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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/10/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Mr Gresham (02/10/01; 23:48:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 47964)
Credit Derivatives: Economist
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=499812
Lots of confusion ahead.

justamereBear (02/10/01; 22:19:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 47963)
Lady Leigh 47956

I am told there is a saying that goes approximately; A woman should be a lady in the drawing room, a cook in the kitchen, and a slut in the bedroom. In my opinion, this quotation comes up a bit short, particularly when the occasion calls for an expression relating to sex, travel, and death.

You are far to gentile.

j'Bear



Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (2/10/2001; 19:33:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 47962)
totalamateur,......I read your posts....


and you really need to get some help.




Mr Gresham (2/10/2001; 18:58:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 47961)
Good one from Bill Gross
http://www.pimco.com/bonds_commentary_investmentoutlook_recent_index.htm
Boomers need to save. Real savings. Ain't gonna be stocks. (At the end):Might not even be bonds. What's it gonna be? (Really leaves it pointing to our conclusion: basic real resources will be the only "sexy" investments for a decade or so.)

At least look at the charts -- first, from Robert Schiller's book. Second, on demographics & dividends.

Mr Gresham (2/10/2001; 18:46:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 47960)
Megatron
Well, I've always liked the idea of cycles, was an early subscriber to a bulletin about cycles research a couple decades ago, sorry (?) I've missed out on Prechter, but fortunately for me my gold interest started up for y2k, so I bought in mostly around $300.

A cycle may be the observable result of humans acting out the combination of their psychology and available cash, but it still takes somebody making the buy/sell decision each time a price is nudged up or down. The cycle doesn't CAUSE people's behavior, but it may correlate well, and remind us to watch for patterns and reversals. (Aren't we at about Kondratieff+10?)

A market can be beaten down to its capitulation (reversal) point regardless of whether the price has yet reached a line drawn touching the tops of bottoms of other price swings. If there is no one left who wants to sell (or in the manipulation or dollar dethronement scenario -- if the downward game has been played to its limit), then the base is in.

I've always thought it was funny that people could draw TA charts of market indices, and hope to profit from them, when those indices were the mathematical (and imprecise) composites of individual stocks (or commodities) whose individual charts might be predicting something quite different. Well, which is it?

And should the price be inflation-adjusted? Or logarithmic?(And, if the chart is of a CPI-included price, should the inflation adjustment itself be adjusted to exclude the item in question?)

Prechter's writings, words, interviews -- I love the coherence and evident wisdom. I just don't know about TA/EW/cycles except as part of making your overall judgment.

Prechter couldn't foresee a mania ahead from his charts. Maybe he can't foresee a dollar meltdown?

Back to Blackjack: You increase your bets when the deck is fat. Ah, but learning to do the count...

Topaz (2/10/2001; 18:27:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 47959)
What if?
Yep, I know!! here we go again, another "guess".
If we construct a minds-eye image of the bank run(s) circa 1930 (when Gold WAS money), The practice was to adorn the Bank counters with Bullion in an attempt to allay the conserns of customers who were intent on withdrawing their money.
In the here and now, as JMB reports, GS are calling for delivery at Comex at what seems a crucial time for the "industry".
Au at such a low $ price and northern hemisphere Spring in the air all point to a HUGE physical off-take this season and I'm wondering if Comex eligible stocks are in fact ALL that's left available.

megatron (2/10/2001; 17:03:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 47958)
Mr Gresham
Prechter's timeline is actually still right on course. If you follow the general outlook he called for a 1st stage blow-off in 98. Then the big drop in 2002/3 at the latest.
He makes an excellent case for the Kondratief numbers which have lined up so far. Out of all the crackpot blabber about the economy/gold out there, his scenario is highly rational.
Unfortunately for us gold will go to <$200 thus collapsing the world monetary structure. Looks plausible.

Mr Gresham (2/10/2001; 16:59:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 47957)
ouch
Why do my eyes hurt when I see all caps?

Delete, delete, delete.

Leigh (2/10/2001; 16:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47956)
totalamateur
Isn't this the FIFTH time now you've posted that sermon about the Green Pig?


totalamateur (2/10/2001; 16:46:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 47955)
And Who was the First to talk about its Replacement?
"EUROUNITS!" --The New International Money

--A EURO-UNIT BILL?

LAST NIGHT I WAS THINKING THAT THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE A BIG STEP toward the development of a general European currency. It will almost amount to a new currency. That's something that they have hassled a long long time about.

THEY'VE ALWAYS SAID THEY HAVE TO DEVELOP A COMMON EUROPEAN CURRENCY before they can have real European unity, a real united Europe. That is the first most logical step and the one to come before any kind of political unity. They've got economic unity already in the Common Market, now they need a common currency.

THEY'VE BEEN DRAGGING THEIR FEET AND ARGUING ABOUT IT FOR YEARS. The Common Market's been in existence virtually since World War 2. But they've been arguing about how its currency is to be set up ever since.

NOW THEY ARE BEING FORCED TO DEVELOP A EUROPEAN CURRENCY BECAUSE OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR. As long as it was still easy to use dollars for the common medium of exchange, they just drifted along. But now they're literally being forced to desert the dollar and form their own basic currency. And this is what the Euro Unit's going to do.

IT'S GOING TO FORCE EUROPE TO DEVELOP MORE THAN JUST THE TERM MERELY MEASURING IT IN UNITS. They're going to have to have something to show for those units, which means they're going to have to produce a common European currency, some kind of paper money, because it's a basket of several European currencies, plus 1/3 gold, plus 1/3 dollars.

THIS WHOLE THING IS SLOWLY MOVING TO A HEAD. That's the next step. They'll be forced to use this new system & new measuring unit called the ECU, the European Currency Unit. And that's going to force them to actually put it on paper too, actual money.

IT WILL BE THE NEW EUROPEAN MONEY, A EUROPE-WIDE CURRENCY. --No more money exchanging! I bet it will save the banks and the countries billions to cut out all that exchange business!

OF COURSE SOME PEOPLE ARE GOING TO LOSE A LITTLE MONEY, like the greedy money-changers, because there won't be any more money changing, except for countries outside of EMS. It's going to be very practical and every feasible and I believe will really work.

I WAS SORT OF WONDERING WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO CALL THEM. Certainly they're not going to call them ECUs or European Currency Units. When you're in a hurry to ask somebody for some money you don't say, "Kindly give me so many European Currency Units." When you want a dollar you don't say, "Dad, please give me one United States Dollar Treasury Certificate."

I HAD NEVER THOUGHT OF THIS TERM BEFORE. It had never ever come to my mind at all, even as many times as I've read up on this. I was just thinking,

"THEY'VE GOT TO HAVE SOME KIND OF A NAME FOR IT SIMPLER THAN THAT!"--And just like a voice inside of my head, just as clear as I ever heard any of those revelations, just like somebody was answering me, just as plain as day:

"EUROUNITS!'--Euro Units!" Now I really don't think it was my mind at all, because it's just the way I hear those other things--a voice said: "Euro Units"!

I THOUGHT, "WELL THAT'S GOOD, EURO UNITS--SHORT, EASY TO SAY, EURO UNITS!" You're not going to stop and say the big long name, European Currency Units. You might say ECUs, but just as clear as a bell inside my head, "Euro Units!" I thought:

"WOW! EURO UNITS! SO IT'S GOING TO BECOME THAT COMMON! They are actually going to have a European medium of exchange, money! They're going to have a paper, currency called Euro Units." It may be spelled out on the currency, but that's what people are going to call it.

I NEVER THOUGHT OF THAT BEFORE! I was just wondering what they're going to call it and it came to me as clear as anything!

LATER I WAS ASKING THE LORD, "WHY DID YOU GIVE ME AN ANSWER SO EASY ON SOMETHING SO SEEMINGLY INSIGNIFICANT and unimportant to us, when a lot of times I don't get any answer for something I really want to know!" And it came to me, "It is important!"

IF EUROPE IS GOING TO AGREE ON THE UNIT AND INSTITUTE THE BASKET and develop this European Currency Unit, they are also going to have to start printing that in actual currency, in actual bills, coins and so on. -And that's going to take a little time!

SO IF THERE IS GOING TO BE TIME ENOUGH FOR EUROPE TO REALLY BEGIN TO USE ITS OWN CURRENCY and have printed and minted money, it must mean that we've got a little bit more time before the complete economic collapse of Western Europe or the war or whatever!

IN OTHER WORDS, MAYBE WE'VE GOT AT LEAST A YEAR OR TWO BEFORE ANY MAJOR DISASTER, COLLAPSE OR WAR! They could hardly do it much faster than that, as slow as the wheels of government move and as slow as these nations are to agree with each other.

I DON'T KNOW WHETHER I CAN SAY THAT MUCH FOR THE MIDEAST! They've sort of softened things up in the Mideast now, but they're just putting off the final settlement. They're just postponing the day of reckoning!

THIS AGREEMENT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND EGYPT IS JUST PUTTING OFF THE DAY OF RECKONING! Like the President of Iraq flat out said, "We are not going to allow those Jews to stay there! That is our country, it belongs to the Palestinians, and we're going to run 'em out! Sooner or later we're going to run them out! Right now we haven't got the capability to do it, but just give us another ten years & we'll be ready!"--I don't think it's going to take that long really, but it might.

THE NEXT QUESTION THAT CAME TO ME WAS, "WHAT ABOUT THIS CREDIT SYSTEM THE ANTICHRIST GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO DEVELOP?" We know they're already working on it, they've already got this huge computer. It takes three floors of one building in Brussels, and they already call it the Beast! (See Rev.13!)

THEY'RE ALREADY WORKING ON THE IDEA OF AN ELECTRONIC CREDIT SYSTEM to replace completely the use of money, but that would be a slow changeover too. They've got to give everybody a number and they've got to get the system all set up and worked out, it all takes time. And I thought,

"WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE EURO UNITS when that computer takes over?" And it came just as clear as anything, "It's going to be based on the Euro Units." Its credit is going to be measured in Euro Units! (They say each Unit's going to be worth about $1.37.)

THEY'VE GOT TO HAVE SOME KIND OF UNIT TO MEASURE IT. They've got to call it something. They've got to have some standard, some unit. It's got to be done in figures on these computers, and these figures have got to represent something. You can't just call them numbers!

THE ELECTRONIC CREDIT SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE BASED ON EURO UNITS, it's going to be measured in Euro Units. They'll be the next step toward it, because this is simplifying the whole monetary system: In other words, organizing it down to specifics.

THE BIGGEST OBSTACLE TO THE WORLD CREDIT SYSTEM HAS BEEN THE DIFFERENCES IN CURRENCIES. They have got to develop a single unit to base their electronic credit system on, and the Euro Unit is the beginning. These things take time to develop and work out the snags and get the countries to agree and the banks organized and change over to the different system.

DO YOU KNOW HOW LONG IT TOOK BRITAIN TO CHANGE OVER to the new pound with the hundred pennies? They worked on teaching the people and had programs and literature on it for two or three years before they actually instituted it, but there were still people who were confused! They just couldn't think in the new currency, they just couldn't figure it out. They couldn't change over to thinking that way.

YOU KNOW HOW IT'S A BIT DIFFICULT TO CHANGE YOUR THINKING FROM ONE CURRENCY TO THE OTHER WHEN TRAVELLING. We always have to have something to relate it to to get an idea of the values and so on. So it takes time to develop those things.

IT'S GOING TO TAKE TIME FOR THEM TO FINALLY AGREE ON THIS BASKET and develop the unit of exchange that they're going to use. Then they're bound to have to go to some kind of actual representation of those units in the way of paper and minted money, and that will take time. It'll take time for people to get used to using them and to get them into use and in practice.

SO IF THERE'S GOING TO BE SUCH A THING, IT'S GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME. Maybe Europe's going to have a few more months or years left after all! It looked pretty bad there for a while.

EVEN THE PEACE TREATY BETWEEN ISRAEL AND EGYPT HASN'T BEEN SETTLED YET. But apparently Carter has really beaten them over the head. I guess you heard the latest,

BEGIN'S BEEN TRYING TO BLACKMAIL THE U.S. He wanted to get about 30 billion dollars worth of credit for signing the peace treaty. Can you imagine? Talk about hard bargainers, those Jews are hard bargainers! But the U.S. is putting so much pressure on, it looks like they may just drive it through.

IF THE JEWS GET ENOUGH OUT OF IT, THEY'LL PROBABLY AGREE TO IT. They're only returning one little piece of land, the Sinai Desert, and they're not giving back any of the most valuable places, nothing but the Sinai! And it's been like trying to get blood out of a turnip to get that out of them, and boy, they're making the U.S. pay a price for it!

IT LOOKS LIKE THEY MIGHT DRIVE IT THROUGH, WHICH MEANS THAT EGYPT WILL HAVE LITERALLY DESERTED THE ARAB CAMP and split the Arabs completely apart, just as the Rejectionist Arabs said. But there are not enough left to try to attack Israel or carry on any kind of war with Israel with any hopes of winning.--Certainly not Syria, nor even Saudi Arabia with all its planes and whatnot. Surely not Jordan, Lebanon nor Iraq, not even all of them together are ready yet. Without Egypt, the most populous and most powerful of all the Arab countries, they can't do it.

SO CAMP DAVID DID NOT SETTLE THE QUESTION AT ALL, IT HAS JUST POSTPONED THE DAY OF DOOM, that's all. They just put it a little further away, because it split the Arabs. It will take quite a while and quite a provocation, and the world will have to be just ripe for it for Russia to pitch in and help them grab it!

RUSSIA IS DOING EXACTLY WHAT MARX TOLD THE COMMUNISTS TO DO:--Just give them time, and capitalism will crumble of its own weight, which is a lot cheaper and easier than fighting wars!

THEY'RE JUST BIDING THEIR TIME, AND THE U.S. IS GETTING WEAKER EVERY DAY--weaker economically, weaker militarily, weaker politically, etc. And all Russia has to do is sit there and wait while America gets less powerful and weaker all the time--until the time cones when there's sufficient world opinion on Russia's side and she's had sufficient excuse or provocation, then she'll figure it's time to strike. It's not by any means over yet!

AND PROBABLY, AS WE'VE ALWAYS SAID, THE CRUNCH WILL COME OVER OIL. Egypt has no oil, and that's one way the Arab States who are left have power to punish the U.S. and Israel, with oil.

THE FIRST STEP IS GOING TO BE WHEN THE ARABS DESERT THE DOLLAR FOR THE EURO UNITS! If the OPEC States decide to dump the dollar and go to the Euro Unit in pricing their oil, that could cause the collapse of the dollar for sure!

DOLLARS WOULD NO LONGER BE GOOD FOR BUYING ARAB OIL! The U.S. would really be in a scramble to try to collect Euro Units to buy oil, and that would cause one hell of an oil shortage in the U.S.!

NOW THAT THE U.S. HAS GOT THIS ONE BIG PROBLEM OFF THEIR HANDS, ISRAEL AND EGYPT, and they got that war postponed a few more years, maybe five, they hope, now they're going to have to go to work on their biggest problem, inflation.--Which they do not blame on their own greediness, selfishness, waste or anything else but the Arabs!

YOU READ ALMOST ANY AMERICAN NEWS MEDIA AND THEY ALL BLAME INFLATION ON THE PRICE OF OIL! They say, "It wasn't our fault! It was because the Arabs raised the oil!" They come out with that all the time, "Primarily it was the increase in the price of oil that caused the biggest problem."

NO COUNTRY EVER BLAMES ITS PROBLEMS ON ITSELF. IT ALWAYS TRIES TO BLAME IT ON ITS ENEMIES, somebody outside. "It's not because we're greedy or selfish or wasteful or live too high or burn too much gasoline or drive too big cars," say the Americans.

"IT'S THOSE AWFUL ARABS WHO RAISED THE PRICE OF OIL, or we would have been fine!"--And that's going to be played up and played up until the people are whipped into a war frenzy and willing to take a chance on a coup or military grab!

I READ IN ONE PAPER HOW THEY ALREADY HAVE CONTINGENCY PLANS ON HOW TO GRAB OFF ONE OF THE LEADING OIL NATIONS.--And do you know which one would be the most likely? Where would they be most likely to have a little bit more sympathetic world opinion than any other oil nation? (Tim: Libya?)--Yes! Because the Jews hate Godahfi's guts!

… If the pinch gets tight enough and the squeeze gets bad enough, they'll figure they're justified in grabbing off one of these rascals that's been a thorn in their flesh! This Camp David Accord is a step in that direction.

THEY SAY THAT EGYPT'S ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE ITS FORCES FROM SINAI TO THE LIBYAN BORDER! Of course the U.S. would use Egypt, if not its own forces. They've probably already got a deal, "You grab Libya and we'll leave you Arabs alone. Just let us have the oil!"

THESE PLOTTERS AND CONSPIRATORS HAVEN'T CHANGED ANY SINCE ANCIENT HISTORY. The U.S. has proven itself willing to fight just as dirty and to hit below the belt just as much as any other power that ever existed, in fact even worse!

SO, THE SWITCH TO THE EURO UNIT WILL REALLY PUT THE PRESSURE ON THE U.S. It's going to put the pressure on the U.S. even if OPEC doesn't switch to it, because Europe is going to be much stronger and more united. Already its currencies are much stronger, and the Euro Unit will be stronger than that! So the dollars are really going to go down!

THEY'RE GOING TO KEEP ONE-THIRD DOLLARS IN THE BASKET TO TRY TO HELP THE DOLLAR RETAIN SOME VALUE because Europe's got so many.--Otherwise they probably would have kicked it out completely! But it will probably only slow down the complete collapse. Otherwise I think the dollar would just absolutely fall almost flat on its face!

THE DOLLARS WILL STILL BE OF SOME VALUE AS LONG AS YOU HAVE TO HAVE DOLLARS TO BUY U.S. PRODUCTS. But the list of those products is getting shorter every day, because you can get better and cheaper products from Japan and from Germany, etc.

THE JAPANESE AND THE GERMAN'S HAVE LEARNED HOW TO MAKE ANYTHING THE AMERICANS CAN MAKE, and how to make it cheaper and better! They couldn't lick the U.S. militarily, but now they're literally licking the U.S. economically!

SO THE U.S. DOLLAR IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPORTANT ANYMORE. It's not as great a necessity as it was after World War 2 when you couldn't do anything without U.S. dollars. Now they're getting to be almost a liability instead of an asset! If Europe and then OPEC go to Euro Units, there will be less and less need for dollars all the time, and they'll nosedive!

THE ONLY DOLLARS NEEDED WILL BE TO BUY A FEW AMERICAN PRODUCTS that these other countries have not yet learned how to produce. There are a few very highly super-secret weapons and a few super-duper computers, and believe it or not, America produces a tremendous amount of wheat. So it may turn out that about the only thing America's got left to sell is a few arms, computers and wheat, which isn't going to be an awful lot. So, the sum and substance of the whole thing is this:

THIS WHOLE THING IS PAVING THE WAY TOWARD THE END! But it's a fairly slow paving job, It's going to take a little time to lay that paving and build that road, but it's being built!

THE NEW EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM AND THE EURO UNITS ARE ALL PAVING THE WAY. And if OPEC goes to Euro Units, then the U.S. and its dollars will continue to decline and they're going to have more problems!

IF THE U.S. GETS INTO AN OIL BIND, THAT'S GOING TO BRING COLOSSAL PROBLEMS and unemployment! And if enough Americans get unemployed and go without gasoline or without heat and a few other things they consider necessities, they are going to get mad!

THEY'RE GOING TO BLAME IT ALL ON THE ARABS and on OPEC and so on, and be very greatly tempted, since all else has failed, to use some force! And the most likely thing they would do is to use Egypt to grab off Libya! In cases like this they love a little provocation on the border to give them an excuse to march in! It would be almost the simplest thing in the world for Egypt!

THERE'RE ONLY A FEW SMALL ARAB STATES THAT WOULD SIDE AGAINST EGYPT WITH LIBYA. But most of the rest are pro-U.S. or couldn't care less and may figure it's good riddance of a thorn in their consciences--Godahfi!

ABOUT THE ONLY FRIENDS LIBYA'S REALLY GOT ARE IRAQ, SYRIA, KUWAIT AND S. YEMEN, the most radical, pro-Communist States, and they're not big enough to do anything about it--not when you consider that he has a little country of only two million people and Egypt has ten million! He's only got about 40 thousand men under arms, whereas Egypt has nearly half-a-million men well-armed with big armaments, planes, guns, tanks, everything!

TAKING LIBYA WOULD BE LIKE SQUASHING A LITTLE BUG, WITH WHAT EGYPT HAS GOT!--Unless Russia would step in and intervene! That's the question! Of course it's all going to lead to that eventually.

THE THING THAT CAME TO ME IS IT'S GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME. We have a little more time. I was asking the Lord, "Why did You show me such a seemingly infinitesimal insignificant unimportant little thing like Euro Units?" Well, it may turn out to be pretty important!

IT IS A STEP, FIRST OF ALL, TOWARD A COMMON EUROPEAN CURRENCY. Then the Euro Units are a step toward world currency, and finally a step toward the computer credit system.--All of this preparing the world economically for one world government.--The Beast!

THEN BECAUSE OIL IS MORE VALUABLE THAN MONEY, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SOLVE THE OIL PROBLEM somehow. Since the U.S. can't rake enough Euro Units together to buy enough oil to meet its greedy needs, it's probably going to try to grab some oil, and the most likely oil country it will try to grab is Libya!

SO EVERYTHING'S GOING THAT DIRECTION, speedily in some ways, but in other ways a little slower. If this Euro Unit is going to have time to be developed and used, then that's going to take some time, which means Europe may have a few more years.

WELL, I THOUGHT IT WAS INTERESTING--ONE LITTLE THING LIKE THAT CAN TRIGGER A LOT OF THINGS! I know I didn't think that up, I got it from a voice inside my head, "Euro Units!" I'd never even thought of it before!

I DON'T KNOW, IT MAY NOT COME TRUE. But even if it doesn't, it was a good idea!--Ha! (Maria: It always comes true!) Well, sometimes it doesn't look like it, and sometimes it takes awhile, but it's happening!

I PREDICTED THE COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR AT LEAST TEN YEARS AGO, and finally it's collapsed fast enough for people to believe it! Americans have to be practically slapped in the face with it before they'll believe anything detrimental or pessimistic about their country!

AMERICANS JUST CAN'T BELIEVE THERE WON'T ALWAYS BE AN AMERICA! Probably one of these days there will be a United States of Soviet Socialist Republics!--A USSSR! Of course that will only come after the next war!

I BELIEVE THERE'S DEFINITELY GOING TO BE A WAR, because you and I know the U.S., and we know that they're just crazy enough that if they get mad enough over that oil and think that the rest of the world's shutting them out, they'll fight for it!--Or Israel!

VIOLENCE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE U.S. SOLUTION TO EVERY PROBLEM! War has always been their solution. Only this time I believe it will be their last one, because I believe they're going to lose it!

SO TO ENCOURAGE YOU, MAYBE THE TOTAL COLLAPSE OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM AND THE WAR IS STILL A LITTLE BIT AWAY. It's going to take a little more time to work up to it, or down to it. Just like the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty is going to postpone the day of reckoning & the war in the Mideast, so the Euro Unit is going to postpone the day of reckoning for the monetary system and it's collapse!

THE EURO UNIT IS GOING TO BE ONE WAY EUROPE IS GOING TO SAVE ITS SKIN ECONOMICALLY TEMPORARILY.--Particularly the less they cling to the U.S.' skirts and stand on their own eighteen feet! Because on their own they're doing pretty well without the U.S. to drag them down!--It's funny how positions switch:

IN THE BEGINNING THE U.S. WAS THE ONE WHO ENCOURAGED EUROPE TOO UNITE, after World War 2, to make a strong united Europe to oppose Russia. Now the U.S. is backing down and backing out of it and trying to fight it!

NOW EUROPE IS GETTING SO STRONG AND SO UNITED IT'S ABLE TO THUMB ITS NOSE AT THE U.S., and this hurts the U.S. economically. Europe is getting independent and self-sufficient, and doesn't need the U.S. as much as it did before.

AND GUESS WHO IS ENCOURAGING THE STRONGER UNITED EUROPE NOW?--RUSSIA! She's completely switched her position and playing a totally different tune now, because she sees that by encouraging Europe to unite and get stronger, it's going to further weaken America more and more!--(After all, the Russians are Europeans!)

A UNITED EUROPE IS MAKING FOR A STRONGER RUSSIA, whereas a united Europe used to make for a stronger America. Now it's making for a stronger world socialism and weaker capitalism and a weaker U.S. So it's all on the way, and it's going to pave that road slowly block by block right to the End!

(My comment: You will probably agree with me that the most amazing fact here is that this was written 7 November 1978 by author and prophet Father David. "Surely the Lord God will do nothing, but He revealeth His secrets unto His servants the prophets." Amos 3:7. After all, who talked about Euros at that time?)

Have a peaceful weekend!


totalamateur (2/10/2001; 16:44:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 47954)
Who was the First to talk about the destruction of the US dollar?
"THE GREEN PAPER PIG"--A Dream of the Future of the Dollar!--

(Early this morning David awoke and related to me the following dream:) IT WAS SUMMER IN THE MIDEAST, and we were fleeing through this canyon or wadi where a stream flowed (I know now it was the Jordan River), towards some kind of sea or lake like the Dead Sea (which I know now it was) where we were to get on some boats to escape across to the other side. But then as a last resort, someone unleashed on us this big imaginary monster--a gigantic Green Pig--and he was huge, like a mechanical elephant or one of these mammoth monster-like parade balloons, and if you believed he existed he could destroy you! He was charging down the Jordan Valley, trampling on some people and devouring others, when I shouted at them: "He doesn't really exist! It's just in your mind! You must rebuke him and he'll go away!" So some of us turned as we were boarding the boats to leave, and just as he caught up with us I yelled again, "He doesn't exist! It's a matter of whether you believe it or not! It's only your faith in him that he exists that makes him real! Rebuke him in Jesus' name and he'll flee!"--And the minute we turned and faced him and challenged him and rebuked him in Jesus' name, he vanished just like that! (David snaps his fingers.) He was like the ultimate weapon, their last resort, to release this monstrous Green Pig!

AFTERWARD I WAS LYING HERE THINKING: "What is this funny dream! What does this strange dream mean, Lord?" I asked the Lord: "What is a green pig? That's ridiculous!" Then I thought to myself, "What is like a pig? Is it a nation? But what nation is like a pig? America? But why is he green? Does that mean he's young and new?" And then the answer came just as clear as anything: He's the American dollar!--The ultimate weapon in the Mideast is the American dollar, and if you believe in it, it will destroy you! But if you know it doesn't really exist, it vanishes! So I had told them, "It doesn't even exist! It's in your mind! It's your fear, your imagination! Resist it! Challenge it in Jesus' name!"--And, poof! It just evaporated! And that's the last I remember!

SO THE ULTIMATE WEAPON IS THE "GREENBACK" Pig!--The American dollar, or American "greenback," as they call it! Somehow they're using it against the rest of the world. It came charging down the Jordan Valley just like they'd turned him loose _________ (censored), and he came charging furiously at us, and was really trampling and devouring the stragglers, the people who were a little late in making up their minds. But when it got to where we were embarking in these boats, we just turned around and I screamed: "He doesn't even exist! Rebuke it in Jesus' name!"--And we all just turned around and resisted it in Jesus' name, and it vanished just like that!--The ultimate weapon! How about that?

WE MUST TELL THE WORLD THAT THEY MUST NOT FEAR THE AMERICAN DOLLAR! The Green pig is only a monster of the imagination! It only exists if you believe in it. If you resist it in the name of God, it evaporates and is no more! So he's very wise to put his money in gold, because the dollar is going to evaporate when the people lose faith in it, and it will be gone! The green pig gobbles everybody up that believes in it, and tramples everybody in the mud that thinks it exists! But for those who know it's just a monster of imagination, it vanishes!--It's nothing! The Green Pig is the American dollar!

I WAS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE ALL THIS WAS, and it came to me that the place where I saw the decision made to release the Green Pig was _____ (censored), and the small canyon with the river in the bottom was the Jordan! It had small low bluffs on both sides--it was the Jordan Valley, the Jordan canyon, and we were fleeing down from _____ (censored) to the Dead Sea where we were embarking on boats.--And it came to me we must have been going to Petra, fleeing to Petra, the world-famed Rock City in Jordan! But the decision to unleash the Green Pig, the ultimate weapon, was made at _____ (censored)!

SOMEONE IS MANIPULATING THE DOLLAR and using it as a weapon--the Green Pig--to try to destroy their enemies. Someone is behind the monetary crisis and they are using it to their own advantage to somehow try to destroy their enemies.--And if you believe in it, it will destroy you, but if you refuse to believe that it even exists, it completely evaporates and vanishes! It has no power over you at all. It is a monster of imagination! It only terrifies those who believe that it exists. It is the moneymakers' monster, and the Green Pig is just a tool in their hands.

AMERICA ITSELF IS LIKE A GREEN PIG, and the Green Pig is like America--huge and powerful and young and green and greedy, gluttonous, wasteful, selfish! But it only exists if you believe it exists, like its dollar, the "greenback," or the American dollar. It's like this Green Pig is the god of America, it is America's idol that they worship. It is not even as good as the golden calf, because it doesn't even exist! It is all in the imagination. But they worship it and they created it, and the moneymakers helped them to create it. But it is they that tell it which way to go. It is they who unleash it against their enemies, and it is they who control it, and they either harness it and support it, or they unleash it and send it charging against their enemies to devour them!

BUT IF YOU HAVE NO FAITH IN IT, and you take no stock in it, you don't believe in it, you don't worship it, and you rebuke it in the name of God, it just vanishes and evaporates! It has no power at all over you unless you're one of its worshippers. The moneymakers are its high priests and its priesthood, and it was created in their temples and they control it and they manipulate it as they will to their own advantage against their enemies.

SO YOU AND ALL THE WORLD MUST BEWARE OF THE DOLLAR! It is a moneymaker's creation--a Green Pig! It'll devour you and trample you to death in the mud and the mire if you believe in it and put your faith in it, if you trust in it! Because, whichever way it moves, it moves at their behest, at their direction, because they created it and they control it. But it only exists for those that believe in it. If you take no stock in it and have no faith in it and don't believe in it and you reject it, and if you refuse to accept it and you resist it because you know it doesn't exist, except according to men's faith in it and their imagination, if you challenge it in the name of God, it just goes pooof!--Like puff, the Magic Dragon! It totally evaporates! It has no power over you whatsoever if you don't believe in it. But those who believe in it will be destroyed by it!--It was their creation, their monster, and it is the figment of their imagination, but they use it to their own advantage. But if you'll reject it and refuse to believe in it, and you rebuke it in God's name, it vanishes and cannot even touch you!

THEY MUST NOT PUT THEIR FAITH IN THE DOLLAR. THEY MUST REBUKE THE GREEN PIG and he will vanish for he doesn't really exist except in the minds of men who accept him. You get all the words of David? You receive all the words of your Father? You must tell them to the people! "Beware of the Green Pig which the moneymakers have unleashed upon the world!" The money crisis, the dollar crisis is their creation and the decision to use it as the ultimate weapon was made at _____ (censored)! (He looks at grey sweater): It looks green, and I thought it was green! Then all of a sudden I realised it wasn't green!--It was all in my imagination! Like those that clothe themselves in dollars they think are green, they think they are alive and young and growing like the green things of the earth, but they shall find that this greenness only exists in their imagination, and when exposed to the light of day, the truth of God, it turns to grey ashes, burnt out fires, dead grey ashes!

THE AMERICAN DOLLARS ARE NO LONGER GREEN AND GROWING, BUT THEY HAVE TURNED TO GREY DEAD ASHES and they only look green if you're deceived thereby, only if you think that grey is green when green has really turned to grey! The Green Pig will turn to ashes, dead grey cold ashes, when the fire of faith is gone, and it will be burnt out and destroyed when the fire of the faith of men in it is gone! When the flame of faith in it has burnt out, all the dollars will be turned to ashes and burnt up, turned to worthless ashes! Oh my God, why don't they see that! Why does God's prophet have to tell them a simple little childish story? I have to warn the world, honey, of the words God gives, His wondrous words He gives to save them from this monstrous Green Pig--the American dollar they have unleashed on the world as their ultimate weapon to try to destroy their enemies!

AMERICA'S GREEN PAPER PIG DOESN'T EVEN EXIST--IT'S ONLY IN YOUR MIND--and only if you believe in it! It's a figment of your imagination! If it's your image, if it's the image of your nation--your image-nation, your imagination, the image of your nation, and you worship it and you believe in it and you hold on to it, it will destroy you! But if you rebuke it and defy it in the name of God, it has no power over you! It totally vanishes--just evaporates! As they unleashed it at ________ (censored) and it came charging down the Jordan Valley toward us while we were escaping in these boats at the Dead Sea, it was destroying everything in its path till we turned and rebuked it and resisted it and I shouted to them, "It doesn't exist! Rebuke it! Resist it and it will flee from you!"--And we did, and Puff, the Magic Dragon vanished!--Puff, the Magic Dragon crashed!

THE WEST IS THE STRONGHOLD OF THE MAGIC DRAGON--THE DREAM PIG! I'm not afraid of the Magic Dragon! I'm not afraid of the Green Pig! But we were leaving and embarking on boats across the Sea. If their faith in the Pig is very strong, then the Pig is very strong. It really exists for those who believe it exists. For those who worship it, it not only exists but it is their god, and it rules over them and controls them and devours them and destroys them, because they worship other gods and they worship the Green Pig--the ultimate abomination, the abomination of desolation which brings desolation and abomination to all who believe in it! The Green Pig is an abomination of desolation sacrificed on the sacred altar by its moneymakers!

BUT IT IS AN ABOMINATION TO GOD--the Green Pig, the American dollar! It is a pollution!--It is pollution! It pollutes the whole world worse than any other pollution, because it pollutes the hearts and minds of men and captures their bodies and destroys their souls and devours them and gobbles them up--the Green Pig! It is a marvel and powerful and wondrous and mighty to those who believe in it!--But it is nothing, it is not even weak to those who know it doesn't even exist!--It's nothing!--It evaporates into thin air! If you resist it and rebuke it, it will flee from you and vanish!

THE GREEN PIG--THE AMERICAN DOLLAR THAT DEVOURS AND DESTROYS SO MANY! It is controlled by the moneymakers! They released it against their enemies and the world, but we will help the world to resist it, to rebuke it and defy it and know that it doesn't exist except in the minds and imaginations of money men! If you know it doesn't exist, that the Green Pig, the American dollar, is a lie, a figment of the imagination and a creation of the money men, if you rebuke it, resist it and defy it and tell it it is a liar, it'll vanish and evaporate and have absolutely no power over you whatsoever! It just goes Puff, the Magic Dragon! Puff, the Magic Dragon is a pipe dream dreamed up by the money men!

WHAT DOES THE WORD "DOLLAR" MEAN? There was no such thing as the American dollar until it was dreamed up by Washington! What does it mean? There's something strange about that word dollar! The dollar has the whole world in the doldrums! The world, who's been beating the drums to the dollar, is now in the doldrums because of its false worship of its fallen idol, which is what they deserve! For they created to themselves idols of gold and idols of silver, and now their final idol is an idol of paper--a paper tiger!--Sickening, greedy, gluttonous, Green Pig, the dollar! You see?--Now you see it, and now you don't!--Depends on whether you believe it or not. The Green Pig--the moneymakers' joke!--The American dollar! What a joke on the world by the money jerks! They are going to jerk their joke out from under them--the German joke that comes from Joachim's dale, or thalle, a gorge with a river like the Jordan Valley! The obsolete German coin or thaller is going to become the obsolete American dollar!--Joachim's dollars, joke'em!

THE GREEN PIG--THE CREATION OF THE MONEY MEN! The worshippers of the dollar have been deceived by their own priests! They are now deceived and destroyed by their own creation! The deceivers are themselves deceived by their own deception in which they believed--the Green Pig--the American dollar! It shall return upon their own heads, and it shall turn upon them and rend them and trample them underfoot because they have cast their pearls unto the swine--and the truth unto dogs!--How they travestied to create their Green Pig, not even a golden calf! The laws of God have they cast down and broken! They have not even created a golden calf this time, but only a Green Paper Pig!

THE AMERICAN DOLLAR--A GREEN PAPER PIG WHICH WILL DEVOUR AND DESTROY YOU IF YOU LET IT and believe in it and accept it, but which will vanish and evaporate into the nothing that it is if you refuse it and rebuke it and don't believe in it, don't take it, don't accept the Green Pig, refuse the Green Pig, challenge it, defy it, rebuke it! He'll not only flee from you but he'll completely vanish, because he is not! He's a figment of men's imaginations: The Green Paper Pig! Hurry, honey, we have to get these words to the waiting world! We have to hurry! Honey, you won't forget about warning the world about the Green Pig, OK?

IN THOSE DREAMS NOTHING IS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANCE. I was praying about why the Green Pig was running down the Jordan Valley and caught up with us at the Dead Sea. It lost its power when it arrived at the Dead Sea and we confronted it. It was like the Dead Sea, lowest spot on Earth, symbolises the end.--The Green Pig could go no farther or lower, and there it vanished from the earth at our rebuke! The Jordan River is a living river and it gives life and flows and waters and feeds until it gets to the Dead Sea, and there those waters, like Lot's wife, turn to salt and become dead and can no longer go anywhere or do anything. They've stagnated. They've reached the end and they no longer seem good for anything--like the dollar, the Green Paper Pig! And the pig was following the course of the Jordan, which also symbolises crisis and death till he reached his end at the Dead Sea, and that's where we destroyed it by defying it and denouncing it and it couldn't stand exposure! The minute all the people looked at it and heard that it was only in their imagination, it just vanished! The minute they heard it was just an imaginary pig, it vanished!

WHEN A CURRENCY COMES TO ITS END AND BECOMES WORTHLESS, AS IN GERMANY AFTER WORLD WAR I, only things of real value, material things of actual usefulness and necessities, become negotiable, and a system of bartering or trading of goods instead of money arises. When the currency dies, men return to the age-old system of trading physical and material necessities. So that people trade things they have and produce for things that they need, such as the farmers would trade the foodstuff they produced for the tools and manufactured items they needed, and the industrial communities or tradesmen who make things would trade them for the farmers' food and the goods that they need.

SO THAT IN GERMANY, JUST BEFORE HITLER, THE MARK HAD BECOME SO WORTHLESS that the government was printing billion-Mark notes, which were still not worth much, and each city and town and area began printing its own currency, or spurious currency, in which each government tried to inspire the faith of the people as a medium of exchange, because it was a little difficult without it. If you wanted to go to the theatre you had to take so many eggs or a hen for admission! It was not only difficult for the customers, but imagine the problems of the management in trying to find a place to store all these things! One story is told of the two women who went shopping with a whole laundry basket full of German Marks, to show you how worthless the Marks were!--And as if that wasn't bad enough, when they weren't looking, somebody dumped all the Marks out of the basket, left the Marks on the sidewalk, and ran off with the basket!

SO WHEN THE DOLLAR, WHICH HAS IN EFFECT BEEN THE WORLD'S INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY, COMES TO ITS END, WHAT IS GOING TO BE THE MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE? Gold has kept its value very well, and in fact, in relation to the dollar, it is now worth about four times as much as it was back in the thirties! In other words, the dollar is worth only about one-fourth of what it was 40 years ago! It's been dropping nearly 20 percent in value every ten years or about 2 percent a year!

BUT WHAT IS GOLD GOOD FOR NOW in actual material necessities and how valuable is it today? For many ages gold has been much sought after as a useful, but particularly as a very decorative, metal, so it became an extremely precious metal sought by the rich for their tableware and their various metallic decorative materials, etc. But today it is not sought after so much for those old-fashioned luxuries, and is not even as much in demand for things like gold watches and jewelry. But it has become increasingly in demand as a vital part of the electronic systems of many of these new scientific gadgets!

THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THE PRICE OF GOLD HAS GONE UP, because it is still very much in demand and extremely necessary for the circuitry of electronic devices. One reason that TV sets cost so much for example, or even your little transistorized radios, is because gold is used extensively in these, as it is one of the world's best conductors of electricity! Amazing isn't it, that God made gold so useful and necessary, from ancient times to the present, as well as beautiful and attractive! God has always put considerable value on gold in the Scriptures, some on silver, but mostly on gold. But He does say that there will even come a day when gold and silver will be less valuable and as common as the rocks in the streets, which may be the Millennium or thereafter because of the loss of the need of all these gadgets and scientific contraptions, as well as the loss of the need of a monetary standard, or metals for mere decoration. Nevertheless, gold has kept its value over all these centuries and really better than anything else outside of actual real estate.

ONE REASON FOR THE REAL ESTATE BOOM IS THAT WHEN PEOPLE BEGIN TO LOSE FAITH IN THEIR MONEY, currency and banking accounts, they begin exchanging their money for things of actual useful value. They can't help but see from history that the value of money is constantly going down, because these are no longer the secrets of the rich and high finance, but they are common knowledge of the general public and the man on the street. He knows that the value of his money is deteriorating every day through what is called inflation. As the prices go up, his wages never rise as fast as the prices since the owners, manipulators and managers of money are the ones who control both wages and prices. Therefore the rich always see to it that their prices rise faster than the wages of their wage slaves!

SO THE BIG AND POWERFUL LABOUR UNIONS NOW INSIST THAT TO EVERY NEW CONTRACT there be attached the proviso that their wages will automatically be raised according to the cost of living, which is known by the cost of living index.--Periodically the wages of the labourers of certain industries who have made these very wise contracts, will be raised by exactly the same percentage as the rise in the cost of living: Or in other words, according to the deflation of their money caused by the inflation in prices. So some labour has gotten pretty smart on this issue!

NEVERTHELESS, LABOUR NEVER SEEMS TO BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE COST OF LIVING no matter how hard they try. Because, if you're a manufacturing owner or manager or a money manipulator, it is much easier for you to manipulate your prices and money, most of which is simply done on paper, than it is for the poor lowly labourer to try to get a raise in his wages from the industrial managers and money manipulators who are in control of wealth and the sources of wealth and power and the sources of power and government and are usually much richer, more powerful, better educated and smarter than the poor average working man.

BUT LATELY, EVEN THE MONEY MANIPULATORS HAVE BEEN LETTING THINGS GET A LITTLE OUT OF HAND and out of their control, and they haven't seemed to quite understand why their money matters are getting in such a bad way because of the sudden fall of their god the dollar upon which they base their values and currencies and their rates of exchange even from one currency to another in foreign countries throughout the world. When you go to a bank to exchange one foreign currency for another, you will usually find that on the little exchange slip or receipt they give you as a record of the transaction, first is listed the amount and the kind of currency which you gave them, then its value in dollars, believe it or not, and then finally its value in the local currency for which you are exchanging it!

SO THE GOD DOLLAR--THE GREEN PIG--HAS BEEN THE WORLD-WIDE STANDARD OF VALUE and of monetary exchange since most of the world went off the gold standard, and, subsequently, the silver standard! In other words, the U.S. got so strong and so smart and rich and powerful that even after it was no longer willing to give you either gold or silver in exchange for your paper dollars, the value and power of that paper dollar held its value and power of exchange in the minds of the people by their faith in the American government and its people and its power! So that the dollar held its own for a long time after its actual value in gold or silver was gone!

IT HAS TAKEN THE WORLD 40 YEARS AND A LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN AMERICA and its government to finally wake the world to the fact that the dollar is actually worth very

Mr Gresham (2/10/2001; 16:25:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 47953)
Nice read
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=25884&threadid=25884
Here's a nice long, TEOTWAWKI read from PruBear's board.

Mr Gresham (2/10/2001; 16:07:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 47952)
Horatio
Bingo! It's a "dynamic system", not a market of supply/demand intersection.

The price compression is part of that dynamic. Sure, if you knew on what day the dynamic would turn the price, and your purchases were small enough to be accommodated, then you could catch the bottom.

But, under this dynamic system, there is a heightening probability of reversal with each passing day, and an increased probability that even the knowledgeable player could not catch it, either with speed necessary, or quantity desired.

The likely spike will be such a multiple of any further downside price movement, that the effort to call or catch an exact bottom is counterproductive. Risk/reward. FOA is basically saying that big players have not cared about catching a bottom, both because of their size and the high risk of reversal at anytime.

They have run their gold purchases like they run their other businesses: long-term optimization with information known to be limited.

Horatio (2/10/2001; 15:48:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47951)
(No Subject)
It looks like a Duck...
Its not just Central banks involved in gold control.Look at what Banks require for a start up mine!Before they will lend money they require a hedge program!What does this mean?They know it will suppress future earnings therefore thier intent is suspect.I think they want to own the mines as part of a stratgy to own the gold.A new Currency must be on the horizon,one that will be gold backed .The banks want to suppress the price now by the hedgeing process so they will own the gold in the ground.There are so many Dollars outside the U.S.any drop in the Dollar will cause a flood of demand for real U.S.assets.Real Estate ,commodities,anything tangable.One solution ,recall the currency 1 for 10 ,like a reverse split in a stock.The only problem with reverse splits is ,if the company has no earnings the new stock collapses back to the old price loseing 90 % of its pre split price.A new currency MUST have gold backing or the same thing will happin,the paper itself has no value.
This may be what the gold suppression is all about.They are BUYING Gold not selling it!Useing dirivatives to suppress the price while they accumulate PHYSICAL by any means possible.WHO ARE THE BUYERS ? THEY ARE! They are selling paper,BUYING physical!

R Powell (2/10/2001; 14:59:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 47950)
Gandalf the White

Gandy, I'll have to disagree with Alex McCallum's "selling eased off" in cotton. Cotton got hammered (by the specs) big time Thursday and Friday. It seems a big merchant has taken a huge hunk of the March contract and the specs have a large short position they may find hard to cover. Exactly like the specs are short in gold but (IMHO) the cotton merchant, Dunavent, may squeeze the funds a little before he lets them go! Maybe GATA can convince the gold producers to squeeze some. McCallum has a good site there, mostly traders but there are a few diehard goldbugs. Some of us are both. Give my regards to the hobbits.
Rich


Horatio (2/10/2001; 14:46:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 47949)
inflation
Fed seems to have found a way to sterlize inflation by suppressiong the price of gold.They are monitizing debt at a rapid rate in order to forstall out of control desent of the economy .The Dollar will desend along with monitizing debt.This is all normally highly inflationary therefore suppressing gold is some sort of artificial way of suppressing inflation while money supply explodes.The fed must now reign in the money supply without contracting the economy ,a nice trick if you can do it!If he can reign in the money supply and keep the economy going then theres no need suppress gold any longer,The chairman is trying to inflate without the effects of inflation....nice trick if you can do it.
He is the one suppressing gold!no one else

R Powell (2/10/2001; 14:30:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 47948)
USAGOLD

I agree entirely with your "All the computerized trend players will scramble to line up on the other side of the gold market." I believe many equate the speculative commodity fund managers with TPTB who are pressuring POG lower. They are not the same. The spec. money managers are exactly as you describe them- trend followers. Right now they have a short position in the gold market that's about as large as what they held just before Sept. 26, 1999. When the trend reverses, they will be forced to short cover (buy) and will then probably go long (buy more). These managers know little other than how to position themselves after reading a chart or if I'm underestimating them, their position will still be a result of the "trend".
The final capitulation spike down in POG signaling a long term bottom is probably the most widely held scenario, especially at the neighbor's, G-E forum. Whether this happens or not, investor sentiment (as you mentioned) is the key. When that reverses, the real battle begins. If, as Carl H speculated a few days ago, the Central and Bullion banks position themselves correctly, they might become a major force for higher POG! I never really believed POG could hit some of the predicted four digit numbers bandied about until considering his scenario.
JML has reported Goldman Sacks' name among recent gold market stoppers. If they truly see the euro at $1.22 this year, they may be buying (and taking delivery) for no one other than themselves. Not a sea change on their part as many would think if the past many years' selling which has been attributed to them was simply the filling of client's orders.
I watch the commodities in general and cotton, the grains and gold/silver in particular. Of all these and anything else an investor/speculator might consider, gold and silver have the greatest potential, by far, of all. Potential that is to truly jump, in short order, to multipules of the present dollar prices. Perhaps this year?
Rich

Chris Powell (2/10/2001; 14:24:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 47947)
A letter from Johannesburg by GATA Chairman Bill Murphy
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/650
He's getting South Africa ready to stand
up for itself.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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Gandalf the White (2/10/2001; 13:39:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 47946)
MORE Propaganda to diss !
Thank you RossL for the prior Antidote !
RossL (2/10/2001; 12:19:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 47941)
Antidote to the propaganda
=====
I just received the following "talk the book" !
=====
Gandalf,
Metals failed to shine, Energies met profit-taking, Grains were dull and Softs were soft, with the result that the CRB/Bridge index sank 3.78 points over the week to close at 224.31. Equities continued to suffer from the economic outlook -- boosting Bonds -- while the US Dollar stayed firm after Japan made a 'symbolic' cut in its discount rate that failed to re-charge the Yen. In metals, the sinking stock market took Copper down to five-month lows, Gold and Silver were distinctly lackluster, and Palladium dropped sharply as Russian deliveries became more likely. In energies, Crude and Heating Oil were hit by profit-taking late after strong rallies earlier in the week, while a cool weather outlook sustained Natural Gas. Cocoa took a dive midweek, Coffee still looked bearish despite rally attempts, while Sugar was under pressure from producer sales. Selling eased in Cotton. Live Cattle took an opposing tack, climbing to a four-week high as storms loomed over the Plains.
Alex McCallum, Editorial Director & Forum Moderator
====
<;-)

USAGOLD (2/10/2001; 13:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 47945)
RPowell. . . . .
I left my Grant's at the office and was going from memory, but as I recall the 3.1% dip in foreign held U.S. paper represents a sharp reversal from positive to negative numbers. It appeared in his stats section and I don't recall any comment, though I'm sure he will have something to say if this trend goes any further because I believe you are correct -- this is "significant news." I think you are seeing the same problem manifesting itself in the stock market as capital heads back to Europe. Goldman Sachs predicts that the euro will hit $1.22 this year. That's a big number and cannot be considered outside the context of a sea change -- as FOA has also indicated in this Trail post yesterday.

Capital repatriation does add to the money supply numbers but not just as capital coming back to the United States. There's another way. I have begun to use the term "financing the surplus" of late because since we are all playing the "surplus" game, I don't think gold advocates should be left out of the fun. Since the end of the government's fiscal year (September 29, 2000), the government has added $42 billion to the national debt while both political parties wrangled over spending the surplus, or not spending it, or rendering a tax cut because of its presence (all with a wink from the Fed chairman). So because government paper had to be issued and purchased somewhere to raise this capital, I think we should call it "financing the surplus." Of course, under circumstances of a reduced demand for these debt instruments, the Fed chairman might contemplate "monetizing the surplus." And that's the second way that financing the surplus adds to the money supply. All in all, as this goes on demand might dry up for the paper and then we've got a problem. Perhaps Randy might have some thoughts on what happens to those bonds when they are repurchased by an American marketmaker on Wall Street and that dealer begins to have liquidity problems ( the way specialists do in stock market meltdowns.)

On the other issue you raised, Greenspan has talked unceasingly about the supply side keeping the inflation rate down as imports flooded into the country to meet the money creation. We are beginning to see tangible signs that the Bush administration might be interested in a weaker dollar at least with respect to the euro. If so, the rate of price inflation would likely increase as imports slow down. The Japanese stock market late last week went into a catatonic state and officials scrambled to save it. That tells me that some of the big money there sees a sea change coming and it might have to do with dollar policy.

How would all this affect the price of gold? My own feeling is that there will come a time when the sentiment changes for a number of reasons the way it did in the early 1970s. All the computerized trend players will scramble to line up on the other side of the gold market. We continue to hear stories floating the markets about major players buying physical metal but there has been no verification (nor would we expect there to be any). These are long cycles with which we are dealing as physical gold owners, and I can't help but think we are nearing the end in this one. All the buyers callsing the office are unanimous in one regard: They voice their disbelief at how cheap gold is. A good, sharp downward price spike sometimes signals the bottom and a quick turnaround in the long cycle. For what its worth, I believe that buying gold all the way up to $400 from here (or wherever it settles) will turn out to be like purchasing it at $35 in the late 1960s early 1970s. We are in the throes of a major change in worldwide markets, and the international dollar float will be a major factor in the economic policy scramble now unfolding.

R Powell (2/10/2001; 12:51:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 47943)
Bigfloat
http:/www.thespiritof76.com/bigfloat.html


Thought this should be available today after spouting off about Bigfloat in regards to Mr. Grants observations of foreign held U.S. paper. Grant's observations are mentioned by Michael in the USAGOLD post earlier (47938).

R Powell (2/10/2001; 12:40:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 47942)
Harmony hedge

Thanks Black Blade for the Barron's article (47936).
It is mentioned that in order to secure a bank loan, "Harmony agreed to purchase a put option, giving it the right, but not the obligation, to sell one million ounces of gold- about 40% of the company's annual production at about $260 apiece."
Harmony has bought insurance- namely that it will be able to sell gold no lower than $260/ounce. If the POG is lower, Harmony will exercise its options to get $260/ounce. If gold is priced higher than $260/ounce, Harmony will get the higher price and the option expires worthless. The bank's require insurance of the ability to repay, this is insurance but in no way obligates Harmony to sell at low prices. Forward sales in the form of futures contracts forces (obligates) sales at those predetermined prices. Options do not. Harmony has, IMHO, made an excellent move but purchasing options rather than forward selling gold production (with futures).
Think of these options and their cost as similar to homeowners (fire) insurance and the premium it costs. The bank requires the insurance so that you will be able to repay the mortgage. You hope never to collect on the fire insurance, Harmony hopes never to exercise those options.
It would seem Harmony thinks POG will be higher in the future as it spent money on the options premium rather than simply selling forward production. Also, the loan secured is to increase production which also makes one think they are betting on a higher POG. I see this as good news, too bad I don't determine the POG, no? It would be much higher!
Rich

RossL (2/10/2001; 12:19:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 47941)
Antidote to the propaganda
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton021101.html

The antidote to the Newsweek propaganda (Old Yeller #47939) can be found in the editorial at the link.


R Powell (2/10/2001; 12:15:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47940)
Return of U.S. debt?

Michael, thanks for passing along Mr. Grant's observation that "foreign held U.S. paper is down 3.1% over the last quarter". This brings to mind a horseman vision, the one called "Big Float".
Did Mr. Grant mention if the decrease in foreign held U.S. paper has been an ongoing trend or is this a decrease in the quarter as opposed to increases before? How can the U.S. continue to run an annual trade deficit estimated at over $400 billion if dollar debt is not "absorbed" overseas?
Is this decrease in U.S. paper perhaps the result of reserves being transfered from the U.S. dollar to the Euro?
Mr. Grants thoughts are always worth a great deal of thought but they are hard to access (read expensive). I'm always on the lookout for them as well as yours.
If this foreign held paper reduction continues and increases, do we finally see product and service price increases or the common man's idea of inflation? I'm one of those who tend to think money supply inflation, which has been ongoing, must lead to price inflation as soon as the world stops "absorbing" our currency. I think this may be significant news. There are others who say technology will reduce manufacturing costs to offset price inflation. This may be a race of sorts but a wholesale return of even a small part of the estimated 7 trillion (?) dollars held out of country would be quite a shock. I think.
Did Mr. Grant elaborate on a possible return of "Bigfloat"? What price gold then?
Rich


Old Yeller (2/10/2001; 10:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 47939)
Perceptions of propaganda
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

I read the Newsweek article linked to the commentary early this week,I was surprised that it wasn't sliced and diced on the forum.In seems incredibly simplistic,one-sided and factually lacking,in short typical of the "information" we endure on a continous basis.

This is just one small brick in a massive wall of dis-information being built on a worldwide basis.The problem of a worthless currency localized in one country is easily solved;massive devaluation and oppressively high interest rates.The US dollar cancer is everywhere now:we all recognize this,however we cannot be heard above the deafening cacophony of opinions not based on reality or monetary history.Disinformation is king when everybody has something to lose;especially the chosen ones.

Yes the truth will come out sooner or later, it's a numbers game and numbers can be distorted and hedonized for only so long.Hunker down and keep a eye out for weaknesses in the wall,it's going to be a long campaign.

USAGOLD (2/10/2001; 9:45:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 47938)
Winter Thoughts on Another Thoughts
FOA, yesterday I had determined that I would reserve some of my Saturday time to read carefully your latest Trail entry and I am glad I did. As someone who has followed Another Thoughts from the very beginning, I can say that herein lies one of the most important messages posted since the beginning. The video receiver is now in clear focus and the picture is there for all to see. For me this paragraph defines, reduces and encompasses the Thoughts message developed over the past two years:

"As I mentioned above; most of the major gold buyers,,,, the physical gold advocates,,,,,, those that want it as a wealth reserve,,,,,, were gathering physical gold all prior to EMU. Even after EMU, as we worked our way into the early Euro era, gold ownership is intended to bridge the transition away from dollar reserve use. For these nation states and individuals just want gold,,,, not for trading now,,,, nor for use now,,,, and they don't care about it's dollar price now."

In the Footsteps of Giants Revisited.

Many have asked: Where has all the gold gone that has hit the leasing market over the past decade? The standard industry response has been that much has been reconfigured as jewelry and sold around the world, but that cannot account for the amounts surmised even at the low end of the spectrum. (And we must remember that all the leasing numbers on both the low and high end are just that -- "estimates" -- no one knows the actual numbers.) And what's more, the buyers of this gold did not care what the price was. In fact, it didn't matter, figuring into the process only as an invoice entry that precipitated its delivery. Mining companies unfortunately appear to be the big losers in the unfolding scenario as they get an ever decreasing price for their production and reserves while valuable finished metal ends up on well-heeled balance sheets. Though they keep the pipeline primed with liquidity, they do so to their detriment and possible demise -- a very poor bargain.

I have been considering the possibility that the euro will be brought front and center at about the time the European Strategic Strike Force becomes a reality. The modern state, like all its preceding manifestations, requires a military component for both political and economic reasons -- and they do serve each other well, the way the engine serves the drive train. With a European strategic force ready to be mobilized, Europe can reach into the Gulf for example in the event of aggression to protect the financial interests of those with whom it signs a economic co-operation treaty --a treaty one would speculate might include the use of the euro (probably along with the dollar) in oil settlements. I think it would be difficult for the euro to be considered a real reserve asset in the abscence of a strategic military capability and that, to me, is the real reason for the Strike Force. For better or worse, it will establish Europe as the super-power competitor to the United States, and the euro the super-power competitor to the dollar.

The United States has not been receptive to the concept of a Euro force saying that it would undermine NATO and the U.S. is right, but Europe is looking to the success of its own currency and its fledgling nation state and NATO may be the international institution of the past. From the Euro and American perspective, it is not difficult to understand why each has positioned itself as it has. The building of the EuroForce will also allow Europe to issue bonds and build the scope of the new currency worldwide. It also puts teeth in its foreign policy. The U.S. senses that the such a move would free Europe, as well as the Gulf, from the dollar and the world will have changed dramatically.

It is this perception which could have a telling effect on the bond market and the value of the dollar, and heightens the portfolio for gold on both sides of the Atlantic. The rotation might have already begun. I note in my latest Grant's Interest Rate Observer that foreign held U.S. paper is down 3.1% over the last quarter. This is not happening in a vacuum.

I found it interesting that the Blair government was quick to reassure the United States it should not be overly concerned with the EuroForce. And though I am sure American policy makers are comforted by the reassurances, soothing remarks on this score to the U.S. State Department to me appear a crowning move. (I now visualize my dollar in our bet sprouting wings and flying into your embrace though I await the election and what a Tory victory might bring.) At the same time I doubt the U.S. government might be lulled to sleep on this issue by the Blair government. The advice will be accepted with a smile and a nod while the State and Defense Departments begin to play out the scenarios.

The transition period of which you speak may already be under way. Yes, we will watch this new gold market together.

With the hope that you are wintering well . . . . .MK

P.S. As always my best to Another.


Black Blade (2/10/2001; 8:41:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 47937)
Another Take on Cheeta's Up coming Testimony
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010210/g.html
Just another take on Cheeta's upcoming semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkin's testimony before the senate. Not everyone is happy about it. tsk tsk.

Black Blade (2/10/2001; 8:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 47936)
Commodities Corner - Barron's
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews/4251575.htm
Cheryl Strauss Einhorn gloats over low POG.

tedw (2/10/2001; 7:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 47935)
The Washington Agreement
http://www.usagold.com

Here we are with Gold below $260 an ounce. We are back at the same place we were just prior to the Washington Agreement. Gold is near 20 year lows.


I must ask the question. Has the Washington agreement really changed anything?

Was the intention of the European banks to raise the price of Gold? If not, what was their intention? If that was their intention, have they failed? Are we likely to see the European Banks tanking further action along these same lines?


tedw (2/10/2001; 7:02:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 47934)
The Washington Agreement
http://www.usagold.com

Here we are with Gold below $260 an ounce. We are back at the same place we were just prior to the Washington Agreement. Gold is near 20 year lows.


I must ask the question. Has the Washington agreement really changed anything?

Was the intention of the European banks to raise the price of Gold? If not, what was their intention? If that was their intention, have they failed? Are we likely to see the European Banks tanking further action along these same lines?


tedw (2/10/2001; 7:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 47933)
The Washington Agreement
http://www.usagold.com

Here we are with Gold below $260 an ounce. We are back at the same place we were just prior to the Washington Agreement. Gold is near 20 year lows.


I must ask the question. Has the Washington agreement really changed anything?

Was the intention of the European banks to raise the price of Gold? If not, what was their intention? If that was their intention, have they failed? Are we likely to see the European Banks tanking further action along these same lines?


tedw (2/10/2001; 7:01:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47932)
The Washington Agreement
http://www.usagold.com

Here we are with Gold below $260 an ounce. We are back at the same place we were just prior to the Washington Agreement. Gold is near 20 year lows.


I must ask the question. Has the Washington agreement really changed anything?

Was the intention of the European banks to raise the price of Gold? If not, what was their intention? If that was their intention, have they failed? Are we likely to see the European Banks tanking further action along these same lines?


tedw (2/10/2001; 7:00:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 47931)
The Washington Agreement
http://www.usagold.com

Here we are with Gold below $260 an ounce. We are back at the same place we were just prior to the Washington Agreement. Gold is near 20 year lows.


I must ask the question. Has the Washington agreement really changed anything?

Was the intention of the European banks to raise the price of Gold? If not, what was their intention? If that was their intention, have they failed? Are we likely to see the European Banks tanking further action along these same lines?


Black Blade (2/10/2001; 7:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 47930)
Cheeta Gets Some Criticism For Economic Downturn
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010210/c.html
The monkey goes to Washington DC to get grilled by senators next week on his semi-annual trek into the Jungle. He will throw a few bananas and peanuts to the apes we call senators. I'm sure the old silver-back Sen. Byrd will go off on some stupid tangent talking about his dog or something. Last time he talked about how the world is different now with it getting hotter in summer, colder in winter, and more earthquakes, etc. Huh? Sen. Kennedy - if he's sober enough and doesn't slur his words too badly, will likely ask him why he changed his position on tax cuts. All of the other babboons and apes will probably ask (chatter?) some inane idiotic questions and sit there with galzed-over looks on their faces as Cheeta chatters wildy flailing his arms about, and then they will shower Cheeta with high holy praises. It looks like it could have all the makings of an "interesting" circus. Ya could say it might be as fun as a "barrel of monkeys." Looks to be quite an embarassment - then again, these idiots have no shame.

LeSin (2/10/2001; 4:55:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 47929)
@ FOA/TG and Walking that Circle
TG/FOA - Thanks for the reply, most apreciated.

Sorrel - does not do well here in the Tropics. I am also a strict ORGANIC Gardener and refuse to spray chemical fungicides. We do grow many other herds and delightful edible plants. However fishing the waters of the Great Barrier Reef makes up for poor sorrel crops <smile>. "S"

LeSin (2/10/2001; 4:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 47928)
Gold Price Advice & Solutions - Everyone has the Answers, Yes????
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2852569ED006D2714?OpenDocument


Posted: 2001/02/9 12:00 AM EST
Low gold price shouts for Greenspan's attention

NEW YORK -- Is it my imagination, or is there a resurgence of interest in the gold standard? I'm not talking about theories of a conspiracy to make gold about as valuable as tin, but earnest debate about the need to stabilize the international financial system by fixing it to a neutral commodity.

Gold couldn't be neutral in the 1970s and 1980s because it would have rewarded the Soviet Union and South Africa – the world's primary gold producers at the time – for unacceptable behaviour. Both systems have since been reformed and there is no obvious argument for continuing to rely on the US Federal Reserve to keep the dollar honest.

The dollar's honesty is at the heart of the debate. Its fortunes are a function of American political activity whereas gold has relative independence. It's a commercial bridge between nations without treading on their sovereignty. At the same time it is immune from the stupidity of governments and imposes external discipline. For example, had the dollar remained as good as gold, the US would not have been able to finance the Vietnam War and shift the burden to the rest of the world.

The stop-and-go gyrations of the last few years where successive Asian crises paralleled an unprecedented speculative bubble on Wall Street, seems to be driving dissatisfaction with the dollar as numeraire. Also, don't underestimate the impact of the Nobel Prize for economics awarded to Canadian economist Robert Mundell in 1999.

When the US disconnected the dollar from gold in the late 1960s, Mundell was a lone voice warning of the danger of floating exchange rates. He predicted, in the face of considerable ridicule, that the world would eventually shift back to a gold standard by 1980. He was dead wrong on that account, but his work on gold as an independent monetary marker is remarkably prescient.

Jude Wanniski, one-time editor of the Wall Street Journal who coined the term "supply side economics" and advisor to President Ronald Reagan, underscored the importance of Mundell's work this week in a note circulated to subscribers to his Polyconomics site.

Mundell identifies gold as an exact price level indicator independent of the real economy. A declining price can mean only one thing – deflation. Even though gold is no longer a unit of official exchange, Wanniski shows that it still retains its price function.

For example, the change in the gold price from $35 in 1950 to $350 an ounce into the 80s matched precisely a tenfold increase in US national debt. Similarly, homes that cost $10,000 in 1950 increased to $100,000 over the same period. Gold's decline to less than $300 an ounce since 1996 has been matched by rising US budget surpluses.

Wanniski warns that if the US government tolerates gold drifting below $270 an ounce, then we can expect: "a series of declines in corporate earnings, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, until the whole economy is adjusted to the lower gold price. Unless the problem is fixed, it could drag the administration down with it."

In other words, if Greenspan paid attention to gold, he would have realized that excess liquidity was not the problem over the last two years, but quite the reverse. The Fed has been supplying the markets with the wrong medicine because its diagnostic tools are wrong. It was intent on fighting inflation when it was already deceased.

Wanniski argues that interest rates were cut unnecessarily since the inverted yield curve on US Treasuries was already doing its job. By cutting rates, Greenspan caused a contraction on top of deflation which is going to take a mighty effort to undo.

"The contraction part can be overcome by lowering short-term interest rates or cutting marginal income-tax rates and capital-gains taxation. The deflation part of the problem can only be rectified by having the Fed add sufficient liquidity to cause gold to climb back over $300. Otherwise, there will be an slow, grinding, downward adjustment of all dollar prices -- the mirror image of the slow, grinding upward adjustment of all dollar prices that we knew as
the inflation of the 1970s."

Wanniski says the problem can be corrected quickly by stabilizing "the dollar value of international gold reserves (in Fort Knox) at perhaps $300 or $320."

This is not quite a return to the gold standard, which even Mundell now thinks is unachievable in an official sense, but it would be a significant step closer. By the way, Mundell believes gold can "become a non-governmental unit of account and means of payment for ordinary transactions and the Internet. It would then serve as a check on inflationary governments."

Wanniski's wish is unlikely to ever get a serious hearing since Milton Friedman still has such a grip on official economic thinking. He despises gold in the modern context where governments play such a central role in the economy and has advocated the sale of all gold reserves over five years.

"No major country would tolerate the discipline of a real, effective gold standard," Friedman said last year in an interview with Canada's National Post. Indeed, but that just reinforces the point that it is politically undesirable when it may in fact be financially necessary.

By: Tim Wood




Black Blade (2/10/2001; 2:28:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 47927)
Thieves Turn a Profit
http://www.stockscape.com/stockscape_com/homepages/myfullstory_MN.cfm?newsid=1053

No, it's not about Goldman Sachs or AngloGold. But, at least someone is making a profit on SA Gold these days ;-)

Black Blade (2/10/2001; 2:22:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 47926)
Why is the Price of Gold so Low?
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews/4248932.htm

Everything seems to have conspired to drive gold into the dirt recently. The stronger dollar, earthquakes in India (even God is getting in a few punches), leasing and forward selling by hedge-fund miners. All of this in spite of stronger fundamentals for gold such as sinking equities markets, expanding recessionary-inflationary pressures, energy crises, and an ever more unstable middle-east. I am still mulling over ORO's recent post that TPTB are covering their collective a## by grabbing up physical, etc. Could be, however, in the case of AngloGold (AU) the largest producer with a confused cross-ownership with various other producers, it is in my opinion that they are building up a "War Chest" to make a corporate raid on some hapless producers in this poor price environment. They're like sharks - they smell blood in the water and the feeding frenzy is about to break out. They say that is not their intention, but after so many lies, does anyone really believe them? Why would they sell forward 70% of the next 5 years of production at these rediculously low prices? The low rate of return even after investment in treasuries/bonds is absurdly low. Something else must be in the works here. Possibly a collapse of the rand? They are obviously not concerned about a rising POG causing them any difficulty. I smell a big South African rat.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (2/10/2001; 2:03:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 47925)
Grasshopper Blames Palm Pilots for California Energy Crisis
http://www.eastsidejournal.com/sited/story/html/43920

The take on this story. - One Palm equals one refrigerator, in terms of total energy used.

Black Blade: Whatever.



Black Blade (2/10/2001; 1:57:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 47924)
California ISO projects huge power shortfall
http://ogj.pennnet.com/Content/cd_anchor_printscreen/1,1242,OGJ_7_NEWS_DISPLAY_91838_1_7,00.html
Looks very grim for the Grasshoppers. Summer is going to be "Interesting." The economy is already in a shambles for Tech. Suddenly, more and more talking heads are awakening to the fact that we're in a recession. "And they, danced, sang, and played all summer..."



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