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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/10/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 23:51:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89247)
Sir Timbervision's Question !!
timbervision (11/10/02; 23:46:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89245)
""Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's ?""
<snip>
My question. Does the answer depend, at least in part, on where you live?
=====
BRAVO !!!
<;-)

Blackjack (11/10/02; 23:48:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 89246)
$$$$323.9$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the late 1960's ?"
Yes, I think the analogy is close.

With interest rates where they are in the US and soon coming
down from the ECB there will be few places to invest as
a safe haven.

With the US Dollar weakening, this could eventually lead to
a surge in inflation. The US imports a lot of energy/goods and there
will have to be price increases or exporters will suffer even
more in lost profits due to a weaker US Dollar.

Exporters like Japan will suffer from a weak dollar and this puts
the world economy in a downward spiral. A weaker dollar should
help US exporters but in the past it has not helped much.

Stagflation could be the result with weakening economies and
prices rising with weaker buying power of paper money.

When the ECB cuts again, European Bonds will look less attractive and more money will find its way into GOLD and SILVER!

timbervision (11/10/02; 23:46:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89245)
$$$$321.3$$$$
""Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's ?""

I think there is no doubt that many parallel's exist...for a Westerner. Most of the Western currencies have been able to maintain their value, to some degree, with respect to the U.S. dollar. So a highly under-priced ounce of gold should bring rewards as the US dollar devalues. However, I know that I am paying close to $500 Canadian for an ounce of gold compared to an American who only has to pay $320. If I was from any one of a number of third world countries, I wonder how relatively expensive it would be for them to buy one ounce of gold. How many hours does the average Mexican have to work to buy one ounce today compared to in 1968? Would a family in places like China, India, the Middle East, etc. be well advised to put their own fiat into gold or would it be better spent buying other real assets that are produced in their own country. When the financial detonation occurs what happens to this huge disparity in foreign exchange rates. Will there be a coming back together of world exchange rates?

My question. Does the answer depend, at least in part, on where you live?

mikal (11/10/02; 23:29:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89244)
Price Guessing Contest
$$$$$321.5$$$$$
How is gold in the 60's comparable to gold today? In many ways, as we can see from our contestant/contributers.
Gold's significance today is it's ageless function for ordinary people, both symbolic and tangible. A benchmark of progress valued by natural law alone.

Black Blade (11/10/02; 23:28:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89243)
$$$$321.10$$$$

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


Yes, more or less. Actually considering the furious pace of inflation through the 1970's and 1980's, and the less pronounced rate of inflation since, it is similar. As far as portfolio insurance is concerned and the numerous pitfalls that lay ahead ranging from currency instability, economic worries, imploding stock markets, and geopolitical tensions, gold is a screaming bargain at current prices.

- Black Blade

Brett Woods (11/10/02; 23:16:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 89242)
$$$$326.3$$$
My appologies Sir Gandalf for any agregious omission in my previous prognostication. In answer to the question, "Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" Yes, I've thought that for two years!
There was a very big pullback relative to the price movement then before the big take off. Not unlike what happened over the summer. But for gold to go over 400 and rise to 700 will take a kind of trigger. Currencies are all falling, Japan is bankrupt, China bankrupt, Russia is bankrupt and has taken the whole former USSR with it. South America? Africa? What country has been successfull with currency? The world is now opening a sleepy eye to dollar hegemony and the awakening is going to be rude.

But, that's not enough. These situations can languish for decades. If there is a strong second leg down in U.S. and european equity markets coupled with any irrational or draconian public policy foreign and domestic, then that will be the signal for me that we will likely see numbers in the DOW and Gold, not like the 60's but like the 80's first (meaning the reciprical or mirror image of the trends these two had in the 80's) There's still a lot holding back the rocket ride of the 70's, namely computers giving us eyes and ears, greater liquidity of market and complex hedges and derivatives that weren't around then. Obviously I'm as clear as mud here, but i'm rushing to make up my guessing deficiency. :)

Aristotle (11/10/02; 22:57:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 89241)
Mr. Bill says the Sisci article is "poppycock" (msg#: 89206)
Wowzers! How long have you been such an American-hater, Mr. Bill?

I ask because I can't easily think of any other bias you could've carried into it to walk away with that vague and outright dismissal.

If you're not a hater of America and Americans, then I'm guessing instead that you read only as far as the first half of the first page. Yeah... I sure hope that's it, 'cause nothing gets under my skin more than bigoted American-haters and any other individual who similarly hates with broad sweeping brush strokes.

A discussion can't get much mileage if you don't give us more fuel than "poppycock."

Gold. Elaborate you some. --- Aristotle

Blackjack (11/10/02; 22:53:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 89240)
@ Sir Gandalf the White
"Grim and Bear it!"

Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 22:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89239)
Question Sir Blackjack --- Where have we heard that statement before ?
``The outlook is quite grim,'' said Takehiro Sato, an economist at Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd.
---
<;-)

The CoinGuy (11/10/02; 22:43:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89238)
$$$$323.80$$$$
Is it better to be purchasing gold now or in the 60's?

Interesting Question. Does it make any difference? Yes, I believe it does. The world wasn't in the post bubble stage of the most overpriced stock market ever in history. Not to mention tech bubble, credit bubble, dollar bubble and bond bubble. In the 60's I believe most individuals were looking for asset appreciation, now were looking for asset protection. I personally don't care if gold goes sky high(a side benefit), it is the ultimate insurance. Like I always say during each contest. The only asset w/o liabilities, a complete asset in your hand. Not tied to any systemic risks.

You surely won't see it's CEO doing the perp walk either.

The CoinGuy

Blackjack (11/10/02; 22:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89237)
Asia in deep slide
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u
Tokyo, Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell last quarter as slumping exports prompted companies such as Advantest Corp. to curb investment.

Machinery orders, an early indicator of business investment, fell 1.7 percent last quarter from the previous three-month period, seasonally adjusted, government figures showed. In September, orders rose 12.7 percent from the previous month after dropping 13.6 percent in August.

The world's second-largest economy is counting on investment by its companies to power growth as falling wages and job cuts shake consumer confidence and spending, economists said. A rebound from the third recession in a decade may be cut short by slowing growth in the U.S., Japan's biggest overseas market.

``Everything hinges on the outlook for the U.S. economy,'' said Tatsuya Torikoshi, a senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. ``September's increase was a rebound from August's big decline, and production will probably start falling by the beginning of next year.''

Falling sales prompted Advantest, the world's biggest maker of memory-chip testing equipment, to cut 600 jobs after announcing a loss in the six months to Sept. 30. Equipment sales will probably fall in the fiscal second half, the company said.

U.S. growth will slow to a 2.2 percent annual rate this quarter from an expected 3.6 percent pace in the third quarter as consumer spending cools, according to a consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

``The outlook is quite grim,'' said Takehiro Sato, an economist at Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd.

DOWNUNDER (11/10/02; 22:33:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89236)
THE GLASS STEAGALL ACT -- (From the same source)

You might recall that over the last couple of years I have warbled on about the Glass Steagall Act. It was established in 1933 to separate deposit banking and investment banking - for reasons I outlined in the IWL Morning Report on October 6th, 2001 (a little over a year ago - I have attached the text to this e-mail...).

It turns out that Wall Street banks spent THREE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS (in campaign contributions and so on) lobbying for the repeal of Glass Steagall.

Three hundred million. Little wonder the US is on the same track as Argentina.
-----------------------------------------------------------
WRITTEN BY ANALYST OCT 6th 2001 --NOTHING'S CHANGED!
A SAD COMMENTARY ON GREED & BLIND PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE (DU)



There is one extraordinarily good reason for people to sell US dollars – namely, that its markets have been perverted to suit the joint whims of Wall Street and the US bureaucracy. BY 'bureaucracy' I don't mean President Bush, Vice President Cheney, or any of the folks who carry on the business of government; I am talking about Greenspan (so what else is new) and his ego.

Folks should realise that the market has never been 'free' – in the sense of 'unfettered'. For a while – particularly between 1933 and 1989, when the Glass Steagall Act was in force – is was 'open' in the sense of transparency of the objectives of its participants. However the abandonment of the Glass-Steagall strictures on investment banks, and the 'buddy buddy' nature of relations between Wall Street insiders (and I use the word deliberately) and the Fed and the US Treasury, have so corrupted this market that the entire system is at the most significant risk since 1932 – or perhaps even since 1895.

Interestingly, it was at this time (1895) when the incestuous relationship between Wall Street banks and the US Government was first cemented, with John Pierpont Morgan meeting with US President Grover Cleveland to organise a 'bailout' of the US Treasury – which was experiencing a run on gold. Morgan organised a syndicate through which the US would issue Treasury bonds.

Morgan's 'assist' to the US Treasury in 1895 was repaid in part by a regulatory framework which simply 'looked the other way' during the bull market of the 1920's (by which time JP was dead). The resultant chicanery was responsible in no small part for the 1929 meltdown in the market (although it bears no responsibility at all for the Depression).

Morgan's name remains a 'legacy asset' for JP Morgan, which is now JPMorganChase, the most leveraged financial institution in US history. Where LTCM was leveraged to 300 times its equity, JPMorganChase has notional derivative exposure equal to 450 times its market cap and 1350 times the book value of its equity. Where John Pierpont Morgan was an avid believer in gold as an asset, JPMorganChase has short gold derivative positions which dwarf annual gold production.


The chicanery which Glass and Steagall sought to prevent, is all happening again. And nobody should pretend that this manipulation is an attempt to shore up the economy; it is simply to prevent the return to fair valuation of this over-hyped market.

Major brokerages have continued to pump massive Fed liquidity injections straight into the futures market (thereby magnifying the effect on equities quite massively thanks to leverage – which is ironic since it is their leveraged exposure through other derivatives which is to be their final undoing).
This chicanery – borne of desperation and executed in full knowledge that it is probably futile – will serve only to prolong the pain of economic adjustment, and will not hold the market up in the face of an economy which is dragging earnings down the steepest cliff I have ever seen. Despite all the maundering baloney about how retail investors should be buying this market, and how short-sellers are responsible for the recession, we still see blatant manipulation of financial markets on a scale which is unprecedented since the before the 1933 introduction of the Glass Steagall Act – and in fact probably the largest scale the introduction of laws against insider trading and market manipulation. It is also unprecedented in that the US Federal Reserve – the supposedly august institution charged with regulating the US Payments System – is a willing participant, basically giving money away at below the Fed Funds target, in full knowledge that it will be used as I described. It has even gone so far as to slow the release of its repurchase data, so that market participants have no idea how much money was pumped into the market until hours after it happens.
It's worth noting that several of the major aims of the Glass Steagall Act have amazingly direct relevance to the present situation. By trying to prevent commercial banks from dealing in securities, the Act sought to obviate -
·Conflicts of interest and other abuses of trust.
·Excess risk-adoption by commercial bank: the Federally provided deposit insurance and access to discount window borrowings at the Federal Reserve permit and even encourage banks to take greater risks than are socially optimal. Permitting trading and advice in securities was thought problematic since commercial banks are protected by this federal 'safety net'.
·Unfair competition and concentration of market power. Banks get subsidized federal deposit insurance which gives them access to 'cheap' deposit funds. Thus they have market power and can engage in cross-subsidization that would give them an unfair competitive advantage over non-bank competitors (e.g. Securities brokers and underwriters) if they were permitted to offer investment banking services.

Interestingly, most of the major market makers are linked directly or indirectly to a major bank; all four of the dominant houses on Wall Street have access to the discount window, and have been using it like blazes this past month.

OCT 2001


The CoinGuy (11/10/02; 22:33:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 89235)
Sierra, ALL...
I believe the precursor in the article referred to a decline in the dollar to that level if the US attacked Iraq. This # he states seems to be a little steep for me. An orderly decline would benefit both sides. Although, I found it very interesting the ECB, and the BOE stood pat. Perhaps, a reinforcement of a better managed currency model? The problem is, as brought forth on this table. I believe the world will run to the "best managed currency" as war with Iraq breaks out. I remember FOA stating to Au Spec, and the rest of us on the Trail that a war will seriously shorten the remainder of the dollars timeline as a reserve.

Entirely to many wildcards out there...

After reviewing some of the archives tonight, I see a lot has happened since I left. Ari is tossing them out hot and heavy. Nice one Ari. Also, Belgian is putting 'em in there as well. Nice to see original thinking. Quite a few new faces. Hello to all that are new around the table!

The (physical)CoinGuy

Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 22:33:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 89234)
Sir Gold N Rule's "correction" statement ! <;-)
No problemo !! They are the SAME !
Either meets Rule #3 !
<;-)

Gold N Rule (11/10/02; 22:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 89233)
$$$$320.6$$$$
Did I finally get it correct??????

Gold N Rule (11/10/02; 22:26:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 89232)
$$$$320.6
In case you didn't want $$$$320.60$$$$ with the 0 on the end of my quote I'm correcting the message #88587

Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 22:23:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 89231)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
POG Price Guessing CONTEST ---- Tick Tock, Tick Tock !!!!!!
THIRTEENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 22:20 Denver time 11/10/02
A total of 75 Prognostications to date !
Get your Number soon as the rush will be on MONDAY !
(As my Crystal Ball says that the total will be over 150 guesses !!!!!)
Rule #6 says, "All ‘Guesses’ MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes "HIGH NOON" on MONDAY, November 11th."
THEREFORE there are less than THIRTEEN (13) Hours to go !!!!
Don't miss this CONTEST, ---all you procrastinators !!!
<;-)
===

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :
11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6

(looks as if Sir 18K is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---

THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ****** as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December ‘02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743
$$$$ 326.4 $$$$ Aureo Speedwagon (11/10/02; 20:19:15MT - msg#: 89216
?*?* 326.3 ?*? Rule 7 Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:45:32MT - msg#: 89221

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Prometheus (11/10/02; 11:50:11MT - msg#: 89194

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/02; 09:27:27MT - msg#: 89191

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Shermag (11/09/02; 19:13:41MT - msg#: 89168

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787
$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ Electrum (11/10/02; 14:55:29MT - msg#: 89201

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908
$$$$ 323.1 $$$$ Scarab (11/10/02; 17:19:48MT - msg#: 89205

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764
$$$$ 322.8 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (11/10/02; 12:46:40MT - msg#: 89198
$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020
$$$$ 322.4 $$$$ ManAurum (11/09/02; 22:03:13MT - msg#: 89177

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767
$$$$ 322.0 $$$$ Just waking up (11/10/02; 15:56:20MT - msg#: 89202
$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ Yellow Metal (11/10/02; 05:49:21MT - msg#: 89185
$$$$ 321.8 $$$$ Ole Man (11/10/02; 20:38:04MT - msg#: 89219
$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892
$$$$ 320.7 $$$$ seagull (11/09/02; 21:47:22MT - msg#: 89176
$$$$ 320.6 $$$$ Gold N Rule (11/10/02; 21:59:18MT - msg#: 89228
$$$$ 320.5 $$$$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067

$$$$ 320.3 $$$$ Yukon (11/10/02; 20:11:26MT - msg#: 89214
$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ harryo (11/10/02; 21:50:09MT - msg#: 89226

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748
$$$$ 319,1 $$$$ Trurl (11/10/02; 20:19:57MT - msg#: 89217

$$$$ 318.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (11/10/02; 20:17:16MT - msg#: 89215

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ BILLYG (11/10/02; 21:04:59MT - msg#: 89222

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 Rule 7 nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 316.2 $$$$ SWEET 16 (11/10/02; 20:36:10MT - msg#: 89218

$$$$ 315.6 $$$$ silvercollector (11/10/02; 06:58:06MT - msg#: 89188

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ Christian (11/10/02; 06:46:53MT - msg#: 89187

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

===
<;-)



DOWNUNDER (11/10/02; 22:21:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89230)
ANYONE IN EUROPE SEE THESE FIGURES PUBLISHED?
(This was sent to me in an E/mail today --No Source)


On July 12,.the head of the IMF stated that the probability of a complete, global financial meltdown was ONE IN FIVE.

ONE IN FIVE. That is a VERY large number.

The Council on Foreign Relations in NY has been running
"scenario analyses" on global financial meltdown for the last nine months.Neither of these things was reported in the US media; both were only reported in the European press.


Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 22:15:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89229)
WELCOME Sir HarryO !!! <;-)
harryo (11/10/02; 21:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89226)
===
GREAT to see you here !
<;-)


Gold N Rule (11/10/02; 21:59:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89228)
$$$$320.60$$$$
No, I don't believe buying gold now is like buying it at $35 oz. in the late 1960's.
In the late 60's gold's price was designated @ $35/oz government's intervention on the price of gold was fixed
in part to mask the dollar's weakness.This was to change in 71' under Nixon when he abandoned the Bretton Woods agreement,
devalued the dollar and superficially raised the price of gold. This was done in part to prevent an International run on our gold
reserves which were quite reduced to support that $35/oz. benchmark price of gold, prior to this.

At this time, 71', Nixon freed the dollar to trade naturally against the other world currencies.This invited the opportunity to allow
unlimited trade and budget deficits.We were basically readily able to inflate the dollar cause the U.S. no longer had to deliver gold
on demand for dollars to other countries.Subsequent inflation blew the price of gold way up til it peaked in around 79'.

Today with a freefloating dollar and being faced with a rapidly mounting deficit, higher oil prices, deflation, mounting bankruptcies
and potential bank failures where they have to scramble to liquidate assets and repossess on bad debts as well as mounting
business costs limiting mine production there should be considerable pressure on gold to eventually go much higher. New demand
should surge as worried investors continue their bailing from equities and even bonds. The dollar not based on a gold standard like
days of ole will have to settle at a lower more realistic value. With the dollar lower there will be more ability and temptation for
nervous investors to seek out gold as a hedge againgst inflation and deflation alike.

Today investing in gold seems a potentially better investment than it was in the late 60's should we be on the brink of a full
scale global economic collapse which would not be the case in the 60's.This unique volcanic-like scenerio means it's likely gold
could be worth considerably more in a nearer term than it took gold to rise so much about a decade after the late 60's.




Blackjack (11/10/02; 21:57:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89227)
Japan: Trade Surplus Down 6.8% , Bad Loans up by $109 Billion
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873166702
Tokyo stocks lost ground on Monday morning, as the banking sector took a hit after the country's financial regulator increased its assessment of their bad loan holdings.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 average lost 1.8 per cent to 8,534.89, while the broader Topix index was off 1.9 per cent to 845.98.

Japan's Financial Services Agency revealed over the weekend it believes bad loans at the country's banks are Y13,000bn ($109bn) greater than the banks say. The publication of the FSA's estimate rides roughshod over the sensitivities of senior executives at the country's largest banks and is likely to further sour relations between Heizo Takenaka, FSA head, and the banks' boards of directors.

The banking sector was off 3.5 per cent, with Mizuho Holdings, the world's biggest bank by assets, off 7.7 per cent to Y156,000. UFJ Holdings was down 8.9 per cent to Y143,000, while Sumitomo Mitsui was off 6.3 per cent to Y418.

Adding to the gloom was data released Monday morning that showed Japan's current account surplus – a broad measure of trade in goods and services – slipped 6.8 per cent in September, for the first time in a year. The data adds to mounting evidence that the country's fragile export-led recovery has peaked.

Japan's top exporters lost ground on the news, with Sony shedding 3.3 per cent to Y5,020 and Toyota Motor off 1.6 per cent to Y3,090. Honda Motor lost 4.9 per cent to Y4,100 and consumer electronics maker Sharp was off 2.1 per cent to Y1,080. Semiconductor maker Advantest was 4.3 per cent lower to Y4,680 and rival Tokyo Electron was down 5.4 per cent to Y5,010.
______
Asia markets tanking

harryo (11/10/02; 21:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89226)
gold contest
$$$$319.70$$$$ Buying gold today relates to the 60's value in two ways: Given inflation since that time the current price is probably pretty close to the purchasing power then. Also Gold would have been a bargain then and is one now. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the coming inflation will diminish the actual value of gold (as opposed to price), in US$, dramatically.


Sierra Madre (11/10/02; 21:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89225)
Questions about a cheaper dollar

TheCoinGuy in a post earlier today (#89199) quoted a snippit in which Charles Spence of ING Capital said he thought we might see the dollar at $1.20 to the Euro, in a week, due to heavy foreign selling.

That would mean that the dollar, instead of being worth some 99 euro-cents as of today, would be worth only 83 euro-cents.

Now the question we are about to see answered, is:

"Does a cheaper dollar mean CHEAPER GOLD?"

If the answer is "Yes" - and I don't think that's a reasonable answer, but, you never know - then we would see gold in Euroland at 266.66/oz (supposing the price in dollars remains at $320.) It does not seem reasonable to me, that a weakening dollar would drag down gold with it!

If the answer is "No", then we will see the dollar price of gold go UP, to $384, supposing gold in Euroland stays at 320 euros/oz. If it's the dollar that is weakening and being sold, it stands to reason that its power to purchase gold will also weaken, requiring more dollars to purchase an ounce. (However, strange things do happen...)

Which is it going to be? Of course, I am here supposing that Spence's prediction comes true. It does seem rather drastic, but...when confidence goes (I have seen this many times) it goes very quickly and nobody wants to be the last to leave a burning theatre.

The next week should provide us with much action. Stay tuned.

Sierra





Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 21:22:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89224)
Attention Sir Brett Woods !! A "Rule 7" need NOW !! <;-)
Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:45:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89221)
$$$$326.3$$$$
Oops! Sorry, Aureo Speedwagon. I'll go for this one then.

Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89220)
(No Subject)
$$$$326.4$$$$
The pog might consolidate in the coming week at this higher level but the gold bull is definately here imo and with the usual volitility, looks like clear sailing until June 2004 with potential re-evaluation of this forcast around September 2003. Good luck to all!


mikal (11/10/02; 21:18:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89223)
@SweetSixteen
Well said! Isn't it true that woman like gold? But talking about jewelry is taboo to many. But wait until those husbands find out what that jewelry box REALLY holds. As you may know, Michael Kosares sells BEAUTIFUL gold jewelry. Best regards.

BILLYG (11/10/02; 21:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89222)
$$$$ 317.70 $$$$
$$$$ 317.70 $$$$

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

I was just a kid at that time but I can remember when gold was hitting new highs (above 800.00) and a friend of the family's came over with a new gold coin. Now that I know him better it was a good indicator that the price was topping out. I remember when every one was cashing in all their silverware. Must have been quite the news event to remember it so clearly.
The reason my price is lower than the current price, looks to me the Gold Stocks are running into selling in here and may be in for a correction. I will probably start taking profits and short some tech stocks that also look over extended. I don't post often but I do read this message base every day. I appreciate the wisdom.


Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:45:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89221)
$$$$326.3$$$$
Oops! Sorry, Aureo Speedwagon. I'll go for this one then.

Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89220)
(No Subject)
$$$$326.4$$$$
The pog might consolidate in the coming week at this higher level but the gold bull is definately here imo and with the usual volitility, looks like clear sailing until June 2004 with potential re-evaluation of this forcast around September 2003. Good luck to all!

Ole Man (11/10/02; 20:38:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 89219)
Revised number!! $$$$321.80$$$$
I like this number cause it's higer, sorta like good whiskey and my age.
I like this number cause it's higher, sorta like good whiskey and my age; da older da betta!

SWEET 16 (11/10/02; 20:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89218)
$$316.20$$
I think buying gold now is more fun than in those old days. Especially for women like those that write on this page. How many women do you think bought back then? You guys better get busy and start buying too - we aren't waiting for you.

Trurl (11/10/02; 20:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89217)
$$$$ 319,1 $$$$
Discussion:

Buying gold now is very different than buying it at $35/oz in the 1960's. Then as now no one knew the future, but then gold had been at least at $35 since 1934.

Look at the official BLS inflation stats at their web site.
We are currently ( 2002 ) *BELOW* the long time $20.67 price when the US lost it in 1933.

The basic thought is that we still don't know the future, but the spring has got to be coiled much tighter now than in the '60s.



Aureo Speedwagon (11/10/02; 20:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89216)
$$$326.40$$$
In the late 1960s, the price of gold was fixed by the US government and it was illegal for US citizens to own gold bullion. Sure, Nixon's closing of the gold window was only a few years away, but hardly anybody had an inkling it was going to happen.

The biggest difference today is the Internet: it is possible for the average person to study the international gold market and realize the cataclysmic danger approaching.

MO VER MEG (11/10/02; 20:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89215)
$$$$ 318.90 $$$$
Buying gold today is unlike buying gold ever before. I do not believe there has ever been such a concerted effort to manipulate (derivatives to the extreme) the price of gold. Because of said manipulation, holding on to the physical is like climbing a greased pole. Whenever they shake the pole, I just struggle to hold on, continually changing my grip seeking traction. From this precarious perch, I am learning solitary discipline.


Yukon (11/10/02; 20:11:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89214)
$$$$320.3$$$$
Having been born in 1969, I can only go by what I have read and understand about the history of our gold markets. As such, I think that there are many similarities between then(1960's) and now with respect to the gold price.

While most everyone knows that the price of gold was "fixed" at $35/ounce by our government back then, few realize today that even though gold trades around the clock and globe, our government still has listed on its books an official U.S. government price of $42/ounce. This does not really carry much weight with traders and holders of gold, as few would be nieve enough to part with their gold at the official price of $42/ounce when it is trading on the COMEX (even though it is mostly paper gold contracts that are traded there)at $320. But the fact that the U.S. gov. values its holdings at this absurd price is questionable at the very least.

Looking back and looking forward, I believe the present time period will indeed look very similar to the price pattern of the sixties carried forward to the big spike in the eighties. Hopefully, the next time the breakout occurs, there will be little for the powers that be to restrain its movement to its natural equilibrium.

While maintaining the value of our dollar should be foremost on our governments list of things to do, unfortunately for us, since they handed over monetary control to the private Federal Reserve, our best interest has been on the back burner and will remain there until full accountability returns to all who hold office. Only then will there be even a chance of a return to government of the people, by the people, and for the people!

Viva Liberty!

Yukon

Waverider (11/10/02; 19:47:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 89213)
Japan's current account surplus falls on slowing exports
http://asia.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=F5LZNT5AC2ID0CRBAEZSFFA?type=businessnews&StoryID=1710502
Snippit:
'The surplus on Japan's current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, fell for the first time in a year in September as slowing exports threatened to remove the main prop from an economic recovery. Data released on Monday showed that the current account surplus fell 6.8 percent in September from a year earlier to 1.1705 trillion yen ($9.76 billion), putting an end to 11 straight months of growth and falling short of market forecasts. Economists had expected a surplus of about 1.28 trillion yen.

The fact that the current account surplus fell for the first time in a year shows that the prospect of an export-led economic recovery is receding," Shirota said. Rapid export growth that fuelled Japan's recovery from recession earlier this year is showing signs of stalling on the back of stagnant consumer demand in the United States, Japan's biggest export market. Growing tension between the United States and Iraq helped send the dollar lower late last week, putting traders on alert for possible yen-selling intervention by the Finance Ministry. Japan's top financial diplomat, Haruhiko Kuroda, said on Monday morning that recent foreign exchange movements had been "totally inappropriate".

Waverider: More on the economic blues in Japan - I see the Nikkei is off almost 2% tonight, and Mizuho Holdings (Japan's largest bank) is off more than 7% - Mizuho is due to report first-half earnings on Nov. 25.

Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 19:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89211)
"WELCOME" Sir Electrum !!!
Electrum (11/10/02; 14:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89201)
Long time lurker first time poster;
===
An Historical Handle !!
Great to see you here.
<;-)


Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 19:21:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89210)
ATTENTION and also "WELCOME" Sir Ole Man !!!
Ole Man (11/10/02; 12:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 89196)
$$$$320.80$$$$
==
Please be advised that your choice of #320.8 was previously taken by one Sir Basil, back on 11/06/02 !!!
Please, if you can, choose another number.
LOVE that handle !!
<;-)

Operative (11/10/02; 19:01:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89209)
@ Electrum, Welcome to the table!
Liked this part of your post a lot: "Its an opportunity to purchase a parachute while riding the
Hindenburg ".

Well said and it paints a vivid picture in the mind's eye.

Cavan Man (11/10/02; 18:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 89208)
The Big Fat Japanese Conundrum
What would they do without us?
11/10 19:55
Yen May Fall After Kuroda Says Japan to Take Appropriate Action
By John Brinsley and Yumi Kuramitsu


Tokyo, Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yen, little changed, may fall against the dollar after Haruhiko Kuroda, vice finance minister for international affairs, said Japan will take measures to stem the Japanese currency's rise against its U.S. counterpart.

``The yen's recent gain against the dollar is not appropriate and Japan will take appropriate action in the foreign exchange market,'' Kuroda said, raising concerns the Bank of Japan may sell yen.



Mr Gresham (11/10/02; 18:55:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89207)
Electrum: Money for Nothing
Quite an entry! Now I'm gonna have that song in my head all night. (Not complaining.) Now, what were those "4 G's" we're supposed to remember? Ah yes, Gold, Guitars, Girls, and uh, uh, -- Grateful Dead? (Somebody help me here... ;-) )

Mr. Bill (11/10/02; 17:46:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89206)
"The American Empire"
poppycock

Scarab (11/10/02; 17:19:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89205)
$$$$ 323.1 $$$$
Better or worse that $35? Better if you observe the vast amount of paper dollars that have been created over the last 10-15 yrs. Somehow the slate will have to be reconciled. And the time is approaching fast for the final reckoning. And a huge upset in the world financial system.

Belgian (11/10/02; 17:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89204)
Farfel is Angry...
Courageous knight, Farfel, is angry about the GS-joke. Lucky, he hasn't read Tim Wood's comment on Denver, or he would be furious.
Why should we be angry when we regulary get our *indirect*, evidence that Gold, still is tremendously powerful. The evidence lies in the complete "absurd and idiotic" approach to Gold by insiders who really know much better than that ! That makes this public Gold-theatre, so terribly funny. Yes, for amusement only !

But it is bedtime and don't have the courage to elaborate much further on it. Knowing very well that a majority on this forum knows, what Gold stands for and isn't impressed, at all, with stunts à la GS. Was happy to see that Farfel is still alive and kicking.

Belgian (11/10/02; 16:27:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 89203)
The Illusion ?
Reflexions on "The American Empire" > Asia Times :
Let us suppose that the ME oil comes under Western control and a dramatic decline of the POO (10$-15$) would create the necessary bout of optimism/euphory to quick-start, global or Western economy.
Two threaths will grow exponentially :
1/ 1,2 Billion, humiliated, islamists will plunge into further poverty.
See GDP figures for the whole ME region and growth of the population as to realize how poor they really are.
Terror cannot be eradicated and will continue to threathen any economic recovery.
2/ Russia cannot live with a POO ranging between 10$-15$.
They will react, in-directly to this event.
(Iraq oil costs 0,75 cts and Russian oil between 8$ and 10$-give or take on these figures).

Can this globe live and prosper with increasing terror, produced by 1,5 Billion people (ME+Russia) because of convenient low oilprices for Americas/Euroland/Japan/China ?

I fiend it difficult to believe, we can ?

Just waking up (11/10/02; 15:56:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89202)
$$$$ 322.0 $$$$
Is buying gold now like buying gold at $35 an ounce in the late 1960s?

YES. In several important ways it is.


First, and most foundational, is the fact that in both cases the POG has been suppressed, for decades, to artificially low levels to preserve the dollar's role as the world's reserve currancy. In the late 1960s, as well as now, this suppression was coming to an end. Back then it led to a decade-long bull market in gold. There is reason to believe it will again.

In the late 1960s we were getting ready to enter a period of war, uncertainty, unrest and severe recession (1974), kinda like today.

The 1970s were marked by an inflationary destruction of paper assets, during which gold emerged as the premier means to protect wealth. Looks like it's going to be deja-vu all over again.

And, finally, buying gold now is like buying it in the late 1960s because the reasons and wisdom for buying gold have been unchanged for thousands of years and in every culture.

We watch expectantly,

Bob

Electrum (11/10/02; 14:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89201)
the guess
Greetings honorable host, Knights and ladys

Long time lurker first time poster;

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at 35 an ounce in the late 1960's?" NO !!!

If you can recall that era, it was a gentler time. There were economic problems on the horizon, but that generation was prepared to cope. My father worked in the automotive industry and there were several times in the 60s he was laid off from work. 4 children at home a wife that did not work or even drive.
He would calmly find odd jobs increase the size of the garden and do whatever was needed to get us by.
We had a 1959 Ford station wagon that was inherited when my grandfather passed away. In essence we had no real debt aside the house and that was pretty typical of our neighborhood. Most of the time there were no discretional dollars to spend or save. At that time to save was to sacrifice. As I view my current situation Gold and silver are purchased with discretionary dollars, I have forgone a vacation or two to add some bright shiny metal to the collection but don't view that as a sacrifice. Its an opportunity to purchase a parachute while riding the Hindenburg

Bankers in control for now $ 323.6

look at those yoyos thats the way they do it
they run the presses for the treasury
look at um thats what there doing
Fiat worth nothing so gold is free
Best regards to all E.



Boilermaker (11/10/02; 14:06:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89200)
"The American Empire" Francesco Sisci (parts:1/2/3).
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ18Ak02.html
Just finished this essay recommended by Belgian and Ari. I concur with their advice; read it.

Boilermaker

The CoinGuy (11/10/02; 12:50:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 89199)
Jimbo, All
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APc59tRXCVS5TLiBE
Good to be back in town, looks like I have a LOT of catching up to do, mail a mile thick, and lots of good posts to read.

Jimbo, took a cursory look at that article you mentioned, it looks as though there was a precursory to your statement.

snippit:

Dimming the outlook for the economy and the dollar, some investors are concerned about ``the effect of an action against Iraq having a devastating impact on consumer spending,'' said Charles Spence, director of foreign-exchange sales at ING Capital Markets LLC, who said the dollar may drop to $1.2050 per euro and to 116 yen in a week. ``We're seeing the bulk of the dollar selling coming from overseas,'' reflecting heightened concern, he said.


Gold, Got some...saw a nice box in that stack of mail(yeah!)

The(physical)CoinGuy

Yellow Jacket (11/10/02; 12:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89198)
$$$$$322.8$$$$$
Is buying gold today like buying at $35 in the late 60s?
In many ways yes.The price was set at35 in 1933 but the dollar lost much of its value by the 60s.That made gold at 35 undervalued at that time.If you compare the purchasing power of the dollar in 1933 to today,then gold is still undervalued at$320.
The main differerce between the 1960s and today is that deflation is in our future.

jimbojim39 (11/10/02; 12:37:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 89197)
US Dollar
Bloomberg's has an article today indicating that the USA dollar could fall to $1.20 per Euro BY THE END OF THE WEEK!! Looks like parity is dead and gone!!!

Ole Man (11/10/02; 12:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 89196)
$$$$320.80$$$$
Compared to the 1960's buying gold in the USA today is relatively unchanged. This appears true for a couple of reasons. Ownership then was legal only for collectors. Most people had no interest because it was not part of their reality. Today, the situation is similar, thought people can own gold they are not interested because they do not recognize gold as money. While ownership is possible, it will take a little longer for the public to get a clue as to gold's store of value. Equity investors have yet to experience more loss before the dawn.

Aristotle (11/10/02; 12:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89195)
Belgian, that was an excellent bit of reading
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ18Ak02.html
I've been known to wander around in the ATimes archives when time allows, and I even remember walking past this series a time or two (the distinctive picture of G.W. Bush as emperor is a hard thing to miss or forget!!) but never paused long enough to read it.

Thanks for giving me just the push I needed to get the job done. It's a brilliant little package. I'll echo your call for everyone to add this to their reading list. It really fits in well with our recent discussion about the current nature and notions of "us guys" and "them guys" as we're all in the same boat.

To help anyone find it I've given the address of the third part of the series because it's the only part that also provides direct links to both of the other parts. Be sure to start with part one though when you get there because Sisci gives a delightfully linear presentation that you'll want to read beginning to end. It's a good lesson in morality and responsibility that every intelligent inhabitant of our planet (not a ship of fools, I hope!!) should weigh and consider in their own minds and hearts.

Gold. You know the routine. --- Ari

Prometheus (11/10/02; 11:50:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 89194)
$$$$ 326.0 $$$$
I expect the POG will bump up against it's overhead resistance at $326 at least one more time before it begins the big move upward. That should happen sometime this week. Whether it happens by Tuesday, I'm not sure; but I'm going to go with that.

As to the question of whether buying gold today at $300+ is like buying at $35 in the 1960's, it seems that other posters have given the data indicating that, in inflation adjusted terms anyway, it's about the same. But I have a different thought to throw out for consideration. I think the POG supression is a good thing. The government stole the people's gold away from them at $22/oz. I think it should sell it back to us for the same price - ALL OF IT! I think they should push the price all the way down, at least to $35 at least, and then sell us back what they stole from us. The government shouldn't possess ANY of OUR gold! They should give ALL of it back, as cheaply as possible, and the the PEOPLE could set the proper price in worthless pieces of green paper for OUR gold, which I'm sure would be considerably higher than what the arrogant paper pushers would say it should be.

My two cents worth.

P.

Gandalf the White (11/10/02; 11:28:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89193)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
The GC2Z POG Price Settlement CONTEST !!!
ELEVENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 11:15 Denver time 11/10/02
A total of 59 Prognostications to date !
Get your Number soon as the rush will be on MONDAY !
(As my Crystal Ball says that the total will be over 150 guesses !!!!!) (The Hobbits are scheduling overtime !)
--
Rule #6 says, "All ‘Guesses’ MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th."
--
THEREFORE there are less than TWENTY-FIVE (25) Hours to go !!!! Don't miss this CONTEST, ---all you procrastinators !!!
<;-)
===

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :
11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6

(looks as if Sir 18K is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---

THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ****** as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December ‘02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/02; 09:27:27MT - msg#: 89191

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Shermag (11/09/02; 19:13:41MT - msg#: 89168

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020
$$$$ 322.4 $$$$ ManAurum (11/09/02; 22:03:13MT - msg#: 89177

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ Yellow Metal (11/10/02; 05:49:21MT - msg#: 89185

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892
$$$$ 320.7 $$$$ seagull (11/09/02; 21:47:22MT - msg#: 89176

$$$$ 320.5 $$$$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 Rule 7 nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 315.6 $$$$ silvercollector (11/10/02; 06:58:06MT - msg#: 89188

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ Christian (11/10/02; 06:46:53MT - msg#: 89187

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)
===
<;-)



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/10/02; 11:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89192)
Common sense investing for common and uncommon times...
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Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

Thursday February 9
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