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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/10/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

TownCrier (01/10/06; 23:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140355)
China Senior Economist:To Shift Some FX Reserves From Dollar
http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006011005380004&Take=1
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- China has resolved to shift some of its foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and into other world currencies, according to a high-level state economist who advises the nation's economic policymakers, The Washington Post reports in its Tuesday edition.

The new policy reflects China's fears that too much of its savings is tied up in the dollar, a currency widely expected to drop in value as the U.S. trade and fiscal deficits climb, the Post said. China's foreign exchange reserves are now in excess of $800 billion.

The comments of the Chinese senior economist were made on the condition of anonymity because the government disciplines those who speak to the press without express authorization...

^---(from url)---^

As the battle wages on between conflicting statements of intent, the litmus test to help you discern the most probable course of action is to sit back, take a deep breath, and, while considering the conjunction of all things, the version to buy into is the one that reflects the most intelligent choice.

Simply put, gold endures and prevails. And everybody knows it on one level or Another.

R.


Mthirsty1 (01/10/06; 23:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140354)
market
Goldilox,thank you for the reply and the info.M.

TownCrier (01/10/06; 23:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140353)
3 die in AngloGold rockfall
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.asp?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=1518-24_1860902
Johannesburg - South Africa's largest gold miner AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) on Tuesday announced that three people died and two people were seriously injured in a rockfall at the company's TauTona mine...

"The fall was caused by a seismic event, with a 2.4 magnitude, which occurred some 3000m below surface," the company said.

^---(from url)---^

If losing your life for it nearly two miles below the earth's surface doesn't somehow inform you that that the pricing mechanism is currently out of kilter (market value is grossly too low), then I don't know what will provide that perspective for you.

Choose gold -- still a bargain and attainable with, relatively speaking, burger-flipping chump change.

R.


Goldilox (01/10/06; 22:42:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140352)
market crash?
@ Mthirsty1,

I don't know that "everyone" wants the market to crash, or even if it will. The fundamentals do not look great, but as I pointed out earlier, this 11k DOW is not the same as Y2K's 11K DOW. Massive liquidity may carry it forward quite well, although the dollars it's being measured in are worth much less.

In gold terms, it is 55% lower at the same numerical value.

You may not have a lot of say about your retirement "investments", but there are market options, i.e. Bear funds, etc., that can appreciate your capital in a down draft, and usually don't get hit too hard in a rally, either. Many of them have at least some gold components in their portfolios.

Do your homework, as group advisors are often asleep at the switch!


Hektor (01/10/06; 22:41:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140351)
State Secrets
Smeagol, you are far too subtle and cunning for me. Of course, what you say would happen -- both parties to above-market sales would keep it secret, both in their own interests. But, if those sales became sizeable, methinks it would leak out.


"If China paid some multiple above the market price for gold, that would immediately BECOME the market price for gold." - Hector

But how could that happen - IF they, and those private ones whom they purchase It from, agree to keep silence, precious? One has never had to pay market price for It...perhaps this is where the sseparation of It from the paper-market price begins? Or has begun?


Mthirsty1 (01/10/06; 22:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 140350)
stock market
I do not know if i am understanding the whole senarieo here,but what i am reading in the forum is that everyone want's the stock market to perform badly in order to push the price of gold higher.I have just started investing in gold recentley as most of you know.I purchased the gold starter kit from CPM.I for one can't wish for the stock market to crash,because all of my wife's pension and profit sharing is tied into the market as is millions of other americans.She has worked her whole life towards her retirement.When you are in this situation,when you can't take money out to buy gold(except paper gold)then all you can do is buy it when you can afford it.Are we investing in gold to await for doomsday,or are we looking for both the market and gold to give us the future we have all worked for our entire lives.With all respect to the roundtable,M.

MK (01/10/06; 20:14:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140349)
Au-some -- Howl
Well, that's a bit darker than I remembered it. Over the top, I would say. And the poem doesn't really have much to do with the point I was trying to make. So my apologies to the Table for the misplaced reference. I hope it doesn't divert attention from my basic message as outlined in that post.

Ten Bears (01/10/06; 20:06:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140348)
The Golden Goose @ Beyond Keynes to Inflation
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/benson/benson010906.html
Two views for 2006.

"The expansion of the monetary base, that has been so choreographed, that has gotten every fiat currency in history in trouble, resembles the inverted pyramid. Less and less backing more and more credit expansion."

"The monetary expansion and velocity must continue, or the death of a fiat currency will be the end game."
"Your only safety net in such a scenario is gold, silver, and other things 'real'."


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/lechner/lechner011006.html


"Hyperinflations are caused by extremely rapid growth in the supply of "paper" money. They occur when the monetary and fiscal authorities of a nation regularly issue large quantities of money to pay for a large stream of government expenditures. In effect, inflation is a form of taxation where the government gains at the expense of those who hold money whose value is declining. Hyperinflations are, therefore, very large taxation schemes"

"The CPI underestimates actual inflation by 1.5 to 2 percent by excluding housing prices and using "hedonic price adjustment"

"For 2006 and beyond, I expect the inflationary war on savers will continue, and I just don't see how financial assets - stocks and bonds - will keep up. The preservation of real wealth at a time when the Federal Reserve will be dedicated to building debt, money and inflation, is not going to be an easy task"





Chris Powell (01/10/06; 20:04:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140347)
DVDs of GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference go on sale
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3597
Latest GATA dispatch.



To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com



Au-some (01/10/06; 18:07:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 140346)
Howl
Part I. From Allen Ginsberg. Howl and Other Poems. San Fancisco: City Lights Books, 1956.

For Carl Solomon

1

"I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked,

dragging themselves through the negro streets at dawn looking for an angry fix,

angelheaded hipsters burning for the ancient heavenly connection to the starry dynamo in the machinery of night,

who poverty and tatters and hollow-eyed and high sat up smoking in the supernatural darkness of cold-water flats floating across the tops of cities contemplating jazz,..."

and so on


MK (01/10/06; 17:35:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140345)
Belgian, All -- The HOWL
From the Reuters article linked below:

"We are definitely aware of some central banks that are showing more interest in gold but there is a long decision making process, so we are not expecting any major purchases soon," said Jill Leyland, economic adviser to the World Gold Council.

___________

The World Gold Council knows better than most how the gap between supply and demand has been met over the past decade or more. It is met through central bank gold sales -- principally European central bank gold sales. That gap is roughly 500 tonnes.

Three things of importance have happened over the past six months.

First, European selling is in the process of drying up. (Germany, Switzerland, et al)

Second, a handful of nation states have announced either an interest in or a program for gold reserve acquisitions (China, Argentina, South Africa, Russia, et al).

Third, mining companies have continued their programs to reduce their hedge books through forward gold purchases of physical metal

The combination of the three has put extraordinary pressure on the supply-demand equation the likes of which we have never before seen in the gold market.

What if you now added a COMPLETELY NEW element to the gold market equation? What if the official sector over the next few years became net buyers of gold instead of net sellers? Where would those short the market obtain the metal needed to fill their short positions?

God forbid that the bullion bankers -- like Barclays and Virtual Metals -- would have to compete in the market with the likes of Russia and China to fill its clients' needs.

That is why the howl is so loud from certain quarters, Belgian. This is a major breach in the gold edifice -- a run around the Maginot Line -- and some are having a hard time dealing with it. When Russia first announced that it would make gold purchases for its official reserves in the open market, I likened its importance to the signing of the Washington Agreement. At the time a similar HOWL arose from the bullion banks very much like today's HOWL as described in the below linked Reuters article.

Can you all recall when this very same group would trot out the central bank gold sales mantra whenever gold got on a roll?

Now, for the very same reasons they wanted us all to believe that the central banks were net sellers, they want us all to believe now that the central banks will never become net buyers.

Methinks that some protesteth too much. . .

_________

I would like to address in particular Jill Leyland's opinion that "we (whoever we is) do not expect any major purchases soon." To see the bullion bankers register significantly on the pain meter, and so publicly in the press, we gold owners and advocates should ask ourselves why this whole thing requires such a prominent and vocal response. I return to the "GAP." Central banks need not purchase gold tomorrow or the day after. All they need do is THREATEN to purchase gold. Just as the THREAT of central bank gold sales was enough to kill price rallies in the past, so the THREAT of of central bank gold purchases will be enough to kill price corrections in the future.

That, my friends, is the reason for the BIG HOWL.

I seem to remember a poem that started with. . . .

"I saw the best minds of my generation. . ."

What was that?



USAGOLD Daily Market Report (01/10/06; 17:26:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140344)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold rests on solid footing

January 10 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed Tuesday with a loss of almost $5 an ounce after tapping a quarter-century high in overnight trading, but many analysts considered the pull back only temporary.

"While gold is very overbought and profit-taking can be expected, this secular bull market has continuously punished the bears and market-top forecasters," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"This time should be no different."

COMEX February gold contracts closed at $545.70, down $4.80. It touched a high of $553.10 in overnight trading between Monday and Tuesday, a level not seen since 1981.

Last weeks' announcement that China it will diversify its holdings of foreign reserves has put pressure on the dollar and provided support for gold, taking prices in overnight trading to a quarter-century high of $553.10 overnight.

"Asian interests are in the driver's seat," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, "while Western speculators have been largely absent from the market, outside of short-covering.

"This new 'gold fever' has been helped by indications that China will diversify its foreign reserves away from the dollar, and rumors that the nation may begin increasing the gold component of its reserves," he said.

So "Asia is fueling this latest gold rally -- broadening and deepening the base of investment demand for what is a relatively small market," he said.

Overall, the gold market remains on "solid footing fundamentally and technically," added Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco. Investors are looking at the longer-term picture, he said.

They "don't mind gold's short-term gyrations and are more scared of Iran, of U.S. domestic spying fallout, of [Ben] Bernanke taking the helm at the U.S. Federal Reserve, the statements of diversification away from the U.S. dollar coming out of China and of investing in other assets that are probably far more overpriced than gold really is."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---


David Linkley (01/10/06; 17:17:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 140343)
@Belgian
Hi Belgian,
Good posts to make one think about the NWO. I have no doubt that some parts of the world want higher gold prices to offset the huge creation of dollars which acts to discount their labors and or resources. Where I differ from you is that I see all of the West in the same boat. Poor demographics, too much debt, lack of fiscal restraint, poor leadership and degradation of the money. The ECU is just as guilty as the US when it comes to poor stewardship of their money and gold continues to flow from west to east.

At this point in time oil is very crucial to the gold currency relationship. However, a time will come when a strong movement towards energy independence will come and is achieveable over a multi-decade period. Gold will not benefit long-term countries who ignor economic realities and that includes the ECU. The end of American dominance is coming but it is much further off than most realize. For sure changes are occurring now which will force the US to accept others wishes more than in the past 50 years.

What the NWO will look like is still very much in the air. However it won't be the ECU leading the charge, they will be a player but look east in 40 to 50 years if you really want the anwser.


OvS (01/10/06; 17:10:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140342)
I am sorry, but...
Although I am very
bullish on gold, I
will sell some of it.
I will acquire a very
nice looking and old
stone structure and
will remodel it with
old world taste into
something I always
wanted to own so I
could do the things
not possible in my
home.
Three of my seven
children attend private
colleges and soon the
remaining will follow.
By then my venture shall
be finished and perhaps
I'll shall invite the
forum for a celebration
there? We'll see...OvS
PS. And remember, Gold
and Silver is not every-
thing...joking, of course.


OvS (01/10/06; 16:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140341)
Puzzle.
Thanks Flatliner for your
msg # 140334.

Your repost of Another's:
Can someone go graphically
through his scenario? For
the life of me (and for
reason of 3 glasses red),
I seemed to get lost; who
is the third party? (Maybe
someone like HSBC who knows
the gold depositers in its
vaults?). Are the brokers &
merchant banks one and the
same (like Goldman Sachs &
Morgan Stanley)? Selling
forward for mines, specula-
tors or governments are not
of a kind; some gold is in
the ground, others above?

"Another" sounds like Belgian
when he forgets to put on
his French accent...or, did
our Belgian thru rereading
Another's Thoughts absorb by
osmosis his claimed English-
ness? Ha,ha, just joking.OvS


Belgian (01/10/06; 16:38:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 140340)
@Flatliner
The transition plan (rather process) that has been architected over more than 2 decades, goes ordely. Certainly so, when it is in everybody's interest (opposing factions).
Example : First there was a decade of ECU and then EMU.

Watch the goldprice chart of the past 25 years : Do you see irrational exhuberance ? Do you see an oilprice going bezerk ? No, this is all happening relatively disciplined.

As soon as prices (exchange rates) are pushed by speculative forces...you see pricing regulation coming in, without breaking the long term desired trends. No drama for the time being.

Read how Asians are doing their best to avoid misunderstandings (mis-interpretations) of their statements on important monetary matters.

Those who whish to make speculative money on bull/bear-runs/rallies, are most probably very disappointed or should I say disoriented.

When the euro/dollar exchange rate rushed to 1,36...Trichet asked NOT to rush into the euro .

Political statements often function as market sentiment regulators, whilst the plans are proceeding.


Flatliner (01/10/06; 16:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 140339)
@Belgian
I, too, believe the indirect evidence. It seems interesting to find so much information to confirm the gold trail.

I do have one question for you. I seem to remember that you have taken the stand that the revaluation will be orderly in previous postings. Just before the end of the year the Japanese market got speculative and then the PoG got hammered. I'm still trying to understand why you think the process will be so orderly?

Also, you must not live in the USofA! Gold would not be discussed as having any value by a banker.


Belgian (01/10/06; 16:04:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 140338)
@Flatliner
This Reuters-type of article is wonderful (indirect)evidence (again) that "they" know very well what is actually happening (for the past 5 yrs already).
How many different theories have already been served (by the financial media) to the general public as to explain (guide) the change in price behavior of oil and gold !?

When POG declines from $550 to $540...-they- scream that "profits" (???) are been taken !? Jesus !

Normally, all official gold-reserve holders (states) should enjoy the revaluation of their gold-reserves. One particular (old) block constantly seems to feel very unhappy with the gold revaluation. All the others remain rather silent (neutral) about the goldprice. They (most)probably feel very comfortable with the gold revaluation process. Do we hear the Asians, Russians, oil-owners scream that there is not enough gold !? On the contrary, they state that they want more of the precious metal. In sharp contrast with Alan's statement of >>> CBs stand ready to...

Today, my 13 yrs old daughter went to visit a bank with school : Guess what was showed and discussed >>> GOLD !!!


Flatliner (01/10/06; 15:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140337)
US has 64% of its reserves in gold!
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=167044+10-Jan-2006+RTRS&srch=gold
There you have it folks. Atul Parkash is the person of the hour. We can all rest now knowing that there is no evidence that central banks are buying gold and that they just don't make decisions fast enough anyway.

Hey, this guy also seems to know exactly how much gold the US holds. Someone should get this guy on the horn and find out the actual numbers. :)

Full article included below. (Sorry about the length.)

---
By Atul Prakash
LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Central banks are unlikely to rush to diversify their reserves into gold in the foreseeable future because of their lengthy decision-making process and small size of the bullion market, analysts said.
The market has been abuzz with talk that some central banks might consider raising the gold holding in their reserves to reduce heavy dependence on currencies.
China's announcement last week that it planned to explore new ways of using the country's foreign exchange reserves and broadening their investment scope, boosted sentiment and lifted gold to its highest in 25 years at $550.75 an ounce on Monday.
But a senior central banker said on Tuesday China will not sell its current U.S. dollar assets as part of a move to diversify foreign reserves. [nPEK362492].
"If you are talking on the pure diversification argument, the numbers don't necessarily add up because the gold market is simply too small," said Jon Spall, director at Barclays Capital.
"If China were to accumulate gold at the same rate at which European central banks are divesting, then it will take them 8 years to achieve 10 percent of their reserves in gold, given the somewhat unlikely corollary that nothing else changes."
In March 2004, 15 European central bank renewed a 1999 pact to limit their sales over a five-year period to 2,500 tonnes, with annual sales limited to 500 tonnes.
Analysts say diversification into gold by a central bank would mean allocating five to 10 percent of its reserves. A rise of one or two percent is seen as minor adjustment.
"The gold market is not big enough really for that kind of purchase," said Mathew Turner, analyst at Virtual Metals.
Barclays said in a report that if China planned to raise its gold holdings to 10 percent, it would need some 4,680 tonnes or about two years of global mine production.
"Certainly gold has a role to play for central bank reserves but whether they actually add to their reserves or not is an unanswerable question," said John Reade, precious metals analyst at UBS Investment Bank.
"We have seen no evidence that central banks have been buying gold over the last 6-12 months. Until we actually see a reported increase in holdings from one of the big Asian central banks, that's always going to remain a possibility rather."
LENGTHY DECISION PROCESS
Analysts said central banks take a long time to decide about any change in their holdings and it appeared there was nothing on the table at the moment.
"We are definitely aware of some central banks that are showing more interest in gold but there is a long decision making process, so we are not expecting any major purchases soon," said Jill Leyland, economic adviser to the World Gold Council.
The general trend over the past 10 years or so has been for central banks to sell their gold, which gives little yield on deposits compared to foreign exchange reserves.
But unstable currency markets, high oil prices and concerns about rising trade barriers have prompted some central banks to start considering reducing their heavy dependence on the dollar.
"There were suggestions that Russia, South Africa and Argentina might increase their gold holdings and these all fanned the flames of enthusiasm," SG Corporate and Investment Banking said in a report.
"There has been little evidence to date of sustained central bank buying activity, but where the official sector is concerned perception is everything," it said.
World gold reserves total around 31,000 tonnes. China holds 600 tonnes and India 358 tonnes, but gold's share of their reserves is just 1.2 percent and 3.6 percent respectively.
In some European countries, gold accounts for 50 percent, while in the U.S., the world's biggest holder, bullion makes up 64 percent of reserves.



Belgian (01/10/06; 15:20:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140336)
@YGM
It speaks for itself that a substantial amount of goldmetal (tonnes) is often transfered for much more (indirect) "value" than the the dayprice of gold indicates. An example : During the period of sanctions against South Africa, a lot of goldmetal moved in exchange for much needed oil that couldn't reach SA. Those were the days that secrets were not "that" secret.

Oil and gas, also have many different prices ! Recent examples are found in Russian resources that flow to different parties at much different prices (Oekraine -etc).

That's why gold and oil are called "political" tangibles. Energy and gold are both "state-affairs" and the official market price we see, is a price indication for the general public, us the schrimps.

And if gold is shared amongst many states, through redistribution, to participate all together the gold-wealth-reserve concept...gold has been exchanged for much more future "value" than the present price is suggesting !

$600 and euro 480 per ounce, are the prices that are adjusted for "official" (!!!) price-inflation for the US and EU. All in line with the past 35 years of official goldprice management. Once the POG passes through $600/Oz (in '06) we have lift off for the gold=wealth reserve concept shared by those who whish to align with EMU.

Watch how the POO is (subtly) forcing the POG to go higher.
Watch how the goldmine prices definitely have lost their former (traditional) leverage to the POG. Good sign that the present goldprice is "managed" by other forces than was the case during the past 3 decades. Russia AND China have substantial amounts of underground gold. They do now what other gold states never did >>> Value their underground gold reserves before having mined/refined it.
It is not the 50 billion mining industry that has any importance, but gold the metal has when stored under another goldregime. Asians, nor Russians are holding goldmine shares. And if goldmining stops tomorrow, the goldmetal trade is not going to stop trading !

Bear in mind that the bulk of goldmines are already state controlled and have no grip at all on the price of their product.
It is the financial industry that continues to make the general public believe that the world's goldprice is a market fenomenon. IT IS NOT !!!

Amen.


Clink! (01/10/06; 13:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 140335)
Big Trader
Well, Murphy at the Cafe keeps on mentioning a large buyer called "Stalker" (and now a number of little "Stalkers" too) from Asia, so this might be one and the same entity. I'd take a small bet it's not Henry Kissinger, at any rate ....
C!


Flatliner (01/10/06; 12:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 140334)
Big Trader
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html
When I re-read this clip from Oct 1997, I can't help but wonder who HK was? Didn't the region of in South China return to Chinese rule on July 1st 1997? Isn't that southern region that of … Hong Kong? Could it be that in ’97 they (HK) got an education with regards to how you acquire large quantities of gold without driving the price up? (I don't know, I'm just guessing) But, if HK is Hong Kong, I would be willing to bet that they have already acquired what they *needed*. This would also give support to what Belgian keeps saying with regards to us being in the re-valuing phase.

Now, it will be interesting to see how it's revalued. Could it be that enough mine supply just doesn't make it to the public market? That would be my guess, but we shall see. We've been told publicly that South Africa's production numbers are down. Could it really be that the public supply is down but the private supply isn't? (Is it possible to research something like this) When Russia says that it will acquire more, are they really saying that mine supply will not find its way into public markets?

Just coins for Thoughts…

SNIP:
Date: Sun Oct 12 1997 10:42
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
How DO they do it?

It's more complicated than this but here is a close explanation. In the beginning the CBs didn't sell their own gold. They ( thru third party ) found someone else who had bullion. That "party" sold to a broker who sold forward for a mine or speculator or government ) . In the end the 3rd party had the backing from the broker that he had backing from the CB to supply physical if needed to put out a fire. The CB held a very private note from the broker as insurance and was paid a small fee. This process mobilized free standing bullion outside the government stockpiles. The world currency gold price was kept down as large existing physical stockpiles were replaced by notes of future delivery from the merchant banks ( and anyone else who wanted to play ) .

This whole game was not lost on some very large buyers WHO WANTED GOLD BUT DIDN'T WANT IT'S MOVEMENT TO BE SEEN! Why not move a little closer to the action by offering cash directly to the broker/bank ( to be lent out ) in return for a future gold note that was indirectly backed by the CBs. That "paper gold" was just like gold in the bank. The CBs liked it because no one had to move gold and it took BIG buying power off the market that would have gunned the price! It also worked well as a vehicle to cycle oil wealth for gold as a complete paper deal.

Are you with me?

Well a funny thing happened right after the Gulf war ended. What looked like big money before turned out to be little money as some HK people, I'll call them "Big Trader" for short, moved in and started buying all the notes and physical the market offered. The rub was that they only bought low, and lower and cheaper. They never ran the price and they never ran out of money. Seeing this, some people ( middle east ) started to exchange their existing paper gold for the real stuff. From that time, early 1997 LBMA was running full speed just to stay in one spot! In other words paper volume had to increase to the physical volume on a worldwide scale, and that was going to be one hell of a jump. It could not be hidden from the news any longer.

This was not far from the time that "Big Trader" said that "if gold drops below $370 the world would see trading volume like never before seen". The rest is history. Now the CBs will have to sell 1/3 to 1/2 of their gold just to cover whats out there. To use the Queens English "it ain't gona happen dude"!

Everything is now upside down and reversed. The more the CBs sell outright the more the price will rise.

It's not a bearish sign anymore. They will now sell to keep the price rising slowly.

What of those T-bonds and the US$?

More later.

:END SNIP









Goldilox (01/10/06; 12:02:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140333)
Coin Show
CNBC just did a bit on the Coin show going on in Santa Clara. No mention of our gracious hosts, however.

But imagine Sue's "Wow" when the prices of some earlier US gold pieces were revealed.

Like, DUH!


silverport (01/10/06; 11:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140332)
NOT ENOUGHT GOLD
There is between five and ten times the amount of gold above ground,and most has been kept hidden.This has been aquired in the past three centuries in many ways.Because gold is real wealth,and has power it must be hidden from view and also from taxation.It is in a few hands and gives control over states and kings.When a few persons have so much control they become kings, but still hidden from the people with puppets installed to work from behinded the scenes.This is a vast subject of which gold is a small part, but will become more important in the next few years.Just a few lines from a newcomer,thanks.

Flatliner (01/10/06; 11:12:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 140331)
Your point of view
http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HA11Ag01.html
"In addition, there is an important angle of economic competition over Iranian resources and access to Iranian markets. Russia continues to believe that Western concerns about nuclear proliferation merely reflect commercial interests to drive Russia out of competitive markets. In September 2003, for instance, in his interview with Western journalists, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated: "According to our information, many Western European and American companies cooperate with Iran either directly or through intermediary organizations in the nuclear sphere."

To substantiate the Kremlin's claims about the commercial nature of Washington's pressures, some Russian analysts argued that, even in the absence of official contracts, US-Iranian trade turnover was about US$1 billion, which was higher than that of Russia, despite the Russia-Iran strategic partnership agreement. The analysts also pointed out that immediately before the Islamic revolution in Iran, Washington and Tehran had signed a contract worth $24 billion, which provided for US assistance in constructing eight nuclear power plants in Iran within 10 years."

Google search "Iranian News Papers":

http://www.onlinenewspapers.com/iran.htm - great list.
http://www.tehranglobe.com/ - Found snip above.

It is sometimes interesting to view the world from a different propaganda source. Here in the US, there doesn't seem to be anything but unfavorable news regarding Iran. Writing is everywhere stating what the intent is behind their movements. But, is it one sided? I don't know. But it is interesting to stand objectively aside for a few minutes every once in a while and put a search engine to work on the web.

How this all relates to gold? Well, it seems to me that the real reason behind what's going on is financial and unfortunately Iran seems to be caught in the crossfire.

Buy physical gold and guard it well. You may find your house worth billions of dollars in the near future but find it nearly impossible to drive to the store.


YGM (01/10/06; 10:46:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 140330)
F.O.A....Question (Sir Belgian would you know this??)
Didn't our missing Trail Guide once state along while back that there were quiet Gold transactions that take place periodicly at prices far above the quoted spot price? I'm sure he did.

Belgian (01/10/06; 10:29:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 140329)
THE GOLD MARKET IS TOO SMALL....!!!-???
Too small for having CBs accumulate enough goldmetal reserves...
Utterly nonsense, of course : The financial media cartels got the political message >>> If there is not enough goldmetal...let its price go up as to "revalue" the existing stashes !
That's why the goldprice decoupled from the - dollar exchange rate - !!! And that's why gold is heading for its - reserve - function !!!

And it is exactly because there is not enough goldmetal that gold is appropiate as universal reserve.

This is NOT another ***goldprice-rally*** but the start of gold's revaluation process.

It is because the market of fiat currencies is unlimited, that fiat units cannot function as a reserve.
Today, gold isn't functioning as an insurance, because the fiat markets are already heating up towards ignition temperature. The M3 thermometer must be removed so that pink pigs can fly.

This will become much clearer when POG goes beyond $600/Oz !

During the past 25 years, goldmetal has been redistributed and now the gold-owners want to revalue it.


Goldilox (1/10/06; 09:55:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 140328)
Dollar Dilema
Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital is telling CNBC that the Dollar's fate has been sealed. He reminds the viewers that in 2000, when the DOW first hit 11K, it represented 45 oz of gold, while today's 11k mark represents 20 oz of gold. In his view, gold isn't rallying, so much as the value of inflated paper trading vehicles continues to cave in.

DOW2006 (11k) = 45% of DOW2000 (11k)

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Sounds like a pretty smart guy, even if the CNC dodo kept reminding him that "Warren Buffett lost his shirt in dollar shorts last year."



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Goldilox (1/10/06; 09:14:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140326)
THE GOLD STANDARD MANIFESTO
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2006/0109.html
snip:

Specter of the Gold Standard

A specter haunts executive mansions, chambers of legislatures, and halls of universities: the ghost of the gold standard. Governments and academia have utterly failed in discharging their sacred duty to provide a serene environment for the search for and dissemination of truth regarding economics in general and monetary science in particular.

This failure has to do, first and foremost, with the incestuous financing of scientific research ever since the Federal Reserve System was launched in the United States in 1913. The formula for distributing the profits and undivided surpluses of the Federal Reserve banks has made it possible for the United States Treasury to grab the lion's share (in spite of explicit prohibition of Treasury participation in the earnings of these banks by the Federal Reserve Act as amended), with far-reaching consequences. As a result the bond market has been reduced to a gambling casino where shills, in order to whip up gambling frenzy, conspicuously make obscene gains at the gaming tables.

Check-Kiting by Another Name

But unknown to the public, at the end of the day the shills (the Federal Reserve banks) are obliged to hand over their gains to the casino owner (the United States Treasury). There is nothing open about what is euphemistically called "open market operations" of the Federal Reserve. It is in fact a covert conspiratorial operation. It has come about through unlawful delegation of power without imposing countervailing responsibilities. It was never authorized by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. It defies the principle of checks and balances. It is immoral. It is the most lucrative business second only to highway robbery. It is a formula to corrupt and ultimately to destroy the republic.

Even though later amendments to the Federal Reserve Act retroactively authorized it, the constitutionality of open market operation has never been put to the test. It is clear that such an examination would not be in the interest of the conspirators, and they would use every means at their disposal to prevent it. The folksy name for open market operations is check-kiting, whereby two conspiring parties issue obligations that neither one has the intention or the means to honor but, when they come up for payment, the phantom obligation of one party is covered with that of the other.

Incest in Financing Research

The side effect that concerns us here most is the fact that the junior partner in the conspiracy, the Federal Reserve, can only increase its share of the loot beyond the mandated limit of 6 percent per annum of subscribed capital if it increases its power in a way not measurable in dollars. It can readily do so by beefing up its "support" of research, namely, by spending pre-distribution dollars in making grants to anybody pretending to be able to write awe-inspiring, mathematically convoluted, nonetheless vacuous, papers on macroeconomics, or anything else of which the fraudulence and charlatanism is hard to detect.

As a result of this immoral way of financing research a veritable deluge of worthless papers has glutted the technical literature on money which has one common earmark: they all attempt to defend the indefensible. They try to defend the issuance of irredeemable promises to pay: the bonds issued by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve notes issued by the Federal Reserve banks. Thus, then, the basis for money creation is the flimsy check-kiting scheme whereby the Federal Reserve banks buy the bonds with the notes while the Treasury uses the notes to pay the bondholders at maturity. The bond is supposed to have value because it is ‘redeemable’ in the note which, in turn, is supposed to have value because it is ‘backed’ by the bond. In effect both instruments are irredeemable and both lack backing in the form of any verifiable wealth. At the heart of the money-creating process, however explained, analyzed or defended, is the stubborn fact that both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve banks are privileged to issue obligations that they have neither the intention nor the means to honor. For any other would-be check-kiters the running of such a scheme would constitute a crime dealt with by the Criminal Code.

This double standard of justice has, of course, an immensely demoralizing effect. But what concerns us here is that the grant departments of the Federal Reserve banks have effectively put themselves in charge of deciding what should and what should not be researched on the subject of money. While they control research on money directly, they control the appointment of heads of economics department and directors of research institutions and other think-tanks indirectly.

This incest in financing research stands without precedent in the entire history of science to the eternal shame of our "enlightened" age, regardless what yardstick we may choose to measure it, of which the dollar amounts of grant money is only the most conspicuous, but we should not ignore the more subtle yet more persuasive methods of arm-twisting: bribe and blackmail.

Crime of Omission

The hijacking of the agenda for economic research has resulted in a distortion of traditional values. The new values favor ephemeral knowledge, short-horizon planning, consumerism, debt-creation without seeing how it will be retired, instant gratification, marginalization of savings, scientific charlatanism, spreading half truths and even outright falsehoods, while discriminating against durable knowledge, time-honored scientific values, work-hard/save-hard ethics, long-horizon planning. It is no less a crime of omission than it is a crime of commission, as revealed by the following.

Support for research on the merit of metallic monetary standards as a political arrangement of placing the power to create and to extinguish money directly into the hands of the people, rather than into the hands of elected representatives or appointed agents, in conformity with the demands of the U.S. Constitution, is nil.

Support for research on the burning question of the "sudden death syndrome" as it affects irredeemable currencies with a deadly 100 percent efficiency, is zero.

Support for research on the question of legality of the open market operations by the Federal Reserve as it was surreptitiously and illegally introduced and retroactively authorized, is unavailable.

Support for research on the scientific foundation of accounting and on the necessity of taking great pains to make the sharpest possible distinction between an asset and a liability, capital and credit, debt owing and debt owning, is naught, in contrast with generous support for research purporting to justify the practice of shunting items in the balance sheet of governments from the liability to the asset column.

Support for research on the code of inspecting financial statements in order to prevent overstating assets and understating liabilities, even in the balance sheet of banks, is non-existent.

Support for the scientific examination of the curious tenet that it is possible to increase the volume of unpaid and unpayable debt in the world indefinitely, is denied.

Support for the examination of the question whether the issuance of promises to pay which the issuer has neither the intention nor the means to honor can have any justification, is not available.

Inflicting Irredeemable Currency on the People

The above short list already makes it abundantly clear that something is woefully amiss with the principle of granting unlimited power, not subject to advice and consent, still less to control, review or withdrawal by the public, empowering one particular agency not only to issue purchasing media but also to direct, permit or inhibit all scientific research pertaining to the question of its own activity of issuing the purchasing media.

It is a sad commentary on the corruption of the flow of funds in support of research that neither a single court of justice, nor a single accredited university in the entire world has found it possible to place the justification for a world-wide regime of irredeemable currency on its agenda, after thirty-five years of unprecedented economic and financial devastation, including the decimation of the purchasing power of all the currencies of the world, and the even more vicious decimation of the market value of all the bonds in the world, directly attributable to that regime.

It was this corruption of financing research that has disabled the immune system of society, that has made economics and monetary science open to the invasion of quackery and chicanery, ensuring that the success of the final assault on sound money would be a foregone conclusion. In the end the government of the United States could inflict irredeemable currency not only on its own subjects, but on the people of the rest of the world as well, without meeting any significant resistance.

Integrity of Financial Journalism

It speaks volumes about its integrity that financial journalism has failed to alert the public to the imminent danger of a credit collapse arising out of the universal use of irredeemable currency which the governments of the world have blithely embraced and foisted upon their subjects, without bothering to examine the scientific and juridical arguments against it. In previous instances of experiments with this type of currency sane and self-respecting governments have always resisted the temptation of siren song to join others living in financial backwater. Whenever weak governments came to their senses and wanted to return to the path of monetary rectitude, there was no lack of countries around on the gold standard to lend them a helping hand.

No such luck this time. The world is a rudderless ship on uncharted waters, and the storm is fast approaching. When it strikes, it will be "everybody for himself". No helping hand will assist survivors. All defenses against this type of disaster have been dismantled, and all life savers cast overboard, thanks to the diligence of the grants departments of the Federal Reserve banks.

Not only have financial journalists failed to alert the people of the dangers they are facing under the regime of irredeemable currency, they keep adding insult to injury. They lionize the Wonderful Wizard of US, King Alan who, unlike King Canute, has been able to order the tide of inflation back. Maybe after disaster has struck, it will be blamed on the ‘early’ retirement of the Wizard.

-Goldilox

Not a pretty picture, especially as you progress further in the article.


Goldilox (1/10/06; 08:37:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140325)
CNBC and Commodities
Rick Santelli just reminded viewers to remember when looking at commodities, be they metallic, foodstuffs, or oil, that the commodities markets can be generally described as small markets with big players.

Sounds like a man who expects some major volatility ahead!


Goldilox (1/10/06; 07:53:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140324)
Fractals
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
snip"

George, when will the fat lady sing? Soon. Too soon. It would be much preferable for the people of the world if the Federal Reserve and World Banks could continuously monetize all of the enormous debt, pension, and entitlement obligations that has been created by the historically anomalous continuous yearly positive GDP growth that has linearly occurred through debt expansion during the last fifty years- but that will and cannot not happen. As long as there is a significant private sector subject to the conditions of profit need, ongoing consumption of goods and services, employee wages, and their own pension obligations - self feedback macroeconomic corrections will inevitably occur.

GM is the prototype of of a formerly great private enterprise undergoing feedback collapse. Its debt burden and pension obligations are too great; its profit margins are collapsing as Asian engineers produce a better product, competitive even with the added cost of transoceanic shipping. The overproduced housing industry will soon follow as ongoing consumption of its widgets is being limited by the wages of entry level service workers who must pay annual property taxes on overvalued domiciles. Debt must be serviced and the co-conditions of the wages, cost of living, and debt load of bottom feeders who provide the pyramidal base support for the various speculative bubbles will effect the immutable feedback that rights the imbalances.

-Goldilox

Yes, "it IS the economy, stupid." When the tapped-out US consumer can no longer hold up the manufacturing base - never mind that their own job base has been gutted by globalism - the consumer of last resort is always the military. Besides, Hummers yield a much greater profit margin than Camaros, and their life expectancy makes the most planned-obsolesence advocate drool Pavlovian.

As the French President of Nissan told CNBC yesterday, when asked if the US automakers' trroubles were the reason he turned down offers to join them, "GM can and will be fixed".

Given the global economic quagmire, peace may not be an option for the "paper tigers."


Boilermaker (1/10/06; 07:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 140323)
Iran's Nuclear Program
As I've posted before I believe (at least I want to believe) that Iran's posturing about its nuclear program doesn't make sense unless they are creating a bargaining chip to gain leverage for other efforts such as denominating oil in Euros. After watching Afghanistan and Iraq invaded I cannot believe Iran's leaders would yank GWB's chain so hard with their provocative nuclear and oil programs. Iran has also alarmed "moderate" European leaders with their nuclear posturing and these are their major oil customers. It would make sense for them to abandon their nuclear weapons program, restore good relations with Europe and defuse US objections to Euro/oil markets.
Ultimately, oil is a stronger weapon (relative to the US and Europe) for Iran than nuclear will ever be.
Finally, if Iran were truly trying to develop nuclear weapons why in the world would they want to bluster about it?
Iran's oil for Euros will put another nail in the $ coffin and be far more effective than inviting worldwide nuclear angst and possible repraisal. Whichever way they go gold will benefit.


Goldilox (1/10/06; 07:08:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140322)
Global Conflagration and Paper Deluge
@Arcticfox,

Not debating the article itself, it doesn't belong here without economic linkage. Better expressed as a linked reference with posted material focused on on economic effects of deeper war entanglement.

One source I have read (proprietarily non-postable) suggests that another "front" may cost the US as much as a 1/3 dumping of the US economy, perhaps not far off considering Rob Kirby's 28% M3 growth posted below, should major foreign sources stop absorbing US debt in response.

It is quite possible, given the M3 reporting halt, and other inflation obfuscation, that the paper engines of war finance are already pumping liquidity to fund the expectation of further entanglement. Diplomatic solutions might actually be rendered economically unacceptable at this point, because forcing that liquidity into other than "defense" resources would tend to have serious bubble-creating effects.

When the effects of that "paper deluge" are manifest, gold-in-hand will be pretty much a no-brainer.


White Rose (1/10/06; 06:59:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 140321)
War with Iran, Day One
http://www.rense.com/general69/dayone.htm
This article, which is credible to me, predicts that gold would go up $120 on the first day of a war on Iran. Thus a discussion about an attack on Iran is quite appropriate for this forum. The article is written by Douglas Herman.

Rook (1/10/06; 06:57:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 140320)
.,.
Articfox, the forum rules have changed.
Link political commentary in your post, but the forum is no longer the place to post it.


Arcticfox (1/10/06; 06:08:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 140319)
Attack on Iran: A Looming Folly
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010906I.shtml
Snip..

Conclusion: Is Any of This Possible?

The question must be put as directly as possible: what manner of maniac would undertake a path so fraught with peril and potential economic catastrophe? It is difficult to imagine a justification for any action that could envelop the United States in a military and economic conflict with Iraq, Iran, Syria and China simultaneously.

Iran is suspected by many nations of working towards the development of nuclear weapons, but even this justification has been tossed into a cocked hat. Recently, Russian president Vladimir Putin bluntly stated that Iran is not developing its nuclear capability for any reasons beyond peaceful energy creation, and pledged to continue assisting Iran in this endeavor. Therefore, any attack upon Iran's nuclear facilities will bring Russia into the mess. Iran also stands accused of aiding terrorism across the globe. The dangers implicit in any attack upon that nation, however, seem to significantly offset whatever gains could be made in the so-called "War on Terror."

Unfortunately, all the dangers in the world are no match for the self-assurance of a bubble-encased zealot. What manner of maniac would undertake such a dangerous course? Look no further than 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

George W. Bush and his administration have consistently undertaken incredibly dangerous courses of action in order to garner political power on the home front. Recall the multiple terror threats lobbed out by the administration whenever damaging political news appeared in the media. More significantly, recall Iraq. Karl Rove, Bush's most senior advisor, notoriously told Republicans on the ballot during the 2002 midterms to "run on the war." The invasion of Iraq provided marvelous political cover for the GOP not only during those midterms, but during the 2004 Presidential election.

What kind of political cover would be gained from an attack on Iran, and from the diversion of attention to that attack? The answer lies in one now-familiar name: Jack Abramoff. The Abramoff scandal threatens to subsume all the hard-fought GOP gains in Congress, and the 2006 midterms are less than a year away.

Is any of this a probability? Logic says no, but logic seldom plays any part in modern American politics. All arguments that the Bush administration would be insane to attack Iran and risk a global conflagration for the sake of political cover run into one unavoidable truth.

They did it once already in Iraq.



Goldilox (1/10/06; 04:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 140318)
The Road Ahead - Rob Kirby
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snip:

For those of you who have not been paying attention, there has been a considerable amount written recently about the Fed's announcement to "abolish" the publication of M3 [money supply] data. Most of what is being written centers on the notion that M3 data is going to be withheld to mask visible statistical manifestations of INFLATION.

With the past couple of Mondays falling close on the heels of first Christmas – and then New Years – I've had the occasion to read up a little more on this topic than usual. To kick off the New Year, here are a few snippets of what I've been reading.

Just The Facts…Nothing But The Facts

Last week market pundit - Peter Grandich, gave us his take on a statement by China's foreign exchange regulator re: rebalancing reserves,

Put this statement somewhere and look back in a few years and you will have in your hands a part of history. What this statement says, IMHO, is that China's rapidly-growing foreign exchange reserve, of which an estimated 70 percent is invested in U.S. dollar assets, is going to move away from the U.S. dollar and government bonds and into other areas (one of which, I believe, is gold and why gold has been rallying so strongly).

I wholly concur with Mr. Grandich's sentiment about the significance of this ‘announcement’ and I also share the view that most of the main stream media has been negligent in reporting its importance.

Inflation For The Nation…..And The Rest of the World Too!

Another notable and highly relevant piece that ‘caught my eye’ was Robert McHugh's most recent offering, The Fed's Money Supply Armament is Underway. In this well timed, well researched effort McHugh gets at the heart of the soon to be discontinued M3 issue when he reveals,

M-3 has been launched into outer space, up another $56.3 billion last week, up $92.4 billion over the past two. This is some real horsepower. Over six weeks, the meaningless figure, ahem, is up $177.8 billion. These annualized growth rates are 28.7 percent, 23.6 percent, and 15.3 percent respectively. Those are the seasonally adjusted figures. The raw, non-seasonally adjusted, figure is up $293.3 billion over the past 12 weeks, on a pace to add 1.2 trillion in money to the economy. Wow. There must be a need for this. Maybe the master Planners see a coming need to monetize our debt? To support markets? They tell us the economy is good, so clearly they cannot be stimulating our way out of a recession. There's a lot of money flooding the economy and it has to go somewhere. Right now it is lifting markets.

That's right folks – soon to be discontinued money supply data ALREADY showing annualized growth rates in excess of 28% - and the Fed would have us all believe that this is a non event. McHugh opines that the "master Planners" perhaps see a coming need to further monetize [the] our debt?

In another brilliant piece of reporting, Jim Willie points out how "official" reported GDP figures and estimates are at odds with empirical realities in interest rates [inverted yield curve] and miss the mark by purposely ‘underreporting current inflation,’

….All this blizzard of evidence must be placed against a backdrop of an inverted Treasury yield curve. The 5-yr TBill yield is still below both the 2-yr and the 10-yr TBill yield. The bond market has it right, and fully contradicts the corrupted manhandled falsified GDP economic growth statistic….. It was mostly price inflation, not removed properly, then labeled as growth, aided by hedonic lifts to technology spending, compounded by chain weighting.

Slippery When Wet

I've already pointed out the coincidental timing of the cancellation of M3 data and the planned beginning of trade of Iran's new Petro-Euro Oil Bourse. Recent empirical observations include the following:

The stock market continues to rise - even in the face of tepid job growth numbers.

The price of oil has resumed it's upward climb.

The price of host of other commodities [including gold] has done the same.

Market pundits [like Peter Grandick] are pointing out that the U.S. dollar has now 'put in a technically significant double top.'

All Roads Lead To Rome?

With so much that I read and experience in the real world pointing to the likelihood of a pronounced bout with hyper-inflation in the near future – I thought it would be more than fitting to review an invaluable piece I came across recently, penned by Eric Englund - and titled, Surviving Hyperinflation.

If, and when a hyperinflationary scenario truly unfolds, this paper and related links should serve as perhaps a blueprint or at least a roadmap – providing ‘big picture guidance’ to entrepreneurs, managers and individual investors alike since – in the New Year - we will all likely come ‘face to face’ with the true WMD [Weapon of Mass Destruction]:

Goldilox

Rob ends the article with a picture of his proposed WMD. Well worth the click!




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