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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/10/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Goldilox (8/10/05; 21:34:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 134830)
REAL ESTATE PRICES...HOW FAR IS DOWN? - Christopher Fox
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0810.html
snip:

Reversion to the Mean

Economics borrows a tool from statistics called "Reversion to the Mean." It's a simple concept that explains how prices of goods will at times deviate from the long-term mean price to the upside or to the downside.* But the real value of this concept is in using it to predict future prices because what this tool shows us more times than not is that the elasticity of the deviation is generally equal on both sides of the mean.

In other words, if the price of something increases by 10 points above the mean price, then we find that eventually, the price of that something will fall below the mean by about 10 points for a total of 20 points.

Now, what I find very interesting about Janet L. Yellen's comments regarding the current level of the price-to-rent ratio is that she tells us how high above the long run average it has become. "About 25 percent above its long-run average." She also tells us that this ratio varies from place to place "For Los Angeles and San Francisco, the price-to-rent ratio is about 40 percent higher than the normal level."

Surely Dr. Yellen has heard about the "Reversion to the Mean" concept, yet after she tells us how high the price-to-rent ratio has gone, she fails to tell us that we should expect to see this ratio drop 25 percent below it's long-run average. Or 40 percent below the long run average in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Given this data from Dr. Yellen, we can now surmise the answer to our question of how far is down for the housing market? The price-to-rent ratio should fall approximately 50 percent from its current levels, or 80 percent for Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Let's see if these numbers work in my hometown of North Scottsdale.

My new landlord (who happens to own four rental properties) is refinancing and recently had an appraiser come by the house I am renting. He told me that he was going to appraise the house at about $550,000. Let's assume my landlord decides to lock in a fixed rate and he chooses to go with the current 30 year 5.75% loan. His monthly mortgage payment, not including insurance or any maintenance costs comes to $3,209 per month. My monthly rent payment is $1,900.

So a quick calculation of 3,209 divided by 1,900 gives me a price-to-rent ratio of 1.69.

Let's assume that the price-to-rent ratio in North Scottsdale is somewhere between 25 percent and 40 percent above the long run average as Dr. Yellen suggests in her speech above. I'll pick 30 percent just for the sake of running the calculation.

If 1.69 is 30 percent above the mean, then a reversion past the mean, with a final destination of 30 percent below the mean would allow me to expect that the price-to-rent ratio should drop by 60 percent which should be a .68 price-to-rent ratio.

With this new price-to-rent ratio, I can now work backward to determine what the new value of my rental house will be assuming that my rent stays the same at $1,900.

$1,900 X .68 = $1,292.

$1,292 is what the new mortgage payment should be if the price-to-rent ratio drops to .68.

Plugging the $1,292 mortgage payment into a simple mortgage calculator on the internet at 5.75 for a 30-year fixed mortgage gives me a new property value of $220,000.

So now we can see exactly "How Far Is Down" for any particular rental property.

In this case I should expect to see my current rental house drop in value from $550,000 to $220,000 based on historical mean reversion characteristics.

The real problem lies not in the fact that the rental house I live in will only be valued at $220,000 but rather how fast it falls and what happens when the landlord decides to sell.

This house will become the new comparison for the other houses in the neighborhood and we can expect to see those house values come down also.

-Goldilox

A pretty bleak picture painted by one who still believes in "reversion to the mean."


Goldilox (8/10/05; 21:21:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 134829)
RETORT TO A GOOD ECONOMIST - Jim Willie CB
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snip:

Achuthan stands out among others in pointing out how the explosion known as "globalization" produced price deflation in "tradable goods and services" despite another explosion, that being of monetary expansion. Most economists focus entirely on low-cost solutions, and the benefit to consumers in money saved. I might add that the monetary and fiscal (federal) stimulus has been gargantuan, not cited by Achuthan, so large in volume that a great many good analysts have incorrectly expected for price inflation to result. It has in every past episode, first the flood occurs, then the entry into pipelines, finally end product prices all rise along with worker wages. This time is indeed different, and Achuthan implies that Asian manufacturing in a "tsunami" is responsible for engulfing the monetary effect. One should take a lesson as a student from this point. The human response on monetary inflation is overwhelmed by the natural economic force of Asian industrial overcapacity! Asian factories snuff out the domestic inflation attempt, since the US system has exported that inflation. The US inflation succeeded mainly in the housing market, which could not be exported. It is like most of the US monetary surge was sent to Asia, where it passed through an industrial filter, and returned transformed to the US Economy in the form of cheap finished products. This entire concept was explained in "Export Inflation, Import Deflation."

Achuthan makes a fine parallel with the dotcom boom in 1999 and the housing boom today, something I have referred to in the past (with my 19 itemized parallels). The mild recession was due in his opinion to that dotcom boom lessening the impact of the 2001 recession. He talks of importing deflation. He recognizes the simultaneous monetary influence (he calls it "cyclical upswing") upward in prices, countered by imported price deflation to bring about a tranquil pricing structure. What he overlooks is what I call "cost inflation" whereby most materials, supplies, commodities, energy products, and foodstuffs have risen in price. On the opposite side, the prices which producers are able to sell the finished products are massively influenced by the imported deflation. A profit margin squeeze has occurred, unaddressed by Achuthan, which might be responsible for some of the flattening in the Treasury bond yield curve. Tranquil? Since when is a profit squeeze evidence of tranquility? Add rising health care costs and payroll tax contributions paid by employers, and you have a toxic environment for job growth. This factor is far more prominent to "checking growth in both jobs and wages" than his cited productivity factor.

Achuthan credits strong productivity incorrectly again, in my opinion. Let's be plain. Most mainstream economists earn a "D" grade on productivity comprehension. This topic, with inflation, stands head & shoulders above other topics as primary areas of confusion, poor theoretical grounding, outright deception, with serious downstream consequences from that erroneous base. He believes productivity has resulted in boosting corporate profits. I believe extraordinary money supply growth, extremely accommodative low interest rates, and pathetically easy vendor financing has brought about bigtime growth in corporate balance sheets. The financial sector and financial subsidiaries own the lion's share of that profit growth ending up in balance sheets. Any benefit from the "imported" productivity on corporate profits is severely undermined by the export of the entire supply chain associated with what is imported from Asian factories. Therein lies job loss, flat wages, and the near total destruction of the entire labor union movement.

-Goldilox

Aside from the rhetoric (both pro and con) it's hard to find a thoughtful discussion of the issues it wreaks upon the participant economies.


Goldilox (8/10/05; 21:10:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 134828)
US Treasuries a touch softer on refunding letdown
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-08-10T202814Z_01_N10586633_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-3.XML
snip:

NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt eased slightly on Wednesday after the second leg of the government's quarterly debt refunding auctions drew only meager demand from indirect bidders, including foreign central banks.

The $13 billion in new five-year notes was met with solid overall interest but primary dealers dominated the buying, stoking fears of waning foreign demand for government bonds.

Indirect bids for Monday's three-year note auction were also disappointing, making investors anxious about what Thursday's 10-year sale might bring.

"The auction itself was pretty decent but the foreign participation was lacking," Alan DeRose, a trader at CIBC World Markets, said of Wednesday's sale.

The market was not pleased, and traders proceeded to trim early gains and nudge benchmark 10-year notes 1/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.40 percent, compared with 4.39 percent Tuesday.

The new notes were sold at a high yield of 4.223 percent, and garnered 2.92 times the number of bids per amount of notes on offer, much stronger than the 2.39 percent average so far this year.

The trouble was, indirect bidders took home only $2.79 billion or 21.5 percent of the sale, saddling primary dealers with the rest.

"Given the revaluation of the Chinese renminbi last month people are going to be looking very closely at this statistic. One auction does not a trend make, but if we consistently see lower indirect participation then I think people are going to get worried," DeRose added.

Offshore central banks, particularly those of China and Japan, are huge holders of Treasuries, cornering over a quarter of marketable Treasuries.

This trend is due in part to large-scale currency interventions in recent years that left those countries with excess dollar reserves. These had to channeled somewhere, and Treasuries seemed like the safest bet.

But some investors are concerned that China's revaluation might leave them with fewer extra dollars and therefore dampen their desire to purchase Treasuries.

-Goldilox

Are foreign banks playing "hot potato" in the bond market?

When the music stops the US taxpayer will be the one left holding "the bomb".


Sundeck (8/10/05; 20:02:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 134827)
Hey diddle diddle...
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/10/science/space/10private.html?th&emc=th
"Private Company Plans $100 Million Tour Around the Moon"


You too can jump over the Moon...for a cool $100M...now u kno what u can use your ill-gotten gold gains for...

;-)


Goldendome (8/10/05; 19:58:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 134826)
Who let the Dogs out?
Woof!

Goldendome (8/10/05; 19:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 134825)
Sir Boilermaker
Sorry to hear of yours and daughters misfortunes.
Happy that you could still smile at my friendly ribbing; I'll not go there again. Best in the future. G-dome


White Hills (8/10/05; 18:39:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 134824)
Where are you Audie Murphy?
The Army has announced it has upped the financial incentives and added recruiters in an effort to meet their 11% shortfall in enlistments this year. In addition, it has asked Congress to raise the enlistment age to 42 yrs instead of the present 35 yrs. Yes, lets throw money at the problem and lets raise the enlistment age so that we can get more old guys. Or, better yet lets enlist more women by offering them more perks and higher ranks as well as more money. Under present enlistment regulations a recruit has to have a high school education or equivalent to enlist. Just the one regulation alone would have exempted Audie Murphy, Sgt. York and too numerous to mention other medal of honor, silver star, and ect. winners. As well as ordinary soldiers that includes White Hills. It would be understandable if a high school diploma really meant anything in present times. It certainly is no assurance that the student can even read. I haven't exactly researched it but with some confidence believe that many of the soldiers in WW1 and WW2 probably didn't have a high school education. By using a high school diploma as evidence of the education or intelligence of the recruit, the Army is missing a very large and valuable pool of potential quality recruits. Instead lets give them a test and judge from that ,not on piece of paper that represents nothing but time spent . After all what the Army really wants and needs are soldiers who will obey orders, accept dicipline and do their duty when asked. If the Army really wants to accept all the political correctness they should make the requirement a college educatio and raise the enlistment age to over 65. It certainly would solve the social security problem. White Hills

HOOSIER GOLDBUG (8/10/05; 18:32:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 134823)
REALITY TIDBIT!!
Goldendome: THANKS for the direction.
Boilermaker: The usual scenario in our neck of the woods, SOUTHERN INDIANA, is that the bank bids it up at the shreiff's sale, in essence since they already own the property, they will not let it go for less than the mortgage amount owed! They then list it with a real estate broker, who has done a market analysis on the property, usually high, to get the listing. After it has sat on the market 2-6 monthes, the next step is they then have it reappraised (it was appraised before the auction), but this time they will ask the appraiser for a 30 day or 60 day "quick sale" valuation. Usually the greater percentage of these properties sell for less than the last legitimate bid from the public at the sheriff's sale. It is just the game they play, first to see if they can find a fool to takeover the property at their price/debt owed, and secondly to see what the demand is for the property. KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN! YOU MAY STILL GET TO STEAL THE PROPERTY!


Boilermaker (08/10/05; 17:32:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 134822)
@ Goldendome
Dear Sir Goldendome,
My yacht never existed in reality, only one of my many temptations of the mind. My reality is a tractor with a mower sailing across pastures needing trimming. Today's effort won me a world class bee sting that inflated my upper lip to clown-size proportions. The family was duly impressed and had fun with my misfortune. Perhaps I'll put my silver in the rear tires for better traction.

On a less cheerful note, one of my daughters, a single 40 year old, lost her house in a sheriff's sale last Friday. It was a 110 year-old house in a "mixed" neighborhood that she bought four years ago for $76,000. She had done considerable improvements but kept dipping into the equity to keep herself liquid. She's basically a person who can't handle financial responsibilities and this proved it. I went to the auction to see if I could buy it at a price well below market but the bank was bidding it up to the current outstanding loan value. I decided to let them have it. Better for them to buy back my daughter's debt and try to find a greater fool to take it on. A difficult but necessary choice for a father trying to demonstrate the consequences of poor financial choices.

The sheriff's sale was a real eye opener. They make up about 20% of the real estate transactions in our county. This is Northeastern Ohio and properties are relatively cheap. This will be increasingly played out in courthouses all over the country. The banks will own an increasing percentage of "non-performing" real estate with no market to sell into. It's fascinating and scary to watch the first stages of a depression, like the squiggles on a seismic chart fortelling the "big one".


Goldendome (08/10/05; 17:19:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 134821)
Learning from LTCM
Sir Hoosier: I supose a lot was learned by many from the collapse of LTCM; it was all pretty well out in the open during and after the event. However, I suppose it somewhat like playing Texas Holdum Poker, you can learn alot, be clever and crafty, but if the luck turns against you...then all that guile, cleverness, and knowledge won't save you.

There's a great book on LTCM called, "When Genius Failed" by Roger Lowenstein. It's been in print long enough that your local library should be able to come by a copy for you. The book lays it all out in black and white. Pretty much is just as the title suggests: A bunch of too smart guys that got way ahead of themselves and didn't use proper risk or cash management.


melda laure (08/10/05; 17:12:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 134820)
(No Subject)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-3578.htm
'Lox #134803. The reason you cant find a good label is your choices are too narrow in the modern market of ideas. Today, our choices of label consist of various kinds of pseudofascism: our political spectrum consists of various shades of pink that masquerade as "conservative" or "liberal". Some people like to label the current president as a neo Hitler, which I find amusing since the previous occupant was also variously called "Klintler" and so on. The fox news aficionados wonder how a guy who cut my taxes, wrote new "free trade" CAFTA into law and is pro-market could EVER be called a goose stepping moron but similar things could be said of the previous oval office occupant. The fact that all those "gentlemen and ladies" voted for the patriot act makes them all closet Nazis. Welcome to the era of a kinder gentler fascism. Nelson Hultberg wrote a nice piece.

Too bad. Iran is far closer to democracy than Saudi ever will be.


HOOSIER GOLDBUG (08/10/05; 16:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 134819)
REACHING LIMITS!
If the WASHINGTON AGREEMENT II has been exceeded in the sale of raw GOLD material, are we getting closer to exceeding limits? First GOOD news I have heard this week. Oil prices rising, debt snowballing, etc. and the price of gold is under $850. Did the collapse of LTCM hedge fund teach the manipulators how to keep the train on the track with derivatives, swaps, etc.??? HOPING it derails on GREENSPANS watch! Serves that traitor right! Karma! What goes around, comes around! We don't need to back the currency with gold, because we (central bankers) are acting as if we were on one! I nominate the statement as the JOKE OF THE YEAR 2005.

Goldendome (8/10/05; 16:30:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 134818)
@ Sir Boilermaker

Are you still packing around all that Silver Bullion as disguised ballast in the bottom of your yacht? Updated passport and all-- just waiting for the right moment to make a break?


TownCrier (8/10/05; 16:15:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 134817)
China Discloses Currencies
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2005/08/11/255.html
SHANGHAI, China -- China's Central Bank said Wednesday that the dollar, euro, Japanese yen and Korean won dominated its new reference currency basket, disclosing the contents for the first time since it revalued the yuan last month.

The basket also included the Singapore dollar, the pound, the Malaysian ringgit, the ruble, the Australian dollar, the Thai baht and the Canadian dollar, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said.

Zhou did not detail the proportions or say whether other currencies were included in the basket.

"The currencies in the basket depend on the amount of foreign trade we conduct. The United States, euro zone, Japan and South Korea are our biggest trading partners now."

"Hence, their currencies are naturally the main ones in the basket."

^----(from url)----^

In a related DowJones Newswire article, the following was also reported:

China's three largest trading partners last year, in order, were the European Union, the United States and Japan...

Analysts have debated whether the dollar or the euro might have a larger role in the basket...

The basket makeup doesn't change the large amount of dollar reserves still held by the Chinese central bank, according to some analysts...

China's government will now allow larger domestic companies representing a range of industries to trade currencies with banks and bet on future currency moves in the so-called forward market. These transactions had been limited to [366] financial firms. Firms who export at least $2 billion annually are eligible.

"Chinese policymakers made some more significant liberalization moves overnight by saying that they would allow the start of an interbank onshore forward market," said Steve Barrow, currency analyst in London, with Bear Stearns. "Yesterday, they said that they would allow more bank customers to trade forwards, but the ability for banks to trade forwards between each other in China is much more significant in our view."

"With the value of trade between China and Europe and China and the United States fairly close, we expect the dollar and the euro to constitute very similar weightings in the basket with the Japanese yen tracking not far behind," said Kathy Lien, senior currency strategist with Forex Capital Markets.

She thinks the reserve picture may also change. "This announcement has been and will continue to be very positive for the yen and the euro as China, one of the biggest players in the global-reserve market, gradually aligns its reserve holdings with the reference basket for their managed float.

"We do not expect China to make another move for at least a few months, but what we do see and what we expect to be consequence of China agreeing to revalue, is increased talk of Chinese firms looking abroad for acquisition targets," Lien added.
----

As mentioned before, should a buying-spree commence, there's a huge appetite to be fed by way of uncertain dollars groping toward a sparsely provisioned table.

And there's nothing quite as powerful as gold to fill the void and ease the hunger.

R.


Boilermaker (8/10/05; 15:40:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 134816)
Oil Market
The following article might explain some of the upward pressure on crude prices;

Nigeria identifies 300,000 crude shortfall, output at 2.4-mil b/d

Paris (Platts)--10Aug2005
Nigeria will be unable to implement its 2005 budget due to a shortfall of some
300,000 b/d in the country's projected crude supply to the world market and a
bill to the government of some Naira 112-bil ($813-mil) for subsidizing the
price of petroleum products, Nigeria's finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
said, reported in Wednesday's ThisDay newspaper.

The senate had last week mandated its committees on appropriation, finance,
national planning, and petroleum resources (upstream) to investigate the
revenue profile of the budget vis--vis implementation. "Our initial projection
was for the production of 2.7-mil b/d. According to what the Nigeria National
Petroleum Corp told us, due to the closure of some oil wells which is also due
to community unrest, it has come down to 2.4-mil b/d. I want people to know
that," said Okonjo-Iweala. The country's oil minister Edmund Daukoru earlier
this week said unrest in the oil-rich Niger Delta, with its history of
kidnappings, pipeline sabotage and crude oil theft, posed a major challenge to
oil and gas production.

comment
The oil market seems to be getting a bit bubbly lately. As a small producer I'm all for higher prices, makes my oil to gold conversion work a little faster.



TownCrier (8/10/05; 15:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 134815)
Argentina's Lavagna Defends Weak Peso Policy, Attacks IMF
http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2005080919210011&Take=1
BUENOS AIRES -(Dow Jones)- Argentine Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna attacked the International Monetary Fund and other critics of Argentina's exchange rate policy Tuesday in a speech in which he strongly defended his government's commitment to a weak currency.

...The policy of keeping it weak has required the central bank to buy dollars on a massive scale, pumping fresh pesos into the banking system to do so and creating a risky surge in money supply that's becoming increasingly difficult to counteract with open market operations.

Either the central bank should let the peso rise to remove the pressure on money supply caused by its exchange interventions or it should let interest rates rise, many analysts say. Among these are the staff from the IMF, who recently called inflation Argentina's biggest risk in the medium-term and called on Argentina to allow the peso to strengthen and to tighten monetary conditions.

As it is, lower-than-desired interest rates are making inflation-fearful investors unwilling to lend to the central bank in anything more than the shortest maturities in the weekly note auctions it uses to manage money supply. That's creating a balance sheet rollover problem and is ensuring that the monetary base remains high, helping to further stoke inflation concerns in what some see as a vicious cycle.

The consensus forecast is now for inflation to hit 11% by year-end...

Lavagna warned against taking interest rates too high Tuesday, fearing that it would undermine the exchange rate goal.

"We need to avoid allowing the increase in interest rates that they (the IMF) are proposing from creating a self-fulfilling prophecy where the increase in interest rates is followed by inflows of speculative short-term capital which forces a revaluation in the peso and increases returns in dollars," he said.

^-----(from url)----^

It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up world...

It needs a good foundation -- as discussed yesterday.

Pick the right path, walk the 'Gold Trail', choose gold (for individual savings and for international reserves).

R.


Goldendome (8/10/05; 15:33:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 134814)
DJI all over the place today
Man-o-man, did you take a look at the action on the DJI today? That the players were whipped around like the tail on the old homecoming snake dance is no kidding. They went from the outhouse to the penthouse and back to the outhouse. Looks like 3 swings during the day of well over 100 points each; finally ending about 120 points down for the day. Significant? Only time can answer.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (8/10/05; 15:11:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 134813)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday Market Excerpts

August 10 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York finished higher on Wednesday, with speculative buying the dominating factor amid a weak dollar and strong crude prices after Tuesday's rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

COMEX December gold contract gained $2.20 to close at $442.

Futures firmed as the dollar slumped to a two-month low vs. the euro after markets digested the Fed's latest increase to benchmark interest rates.

A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors because the dollar-denominated metal gets cheaper for non-U.S. buyers.

Gold also often benefits from rising oil prices as some investors use the market as an inflation hedge.

Crude hit a record $65 a barrel on Wednesday, hoisted by a rally in gasoline prices.

News that Belgium's central bank said it had sold 30 tonnes of gold in July and August failed to dampen gold's mood. The sales took place within the framework of the central bank gold agreement. The bank said it had 227.7 tonnes of gold after the sale and would not sell any more gold this year.

(from MarketWatch) -- "The smart money worldwide has already been converting increasingly worthless pieces of paper currencies into 'increasingly worth-full' pieces of precious metal," said John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter.

"That process is accelerating."

"The Fed's multi-decade deliberate policy of running a 'well-managed hyperinflation' is becoming less 'well-managed'," he said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)----


Cage Rattler (8/10/05; 14:51:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 134811)
Saudi 'repatriation'
I think the rumour mill spun out of control and twisted the facts over this so-called story. The original wire via Reuters is as follows (and you'll notice the same amount being mentioned too):

DUBAI, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Gulf Arab governments and private investors are likely to buy over $360 billion of foreign assets in 2005 and 2006, financed by record oil revenues, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).


Topaz (8/10/05; 14:46:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 134810)
Access action
NY Comex Access action of this magnitude is a rare event and augurs well for PoG short-term.
Those BCB sales don't come close to satisfying demand here and unless someone else steps up, we could be in for quite a ride.
IMHO.


otish mountain (8/10/05; 14:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 134809)
Gold
Could it be that Central Banks will have to step up to the plate with more physical sales now that there is a strike in S.Africa?
It was Another that said to the effect that if physical sales dried up it would be bullish for gold. Without mining production in South Africa this could cause a lot of unrest for the bankers keeping the price down, hence the increase in paper sales.
Just thinking alloud.


Goldilox (8/10/05; 13:11:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 134808)
UnoCal approves Chevron bid
CNBC just announced that UnoCal shareholders approved the Chevron takeover bid today.

UnoCal mgmt will stay only for the transition period, and receive buyouts equal to 2-3 years salary + equal "bonuses", along with health benefits and all their stock will vest.

Not a bad premium for selling the company!


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/10/05; 12:52:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 134807)
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Goldilox (08/10/05; 12:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 134806)
Belgian Gold sale
@ Boilermaker,

Limit, sclimit! Those financial collaboraters NEED their shiney or they'll start whining!

I'm not selling mine, and you're probably not selling yours, so the banks will just have to sell more of theirs!


Boilermaker (08/10/05; 10:37:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 134805)
Belgian Gold Sale
http://za.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-10T113132Z_01_ALL041388_RTRIDST_0_OZABS-MINERALS-BELGIUM-GOLD-20050810.XML
snip
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Belgium's central bank said on Wednesday it had sold 30 tonnes of gold in July and August, leading to an increase in the yield on its assets.

"These gold sales took place within the framework of the gold agreement (the 'Central Bank Gold Agreement') which was concluded between 15 European central banks," it said in a statement.

The bank said it had 227.7 tonnes of gold after the sale.

comment

Was this reported earlier? If not, doesn't this put WA II over the limit?


Goldilox (08/10/05; 10:26:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 134804)
Illegal Aliens
@ While Hills,

The US citizens took the southwest mostly by virtue of overrunning the indigenous and Spanish colonials. The reverse is now in play here, as it is in Europe.

I watched the Border Patrol mgmt asking for more budget on CSpan the other day, and they had not one non-Latino in their upper eschalon.

The melting pot sometimes gets a little hot to the touch!


Goldilox (08/10/05; 10:20:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 134803)
Politics
@ White Hills,

Now don't you go getting soft on me!

I don't wanna hear any whining when it becomes more obvious that the bums are manipulating a whole lot more than hedonic financial numbers.

By the way, I am no more enamored by the so-called left. Crooked politics is not an invention of the NeoCons. They're just a little better at it these days.

There probably isn't a political label that fits me well, but I imagine something like left-leaning libertarian. If that's not oxymoronic, I don't know what is.

Even baseball is churning my stomach these days. Felipe Alou is boycotting the Giants flagship station because one of the hair-brained commentators called the team a bunch of "brain-dead Caribbean hackers". Not particularly smart, for sure, but unfortunately true. I've never seen a bigger group of free-swinging strike out artists that just happen to be mostly Caribbean nationals. Now it's turning into a RACISM controversy. My Oh My!

As BB likes to quip: "What interesting time we live in."


White Hills (08/10/05; 10:20:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 134802)
What next?
As reported in the Los Angeles Times ( Los Angeles Hard Times as I call it) illegal aliens now receiving home loans in California legally. Egads! what next? White Hills

Goldilox (08/10/05; 10:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 134801)
Current Volcanism
http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/current_volcs/current.html
For all you NatSci buffs, here's a page documenting current activity at the world's most active volcanoes.

I've found EQ information easier to locate thanks to the USGS, but this is interesting too.

Enjoy.


White Hills (08/10/05; 10:02:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 134800)
Be Nice
Sir Goldilox, I suppose I should be nicer to you. A little liberal politics isn't oo much to put up with considering all the information you furnish on any given day. Keep it up, we all are watching. White Hillsd

Goldilox (08/10/05; 09:49:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 134799)
Gold Chart
@ Gandalf,

Check out the NetDania Gold chart at the ten minute interval I mentioned in my earlier post.

You know how most "walls of worry" climb slowly up and correct very quickly?

This one is the opposite. It jumps and corrects very methodically, like correcting is a lot of work!


Gandalf the White (8/10/05; 09:21:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 134798)
Sir Goldilox
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
The US$ chart is showing that the 88.00 level is now a BARRIER and that instead of WATERFALLS we now have a cascade of RAPIDS !!
I think that I like the RAPIDS as much as WATERFALLS.
<;-)


968 (8/10/05; 09:06:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 134797)
Belgium sold 30 tonnes of gold in July and August.
http://www.nbb.be/pub/01_00_00_00_00/01_06_00_00_00/01_06_01_00_00/20050810+Goudverkoop.htm?l=en&t=ho
The Central Bank of Belgium (NBB) reported today that it sold 30 tonnes of gold in July and August.

Goldilox (8/10/05; 05:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 134796)
Reverse HS
My old VP of Sales had a "technical term" that might fit the Reverse HS.

He called it "A$$es and Elbows" - referring to sakesman's entry tactics.

OK, I am up WAY too early - back to bed!


Goldilox (8/10/05; 04:55:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 134795)
Gold Chart
http://www.netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp?symbol=XAUUSDOLITEx%7Ctenfore
Classic Reverse Head and Shoulders on this one at 4AM PDT

Set "time scale" to "10 minutes"


Goldilox (8/10/05; 04:50:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 134794)
Daily euro vs. US$
http://www.netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp?symbol=EURUSD
Check out this chart for some interesting symetry!

Click "time scale" and switch to "Daily".


Goldilox (8/10/05; 04:43:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 134793)
Food for thought on Saudi funds repat
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
snip:

We reported to you on Monday that the Saudi's are making no secret of repatriating $360 billion from the US to other places closer to their home. After consultations with Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com, I've come to consider the Saudi moves one of the most interesting of the past six-months. Just collecting the headlines puts it in perspective:

July: Saudi Foreign Minister resigns
August: King Fahd dies
US shuts down embassies over terror threat
Oil prices hit record

What would drive the Saudi's to pull out their money from the West without so much as trying to hide it from the public? A number of disturbing possibilities come to mind, but the two that are at our top of the heap are a pending Saudi production decline or perhaps the Saudis have a "heads up" on a financial disaster to come.

We see the theme of the Saudi's "suddenly" (*over a few months) "running out" of oil as prospect #1. Not that they will actually run out, per se, but they will likely according to industry experts like Matt Simmons, run into huge problems with water cut. The only way the Saudis have been able to maintain their current production levels is to inject huge amounts of seawater into down wells in order to push oil up out of extraction wells. Fine, as long as it works, but the difficulty comes as the oil field being exploited reaches its end-of-production zone. Here, what happens is instead of pumping in 18-million barrels of seawater to "pressurize" a field (and extract say 10-million barrels of oil), the amount of seawater required increases by a factor of 2, 3, even 6 or 10-times what is being pumped now.

The disturbing idea is that the Saudis have the mental horsepower to plot out the increasing problem of water cut and figure more or less precisely where they are on the production/decline curve. Then we ask the logical question, "If you knew that your oil had indeed peaked, and would never go to higher production than it is today - something that would crash and trash the inflated Western Economy, especially the housing bubble in the US which is almost entirely auto driven - wouldn't you get your money out of harms way before you got run down by your own oil problem? We think there's a very good chance this is what is presently in play.

The other alternative is that the Saudi's have gotten a heads-up (again a long lead time - long enough to move money around) that the US would be hit with another 9/11 type event this fall, and thus they are moving assets in advance. Although this seems like the less likely of the two possibilities, it still much be considered because the move is undeniably occurring, and the forces of militant Islam, of the improvised explosives variety, not my Islamic colleagues and friends who are every bit as committed to a peaceful world as I am, have tipped off their money sources in the Kingdom with long lead time.

-Goldilox

It's tough to know, as the Saudis keep their oil numbers "proprietary", so George offers a few hypotheses of his own.


Goldilox (8/10/05; 04:31:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 134792)
Previous post
For the "Gold is money" folks, this a clear-cut case of "Money talks and BS walks!"

Goldilox (8/10/05; 04:29:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 134791)
Gold up in Europe, shrugs off rate rise
http://today.reuters.com/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050810:MTFH97818_2005-08-10_09-07-29_L10425882:1
snip:

LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Bullion firmed in Europe on Wednesday, taking an expected hike in U.S. interest rates in its stride and was seen consolidating recent gains and looking to currency markets for short-term direction.

The U.S. central bank lifted its funds rate for a 10th straight time to 3.5 percent on Tuesday and said more "measured" increases were likely. The Fed gave no signal it would soon wrap up the credit-tightening campaign launched last year.

Silver managed to drag itself away from a two-week low scored the previous day, while platinum and palladium were little changed.

By 0851 GMT, spot gold was at $435.20/436.00 a troy ounce, firming from New York's late quote on Tuesday of $434.30/435.10.

Higher interest rates can be negative for gold as they increase the cost of funding a long position or the opportunity cost of holding an asset that yields nothing.

"I just think the opportunity cost for holding gold gets more expensive after every (Fed) meeting," said Simon Weeks, director precious metals at ScotiaMocatta.

"I would still prefer to sell rallies and I still think the wheels will come off the bus at some point."

But some analysts said the link between gold and interest rates was much weaker than generally perceived.

"We continue to believe that rising interest rates will not prevent a continuation fo the gold price rally which began in April 2001," Alan Williamson of HSBC Bank said in a report.

He also noted the current net long position on the New York gold futures market was some three million ounces heavier than when Fed tightening began.

In the shorter-term, gold would find it tough going to crack back through last week's five-week high at $439.10.

On the downside, buying was seen emerging around the 200-day and 100-day moving averages at $430 and $427 respectively.

-Goldilox

Jawboning the price down just isn't working - DARN!


Goldilox (8/10/05; 04:25:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134790)
Mining industry cannot afford strike or wage demands, says Harmony
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/companies.aspx?ID=BD4A78164
snip:

The wage increase demanded by the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) was unaffordable, and if the union did not moderate its demands a prolonged strike would result, Harmony Gold CEO Bernard Swanepoel said on Monday.

He was responding to questions about the industry-wide strike that began late on Sunday, after the presentation of the group's results for the quarter and year to June.

Swanepoel said the package of demands by the NUM took their position closer to 15% than 10%, while the package offered by the mining groups would cost them 6%-6,5%, which is significantly above inflation. The mining industry could not afford a strike, but neither could it afford the increases demanded by the unions, he said.

-Goldilox

Looks like the SA miners are caught between the proverbial "rock and hard place."


Chris Powell (08/10/05; 01:30:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 134789)
From GATA's Gold Rush 21: The Dawson Declaration
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3256
The summary and conclusions of the conference.



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