Home Gold Primer Q&A Daily Market Report Gold IRA Gold Coin Prices Charts Stats Essays Site Overview High Net Worth How to Buy Gold Live Gold Price Breaking Gold News Mobile Gold Price Gold Coin Images About Us-Contact Search Video Round Tables

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

Select date of the archive you wish to view Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Archives date back to September 22, 1998

WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/10/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

SteveH (08/10/00; 23:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 34779)
repost
www.kitco.com
Date: Fri Aug 11 2000 00:23
Earl (John Disney:) ID#227238:
Copyright © 2000 Earl/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
More on your 3:28 from last nite. This taken from the following link:

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Speeches/Rp000411.htm

Total central banks sales 90-99: 3153 tons. ...... average: 312/yr.
Of that total, some 1643 tons in period 95-99.

Total leased gold in yrs 90-99: 4000 tons.
Average in early years was about 250 tons/yr. Rose to about 500 tons/yr in the period 95-99. ..... ( no $hit! )

The divining rod points to average probable dishoarding rate of about 800 tons/yr over 90-99 period.

Estimates for annual dishoarding rate, for the next 5 years are no more than 700 tons/yr or 3500 total.

============================
You failed to note the period for producer forwards ( the 2500 tons ) but spread over the 90s that would have put total gold dumping at some 1050 tons per year. ......... And that still does not account for private stashes made to earn their keep via the generous lease rate.

In a nutshell, we're still a couple of ounces shy of 14,000 tons but mostly over 10,000 total ( total dishoard ) . ....... less total reported sales of 3150 tons........ and we have some 7000 tons on lease and at risk of default.

Closing comment from speech:

"The influence of official stocks on sentiment in the gold market, which has dominated discussion in the past 10 years, will inevitably decline in the long run. This is because the share of the total above-ground gold stock held by the official sector is declining, as all newly mined gold goes into private hands."

Mr Gresham (08/10/00; 23:47:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 34778)
All Ri-i-i-i-i-i-i-ght!
Just checking in one more time at a late hour -- and seeing the first (latest) posts announcing FOA's return! I'm looking forward to some juicy reading. Something that "we happy few" could use right about now...

MarkeTalk (08/10/00; 23:43:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 34777)
Of Bankers and Faschism
Query: Did anyone watch "Dateline" Wednesday night? There were two primary subjects which caught my attention: the world of banking and politics; and the world of humans interacting with sharks. Come to think of it, I believe there is a definite connection between bankers and sharks. Anyway, the story about how our illustrious (notorious?) Chase Manhattan Bank supported the rise of Adolf Hitler to power. In fact, Chase Manhattan was more than eager to finance the "Rueckwanderung" program of the Nazis. Why would that be? Because faschism was good for business. Everyone had a job, no welfare loafers, and the trains ran on time! And Chase Manhattan knew what it was doing. It took an act of Congress to prohibit trading with the enemy. Otherwise, it would have been business as usual throughout the war.

Fast forward to the present day. In the upcoming August issue of our firm's newsletter, News & Views, we quote the World Gold Council's July 2000 Report wherein it states the figures compiled by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on the value of gold derivatives. Without stealing the thunder of our publication, as of 31 March 2000 the off-balance sheet value of gold derivatives of the U.S. commercial banks stood at approximately $95.5 billion--up from around $87 billion at the end of 1999. With the way the gold market has been pounded in recent months, I am sure that the value of gold derivatives is well in excess of $100 billion and probably approaching $120 billion. Now guess who is one of the major players? You guessed it--Chase Manhattan Bank!

Now to all of those skeptics who talk to me on the phone or who read this forum: If Chase Manhattan can finance Adolf Hitler, the greatest tyrant of the 20th century, who caused directly or indirectly the deaths of about 50 million people, then why is it such a stretch to believe that Chase Manhattan is actively manipulating the gold market? Are the skeptics brain-dead or just wanting to believe the party line? One final thought. History has a funny way of revealing hidden things at precisely the right moment (for the masses) and at precisely the wrong moment (for the manipulators). It would not surprise me that this story of Chase's involvement in Hitler's war machine could lead to a gargantuan settlement and payout to the victims of the Holocaust courtesy of the World Jewish Congress. Just witness what happened to the Swiss banks and German companies in the past 3-6 months. If Chase Manhattan has to pay, then where will the money come from to continue the gold derivatives game? And what if the gold price jumps (for any number of reasons) above $310/ounce and Chase is forced to cover its shorts? Last September's $80 rally in one week will be chicken feed in comparison. We are now talking hundreds of dollars per ounce.

TEX (08/10/00; 23:12:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 34776)
No more late night/early morning posts!
Whew.......I guess you would call that late night/early morning post something similar to "a momentary lapse of reason". I gotta get some real sleep and stay away until morning. Thanks TOPAZ, ORO, AUSPEC and SIMPLY ME for the comments. Think I scared FOA and ANOTHER enough to return?
See you all later in lurker land. I gotta hit the sack.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!

Gandalf the White (08/10/00; 23:09:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 34775)
Question for FOA / TG
Did you park the GOLD Mercedes in London or Paris ?
<;-)
WELCOME BACK HOME!

Simply Me (08/10/00; 22:49:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 34774)
My birthday celebration is complete! FOA and Another, welcome back!
Just came back from dinner with my family celebrating my 49th birthday. We all went to a lovely Italian restaurant full of Frank Sinatra memorabilia. Old tunes from the 40's by Jerry Vale, Dean Martin, Rosemary Clooney and ol'Blue Eyes himself played at just the right level for conversation. Calamari appetizer, garden salad topped with mandarin orange vinegrette, scallops florentine entree, crusty Italian bread, and a magnificent not-too-sweet hand-made canoli for desert...all washed down with a smooth French Merlot. If Vito Corleone had walked in, I wouldn't have been surprised. It was heaven! And my two youngest sons...11 and 12 actually behaved themselves!
And then to come home and look in on may favorite website to see FOA post again!...with the additional treat of a message from Another!! I'm just too excited for words!
Their arrival portends new excitement in the gold market and I'm READY! Will the paper and physical prices part ways soon?

An enthusiastic Welcome Back to FOA and Another!
from simply me

P.S. To Tex: In six months you will see how crazy that plan was. Besides, in which stocks or fund were you going to invest for that sure-fire return to put back in gold? Merril-Lynch wants to know!


Black Blade (08/10/00; 22:42:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 34773)
Another Silver Rumor, Hmmmm...................
A rumor that has been floating in some circles over the last couple of days about silver supply, is that the most recent Gold Fields Mineral services (GFMS)report on silver may have mistated silver stockpiles. The rumor says that Warren Buffett's 20% of world silver peoduction supply was double counted. First, as supply onto the market when leased, and Secondly, as "above ground supply" as though it was all still in the London warehouse. this is only a rumor, but if true, it would account for a lot of discrepancies in the "Silver report". Also, the question arises, could it be possible that this was an isolated incident? Also, could this be another reason that GFMS refused to debate GATA on the PM supply issue? It certainly cvould raise a lot of red flags.

JMB (08/10/00; 22:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 34772)
Is there an interpreter in the house...I'm going to need one in a couple of days.
Black Blade...ORO...get ready boys, you're going to be called upon to decipher the mysteries from abroad.
TIA

Black Blade (08/10/00; 22:07:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 34771)
@FOA
Welcome back, I see that you have returned to your old handle. Since you bring up Another, do you have any of his views concerning the most recent petroleum crises? Also, is he likely to drop in on this forum and take a few questions now that he has been absent for so long? My take is that the oil demand-supply equation has become quite out of balance, and I expect that oil could rise to $40.00/bbl in short order. In fact, if this winter should be a bit on the severe side, then $50.00/bbl oil would not be out of the question, not to mention record high prices for Natural Gas. The last couple of US recessions were preceded by sharp rises in oil, mostly out of political concerns. The most severe was of course, the OPEC induced shortage in the early 1970's in response the the US support of Israel, and secondly the short lived recession due to the Persian Gulf conflict. Now, this time the petroleum question is quite different as it is based on the fundamentals of supply and demand and is likely to be a long-term sustained problem possibly leading to a long-term recession (if history is a guide). I would like your veiw on this. Also, if Another were to be so kind, I would like to read his perception of this issue as well, especially since he apparrently "might" has some unique insight here. Thanks in advance - Black Blade.

Buena Fe (08/10/00; 21:58:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 34770)
boy its as dry as a tinder box in these here markets
FOA, welcome back. Your "timing" is perfect.

If authorities think the wild fires out west are bad, wait till the assorted paper markets get goin! I hear thunder, I smell lightning!
Gold is Precious

Scrappy (08/10/00; 21:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 34769)
Hello, FOA!
Welcome back! Glad to see you!

Your input here is so appreciated! Thank you.

John Galt (08/10/00; 21:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 34768)
conundrumical cryptic quandry question
So physical gold for oil again eh? I wonder how domestic, Mexican and Venezualan oil will play for physical? They are not of the dinar mindset, no?

LeSin (08/10/00; 20:40:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 34767)
Gold Drama from GoldEagle
Thank you "denboy" I found your comments very interesting and worth sharing with other forums. "S"

The Gold Drama
(denboy) Aug 10, 20:27

We are witnessing an interesting drama taking place. The gold price has been knocked down to such an incredibly low price that even a small uptick could cause a tidal wave of buying.
The gold manipulators see themselves as "Custer's last stand" in order to protect the U.S. paper dollar and all the myriad of international fiat curencies from the wrath of the "MONARCH OF ALL MONARCHS' - gold (Shakespeare).
The manipulators are now caught in a dreadful dilemma. They have to skewer the price down permanently - in perpetuity.
The low price of gold is a mirror image of the severity of the economic situation which is currently experiencing depression and inflation simultaneously. 64,000 corporate layoffs announced for the month of July and how many non-corporate layoffs? The manipulators are fighting for their economic lives!
As soon as gold goes up the whole sordid manipulation is exposed. The lower the price goes the more international demand for the metal, causing the Central Bankers and manipulators et al to be obliged to sell all their gold in order for the financial hoax to continue to be perpetrated



FOA (08/10/00; 20:33:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 34766)
RETURN
A Big Hello to Michael Kosares and all the people at Centennial Precious Metals!

And Hello To Everyone That Reads And Writes On The USAGOLD FORUM!


I have been away for a while and consumed some good Thoughts from many people in many places. Having only been back a few days, I have a large personal agenda to take care of. Once
that is done, I'll offer up my views and Another's perception on this ongoing evolution of Gold. Some of this has again arrived in the familiar "Another (Thoughts)" context.

By now most of you may agree that our world economic function is fast changing in a dangerous way. This new function's direction has blocked the return to "normal" markets and the "normal" paper contract prices many of us experienced in our youth. In Dollar terms, we will never see these markets correctly value anything in our economic structure again. We are on a march into total dollar hyperinflation as our dollar evolves. Now, more than ever for the USA, "paper contracts of all forms must expand rapidly" or our dollar and our way of life will fail sooner rather than later! I think this slow process is well understood by many quiet thinkers, worldwide.

From Another before I departed:

========

"Look every direction to world's currencies as these do price gold for modern economy. I say now this not price of my gold. It be price of "your Western gold"! These Western gold values be true! It must it has no weight! My friend, man who does control not wealth, has no wealth, yes? Indeed,
any man that be "surprised" as value falls of paper gold wealth he owns and controls not "be a great asset to one that sells such wealth", yes?

We ask now what be "true value" of gold in world if all have contract metal but few do control value of contract? A world where economy stand on "strong legs" of government money and debt. Strong indeed with good flow of oil? Oil that once was pumped for "two golds" of equal worth.

Two golds there still be this new day, two golds. However one holds no value and held by many. Other holds value as never before, held by few. This oil, it slow now until there be one gold, one gold for all to see!" This day on, two gold bring "weak legs".

Another (Thoughts)

=========

Thanks everyone, I'll be back in a few days or so.
FOA/ your Trail Guide



FOA (08/10/00; 20:30:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 34765)
(No Subject)
TEST

USAGOLD (08/10/00; 20:27:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 34764)
Auspec. . .
Just for the record, nobody removed one of your posts.

Towncrier is off celebrating his birthday and I just tuned in and we are the only two so empowered.

After you post, if you don't see your post, try clicking the refresh or reload button and the Forum will reload.

And there it will be. . .

Also, note the message numbers are in sequential order.



auspec (08/10/00; 19:46:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 34763)
Apology
Dear Friends, I am sorry for breaking one of your rules in my recent post. When it was removed I figured out what I had done wrong {inadvertently}. Wouldn't mind it being edited or reworked. Thanks, AUSPEC

Peter Asher (08/10/00; 18:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 34762)
Lamprey, Oil consumption
That would double global consumption in three years. That's still an awful lot of new cars, fertilizer and plastics to be produced, in that time.

Maybe he meant to say "Oil cosumptions is increasing at a rate of 2 million barrels a day per year."

Hill Billy Mitchell (08/10/00; 17:39:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 34761)
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H15/update/

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: August 10, 2000

Rates for Wednesday, August 9, 2000

Federal funds 6.48

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 6.25
10-year 5.81
20-year 6.02
30-year 5.73

upside-down spread FF vs long bond = (0.75%)


lamprey_65 (08/10/00; 17:35:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 34760)
Peter Asher
I'm glad you caught that, because it was that part of the quote that really took me aback. I agree, seems outlandish - I've double checked the quote and it is as appeared. Maybe misquoted in Barron's.

Someone posted recently that China is refining 4.4 million barrels more a day than this time last year, so maybe it should have been 2 million more barrels a month(?). Who knows.

R Powell (08/10/00; 17:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 34759)
Technical indicators and open interest
ORO, you took me by surprise with "Technical indicators are showing a bottom approaching in gold and particularly in silver" (34742). I guess I have never thought of you as someone who views markets from the technical analyst's point of view by which I imply market predictions based on time cycles, recurring chart patterns, wave theories, Fibonacci numbers and such. What specific indicators have brought you to this conclusion? I have never resolved how much truth to bestow on technical analysis or if such predictions of market resistance and support prove correct simply because enough people believe them to be correct, and act/trade/invest accordingly.
Concerning silver, total open interest according to IBD on 8/4/00 was 75,342 contracts. Total O.I. listed in today's WSJ is 89,533. I don't know if these numbers are in the catagory of technical or fundamental analysis but I do believe the increase indicates a possible move upward in the price of silver and, as they move together more often than not, gold. Technical analysis has impressed me with being a better timing indicator than fundamentals and is the reason that I'm trying to understand it more. It's the fundamentals that offer the solution (IMHO) of market prediction and putting all the fundamental ducks in the right order is exactly what offers the challange (provides the fun) for me.
If you can, what fundamentals brought you to that conclusion and what does the O.I. tell us?
Thanks R.Powell

Peter Asher (08/10/00; 17:14:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 34758)
Actually
Would double in 38 1/2 triple in another 38 1/2 etc.

NOT likly

Peter Asher (08/10/00; 17:12:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 34757)
lamprey_65 (08/10/00; 16:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 34755)
Re >>> Every day the world is
consuming 77 million barrels of oil. World oil demand is growing at TWO MILLION
BARRELS A DAY (my emphasis)<<<<

That would mean "World oil conumption will double every 38 1/2 days." I think some numbers are being tossed around a little on the loose side here.

auspec (08/10/00; 16:48:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 34756)
The Plan
Hey Gang- Here we are in the depths of gold market despair once again and one of my heroes, John Hathaway, comes out w an article on the Gold Eagle forum. Have you ever noticed his incredible timing at writing about the gold market just before it soars? One more time, John, w a little more staying power please! Let's say just for the sake of discussion that I came to the rescue of some boys that got in a jam a few yrs back by shorting excess gold and getting caught with their boots off. I took over their losing position because I have the deepest pockets and also a great deal at stake in this matter. What is my plan to get out of this mess with most of my chips intact? First of all I am hoping for a home run scenario- will do everything in my considerable power to get the gold price down in a panic low, ideally to the 200$ level that all were so fearful of about a year ago. Then can cash in the shorts and go long, laughing all the way to the [bullion] bank at the expense of those that panicked. My second scenario is a singles game and it has been ongoing for several years now. I basically run the market $10 to $20 in one direction, pick up a few chips and then run the market the other direction for a few more. If this is done enough times [ Lord only knows how many ] this ugly short position will go away. The moral to this story is that the true gold advocates must avoid, at all costs, the panic low they are looking for. You there Tex? There shorts get less painful every $20 they clip away at, but my guess is time and size of position is not on their side. Bambie, it looks like you're getting a few spikes on the top of your head. Good luck on leading the multitudes, I am working dilligently at leading myself through life's maize, as well as being a follower. I also am new to this site but have been fairly consumed since 93 w precious metals- thus even my mother calls me AUSPEC.

lamprey_65 (08/10/00; 16:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 34755)
Oil (and gold?)
I've been quite busy the past few weeks, so not sure this quote has been posted yet...it's from this week's Barron's. From an interview with Marvin Shwartz - manager of the highly regarded Neuberger Berman Fund.

August 7, 2000
pp. 28-32, copyright Barron's

..."We are heading for a crisis in petroleum. And a potential crisis in natural gas is right around the corner because you cannot easily import additional quantities of natural gas. With petroleum, you can lean hard enough on the Saudis and they will do us a favor and open up some valves. But even that is becoming rather precarious as a long-term solution. Every day the world is consuming 77 million barrels of oil. World oil demand is growing at TWO MILLION BARRELS A DAY (my emphasis), with the growth of China, Japan's comeback and the business pickup in Europe. We just don't have the excess supplies that are going to feed this insatiable demand. From a short-term view, natural gas is the more urgent of the two problems. And from a long-term view, and I mean less that five years, we are going to have a problem with petroleum."

So, 500,000 additional barrels a day is like spitting in the wind...and it's the increases from Asia driving this train.

wolavka (08/10/00; 16:29:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 34754)
globex
dec gold is going to move. wedged in with short range to breakout. 277.20 ------------279. Excuse ppi report but it was in mkt on wednesdays low. should get good short covering now.

schippi (08/10/00; 15:51:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 34753)
Select Gold is todays Top performer
Select Gold ( FSAGX ) posted the largest percentage gain
today, with respect to the other 37 Select Portfolio funds.
Lets hope it's a sign of the future!

Strad Master (08/10/00; 15:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 34752)
To Town Crier &/or USA Gold
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Just a suggestion, but if it's at all possible it might be nice to include the closing price of Crude Oil on the above quotes page, as well. FOA and Another certainly have posited a link between the POO and the POG. It would be nice to be able to get all the price information in one spot. Thanks for considering it.

leonard (08/10/00; 14:57:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 34751)
re to BAMBIE
here is the newspapper you asked for http://www.spotlight.org

TownCrier (08/10/00; 14:16:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 34750)
A little spritz of "Gremlin-B-Gone" took care of the problem
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
These things are to be expected in a technologically advanced world from time to time.

Funny, though. I've never needed to spritz down my gold. There's a lesson in there, somewhere.

TEX (08/10/00; 13:27:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 34749)
TOPAZ & ORO
TOPAZ - Thanks for confirming my own suspicions (smile)
ORO - Comments well taken. Again, I got into the business with good intentions but initial bad advice. Just trying to get to the point that I can "reinvest" in physical with a more logical long term process.
YIKES!

gidsek (08/10/00; 12:19:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 34748)
Bambi
"If I am not, I think I am meant to lead (don't take that as me thinking too highly of myself, I just can't imagine how I could ever be happy if I were not leading something or improving something, or right in the middle of politics of some sort) and I am headed for a career in international politics."

Hang in there B ... one day a cure will be found.

gidsek

CoBra(too) (08/10/00; 11:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 34747)
Cafe Alert -
Oil surges on Kuwait/Iraq Tensions

CoBra(too) (08/10/00; 11:19:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 34746)
Cafe Alert -
Oil surges on Kuwait/Iraq Tensions

Peter Asher (8/10/2000; 10:02:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 34745)
20 percent of his holdings, in precious metals
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_sperry_news/20000810_xnspy_pat_puts_m.shtml

ELECTION 2000
Pat puts money
where mouth is
When it comes to investing in New
Economy, Buchanan takes no stock


By Paul Sperry
© 2000 WorldNetDaily.com

WASHINGTON -- Pat Buchanan has been
consistently down-in-the-mouth about the
new, global economy. So consistent, in fact,
that when it comes to investing in it, he's put his more than $1 million where his mouth is.

Federal Election Commission records show
that Buchanan, who this week hopes to earn
the Reform Party nod for president, has sat
out the record run-up in high-tech and
multinational stocks over the past five years.

In fact, Buchanan invests like someone
waiting for a world financial crash.

He's got most of his $1.2
million portfolio tied up in
cash, municipal bonds,
mostly in his home state of
Virginia, and gold and silver
-- as in ounces of bullion,
not shares of mining
concerns. He actually has at least $250,000, or
20 percent of his holdings, in precious metals
stashed away somewhere (see chart).



USAGOLD (8/10/2000; 9:51:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 34744)
Today's Gold Market Report
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
DAILY COMMENTARY

(8/10/00) www.USAGOLD.com . . .Gold showed some signs
of life this morning defying the dreary dog days of summer
seemingly in response to a postive demand report from the World
Gold Council and the markets dealing out a general tone that could
stack as favorable to the yellow metal. The dollar is down hard today
against the euro and Swiss franc. Volatile crude oil is up this
morning as Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, an oil price hawk,
travels to the mid-east for a round of talks with various heads of state
including Saddam Hussein. Tomorrow we have the Producer Price
report to be followed Tuesday by Consumer Prices (though given the
current government propensity to shade economic reports to the
Clinton administration's advantage, we don't expect much in the way
of drama). Nevertheless, the public seems to be internalizing a
growing inflation psychology which is helping demand for the
yellow metal.

A further hint of things to come was apparent in yesterday's Federal
Reserve report that the economy is slowing - - a characterization few
believe at this point but most understand as election year posturing.
One would assume that the Fed is laying groundwork for non-action
at the upcoming Fed meeting. The stock market however is not quite
so sure about what all this means as it meanders this morning
looking for direction.

The gold price is being supported at the current level by physical
buying, but it is cautious buying. Some big players are watching for
a break that would take gold below the $270 mark, where solid
support would likely surface. Others are beginning to cover their
shorts.

The World Gold Council reports that gold demand "continues to hold
steady" -- down just 2% from last years record levels in the second
quarter. The Council reports strong gains in Asia where gold demand
has risen as those economies recover from the 1997 Contagion
disaster. We have reported here in the past our contention that Asian
demand will dominate the market this year as investors burnt by the
currency meltdowns in that part of the world take measures to protect
themselves against a repeat performance. The World Gold Council's
findings seem to vindiate that position with Malaysian demand up
22%, Thailand, up 69% and Taiwan, up 13%. We expect Asian
physical demand to underpin the gold market for some time to come.
As mentioned here previously, this is a good time of year to make a
gold purchase since seasonally it usually marks the low water mark
on the price charts.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. We'll see you here
tomorrow.


We hope you like the addition of Live News to this page.
We invite you to visit here frequently to keep up with the news on
gold and the economy. Please e-mail your comments to the
sitemaster@usagold.com.


If you are looking for a source of news, commentary and
analysis on gold and all that affects it, we invite you try a free trial
subscription to our widely read monthly newsletter, News & Views:
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious
Metals. We offer solid commentary in a rapid fire, no-nonsense,
bullet format designed for busy people who want gold related news
and opinion without the unnecessary fluff.

Please call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 or click above to request
News & Views as well as our helpful introductory information
packet for gold investors.

Camel (8/10/2000; 7:28:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 34743)
slow motion train wreck
Someone on this forum once described the current world economic situation as a "slow motion train wreck" and that seems to me to be about the best four word analysis that I have seen so far.The problem for many gold hearts however seems to be that we crave a sort of catastrophic resolution of the issues in which gold will shoot up astronomically overnight and we will all be millionairs.

As an example take the situation with oil. Many of the analysts that study depletion rates for oil are now saying that world oil production is likely to peak around 2008. I personally have no way of knowing weither this is true or not. Some insist that the more accurate date is 2020, some say longer, but the most common figure I am reading puts the date at 2008, about 7 years away .While in the grand scheme of things this is just a nano-second in the realm of investment planning it is quite a long time out.

What we seem to be witnessing now is a historic repricing of oil upwards, that seems at least for the time being to be contained within the $ 25- 40 price range. How long this will hold is anybody's guess but it does not seem unreasonable to think that it could hold for another 18 months.

The mechanics of the oil supply- demand -exploration sequence have been stated numerous times and might be summerized as follows. When supplies become constrained the price goes up, as the price goes up more money is spent on exploration, which brings in more supply ,which brings the price back down to a new equillibrium. In general the more easily produced oil is exhausted first and as the price rises then oil that is harder to reach and costs more to produce becomes economically feasable.

So when the price reaches $30 per barrel ,oil that costs $25 per barrel to produce becomes economically feasable. When the price hits $35 per barrel then oil that costs $30 per barrel to produce becomes economically feasable and so on., and in fact we do seem to be seeing fairly substantial new exploration occuring at the present time ,which should bring new supplies on line ,which probably will keep the price of oil from shooting through the roof in the next two or three years. Of course if there is political turmoil somewhere in the oil producing countries then all bets are off.

We have also been told numerous times that the current price of oil at about $28 per barrel is in reality about the same as it was 25 years ago after the rate of inflation of the dollar is factored in over that time period. So in fact the price increases in oil that we have seen so far are really fairly moderate, perhaps explaining why the inflation that everyone has been expecting has not really materialized in a major way.

This is not to say that the Another -FOA scenario that has been developed here over the last couple of years is not true.It simply has not been tested yet.

ORO (8/10/2000; 7:20:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 34742)
Nearing a bottom in gold and silver
Technical indicators are showing a bottom approaching in gold and particularly in silver. Most likely to be reached within Aug and Sep.

Watch silver for the first move.

The first silver action may come as early as next week since COTs are well beyond "normal" extremes of relative positioning, and option expiration should be behind us by then.

Gold should see a serious attack attempted within the coming few weeks, probably within the next two. I expect that to be a buying opportunity at 265 or so (with any luck).

Note the volatility in GCZ0-GCQ0, the premium is jumping all over the place. That means that some are having trouble obtaining gold and some others are scrambling to supply it just in time.

Remember that this year is likely to see over 1500 tonnes in the gold deficit. Fresh sources may be drying up soon.



Black Blade (8/10/2000; 6:36:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 34741)
Hey, this wasn't in the script.....
PGMs rising on NY open. Pt up $3.00, and Pd up $8.00. Yeah, "the other white metals". Time to go to the gym.

Black Blade (8/10/2000; 6:07:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 34740)
"Morning Wakeup Call"
Sources: Yahoo Biz news, AP Newswire, and Bridge news
THE EASTERN FRONT:

Asia Precious Metals Review: Gold trades at US $272-273
By Mari Iwata and Polly Yam, BridgeNews

Tokyo--Aug. 10--Spot gold traded at the range of U.S. $272-273 per ounce for much of the Asian trading on Thursday with physical demand supporting the price, dealers said. As gold stood firm at $272, short-covering may push up the price later in Europe, some predicted. Trading of spot silver, platinum and palladium was very sluggish in Asia.

Black Blade: Yawn

PGM NEWS:

Ford plans to cut costs by switching nine vehicles from expensive palladium to platinum in catalytic converters within the next 12 months.

Black Blade: Good for Pt as Pd supplies are sketchy as best. Russia may provide some Pd concurrently with mining from Norilsk, but after maybe a month of deliveries, they are back to ground zero.

ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF THE NEWS:

CBS Apologizes For Bush Graphic
By Lynn Elber
AP Television Writer
Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2000; 7:39 p.m. EDT

LOS ANGELES –– CBS apologized Wednesday for a violent anti-George W. Bush message that flashed briefly on the screen during the "The Late Late Show with Craig Kilborn" last week. The phrase "Snipers wanted" was shown Friday across footage of Bush accepting his nomination as the Republican presidential candidate at the party's Philadelphia convention. "This graphic, which was not accompanied by any remarks from Mr. Kilborn, should not have been included in the telecast and is not consistent with our broadcast standards," CBS said in a statement. The network called the display "an inappropriate and regrettable graphic," adding that it and program producer Worldwide Pants Inc. "deeply regret this incident." The company said it would take appropriate action. A Bush spokesman said the candidate accepted the apology "Is unfortunate something like that has happened," Bush campaign spokesman Dan Bartlett said from Austin, Texas. "We accept their apology and look forward to seeing the results of their investigation." Worldwide Pants, David Letterman's production company, also produces "Late Show with David Letterman," which airs immediately before Kilborn's daily show. The phrase concerning Bush appeared on the screen during a segment of the show called "In the News," which features photos, video clips and Kilborn's commentary on current events. Kilborn took over in March 1999 as host of "The Late Late Show," which debuted in 1995 as a talk show with host Tom Snyder. A message seeking comment from Kilborn was not immediately returned Wednesday.

Black Blade: I wonder how many calls were received requesting applications. I guess Al Gore will do anything to win.

Meanwhile, S&P Futures are up +1.00, Fair Value +0.98, somewhat neutral. Oil is down a whopping 10 cents to $30.25/bbl. NG is still flirting with all-time highs and could move up and storage inventory concerns. Au is up +$0.90 at $272.20 (good price to accumulate), Ag is unchanged at $4.85 (a decent price), Pt is down -$4.00 at $570.00, and Pd is up +$6.00 at $785.00 on its way toward $800.00 and beyond. Some people have wondered whether Warren Buffett would get cold feet and dump his silver position. Not likely! Warren the great value investor is likely to be quietly accumulating more as before. When asked how long one should an investment, he replied "Forever". He rarely sells, in fact he is the ultimate definition of "Tight-Wad". Silver and Gold are bargains right now. George Soros recently was said to have increased his position in Apex Silver (SIL). That, however, is just a rumor as of now. The Big Billionaire investors still hold a position in PMs. Note that Bill Gates has a 10.3% position in Pan American Silver (PAAS). I don't bet against these players.


wolavka (8/10/2000; 3:32:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 34739)
Bounce
Bought @ 284

Bought @ 277.40

Expect bounce back to 284, if we take it out 289 than 290-91

Be patient, you will win.

ORO (8/10/2000; 3:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 34738)
Bambie - gold manipulation
It was the stated policy of the US up till 1976.

The only difference today is that it is no longer stated.



Topaz (8/10/2000; 3:08:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 34737)
and Bambie.....
Your comment about a "leader" goes to Gold also...

Since 1971 when the US abandoned the practise of honoring International Debt with Gold, the planet has been without a Financial Leader ie No one thing represents the foundation of the Financial System.
This is assumed by most hard asset devotees to be a recipe for eventual Disaster.
Good luck with your ambitions.

Topaz (8/10/2000; 2:43:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 34736)
Tex, Bambie
TEX- Yer CRAZY! ;-)
Bambie- Gold represents the ultimate competition to Fiat, or let's say, Paper Currencies.
All these smart people who wear Suits figured they could control the POG in a slow but sure reduction in value in relation to the US$.
All their mates thought they could too and hopped on the Bandwagon by "shorting" Gold ie:- selling something you don't own.
So there's this big shortfall in the Supply/Demand ratio that, up until the Washington Agreement, was expected to be filled by the Central Banks of the World Leasing/selling into the Physical Market.
The WA limited the flow of Bullion into the Marketplace and it appears those who were not signatories to the Agreement have been pretty well tapped of Supply.
Just a note- Silver is in an even worse predicament!

As you continue your quest you'll find this subject to be the most fasinating/intriguing/frustrating topic on the Planet.
You will also, when you are up to speed, be able to clear a Room of otherwise interested people, in minutes FLAT.<smile>

WELCOME to the World of Goldbuggery.


ORO (8/10/2000; 2:30:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 34735)
Foolish TEX
The attitude you took is that of the trader. Traders are out to do a quick buck. The first rule is to have made your decisions on when to sell well before you bought. As a trader, you would also know that one does not go out into an alternative trading vehicle in order to "make back losses". One goes into an alternative because of conviction of its superiority in providing higher returns more quickly.

The investor buys value in the expectation that "eventually" it will out. That over the life of the investor, the value buy would be a profitable one as the markets recognize it. Of course, the great value could also become a substantially better value. Thus the value investor moves his investments among the best opportunities, investing gradually, and sometimes diversifying.

The traditional role for gold is neither of the above, it is insurance against fiduciary failure. It is the one financial asset that is not a promise (debt, dollars, bank accounts) and is not a hope (equity) for someone else to perform well. It is precisely when debt is not paid in good faith and performance expectations are not met that gold does best.

Buffet said it is only when the tide goes out that you see who was swimming without a bathing suit. Gold is the bathing suit for the swimmers in the financial markets.

Decide as you will, you should first know why you are holding gold.



TEX (8/10/2000; 1:48:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 34734)
$270 is the limit!
OK......I've just about had it.I really can't sit back and watch the price of gold go below $270/oz. Being new to the game, I bought too much at the same and much higher price. SO........it looks like the "paper markets" are going to hang in there and not blow until the general election is over. I'm thinking about taking approximately half of my physical and cash it in. Then, (as I figure it) invest the cash in the market until I make up my losses on physical. In the meantime, it really looks like gold will continue to drop. I'll then begin buying physical back at the lower prices and hopefully get into a decent mix of various physical holdings (at different price per ounce) that will average out over the long run.

Anybody want to call me crazy?

bambie (8/10/2000; 1:39:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 34733)
I told you there would be more questions.
Why is it scary for the price of gold to fall below a certain amount? What does that mean for the economy, what does it mean period?

Sometimes I think being on the gold standard again would not be a half bad idea. I don't fully understand the working of the gold standard in conjunction with inflation. My history teacher did not do a good job answering my questions on the subject and my dad has tried. Maybe someone here could tell me what the advantages and disadvantages would be and how the gold standard works in conjunction with inflation.

My dad stated that he felt the gold market is being manipulated but who is manipulating it? How would holding down the price of gold be profitable politically or financially?

I have decided that the job of the media, newspapers being no exception, is not to publicize or print the news but to censor it. It seems to me that a lot of times we seem to be getting the same side of many stories so what are some good papers, underground or otherwise, that tell the other side of the story, the story we are not being told?

While I do not know that much about the oil situation I do know that among other things, it is affecting the price of gas. I want to understand the oil situation better as well. In the mean time, I suggest, in lue of the recent oil...problems and gas price increases, we all convert our gas burning beasts to propane. I am telling you, it is a lot cheaper, better for the engin, better for the air and if your beast will not pass smog on gas it probably will on propane because it is cleaner burning. In addition, propane is safer than gas, easier of the pocket book and those of us running our gas guzzling beasts (for me a ‘56 Chevy pickup) on propane the oil situation (while important to us all) is, at least, not such a burden on the pocket book.


bambie (8/10/2000; 0:59:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 34732)
Thanx for the education. It will be well worth it in the future.
Thank you all for you patience and thank you for answering my questions. There will be more to come as this sort of thing intrigues me greatly.

I stumbled across this site while looking up info on the Trilateralist Commission. Auspec said something about this being international intrigues and gov't motives.

Yeah, I have a life full of international intrigue and gov't motives ahead of me. <smiles> I want to be the president of the United States on day. If I am not, I think I am meant to lead (don't take that as me thinking too highly of myself, I just can't imagine how I could ever be happy if I were not leading something or improving something, or right in the middle of politics of some sort) and I am headed for a career in international politics. I realize, since I'm not selling my soul to...well, since I'm a free thinker and can be a bit radical for some--probably not for those on this site--I may have a problem but it is all about trying and having a strong leader.

How knows what the future holds. In the mean time I'm finding out what is out there and educating myself on as much as possible. I'm getting a feel for other peoples' beliefs and theories. I appreciate you guys and gals back tracking and answering my questions and hope I won't become too much of a pest with future questions (believe me there will be many.)

SHIFTY (8/10/2000; 0:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 34731)
Bambi
I also would like to welcome you. You came to the right place to learn about GOLD!

$hifty
:)

ORO (8/10/2000; 0:34:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 34730)
Oil page at Mises
http://www.mises.org/oil.asp
Most of the topics covered are critiques of US EPA (i.e. Gore) limiting potential oil supplies on the one hand, and introducing "oxygenates" that make gasoline production more costly. There are articles on the general ignorance of economics among the political class. Also, there is the often repeated observation that in the "mini" oil crisis of today the government has created the crisis but insists that someone else is responsible.

The libertarian economists are expecting that the public will again clamor for additional government intervention.

Today, when I ask people "do you trust politicians?" the answer is a unanimous "no". When I continue to ask "do you believe politicians are corrupt?" the answer is less decisive, but is still a solid "yes".

Then I ask, "then why should you expect the bureaucrats they hire to be any better?", and follow up with "and why should you expect the laws and regulations they pass would be any good?"



Henri (08/10/00; 00:03:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 34729)
Welcome Bambi
Just lurking of late with many tasks on my plate. You will find all you need here in the HOF (Hall of Fame) the Archives (Another Thoughts) and Walking the Gold Trail with FOA. Relax among friends and learn away.



ViewYesterday's Discussion.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

Thursday February 9
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
Site Map - Privacy- Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved