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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/10/2004
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Goldilox (03/10/04; 23:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 118419)
Not my first view
@ TC:

Not guilty, your Honor! I read it at N&V first; I just really enjoyed seeing it on another site.

Goldilox (03/10/04; 22:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 118418)
Venezuela retains US firm's gold in mines crackdown
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040310/minerals_hecla_3.html
snippet:

"CARACAS, Venezuela, March 10 (Reuters) - Venezuelan authorities said Wednesday they had retained about $2 million of gold produced by a U.S. mining company in a crackdown against illegal exports, but the company said the case was an administrative mix-up.

Hecla Mining Co., the largest private gold producer in Venezuela, said it was in full compliance with Venezuelan tax, export and regulatory laws. National Guard troops Tuesday took away 5,400 ounces of gold, produced by Hecla for export, from a secure warehouse in eastern Bolivar state.

Gen. Alberto Betancourt, the National Guard commander for the Bolivar region, said his troops moved the gold to Central Bank custody because Hecla had failed to clear up so far apparent irregularities in export and tax documentation.

"Up to now, everything points to them (Hecla) having some serious deficiencies," he told Reuters.

Tom Fudge, the head of Hecla's Venezuelan operations, said the company was cooperating with the authorities.

"This is just an administrative misunderstanding and we'll get things sorted out shortly," he said.

"They've made a request for documents, we'll fulfill that and we'll be delivering those documents soon."

Goldilox:

More messes in Venezuela! It gets stickier daily!


TownCrier (03/10/04; 22:43:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 118417)
Goldilox, you'd have found it a lot sooner if you were a regular visitor to MK's News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
"All the gold news that's fit to link"

R.

Goldilox (03/10/04; 22:40:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 118416)
The New Gold Accord
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/kosares/2004/0308.html
Look what I found!

MK, I know you're not fond of the limelight, but I agree that Puplava's site is a very worthy forum - as is yours!

Cheers!





Goldilox (03/10/04; 22:36:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 118415)
Why Pt?
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381661793&p=1012571727207
snippet:

"Platinum reached another 24-year high spurred by Japanese speculative buying after stronger than expected domestic growth data stimulated investor demand for industrial metals. More platinum is used for catalysts in motor vehicle exhaust systems than for jewellery, or any other industrial use."

Goldilox:

Japan's export dominated economy MUST ensure a ready supply of platinum and palladium for catalytic converters!


Goldilox (03/10/04; 22:28:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 118414)
Moose Market
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2004/0310.html
snippet:

"The history of capitalism tells us that cycles are the norm; indefinite business trends simply are not. The stock market isn't any more likely to go straight up forever than it is to go straight down forever. Cycles occur because of temporary imbalances in supply and demand, imbalances that eventually correct themselves. 96% of the world's population lives in emerging markets. They have 26% of the GNP.

Peace put 2 ½ billion people in the world labor market. India and China alone contain over 2 billion consumers. Suppose each of the 2 billion people consumes a mere quart of gasoline per week as their economy booms; that's an additional 1.7 million barrels a day, new demand that is sure to increase price. Today, China is booming. They have declared the national bird to be the construction crane. Last year China's factory floor produced 50% of the world's cameras, 35% of the TV's and 30% of the refrigerators sold worldwide. In the last five years china went from exporting oil to the second largest importer in the world. The Chinese will go from walking to bikes, to motorcycles and to autos. They will need oil and gas, chemicals, forest products and metals. At 80 cents per hour they are deflating manufacturing costs, but as they become more successful, they will throw away their bicycles and buy motorcycles and eat better, increasing the demand for raw materials.

In the first 6 months of 2000, China's oil imports increased 100%. The Chinese eat less meat in a year than we eat in a weekend. Raw materials are now close to their lowest prices in history. Tops and bottoms are creatures of extreme. Markets rise above all rational expectation and then go higher and then they fall farther than common sense suggests. The most desirable investments for the future might not be in cyber space, but back to the basics.

By the end of 1998 the only drilling rig in Texas not laying on its side was at the Midland Petroleum Museum. Oil in 1982 was $28 a barrel. Allowing for 3% inflation, that would equal $47 a barrel today. In 1981, there were 4,530 oil rigs operating in the U.S. Today there are 1,000, up from 500 in April of 1999. It takes a long time to add to capacity. Aggressive EPA regulations have so discouraged refinery construction that there is no major refinery operating today that is less than 27 years old."

Goldilox:

A great article by Clyde Harrison, founder of the Rogers Raw Material Fund.


monTROZ (03/10/04; 22:26:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 118413)
Silver historic data
Since others have been digging up old data long since archived. Here's data for "SI00" the continuous silver contract which I have going back to mid 1996. It's not Spot, it's the front month adjusted for cotango. I don't know the exact formula for the adjustment.

Date Open High Low Close
07/16/1997 4.32 4.335 4.18 4.185 Bottom
01/28/1998 5.925 6.09 5.82 6.06 Start of spike
02/05/1998 7.38 7.40 6.88 7.265 Peak

More interesting to me than the precise high is the run rate. July '97 to February '98 was 204 days at 0.015 $/day. Pennies per day!! The real move was at the end of the run, Jan 28 to Feb 5, a move of $1.20 in 8 days including 1 weekend, or 0.20 $/trading day. The current run looks like.

06/05/2003 4.48 4.51 4.48 4.50
03/09/2004 6.92 7.20 6.92 7.18

That's 278 days at about 0.01 $/day. Slow and steady, if you ignore the daily fireworks.




Sundeck (03/10/04; 22:05:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 118412)
Gandalf #118381 - US dollar hot-air balloon and the Japan MOF
Yes Sir Gandalf, a very good question?

The Japanese Ministry of Finance has already spent this year more than half what they spent all last year keeping the Yen down against the dollar. How long can it last? Some people speculate that intervention may ease after the end of the Japanese fiscal year (end of March).

Others speculate that it will continue indefinitely, in order to position the Yen lower to allow room for appreciation if the Renminbi becomes linked to a basket of currencies.

But then, China is now running a trade deficit, so it is not at all clear which way the Renminbi would go when China becomes sufficiently confident of its financial system to let its currency compete internationally.

Looking at gold, perhaps not surprisingly it is appreciating against the Yen (about 12% since major intervention started last September); but not smoothly...

Greenspan is probably right in saying that predicting FX moves is impossible...unless you happen to be a "market maker"...which the Japanese MOF is undoubtedly. The question is: "When do they stop firing the burners that keep the US-dollar-balloon aloft...bouying up and drifting down...up and down...until it clips the tree-tops...or gets caught in an updraft of irrational exuberance??"

Japan's fiscal deficit is currently about 1.5 GDP...much greater than the US'...but who cares...it's only paper (or polymer, or 1s and 0s whizzing around on a computer disk...

What we do know, of course, is that ALL fiat currencies lose altitude eventually until they get lost in the trees...

;-)

Sundeck

steady (03/10/04; 21:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 118411)
elasticity to provide for condensability
townieeeeeeee
u say
In other words, it's better to have a bird in the hand (something) which may get fatter (real capital gains), than to "have" two birds in the bush (promise-money)

i think gold wont get fatter as its uniquness in that it has hte capability to expand , elasticicity, while at the same time condense your weatlh, not get fatter but thin itself down
gold: condensnceing the essecne of fiat scripts message:
WORTHLESS

Goldilox (03/10/04; 21:50:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 118410)
Dubya's speech today
I haven't found the link (not worth the effort), but I caught a clip on CNBC where he compared his "programs" to FDR's saving the economy during the Great Depression.

Now THAT's scary!!

Gandalf the White (03/10/04; 21:45:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 118409)
Let me too WELCOME you Sir Founders !! <;-)
Founders (03/10/04; 19:33:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 118401)
First Post
===
I am seeing the POO and therefore GASOLINE (together with most other commodities) heading to new highs and that can only cause one thing in MHO ----
INFLATION !!
As more people take any job to earn SOMETHING to try and keep their ship afloat. Things are seeming to be not getting any better for MOST of the sheeple.
BUT, some are starting to remember my discussions of GOLD !
<;-(


Goldilox (03/10/04; 21:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 118408)
Most Dangerous Man . . .
http://www.the-moneychanger.com
@ knotacare:

Follow the posted link. Then click on "Who is the Moneychanger" for his story.

Sanders was mentioned in one of the articles in today's Prudent Bear postings, as well, so that amounts to another supporter.

Founders (03/10/04; 20:59:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 118407)
R Powell


Thanks for the welcome! Yes, Gold to me equals freedom. Gold is the protector of truth and freedom and liberty. It may sound corny but it is true. Once that is grasped then one can't stand holding paper money vs. precious metals.
"the hidden confiscation of wealth" vs. the protector of wealth. Interesting battle.

TownCrier (03/10/04; 20:48:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 118406)
After all of that, let me underscore another point...
When it comes down to the issue of "income", or perhaps more properly said the issue of "earnings", I would rather trust to a growth of my portfolio of wealth through the market's deigning of capital gains upon my real property (such as gold) than through the expectation of interest payments upon notional, derivatized credit/debt (that is, on money--such as it is).

In other words, it's better to have a bird in the hand (something) which may get fatter (real capital gains), than to "have" two birds in the bush (promise-money) which, prior to flying away, may not even create any eggs for the nest (real interest).

It is a choice we all must face. All, or nothing, or somewhere in between.

R.

Clink! (03/10/04; 20:41:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 118405)
Dow finally tumbling ?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dji&sid=0&o_symb=dji&freq=1&time=7
The DJI cut through both 25 & 50 day MA like a hot knife through butter this week. Same with SPX and IXIC. The VIX is even more spectacular, going from an all-time low around 14.5 last week way back up to 18.7 - and the curve appears to be accelerating.
C!

R Powell (03/10/04; 20:33:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 118404)
Founders
Hello and welcome!
We hear your warning that the average Jill + Joe may have trouble maintaining their present standard of living when what are considered essential expenses rise in cost while incomes stagnate.
This was one of the main points in Batra's "The Crash of the Millennium". He believed that wages would not keep up with increasing costs (devaluing currency). I believe it will prove prophetic but it's progress will be gradual except for those poor souls who lose their good paying employment and can find only lower paying jobs. The American public has proven that they will accept more revolving debt rather than fewer comforts. The next generation has an even more ingrained sense of entitlement and less willingness to "live small" as Trapper often advises. This bothers me as many believe that it's the government's function to provide life's necessities and even more rather than just provide the liberty in which each can get an equal chance to prosper (or not if one so chooses).
I often equate the right to own gold as a symbol of individual rights versus an ever increasingly intrusive central government. Gold and politics...never separated very far, are they?
Rich


TownCrier (03/10/04; 20:23:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 118403)
Wide Awake Club (msg#: 118370) -- Treasury "default" on 30-yr bond holders
I believe August 5th of last year (2003) was the first occassion that I addressed this sort of Treasury operation at the Forum. The premature bond call that you've cited today is the sixth such operation that I am aware of in which the Treasury exercised its prerogative to cease making interest payments on a targeted group of bonds. The following was the call for redemption that I cited in my example last summer:

Start--------
The Treasury today announced the call for redemption at par on August 15, 2003, of the 8-3/8% Treasury Bonds of 2003-08, issued August 15, 1978, due August 15, 2008. There are $2,103 million of these bonds outstanding, of which $1,314 million are held by private investors. Securities not redeemed on August 15, 2003, will stop earning interest.

These bonds are being called to reduce the cost of debt financing. The 8-3/8% interest rate is significantly above the current cost of securing financing for the five years remaining to their maturity. In current market conditions, Treasury estimates that interest savings from the call and refinancing will be about $270 million.

Payment will be made automatically by the Treasury for bonds in book-entry form, whether held on the books of the Federal Reserve Banks or in TreasuryDirect accounts. Bonds held in coupon or registered form should be presented for redemption to financial institutions or mailed directly to the Bureau of the Public Debt.
-------End

The other bond call that I cited last year was this one effective November:

Start----------
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
The Treasury today announced the call for redemption at par on November 15, 2003, of the 8-3/4% Treasury Bonds of 2003-08, issued November 15, 1978, due November 15, 2008. There are $5,230 million of these bonds outstanding, of which $3,322 million are held by private investors. Securities not redeemed on November 15, 2003 will stop earning interest.

These bonds are being called to reduce the cost of debt financing. The 8-3/4% interest rate is significantly above the current cost of securing financing for the five years remaining to their maturity. In current market conditions, Treasury estimates that interest savings from the call and refinancing will be about $870 million....
-------End

Of the six operations I mentioned earlier, here are the details of the other remaining four Treasury bond calls, representing a premature sort of "default" to the unwary investor were as follows.

#1) A call for redemption at par on May 15, 2000, of the 8-1/4% Treasury Bonds of 2000-05, issued May 15, 1975, due May 15, 2005. There are $4,224 million of these bonds outstanding, of which $2,047 million are held by private investors. Securities not redeemed on May 15, 2000, will cease to earn interest.

#2) A call for redemption at par on February 15, 2002, of the 7-5/8% Treasury Bonds of 2002-07, issued February 15, 1977, due February 15, 2007. There are $4,234 million of these bonds outstanding, of which $2,668 million are held by private investors. Securities not redeemed on February 15, 2002, will cease to earn interest.

#3) A call for redemption at par on November 15, 2002, of the 7-7/8% Treasury Bonds of 2002-07, issued November 15, 1977, due November 15, 2007. There are $1,495 million of these bonds outstanding, of which $1,022 million are held by private investors. Securities not redeemed on November 15, 2002, will stop earning interest.

#4) A call for redemption at par on May 15, 2004, of the 9-1/8% Treasury Bonds of 2004-09, originally issued May 15, 1979, due May 15, 2009. There are $4,606 million of these bonds outstanding, of which $3,109 million are held by private investors. Securities not redeemed on May 15, 2004 will stop earning interest.

Technically these are not defaults, but they almost certainly smell like a default to the typical trusting investor who doesn't normally read the fine print on these things and naturally assumes that a 30-year bond is a bond is a bond... a binding obligation of the United States government for 30 years.

Unless market rates soon move higher, we can probably expect more of this sort of thing to continue, at least for the next five-and-a-half years. Because, up until 1985 some of the bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury were callable (with four months notice) within 5 years of maturity -- to the interest-termination effect documented in the cases above.

On a semi-related note, another, newer tool in the Treasury's interest-rate arsenal is the legislation made effective January 2000 in which the Treasury may engage in buybacks at any time of outstanding, unmatured marketable Treasury securities. Since March of 2000, there have been 45 such interventions (thru April 2002), all of them, not surprisingly, mopping up the long end of the spectrum.

To reiterate a point I made a couple weeks ago, market rates are something that are probably best taken with a grain of salt.

R.

Dollar Bill (03/10/04; 20:17:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 118402)
.,.
Aristotle?

Founders (03/10/04; 19:33:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 118401)
First Post

Hello fellow Goldbugs! This is my first post on this board. I just wanted to say that I've always admired this board for the quality posts and posters. Hope I can contribute some to the conversation.

My thoughts tonight are on deflation. I've been leaning more towards a deflationary scenerio over the last few months but the market action over the last few weeks leads me to believe more and more that deflationary forces are indeed taking hold. Deflation can be good or bad. In a classic gold standard economy we have good deflation as prices slowly declined due mostly to technological advances. (plow and mule to tractor,etc.). In a fiat based monetary system deflation is primarily a function of imbalances which cause overcapacity. This overcapacity is usually the result of "easy money". Today this is rampant in our economy both domestically and internationally. But the biggest area of overcapicity is in the labor market (India,China).

What I see is deflation in labor wages due to manufacturing overcapacity as well as labor overcapacity. The continued easy money is now flowing into commodities which is causing inflation in food,energy and durable goods. The result is a financial squeeze for the average American family - and they are making up the difference with debt. Very few American's want to give up their standard of living.

As to what this all means to gold and silver? I beleive that money/cash "do best" in a deflationary environment and gold and silver are the only true money.

Thanks for letting me spout off.

steady (03/10/04; 18:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 118400)
whats in store, certainly will not be a bore, especially if the $ gets tore
perilous delarious
no u cant scare us
nothing new under the sun
its all been said and done
but amusment and fun you do cause
for me to sit up and take a pause
to develope a new cause to watch the effect
the revial of the dormant gold sect
called from above form below
anywhere a voice can go
thru a mind
in an ear
to hear the sound of a saying
honest money gold and silver for honest people
from every economic stepple
to awaken the shepple.
to avoid a doom and gluum
its a trip as the dollar goes rip rip
while the percoluating double bouble of trouble drips currency specific bpombs on wrong footed derivative intrest rate spreads that got dem bankers seeing red
but with rose colored glasses and reading from a bed well they say nope it aint dead not yet, now thats a put bet!
individuals be getting his ship in order
avoid fiat border out the sorter, avoid the chaff gather the wheat tell everyone u meet that silver and gold ownership is neat
some u will meat while they are sitting on their seat others while both on there feet but the mind meating a silent greet as with the gleam in the eye you will understand why, an old tardtion
one held back in submission
now no longer seeking permission.
a role to play its voice will be heard with what it has to say
gold and silver as money is on the way.

Cytek (03/10/04; 17:52:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 118399)
REFI'S are FLYING
My wife the morgage loan officer says the phones are ringing off the hook. Everybody who missed the rate drop between last june and july are wanting to refi, and guess what, they all want more cash out. Filled those credit cards up to the hilt they did.

I told her the $TNX has just started to fall , i pulled up a chart and drew a few trend lines and told her to take it to the office, i mean bank and post it. She doesn't think the $TNX will retest the lows of last year. Ha, i told her it will and i bet Greenspan will pull another rate cut out of his hat if stocks continue to meltdown. I'll bet Joe 401k is getting a little worried right about now and might want to lock in last years profits and move money into treasurys. Well that's if Joe 401K is smart. If he was real smart he would borrow on his 401K at the low rates and buy that yellow metal.

Cytek

knotakare (03/10/04; 17:26:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 118398)
@Goldilox:The most Dangerous man in the Mid-south
Goldilox, would you please provide a link to the article you summarized. This link doesn't seem to contain the article you quoted.

TIA

Remarx (03/10/04; 17:24:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 118397)
Apologies
Sorry, I should have just ignored the OT post -- but sometimes its hard...

goldquest (03/10/04; 17:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 118396)
What Do You Do?
First, what does this have to do with gold? Second, as we would say out here in the West, who would be stupid enough to bring a knife to a gunfight?

Remarx (03/10/04; 17:07:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 118395)
@nickel62
Review your history. Scapegoating and vilification of liberals and progressives was the beginning of nazism in Germany and fascism Italy. Conservatives were manipulated then, much like they are today, into serving the purposes of the controlling business elite -- and you may regret your intolerance someday as much as they did a few years on.


nickel62 (03/10/04; 16:03:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 118394)
So true..
Subject: Are you a liberal? A conservative? Or a Southerner?

Answer the following question:

You're walking down a deserted street with your spouse and two small
children. Suddenly, a dangerous looking man with a huge knife comes around
the corner, locks eyes with you, screams obscenities, raises the knife, and
charges.

You are carrying a Glock .40, and you are an expert shot. You have mere
seconds before he reaches you and your family.

What do you do?

Liberal Answer:

Well, that's not enough information to answer the question. Does the man
look poor or oppressed? Have I ever done anything to him that would inspire
him to attack? Could we run away? What does my wife think? What about the
kids? Could I possibly swing the gun like a club and knock the knife out of
his hand? What does the law say about this situation? Does the Glock have
an
appropriate safety built into it?

Why am I carrying a loaded gun anyway, and what kind of message does this
send to society and to my children? Is it possible he'd be happy with just
killing me?

Why is this street so deserted? We need to raise taxes, have a paint and
weed day and make this a happier, healthier street that would discourage
such behavior.



Conservative Answer:

BANG!



Southerner's Answer :

BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG!






Boilermaker (03/10/04; 15:27:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 118392)
El Paso Emulating Enron
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/melissadavid/10147918.html
snip;
The giant energy company (EL Paso) warned on Wednesday that it could be restating years of financial reports in order to properly account for a huge cut in reserves that stunned investors last month. In the meantime, the company has postponed its fourth-quarter earnings release -- originally slated for Thursday -- and the filing of its latest annual report until the completion of an internal audit. It is currently seeking waivers from its lenders to address the likely restatements and filing delays.

comment
Unravelling this one should be fun to watch unless you're an EP shareholder.

Goldilox (03/10/04; 15:23:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 118391)
Ag mainstream
CNBC's Heckle and Jeckle just interviewed the CEO of Pan Am Silver and Bill Fleckenstein about the "unexplained" commodities bull. Larry responded, "What will it do to gold and silver if this dollar rally continues for another 5-10%?"

They answered that the current 5% dollar rally hasn't really cooled the metals bull so far!

Duh, Larry!



Goldilox (03/10/04; 14:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 118390)
The most Dangerous man in the Mid-south
http://www.the-moneychanger.com/
Featured as this month's Silver-Investor article of the month, Franklin Sanders tells of his grueling battle with the IRS and the State of Tennessee over running a small store selling gold and silver as money.

As usual, the goon squads showed up in full SWAT regalia with automatic weapons to scare his neighbors and seven children instead of serving the warrant in a civilized manner.

His entire Presbyterian church was arrested on conspiracy charges, with the prosecutors claiming that he was involved in successionist military activities for claiming "Gold and Silver are money".

A good read for those with strong stomachs. I might have dismissed this as somewhat inflammatory, but I have pretty strong respect for David Morgan's integrity.

R Powell (03/10/04; 14:46:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 118389)
Boilermaker // Olden days of yesteryear
If we narrow the search down to Feb. 5th only, I have no problem since I still have my copy of the Feb. 6th Wall St. journal that I was using in those long ago days for price quotations. It gives the preceding day's (Feb. 5th) numbers...

The March contract opened at 701.0, traded as high as 747.0 and as low as 688. The close was 728.0. Interestingly, the future months were all in backwardation. I remember this day as it was on the 5th that I sold a March 625 call option for $5500. I had bought it a few months earlier for $175. This was my first big "hit" in the casino. I then invested that money in long term (december) calls in grains thinking that El Nino would bring that big dome of high pressure (drought) over the country's breadbasket. Not so, the crops were plentiful and my $5500 was gone. I was very new to trading at that time, that is, over the years, I have learned how to lose my money at a much slower rate. (g).

The exact numbers are really of little consequence, except perhaps, to chartists who will try to predict tomorrow's prices from yesterday's. What is interesting, to me, is the difference and discrepancies among recent reports. I often have to remind myself that the vast majority of people have no economic knowledge and even less than no interest in the subjects that we here find so fascinating. I'm sure many of us have found this to be so in our everyday activities (off-line). Imho many so called "experts" must comment when called upon but may have little knowledge or information to draw upon. I don't classify all in this group, but many. I have heard this same opinion from pit traders who are often called upon to explain price swings. Often, they are as amazed and confused by the day's activity as are we, but they don't answer thusly, of course.

From that same Feb. 6th WSJ...nearest contract

Coffee 181.95
Sugar 10.89
Corn 271.75
Copper 76.40
Natural gas 2.383
Crude oil 16.58
Brent Crude 15.22
5 yr. Treasury Note 109-23
And Gold 299.50

TownCrier (03/10/04; 14:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 118388)
Germany, now France, fighting "brain drain" with gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040310/france_gold_3.html
PARIS, March 10 (Reuters) - France may consider selling some of its gold to help finance scientific research ... Research Minister Claudie Haignere said on Wednesday.

The Bank of France ... had no immediate comment on Haignere's suggestion, which echoed an idea floated for Germany by Bundesbank chief Ernst Welteke and backed by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

France's conservative government, dismayed that 2,000 scientists have stopped carrying out their administrative work, has earmarked three billion euros for research in 2005-2007.

It hopes to staunch a "brain drain" of researchers, mostly towards the United States, but has not said how it will fund this.

"We have to find the means to finance the future research. That could be the Bank of France's gold, it could be the funds we get from privatisations," Haignere told Europe 1 radio in an interview.

-----(from url)-----

The pieces and players are begining to fall into place following Monday's announcement by Europe's central banks to extend their coordinated gold agreement for the next five years to the tune of 500 tonnes per year.

Bidding for brains, bidding for oil... I have no ideological problem with this potential "spending" of the nation's gold savings. Fair is fair. No government should expect to get something for nothing.

R.

mikal (03/10/04; 14:28:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 118387)
Iraq copper bars
The truck in the photo, like other reports, is inadequate to carry gold bars in the quantity shown. The wheels and suspension would snap right off or be crushed because it was never designed to handle a load exceeding vehicles gross-rated carrying load.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (03/10/04; 14:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 118386)
Enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html





Calidor (03/10/04; 13:43:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 118385)
Goldilox - Iraqi Gold
Sir Goldilox - I can't speak to any Stars & Stripes article on any Iraqi gold. However, some months back I received an email with picture attachments that was making the rounds through the military community. Gold (or something a whole lot like it) was found in an Iraqi fuel truck around last July. I've forwarded the email w/ pictures to Sir MK to view and assess. Sorry I can't post the pictures but maybe CPM can plce the pictures somewhere on the website. Also if Randy the sitemaster doesn't mind, you can have my email address.

Calidore


Text follows

"UNCLASSIFIED
Read and THEN check out the photos!

Here's a good story from an event that occurred here in Babil a couple of months ago (actually July 3): At approximately 301000Z Jul 03, the governor's brother, Ahmed Abu Saif) Witwit, who is in charge of city hall security reported the following information to Task Force 1/4 XO,
Maj H(……): Three days ago, local police stopped a fuel truck because it had improper license plates. The driver was released (NFI why), and the truck impounded at the government's truck lot.

This morning, the governor's brother received an anonymous phone call, offering 15 million Iraqi Dinar for the fuel truck. The governor's brother claims he declined the offer, mustered six security personnel, and proceeded to the impound lot. At the impound lot, they inspected the vehicle.
There were 6 padlocks that sealed the fuel storage tank. The fuel storage tank was empty of fuel but allegedly had "some sort of metal bricks". The truck was taken to city hall and turned over to Major H(……).

The truck was subsequently brought to Babylon. Here are the pictures of what was in the fuel truck. Sounds like a movie script."


Boilermaker (03/10/04; 11:57:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 118384)
1998 Silver High
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june98/silver_2-25.html
Rich,
Here's a site with another number:
"Silver did reach a high of $7.61 an ounce on February 5th. Today it was down to $6.01."

It's at the end of the transcript of a discussion from the Jim Lehrer Newshour of 2/25/98. It's a good historical dicussion and I'm sure you'll enjoy the Wizard of Oz connection.


Goldilox (03/10/04; 11:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 118383)
Volume
@ Gandalf

The BOJ action makes me think of a joke my DAD used to tell me about business.

CFO: We're losing $0.10 on every widget we sell.
VP Sales: It's OK, we'll make it up in volume!

Goldilox (03/10/04; 11:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 118382)
DX
@ Gandalf:

Nice to see how concerned they are about "Excess volatility"!!!!

Gandalf the White (03/10/04; 11:26:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 118381)
QUESTION --- What would the US$ do WITHOUT the ESF ?
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
Look at all the concentrated pump times!
AND some think that the BOJ is playing a losing game !!
CAN this last until Nov. ?
<;-(


Goldilox (03/10/04; 11:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 118380)
Bank "Glich"
Went to my bank to get some cash today. A representative met me at the door to explain that they were unable to transact business today (except deposits by check)due to system-wide computer outage. his is the second largest consumer bank in the US, not a local yocal bank.

Then I went to the grocery store, where they have a branch inside. The lights were out and no one was working the branch at 11:00AM.

FINALLY, I went to my credit union and got some money from my personal account, as my business banking is dead for today!

Banking holidays coming?

Dollar Bill (03/10/04; 11:18:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 118379)
.,.
snippets
"Bereneke, (The economy is suffering because people aren't buying enough stuff!) admits "The gold standard appeared to be highly successful from about 1870 to the beginning of World War I in 1914. During the so-called 'classical' gold standard period, international trade and capital flows expanded markedly, and central banks experienced relatively few problems ensuring that their currencies retained their legal value." So it worked well! *****So something happened, he says, between 1914 and the Depression.

He does not admit, however, that the newly formed Federal Reserve system, in operation for fifteen short years, had anything to do with subsequent calamitous economic events. The simultaneous appearance of these two things were, I suppose, merely a, you know, huge coincidence or something.

Besides needlessly upsetting the natives, and causing more unwelcome complaints, the Govt has another BIG reason to "asjust" the Consumer Price Index........
The index affects the income of almost 80 million people as a result of statutory action: 47.8 million Social Security beneficiaries, about 4.1 million military and Federal Civil Service retirees and survivors, and about 22.4 million food stamp recipients. All would get increases in money.

A Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation study, which shows that health-care costs premiums have surged 42% over the last three years for employees and families. Hewitt Associates is projecting a further 15% hike for 2004. But the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that health care costs only increased by 3.6% in 2003." So let's see: health care premiums have surged by 43% in three years, and are projected to rise another 15% this year, and yet the government figures that healthcare costs have only increased 3.6% last year?

"Over 5 decades, my countrymen switched from making things to buying things, from saving money to spending it, and from lending money to the rest of the world to borrowing from it. The economy gradually changed from production to consumption, from manufacturing to retailing, from GM to Wal-Mart. And Wall Street mutated, too...from investing in industries, to investing in speculative finance."

The price of rice in China, a staple, is up around 40% from this time last year.

So let me see if I have this straight: real, inflation-adjusted incomes are falling, which means I have less purchasing power to start with? Next, prices are rising, meaning that the few measly drags of purchasing power I have left will not buy as much? And government statisticians are lying to me? Fabulous. Absolutely fabulous."






Goldilox (3/10/04; 10:22:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 118378)
DX - GLD-SLV relationships
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=w
Interesting to note that a 1.5 rise in the dollar has hardly moved POG at all, and POS is still rising. Efforts at holding gold below $400 are not very effective, and every rise in the DX means less arbitrage profits for US exporters.

Socrates964 (3/10/04; 10:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 118377)
Silver
I may be reinventing the wheel here, but has there been a discussion on whether a spike in silver will bring Comex crashing down?

Here's my likely scenario:

1. Ag goes ballistic. The longs demand delivery.
2. The shorts can't deliver and go down on their knees for help to the exchange officials.
3. COMEX officials decree cash settlement only, with stand-by credit lines agreed for the shorts behind the scenes.
4. THere may be some legal wrangles over expiring contracts, but essentially the credibility of the COMEX silver future is destroyed and henceforth, the only market is a cash settlement spot physical market probably based in London.

I offer this as a kind of essay question, with the word 'Discuss'.





Goldilox (3/10/04; 09:57:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 118376)
Social Security / Retirement reform
@ steady:

Actually, if all federal and local government retirement was tied to SS, lots more would change. Double and triple dipping by people who "retired" from two or three government/military jobs can net them more than their average salaries while working, while they collect SS in addition.

A major problem in the US is being created by the effect of "public servants" being elevated above citizenry. Note the conviction of Martha Stewart for "lying" to an FBI which regularly covers up much of its "not for public consumption" activities under the guise of "National Security".

Only have citizen status? Better get gold, as Social Security offers about as much hope as the Xmas Bunny.

R Powell (3/10/04; 09:51:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 118375)
slingshot // gold/silver connection..?
I just caught up on the rest of yesterday's posts. Congrats on the recognition! The tales are greatly entertaining and remind me of the "Conan" works of Howard. Many have tried to imitate Howard but I could always tell his words from those of other Conan tales by Lin Carter and L. Sprague deCamp. I believe you would enjoy them and might learn some literary tricks from Howard's works. His imagery was most powerful. Most of his were originally published in the 1930s.

Does silver rest here to get used to being above $7.00? When the POG first broke above $400, I thought that silver couldn't stay below $6.00. Now, I wonder if silver can remain above $7.00 for any length of time without gold making new highs?
Like the gold/silver ratio and the soybean/silver mystic connection, I tend not to put too much credence in the old silver/gold precious metals connection but like grandma's old chicken soup remedy for a cold, sometimes old traditions retain some validity, no?
Question for soybean traders: Do you feed chicken soup to chickens who are sick with the bird flu??
Rich

steady (3/10/04; 09:24:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 118374)
(No Subject)
GET A BILL STARTED TO PLACE ALL POLITICIANS ON SOC. SEC.

2004 Election Issue!!

This must be an issue in "2004". Please! Keep it going.

----------------------------------

SOCIAL SECURITY:

(This is worth reading. It is short and to the point.)

Perhaps we are asking the wrong questions during election years.

Our Senators and Congresswomen do not pay into Social Security and, of course, they do not collect from it.

You see, Social Security benefits were not suitable for persons of their rare elevation in society. They felt they should have a special plan for themselves. So, many years ago they voted in their own

benefit plan.

In more recent years, no congress person has felt the need to change it. After all, it is a great plan.

For all practical purposes their plan works like this:

When they retire, they continue to draw the same pay until they die.

Except it may increase from time to time for cost of living adjustments.

For example, former Senator Byrd and Congressman White and their wives may expect to draw $7,800,000.00 (that's Seven Million, Eight-Hundred Thousand Dollars), with their wives drawing $275,000.00 during the last years of their lives.

This is calculated on an average life span for each of those two Dignitaries.

Younger Dignitaries who retire at an early age, will receive much more during the rest of their lives.

Their cost for this excellent plan is $0.00. NADA....ZILCH....

This little perk they voted for themselves is free to them. You and I pick up the tab for this plan. The funds for this fine retirement plan come directly from the General Funds;

"OUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK"!

From our own Social Security Plan, which you and I pay (or have paid) into, -every payday until we retire (which amount is matched by our employer)- we can expect to get an average of $1,000 per month after retirement.

Or, in other words, we would have to collect our average of $1,000 monthly benefits for 68 years and one (1) month to equal Senator Bill Bradley's benefits!

Social Security could be very good if only one small change were made.

That change would be to jerk the Golden Fleece Retirement Plan from under the Senators and Congressmen. Put them into the Social Security plan with the rest of us ... then sit back and watch how fast they would fix it.

If enough people receive this, maybe a seed of awareness will be planted and maybe good changes will evolve.




R Powell (3/10/04; 09:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 118373)
POS high for 1998
Another source (INO) gives a number of 750....

May silver was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it
consolidates some Tuesday's rally, which led to a breakout above last
Monday's high crossing at 7.03. The breakout opened the door for a test
of monthly resistance marked by the 1998 high crossing at 7.50 later this
year. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 6.893 would signal that a top has likely been posted.
Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early day
session trading.


Dollar Bill (3/10/04; 08:46:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 118372)
.,.
A link from MK's page:
"Snow said: "But no currency can be considered strong if it is propped up on life support with intervention."
"I'm not sure what Snow was trying to say," Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda told a regular press conference.
Pressed on whether Snow was criticizing Japan, Fukuda said: "There are various points of view. I won't respond to every remark."
*Surely we here know that the snow comments were not meant to change anything in regards to the support of the dollar. So what is he really saying? Who is the target audience? Not japan, not china, When Bush jawboned about China changing its peg, that was probably just to appease the EU complaints. Give appearances that the US was not doing what it was doing.
This snow comment is part of the strategy of keeping things looking like we support the old model while we keep moveing to the total control model. Part of strategy of the CB's is to keep the markets guessing, keep objections to a minimum, while moving us to the United States of Earth.

Slingshot, your post was a total high. Glad to be any part of supporting the artist in our midst. Only drawback to praise, and I know this is one of the reasons I hesitated to ever comment before, sometimes public attention alters a persons innocent focus. Thus the audience intrudes too much, altering the expression and fun of the writer. Heres hoping you just continue to be you:)

I was staying at a Swiss Re bankers house last week, he had a book on Great English Houses. Besides the pictures of the masterpieces, were stories of the nature of the homeowners. What was remarkably consistant was that those that amassed great wealth while thier neighbors were poor, aquired what one 30 year therapist to hollywood calls SAG. Situationally Aquired Gradiousity. Narcissism. YOU are better than your fellow man. Surely this plague has infected the Upper Dust of our era. That the one world plan benefits the rich over the common man and makes our children "associates" in the post next depression world should not hit the radar screens of those running the show afflicted with SAG.


Noble1 (3/10/04; 08:26:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 118371)
How to Make a Bad Number Look Like Something Good
Check out this spin on the trade deficit by Jeannine Avera,AP.

Snip
"WASHINGTON (March 10) - America's trade deficit mushroomed to a record $43.1 billion in January as sales of foreign-made goods posted their second best month ever, a fresh sign of better economic times in the United States."

So all we have to do is buy more and sell less abroad to get ourselves out of this mess? Easy!!!

Remember: All for gold and gold for all.

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (3/10/04; 07:56:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 118370)
U.S. Treasury to Default on 30-Year Bond Holders
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/news/item.php?keyid=7694&page=1
January 23, 2004

The U.S. Treasury will default on contracts with investors, mostly individuals, who loaned the government money in 1979 on the agreement that they would receive 9.125 percent interest every year until their bonds mature in the year 2009.

No longer will politicians and appointed bureaucrats be able to brag that the United States has never failed to live up to its obligation as the safest investment in the world. Investment is no longer guaranteed.

The Bureau of Public Debt announcement claims that this recall applies to about $4.6 billion in 30 year bonds issued on May 15, 1979 and calls for their redemption by May 15, 2004. Of course, investors holding these bonds are not forced to cash them in and can hold them until 2009 if they want, but they will no longer receive the interest promised, the main reason for investing their money in the first place.

That means that if you loaned the government $10,000 in 1979 you will lose $912.50 a year, $4,562.50 in the next 5 years, in interest you would have been due from the government—before the government decided to back out of their end of the contract.



Goldilox (3/10/04; 07:55:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 118369)
Options
Interesting to note this morning. Gold majors are down with POG, but options on NEM and GG are up for APR thru JUL. Mayhaps the word is out that price suppression will fail soon?

Boilermaker (3/10/04; 07:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 118368)
Take a Peek at Coal Prices
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html
snip;
"Although the Coal News and Markets report has been suspended temporarily, the graphs of Average Weekly Coal Commodity Spot Prices and Monthly Production are being resumed, without analysis.

A notice of any further changes will be posted on EIA's Coal web page."

comment,
I see that the EIA has taken a cue from the folks at BLS and are suspending their Coal News and Markets Report "temporarily" in the face of extremely rapid price increases. No sense trying to analyze a market that is acting "irrationally".



Goldilox (3/10/04; 07:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 118367)
Stars and Stripes
@Nickel62:

What's Stars and Stripes got to say about the Iraqi trucks full of gold? They certainly should have the internal contacts for some in-depth reporting.

Boilermaker (3/10/04; 07:18:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 118366)
Trade Gap
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20040310/bs_nm/economy_trade_dc
snip,
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $43.1 billion in January, as rising oil prices helped keep imports near historic highs and exports retreated slightly despite the weaker dollar, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said on Wednesday.

The monthly trade gap was larger than the mid-point analyst estimate of $42.1 billion. Average prices for imported oil leapt to $28.55 per barrel in January, the highest since March 2003.

comment
I'm curious how gold will act today. Silver, platinum and Palladium all hitting new high ground along with a lot of other commodities.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (3/10/04; 06:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 118365)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MK (3/10/04; 06:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 118364)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Lead Story:

Central Banks Will Struggle to Fulfill Gold Accord Quota\Central Bank Gold Accord Positive for Gold Financial Sense/Michael Kosares
Central Bankers Sign New Accord on Gold
Joint Statement restricts sales, leases

Top Stories Wednesday:

Snow criticizes Japan currency interventions, Fukuda bristles, Reuters
Are huge deposits a thing of the past, theMineWeb
World oil prices seen stronger for longer, Reuters
Gold bull has hardly started, Newmont's Pierre Lassonde interviewed/theMineWeb
Gold to go higher on geopolitical instability, dollar weakness (Opinion), Finance Asia

Top Feature Stories:

New!Collision Course
Inflation, deflation converge in the American economy/Jim Puplava/Financial Sense
New! Money, Gold and the Great Depression by Ben Bernanke
New! Random Thoughts on Gold by David S. Neyer / Financial Sense University
Quick but interesting argument for gold ownership
Heading for a Fall by Fiat?/The Economist

And more. . . . . .

Be informed. Stay informed. At the link above.

Clink! (3/10/04; 06:19:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 118363)
Nothing new for Forum readers, but ...
http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2004/tst030804.htm
it sure is nice hearing it from a Congressman. I wonder when he will start asking embarrassing questions about the PPI ?
C!

steady (3/10/04; 05:34:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 118362)
thats LIFE
GOLD AND SILVER: giving life and economic viability to everyone who choses to use it. be confident knowing when the people lead the govts will follow! There will be no turning back, there will be no white flag honored for fiat currencies sorry its a dawin type of thing only the strong survie. The hawk the rooster and the tiger will see to it! the sun and moon shining together!

nickel62 (3/10/04; 04:57:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 118361)
Maybe we should be more afraid of badly trained and motivated reporters than the terrorists?
In Michigan, the Ripoff That Wasn't
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DefenseWatch


Ed Offley, Editor of DefenseWatch magazine, has been a military reporter and defense specialist for 22 years in a variety of journalism assignments throughout the United States. DefenseWatch is an online magazine that addresses military and security issues from the viewpoint of active-duty and reservist component personnel and veterans.

Offley previously served as Editor-in-Chief of The Stars and Stripes after the civilian-owned newspaper was acquired by Stars and Stripes Omnimedia Inc. in March 2000. A 1969 graduate of the University of Virginia, Offley served in the U.S. Navy in Vietnam before joining The Virginia Gazette, Williamsburg, Va., as a reporter in 1972. He worked as an editorial writer at three newspapers in Virginia during 1977-85 before joining The Seattle Post Intelligencer as an editorial writer in 1986.

Offley, 55, lives in Panama City Beach, Fla., with his wife, Karen, and daughter, Andrea. Contact: dweditor@yahoo.com.


March 8, 2004


By Ed Offley

I have great news to report: Barry Bernhardt did not get ripped off.

The story appeared on the AP wire the other day, got picked up by the Drudge Report, and was the buzz of military and veterans' communities all across the nation: A public school teacher called up for active-duty training with the Navy had been forced by his employer to pay out of his own pocket for a substitute teacher to replace him while he was serving overseas.

The gist of the coverage was this Michigan public school administration telling Bernhardt, "Going off to defend the country? Here's the bill - pay up."

When I read the AP article I could feel my blood pressure spike. I'm sure every veteran, reservist, Guardsman and active-duty military person who saw the story had the same response: Who are those idiots in that @#$#% school district and what do they think they are doing?"

Deep breath: Here's what really happened.

Bernhardt is a middle school teacher in the Kenowa Hills School District near Grand Rapids, Mich. He is also a member of the Navy Reserve, and like other part-time military people, must juggle his civilian and family responsibilities with the demands of the service.

So when Bernhardt recently prepared to travel to Italy for 15 days of annual training (which would force him to miss two full weeks of school), he contacted his employer to arrange for a substitute teacher for two weeks and to ensure that the paperwork was in order for his leave from work.

Under the 1994 "Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act" (USERRA), Bernhardt's employer must save his job position for him upon completion of his military duty. The law focuses on re-employment rights of Guardsmen and reservists summoned to active duty. But the law, experts say, does not require a civilian employer to pay the employee a nickel of his or her civilian salary while away on active service.

Here's what Kenowa Hills School Superintendent Jim Gillette and his staff actually did: They approved for Bernhardt to use up two days of leave and two comp days during his absence (which means he gets paid his normal salary of $342 per day for those four days away). For the other six days of work, instead of receiving nothing from the school district, he will receive his regular pay ($342) less the cost of the substitute teacher ($75) and his Navy pay ($100), for a net increase of $167 per day. Of course, he continues to receive all other benefits from his civilian employer under USERRA provisions.

"Legally they don't have to do that," says Gary Aten, a retired National Guard lieutenant colonel who serves as Michigan's executive director of the organization, Employer Support of the Guard and Reserve. "Legally it would be an unpaid leave of absence."

Aten added, "This is commendable for them to do that."

What happened to create this overnight internet feeding frenzy was a combination of public misunderstanding and a local news reporter's inadvertent dousing of the fire with gasoline.


When the Kenowa Hills School District held its regular meeting on Monday, a handful of local teachers and residents - misinformed over the nature of the agreement Bernhardt and the district had reached - accused Gillette and his staff of ripping off a patriotic and dedicated teacher.

Then the local reporter made a bad situation appear worse when she erroneously wrote that the district was actually taking money from Bernhardt's military pay as well.

Faced with an escalating uproar, Superintendent Gillette posted a lengthy statement on the district's website regarding the teacher, which said in part:

"The salary and benefit arrangement worked out by Kenowa Hills goes above and beyond what the [USERRA] law requires and what other area school districts and private employers are doing. The law only requires employers to provide unpaid military leave. Since salaries in the public schools usually exceed military stipends, military personnel called to duty often lose funds as a result of their service. Other area schools either place personnel on unpaid military leave or make up the difference between their military pay and their school salary."

"We did this," Gillette explained, "because we wanted to support those serving our country through providing both a flexible and positive option."

I have a confession: Like every other journalist, I love a good train wreck. I also take a secret pleasure when someone in an office of serious responsibility steps on a rake and meets the handle on his forehead with a loud klong.

In the case of Kenowa Hills School District and Barry Bernhardt, we got neither. Instead, we have a supportive and enlightened employer going above and beyond the requirements of the law to help a teacher and part-time trooper who himself is serving us all.

That's not as much fun as a 10-car derailment. It is a much better story.

Ed Offley is Editor of DefenseWatch. He can be reached at dweditor@yahoo.com







Topaz (3/10/04; 04:15:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 118360)
@Survivor.
Your definition would be close enough anywhere on earth BUT America. You KNOW "you're" experiencing inflation domestically...but as the World reserve Currency, the Dollar supply (a huge portion of Global trade flows "through" the $...not to mention feeding the BigFloat Beast) is not keeping up with demand.
We are about to re-enter a Twilight-Zone of sorts where Yields on Bonds (as a barometer of "flation") are so low that the temptation to move to Cash may prove overpowering.
If you ponder the implications thereof - (futures discounted to Cash)- not a very rosy outlook emerges...a Hyperinflation of the first order.
Take heart Survivor, The tacit impression one gets from Mr Greenspan seems to say - "I haven't yet begun to Fight!"

specie-man (3/10/04; 02:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 118359)
silver, China, what's happening ?
First off, a review of how I see the economic situation currently:

It seems that half the analysts/economists see inflation ahead and the other half see deflation ahead. The US Federal Reserve is trying to walk a narrower and narrower tightrope between the two camps.

What I see looming ahead is "hyper-stagflation". Actually, just an intensified version of what we've been experiencing for several months now. Strong inflation in the price of goods and materials, but a weak economy with little or no job/wage growth.


Now the main topic :

Ok, I've read the claims that "China has already locked up 75% of 2005 world silver production".

But no one seems to have dived into this topic deeper.

My question is: How ? If true, HOW has China "locked up" that silver. Did they buy a bunch of far-out COMEX contracts ? I don't think so - if they had, then those contracts would probably be priced much higher than near-term contracts.

If they've bought it from producers, then what mining/recycling companies are conducting FORWARD SALES ???

The other possibility is the following :
China has been a net seller (supplier) of silver to the world. If they're planning to stop exporting silver (or maybe importing some), that might account for a 75% "swing" in silver supply/consumption.



Topaz (3/10/04; 02:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 118358)
Dollar, Bonds and Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?d=LOW&go.y=13&r=&p=D&b=line&s=dx1%21&s=gc1%21&s=fvxy&s=tyxy&go.x=12&v=
There seems no end to the Dollar strength, returning to turbo boost again yesterday (DX up...yields down). PaperGold holding on to 400 for grim death. Higher Oil no doubt contributing.
Bears (pun!) watching intently.

Gandalf the White (3/10/04; 01:06:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 118357)
Notice to Townie ---
You better start digging a LARGE ROOM in the HOF for the forthcoming COMPLETE SAGA of the "Midas Crusade" ---
I think that it is soon coming to a CHAPTER ending --- THEN I think that the "story continuation" will start again, (my crystal ball says!)
Sir Slingshot is perfecting the old Weekly Serial movie!
<;-)

mikal (3/10/04; 00:59:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 118356)
Golden football never pulled a "capital overhang", Charlie Brown!
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040305-050436-1180r
The Bear's Lair: Charlie Brown economics
By Martin Hutchinson
Published 3/8/2004 11:24 AM WASHINGTON, March 8 (UPI)
[Excerpts reprinted with permission under Fair Use Doctrine of International Copyright Law]
"Every month, bullish Wall Street pundits predict that the monthly employment report will show gains of 150,000 jobs or more, the number needed to begin absorbing the 2.2 million jobs lost since President George W. Bush took office. Every month the economy, like Lucy, whips away the football and Wall Street falls flat on its face."

"The United States, far from being the economic dynamo that its admirers like to paint, has been living hugely beyond its means since 1995, and now faces severe problems of budget deficit, balance of payments deficit and capital overhang."

"Expect the economic figures that appear over the next few months to produce primarily negative surprises, as Wall Street analysts fail to realize the depressing reality of today's economy. Judging by its performance Friday, the stock market will largely ignore these negative surprises, maybe for some months to come. Probably by the summer, however, the truth will dawn that the tax cuts and monetary stimulus have failed to cause a true recovery, and that even the Bank of Japan cannot bail out the U.S. economy forever. When this realization dawns, you can expect optimism to turn to panic, and Charlie Brown to turn on Lucy and pound her into the playing field!"

[There was a time when certain things were taken for granted, such as a distant dream could be an everyday reality with honest effort and a will to succeed. Today that has not changed, yet the leadership remains oppresive and dull.]

TownCrier (3/10/04; 00:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 118355)
"Perfecting the renminbi's formation mechanism..."
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040309/economy_china_yuan_1.html
BEIJING, March 10 (Reuters) - China's efforts to reform its rigid yuan exchange rate regime...

"Perfecting the renminbi's formation mechanism does not necessarily mean a revaluation," the Financial News quoted Guo Shuqing, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as saying.

----(from url)-----

A subtle public step toward 'The Gold Trail'?

R.



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Thursday February 9
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