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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/10/2004 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Goldilox (1/10/04; 23:23:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 115085) Bush Plans To Call for Settlement On Moon http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2311-2004Jan9.html Yep, that's how high the POG is going!"To the Moon, Alice." Dollar Bill (1/10/04; 23:22:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115084) *>* Sir Denarius, the line "There are a lot of people in the U.S. who are tee'd off to the max, very angry." Made me think, hmmm, I dont think they are teed off to the max. We shall see the max, but I think it will be when the financial world upends in some way and the societies find themselves way out on a limb as that is where we really are.Spoiled? oh yes, impatient? yup, nuts, you bet. Blissfully papered over? Correct again. When that fails, well then we will see max.It always seems attractive, that impulse for heroics, a former poster here seemed most pleased that those around him viewed him with "awe and intense respect", but as it doesnt satisfy him, heroic radicalism qouted in your post also wont find satisfaction.Reading revelations and forums with angry posters will darken your day. It is actually sunny. Our dilemmas are hair raiseing and annoyingly human, but sunny. It is a heaven hell mix, a blend... it is fun to paint it black and shoot at it, but on closer inspection, turns out to be different than we first thought. Goldilox (1/10/04; 22:18:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115082) FR and DE Yeah, we agree on much of it. Thanks for the extra history. Follow The Money! Dollar Bill (1/10/04; 21:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 115081) *>* Sir Goldilox, "Fr and De "aligned" with Russia and Iraq after 1998 when the UN sanctions allowed the trade of oil for Euros, long before GWB's recent invasion plans."I do believe the france iraq connection goes back quite a ways futher. Chirac and saddam go back till at least the 80's. Letting the oil trade in euros in 98 was the price the us had to pay to get the french and german un cooperation to extend the iraq embargo. Not saying that they were wrong to try to help themselves, just that alliances seem to be based solely on benefit rather than a drive toward a cooperative one world govt. And the un noise about "unilateral action" is a false front by them when they themselves are not targeting a global one govt. It is just a handy front to use against thier opponent.Which is good news actually, because I share your concerns about what that one world govt motives are and how it would affect our liberties. Hence my posting in response to your posts. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/10/04; 21:25:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115080) Prospective Clients: Enter the market with grace and confidence. http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Dollar Bill (1/10/04; 21:04:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 115079) *>* China.."A random inspection of 152 mainland enterprises by the Ministry of Finance has found that every one of them falsified their accounts.Some of the worst abuses were reported at a dozen privately run companies.The probe, conducted last year on reporting for the 2002 fiscal year as part of a crackdown, had revealed falsified assets totalling 8.58 billion yuan on the companies' books, the finance ministry said."The paper world is so untrustable. Goldilox (1/10/04; 20:33:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 115078) POG Comparo Thanks Denarius:We've brushed that subject a couple times past, but yours was the clearest comparison. I remember buying my first house for in 1979 for $52K, right during a Silicon Valley 40% price appreciation. That house is about $450K now (2BR, 1 BA, 1100Sq Ft), about 20X its price in the pre-Intel 1970's. that probably fits your 33X for the 50's OK.-G Denarius (1/10/04; 20:22:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 115077) @21mabry (msg#: 115058) - PM Swaps 21mabry (1/10/04; 14:48:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115058)Has anyone based there investment strategy on trading the gold silver ratio to increase their positions?Perhaps I don't understand the concept of "... basing their investment strategy on trading ..." other than sector changing in equities. With all metals and other commodities rising in unison I see no sector differentials to profit from. (I am surprised this subject hasn't been covered at length in prior posts.) Here is related info from an earlier post of mine. Denarius (1/10/04; 11:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115049) ..... Minor correction - I have no opinion on where the Au/Ag ratio is headed; my 50/1 ratio is just where acquisition was temporarily ended by the rapid price rises. It will change by swapping if/when the ratio goes above 80 or below 40. Maybe not. ..... I should add that I have done only one swap of gold for silver when there was a large differential i.e. >80. There was a second opportunity to do that last year but I decided it was too risky that time. I had the worry that we were on the 'moon shot' then. The commissions/markups were gladly paid since they were very low. Does that help? Denarius (1/10/04; 20:21:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 115076) @Merlinsen (msg#: 115053) - POG Comparison http://bullandbearwise.com/GoldOverlayChart.asp Merlinsen (1/10/04; 12:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 115053)Comparing current gold with the late-1970s gold bull marketWhat everyone seems to be forgetting is that the dollar has been inflated through all the intervening years. All such chart comparisons should slope the plotted line to show this. Perhaps an example. To account for REAL currency inflation of the dollar over the last fifty years I found the construction cost of a house built in 1953 and the sale price of that same house in 2003. Until it sold it was occupied by the original owners. It was truly representative and ordinary in every way. No complications from adding a swiming pool or anything. The neighborhood was in the same economic strata all those years. In short, it was the perfect example for my calculation - since houses contain such a wide variety of materials and labor that are representative of the economy in general. Bottom line: Sale Price / Constr. Price = 33 times. As a confirmation, the new owners' annual salaries figured out to be thirty-something times the original owner's salary. Notice that two salaries are required today for the same house / living standard as fifty years ago. I knew when I came across this info last year it would come in handy some day. Well, here we are. So, if gold was $35/oz back then it should have been $35 X 33 = $1155/oz last year just on the basis of currency inflation. I guess it is difficult to appreciate the fact that what we refer to today as 'dollars' are in reality 1950s three-cent-papers. (That is why I paid $1.25 for a nickel candy bar the other day.) It's that simple when you do the math. The difficult part is accepting these numbers into your consciousness. That takes a while. So, how does that $1000 POG look now? Pretty conservative, wouldn't you say? Another way to look at it is that last year's price of $350/oz is only 10 times the $35/oz from yesteryear instead of the 33 times = $1155/oz it should have been in 2003. So what's wrong with that POG? You think some one was suppressing the price or something! >>>>>>>>> Got Gold? Good. Get More. It's Cheap. <<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>> (and they're still taking paper for it) <<<<<<<<< Goldilox (1/10/04; 19:57:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 115075) Fr & De @ Dollar BillFr and De "aligned" with Russia and Iraq after 1998 when the UN sanctions allowed the trade of oil for Euros, long before GWB's recent invasion plans. There was no economic reason for them to support the invasion, as the infrastructure of the Iraqi oil business was already theirs. From their point of view, the US invasion was more about taking the Euro oil concessions away as any political mumbo jumbo.They weren't supporting Saddam - they were scrambling to save their oil supply.They really didn't grock our great demonization of Saddam. After all, Reagan-Bush-Rumsfeld admin called him their answer to the Ayatollah, the "great liberator of Islam". Remember "Give 'em Hell Ollie" illegally selling him arms and then getting pardoned by Ronnie?Follow the oil and gold money - politics is only an entertaining illusion.-G Goldilox (1/10/04; 19:36:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 115074) Bush I @ Dollar Billyour post: "Bush 1 was seemingly a wimp to hear him speak, but he was very crafty and smart. And he didn't have a one world utopian let's share mindset"Bush the Elder was CIA Director (read: National Security Council) before serving as Reagan's Veep. His teams waged covert war all over South America under the cover of "drug enforcement", including the assassination of Chile's Salvador Allende, who threatened to trade with the Soviet block if the IMF would not leave Chile. They replaced him with General Pinochet, the butcher of South America. Certainly not a let's share ANYTHING mindset! Dollar Bill (1/10/04; 19:25:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 115073) *>* The US wanted to insure that the new Russia, the emerging free Russia, didnt align with Germany in a currency block?Russia with the resources, If some european leaders had broken free of thier cold war thinking and thought more nationalistic, there must have been some nightmare scenarios that the US govt must have thought of.The leaders of the 80's were chatty and cooperative, someone must have known that would not last. Look at what happened despite all the cooperation, chirac and germany in fact decided to bond with hussien and russia in a mad gamble to enrich themselves. Against the US. Previous best allies. Things change on a dime, that utopian global currency idea is a university pipe dream. If the US was for the euro, it was not for some angelic reason. Goldilox (1/10/04; 19:15:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 115072) US Envoy: Afghan Reconstruction To Cost Billions http://news.morningstar.com/news/DJ/M01/D08/1073587862178.html snippit:"WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad warned Thursday that it will take billions of dollars over several years to rebuild that war-shattered country."It will cost a lot. It won't be cheap. But I'm not at this point in a position to give you exact figures. But it will take several years and billions of dollars to get this country to stand on its feet," Khalilzad said.Khalilzad briefed reporters while in Washington.In his $87 billion emergency spending bill on Iraqi and Afghanistan military and reconstruction operations, President George W. Bush devoted only a small fraction to rebuilding Afghanistan."Goldilox:This annexation and reconstruction effort is just like a country-western song -"Faster horses, older whiskey, younger women, and MORE MONEY!" Dollar Bill (1/10/04; 19:11:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115071) *>* Wallenwien again,And why would Baker and the US at that time want a euro? I am suspicious that the reason given, global currency, is the fake front of any US involvement. I am sure that the US never wanted to give up to a global control group, more likely, with the cold war changing, the US had a couple reasons for being pro euro. To unite europe in a group, tying them together helps provide a barrier to possible Russian future ideas. Also, it must help the US to deal with one euro as opposed to many currencies? Did Germany have a shot at being the reserve currency if its leaders were smarter? Was the US looking for some counterweight help when the Yen was looking mighty? The US must have had some US centric reason for helping the birth of the Euro.The US idea, is guess would be to keep being reserve currency forever. Make noises indicating whatever helps BS its opponents, but fake fronts? Fake moves? definately.Especially during the Bush 1 presidency. Bush 1 was seemingly a wimp to hear him speak, but he was very crafty and smart. And he didnt have a one world utopian lets share mindset. Goldilox (1/10/04; 18:58:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 115070) Repaired Link to UK credit stiry http://money.guardian.co.uk/creditanddebt/debt/story/0,1456,1119589,00.html sorry! Goldilox (1/10/04; 18:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115069) UK Personal debt 'doubled since 1998' "It is, however, certain that the future growth of the consumer credit market will struggle to match the levels exhibited in recent years. http://money.guardian.co.uk/creditanddebt/debt/story/0,1456,1119589,00.html snippit:"Unsecured borrowing soared by almost a third during 2003, research showed today, with personal debt among adults in the UK now averaging £4,426.According to a report released today by market analyst Datamonitor, levels of unsecured debt levels (that is, money owed on credit cards, loans and overdrafts) have almost doubled since 1998 and have risen by more than £1,000 since 2002, when the figure was £3,383.The group suggested that low interest rates, high levels of employment and soaring house prices had lead to the surge in consumer confidence which has resulted in people in the UK now owing collectively £175.6bn, with new lending during the year breaking through the £200bn mark for the first time.However, despite the astronomical figures, Datamonitor advised that while the outlook for the consumer credit market remained largely positive, the golden age of borrowing was finally coming to an end. It estimates that the average unsecured debt will grow to just £5,741 by 2008, an increase of only £263 a year during the next five years."Goldlox: Brits have been availing themselves of cheap money, as well. JavaMan (1/10/04; 18:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 115068) On Wallenwein's article… While this dated but still relevant perspective below will, no doubt, sound like heresy of the highest order to friends of the Euro, it is, none the less, a view that causes me to wonder what all the enthusiasm for yet another fiat currency is all about. "For a half-century, the Keynesians have harbored a Dream. They have long dreamed of a world without gold, a world rid of any restrictions upon their desire to spend and spend, inflate and inflate, elect and elect. They have achieved a world where governments and Central Banks are free to inflate without suffering the limits and restrictions of the gold standard. But they still chafe at the fact that, although national governments are free to inflate and print money, they yet find themselves limited by depreciation of their currency. If Italy, for example, issues a great many lira, the lira will depreciate in terms of other currencies, and Italians will find the prices of their imports and of foreign resources skyrocketing. What the Keynesians have dreamed of, then, is a world with one fiat currency, the issues of that paper currency being generated and controlled by one World Central Bank. What you call the new currency unit doesn't really matter: Keynes called his proposed unit at the Bretton Woods Conference of 1944, the "bancor"; Harry Dexter White, the U.S. Treasury negotiator at that time, called his proposed money the "unita"; and the London Economist has dubbed its suggested new world money the "phoenix." Fiat money by any name smells as sour.…A tempting opportunity for mischief has been offered the Keynesians by the coming of the European Community in 1992. The Keynesians, led by now Secretary of State James Baker, have been pushing for a new currency unit for this United Europe, to be issued by a European-wide Central Bank. This would not only mean an international economic government for Europe, it would also mean that it would become relatively easy for the post-1992 European Central Bank to become coordinated with the Central Banks of the United States and Japan, and to segue without too much trouble to the long-cherished goal of the World Central Bank and world currency unit.Inflationist European countries, such as Italy and France, are eager for the coordinated European-wide inflation that a regional Central Bank would bring about. Hard-money countries such as West Germany, however, are highly critical of inflationary schemes. You would expect Germany, therefore, to resist these Europeanist demands; so why don't they? The problem is that, ever since World War II, the United States has had enormous political leverage upon West Germany and the United States and its Keynesian foreign secretary Baker have been pushing hard for European monetary unity. Only Great Britain, happily, has been throwing a monkey-wrench into these Keynesian proceedings. Hard-money oriented, and wary of infringements on its sovereignty--and also influenced by Monetarist adviser Sir Alan Wakers--Britain might just succeed in blocking the European Central Bank indefinitely. At best, the Keynesian Dream is a long shot. It is always possible that, not only British opposition, but also the ordinary and numerous frictions between sovereign nations will insure that the Dream will never be achieved. It would be heartening, however, if principled opposition to the Dream could also be mounted. For what the Keynesians want is no less than an internationally coordinated and controlled world-wide, paper-money inflation, a fine-tuned inflation that would proceed unchecked upon its merry way until, whoops!, it landed the entire world smack into the middle of the untold horrors of global runaway hyperinflation."Murray N. Rothbard – Making Economic Sense (1995)Here's a great one-liner to come away with: "Fiat money by any name smells as sour." Hah! I love it. Gee Mr. Rothbard, tell us how you REALLY feel…javaman CoBra(too) (1/10/04; 17:11:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 115067) http://www.iht.com/cgi-bin/generic.cgi?template=articleprint.tmplh&ArticleId=124318 It seems a new guy on the economic block of IHT was needed to see, well at least, that there may be a problem with the rapid decline of the global reserve dollar. Even if his conclusions seem a bit out of whack, only to avoid lopsided, re the €, it is already a global problem. And what's more it is becoming a systemic problem ever more.A problem of the global currency system, based on the dollar standard. A standard getting more and more debased by the powers who have been responsible to impress it on the world in first place. IMF and WB have been eager collators to the system - can you think scam - sinking numerous productive countries into debt and despair, while the real offenders prospered by their hegemonial privilege of printing of same.As no one knows when the pain level of counter-action is reached - vis a vis the dollar depreciation, a true and blue Snow job - in any currency, I for one am patiently waiting for the gold bull to manifest in all and every paper currency.cb2PS: Looking forward to listen to O'Neil's broadcast tomorrow. CoBra(too) (1/10/04; 16:31:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 115066) @ BB Good luck in all your ventures and many thanks for your great work, Jon. Hope you'll find the time to update us all on your thoughts in between. Your excellent DMR's will be sorely missed by all of us and more.... and we'll try to heed your advice - best and Kudos to you, may I say friend ... cb2 Goldilox (1/10/04; 15:53:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 115065) Wallenwein article "Any world-currency system short of actual bimetallism or trimetallism requires a breakdown of borders and sovereignty. Such a system would be inherently unstable and would require the constant supervision and "fine-tuning" of a supranational authority - and such an authority simply cannot function among nations with fully intact borders.Like the stealth-bomber, a global currency of the kind Mundell and his ilk propose is primarily designed - not to be inherently stable in its operation, but to avoid detection of its true aims - until it is ready to drop its payload.That "payload" is the planned political world union. The result is tyranny - and the total destruction of individual freedom.Your freedom!"Goldilox:Actually, I like these paragraphs the best, but then, I am somewhat of a sensationalist- as if you didn't know! Goldilox (1/10/04; 15:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 115064) Wallenwein No problem, Randy. I included their copyright message at the end, but you know more about that stuff than I do. I just couldn't find any part I liked better than the whole message. Goldilox (1/10/04; 15:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 115063) Vibes @ GABWhen I listen to the media, they all make jokes about the "seven dwarf" candidates and Dean's lack of "mainstream" experience. Having watched a number of elections in my long years, non-mainstream candidates are not interesting when satisfaction levels are high. I think people are remembering all that transpired after the "silent majority" laughed off anti-Vietnam candidates. . .candidate assassinations, carpet bombing, presidential resignation, riots in US cities, inflation skyrocketed - it got ugly, and gold went to $850.Every possible spin twist is being utilized to convince Joe SixPack that everything is under control and change is not required. Any sign of uncontrolled return of the SM Bear, collapse of debtville, or resumption of terrorist activity could really shake up the dressing on our little tossed salad.Even the growth of interest in PMs, itself, portends general growth in fear levels. Ridge is even trying to control this with his little color chart. "People, this week you need to scared ORANGE!"When the leaves are rustling, the storm may be brewing, to repeat your analogy. TownCrier (1/10/04; 15:27:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 115062) Goldilox -- "© 2004 Alex Wallenwein" http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/0110.html You didn't explicitly indicate that you had secured the author's permission to republish in full, so out of respect for that intellectual property I removed the post. How about providing a key excerpt instead?Such as:The Stealth-Bomber Currencyby Alex Wallenwein, Editor & PublisherThe Euro vs Dollar Currency War MonitorJanuary 10, 2004"...any modern fiat system: without constant supervision and "fine-tuning" by monetary authorities, those systems would crash instantaneously. The only real advantage they carry is that they give their wielders the power to reshape human society in their own image - without humanity ever fully realizing what is happening to it."In all fairness, it must be said that Mundell understands gold as few others do. He fully appreciates the role gold played during the days of the gold standard, and even angles for "a role" for gold in his concept of a global currency. What's more, he wants to name his new brainchild "Intor" - borrowed from the words "International" and "Or" - the French word for gold. But at no point does he make an argument that gold (and silver) themselves could be used as money again. At no point does he argue against a discontinuation of this disastrous experiment in money-creation that we call fractional reserve banking."Mundell is the originator of a concept called "optimum currency areas" - of which the euro is the first viable exponent. He is planning for two more such "optimum" areas (the US/western hemisphere and Asia) which he later wants to morph into one single, world-wide currency system."Any global currency other than physical gold/silver (and maybe copper) will develop along the lines of the euro: a currency union based on first economic and then progressive political union which eliminates national borders and national sovereignty."(or whatever particular section you felt to be key)----see url for full text----Not only does it conform with the principle of copyright, it saves space, too!R. Goldilox (1/10/04; 15:24:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 115061) Metals @21MabryRather than play one metal against the other, just figure out a reasonable mix of the two. The are rising together. I think this applies to both investing and storage, but the selected ratio might not be equivalent for both purposes.As far as equities, I look for multiple metal exposures, as well. (Au+Ag, Au+Cu, Pt, Sn, Zn).Not sure this answers your question, but that's what I have done. The ratios are just a personal arbitrary choice. Great Albino Bat (1/10/04; 15:09:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 115059) The vibes I'm getting.... Here's old GAB in his cave and listening to what is being said at other forums - which we will not mention.What comes across is a very strong sense of outrage at the way the US is being run; very strong remarks regarding the ineptitude of Pres. Bush; direct allegations of treason on his part.Storm signals, folks! The sea is blackening, the wind is picking up, we have now 40 kn. blowing, the wave crests are breaking occasionally. Low scud blows across the sky, black clouds piling up behind.Time to don your golden lifejackets, and hope and pray for the best, for we are entering a severe storm. Things are going to get very nasty.The GAB has not seen such expressions of bitterness ever in his life. There are a lot of people in the U.S. who are tee'd off to the max, very angry. Not seen before.Buy your gold and keep a low profile.The GAB 21mabry (1/10/04; 14:48:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115058) Metals A question to the long time metal investors in the forum or to any one else.Has anyone based there investment strategy on trading the gold silver ratio to increase their positions?If so have you been sucessful how do you handle the commissions.With the gold silver ratio dropping this could be a strategy one could use?21 USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/10/04; 14:43:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115057) Saturday Report Updated Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you. Moegold (1/10/04; 13:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 115056) @Goldendome msg#11505 (Poor manns gold) Re gold - silver ratio:Having just reread Friedman's book Monetary Mischief, I'd like to restate something from the book that I had forgotten:"From 1670 BC to 1873, the year in which the United States and France demonitized silver, the yearly average price of gold never rose above 16 times the corresponding price of silver. The lowest recorded price ratio is a trifle below 9 in about 50 BC. Remarkably the price ratio ranged between 9 and 16 for more than three millennia."If silver ever becomes monitized, I guess we know the neighberhood it will live in! Goldilox (1/10/04; 13:53:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 115055) Comparo http://bullandbearwise.com/GoldOverlayChart.asp @ MerlinsenGreat Post! The trend is your friend!!!(:^) Goldilox Belgian (1/10/04; 12:15:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 115054) Henry C K Liu ( Waverider) Excellent analysis ! "Analysis" ...but no suggestions for problem-solving.Why are we spending so much energy and time on " re-analysing ", again and again, the same old "systemic" problems, manifesting themselves under different appearences ? Is everybody afraid of the "real" solutions ?Liu doesn't dare to conclude that there are growing "collusional" forces, becoming stronger by the day and evidenced by the abberational events, increasingly percepted as "normal".A. Greenspan is an instrumental part of this collusional orchestra. The markets and Sir Alan are as J. Bond & Co...at her Majesty's (the dollar system) service. Not a conspiracy but a very firm collusion !To hyper-focus on small parts of the Big picture (the dollar-world) is a guarantee for continuation...more of the same. Another International Monetary System is on the order of the day ! That's why R. Mundell made some (very discrete) noise, recently !!! Merlinsen (1/10/04; 12:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 115053) Comparing current gold with the late-1970s gold bull market http://bullandbearwise.com/GoldOverlayChart.asp Very interesting. On that base, if we project the time frame, we have a peak in ten months at a level of US$1000. Goldilox (1/10/04; 11:58:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 115052) "Polite Society" @21MaybryThe attitude that this cannot be discussed in "polite society" is why Ollie North had to conduct business from the White House "basement". Very few are courageous enough to discuss the arms/drug/gold/power collusion in "polite society". It's safer to pardon the participants, spank the Noriegas and Saddams of the world for overstepping their charter, and sweep it all under the rug as a "cost of doing business".Before the internet, we had alternate news radio like World Watchers and Mae Brussels linking the connections, but most of them are gone. We are very fortunate to have this forum, as MK allows us to explore the ideas as they relate to gold/money, etc., even when we drift a little from main topic.Universities get all their financial support from whom? A lot of them got spanked for allowing dissent to blossom on the campus during the Vietnam debacle. Resistance to repetition of that faux pax is great. Do a search on (former Attorney General) Ramsey Clark for the "other" side of the story. Assemble (cut and paste) both sides and you'll have truer view. Thanks to lessons learned in WWII, spin (propaganda) is rampant everywhere in the press, so caviat emptor. This may be because the universities graduate 10 marketing "spin" experts for every historian or journalist."Deep Throat" got it right - FOLLOW the MONEY!-G Goldilox (1/10/04; 11:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 115051) How to Identify a Bubble - Richebacher snippit:"It is, as a matter of fact, the central axiom of the Austrian school of economics that the movements in the price level can be a misleading guide to monetary policy. What crucially matters is the inflation of credit, exerting a much deeper and fundamental influence on the whole economy through distortions and dislocations in its whole demand and output structure.From a policy perspective, to stress the key point, the decisive evil thing is the credit expansion that exceeds available domestic savings. That is the regular, cardinal culprit behind all dangerous economic and financial imbalances, and also behind all inflations. What the Greenspan Federal Reserve refuses to accept is that their beloved wealth-creation reflects incredibly dangerous inflation in the asset markets.Putting it differently, in a balanced economy, credit expansion is fully matched by available domestic savings. This used to belong to the elementary knowledge of economists. Mr. Greenspan shocked us with his public remark that an asset bubble can only be recognized after it has burst. Outrageous credit inflation was the infallible and most spectacular hallmark of America's equity bubble in the late 1990s. But instead of feeding into the price indexes of goods and services, which continued to fall, it fed into soaring imports and soaring stock prices.To repeat: All asset bubbles and bubble economies have their highly visible and also compelling trademark in exploding credit. The distinction between the two is important. An asset bubble simply reflects a rise in asset prices out of proportion to underlying yields. A bubble economy is an economy where soaring asset prices fuel a borrowing/spending binge that may be concentrated in real estate, business fixed investment or consumption."Goldilox: Dr. Kurt tells Sir AG to clean his glasses. No link as I found this at the neighbors', but Dr. Kurt can usually be read over at the Daily Reckoning. Denarius (1/10/04; 11:28:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 115050) pmurgsRSA (115038) far out on a limb pmurgsRSA (1/10/04; 02:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 115038)Depending on the hidden level of collusion...Bear with me here as I go far out on a limb.Not at all. At least not in this forum. Quite the contrary, I think you have drilled right to the core of the master plan. Just today I heard part of a radio interview with the head of US-AID. It seems the US State Department is poised to raise their outlays to Five Billion Dollars of bait money to get all the poorer countries to tow the line in the new power block. I would like to research this now but the weather finally broke and I must take advantage of it before the next winter storm blows through. Enjoy your summer. Later. Denarius (1/10/04; 11:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115049) Waverider (msg#: 115031) Waverider (1/10/04; 00:39:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 115031)http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID667551&cmd=show[s22179539]&disp=OWow! Thanks for the link; I am now in either 'chart heaven' or total 'chart overload'. Minor correction - I have no opinion on where the Au/Ag ratio is headed; my 50/1 ratio is just where acquisition was temporarily ended by the rapid price rises. It will change by swapping if/when the ratio goes above 80 or below 40. Maybe not. 21mabry (1/10/04; 11:19:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 115048) Education The link you posted Goldi got me thinking about how gold and other issues on this forum are viewed by the University I attend.Any time I have brought up issues either in class or in a term paper dealing with gold or conspiratorial views of history I have been ignored'shunned or given a lower grade than I usually get.I was told by a proffessor about a paper I wanted to write on the relationship of gold and opium and the fortunes made by the elite in the world from this trade,that this was not the kind of thing discussed in polite society.I honestly have come to believe that the truth has been the victim of our university system in this country.21 Operative (1/10/04; 11:13:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115046) @ Goldilox You said, "It's just not resurrecting the "dead cat" they're spending it on..."There have been so many "dead cat" bounces in recent times that I am now convinced it is the cat from a Stephen King novel called Pet Cemetry. Scary. Goldilox (1/10/04; 11:11:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 115045) Good Luck BB @ BBHere's wishing you a healthy and profitable venture in the coming months. Remember, satellite internet connections are available, so you can check in on us whenever you have time. If this current venture is PM related, maybe you can post a picture of a couple of liberated nuggets to fuel our envy!!!Good luck in all!-G 21mabry (1/10/04; 11:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 115043) Goldilox An ex girlfriend bought me tragedy and hope its a great book every one on this forum should have.The role of gold in history is dealt with extensively,but my goodness that is one huge book.I like to read and I have had it for several years but I am no where near through it.Thnx Goldie.21 MK (1/10/04; 10:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 115042) Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Report Jon will be away for several months on a drilling supervision. I wanted to post his final report here for the record as it lays out his expectations for the gold market in the weeks and months to come. Good luck to you, Jon, and we'll keep the fire burning for you here at USAGOLD. Thanks for the outstanding job you have done over the last several months with the Afternoon Gold Market Report. I think we will all look forward to your participation here at the forum.________Daily Market Report (January 10,2004) I will be on hiatus for at least a couple of months as I have been hired to work on some geologic problems and supervise a drilling program for a major independent energy company. As I have repeatedly said in previous market reports and in the USAGOLD forum, there are fewer professionals (geologists, metallurgists, etc.) and technicians (engineers, mechanics, heavy equipment operators, blasters, etc) left in the United States any longer who are experienced in the exploration and exploitation of natural resources that provide Americans with the lifestyles that they have become accustomed to. I have worked in this particular region in previous years and am one of a handful of geoscientists left who have experience in this area. Of course much depends on the political will of Federal regulatory agencies that will determine the length and completion of these projects. In the meantime I will post information when I can in the forum concerning the precious metals and energy markets. There are many changes coming to the financial markets and we are at the beginning of a new era. Already we see the US dollar devaluing at a nice clip. I would not be surprised to see the dollar fall by at least another 30-50% in spite of "competitive currency devaluation" or international currency market interventions. So far the dollar has fallen over 30% against the Euro in just one year. Our trade deficit is the largest in history and the current account imbalances just keep growing and accumulating unchecked. The international community has thrived on US debt while we have gone from being the largest creditor nation to the largest debtor nation. Since the dollar is the international reserve currency (for now) with foreign banks buying up dollars to balance their own currencies (many to extreme excess), these banks stand ready to dishoard dollars as the US currency loses value. Making the situation worse is that the US government is spending more and more like drunken sailors on shore leave. There are only two ways to pay for the old and new government programs, wars, and defense against terrorism and hopefully bring the dollar back into realistic valuations is either to raise taxes on Americans or to create more dollars. As the administration has been cutting taxes, they are more likely to fire up the printing presses further therefore devaluing the dollar. The stage is being set for inflation (more likely stagflation).We have entered a new stage where we are in a secular bull market for hard assets. As long as price inflation exists (as it will for several years), gold, silver, platinum, oil and natural gas will make extraordinary gains. One thing is certain and that is inflation in paper currency (dollars, stocks, and bonds) is always followed by a surge in hard currency (precious metals and energy). Secular bull markets can last anywhere from 16 to 20 years on average and we have just come to the end of the secular bull in paper assets. Now the talk of the financial media and Wall Street is the new bull market (a secular bull market) in commodities (especially in energy, precious and base metals). Though investments can be made in energy, real estate, base and precious metals. The easiest to buy and hold for the average investor are the precious metals, and unless you have room for barrels of oil, underground storage for natural gas, or are ready for a glut in real estate, then that leaves precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum – bullion and numismatic coin) as the obvious investment choice for investors. That is where the staff at Centennial Precious Metals (USAGOLD) can help. Jon H. Warner Goldilox (1/10/04; 10:22:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115041) West vs. East @ pmurgsRSAAlthough many would have us believe the last century was about West vs. East, it has really been North vs. South for a couple of centuries. Strong militaristic governments in the northern hemisphere have "competed" for the privilege of "administering" the resource rich south in their various forms of colonialism. Whether one talks free world or the old communist block, the issue has always been resource and market control. The west vs. east turmoil was a media smoke screen while hundreds of millions died in "internal" political and labor strife on both sides of the fence. Stalin and Mao were "cleansing" their Asian nations of "dissidents", South American students and labor activists were disappearing in huge numbers, and your own continent's power struggles were incredibly brutal. Whether by Marshall plan or Warsaw pact, the no/so mastery has been maintained to keep resources flowing north cheaply to fuel the industrial machine. The most important alliances of the 21st century may be the So American/Africa/China alliances, as the third world countries take a stab at maturing from colonial status into real nations. Japan may at some point have to decide whether to rejoin the third world as a partner or continue in the old world as a colony. Bankrupting themselves to "save" the dollar may make this decision even more imminent.Call them radicals, but third world peoples are rebeling against the IMF-World Bank usury that "loans" them money in US$ for so-called development (squandered mostly on militaries to control them) and then manipulates their local currency into default over and over again, whilst annexing their resources to pay the debts. The current US$ devaluation is a new twist for everyone, as the previous century has always brought massive devaluations of local currencies against the US$. The most important decisions of this decade hinge on the smaller market's choices to debase their currencies once again in a "monkey see, monkey do" reaction to "save" the dollar reserve trade. Their only alternative, difficult at best, is to build healthier trading patterns amongst themselves and tell the IMF/WB "Steal from us no more", which is tantamount to colonial rebellion.Sadly, the resource grabs that fueled WW's I and II are being repeated, and given military destruction capabilities of the automated variety, what evolves from them will probably NOT be pretty. steady (1/10/04; 09:50:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115040) golden vocabulary pugnacious policies ! mas (1/10/04; 05:25:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 115039) Privateer comments The performance of the XGO this week is pretty conclusive evidence that Gold stock investors are still waiting for a Gold price rise in terms of ALL currencies, not just the $US, before they jump back into the market. pmurgsRSA (1/10/04; 02:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 115038) Depending on the hidden level of collusion... Bear with me here as I go far out on a limb.Forget about the money for a moment and follow the power. Imagine China, Japan, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Iraq (oil), Libya (oil), Afghanistan, possibly Syria (conquered), possibly North Korea (conquered) with the USA leading (at least initially) forming as a power block. Imagine the rest of the world that does not follow them into debasing their currencies siding with the EU. The new USA power block continues, indefinitely to debase their currencies switching to digital dollars and no cash, thus making it hard to preserve wealth in these countries like under communism. By this time, these are the only strong economies left after the currency wars. All the rest have little or no export capacity and have suffered huge losses in their failed attempts to prevent fiat capital from fleeing the new power block to them and forcing their currencies to appreciate. Holding dollars that constantly become worthless due to their constant debasement means the rest of the world becomes unwilling to hold dollars and trade between them and the new superpower block ceases. The new super power block does not now have to pay it's debt to the rest of the world. It gets off scott free for years of consumption and the resulting economic growth. In the last century, it was the West verses the East, in the new century may it be the ‘New economy / New communism’ (pure paper, no individuals owning assets) verses the old (gold and hard assets)? Waverider (1/10/04; 02:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 115037) Fed's pugnacious policies hurt economies http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FA10Dj01.html "Alan Greenspan, chairman of US Federal Reserve Board, may be patting himself on the back a bit prematurely and undeservedly by claiming that the Fed correctly focused policies on trying to mitigate probable damage after the eventual bursting of the bubble of stock market speculation rather than taking measures to prevent the bubble itself."Waverider: An excellent commentary from Henry Liu at The Asian Times - it needs a minute to download as it's abit lengthly.Goldilox - thanks for the clarification...it then would be someone else using the same handle - please accept my apology. Goldilox (1/10/04; 02:19:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 115036) Next Door? @ LW:you said, "Goldilox...enjoy all your contributions here but *man*, you're gunna break alota hearts next door! Cheers!"Do you mean at a neighboring castle? I visit others to read their fare, but this has been my home page and I only post here - since about Jan 03. CoBra(too) (1/10/04; 02:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 115035) As Snippet from the "Privateer"! Awaiting Gold's REAL boom ..."The TOP of Gold's previous bull market has NOT caused a correction in the present $US Gold price run. But as fast as Gold is advancing in $US terms, it is still lagging far below 2003 highs in terms of the currencies which are rising the fastest against the $US. We still await Gold's REAL boom - the point where it starts to rise against ALL paper currencies, not just the US Dollar. Stay tuned".cb2 - As Japan's BOJ seems the only CB stemming the dollar flood, while only managing to avert an outright rout with incredible amounts of paper, most other CB's stand pat. When the pain gains momentum competitive devaluations will be seen as the only solution. The race to the bottom will be the ultima ratio for a system built on debt and delusion. Waverider (1/10/04; 01:21:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115034) Black Blade I remember when your consulting work a year or so ago finished and we were all so fortunate to have you contribute to the forum with the "Morning Blade", regular real-time updates on the markets, and news throughout the day...in fact it appeared as though you never slept! I am glad for you that again of late you have opportunity to apply your expertise and skills in the area that you love. Thanks for your generous sharing of wisdom, knowledge, and prescient views on a daily bases via the DMR - it's greatly appreciated. Safe travels Sir Black Blade! Cheers,Waverider steady (1/10/04; 01:00:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 115033) folly .. Moria, Stultitia, Folly. the original http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1509erasmus-folly.html just in case u missed it the first few times round!ORATION: An Oration of Feigned Matter, spoken by Folly in her own Person AT WHAT RATE soever the world talks of me (for I am not ignorant what ill report Folly has got, even among the most foolish), yet that I am that she, that only she, whose deity recreates both gods and men, even this is a sufficient argument, that I no sooner stepped up to speak to this full assembly than all your faces put on a kind of new and unwonted pleasantness. So suddenly have you cleared your brows, and with so frolic and hearty a laughter given me your applause, that in truth as many of you as I behold on every side of me seem to me no less than Homer's gods drunk with nectar and nepenthe; whereas before, you sat as lumpish and pensive as if you had come from consulting an oracle. And as it usually happens when the sun begins to show his beams, or when after a sharp winter the spring breathes afresh on the earth, all things immediately get a new face, new color, and recover as it were a certain kind of youth again: in like manner, by but beholding me you have in an instant gotten another kind of countenance; and so what the otherwise great rhetoricians with their tedious and long-studied orations can hardly effect, to wit, to remove the trouble of the mind, I have done it at once with my single look. But if you ask me why I appear before you in this strange dress, be pleased to lend me your ears, and I'll tell you; not those ears, I mean, you carry to church, but abroad with you, such as you are wont to prick up to jugglers, fools, and buffoons, and such as our friend Midas once gave to Pan. For I am disposed awhile to play the sophist with you; not of their sort who nowadays boozle young men's heads with certain empty notions and curious trifles, yet teach them nothing but a more than womanish obstinacy of scolding: but I'll imitate those ancients who, that they might the better avoid that infamous appellation of sophi or wise, chose rather to be called sophists. Their business was to celebrate the praises of the gods and valiant men. And the like encomium shall you hear from me, but neither of Hercules nor Solon, but my own dear self, that is to say, Folly: Nor do I esteem a rush that call it a foolish and insolent thing to praise one's self. Be it as foolish as they would make it, so they confess it proper: and what can be more than that Folly be her own trumpet? For who can set me out better than myself, unless perhaps I could be better known to another than to myself? Though yet I think it somewhat more modest than the general practice of our nobles and wise men who, throwing away all shame, hire some flattering orator or lying poet from whose mouth they may hear their praises, that is to say, mere lies; and yet, composing themselves with a seeming modesty, spread out their peacock's plumes and erect their crests, while this impudent flatterer equals a man of nothing to the gods and proposes him as an absolute pattern of all virtue that's wholly a stranger to it, sets out a pitiful jay in other's feathers, washes the blackamoor white, and lastly swells a gnat to an elephant. mikal (1/10/04; 00:51:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 115032) Kangaroos and Springboks bound to far away lands... It may be that the S. African mint or other bullion coins will be the first to cease production in the face of relentless demand, rapidly diminishing supply or price volatilty.This condition feeds, and is fed by, the ongoing, stealth exit of rare and "bullion-related" precious, obsolete (formerly circulating and legal-tender) coinage of dozens of nations.Gold, in fact, appears to be leading the CRB, oil, silver, etc. higher. Waverider (1/10/04; 00:39:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 115031) Denarius http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID667551&cmd=show[s22179539]&disp=O I quite agree with you that we most likely will see the Gold:Silver ratio go to at least 60 and the 50's wouldn't suprise me abit. Here's a chart I posted last week - if you scroll down to 5.1 you'll see the Gold:Silver ratio - note that it should gravitate towards the median line (the red pitchfork handle). If Silver moves up again Monday disproportionately to Spot, then we should penetrate the 50 day MA, and WHOOAAA...look out below! Rich...ya gotta be lovin' it!! And YES, all hands on deck!Goldilox...enjoy all your contributions here but *man*, you're gunna break alota hearts next door! Cheers! Waverider USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/10/04; 00:16:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 115030) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.I will be away from the Daily Market Report desk for a few weeks plying my trade in the field. Still. I will post on the forum as time allows and as news in the precious metals breaks. (see the market report for details)Jon H. Warner Denarius (1/10/04; 00:04:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 115029) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Charts of the Week <<<<<<<<<<<<<<< This first week of the new year certainly provided more than enough squiggly lines to ponder. Hopefully, you too will post your favorite graphical indicators of this weeks action with your comments. Here are my selections, fwiw: ---------------------------------------------------------- Silver http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&t=l&w=15&a=0&v=wMonday's rise due to Al & Ben speaking in San Diego? Friday's rise due to the Shrub waxing about the moon? Gold http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=l&w=15&a=0&v=wI get the 'message' from Tuesday but who's it for? Oil - Light Crude http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYMEX_CLG4&t=f&w=5&a=0&v=wDoes oil look like a leading indicator for silver to you? USD Index http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=15&a=0&v=wSupport, such as it was, failed at 85.5; new support at 85.0 ? Platinum http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XPTUSDO&t=l&w=15&a=0&v=wThe rich man's gold makes almost a 5% move; getting toppy? ---------------------------------------------------------- Admin: please excuse any faux pas I may have committed with this posting; I'm new at this but willing to learn. All: if this seems like a good idea, post your comments and I will add, delete, modify what I can as you suggest. Searching for charts uncovers all sorts of good material I would never think of searching for otherwise. I can find some charts THIS BIG if you want: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$usd,uu[d,a]dcolyyay[d19840606,20040606]>>>>>>>> Got dollars? Too bad. Got gold? Get more! <<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>> Got silver? Good. You're keeping fit! <<<<<<<<<< Goldilox: Now WHICH state might that be? Texas? Denarius: Good one! That's the kind of zinger I appreciate. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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