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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/10/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Carl H (04/10/01; 23:51:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51690)
Gold being withdrawn from COMEX warehouses.
I noticed somthing about the COMEX warehouse stocks over the last few days:

COMEX Gold
Net
Gold Ttl Received Withdrawn change Adjustment Ttl Date
Ttl 1,302,372 0 0 0 0 1,302,372 4/3
Ttl 1,302,372 0 103 -103 0 1,302,269 4/4
Ttl 1,302,269 0 0 0 0 1,302,269 4/5
Ttl 1,302,269 0 64,181 -64,181 0 1,238,088 4/6
Ttl 1,238,088 0 93,309 -93,309 0 1,144,779 4/9
Ttl 1,144,779 0 125,850 -125,850 0 1,018,929 4/10


In case the formatting makes it hard to read, the short version is that about 280,000Oz out of 1,300,000Oz have been withdrawn in the past 3 trading days. This will be interesting to watch.


tg (04/10/01; 23:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51689)
Al fulchino - (the loved one)
Hello Al,

you - But the track record of the US , although not perfect is odds on better than that of the Communist Chinese

me - thats what you think only because you have been given selected truths not all. IF only the media was truly free, then you would be able to decide the truth.

you - I agree that the gov'ts are both seeking legitimacy, but not all is propaganda, history tells us that sometimes there is action behind the statements.

Me - very vague non answer, You can do better

You - What makes you think I agreed with the Waco decision by Reno?

me - i dont. What makes you think the average person in China agrees with suppression of religon. ( even though various religons are practiced in China) Im just trying to show you the inconsistancies

You - I have free speech. In fact it seems to have iritated you, that I have it.

Me - you have free speech when it suits the status quo. Try expressing free speech through the mass media when it goes against the status quo. Remember the communist witch hunts??

You - I don't think you like me.

Me - I do like you. You try to educate me and i respect that. However you have not really answered the question. Did it ever occur that your replies here are formulated by the propaganda you are repeatedly exposed to. ( a form of psycho politics)


Al Fulchino (04/10/01; 23:02:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 51688)
God Bless America
Here is just an aside. To me the USA GOLD Forum is not just about the metal because of what gold can and has stood as a symbol for. It will always mean that this forum must from time to time stray away from just metal talk. If gold means honest money then almost any honesty or truth issue can be brought up. If gold means wealth preservation then a lot of politics can be brought up. It can mean war, it can mean oil, it can me wealth etc

Because of recent posts and current events, I present this:

"We're Americans and we have a rendezvous with destiny.... No people
> who have ever lived on this earth have fought harder, paid a higher
> price for freedom, or done more to advance the dignity of man than
> Americans." --Ronald Reagan

I am an unapologetic lover of the America that Ronald Reagan loved. We have done some things very well, and those that bash us from with our own shores are free to do so, under the protection of what others have fought for. Now some of what they say is deserved. But like an inventor we have to take what works and improve upon it and take the failures for what they can teach. Those that would dismantle us to take away all our faults will by default raise up our equally or more so imperfect enemies/neighbors. These passions are usually filled with hate, but definitely filled with shortsightedness.


Al Fulchino (04/10/01; 22:24:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51687)
Responses to posts directed my way
rc (04/10/01; 14:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 51677)
Chinese say the US plane was their territorial waters. US say the plane was in international waters.
Somebody is lying. But to believe the Chinese are the liars is to be naive.
Keep in mind that most of what you read in the newspapers is essentially propaganda. It has nothing to do with reality

me: RC, remember that some here would just have us apologize. Ludicrous. Can the US be lying, yes of course.
But the track record of the US , although not perfect is odds on better than that of the Communist Chinese. And then
you say " to believe the Chinese are liars is to be naïve?" Sir/Madam, you cannot be serious. I have spoken many times in my life before I should have, so I recognize that type of statement as not being well thought out. Care to take another crack at it? Certainly the Red Chinese are VERY capable of lying!

ET (4/10/2001; 7:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51668)
Hey Al - how you been doin? How's the art biz?
In my opinion Al, all these governments are searching for legitimacy at the moment. They are all attempting to justify their take. It would seem China is the "new" perceived enemy. I figure most of what we hear, if not all, is just propaganda.

Me: ET, I still cannot picture what you look like, but I wonder <smile> Anyway to your comments. The art biz is doing well enough that we are building our third store and they take all my spare time, but building a new venture is fun, and this operation includes my wife and daughter. Also the gas stations are doing well too. I agree that the gov'ts are both seeking legitimacy, but not all is propaganda, history tells us that sometimes there is action behind the statements. I am still surprised however that you brought up von Mises in this. To think in this way would mean we have to go back to the first human beings and start tallying sheets. Isn't the world full of " he started it"s?. Seems we are all natural at that as kids. When do we get past that? When is it just you and me, and how we treat each other?

Strad Master (04/10/01; 01:34:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51656)
AL: Thanks so much for the link. It looks fascinating! I can't wait to read it.
Me: It is excellent reading and should be required, tell me if you agree when you are through.
And I say bravo to your comments made to Peter A and Mr G regarding China.

Mr Gresham (04/10/01; 00:18:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51655)

Al -- Your passion and integrity are your strengths. I'm glad to see you posting here again, and I didn't read those posts today in depth -- no time -- but are you really staying with the spirit of the message you want to be about here? (I guess I count on you for that special "N.H. something" my Mom had that I don't get from anyone out here in the West very much -- danged if I know what it is, but I'm always impressed when I hear your best thoughts!)

Me; Thanks! I think! <smile> I am not sure why you think I am veering away. In fact, if you do end up reading the posts, keep in mind that they are responses to comments made by individuals here.


tg (04/09/01; 23:45:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 51654)
al fulchino
Something i forgot to add, you talk about China having
1/suppression of religon. Better that then manipulation of religon to suit the status quo. If they cant manipulate it they get rid of it, just like they did in Waco

Me: You surprise me here. Two words come to mind when you speak of ridding religion. Falun Gong. Second What makes you think I agreed with the Waco decision by Reno?

2/slave labour camps. - Im not sure they exist in China, but if they do are they similar to minimum wage in the US. I

Me: You do not really expect me to think there are no slave labor camps in China do you? Secondly, check out Walter Williams some time, he has some pointed comments about the minimum wage. Also, if you think all people deserve a minimum wage, you have not spent much time training people who have spent more time watching Jerry Springer than doing their math homework. As an aside, I pay people higher.

3/ free speech. - dont even get started on that. You THINK you have free speech and freedom of the press. As a long time forum member i would think that you would know better by now. I guess that psycho-politics has worked well

Me: I have free speech. In fact it seems to have iritated you, that I have it. So your statement belies your feelings. Your post exhibits that you also have it.

tg (04/09/01; 23:19:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51651)
al fulchino
A quote from the link you gave -

"Psychopolitics is the art and science of asserting and maintaining dominion over the thoughts and loyalties of the individuals, officers, bureaus, and masses, and the effecting of the conquest of the enemy nations through "mental healing."
That is exactly what is happening in the US today.
Also, no one is saying China is without guilt or wrong doings, either today or in the past. The point of contention is that people like you have had your thoughts and loyalties so brain- washed that you never envisage that the US ever commits a wrong.

Me: I don't think you like me.
Journeyman (04/09/01; 23:06:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51650)
Where does the buck stop? @Al Fulchino, Le Sin, tg, Et, ALL
Me: This was a great post, Nice JOB! As far as messing all over the ‘hood’, didn't Washington tell us to avoid foreign entanglements? And to your other question, yes I am partly responsible for all that happens in Washington DC, in my time and age. The hands I possess, the voice I carry are my only tools that my mind and heart can utilize to evoke what my soul loves. Where will things end if I and others in the have are always being blamed for all that has gone wrong in history. Blame me if I wrong you. Do not blame me if some other man or woman has wronged your grandfather or someone who belongs to your race, creed etc. If this was how we all should behave then I could be chasing Irish and Brahmins in the courts and on the streets. None have them have wronged me personally. And those that have wronged me are MY problem and mine alone.



SHIFTY (04/10/01; 21:26:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 51686)
The Missing Link
http://www.shibumi.org/eoti.htm
What a find!

:-)
$hifty

Shermag (04/10/01; 21:20:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 51685)
Journeyman, R Powell, Solomon Weaver - Copper
I have an intuitive sense that the copper situation of today is similar to oil in 98.

You will recall that the POO plunged to extreme lows in late 98, kissing the $10/bbl level. The aftermath of the Asian contagion of 97 had resulted in a temporary reduction in demand there, while the LTCM debacle in 98 had destabilized confidence in much of the rest of the world's economy. Predictions of $6 oil were all the rage. Meanwhile, the supply - demand situation had quietly reversed, resulting in a drawdown in inventories into the northern hemisphere's winter, and the price drop had done its job on the exploration budgets of the oil companies. Throw in a generous supply of fiat dollars to chase this oil, and kaboom - a price explosion ensued. The rest is now history.

I have little direct knowledge of the supply-inventory-consumption dynamic of copper, so I am only speculating here, but some of those same pressures must be in place. Sub $1 POC for almost 4 years, coupled with high electrical costs of late should be having a constraining effect on the supply. I'm not sure what to believe on the inventory story, but my past readings lead me to believe Moffet is a straight shooter. As to the consumption end of the story, I believe Black Blade has made a convincing argument for the need for elevated consumption here to enhance an electrical generation-delivery infrastructure. Certainly the psychology has it that demand will decline in the near future.

Misconceptions are what market opportunities are made of. Got copper?

Shermag

canamami (04/10/01; 20:40:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51684)
A partial explanation of Euro/$US valuations?
Don Coxe's April 6 call related the following theory: Those involved in the underground economy in Europe used to accumulate DMarks and some French francs. There will be a recording process when these currencies are changed into Euros. This process was designed to catch money and participants in the underground economy. Hence, such individuals are purchasing dollars with these DMarks and francs, to avoid the bureaucracy involved with converting to Euros. The underground economy in Europe is considerable: For example, apparently one-third of Italy's GNP is in the underground economy. Thus, this is one factor holding up the dollar.

SHIFTY (04/10/01; 19:55:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51683)
The Stranger
Found it!

Thanks
$hifty

TheStranger (04/10/01; 17:25:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 51682)
SHIFTY'S Answer
Hi, SHIFTY...

I posted an article by Art Laffer on March 22.(see post#50590). I believe the Laffer piece is an excellent and accurate primer for anybody wishing to understand the machinations of the Fed. Nonetheless, you ought to know that Barron's published a piece on this same subject on March 26. In it, Gene Epstein argued that the understanding represented by Laffer's piece is flawed. (In case you would like to read Epstein, I am pasting it below). THEN, believe it or not, Epstein followed with still another peice on the subject in the April 2 Barron's. I will post that piece too if anyone is interested.


March 26, 2001

Forget That Stuff You Learned About the Fed
By GENE EPSTEIN

Remember being taught in sixth grade civics class that the legislative branch of government makes the law, the judiciary interprets the law, while the executive is strictly responsible for law enforcement? As though our currently reigning executive isn't trying to push through a massive tax cut, or as if the judiciary isn't in the habit of issuing legal edicts of its own.

But that particular catechism at least has the virtue of simplicity. For a truly torturous experience in the disconnect between school learning and the real world, try coping with a college-level econ course in money and banking.

There you get inculcated in the whopper that the Federal Reserve directly manages the money supply. And to add insult to intellectual injury, you have to do the math on how the central bank is supposed to achieve this end via the push-and-pull of the money "multiplier." You confront the never-never-land algebra of money "velocity," and are forced to use this bogus concept to estimate just how a change in the supply of money affects the price level. All the while, you are subject to the sorry spectacle of economists aping the physical sciences, and get cheated out of real insight in the process.

But okay, if you forget the rest and simply walk away with Milton Friedman's dictum about inflation being always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon (a point that's embedded in all those formulas), then you'll walk away with a truly valuable insight.

Somewhere the Austrian economist F.A. Hayek wrote that while the mechanistic MV-PT equation (where m-money, v-velocity, p-prices, t-transactions) was essentially wrong, he was still grateful that men believed in it, since it helped alert them to government's power to cause inflation by printing money. The fact that our citizens seem to grasp the inherent relationship between money growth and inflation as never before is a milestone in the intellectual progress of our civilization. Not so long ago, Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith could get away with writing in his 1967 bestseller, The New Industrial State, "The seemingly obvious remedy for the wage-price spiral is to regulate wages and prices."

But the central bank long ago abandoned the idea of directly influencing growth in the money supply. Its week-to-week role actually consists of accommodating whatever amount of money and credit the economy may require. What it does target is the interest rate on federal funds, which are immediately available reserve balances held by member banks. Last week, in fact, it lowered the target rate on fed funds to 5% from 5u%. But whether this results in accelerated growth in those various measures of money remains to be seen.

True, when interest rates fall, economic activity tends to quicken, and when the economy accelerates, its demand for money and credit tends to grow. Contrariwise, a hike in interest rates slows growth, and when the economy slows, its need for money and credit also tends to slow. So in that sense, Fed policy does influence the growth of the money supply, but only in that sense. What this means is that on any given day, the central bank sets the "price" of that commodity called money, but at that price, it satisfies all comers. Not long ago, when the central bank was in the process of hiking rates, an article in the business pages of the New York Times commented conspiratorally that while the Fed chairman was ostensibly pursuing a tight money policy on the one hand, he was actively flooding the market with liquidity at the very same time, as measured by the accelerated growth of the standard M's. But Mr. Greenspan is innocent of all such sleight of hand, because at any given interest rate, money growth is always demand-driven.

Nor is it driven by the multiplier model, which Louis Crandall, chief economist of Wrightson Associates, once aptly called a form of academic malpractice on the part of those foolish enough to teach it. In case you forget (and let's hope you did), the Fed is first supposed to "inject" a thousand bucks of "new reserves" into some lucky bank by buying a Treasury bill, and the way the math works, if the reserve requirements on that thousand run 10%, a chain reaction is set off that results in total money creation of ten times that, or $10,000. As Samuelson and Nordhaus sum up the situation in language bound to inspire (Economics, 16th edition), "If total new deposits were less than $10,000, the 10% reserve ratio would not yet have been reached, and full equilibrium would not have been attained."

Equilibrium, my foot; that Rube Goldberg puts the monetary cart before the banking horse. The way things actually work, the banks that are part of the system must at any point in time satisfy reserve requirements for checking deposits that were on their books about 30 days ago! In other words, the 10,000 bucks got created last month by the bank's need to satisfy their customers, along with many thousands of dollars more. And there would be hell to pay if the Fed didn't make it quite clear to all involved that the reserves will be there to cover those commitments.

Similarly, this month's commitments must be covered next month, and so on. The Fed's job lies elsewhere: To the extent that the banks need to borrow federal funds from each other to satisfy reserve requirements, it wants them to pay the current rate of 5%, a target it hits through "open market" operations, or the buying and selling of Treasuries.

Only after we throw away our textbooks and try to grasp instead the real fundamentals of this process, does it become possible to see money's role in fueling inflation on the one hand, and the real economic forces that can fan inflation on the other. Take wage hikes as an example. A rise in wage rates boosts the demand for money, as businesses borrow from their banks in order to meet those higher payrolls.

But once those accounts are created, the commitments must be covered by the Fed. So in the current monetary regime, a rise in demand can call forth more supply, spurring inflation in the process.

next week, why the mechanistic concept of money's "velocity" of circulation serves only to prevent us from understanding the insidious way accelerating inflation can be caused by a money expansion. But meanwhile, two questions for homework:

1. Harvard economist N. Gregory Mankiw writes (Principles of Economics, first. edition): "In physics, the term velocity refers to the speed at which an object travels. In economics, the velocity of money refers to the speed at which the typical dollar bill travels around the economy from wallet to wallet." But then he writes: "To calculate the velocity of money, we divide the nominal value of output (nominal GDP) by the quantity of money." What's wrong with that statement?

(Hint: GDP covers only final product-e.g., the sale of a loaf of bread. What happened to all the intermediate transactions: the sale of wheat to the miller, the sale of flour to the baker, and so on? Don't they also involve dollar bills "traveling from wallet to wallet"?)

2. In his July 1999 testimony before the House Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Greenspan made the following remarks: "The central bank cannot effectively target stock or other asset prices. Should an asset bubble arise, or even if one is already in train, monetary policy properly calibrated can doubtless mitigate at least part of the impact on the economy. And obviously, if we could find a way to prevent or deflate emerging bubbles, we would be better off."

Why is that last statement a tad hypocritical, coming from a central banker?

(Hint: He helps cause bubbles.)




Hill Billy Mitchell (04/10/01; 15:44:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51681)
Gandalf the White # 51673
Sir Gandalf

My sentiments exactly. Black Blade tells us six months ahead what is coming in Kalifornia. The public is oblivious until Friday. PG & E defaults. Now that the public has the truth in full view, up goes the market.

Another big dump is just around the corner. Much bad news being held up for just the right moment.

Respectfully,

HBM



Humble Pie (04/10/01; 15:11:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51680)
#51677
Al thats not lying ,its just a difference of opinion. It all depends on which side of the fence your'e on.It's all designed to consune time.

SHIFTY (04/10/01; 15:06:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51679)
The Stranger
Hello Sir Stranger : A short wile back you had a post about the interest rate drop from the fed and who benefited from it. Do you know the date of the post ? Or maybe you could re-post it?
Thanks
$hifty

R Powell (04/10/01; 14:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51678)
Journeyman (51672)
I heard Moffett's prediction that there was only enough copper for three weeks. Being that he is a CEO of a large copper producer, I was intrigued by his prediction and waited for the POCopper to rise. That statement was made on Jan. 18 and the rise in copper prices never came. Now three weeks plus four weeks more have come and gone.
What can we figure out from this?
Either Moffett was lying, misinformed or based his forecast on unreliable fundamental information. I tend to think that copper supplies, like many other commodities, are extremely hard (impossible) to estimate accurately. This is even truer of gold. I've been told by cotton merchants that sales or export numbers are sometimes intentionally withheld for a time if the withholding is in the merchants interest. Gold and silver, IMHO, are absolutely the hardest to figure as reliable supply and demand numbers are simply not available. It is this non-transparent feature of gold that adds uncertainty and volatility to prices. After the POG doubles in a very short time (similar to natural gas) even the experts will raise their eyebrows and say, "Wow, that was quick! Did anyone see that one coming?"
I don't think Moffett was intentionally misleading the market with his statement. Perhaps the amounts of materials available for delivery aren't clearly known by anyone??
Thoughts/info on gold supply shortage if indeed higher lease rates are the result of short supply?
Rich

rc (04/10/01; 14:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 51677)
US spy plane
Al Fuchino
Chinese say the US plane was their territorial waters. US say the plane was in international waters.

Somebody is lying. But to believe the Chinese are the liars is to be naive.

Keep in mind that most of what you read in the newspapers is essentially propaganda. It has nothing to do with reality.

Mr Gresham (04/10/01; 13:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51676)
POG: Recession = Deflation? Working Model?
Absent manipulation at the top, and backroom assurances to players that it will continue, market players with any old learnings about gold and inflationary times are probably playing this as a deflationary bust in POG ahead. Otherwise, they'd be scooping up ounces and clearing the store shelves.

However, this time, as FOA and others bring to us in many examples, the maneuvering room within brittle structures is being squeezed out. There are defaults built into overleveraged positions, that only require a certain combination of further oscillations (even in once-thought-positive directions, now weirdly-hedged in) and time to come forward.

Hard to measure, quantify, verify -- even economists with their statistical biases do not train for one-off crisis predictions -- so we end up after much reading with mostly an intuitive "gestalt" view of where the breaking points may be.

So, on my "inflation/stable deflation/default" spectrum (which translates into POG "UP/down/UP"), we seem to be notching closer to some 2- or 3-sigma default events, which will be here when they get here -- almost surprising us even after all our watching.

The "stable deflation" middle will quickly become almost impossible to sustain (Fed's job), and a Stagflation scenario mixes up the worst of all three components. More input welcome...

Mr Gresham (04/10/01; 13:13:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51675)
Still Quiet Hereabouts
(Maybe if we're vewwy-vewwy quiet, the POG-suppression team will go away...)

(Even better -- anybody wanna CAPITULATE? -- probably give us a good month-long rally if you would. Didn't we get a little bounce a while back out of one of our guys, after we were trying to talk him out of it?)

They probably have a web-bot that scans the Web among sites like this one, and reports back right into P-e-t-e-r F-i-s-h-e-r's computer the pessimism levels. Perhaps they scan _everything_ printed, and we could arrange to have "And he was a devoted, lifelong GOLDBUG to the end" printed in all obituaries where it is remotely applicable. Talk about "taking one for the team"!

(I need to invent some little graphic symbols to put alongside my weird flings at humor; the usual ones don't seem to go with it as I'd like...)


Randy (@ The Tower) (04/10/01; 10:54:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 51674)
The New "Fifth Horseman" as seen by our keen-eyed Forum participants
http://www.usagold.com/hall/NewHorseman.html
The review continues to determine the gold winner. In the meanwhile you, too, can review these "field reports" and continue discussing the likely spark that shall ignite future gold demand.

Gandalf the White (04/10/01; 10:14:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51673)
SEE IT NOW --- at any Brokers Office !
WOWSERS -- Look at that GIGANTIC BEAR TRAP being performed today !!!! UNBELIEVABLE
<;-)

Journeyman (04/10/01; 09:36:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 51672)
Copper contradictions @Solomon Weaver, ALL who care to indulge

Hi Solomon!

Glad to read ya again!

Your post on copper (I know you posted it because of your
interest in silver) is an interesting counter-point to the
following:

-BILL GRIFFETH: ~"But what about the supply and demand for gold?
Isn't the demand for gold greater than the supply? MOFFETT: ~"The
central banks are the OPEC of gold. They will control the price
of gold by selling untill they change their minds." . . . "There
are only three weeks of copper left. When the price of copper
goes to $4 or $5, people will be saying, 'Why didn't anybody tell
me this?'" -James Moffett, Freeport-McMoRan Chmn. & CEO, CNBC,
Jan 18, 2001, ~12:43PM EST

Rhetorical questions for anyone who cares to indulge:

Seems there is some dissonance between James Moffett and the
price and supply of "visible copper" as reflected in your post
#51671! Was Moffett, a mining CEO, incorrect about the supplies
of copper, has the economy actually slowed that much, or is
something else going on?

Doesn't seem like dis-information; could it be missing context?
Or is the derivatives effect (derivatives acting like supply) in
play?

Regards,
Journeyman


Solomon Weaver (04/10/01; 09:08:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51671)
Silver production will fall with copper
COMEX copper drops to 21-month low on economy jitters
April 06, 2001 3:35:00 PM ET


NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - COMEX copper tumbled to a 21-month low on Friday as floor speculators continued to fret that a weak economy and equites bear market would stifle demand for important industrial materials.

Benchmark May copper <0#HG:> ended down 1.80 cents at 75.05 cents a lb, touching a low of 74.80, its weakest since June 24, 1999.

"Locals kept pushing it and London kept coming off, but there was really no volume," said a floor broker.

Spot April declined 1.80 to 74.60 a lb and other months fell 0.55 to 1.75 cent.

New York futures took their initial cue from weakness in London Metal Exchange prices. LME three months copper ended the evening kerb down $36 at $1,661 a tonne.

The copper decline accelerated after the U.S. Labor Department reported the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in March, its highest since mid 1999. A total 86,000 nonfarm jobs were lost, the largest drop since November 1991.

One New York trader said the market was seeking fair value for copper, given the current economic cycle. "Sometimes I think this market really needs to admit the fact that we are in recession and be done with it," he said.

The movements coincided with renewed stock selling on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average was down 197 points in the afternoon and the Nasdaq was off 73 points, halving Thursday's respective 402 and 146 point spikes.

But dealers said copper had its own momentum, having fallen steadily from around 85 cents since March, and only seemed to correlate strongly with stocks when they were falling.

Dealers said a key support to watch in New York was 74.10, a spot continuation low from April 2000.

The worrisome build up in visible copper inventories continued. LME copper warehouse stocks rose again, climbing 3,225 metric tonnes overnight, while COMEX copper inventories were up 68 short tons at 110,385 tons late Thursday.

In other supply news, Indonesian miner PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara said Friday it will increase its 2001 copper output by 20 percent to 300,000 tons at its Batu Hijau copper and gold mine.

Estimated copper volume in New York was a moderate 11,000 contracts, up versus Thursday's official 4,609.


Buena Fe (4/10/2001; 8:26:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 51670)
Horse Patooties
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOtMNqRZFRXVybyBT
04/10 09:42
Euro Slips; Central Bank Seen Cutting Interest Rate Too Slowly
By Geraldine Ryerson-Cruz


New York, April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The euro slipped against the yen and the dollar as traders speculated the European Central Bank will fail to cut interest rates fast enough to spur the 12- nation region's economy..........

........."The ECB is the only major central bank not to reduce borrowing costs as signs accumulate that a slowdown in record U.S. economic growth is spreading. The inaction is one reason for the euro's decline, many investors have said".........

JUST LIKE CHINA....STANDING UP TO THE US



The Invisible Hand (4/10/2001; 8:23:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 51669)
Off Topic: Yankees Go Home!
Yes, yesterday I posted already on the Chinese-US submarine thing because I don't understand tedw's reasoning.
I do however still not understand what this has to do with gold.
Or is the US Big Brother spying on the creation of the gold market in Shanghai (spelling, and my apologies for my other mistakes)?
But still if the Chinese government is at fault, why should the good of productive Chinese companies be boycotted?

ET (4/10/2001; 7:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51668)
Al

Hey Al - how you been doin? How's the art biz?

In my opinion Al, all these governments are searching for legitimacy at the moment. They are all attempting to justify their take. It would seem China is the "new" perceived enemy. I figure most of what we hear, if not all, is just propaganda.



nickel62 (04/10/01; 07:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 51667)
Too Funny to not post again and again and again.....Most likley true as well..
MARKET EXPERTS SAY NOW IS NO TIME TO PANIC;
TIME TO PANIC COMES NEXT TUESDAY
Market Simply Undergoing "Healthy Correction" Until Devastating Freefall

Washington, D.C. (SatireWire.com) — Despite the sharp downturn in the stock market, economic and financial experts today advised investors to remain calm and continue to hold on for the long-term, which they said would end abruptly next Tuesday when a market panic wipes out 90 percent of the world's wealth.


"I realize things look a little dodgy right now, but this is no time for people to lose their cool," said U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. "God knows there will be plenty of time for that come Tuesday, when everything you've worked for vanishes in a matter of seconds."

On Wall Street, meanwhile, analysts were generally upbeat. After several strong years, the market was due for a "healthy correction," said Merrill Lynch analyst Pamela Green, adding that the U.S. economy looks set to rebound by the fourth quarter, "unless next Tuesday comes first, which I'm afraid it will."

"While you must always be vigilant in market conditions such as we see today, we advise buying on dips and looking for value plays — stocks trading below their traditional book values — which we think stand a very good chance of moving upward until Tuesday, when everything goes to shit," Green wrote in a research note to investors today. "For the risk-averse, we particularly like defensive plays, such as aerospace and health care, which we believe will hold up well prior to collapsing entirely at 10:42 a.m. Eastern Standard Time."

Unlike other life experiences, such as retirement, there is no effective way to plan for a genuine market panic, said White House chief economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey. However, he added, people can be proactive once the panic does hit. Among his suggestions:

¤ Eat your young. "It seems barbaric, but trust me, if you don't do it, someone else will, and you'll end up kicking yourself."

¤ If you live in Manhattan and hear somebody sing "It's Rainin' Men," don't hum along. Jump out of the way.

¤ Diversify your portfolio. Always sound advice, no matter the economic climate.

¤ Set aside 10 percent of your pre-tax income for firearms.

¤ Will your online broker be there in a market panic? Maybe it's time you switched to a Schwab One account. (paid advertisement)

RECOMMEND
THIS PAGE
Copyright © 2001, SatireWire.

Back to Top





tedw (04/10/01; 07:16:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51666)
Day 10
http://www.usagold.com
Boycott the Red Chinese B*****ds

Belgian (04/10/01; 06:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51665)
POO = UP and POG = DOWN ????
S.Saville (GE) has done some "staring" at 30 yrs Dollar-Index, as well. Have a peep at his chart, intuition and interpretation. Color the chart's background with a red color of 90 TRILLION Global DEBT !
Note, that the '85 ATH was build with a 5-impulse Elliott Wave-pattern. Idem for the '95-'01 pattern !
ABC-down pattern from ATH '85 :
- A : down '85 to '95
- B : up '95 to 01 (?) - not completed ?
- C : down ? - start is confirmed when 100/90 zone is pierced.

How can we possibly explain the divergent behaviour of POO and POG ?
OPEC is control of the Price as never before. They are managing the POO at their opportunistic goodwill.
There are no disturbing elements in play who could prevent them from setting their price-target(s). Example : Schroder (Germany) has some friendly reunion with (German-speaking) Putin about, Russia's debts to Germany. Schroder can't trade Russian oil or gas as debt-repayment. POO not disturbed. Kazakhstan oilfields still in progress. POO not (yet) disturbed. Saddam oil-overhang and world growth slow down...don't disturb POO. No explicit dollar weakness and therefore not a reason for a sustained strong POO.
Can we conclude that OPEC is to revalue its underground oil-reserves with a progressing price in function of keeping consumption at normal level, adjusted to economic activity ?

But, where and how does this relate to POG ? Is oil not interested anymore in its blood-brother "gold" ? Is manipulated POG left for what it is ? Is it Rothshield, balancing oil to pog ? Because oil/up and pog/down is a relationship, anyway . Is the inverse oil/pog relation, the ultimate evidence that Gold is the master in disguise for the oncomming systemic collapse ? And can oil as a worldcommodity, adapt and anticipate, freely ? Why has POO so suddenly decoupled from a 5 year dollar-rise, with an economic slow-down on top of it ? Is the Israel/Palestinian
pseudo-war, an oil accomplice ? Is Bush using his father's tactics of deliberately building on "TENSIONS" (Taiwanesque)to justify the SM debacle that will occur during his coming 4 years ?

The least we can say is that *inter-relations* of currencies/oil/gold/economy...are deviating from the good old reciproques.
Bush administration foresees recovery....*translation :
the coming disastre was (is) not my fault ! Keep on carry-trading the Euro/Dollar ! W'll adjust all simultaniously our interest rates to the japanse zero level...or something like that.

Footnote : Fibonacci retracement of declining dollar-index
'85-'95 = 140 - 80 = 60x0,618(62%)=37 + 80 = target of 117 !

Peter Asher (04/10/01; 06:09:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51664)
Mr G

Well, maybe they are howling and psycho/intimidating enough betting pool contributors to make a difference; the overnights are up sharply.

I wonder if this is a response to the possibility of collapsed trade with China being bullish for US stocks.


Seeker of the Grail (04/10/01; 05:23:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51663)
@ Rockgrabber, @ Simply ME
Dear Simply Me,
Sorry about the wrong gender distinction on my part. I'm from Canada. I don't believe everything I hear on the radio. Spin doctors are in all media.

Sir Rockgrabber,
Conveying the message is more important than spelling to me. But, If you wish, because it bothers you, type your post in Word Perfect or some word processer, do a spell check, then cut and paste your post to the posting area of USA GOLD "new post". BTW my spelling is probbably worse than yours.(:-))

May your chalice overflow,
SOTG


Rockgrabber (04/10/01; 03:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51662)
Sorry, I will go back to school.
I am sorry for my spelling and everything before you go on and read my posts. I never did pay much attention in school (and now I am glad for my insticts). But I do wish I would have learned my grammer and spelling, but I just did not. Please do put up with it. It does not make me less perceptive. It just makes it harder for me to share my thoughts. Sorry if it offends you, stupidity offends me as well.

Rockgrabber (04/10/01; 03:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51661)
Inflationary Rescession
This is not a good cycle. As we are loosing jobs, and personal equity positions are declining, prices are rising. People are not going to like this. The dollar will have to loose its reserve currency status just for everyone to suddenly be holding enough dollars to pay their bills. Hyper Inflation.

Rockgrabber (04/10/01; 03:19:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 51660)
Interesting stuff all over!!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?=/chronicle/archive/2001/04/08/MN118410.DTL
First may I share this.

California Energy Crisis stuff (great stuff good Ol mr. Gray Davis wanted to tell the people this before this happened. "To utilities and the financial community, let me say this: I reject the irresponsible notion that we can afford to allow our major utilities to go bankrupt, he said. "Our fate is tied to their fate." And then he says this, " Bankruptcy would mean that Californians would be subject to electricity blackouts. Public safety would be jepordized Businesses would close. Jobs would be lost. And our economy would suffer a devestating blow."

Right on!! Super our fate is teid to theirs and they have and our declaring bankruptcy!! Amd consummer confidence say what this month? Is this just a fact to show how stupid we are as people?

Rockgrabber (04/10/01; 02:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 51659)
US consumers confident and out of reality
Consumer confidence is holding up now?? Does everyone want to spend their money before they loose their jobs? Does everyone want to buy a new dil@O for themselfes before they cant buy the electricity? They are really looking to ram themselfes. OK I am off now to do some research. I will post interesting findings.

Simply Me (04/10/01; 02:23:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 51658)
(No Subject)
Yes, I know Mao is dead.

Simply Me (04/10/01; 02:20:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51657)
@Seeker of the Grail
The news was from radio, WWTN-FM Nashville, TN, to be specific. TV/Newspapers are too left wing. Most internet news takes too long to search and read.

Also heard several families of Chinese nationals residing in Hong Kong have reported their loved ones missing after they went in to mainland China to visit friends or other family members. The missing are professors, engineers ...educated types.

Where are you in the world? I have nothing against individual people....just Communist governments. After all, the Chinese people weren't given a choice after they got rid of the Emporer. Don't you think they'd enjoy voting out the government "bums" they don't like? Like this one....
"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Mao Tse Tung

We will watch gold rise together, yes?
simply (closer to Granny than Sir)

Strad Master (04/10/01; 01:34:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51656)
Al Fulchino, Peter Asher, & Mr.Gresham
AL: Thanks so much for the link. It looks fascinating! I can't wait to read it.

PETER & MR GRESHAM - Thanks for the warm welcome in response to a mere posting of mine. I am always lurking here, but I don't always have something to contribute regarding gold. I'm still just sitting on my little pile of gold coins awaiting it's long-promised trip into the stratosphere. There is a lot I could post regarding the China thing but that may be too far afield from the topic at hand. I do think that some of the postings that have shown up here of late are pretty wrong-headed. Sadly, people forget that the regime in China is responsible for more murder, torture, imprisonment, and general suffering than almost any other in history (excepting, perhaps, Stalinist Russia). To equate anything that the US does with the evil wrought by the scummy totalitarians in China is not only preposterous but frightening.

As to the little Strads - all are well (except for a broken finger one sustained last Friday). The newest one is due May 18 and, as I've promised before, I'll be sure to post news of her arrival as soon as posssible. That's one off-topic posting that MK will definitely permit.(:-))))

Mr Gresham (04/10/01; 00:18:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51655)
Peter, EagleOne, Strad, Al
Peter -- yes, it was gone then. But today's good news: one of my clients - single mom with two boys -- actually did rescue her inheritance (only savings) out of a stock broker's clutches (boy did they howl, and psychoanalyze/intimidate her right on the spot, but she did stick to it) on my recommendation last week after the rally.

I think I've said it before: I've studied CULT GROUPS. We could call them all "Stockies"? They sure fit the profile. So now I'm a cult deprogrammer?

EagleOne -- thanks for the Onion link. I keep forgetting to go get refreshed there.

Strad -- good to see you here again. And how's the little fiddle?

Al -- Your passion and integrity are your strengths. I'm glad to see you posting here again, and I didn't read those posts today in depth -- no time -- but are you really staying with the spirit of the message you want to be about here? (I guess I count on you for that special "N.H. something" my Mom had that I don't get from anyone out here in the West very much -- danged if I know what it is, but I'm always impressed when I hear your best thoughts!)



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