish trader said he expects Tuesday to mark the beginning of
the next break out to the upside. He said it "would be easy" to have
another $20-30 rally, possibly bringing gold up to $350. "That number
would make sense if gold makes another leg up," said a trader. He said
$340 is a long-term chart support level.
Most said they don't expect continued downward pressure since the
market has been well supported on the dips. "Gold has held its ground
well," said a trader.
One-month lease rates on gold remain strong at over 4%.
1-month 4.1080%
2-month 4.2100%
3-month 5.1740% [...in an interesting development, quotes were not provided for longer-term lending...the 6-month and 12-month rates. A glitch, or is something afoot?]
Friday's Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders
report appears to have raised more questions than answers. The report
showed virtually no change in speculative shorts, a highly unlikely
scenario given a 24.5% rally in gold prices over the reporting period.
This has spurred the CFTC to review the data.
[Anyone who thinks gold can only rise on futures short-covering is gravely mistaken, and is missing the bigger story...the unravelling gold-loan operation. Pricing based on futures requires no involvement of gold supply, but instead responds to the buying or selling pressures on these same contracts. We'll keep beating that dead horse until people realize it is not the beast to be riding...depending upon your objectives.--TCrier]
Many market players said they were surprised there was not more short
covering during the rally. One trader explained that there was "an awful
lot of good call buying done in the market, which offset a majority of the
shorts. Traders were stuck not knowing what to do, and they rushed to buy calls
and held their shorts to see what would happen."
Under this scenario, the net-short fund position in the futures ring
would have been hedged somewhat in the options ring; if true, Tuesday's
Commitments of Traders report for futures and options will show a
significantly lower net-short position than that revealed by the
futures-only report.
By purchasing call options to offset a pre-existing short futures
position, a trader would hold an essentially flat total position above the
options strike, while remaining short below the strike. This would be
accomplished for only the cost of the option premium.
For example, if a short-positioned trader could have purchased Nov
calls to offset his or her upside risk on Sep 20, the day before the
present rally started gathering momentum, these calls would have closed at
$1.20 per ounce and the short position would still stand below the strike.
This options position would have been worth $61.70 per ounce at the
settlement today and would have offset the significant losses on the short
futures position.
David Meger, senior metals analyst with Alaron Trading, noted that the
report only details futures market activities, not the cash market trading
which accounts for a large portion of the gold market.
This cash market is key importance, "so the futures commitment report
is not all that revealing," he said.
Most of the short positions in the gold market generally were created
in the lease market, and hence would not be shown in the commitments of
traders report as these lease shorts must be offset in the cash market. He
said the cash market is not nearly as transparent, so "the problem is we
don't know whether we are getting all the data."
***
(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
---
Delivery intentions were announced this morning for two additional October gold contracts, bringing the total so far for the month to 2,506. The month began with only (approximately) 2,000 contracts in open interest, and this relative level of delivery intentions makes us raise an eyebrow. Stats from last Friday's trade reveal that open interest in October contracts stood at 113 going into the weekend. By contrast, open interest in the December futures contract was 117,650. Total OI in COMEX gold futures through June 2004 is 213,028.
With the Columbus Day banking holiday, it should come as no surprise that there was no movement of metal into or out of the ScotiaMocatta or Republic National Bank of New York vaults which serve as the official COMEX depositories. Total gold inventory stored there is 920,637 ounces.
In our Fifth Horseman watch, the ride continued in a late short-covering rally that helped the November crude contract settle up 37c at $21.27 to end a span of several consecutive losses, and Friday's steep sell-off. A senior US Energy Department official poured cold water on recent comments by President Clinton in regard to the possibility of the U.S. selling crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter rising heating oil prices. Also adding support to today's prices were comments by Iran's OPEC governor, Hossein Ardebili, who expressed confidence oil prices would "hold stable and even improve." He expected oil stocks will fall by 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 1999 and by 3 million bpd in the first quarter next year, and dismissed reports which suggested Iran was producing over its OPEC production ceiling. Further in that regard, on Sunday Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh stated "OPEC will even extend its current production ceiling beyond March 2000 if the fundamentals of the market warrant (it)." Bridge News reported a source today as indicating the Saudi Arabia was also open to the possibility of an extension of the production cuts beyond March.
And that's the view from here...after the close.
GD
(10/11/99; 20:25:48MDT - Msg ID:16101)
Hot off the press
This just in from Bill Murphy:
Subj: BULLETIN!! - EXPLOSIVE GOLD MARKET NEWS/ GOLDSHARE STAMPEDE COMING
Date: 10/11/1999 9:58:04 PM Eastern Daylight Time
From: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com
To: gdomka@aol.com
Le Metropole members,
In my opinion, the following news stories are,in toto,
explosive news for the gold market. I will explain after
you have read them. In essence, they validate what Midas
du Metropole has been telling you all year!
October 11 - UBS turns screw on gold firms
Swiss bank acts on debts as hedging contracts go sour
By Dan Gledhill
UBS, the Swiss investment bank, is thought to have
tightened the screw on struggling gold producers by
calling in debts on outstanding derivatives
contracts.
Many mining companies took out these complex
derivative positions earlier this year in order to
hedge themselves against further falls in the gold
price. However, gold's sudden recovery in the last
fortnight means that these contracts are now heavily
in the red.
The concern about the ability of gold producers to
make good these losses is believed to have prompted
UBS to take the unusual step of requiring early
margin payments. Among the companies affected is
thought to be Ashanti, whose derivatives exposure is
reported to total $450m (£270m). UBS's credit
exposure to Ashanti alone is said to be $61m. Other
investment banks affected by the malaise in the gold
market are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and
Credit Suisse First Boston.
Fears that the gold sector has suffered enormous
losses in the derivatives market drove the share prices
of producers sharply lower last week. Ashanti,
the Ghanian producer which has entered into merger talks
with Britain's Lonmin, fell heavily, as did Canadian
miners Cambior and Barrick Gold. There is also concern
that a number of hedge funds, which had sold gold
short to prosper from lower prices, have been caught
out by the sudden rally.
Gold's recovery, to close on Friday $70 above this
year's low at $320.15 an ounce, was prompted by the
decision of European central banks two weeks ago
to suspend the selloff of their reserves. It brought
to an end four years of almost continuous decline,
which saw the price of the precious metal plummet
from $415 to $250 an ounce. Analysts believe that many
gold producers, assuming gold would continue to
depreciate, took out derivatives positions
so large that they would actually profit from
lower prices.
One derivatives specialist said: "I think that,
judging by the events that have unfolded in the market,
the reasonable explanation is that some mines
have aggressively over-hedged."
It is unclear whether the banks that took out such
positions with mining companies and hedge funds decided
to cover their risk elsewhere, or chose to
leave their books open in the belief that the gold
price would come back. UBS declined to comment on
its exposure.
Most analysts believe that gold's current strength
will continue as customers with bearish derivatives
positions are forced to buy gold to square their books.
However, they remain convinced that by the end of the
year the commodity's downward spiral will resume.
"Gold won't subside suddenly," said the derivatives
specialist. "It is possible that we will see further
rallies, but I think we will still find that when it's
all over, gold will move below $300 before the end
of the year."
Lonmin, formed from the old Lonrho mining company,
already owns 32 per cent of Ashanti and announced on
Tuesday that it is negotiating to acquire the
remaining 68 per cent. End.
The disinformation crowd just won't quit. How can anyone
who knows anything about the gold market say that reigning
in gold loans will eventually be bearish for gold?
London (Dow Jones) October 11 -- Central Banks are
selling gold in order to prevent a further sharp rise
in prices from causing a major financial crisis,
according to Ted Arnold, analyst at Prudential Bache
Securities Ltd.
Many funds and banks sustained heavy losses over the
past two weeks as gold surged after 15 European central
banks stunned the market by saying they would cap
sales of gold for the next 5 years.
If gold prices continue to rise sharply they could
cause major losses at U.S. and European investment
and bullion banks and cause a domino effect that
could lead to a major financial cisis, Arnold said.
"Central banks, according to our sources, have acted
swiftly to prevent a repeat of an LTCM-type of crisis
by making sure that gold prices remain in a tight range.
Enough selling is done by agents of the monetary
authorities involved to cap gold...around the $330 area
basis spot London while the floor is very solid in
around the $315-$316 (a troy ounce) area basis spot,"
Arnold said.
Central bank "regulation" of the bullion market always
seems very far fetched to most observers, but it is a
"cheap" option compared with the potential cost of
bailing out banks and generally injecting liquidity
into an economy if there were a full-blown financial
crisis, he said.
A relatively small amount of gold would be needed to
sell towards the top end of a range and then buy back
at at the lower end. The one thing that is absolutely
certain, however, is that no central banks is going to
annnounce that it is acting in the market to achieve
stable and range-bound prices, said Arnold. End.
A quote from highly regarded Barry Riley in Saturday's
London Financial Times:
"A gigantic short position - some say 10,000 tonnes
in aggregate - has been built up during the past few
years and it has created a new threat of instability
related to derivatives."
Lordy, Lordy! This news is a horror show for the
shorts. The conservative FT has a columnist who is
now touting the gold loan numbers of Frank Veneroso.
They are more than twice the GFMS numbers that gold
producers, hedge funds and the general media have
acknowledged to the investing world.
The Swiss are so concerned about the gold loan
situation that they are turning up the heat on the
producers over them. The European central banks
have already told the world that they were going to
curtail their gold lending. Now this statement.
Then, we have the Abby Joseph Cohen of the gold
industry - "the bear of bears" the past few years -
telling the gold world that the floor for the price
of gold is around around $316. What happened to all
his $220 bearish forecasts? This is staggering information.
Think on these things. If you are a producer and the
"bear of bears" suggests $316 is where the central banks
will buy, why not cover all your forward sales? Why stay
short for a $2 downside? Makes no sense at all not too. If you
are a hedge fund, why stay with your gold loan at 4%
to 5% gold lease rates with the understanding that
the central banks can lose control of this situation?
The manipulators already have!
This is bombshell news. Since it makes no sense for
producers or hedge funds to stay short, most should
now begin to cover. Ted Arnold is one of the most
visible "Hannibal Cannibal" apologists of all. He
now admits that the gold market situation is so
explosive that $315-$316 is the downside. Gold closed
today around $318. That is the MEGA BEAR talking.
What do you think the MEGA BULLS like me are saying tonite.
GATA has been talking about market manipulation since
January. The Ted Arnold type's mocked us over and over.
Now, he comes out and says the market has to be manipulated
or there will be financial havoc. What crap! It is his
ilk that has caused financial havoc on the gold industry.
miners out of work, gold company bankruptcies, gold
shareholder's investments wiped out, etc.
I have said over and over that before this all ends, one
of the biggest financial scandals in the history of
the United States will reveal itself. How clear can it get?
The manipulating crowd has lost control of their collusion
game and now they are crying to Daddy for help. What a
bunch of wimps! This is disgusting and calls for a
full scale Congressional investigation.
On April 26, I met with James Saxton, Chairman of the
Joint Economic Committee, and told him that this was
going to happen. I also met with Chris Frenz, his
staff director and their chief economist, Bob Kelleher.
I then met with Jim Clinger, Senior Counsel of The
House Committee on Banking and Financial Services.
Also there was Greg Wierzyski of the Capital Markets
Committee. I invite all of the Cafe to contact them
to find out if what I am telling you is so
I told them exactly what Ted Arnold is telling the
world now. The difference is that Ted Arnold is trying to
tell you that the gold maket will be capped. He
obviously was told to put this out by the "Hannibal"
camp that is scared to death that the gold price could
explode and wipe them out.
This is crazy. Oil just doubled in price. Did we have
to hear of nonsense like this? What is wrong about
gold doing the same? I cannot stress it enough. The
gold market was manipulated by the bullion dealers.
They told their clients the fix was in. The clients
believed them. The "Hannibals" were using wrong
supply/demand information and now have lost control
of their gold market cartel. They listened to the
discredited GFMS and not Frank Veneroso.
I can't say what the price of gold will do tomorrow,
but the dye is cast. Uptown we go. Shareholders
around the world will demand producers cover their
hedges. Hedge fund managers that have borrowed gold,
will have to come to grips with the "new" reality
and cover too.
Just curious. What central bank wants to just throw
away its valuable gold reserves at these prices?
Rock and roll time.
When the general investment world understands this,
there will be a STAMPEDE to buy the shares of gold
companies that have not overly hedged. The junior
golds and top quality exploration gold and silver
companies are going to go bonkers. In my last Midas,
I just suggested that soon the little gold companies
that have been given up for "mortsville" will
begin acting like internet stocks. This news could
do it.
Just look at what is happening to my biggest holding -
Golden Star Resources. A few days ago I brought it
up to you as my favorite. It was 15/16. Today it closed
at 1 7/8.
Does that seem impressive? Not to me. When I owned
it at 21, Paul Stephens, renowned portfolio manager
of the Conrarian Fund, said in a Forbes article
he thought this stock could go to 50 to 100. That
was him saying that - not me.
He made that statement because GSR has found so
many exciting gold resources and may have done
what no other exploration company in history did.
At least, that is what Frank Veneroso thinks.
What is important here is there are many great
junior gold companies and gold exploration companies
out there that will go ballistic in price when "The
Maddening Crowd" realizes the price of gold will
inevitably skyrocket. The bears even admit that
now. When central government takes its foot off
the breaks, bye bye.
Support your favorite small gold company. Tell your
friends about them "Now" before they go to the moon.
Their is easy money on the Table here.
Within 2 weeks, The Cafe will open its Chat room. In
the Chat Room, we will have various Conferences
(threads to some) in which you will be able to
learn and talk about your favorite gold and silver stocks.
You will be able to get answers to many of the questions
you might have from knowledgable investors around
the world.
Janet Whitman of Dow Jones did a great story today for
her wire service called, "Gold Gains In One of Biggest
Gold Rushes in History." Janet mentiones
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com. This is a big breakthrough
for us in the mainstream press. The Cafe is growing
by leaps and bounds. And as I reiterated often, we
are being fed the best information in the world on the gold
market going because gold family people want
GATA to succeed.
I urge all of your friends to read my last Midas and
the two pieces by Reginald Howe and John Hathaway that
are up at the Kiki Table and Dos Passos Table. In my
opinion, that is the gold market story in a nutshell.
"Vox Populi Vox Dei"
All the best,
Bill Murphy
Le Patron
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
Bedtime in the mid-west. Good Nite All. Sleep tight and hope the Goldbugs are right.
GD
Goldspoon
(10/11/99; 20:20:35MDT - Msg ID:16100)
FOA..ORO..Leigh
Thanks for your input...a hungry mind is a terrible agony if left unfed.......
SteveH
(10/11/99; 20:18:53MDT - Msg ID:16099)
repost -- a good one.
www.lemetropolecafe.com
repost:
Le Metropole members,
In my opinion, the following news stories are,in toto,
explosive news for the gold market. I will explain after
you have read them. In essence, they validate what Midas
du Metropole has been telling you all year!
October 11 - UBS turns screw on gold firms
Swiss bank acts on debts as hedging contracts go sour
By Dan Gledhill
UBS, the Swiss investment bank, is thought to have
tightened the screw on struggling gold producers by
calling in debts on outstanding derivatives
contracts.
Many mining companies took out these complex
derivative positions earlier this year in order to
hedge themselves against further falls in the gold
price. However, gold's sudden recovery in the last
fortnight means that these contracts are now heavily
in the red.
The concern about the ability of gold producers to
make good these losses is believed to have prompted
UBS to take the unusual step of requiring early
margin payments. Among the companies affected is
thought to be Ashanti, whose derivatives exposure is
reported to total $450m (£270m). UBS's credit
exposure to Ashanti alone is said to be $61m. Other
investment banks affected by the malaise in the gold
market are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and
Credit Suisse First Boston.
Fears that the gold sector has suffered enormous
losses in the derivatives market drove the share prices
of producers sharply lower last week. Ashanti,
the Ghanian producer which has entered into merger talks
with Britain's Lonmin, fell heavily, as did Canadian
miners Cambior and Barrick Gold. There is also concern
that a number of hedge funds, which had sold gold
short to prosper from lower prices, have been caught
out by the sudden rally.
Gold's recovery, to close on Friday $70 above this
year's low at $320.15 an ounce, was prompted by the
decision of European central banks two weeks ago
to suspend the selloff of their reserves. It brought
to an end four years of almost continuous decline,
which saw the price of the precious metal plummet
from $415 to $250 an ounce. Analysts believe that many
gold producers, assuming gold would continue to
depreciate, took out derivatives positions
so large that they would actually profit from
lower prices.
One derivatives specialist said: "I think that,
judging by the events that have unfolded in the market,
the reasonable explanation is that some mines
have aggressively over-hedged."
It is unclear whether the banks that took out such
positions with mining companies and hedge funds decided
to cover their risk elsewhere, or chose to
leave their books open in the belief that the gold
price would come back. UBS declined to comment on
its exposure.
Most analysts believe that gold's current strength
will continue as customers with bearish derivatives
positions are forced to buy gold to square their books.
However, they remain convinced that by the end of the
year the commodity's downward spiral will resume.
"Gold won't subside suddenly," said the derivatives
specialist. "It is possible that we will see further
rallies, but I think we will still find that when it's
all over, gold will move below $300 before the end
of the year."
Lonmin, formed from the old Lonrho mining company,
already owns 32 per cent of Ashanti and announced on
Tuesday that it is negotiating to acquire the
remaining 68 per cent. End.
The disinformation crowd just won't quit. How can anyone
who knows anything about the gold market say that reigning
in gold loans will eventually be bearish for gold?
London (Dow Jones) October 11 -- Central Banks are
selling gold in order to prevent a further sharp rise
in prices from causing a major financial crisis,
according to Ted Arnold, analyst at Prudential Bache
Securities Ltd.
Many funds and banks sustained heavy losses over the
past two weeks as gold surged after 15 European central
banks stunned the market by saying they would cap
sales of gold for the next 5 years.
If gold prices continue to rise sharply they could
cause major losses at U.S. and European investment
and bullion banks and cause a domino effect that
could lead to a major financial cisis, Arnold said.
"Central banks, according to our sources, have acted
swiftly to prevent a repeat of an LTCM-type of crisis
by making sure that gold prices remain in a tight range.
Enough selling is done by agents of the monetary
authorities involved to cap gold...around the $330 area
basis spot London while the floor is very solid in
around the $315-$316 (a troy ounce) area basis spot,"
Arnold said.
Central bank "regulation" of the bullion market always
seems very far fetched to most observers, but it is a
"cheap" option compared with the potential cost of
bailing out banks and generally injecting liquidity
into an economy if there were a full-blown financial
crisis, he said.
A relatively small amount of gold would be needed to
sell towards the top end of a range and then buy back
at at the lower end. The one thing that is absolutely
certain, however, is that no central banks is going to
annnounce that it is acting in the market to achieve
stable and range-bound prices, said Arnold. End.
A quote from highly regarded Barry Riley in Saturday's
London Financial Times:
"A gigantic short position - some say 10,000 tonnes
in aggregate - has been built up during the past few
years and it has created a new threat of instability
related to derivatives."
Lordy, Lordy! This news is a horror show for the
shorts. The conservative FT has a columnist who is
now touting the gold loan numbers of Frank Veneroso.
They are more than twice the GFMS numbers that gold
producers, hedge funds and the general media have
acknowledged to the investing world.
The Swiss are so concerned about the gold loan
situation that they are turning up the heat on the
producers over them. The European central banks
have already told the world that they were going to
curtail their gold lending. Now this statement.
Then, we have the Abby Joseph Cohen of the gold
industry - "the bear of bears" the past few years -
telling the gold world that the floor for the price
of gold is around around $316. What happened to all
his $220 bearish forecasts? This is staggering information.
Think on these things. If you are a producer and the
"bear of bears" suggests $316 is where the central banks
will buy, why not cover all your forward sales? Why stay
short for a $2 downside? Makes no sense at all not too. If you
are a hedge fund, why stay with your gold loan at 4%
to 5% gold lease rates with the understanding that
the central banks can lose control of this situation?
The manipulators already have!
This is bombshell news. Since it makes no sense for
producers or hedge funds to stay short, most should
now begin to cover. Ted Arnold is one of the most
visible "Hannibal Cannibal" apologists of all. He
now admits that the gold market situation is so
explosive that $315-$316 is the downside. Gold closed
today around $318. That is the MEGA BEAR talking.
What do you think the MEGA BULLS like me are saying tonite.
GATA has been talking about market manipulation since
January. The Ted Arnold type's mocked us over and over.
Now, he comes out and says the market has to be manipulated
or there will be financial havoc. What crap! It is his
ilk that has caused financial havoc on the gold industry.
miners out of work, gold company bankruptcies, gold
shareholder's investments wiped out, etc.
I have said over and over that before this all ends, one
of the biggest financial scandals in the history of
the United States will reveal itself. How clear can it get?
The manipulating crowd has lost control of their collusion
game and now they are crying to Daddy for help. What a
bunch of wimps! This is disgusting and calls for a
full scale Congressional investigation.
On April 26, I met with James Saxton, Chairman of the
Joint Economic Committee, and told him that this was
going to happen. I also met with Chris Frenz, his
staff director and their chief economist, Bob Kelleher.
I then met with Jim Clinger, Senior Counsel of The
House Committee on Banking and Financial Services.
Also there was Greg Wierzyski of the Capital Markets
Committee. I invite all of the Cafe to contact them
to find out if what I am telling you is so
I told them exactly what Ted Arnold is telling the
world now. The difference is that Ted Arnold is trying to
tell you that the gold maket will be capped. He
obviously was told to put this out by the "Hannibal"
camp that is scared to death that the gold price could
explode and wipe them out.
This is crazy. Oil just doubled in price. Did we have
to hear of nonsense like this? What is wrong about
gold doing the same? I cannot stress it enough. The
gold market was manipulated by the bullion dealers.
They told their clients the fix was in. The clients
believed them. The "Hannibals" were using wrong
supply/demand information and now have lost control
of their gold market cartel. They listened to the
discredited GFMS and not Frank Veneroso.
I can't say what the price of gold will do tomorrow,
but the dye is cast. Uptown we go. Shareholders
around the world will demand producers cover their
hedges. Hedge fund managers that have borrowed gold,
will have to come to grips with the "new" reality
and cover too.
Just curious. What central bank wants to just throw
away its valuable gold reserves at these prices?
Rock and roll time.
When the general investment world understands this,
there will be a STAMPEDE to buy the shares of gold
companies that have not overly hedged. The junior
golds and top quality exploration gold and silver
companies are going to go bonkers. In my last Midas,
I just suggested that soon the little gold companies
that have been given up for "mortsville" will
begin acting like internet stocks. This news could
do it.
Just look at what is happening to my biggest holding -
Golden Star Resources. A few days ago I brought it
up to you as my favorite. It was 15/16. Today it closed
at 1 7/8.
Does that seem impressive? Not to me. When I owned
it at 21, Paul Stephens, renowned portfolio manager
of the Conrarian Fund, said in a Forbes article
he thought this stock could go to 50 to 100. That
was him saying that - not me.
He made that statement because GSR has found so
many exciting gold resources and may have done
what no other exploration company in history did.
At least, that is what Frank Veneroso thinks.
What is important here is there are many great
junior gold companies and gold exploration companies
out there that will go ballistic in price when "The
Maddening Crowd" realizes the price of gold will
inevitably skyrocket. The bears even admit that
now. When central government takes its foot off
the breaks, bye bye.
Support your favorite small gold company. Tell your
friends about them "Now" before they go to the moon.
Their is easy money on the Table here.
Within 2 weeks, The Cafe will open its Chat room. In
the Chat Room, we will have various Conferences
(threads to some) in which you will be able to
learn and talk about your favorite gold and silver stocks.
You will be able to get answers to many of the questions
you might have from knowledgable investors around
the world.
Janet Whitman of Dow Jones did a great story today for
her wire service called, "Gold Gains In One of Biggest
Gold Rushes in History." Janet mentiones
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com. This is a big breakthrough
for us in the mainstream press. The Cafe is growing
by leaps and bounds. And as I reiterated often, we
are being fed the best information in the world on the gold
market going because gold family people want
GATA to succeed.
I urge all of your friends to read my last Midas and
the two pieces by Reginald Howe and John Hathaway that
are up at the Kiki Table and Dos Passos Table. In my
opinion, that is the gold market story in a nutshell.
"Vox Populi Vox Dei"
All the best,
Bill Murphy
Le Patron
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
ORO
(10/11/99; 20:07:45MDT - Msg ID:16098)
Platinum and Oil - Goldspoon
Platinum is a necessary element for the production of refined oil derivatives. It is also necessary for most food hydrogenation processes (margarine, modified starch), practically all electro separation, car exhaust, and more.
The first thing an oil cartel would think of as a secondary element for an oil squeeze to retaliate against the opening of the strategic oil reserve is the stopping of the platinum supply, not by physically removing it, but by buying it off the market. The plat market is completely a Swiss and Japanese market.
Will Plat push gold? actually, ANY commodity has within it the possibility of wrecking the US banks. They operate on the rocket principle. They do not cover their positions directly and are allways short commodities in order to capture the assured decline of the time premium. They believe they can print up as many contracts as they wish, to drive the price in the desired direction. They do this in the stock market with individual stocks and the indexes themselves. There is allways a rise in the stock market because of this interference of the "masters" and there is allways a decline in commodities. The typical business of the bank masters is printing out commodity calls and stock index puts. They are allways short commodities, and allways long the SPoos. The modus operandi is this: if the stock market drops, borrow money, buy futures. The Fed is guarantor to the lending bank. In commodities, short some more if it goes up. The buyer wants price protection and buys calls. The producer sells futures for the non contracted production. Very often, knowing that there is going to be increased demand in a shorted commodity, the banks will short further while simultaneously buying calls from hedge funds attracted to the extra implied volatilities. The main point is to minimize the payout on the options, and be short time premium.
This, for the most part, is why large moves happen in both commodities and stocks right after option expiration, and why these markets are perpetually pushed in opposite directions.
Banks abhor buying options and being long commoditty futures, because it is like paying interest. Therefore, they only cover when in extremis. Often they would deal with each other to palm off risk through "netting", or borrow more money to maintain their positions.
It is like saying
"Hey, this noose is tight, give me more rope"
FOA
(10/11/99; 20:06:08MDT - Msg ID:16097)
(No Subject)
USAGOLD (10/11/99; 18:39:21MDT - Msg ID:16088)
FOA! From the World Gold Council: "We have now entered a new era..."
Michael,
Thanks. If only a few more parts of the puzzle come into view this will be all over the media. Anyway, I say Congratulations to the USAGOLD FORUM and all who post and read there. This is truly a one of a kind.
Have to leave now. Thanks all FOA
GD
(10/11/99; 20:01:47MDT - Msg ID:16096)
Newmont Hedge Position
Hi all,
I have not been able to post since Labor Day but I have been reading almosts all of the posts every day since Memorial Day. Boy what an education!!
Yesterday in Bill Murphy's Midas he stated that he heard a rumor that Newmont was holding a surprise conference call for today. As a shareholder I was interested if it was to address their hedge positions. I talked to Jodi at NEM Investor Relations this a.m. (she sounded like she was up all weekend). She said (perturbed) that the conference call was just a rumor. So I proceded to ask if she had any info published about their hedge positions. She pointed me to the 10K. She then asked if she could fax it to me . I agreed. The fax looked more like a press release than an accounting report. Judge for yourself.
I hope their 5 percent exposure to downside gold prices is the extent of it.
Also, I emailed Bill Murphy regarding the factthat there was no conference call. He suggested that the shorts may have started that rumor. In addition, the McCovey referred to in the Newmont letter was one of the Hannibals.
Well I am glad that I finally have something to contribute to this grand forum. Please accept this as a token of my appreciation to you all and the great education provided here.
"We have entered three transactions; lets look at the impact
First, we entered a prepaid forward sales contract, essentially a gold
loan, in which we agreed to deliver 161,100 ounces of gold per year in years
2005,2006, and 2007. For this we received $137.2 million, which was used to pay
down our revolving credit debt. Furthermore, we will receive a minimum of
$300 per ounce plus all additional revenue up to $380 per ounce at the time
of delivery. Yes, that means we have capped you upside on a small fraction
of our production should the gold price exceed $380 five years from now.
If we are fortunate enough for that to happen, you'll be making so much money
on
the rest of the gold we produce that this should not be a concern. We
reduced our total outstanding debt by 11 percent by committing less than 1
percent of our reserve. The imputed interest on the gold loan is LIBOR +
134 basis points, which is 200 basis points lower than we could have achieved
in the bond market. So we termed out the debt in the most efficient way
possible.
Secondly, we purchased puts for 2.85 million ounces to be delivered over
the next two years at a strike price of $270 an ounce, which is essentially our
break-even gold price. This is the price protection that McConvey is addressing.
Puts do not involve forward sales and we could have purchased
them for cash. However, it seemed more prudent to finance the puts through
the issuance of long-term call options, which is a hedge.
Thus, our third transaction, the issuance of call options for 250000 ounces a
year in 2004 and 2005 at $350 and ounce; 500000 ounces in 2008 and 2009 at
$380 and ounce, and 50000 a month for 17 months beginning in March, 2008 at
$392 and ounce. If the gold price reaches these levels in those years, we
have the option of rolling the contracts over into a spot deferred
contract.
The put/call contracts create a floor price for one-third of our production
over the next two years while potentially committing only 4 percent of our
reserves. All three transactions therefore involve the commitment of only
5 percent of our reserves, leaving us the most leveraged of any company to
the gold price.
I hope this gives you a better understanding of what we are doing and
reaffirms our desire to maintain the upside potential in our stock.
Jack Morris,
Vice President, Investor Relations"
GD
FOA
(10/11/99; 19:54:41MDT - Msg ID:16095)
Reply
elevator guy (10/11/99; 19:02:16MDT - Msg ID:16091)
am I to understand that Gold Fields is uniquely positioned to weather the onslaught of dollar devaluation, due to some bullion holdings? Or am I delusional, thinking that any paper investment could outperform gold, as the rug is ripped
out from under our world of financial instruments?
Hello Elevator Guy,
Gold Fields LTD. (GOLD) bid for physical at the last BOE auction. They even got some 12% of it. To my knowledge they were the first mining company to openly support the "bullion advocate" community by buying gold instead of just optioning more of it. Yes, they do have a tiny hedge. It is nothing for them. Their actions were openly out of line in the BB sector.
I purchased their stock and presented then as an example of a gold mine for "bullion advocates" to purchase. Symbolically, I burned the stock to indicate I would never sell it at any price. In some cultures, burning a property deed means you will never sell the land. I believe a good number of physical gold owning entities are and will follow this concept in support of Gold Fields. In addition, any other mining company that buys in it's hedge by purchasing gold will see the same activity. Perhaps a bit late now.
EG, sometimes we do things not to make money. Better to support what is right, no? I walk in large foot prints, come what may!
FOA
elevator guy
(10/11/99; 19:50:00MDT - Msg ID:16094)
An unanswered question....
Mr FOA, I hope you don't think my question was rhetorical. It was sincere. Unfortunately, I often sound kind of pompous and oratorical, which sometimes backfires on me.
GD
(10/11/99; 19:30:25MDT - Msg ID:16093)
test
test
FOA
(10/11/99; 19:24:47MDT - Msg ID:16092)
Reply
PH in LA (10/11/99; 18:25:20MDT - Msg ID:16083)
Platinum Lease Rates
While you are here, can you say anything about the exorbitant lease rates currently being published for platinum? Three-month rates are up over 9% to 68%(?) today. Sounds like time to start leasing out my platinum Visa card. Any takers? Yet through all this, the price has not really reacted.
PH,
Goldspoon's Platinum horse is something else. I drugged it when he wasn't looking and it still ran?
We all have to look at the metals rental rates with a questioning eye. During normal conditions, such high platinum rates (and even gold rates a week back) would indicate severe "risk" in loaning out metals. Today, all of these rates are way out of any "operational contract usage". I speaking of major volume usage here, not the small dealer fabricator level. Let's call it the "money gold" arena!
Anyway, the entire metal funding market is practically frozen in low volume. The rates could just as well say 200% and wouldn't mean anything.
Right at this minute, rates aren't moving the markets because all the "workouts" to cover the exposure are concentrating on the "bookkeeping" side of the equation, paper gold and to a much smaller extent paper platinum. If the firms cash capital isn't enough to cover the "workouts', then someone must go to the physical markets and outright "buy physical" or "borrow physical". Here is where the "big sweat" is happening "right now"! For many months there hasn't been enough excess physical supply for buying to cover any "non rollovers", so they borrowed it against the firms capital base. Now, no one wants to lend "new" and everyone wants to at least convert to a "self liquidating" term. So, if you read my post (yesterday?), if "official" money doesn't come in and cover the loses or sell down the paper price, the workouts are going to fail, big time! In that event the rush will be to buy physical because even at huge rates, big risk is keeping supply small for lending.
Now to answer your question, the Platinum lending market is small and physical owners are watching gold (sorry for that Goldspoon). If gold breaks to the upside, now, it will cascade into an avalanche of wiped out lenders (the actual physical lenders and the naked short kind) and kill all
credibility of the lending market. For the next two weeks or so if gold doesn't fall , forget the rates, we have escalated far beyond any point of significance for them.
Spot buying and selling of physical is still happening. Even though some bottle necks are there. However, once we move a little further over the edge of the cliff, physical may freeze up too! Note: I saw where some mine management's are now "actively" working with the BBs to try and work out a process to get the price of gold down! I wrote that this "mindset was coming soon" in one of my posts not long ago and someone over here thought it was "out of order". In other words such private discussions would never make mainstream! It did!
On the road FOA
elevator guy
(10/11/99; 19:02:16MDT - Msg ID:16091)
A re-posted question for FOA. (Lets see if I can catch him today!)
elevator guy (10/10/99; 13:05:43MDT - Msg ID:15985)
A question for FOA
First, let me say, that from your insights, it is clear to me that the only place to stand against the downstream devaluation of the dollar is with the rock of real physical gold ownership.
Now concerning the "salmon" of leveraged investments, gold stocks, jumping upstream with "7 league boots", am I to understand that Gold Fields is uniquely positioned to weather the onslaught of dollar devaluation, due to some bullion holdings?
Or am I delusional, thinking that any paper investment could outperform gold, as the rug is ripped out from under our world of financial instruments?
Thank you!
Canuck
(10/11/99; 18:51:40MDT - Msg ID:16090)
Sir Town Crier
Thanks for the link.
In viewing the document further I obviously missed the message, I apologize.
Please allow latitude for the 'novices' amongst us.
SteveH
(10/11/99; 18:45:22MDT - Msg ID:16089)
I'll let him know (Leroy) ...and...
Bill Murphy said thanks.
USAGOLD
(10/11/99; 18:39:21MDT - Msg ID:16088)
FOA! From the World Gold Council: "We have now entered a new era..."
http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/Wr991006.htm
"Do my eyes deceive me or is "this new gold market" now
being understood!!"
-- FOA
Hi FOA...For the past four days I have been working on the November (Thanksgiving issue) of News & Views -- a 12 pager!
In the course of my research, I happened on the link above -- an analysis which brought a smile to my face as I encountered a phrase I knew very well......
In bold headline:
A NEW GOLD MARKET......
"The WGC believes the Washington Agreement radically transforms the gold market for a number of reasons:"
You never know who's reading USAGOLD FORUM, FOA.
You better believe its being understood and more and more are stopping by here to find out what in the world is going on with gold.......
I know I speak for all when I say Thank You for being here, FOA. My best to Another......I think if WGC is going to use yours and Another's stuff, you ought to get credit for it.
Leigh
(10/11/99; 18:36:13MDT - Msg ID:16087)
Sir Goldspoon
Goldspoon, if you made all that up, then I really AM in awe! What a scientific mind you have! Wow! You've been quoted on Kitco and Gold Eagle, and they're mulling over your hypothesis. I think the European Central Bank needs to hire you as a strategist.
FOA
(10/11/99; 18:31:20MDT - Msg ID:16086)
PH, in a min.
Be back
Canuck
(10/11/99; 18:30:29MDT - Msg ID:16085)
flierdude: PPI / CPI
Thanks for info, I've got a feeling Friday is kick off day.
Might do something radical like dump some dough into a junior, some poor sole with lots of gold and no start-up capital.
Thoughts?
FOA
(10/11/99; 18:29:33MDT - Msg ID:16084)
Comment
SteveH,
Tell Leroy to watch oil. We are going to know that the political game has shifted to Europe if the producers cut production again in response to opening the "strategic reserve". If that happens, from whatever level gold is trading at that time, it will explode. After that, this whole story will come out.
We watch. FOA
PH in LA
(10/11/99; 18:25:20MDT - Msg ID:16083)
Platinum Lease Rates
Greetings FOA.
While you are here, can you say anything about the exorbitant lease rates currently being published for platinum? Kitco doesn't even post a rate for the near month which makes me suspect that it has acquired one digit too many for Bart's chart. (ie. over 100%) Three-month rates are up over 9% to 68%(?) today. Sounds like time to start leasing out my platinum Visa card. Any takers? Yet through all this, the price has not really reacted. Is there anything substantial to Goldspoon's scientific postulations?
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 18:21:24MDT - Msg ID:16082)
Sir Canuck
http://www.usagold.com/whithergold.html
It cannot be recommended strongly enough that you, and all others with a desire to enhance monetary awareness, click the link associated with the passage you've questioned. You will see interest as more of a partnership fee as described...a sort of rent paid for the immediate use of wealth from someone who needs it to enhance productive income.
It is interest in conjunction with fractional reserve lending that pushes the boundaries of socially tolerated fraud. In no place does the author condone fractional reserve lending, nor does he imply that gold would be in two pockets at once.
Set aside an hour and give this one the attention it deserves.
PH in LA
(10/11/99; 18:15:27MDT - Msg ID:16081)
IMHO
Goldspoon:
IMHO=In My Humble Opinion
Also: IMVHO=In My Very Humble Opinion
etc.
FOA
(10/11/99; 18:13:17MDT - Msg ID:16080)
Events
http://www.newaus.com.au/econ137gold.html
USAGOLD and ALL:
I just read this link as presented above. Do my eyes deceive me or is "this new gold market" now being understood!! YES! My friends, events are progressing and change is in the air! I find it all so incredible that only a few years ago most people invested in the gold industry as a clean "supply and demand" product that also offered a little "gold money" / "inflation protection built in.
Manipulation was only for those "on the fringe of reality"! Yet, a small group choose to look at it as the true "Political" metal it has always been. Michael Kosares, Bill Buckler (privateer) and a host of others understood the real realm of "gold money" and "gold power".
Strangely, it wasn't until "this new gold market" started killing the paper investments that other people really stood up and asked questions. So I ask, if the political gold manipulation had driven gold paper higher, would anyone have bothered to search for truth for the average investor? Hmmm!
Don't get me wrong, today is a good day for "understanding". Because, as "we watch this new gold market together" this "now exposed manipulation" isn't going away. Truly, what makes this such a good day is the fact that the "ECB/BIS is now going to "manipulate" the dollar market in the goldbugs favour. Nothing more, nothing less. Indeed, anyone that has read Mr. Kosares's books and seen the posts on this forum (especially the Hall of Fame site) has seen this coming for some time. Truly, we know there are several more acts in this play. It's not just about the gold industry being vindicated or a group of major gold bears losing face (and money). It's about a changing way of "Western" life and most of us are going to experience it.
Still, I must openly congratulate Mr. Bill Murphy and thank him for all his great efforts. He alone has placed himself in harms way in order to "get the word out". It's working.
I know that only a few more moves on the world economic chess board will bring Another out writing again. If what I understand is true, the most interesting part of this game lies "dead ahead".
We are on the road................. FOA
PS: ORO, I read Earthquake and had to send it to a US professor I know. He is now reading all
of your posts. Very good writing!
Canuck
(10/11/99; 18:08:07MDT - Msg ID:16079)
Dorchester
Physical within RRSP
Please do not quote this post but I have heard (I think from other 'Canucks') that by Canadian RRSP law physical cannot be held within a RRSP.
canamami may be able to elaborate.
Jade
(10/11/99; 18:00:22MDT - Msg ID:16078)
The Buldge at the Dec 390 Call Contract.
As most of us know, there is a rather large buldge at the Dec 390 Gold Call that ranged at about 60,000 contracts prior to the melt-up. Its rather interesting that the buldge came down about 5,000 contracts for the next two days after the melt-up and another 5,000 contracts over the next couple of days. The buldge stands at about 45,000 contracts right now. Now I would think that a greater number of these contracts would have been sold, but thats not the case. Someone thinks that these contracts will see more upside or they have been traded off to some sorry bullion bank or miner. Whoever bought this bulkey 390 position must be a rather big player with the same insight that brought Goldman to grab the 20 plus tonnes of physicaal from Comex prior to the "event".
Canuck
(10/11/99; 17:49:14MDT - Msg ID:16077)
T.C. : #16036
'Not only can the owner of gold earn a return in gold on his holdings even under the regime of irredeemable currency, but gold is the only form of tangible wealth that can be lent out at interest and that is in constant demand as such...'
This statement sounds like the writer condons the 'lending'
of gold?
Goldspoon
(10/11/99; 17:47:50MDT - Msg ID:16076)
Leigh...
Sorry M'Lady.....
i'm laughing sooo hard i can hardly type.... i mistook your meaning....
It's all just a jigsaw puzzle i'm just extrapalating basic info avalible to everyone...to its logical conclusion...
Example... if one takes the info(last six months) provided by FOA to be true....and put all recent price moves of Platinum/Gold/Silver including lease rates, controled news releases (reading between the lines) consider history (look where we've been to understand where we are.....
As a kid i made up a game that i called "Rules" that me and my brother would play..The game went like this... 1. Make up a game but don't let anyone know the rules (using a deck of cards or whatever..doesn't matter) 2. You are the only player of this game. 3. The other people (my brother) vice/versa (myself) HAS to discover the rules of the game being played by observing the other play the game....When the rules of the game being played are discovered then...you switch places....and play again...
Scientists do this all the time with nature to discover its laws.(rules)....once a law is thought to be discovered you test it....Science 101
Example "If this law be true... then if i do such and such then this should happen" If your predictions come true based on the law then it is viewed as conformation of your law. (You know the rules).....This is all i'm doing....playing an old childhood game "Rules"...........
Think about watching someone playing Solitare and you don't know the rules...Watch what they do with each card...See a pattern??? Ask your self... What was the rule? Assume then you know the rule until a card played violates your assumed rule...Then take this new information observed and formulate a new rule... repeat this process until no cards played violate the rules and you have formulated and you have won the game!!!
The game is being played right before our eyes...taking FOA's thoughts at face value and all of the other info i can find..... i am just playing "Rules" and stating what i think (intuition also plays a big role) what will happen next based on what i've already seen .... if this doesn't happen as stated.... i then know i have yet to know the rules and will take the new info and formulate the new rule.....etc....
By the way!!! Anyone, what does IMHO mean???
flierdude
(10/11/99; 17:33:36MDT - Msg ID:16075)
CPI/PPI
Reverse that PPI on the 15th, CPI on the 19th
flierdude
(10/11/99; 17:33:16MDT - Msg ID:16074)
CPI/PPI
Reverse that PPI on the 15th, CPI on the 19th
flierdude
(10/11/99; 17:31:13MDT - Msg ID:16073)
CPI/PPI
CPI Friday 15th
PPI Tuesday 19
andrew the kiwi
(10/11/99; 17:01:35MDT - Msg ID:16072)
a junior miner to watchon the ASX
http://www.helix.net.au/
helix resources NL is an unhedged australian junior explorer with the largest holdings of platinum exploration licenses in Australia. Having been in a 50/50 joint venture with Acacia Resources, helix also has some significant joint venture activities with BHP Resources. Their share price the last time platinum was 'in play' was $A10, currently at $A0.31c. The last run up in interest three years ago on the back of a significant gold discovery in the gawler region saw its share price rise to $A4.99.
The company's web site is shown above. A recent share reduction scheme reduced the no. of shares by 20% to 38 million. They also have cash in the bank. Perhaps one to watch in the Australian market.
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 16:59:47MDT - Msg ID:16071)
Tiger's Robertson Overhauls Hedge Fund to Reverse Losses
http://www.bloomberg.com/pfc/moncol.html?s=646c457eb390d050a645d7fb602fe1cb
Not only can the government change the investment rules on you, but so can the fund you invest in. After the world's second-largest hedge fund, Tiger Management LLC, saw its net assets dwindle over the past year from $22 billion to $8 billion, starting in March Tiger will no longer let investors make quarterly withdrawls of money in its largest funds, limiting their opportunity to exit to only twice a year. And according to one of Tiger's original investors, it would seem that the "performance" of an investment in Tiger itself is not so much based upon the performance of the individual investments that Tiger makes, but rather upon the willingness of investors to invest in Tiger. "Most of the short-term money has run off and that was one of the things causing poor performance."
What a supreme example of non-productivity. If you get out in time, you're rich; if you don't, the public institutions will see fit to bail you out. That era, thankfully, appears to be coming to an end.
Leigh
(10/11/99; 16:51:48MDT - Msg ID:16070)
Goldspoon
Sir Goldspoon! Don't snicker at my question! It was a SERIOUS question, asked with the GREATEST respect. You probably know stuff that very few of the rest of us do, and I was expressing AWE. I guess your sources are classified.
Gold Dancer
(10/11/99; 16:41:40MDT - Msg ID:16069)
I have a concern...
about lease rates and gold. When Buffett bought silver there was a rush to buy and lease rates went way up. Silver went up but then came back down. I suspect Buffett leased his silver back to the market at those high rates.
What is to keep the FED from leasing to the market several
thousand tonns of gold at, let's say 15% interests rates.And how about the private owners of gold. At the right lease rate they will loan out gold also. The only people to benefit from the silver rise was Buffett and maybe a couple of day traders if they were lucky.
Could this happen to Gold? Over in a flash with only the Fed and Private holders and those in the know benefitting?
Gold Dancer
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 16:29:13MDT - Msg ID:16068)
Snapshot of Global Currencies
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=f6e30e87f95b2a48163c68c907d8c171
A small point can bring international currency into sharp focus when it touches your own experience.
Traveled through Mexico not quite a decade ago, and the peso was valued at 3 per dollar. Haven't been back since, and have had no reason to monitor that particular exchange rate, but jumping out of this report was the current exchange rate...nearly 10 pesos per dollar. And consider this: the same dollar today doesn't buy nearly the basket of goods that it did that many years ago, so those poor peso-holders have experienced double losses...with losses against a "standard" that has also experienced losses in purchasing power. Think about it. How much interest would you have to earn on a Mexican bond to truly be getting "richer" in peso terms? And if this were possible, why wouldn't everybody do it instead of working for a living? Eternal prosperity thanks to the modern miracle of high interest rates on irredeemable currency! A one-year treasury bill will get you 23%. Retirement, here we come.
Goldspoon
(10/11/99; 16:26:49MDT - Msg ID:16067)
Leigh...
Hey, Leigh! hope your feelin better! That's funny..Platinum 101...snicker...snicker...
apdchief
(10/11/99; 16:19:50MDT - Msg ID:16066)
CPI/PPI
due friday morn at 0830 eastern. forecast cpi =0.5%, core rate +0.4%...we'll see.....
Canuck
(10/11/99; 16:01:24MDT - Msg ID:16065)
To: Steve H.
Inflation
Saw your NAPM post a couple days ago; thank you.
Interesting note, each month has increased.
Canuck
Canuck
(10/11/99; 15:59:18MDT - Msg ID:16064)
PPI / CPI
Does anyone have the dates for upcoming numbers?
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 15:50:00MDT - Msg ID:16063)
Tea leaves
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991011/mj.html
With half the world on holiday, most currency futures end up against the buck (except Australia's dollar) on GLOBEX trade.
Leigh
(10/11/99; 15:48:42MDT - Msg ID:16062)
Goldspoon
Hey, Goldspoon, how do you know all this stuff? Platinum 101....
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 15:45:36MDT - Msg ID:16061)
Camdessus says crisis well behind, focus on growth
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991011/l8.html
International Monetary Fund head Michel Camdessus reaffirmed the IMF's improved outlook for global growth in a speech at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation:
"In most countries, there seems to be no immediate threat to one of the great achievements of the 1990s: continued low inflation underpinned by sound macroeconomic policies. In these circumstances, it seems appropriate for the balance of policy decisions in most countries to be slanted in favour of growth, so as to sustain the global recovery as the United States slows."
Essentially a thinly veiled plea to world to continue borrowing money into existence.
And in regard to efforts aimed at reform of the international financial and monetary system, he said the progress so far was geared toward alleviating the plight of the world's poorest countries.
Goldspoon
(10/11/99; 15:21:11MDT - Msg ID:16060)
SteveH
http://www.kitco.com/platinum.graph.html
Steve, yes! Gold's fundamentals are excellent.. there is a very nervous herd of gold shorts hoping and waiting for a correction in gold so they will excape having to cover...and are trying to influence the price of gold with all means necessary....
The Gnomes in Zurick Know this.. Platinum's explosion in it's price will be the thunderbolt that stampeeds the nervous shorts to cover in Gold!! Gold is the big volume money prize the Europeans are after..and platinum is the tool they have chosen to push the next move up!!
Platinum/Gold/Silver is sometimes refered to as the "Wolfpack"... and travel together..WHY? Speculators lump them together as a "sector group" and treat them as such..just as sector stocks move together in the S&P....
It takes less money to drive or manipulate platinum so if your intrest is to change world currency dominance via Gold/Euro... you can give gold a boost by driving platinum... After having cut of the gold supply... The Europeans do not own all of the worlds gold and an embargo of gold is leaky... But Platinum!!! with a little money (a few billion) you could drive it to the moon!! and help pull gold along in the draft... Again, their intent is not to corner platinum (which they will) it is to set fire to the "Wolfpack" and thus... gold shorts and force them to cover... Via forcing them (the BIG MONEY shorts) to dump dollar securites to chase gold higher...and make FOA/ANOTHER's Prophesy correct....
The general publics attention on gold is via Y2K... the perfect oportunity... Many of the masses will blame the fall of the dollar and the rise of Gold on Y2K..This they can grasp... The Europeans want to fast forward events so the Gold Wars play out in the Y2K window of oportunity thus excape some measure of blame for staging an economic attack on the US....
Look at the link ...Zurick is where the Platinum pressure is coming from not NY..... But everyones hand will be forced Platinum is a metal so important to defence that the US has a defence stockpile..industry as we know it would grind to a halt after a prolonged shortage....
Platinum.. the perfect weapon in the GREAT GOLD WAR OF 1999..............
watcher
(10/11/99; 15:04:39MDT - Msg ID:16059)
gold
Hi all .Looking at the list of NY bankers holding Loans on ashanti is revealing. For the past several years as gold declined the bankers pressed the mining co's to sell forward to protect risk to the downside while loaning them money to get them further and further in hock just to keep operations running during the bear market.Bear is a good name for it as the weak are or have been eaten by the strong bear. The on going bull market will ironicly destroy many of those that should have benefitted the most.
As they sort out this mess the deals that will be forced upon the unfortunate gold companies that tried to survive (many were to weak or vulnerable not to hedge )will be seen to benefit the lenders . Truly, the proverb " The borrower is servant to the lender" is being played out in this gold market today.
I put forth some conjecture a few months back that this was being perpetrated by the fed to get control of as much gold as possible before the price would be allowed to go up.
If this is what is happening then we will not see any significant pull back ,accept to shake out traders and weak longs along the way. The trap was set the last few years and to have a pullback of significance and length would allow the shorts and mining companies to cover which would not be their desire.
A bailout of bullion banks will then be the next major piece of this plan. Its only paper that the will be offered
and not gold.That gold has been sown up by the central banks for many years to come.The bailout will not hurt the price of gold because much of the gold has been spoken for
for years to come and their will truly be a supply shortage.
The price of gold will escalate to heights not seen as the perception change and the truth manifests itself thru time
Also in this scenerio a high price will exclude most from benefitting if they are not in already.
We may also surmise that the mining companies that have not fallen into this trap will benefit greatly as this market goes forward. If the govt's decide to tax the profits of these companies such as in the oil sector there will still be unimaginable profits.
The exploration discoveries will be rewarded even above the majors as this bull market will give new meaning to speculation.Even in this last bull market 95 to 97 when a promising drill program was started the stock would move up 25 to 150 percent just on the possibility of a discovery.
The new pricing of gold will make even small discoveries profitable which will feed this frenzy which has been similar in the past to the internet mania as investors find an easy market to make money .The difference being that there will be real profits and real earnings to be had which is inherent with gold from this time and on
Hope so, for all those here will be way ahead of the pack which will come very soon. Count on it. Go gold.
SteveH
(10/11/99; 14:51:54MDT - Msg ID:16058)
Margins again!
www.kitco.com
repost:
Date: Mon Oct 11 1999 16:13
AzusaGold (Nymex Raises Margins on Gold Futures for Second Time in 2 Weeks) ID#255250:
Copyright © 1999 AzusaGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
New York, Oct. 11 ( Bloomberg ) -- The New York Mercantile Exchange said it will raise margins for gold
futures by 25 percent after the close of trading today, the second increase in two weeks.
Margins on gold will increase to $2,000 from $1,600 for clearing members, members and hedgers and to $2,700
from $2,160 for speculators. The increase comes as gold futures climbed 19 percent in the past two weeks after
European central banks agreed to limit their gold sales and lending over the next five years. Gold futures have
risen 6 percent since margins were doubled on Sept. 29.
Margins are deposits traders must make when buying or selling futures contracts to help ensure their obligations
will be met.
Gold for December delivery fell $1.40 to $320.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the Nymex.
Oct/11/1999 16:01
For more stories from Bloomberg News, click here.
( C ) Copyright 1999 Bloomberg L.P.
SteveH
(10/11/99; 14:26:18MDT - Msg ID:16057)
Al
It isn't just the Second, it is all. Where do you draw the line. OOps.
Goldspoon,
Why will Platinum make gold rise? Aren't gold fundamentals good enough?
Goldspoon
(10/11/99; 14:19:32MDT - Msg ID:16056)
***Platinum Volcano Pressure****
http://www.kitco.com/lease.rate.html
Platinum has become a volcano, whose eruption is eminent..the internal pressure of platinum rose again today the 1 month lease rate is so high it is no longer quoted.. The two mnoth lease rate is as of today 65.5100% +9.9787.
The total warehouse stocks @www.nymex.com is 1,357.
The number of contracts open for JAN 2000 is a whopping 13,821!!
***Caution every one... Stand Back!!! she could blow anytime now!!!!! and take Gold with her!!!
All she needs is just a
Al Fulchino
(10/11/99; 14:11:18MDT - Msg ID:16055)
Journeyman and Steve H
Journeyman, If I understood yoru example of French persuasion. It was too actually encourage a fiat currency alongside a precious metals currency. Is that correct? If so, then I would add that my example was to point out that in times of serious instability, any type of currency would be *not* of first importance. And that the might of a gun would be of more persuasion than gold, no matter its buying power.
Steve H, I admire you for your concern about our Second Ammendment.
YGM
(10/11/99; 13:53:29MDT - Msg ID:16054)
@Dorchester
http://www.centralfund.com/
Here is the link and the books (financials) are open to viewing. Good idea for RRSP's------YGM.
JCTex
(10/11/99; 13:49:53MDT - Msg ID:16053)
SteveH
Many moons ago, I was on the state drug commission. Willy and "that woman" had just been elected president. One of my fellow commissioners was talking to a young druggie [around 17 or 18 years old]. He laughed and said that he hoped gun control would pass. When asked why, he replied, "because then I will have a gun, and you won't."
Folks had better really think about that one: when trouble comes, the cops can't help [in time], and the lawyers won't.
Enjoy all of your posts and efforts. Thanks
nugget101
(10/11/99; 13:42:08MDT - Msg ID:16052)
RRSP and gold?
Dorchester.
Why do you care about a paltry tax savings (if any)? You are trying to substitute paper for paper. The Canadian dollar has fallen quite a bit, how do you know that it will be viable when you retire or that those investments that you are counting on will have value? Physical gold is your safety net and has true value.
During 1929 many saw their life savings vanish as their investments lost value. It took a world war and 50 years before the market regained what it had lost. As in '29, the market is speculative and "overly exuberant". (Also, did you know that a money market doesn't have to maintain the $1.00 share price? So how safe is that government paper?)
IMHO a economic shakeup is occuring, I've put my bet on a horse that once plodded but will soon race the wind. Grab the reigns and at least buy some physical.
Jon
(10/11/99; 13:37:29MDT - Msg ID:16051)
Info for Dorchester
Central Fund Of Canada, symbol CFA, Amer. Stock Exchange, holds solely precios metals.
Dorchester
(10/11/99; 12:40:39MDT - Msg ID:16050)
p.s.
Thanks in advance for any light that can be shed on the matters in my last post. Dorchester
Dorchester
(10/11/99; 12:23:10MDT - Msg ID:16049)
physical gold and RRSP's
http://www.gordonpape.com/lri90.html
It's been months since I posted, since whenever I had unanswered questions, inevitably one of the regulars would address my concerns. I am grateful to all here for their level-headed assessment of global finances, for whenever I had my doubts about the pro-physical position, inevitably there would be an intelligent and convincing argument returning me to my own pro-physical bias, which now of course I am exceedingly grateful for.
One of my favourite Canadian investment advisors, Gordon Pape, has a chapter on gold in his latest book, which can be found at the above link. There are two issues in this chapter which I hope can be addressed by the knowledgeable posters here. One is of general interest to gold investors, the other of particular interest to Canadians with investments in registered retirement savings plans.
Pape points out that Canadians may not hold physical gold in their RRSP's, and so it seems to me that the only way to get around this would be to invest in a mutual fund that is heavily invested in physical. Does anyone here know of such a fund, and whether Canadians would be eligible to buy it? Alternatively, does anyone know of another way to use one's RRSP savings to invest in physical? It seems a shame to have the very money that is supposed to cushion us in our old age be beyond the reach of investment in bullion.
Secondly, Pape also points out that it is possible to have one's broker make one's physical purchases, and store them in the institution's private vaults. One never gets to personally hold the gold in this arrangement, but gets a certificate for the gold held on one's behalf. There are certain tax benefits, and conveniences, to operating this way. Having the kind of job that often makes it impossible for me to handle the transactions personally in a timely way, this is quite tempting. But, I am wondering if there are any real risks that one might be caught in a paper trap, i.e., not being able to get one's hands on the physical gold one has bought. Could a broker default on giving you your physical gold, or selling it for you on your behalf?
Here's an exerpt from Pape's book (Low Risk Investing in the '90):
"Certificates and storage accounts: The best way to own bullion or gold coins directly is through a certificate or storage
account. You get a piece of paper recording your holdings instead of the actual gold, so it's not quite as satisfying, but
it's quick, cheap and easy.
A storage account operates in much the same way as a stockbroker's account. Once you've opened a storage account,
you simply call the dealer and place your order for wafers, bars, or coins -- whichever you prefer. The dealer makes the
purchase for you and places your gold in insured storage in a bank or trust company. You receive twice-yearly
statements, showing exactly what you own.
If you want to sell part or all of your holdings, you advise the dealer accordingly and it's taken care of -- much the same
as a stock transaction. You can also take delivery of the gold itself at any point if you wish, although there will be
additional charges for doing that."
(snip)
"A gold certificate is the equivalent of a share certificate. It confirms ownership of a specific quantity of the metal."
beesting
(10/11/99; 11:57:12MDT - Msg ID:16048)
Ashanti--How did this happen?(see USAGOLD report for today 10/11/99)
Gold Power,enjoyed your#16006 #15989 on share holders equity in Gold mining operations.
Canuck #16007, I too have a balanced diversification of assets including some Gold mining shares.
On Ashanti---In my opinion the worldwide rules concerning "spot"pricing of Gold changed in Feb.1996 when "spot" rose to $417 per ounce.I think a relativity few BIG players( CB's & Bullion Banks)at that time started a concentrated effort to lower the world "spot" Gold price slowly, to avoid panic, by dilution of paper Gold contracts(supply & demand--by flooding the market with paper Gold contracts).It turned out they were very successful,over a 3 year period lowering "spot"from $417 per ounce to just over $250 per ounce.
What were the consequences of this action??
Prior to Feb.1996 Gold mines were mostly owned by shareholders who exchanged money for partial ownership of the mines(as explained by Gold Power #15989)...Now when price of product(Gold)declined to the point where it took more borrowing to keep the operation running smoothly(operating expenses) forward selling of Gold in the ground(hedging)between Gold mines and buyers of large amounts of Gold(Bullion Banks)started to flourish.
Which brings us to Ashanti....Because the Bullion BANKS supplied the cash, and made the rules concerning the hedging contracts,they have preemptive rights(first priority on assets)....BEFORE SHAREHOLDERS!
Therefore if a mine defaults(Ashanti) known assets(Gold in the ground) are divided among lien holders(banks shareholders..etc.) by priority....most of the time shareholders get nothing!
Iv'e been there more than once!
Sooo..IMHO even tho paper Gold investments may bring tremendous profits at todays depressed prices,it's still....BUYER BEWARE....whenever you spend money!
Physical Gold the safest and surest preservation of untaxed long-term wealth,the world has ever known....beesting
AEL
(10/11/99; 11:03:22MDT - Msg ID:16047)
north/hathaway
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/6457
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/6457
Gold Bears Are Now Trapped; John Exter's 1974 Prophecy Is Coming True
http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorm0031.shtml
Back in 1974, former Citibank VP John Exter predicted what began
three weeks ago: the search for liquidity. I did not believe him
then. I did not see y2k. For the past two years, I have believed him.
Exter said that the world's monetary system is an inverted pyramid of
debt. At the bottom is gold. When men search for liquidity in the
face of defaults in the top layer, they will sell the higher layers
of assets and buy the next lower layer. . . .
(Gary North's comments, followed by another lengthy and interesting
Hathaway commentary...)
fox
(10/11/99; 10:59:49MDT - Msg ID:16046)
fox
anglogold is doing buisiness
11/10/1999 ANGLOGOLD has announced that it has launched a bid to acquire
ACACIA RESOURCES, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in
1994 when SHELL AUSTRALIA floated off its mineral assets - gold
assets including four operations:SUNRISE DAM (100%
owned);BODDINGTON (33.33%), PINE CREEK (100%) and TANAMI (40%),
and one of Australia's premier gold mines. The offer an exchange
of 3.5 ANGLOGOLD shares per 100 ACACIA and free from all
conditions following the dispatch of ANGOLGOLD's offer to
shareholders plus SARB and FIRB approval. The offer representing
a premium of 24% on the ACACIA price, and a value of A$3.30 per
ACACIA share - the transaction a value of A$832m (US$546m).
Publisher: ANGLOGOLD
ET
(10/11/99; 9:23:08MDT - Msg ID:16045)
From the Newsmax site
http://www.notforpublication.com/serial.html
Interesting piece about current US foreign policy.
ET
ET
(10/11/99; 9:19:17MDT - Msg ID:16044)
Bonedaddy
Hey Bonedaddy - thanks for your kind words. It has been my experience that what has been missing from much of the discussion on currency machinations and possible y2k induced economic problems is the actual mechanics of money and credit in today's marketplace. In some of Another's early writings I noticed he mentioned the coming transition to a new monetary system as needing to be done in a way that doesn't crash the entire system as that wouldn't benefit any party. The main thrust of Dr. North's argument has been that y2k threatens the worldwide division of labor. Both are correct in my view. The confluence of these two views and how a solution to the problem of economic change in the world might manifest itself is what brought me to this group. I don't know what is going to happen but I believe that government and banks will resort to the policies that have kept them in business up to this point. Keynesian money creation is what they know. As Mr. GoldPower pointed out, we seem to be seeing the last vestiges of socialism attempt to stay on top. I agree with him that they are destined to fail. All I'm trying to do is walk the path and observe the roadsigns. I don't think any of us know what is around the next corner but we probably do know what governments and banks reaction might be.
ET
Goldspoon
(10/11/99; 9:11:56MDT - Msg ID:16043)
Quoteable Quote by SteveH....
"As long as Anti-gun proponents say we have no rights under the Second Amendment, then they have no right to say that under the 1st Amendment"-SteveH
"Those who say give up some of our Freedoms for the sake of peace and safety, deserve neither"- Ben Franklin
USAGOLD
(10/11/99; 9:10:34MDT - Msg ID:16042)
Today's Gold Market Report: Some Interesting Numbers on Ashanti
MARKET REPORT(10/11/99): Day Eleven of the Big Breakout....Gold down in the
early going on profit taking -- that means the brokers are having to make good on those
calls..........................This is Columbus Day in the United States and Centennial
Precious Metals' offices will be closed. Japan is also on holiday...............Britain's
Lonmin Plc offered to acquire Ashanti Goldfields after the Ghana-based mining company
defaulted on margin calls with a consortium of counterparties -- among them some of the
largest banks and brokerages in the world. The banks agreed to forestall margin calls in the
hundreds of millions to keep the mining company from going under. Reuters reports this
oddity in financial history: "Ashanti is a victim of a leap in gold caused by European central
banks' decision to cap official sales of the metal. That flipped its derivatives book, designed
to protect it against a fall in prices, from profit into loss." To my knowledge, Ashanti is the
first gold mining company in history to attribute its demise to a bull market in
gold.................................The potential Ashanti/Lonmin merger helped drive gold
down in London this morning as it appears that couterparties, at least with respect to
Ashanti, are temporarily taken off the hook. I emphasize the word "potential" because
Lonmin has made its acquisition conditional on Ashanti resolving its hedge book crisis. To
put the situation in some kind of meaningful perspective, the Lonmin offer valued Ashanti at
$600 million. If Ashanti had been forced to close its hedgebook, the loss would have been
$570 million, according to a Reuters article this morning. The margin call was put at $270
million. This is more than a simple liquidity squeeze; Ashanti is deep under water. With
Lonmin asking for resolution on the margin call issue before acquisition the unresolved
question remains: Who's going to bail Ashanti out? And what happens the next time the
gold price ratchets up? And this merger talk might buy time for Ashanti, but it might not end
in happy resolution...............Says one London dealer: "One assumes there will not now
be panic buy backs. There was talk last week that if one of the counter parties wanted to
push through (with margin calls) there could be buy backs and that everyone would be a
buyer.".........At least until the next Ashanti style debacle surfaces..........London traders
put support at $315....................Since Britain announced the sale of gold from its
central bank, the pound has been in near free fall. Now the other shoe has dropped,
wholesale prices are up 1.7% -- that translates to a 20.4% annualized rate. Inflation nearly
always follows currency depreciation -- a relationship not lost on American investors. We
have registered our concern on these pages in months past that Britain might end up the first
G7 victim of the Asian contagion style inflationary depression. Watch out for higher interest
rates in Britain and their consequent effects on the equities markets. As is the case with your
American counterparties, I would advise our British friends to make their way to the nearest
gold dealer's for a conversation about adding a little gold to your portfolio mix..
Unfortunately, we, as yet, do not do business in UK though we can establish safe, insured
storage for you in the United States....................... FWN reports "Friday's Commodity
Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report appears to have raised more
questions than answers. The report showed virtually no change in speculative shorts, a
highly unlikely scenario given a 24.5% rally in gold prices over the reporting period. This
has spurred the CFTC to review the data."............ If the report is accurate, I would have
to say that there is plenty of built up price potential still in this market for the short-run.
More bad news on the mining, hedge fund front and the scramble for metal could begin in
earnest..............That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters........Have a good day.
The October edition of News & Views is on its way to our readers and we invite all our
visitors to take advantage of a free trial subscription to one of the most popular, widely read
and quoted gold newsletters. Last month we predicted an explosion in the gold price. This
month we deal with the nettlesome subject of paper assets in this tenth month of the
penultimate year. And we all know what that means. October brings with it our annual
Halloween issue. Here's an excerpt: "And this October could very well foreshadow a most
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ET
(10/11/99; 8:50:09MDT - Msg ID:16041)
AEL
Hey AEL - thanks for the response. Yes, we are in agreement but I think perhaps you misunderstand my thinking on banks guaranteeing people their money. Yes, you are correct that banks will never be able to hand over physical cash to people equal to their account balances, but I doubt they would want to either. My point was more that people would have access to their cash through the usual indirect manner, checks and plastic. There is no reason why anyone would not be able to get their money as long as the banking system continues to function. The same would apply to the government promises such as Social Security and pensions. Because of the ability of governments and banks to debase the currency as needed all promises can be kept. What that money might purchase in the marketplace is another matter but no promises have been made in that regard. This is the reason I believe that money in hand or money in the bank will have equal value in most circumstances. There could be exceptions as you note but I think we agree that all this money is of questionable value in the marketplace during an economic crisis.
ET
canamami
(10/11/99; 8:47:11MDT - Msg ID:16040)
POG/POS - Continued downward momentum
I know it seems silly to complain about the last 4 days' weakness given the recent rally, but I'm starting to get concerned about the downward momentum. The POG just can't pick up any upward steam. We need a positive day to to keep the right "psychology" in play; otherwise things may turn negative.
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 8:17:07MDT - Msg ID:16039)
ECB's Duisenberg on Euro Region Money Supply
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=7eb0c94cdbed57120cfd59b5d2f6a752
From European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg's speech "The Eurosystem's Monetary Policy Strategy: The First Year's Experience":
"There is little doubt that monetary aggregates in the euro area exhibit a close relationship with inflation...
we don't think we should be overly activist and react to any news that comes in. Monetary policy is ill-suited to fine-tune cyclical developments in the short run. However, we will not hesitate to act should this be necessary to maintain price stability in the medium term. ...
Monetary policy alone cannot address all the economic challenges in the euro area. One cannot reduce the unacceptably high level of structural unemployment."
He also said that stock prices, while important indicators, couldn't dictate monetary policy (to maintain the lofty prices) because that would raise the danger of imparting a moral hazard onto the markets.
SteveH
(10/11/99; 8:11:50MDT - Msg ID:16038)
Final thought re: protecting gold
As long as Anti-gun proponents say we have no rights under the Second Amendment, then they have no right to say that under the 1st Amendment.
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 7:25:09MDT - Msg ID:16037)
THE GILDED OPINION: What the President Should Know about our Monetary System by Lawrence Parks / FAME
http://www.usagold.com/parkspresident.html
A sample of the complete text to be found at this link:
"The monetary system of the United States is inherently a fraud upon people, both at home and abroad. Essentials of our money are being misrepresented, and crucial information is not being disclosed. The beneficiaries of the fraud are mostly those in the financial sector of the economy, very large corporations, and the politicians they finance. The victims are everybody else, but especially ordinary people who are dependent upon the integrity of our monetary system for their savings, their pensions, and their jobs. Already, fraudulent monetary systems modeled after our own have wiped out the savings, pensions, and jobs of hundreds of millions all over the world, including in Russia, the Philippines, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, Malaysia, and many other countries."
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 7:23:09MDT - Msg ID:16036)
THE GILDED OPINION: Whither Gold? by Antal E. Fekete (Courtesy of FAME)
http://www.usagold.com/whithergold.html
A sample of a much larger text to be found at this link:
"Mainstream economists...insist that, with the advent of the new millennium, gold has forever lost its former productive power to the irredeemable bill of credit. "Gold has become sterile again. It can earn no return -- only irredeemable bills of credit can." It is important for us to realize that every word of the doctrine on the sterility of gold is an outright lie. Not only can the owner of gold earn a return in gold on his holdings even under the regime of irredeemable currency, but gold is the only form of tangible wealth that can be lent out at interest and that is in constant demand as such. There is a lively gold loan market in the world: gold is put out in loans and is borrowed at interest on a regular basis. It is used in financing great capital projects as well as trade -- in the same way (although not on the same scale) as it always did under the gold standard.Under these loan contracts both principal and interest are payable in gold. Nor is this something new: gold lending has continued uninterrupted in countries where the necessary legal protection of contracts involving gold loans has not been abrogated. `Demonetization' did not succeed in abolishing the lending and borrowing gold at interest, it only abolished the truth about it. Even students of economics are deliberately kept in the dark about the existence, functioning, and extent of these gold loan markets....Under the regime of irredeemable currency interest is merely bribe-money, trying to persuade reluctant holders of irredeemable promises to hang on awhile longer. The maturity structure of the U.S. public debt is contracting. Clearly this process cannot continue indefinitely. ... When the dispersal of gold reaches a certain threshold (nobody knows where exactly this threshold is), a metamorphosis of money will take place. Gold will reclaim its throne as constitutional monarch in the monetary and credit system of the world."
TownCrier
(10/11/99; 7:18:55MDT - Msg ID:16035)
Hear ye! Hear ye! There are new additions for your monetary education at USAGOLD!
http://www.usagold.com/thegildedopinion.html
Click the link above to visit the growing index of educatinal commentary to be found within the halls of The Gilded Opinion. You do not want to miss the latest arrivals provided courtesy of The Foundation for the Advancement of Monetary Education. After reading these excellent essays, you are invited to visit F.A.M.E.'s website to learn more about joining the Fight for Honest Monetary Weights and Measures.
THX-1138
(10/11/99; 7:10:49MDT - Msg ID:16034)
Gov't gun confiscation thoughts
Hey, if the Feds and liberals want guns confiscated, then the arms industry should fight back. Stop producing ammo for M-16s (reduce bullets for military and police force), 20mm ammo for aircraft, and 50 cal cannon ammo for tanks and APCs. Either that or start raising the prices that the gov't has to pay to get them. Start putting gold clauses in the contracts. That would do it.
SteveH
(10/11/99; 6:25:30MDT - Msg ID:16033)
The Scot
Dec. gold now...$320.20. It hit the bottom bollinger band (nipped it, in fact) and is now rising towards the upper band, which on the 60-minute chart is $324.50. Seems to be trading in range now.
Regarding fighting for the Second. Not a good idea, per se. Best thing to do, imo, is to write Congress and let people know what you believe and why. Can't take away the second and expect the rest to be sacrosanct(sp?). Perhaps even join the NRA, sue if necessary. Rights are rights, and that's why we have the BofR. They protect gold and guns.
The Scot
(10/11/99; 5:46:28MDT - Msg ID:16032)
STEVE H
Steve,
Another thought, Are Americans different?
When the government of England disarmed it's sheeple, they gave up their fireams without much fuss. The same with Australia. Are American different, will we resist? There are enough firearms in the hands of civilians to "take a stand" but will the people have the courage?
Let's not kid ourselves, when the government tells the military to disarm the people, they WILL follow orders. Why?
In every society, the military has always sided with the politians initially. Their survival in the new society is guaranteed if they obey the command. Are our men in military different? I hope so, but I'm am not sure.
The Scot
Hipplebeck
(10/11/99; 5:44:10MDT - Msg ID:16031)
to my friends on the forum
I just read what Bill Murphy said on Sunday, and I am more and more convinced that I am right.
These big bankers are not stupid. This gold manipulation scheme was done for a reason. The goal is to eventually take possesion of the physical gold of the world.
When the price of gold goes up because the shorts are covering, who do you think is on the very end of the receiving line? When the mining companies have to make arrangements to cover their hedging, who is on the controlling side? They gladly watch as the price rises, because it is not them paying the high price to get it back. They are the beneficiaries. The price will rise, arrangements will be made as in LTCM, gold will come back into the market at these higher prices and be returned to the central bank vaults. They are wringing it out of the system. This will not be a sudden, explosive event. They have plenty of time. Sure there was a sudden jump when the trap was sprung, but it will take time to unwind everything.
The central banks will have made a profit. These guys are acquiring gold in a very sophisticated scheme.
I will say it again, If the public insists that gold is valuable as money, then the way to total control is to get the gold.
The Scot
(10/11/99; 5:20:26MDT - Msg ID:16030)
Steve H
Steve, I for one, on this forum, share your fear of what our government is allowing to happen to the firearm industry.
England disarmed it's "free" people and then disarmed the Australians. As socialisum marches forward it cannot allow an armed citizenry to stand in its way.
The liberals in America "Love" the 1st Amendment. They chearish the freedom it gives them speak out. They do not realize that the only thing that guarantees that freedom is the 2nd Amendment. When we loose the 2nd, the whole Constitution and the hope of freedom will be lost. I hope the liberals enjoy slavery, they will deserve it.
Sincerely, The Scot
SteveH
(10/11/99; 4:44:51MDT - Msg ID:16029)
'Tis strange
Black Blade,
It is a sad day when the courts are used by special interest to have their way with a whole industry. What are the unintended consequence of that in the firearm business? Only time will tell. It is quite simple, the Second Amendement. If you don't like it, propose another one. Otherwise, leave it alone and abide by it.
gidsek
(10/11/99; 0:04:49MDT - Msg ID:16028)
Kitco Discussion Group
http://www.kitco.com/backup
IP address of the main board has changed, upgrading perhaps but the discussion is as alive and well, and occasionally bizarre as always. .. at the link above.
gidsek
Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
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