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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/10/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade (11/10/99; 23:55:50MDT - Msg ID:18888)
Cambior press release
Cambior (CBJ:TSE,ME) reported that its hedging program as of November 8 was reduced to gold hedging positions on a total of 1.7 million ounces at an average price of $332/ounce, compared to its September 30 position of 2.7 million ounces at an average price of $318/ounce. Cambior adds that its naked call position was reduced to a total of 1.5 million ounces at an average price of $321/ounce compared to the
total of 1.9 million ounces at an average price of 315/ounce at the end of September. The company believes that the adjusted hedge portfolio should provide significant protection for its cash flow generation, especially if the gold price remains below $300/ounce. (Nov 10/99)

hmmmmmm........


Magician (11/10/99; 23:11:13MDT - Msg ID:18887)
The situation
Greetings all,

It is a good night for me to sit back and assess the markets and I have some stuff unload. So the whole Ashanti situation has been pretty interesting, especially since I myself hold a small portion of their issue. I think that their problems came after the events we really need to concentrate on now. We need to focus on the events that led up to the initial jump in the spot price.

My belief remains that bullion banks have tightened on some new shorts to the market in the recent weeks and added the familiar downdraft pressure that we've known all along. The bullion banks now are feeling the screws tightening however. Lenders are plainly running out. They are dealing in desparation more and more. They are a money tree coming to rot in the trunk as the desparate trades pile up. As a clamoring public, we should get on their case! We should be demanding more transparency in their bookeeping, govt inspection, etc. In doing this, the public can be the merciful husband come to groom their shoddy business back to respectable status.

We can't underestimate the level on which the bullion bank operates. They do enjoy national access to the highest levels of government. It might be hard to imagine where one ends and the other begins. The beast is slippery and powerful. Soon, the bullion banks will become castoffs of countries around the world. It won't matter if they default to most governments, but the agenda has been to wait until sometime after the millenium for this if possible. This now, is untenable with the Chechnya crisis beginning to take on a new threatening shape. It would be nice to convince C.B.'s in some other non US countries to lend to US bullion banks who can generally store in the US C.B. The simple fact is that the bullion bank is a wonderful shill to create a whole industry based around money market leverage. It's the rocket fuel of a boom economy. It will have to collapse, because another simple fact is that no sane CB will actually give up the gold they are storing for their supposed creditors. Thinking now as an American, if the US bullion banks can convince foreign CB's to ship some gold loans to the US, more power to them. But what do we really care about their fate? ;D

They are the market brakes put in place to pressure the gold market with a downward bias as fully as possible. The eventual collapse of privately held bullion banks will cause the release all inhibitions in this market. Hold on for the ride ahead.

Magician

JLV (11/10/99; 22:42:12MDT - Msg ID:18886)
Elevator Guy
All things being equal, you are correct sir.

Things aren't equal though. Yes, having the auction will cause it to be oversold and POG will rise.

Not having the auction will cause POG to rise.

Pretty equal right?

No. Not really.

POG is going up, either way. Long term it's going up.

The BOE sales are extremely unpopular in Britian. It's being called the great gold giveaway. It has turned into a political nightmare -- and minefield-- . It is cannon fodder for the loyal opposition.

The best thing for BOE, would be to cancel the sales entirely. The reason is, because it allows them to KEEP the gold. They may be needing it when the dump the Pound Sterling for the Euro. It also diffuses a rather nasty political situation.

Holding the next auction is a bigger mistake than not holding it. I think they understand that. That is why this rumor was floated.

elevator guy (11/10/99; 22:26:16MDT - Msg ID:18885)
BOE stuff
I think its likely that there will be some kind of press release, stating that the terms of the auction have been amended. And this change will not be anything earthshaking, it will just serve as a kind of smokescreen, so the auction can go on as planned, and they can reap whatever propaganda rewards possible by the threat of increased supply, but at the same time, nnot attract too many bidders, and end up a gazillion times oversubscribed, and create gold excitement.
This way they can continue with the auction, and not appear to be merely manipulating the POG, which would lend credence to GATA's case, and at the same time they could avoid creating a rush on gold.
Put yourself in their shoes. Thats what I would do, if I was one of those "rapists" of the gold world. From that perspective, it doesn't seem like rocket science, and their actions almost seem predictable.

elevator guy (11/10/99; 22:13:13MDT - Msg ID:18884)
BOE Sale
I don't claim to be saying anything new here, and may be parotting other posts, but...

If the last BOE sale did not have the desired result of trashing the gold market, but afterwards gold went up $5.00, then why would the masters of illusion want to try it again? I think they are smart enough to go with what works, and the BOE thing backfired, with producers buying. At $299/oz, how could you go wrong on a buy? The POG 'aint gonna go down, what with the Washington Agreement in place, and the Y2K demand revving up, short supply, etc.

Maybe its a numbers game, where they just try to calculate how high the price will go if they Do have an auction, versus how high the price will go if they DONT have an auction, and go for the lesser of the two options. I mean, wouldn't you, if you were them? You'd just play the numbers, and try to keep the lid on.

ORO (11/10/99; 22:02:52MDT - Msg ID:18883)
Town Crier - Camdessus
Your sharp observations of official mumblespeak were grand - very enlightening. The Camdessus resignation take - change of policy needs new caretakers who can think the "new math".

Thank you.


Al Fulchino (11/10/99; 21:59:49MDT - Msg ID:18882)
Fellow Beesting
Apparently, Handy and Harman and also Englehard have done well. I am not versed in the matter, but it would seem that normal market forces have made these two entities the market standards. If anyone has more to shed I think beesting and I would welcome the info. Also, if normal market forces are not at work, then perhaps it is similar to the DeBeer factor in teh diamond industry. Either way, Beesting and I are ready to fly to Paris. We await further information. Beesting, I will order the wheelbarrels.

beesting (11/10/99; 21:52:02MDT - Msg ID:18881)
@ Al Fulchino #18875
You're right Al,but the point I was trying to make is Paris Gold market is between $10.00 and $14.00 lower than London(close to the same time zone) Couldn't the big players see this, if the numbers are correct,and make a killing?....beesting

beesting (11/10/99; 21:51:25MDT - Msg ID:18880)
@ Al Fulchino
You're right Al,but the point I was trying to make is Paris Gold market is between $10.00 and $14.00 lower than London(close to the same time zone) Couldn't the big players see this, if the numbers are correct,and make a killing?....beesting

JLV (11/10/99; 21:47:30MDT - Msg ID:18879)
Michael J. Kosares
Your honorable USAGOLD host is MK

Goldy Locks Guy (11/10/99; 21:35:45MDT - Msg ID:18878)
MK gold
Hi....I've read several comments referring to MK and buying gold.....Who or what is MK? And do they have better prices on coins?

Thanks...Kevin

Canuck (11/10/99; 21:33:33MDT - Msg ID:18877)
Nervous
I don't know about you folks, but I'm feeling a little excited; a good nervous excited, things are stirring.

IMF, Chairman resigns (won't attempt spelling). Feeling the heat?

$10 rise in POG, in New York?

Rumour of BOE 'non sale'; sometimes these rumors are true.

Oil boiling over?

Y2K ..... T minus 53 days ....

Gold is getting exciting .....Y2K is getting scary. Y2K, IHMO, has the potential to REALLY 'rock the boat'.

Where the hell is FOA??

Canuck (11/10/99; 21:24:59MDT - Msg ID:18876)
Heating oil
Read today in National Post (Financial Post) that potential
rush in a few weeks (ie Dec.) to fill heating tanks (public
warned to fill heating tanks in Dec.) may have impact on
prices.

Al Fulchino (11/10/99; 21:21:20MDT - Msg ID:18875)
beesting re 18864
you *could* buy it in Paris, but to get the numbers 8 and ten prices that you posted you still need to fabricate ..yes?

Canuck (11/10/99; 21:20:05MDT - Msg ID:18874)
Oil...Gold
Good to see oil and gold tracking together today.

beesting (11/10/99; 21:19:47MDT - Msg ID:18873)
From South Africa
http://www.barney.co.za/reuters/nov99/gold9.htm
From above URL:
16 companies produce over half the worlds Gold and account for over 85% of market capitalisation,while the remainder of supply is dug by over 300 companies making up 15% of mining indices.
FWIW.....beesting

Scrappy (11/10/99; 20:54:29MDT - Msg ID:18872)
Whew!
hi, everyone!
Here am I, back from a an hour or two in the Archives. Sure is glittery, in there. All the dust is gold dust. And the wisdom; many thanks to all of you who patiently, gently, try to lead us clueless newbies.

Bluesky, I'm pulling for you. But unless y2k proves a swift and painful demise for the dollar, I doubt one eagle will make a payment next year. This whole currency war is probably going to take a while, unless a 'wildcard' appears. On the bright side, all of the stocking up you've been doing for y2k, will come in just as handy if the country goes into a deep depression, ala 1930's.
I'm not dooming. In fact, it is my opinion, and has been since before I found this site, that we NEED a serious shake-up. I am looking forward to the coming changes.

And I am thanking God-as-I-see-Him, that I followed my instincts, got gold, got on-line, and found this site. God does take care of the ignorant, (Especially the ones that are trying to grow).

Good luck, blue sky. If you find me missing from here, I'll be in the archives, getting caught up. Originally, I started with the 'Important Posts'. I re-started today, with 9/22/98, where I have found some historical gems, indeed. The lights slowly turn on in scrappyville.

Anyone care to join me, there's plenty of room, and the light is good. A clean, well-lighted place, the archives.

Canuck (11/10/99; 20:48:40MDT - Msg ID:18871)
Gold up in New York only
Gold up in New York Nov. 8, 9 and 10th. Up a total of $10.
Flat all the rest of the world, this is different.

Thoughts?

TownCrier (11/10/99; 20:48:21MDT - Msg ID:18870)
After the Close: the GOLDEN VIEW from The Tower
You're probably asking, "Why all the harping yesterday on evaluating comments by central bankers and whatnot?" Because ultimately it pays off if you master the skill. This is the shining example we had in mind. You all certainly recall the now famous announcement of the Washington Agreement (which propelled gold upward by more than $50) in which Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, began with the words, "In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the above institutions make the following statement..." He then went on to explain the five important points of the agreement. George Milling-Stanley of the World Gold Council provides a very keen assessment in remarks he made in an October 6th address:
"...the Council has been aware that some of the biggest holders have for some time been concerned about the impact on the gold price -- and thus on the value of their gold reserves -- of unfounded rumours, and about the use of official gold for speculative purposes. Several of the central bankers involved had said repeatedly they had no intention of selling any of their gold, but they had been saying that as individuals -- and no-one had taken any notice. I think that is what Mr. Duisenberg meant when he said they were making this statement to clarify their intentions."
The lesson here is to take notice of what is being said by whom, and care in what you lightly dismiss. Without too much evaluation you'll know what can be tossed aside as media fodder, and what warants closer scrutiny.

The following two excerpts of comments, when taken together, paint a pretty convincing tale that reaffirms how difficult it is to gamble your way to riches with gold derivatives, even by *experts* working daily in the industry of both mining and finance. Both excerpts are courtesy of the WGC's November Notes & Quotes, reprinted here with their kind permission.

"Gold is now trading at levels where some producers might prefer gold to decline in the very short term, if only to bring some hedges back into the black. That's unfortunate, but such is a byproduct of a good hedging strategy. While I can't/won't comment on any specific company's hedging strategy, I will say that a good hedging strategy protects a company through the down-cycle. Since no one can be absolutely sure when the down-cycle will end it stands to reason that some hedges will almost certainly end up in the red. Ideally, hedges will expire at exactly the time the down-cycle ends. But who among us is so prescient to pinpoint that exact moment?
Let me add that in theory hedging is not supposed to deliver the unusual profits some producers have enjoyed. In foreign exchange markets, which are more efficient, one just doesn't beat the market consistently. Hedging protects against price risk – if against the downside then one is likely to pay with losses on the upside. One can buy puts against the downside, but the cost is a cash payment or a cap on the upside. There ain't no "free lunch", remember. Only in the gold market, where increasing central bank gold supplies kept the lease rate "uneconomically" low, was there anything amounting to a "gift" to hedgers and short-sellers. But that would now appear to be ending with an announced limit on gold leasing activities. In future, gold hedging will deliver losses as well as profits – the sum of which will total about zero over a typical price cycle! (That also follows from the fact that the lease rate will no longer be "artificially" low)." --Gold Monitor, M. Murenbeeld & Associates, October 8, 1999

AND, where miners fail, the banking/dealer sector certainly has no immunity either...

"It may be that the dealers have been extremely short the gold market. In chapter three of the Gold Book Annual 1998 we provided evidence that the dealers have carried net short positions for years. The dealers have denied this vociferously, but discreet inquiries have uncovered numerous instances of such short positions. Because our hypothesis of dealer short positions has met with so much controversy and denial, we have not wanted to press this point. Judging by the recent explosive price action in response to the European announcement on the cessation of net new gold lending, we must now ask whether the dealers have been extremely short by way of carry trades and even naked call options. The dealers have been trying to borrow gold from the central banks outside Europe, the US and the IMF. They are in the best position to know how little additional lending is available from these central banks and how dependent the market is on further European central bank gold lending. The price explosion began immediately after the Sunday night announcement by the Europeans. The size and speed of the price response to this announcement supports the hypothesis that the dealer community – the most alert class of all market participants has been massively short." --Veneroso Associates, October 11, 1999

WALL ST.

Today's PPI report allowed traders to read into it whatever they wanted to see. The overall index fell by 0.1% for October, however, the "core" producer prices (which exclude the often volatile food and energy components) rose by 0.3%, strongly ahead of expectations. You might ask how the core rate managed to register surprisingly higher, given the exclusion of the so-called volitile components. Here's your answer...you may recall that oil relaxed off of its highs through much of October, so the energy component alone (down 1%) was responsible for sizable drag on the overall index. Take note, however, that oil prices are now rebounding in November, so with the "core" PPI as strong as it appears to be, look out next month!

NYSE trading approached a billion shares, the DOW lost over 19 points, and decliners outnumbered advancers 1,623 to 1,399. Those hitting new annual lows totaled 118, while new highs numbered 65. The Nasdaq Composite Index eked out a new record high, gaining nearly 1% volume that exceeded 1.4 billion shares. Advancing stocks edged out decliners by the narrow margin of 2,083 to 1,921.

BUBBLES, then BONDS

Prominant bond fund manager Bill Gross of PimcoFunds was quoted by TheStreet.com with this perspective on the day: "If the Fed were to leave rates unchanged next week many investors would have to question Greenspan's vigilance in preventing the bubble from growing and causing the U.S. economy to overheat. A development that would force the Fed to tighten more aggressively, to the detriment of both the stock and bond market." Its always nice to see them make no bones about the equity markets, particularly OTC issues, being an obvious bubble. Turning to track one of our favorite derivatives, the Chicago Board of Trade offers a Fed Funds futures contract, and as it turns out, the contract on Fed Funds for November "delivery" (heh heh heh...what the heck would you receive as the underlying asset with delivery intentions, a tennis date with Alan Greenspan? Welcome to the world of derivatives.) indicated a rise from 47% to 60% likelihood of the FOMC hiking the rate to 5.5%.

The Fed's morning coupon pass (buying Treasuries outright, which we covered this morning as adding nearly $1 billion in permanent reserves along with another repo operation) not only supplied enough liquidity to the banking system to keep the Fed Funds rate on target, but it also helped push prices higher in general, lending support just in time for the 1 p.m. bidding deadline on the Treasury's $10 billion 10-year note auction. Talk about killing two birds with one stone. Auction results surely would have been weaker, otherwise. As it was, the long bond itself had little to smile about, the price sagging right along with the corners of its mouth, down 7/32 in price to lift the yield to 6.090%. The Treasury will use the settlement of this latest $25 billion refunding auction in the following manner. $4.3 billion will go to retire outstanding government debt, and the remaining $20.7 billion will be used to pay interest to investors. Excuse me, but if you must borrow this money through the issue of Treasuries, how do you effectively retire existing debt? You're simply issuing a new bond to replace an old bond. But that's how it works, folks. There is no end in sight. Gold shines as it does because it doesn't carry this unrelenting burden of ever-growing indebtedness.

The dollar gave up 0.25yen against the Japanese currency to close at ¥104.65/$, while the euro also climbed against the dollar, gaining 0.40 cents to close at $1.0442/€.

GOLD

Gold had a good day, doubling the Nasdaq's performance with a gain of 2%. Spot gold was last quoted in NY at $297.50, up $5.90 over yesterday. We see that Darcy Keith is on the Bridge today, so we'll let her drive this starship for awhile, offering comments as we deem necessary.

NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold up $6.0; others rally too
By Darcy Keith, Bridge News
New York--Nov 10--COMEX Dec gold futures settled up $6.0 at $299.1
after hitting a 2-week high of $299.8 on technicals and options-related
buying interest. Gold lent support to the rest of the precious metals
complex, including to platinum and palladium, both of which hit contract
highs in their active contracts.

Initially, gold got a boost from rumors that the Bank of England may
be looking at a curtailment of its future planned gold auctions. But the
BOE later denied this to Bridge News, reaffirming yet again that it is to
go ahead with its intended auctions of the remaining 75 tonnes it wishes
to sell within the present fiscal year.

[Using our skills to interpret the indications from the BOE, one thing clearly stands out. They originally said they intended to reduce their gold reserves by 415 tonnes under a plan in which 125 tonnes would be auctioned in the first year under the terms we are all familiar with by now. At that juncture, they stated they would evaluate whether the terms should be modified. Of note in the BOE denial of the rumor is that they didn't didn't lump the fate of all the gold into their comment. They only said what was necessary to say...that it intended to follow through on the remaining 75 tonnes. Perhaps they will stop at that point, or perhaps their intentions will be changed earlier....whatever the case, the fate of the unmentioned 290 tonnes was NOT rashly committed to the auction block in this denial.]

But some sources suggested it would not be surprising that such a
decision may be contemplated given political pressures and the low prices
seen at the first 2 auctions. And, they suggest, such a decision by the
BOE would prompt a very negative reaction in the gold market because of
the psychological damage it would inflict.
The Bank of England is currently scheduled to hold its next auction on
Nov 29, and the following one is set for Jan 25, with another set for
March. The auctions are part of an overall strategy to reduce the BOE's
gold holdings by 415 tonnes to an eventual total of 300 tonnes.

[For the record, the first July 6th auction of 25 tonnes (five times oversubscribed) occured near spot price at $261.20 per ounce. The September 21st auction of 25 tonnes was eight times oversubscribed. All successful bidders got their gold at $255.75, a remarkable event given that the spot price prior to the announcement of results was nearly $2 lower...begging the question: why didn't the bidders simply obtain their desired physical gold over the spot counter? At $2 per ounce, that would add up to serious savings. Could it be that they all know that the viability of the spot market is illusory? We mentioned this in the past, but the time seemed right to bring it up again...a warning in advance of the next auction.]

Despite the denial, gold prices were able to maintain the rally, with
options-related buying interest keeping a strong tone in the market.
"We're seeing some delta hedging off the $295 and $300 calls," said
one dealer. COMEX gold, silver, and platinum options expiration is this
Friday.
David Meger, senior metals analyst with Alaron trading, said gold is
seeing considerable volatility ahead of the Dec option expiration.
"There's a whole ton of call options out there. We will be seeing large
swings as people reposition themselves ahead of it," said Meger.
Meger said $290 has proved itself as a "very solid" support in spot
gold, as there is good physical buying below that level.
Gold's early moves this morning was also propelled by short-covering,
fund buying, technicals and the triggering of buy stops, said traders. Buy
stops were triggered at $295.0, $296.5 and $298.0, said traders.
One dealer said gold's technicals are looking positive, referring to
today's move as "a text-book perfect break from a down channel."

"I think the tide has changed in the short term," the dealer said. But
he added that $300 should be stiff resistance and some market participants
are doubtful gold has the ability right now to get above $305 again.
The return to lower lease rates--today at 0.62% for 1-month terms--did
not appear to present much of an obstacle for gold's rally, although
perceptions of a lack of tightness in the physical market may be helping
to cap bullion's advance.

Also providing some support for gold this morning may have been the US
producer price report, which showed a higher-than-expected rise in the
"core" rate of wholesale price inflation, which excludes the volatile food
and energy sectors. The core rate jumped 0.3% against a forecast 0.1%
increase amid higher prices for cars and prescription drugs.

In the news today, the Clinton administration and Republican
congressional leaders are close to an agreement that would allow the IMF
to revalue its gold at market prices as part of a debt relief program for
the world's poorest nations, House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas,
told Bridge News Tuesday.
***
(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.
---
A light day in the Scotia Mocatta branch of the COMEX gold depository saw 2,252 ounces of Eligible gold depart into the fresh Autumn air, leaving COMEX Eligible stock at 90,434 ounces. Registered gold inventory held steady at 857,645 ounces. The November COMEX gold future is basically a non-issue, but for the record, there was no announcement of COMEX delivery intentions today due to tomorrow's observance of Veteran's Day. Open Interest on the December futures fell by 3,290 contracts as 16,131 traded hands throughout the day, leaving 89,538 pairs of participants with crossed fingers.

OIL

There's nothing quite as satisfying as a smooth transition from one topic to the next. In an FWN report from Moscow today, we learn that the Russian government wants to introduce a "golden share" for their remaining stake in the domestic oil giant, Lukoil. Such a golden-share would enable the government to have veto power over any decision by the company's board. German Gref, the deputy property minister, said "The property ministry is considering a possibility of introducing the so-called golden share in Lukoil for the government. Lukoil wants the government to keep its powers and not to sell its whole stake." Right now the government still has 17.6% ownership in Lukoil after selling off a 9% share in October. The DepPropMin said the government may introduce the golden share when it sells a further part of its stake.

That is mentioned for your consideration insofar that it is not inconceivable that governments worldwide would hesitate to fashion some form of "golden-share" on gold mines, whether they were a stakeholder or not. Given an open return to monetary preeminence, declaring various mineral rights on gold yet-to-be-extracted from sovereign soil takes precious little stretch of the imagination. The best bet is to already have your gold in your sovereign palm.

Dept. of Energy data released today confirmed the huge drop in distillate and gasoline product stockpiles reported by API yesterday, but made light of API's 3.1-million-barrel rise for crude by showing only a 400,000 barrel increase. NYMEX crude futures gained as much as $1.02, but settled up 44c at $24.47.
News that non-OPEC member Mexico is pushing to extend the current oil-cut agreement past the original March 31 deadline until Jun 30, 2000 helped traders find the wherewithal to buy more long contracts.

And that's the view from here...after the close.

Just Weight & Measures (11/10/99; 20:41:14MDT - Msg ID:18869)
Gutsy move Blue Sky
. . . . and I certainly hope it pays off for you and me and everyone else on this board who owns physical gold. I've been preaching global economic colapse for at least four years and I've lost a lot of money buying gold over $400/oz & gold calls and watching them expire worthless. Fundamentally I know that we are right. Fiat paper currency systems without a gold back all will eventually collapse like their predecesors. In the early 70's The Hard Money people from the Austrian persuasion could not imagine how our current system could survive. They saw an imminent collapse then, but the system has surprisingly survived. Perhaps Y2K will be a trigger - the pin that pricks the ballon - that precipitates a flight from paper to gold. And perhaps once again we will be surprised by the resiliance or rather the misplaced confidence sheeple continue to place in the paper that so many people call "money". The point I make is that we will be vindicated - the good money will eventually drive out the bad - but we are not quite sure when. This Fiat money system has survived since 1971 and it will not go quietly into that good night. Too much at stake for those in high places and even for us. The transition to a hard money system will likely be painfull.

Get physical gold, not because you think it will go up a whole bunch tomorrow, but because it will hold it's value in the long run. Lets all stop thinking about tomorrow or even next year. Rather think in seventeen year cycles like Mr. Buffet does. What will people value in 2016? Amercian dollars? Perhaps Euros or Yen?

Gold . . . Get A Little More! . . . but not I say on your credit card.

Solomon Weaver (11/10/99; 19:57:18MDT - Msg ID:18868)
buying on credit is buying on margin
Blue Sky and others:

Solution: Bought some gold, and bought the new truck, 86,000 of debt. If y2k is an issue gold will allow me to make my truck payment($1845.00 per month) One Eagle will do nicely.

-------

Oh yes, it would be very nice if Eagles will go up that far...

but remember, in times of massive deflation, the POG can drop dramatically, just not quite as dramatically as other things.

Make sure you have a strategy on how you can pay a few months of the truck while the POG is below $200 (this is not pessimissm, it is only prudence). One great option in this regard is to call the loan company now, while the phones work, tell them that as a trucker you are concerned that y2k might hit your business and ask in advance what their policy will be. Try to negotiate. Try to get the name of the guy who makes the promises. Try to get a letter.

Poor old Solomon.


Rhialto (11/10/99; 19:42:30MDT - Msg ID:18867)
Hill Billy Mitchell
Hmmm. Glad I bought yesterday! Ya gotta get lucky once in a while, right?

beesting (11/10/99; 19:39:31MDT - Msg ID:18866)
@Blue Sky
Sir,you have to lie and cheat on your income taxes just to keep some of the money you earned......beesting

Blue Sky (11/10/99; 19:25:41MDT - Msg ID:18865)
Ross L
Sometimes the bravest are the most foolish, but if they are right(lucky) they are heros.
This past six months has tested my courage. I am a truck owner/operator, one truck, I'm sole driver. I needed to either purchase a new truck or pay an extra $10,000.00 in income taxes. I didn't need a new one, but I also felt I could spend the cash better than the government. I didn't want the extra $50,000 debt leading into Y2K.
Solution: Bought some gold, and bought the new truck, 86,000 of debt. If y2k is an issue gold will allow me to make my truck payment($1845.00 per month) One Eagle will do nicely.
Now do I step to the edge of the cliff? Can I hope for a Golden Glider to ease me down through Blue Skies..
Tomorrow

beesting (11/10/99; 19:16:48MDT - Msg ID:18864)
The real price of GOLD!
http://www.kitco.com/_a/news/2863.htm
From our friends at Kitco:
Wednesday World Gold Prices
Source:Associated Press

1. Hong Kong late: $292.50 up $0.75.
2. London morning fixing: $291.85 up $0.95.
3. London afternoon fixing: $295.75 up $4.85.
4. London late: $295.30 up $4.40.
5. Paris afternoon fixing: $281.48 OFF $0.59.
6. Zurich late afternoon: $294.70 up $4.90.
7. NY Handy & Harman: $295.75 up $5.00.
8. NY Handy & Harman fabricated: $316.45 up $5.35.
9. NY Engelhard: $296.90. up $5.01.
10.NY Engelhard fabricated: $311.75 up $5.27.
Publication date: Nov 10, 1999.

Now lets analyze this together!

Numbers 1-2-3-4-6-7-9 are probably the spot price of mostly paper Gold derivitives.
Number 5 maybe a missprint, maybe derivitives,maybe present cost of physical???? In Paris!
Numbers 8&10 fabricated-means finished product---SOOO this is IMHO the real price of the kind of Gold that I'm interested in--finished product.

Notice the difference in price at the end of the day:
Handy&Harman-$316.45.
Engelhard-$311.75.
A difference of $4.70.
So we can conclude that the Gold that we can hold in our hand right now is worth AROUND $313.00 not the current "SPOT" price.

Gee I could buy,over the internet, 1 ounce of Gold in Paris at $281.48 and sell it in New York,over the internet at $316.45 and pocket $34.97,let my buyer pay shipping.

Am I analyzing this all wrong???....beesting

WilloTheWarthog (11/10/99; 19:00:26MDT - Msg ID:18863)
Aristotle
About those old coins-you can still buy British sovereigns at a very low premium. I've seen them for $75 at $300 gold. Dates ranged from 1913 to 1932.

One advantage of old coins is that they are liquid anywhere in the world. While new US gold is very well known in the US and Canada, older coins are recognized and accepted virtually anywhere. They also wear better than the .999 variety, as they were made with a practical alloy to withstand circulation.

Hill Billy Mitchell (11/10/99; 18:53:02MDT - Msg ID:18862)
Rhialto (11/10/99; 18:28:43MDT - Msg ID:18860)
I was amused about your note about your purchase of Eagles yesterday at a premium of 3%.

My experience. I called for a quote this morning when I first noticed gold beginning to move. The quote was at a premium of 3% over spot. I waited for about 10 minutes to buy. When I called back the quote was @ 4.5% over spot and the spot was up a buck and a half. The 10 minute cost me cost me about $7.00 per coin. I told the broker "man this is tough" He said, "should've bought earlier." I said, oh well, execute, who cares. These prices are rediculously low any way you look at it.

Thought you might be interested as to how quick premiums can change when the dog is barking. It seems that premiums do not move down nearly as quickly when the volatility begins to calm down. Looks to me like the brokers raise the premiums purely as a protective measure. They can't afford to get caught executing orders with out inventory on hand when they might have to fill the order at a loss.

rsjacksr (11/10/99; 18:29:13MDT - Msg ID:18861)
A mystery: If Gold is in such short supply, how is it that we can still get any?
Re: Aristotle, Food for thought
As I think I understand events, the price of gold escalated, not because of supply and demand, but when the Europeans decided (with consent?) to limit gold leasing and sales. Which means they have control of the present pricing schedule. They also didn't attempt to pull the rug out from under us because "WE ARE TO BIG TO FAIL". Which to me means that if gold (future price) gets out of hand, for which we are praying and it threatens our financial house of cards, they will release gold to the markets, if necessary, through a third party. It's in their best interest. It's going to be a long blood letting process. We are on the outside looking in. What we may be seeing is nothing more than a feint, … within a feint …. within a feint . But Hope breeds eternal.

Rhialto (11/10/99; 18:28:43MDT - Msg ID:18860)
Aristotle
I ordered 1 oz eagles yesterday, and the premium is back down to 3% from the 6 recently. I will be interested to see the dates, you may be right. But the premium is down even if the supply may be tighter.

I mildly disagree that holding "paper" is foolish, as you imply. I do think that buying bullion with a credit card is wildly speculative, but buying contracts, options, and stock is not. I realize that the prevailing opinion here is that paper will burn. But that mentality will cause you to freeze up and wreck any short term investment program.
For example, let me assume that as it was proposed about three years ago that paper would burn, and it has not, that we have 1 more year before it burns. Further, assume that I have as much physical as I want. I have additional cash which I am looking for a RETURN in the near future, say 6 months. And finally, I can equally allocate that between stock and futures.
Yesterday, you and I each had $1,500 to do something (the opposite of nothing) with. You bought 5 1 oz eagles, adding to the pile you already had. Your premium was 3% or $45. I bought the Jun00 310 strike call for $1,490, (with a RT commission of say $60) as I posted here last night. Today's increase of $6 in the price of gold means that you made $30 without costs of purchase and sale. The call closed today at $1,900 less RT commission. Further, as has been clearly pointed out here, I could have converted the call to a contract at the close of the market for 100 oz of gold at todays close. That is, my call can be sold for a $410 profit, or rolled to a contract for a $600 profit. All this against a minor decline in the dollar today, which no one but a trader will notice.
I suspect your point is more to the effect that physical relieves the uncertainties of investing. I just wanted to point out that people's objectives may be different but equally valid.

Netking (11/10/99; 18:22:42MDT - Msg ID:18859)
Boldly going where we have been before ...
http://www.fyii.net/cgi-local/chartgen.pl?gc.m
A good sight for golden eyes.

Hill Billy Mitchell (11/10/99; 18:18:57MDT - Msg ID:18858)
Leaning against the wind
I recall reading a fantastic history of the Federal Reserve called "Secrets of the Temple" a few years back. I must dig the book up again.

Mariner Eccles and Charles Volker were the two central figures leading up to the present age of "Greenspan enlightenment".

The great virtue for the FED was that of "leaning against the wind" or applying pressure against the prevailing winds so as to maintain stability in the price of money (interest rates) and stability in the value of money (inflation).

When the FED was so doing there was occasion for a recession intentionally induced to cool things off. The coming recession was often easily predicted if one watched closely and noticed that short term interest rates rose above long term interest rates. I believe it was called an interest rate inversion. Interest rate inversions are abnormal of course and can only happen when someone besides God is tampering with the controls.(note: so also with backwardian moves in the futures markets. It can only happen when someone other than God is tampering with the controls) If the Fed holds short term rates above long term rates for very long a recession invariably occurs.

I have been watching for such a situation for the last few years and have only seen it once (around the time of the Asian mess) The Fed did not hold the short term rates up long and a recession was, in my opinion, averted. I truly believe Greenspan wanted a recession at that time in order to cool things off but things got rather haywire and Greenspan and the powers that be did not have guts enough to follow through. Otherwise LTCM and many other derivatives players would have had their clocks cleaned.

Since that period I have not seen the Fed at any time appear to "lean against the wind." The Fed can only control short interest rates as the big bond players are the ones who set the long term rates. I believe that at the approximate time the LTCM deal went down Greenspan marked his shorts and hasn't the nerve to "lean" any longer.

I said all that to say this. It is very obvious that the bond holders are setting the interest rates and that Greenspan and crowd are and have been behind the curve. When he moves on interest rates it seems to be after the fact. In other words every interest rate move he has made or abstained from making has been not one of choice but one of absolute necessity. The more I think about it the more I am convinced that this has always been the case and that we have not seen any corrective moves since the days of C. Volker.

What happens or doesn't happen next Tuesday will all be after the fact. We had best be watching long bond rates, exchange rates, and oil prices. They will tell us in advance what is really happening to the dollar.

hbm

Rhialto (11/10/99; 17:55:30MDT - Msg ID:18857)
Blue Sky
Thank you - I had forgotten how that worked. Your explanation was great. So that also how more than one bid can be filled. As your example demonstrates, these things could get dicey.

RossL (11/10/99; 17:45:16MDT - Msg ID:18856)
Blue Sky
I thought about doing that credit card buy, since I have these Visa and Mastercards with about $35000 available credit. If I thought the dollar bubble would soon end in a quick death, I would charge up 100 ounces of gold. That would be fun.
However, I'm not that brave. Holding gold that's bought and paid for gives me a good feeling. Having a huge credit card debt doesn't give me warm fuzzy feelings. If the gold price moved slowly I would have to sell off some of the gold. That would not be fun. The total paid for the gold over time could be 400 dollars an ounce. If gold hits $2000 by June, I would consider myself a genius. If gold is $285 in June, my name is mud.
You could consider this as an "option" of sorts. I could hold 100 ounces of gold through the Y2K date rollover and have the option of selling it off if I think the FED will keep things glued together for the time being. That "option" is probably less risky than dealing with the sharks in the COMEX pit.


Blue Sky (11/10/99; 17:16:02MDT - Msg ID:18855)
Rialto Re: auction terms
I sure hope I'm not trying to tell you that which you already know. This will be simplified.
Bids are accepted for quantities desired. All the top priced bids are accepted to a total of 25 tonnes. Then the price of the 25th tonne is set as the price for the 24 tonnes bid above it.
5 ton at $500.00
5 ton at 400.00
5 ton at 390.00
5 ton at 380.00
4 ton at 350.00
1 ton at 285.00
And 10 other bids at $284.00 and lower.

Under this senario all 25 tonnes would sell for $285.00
Now concider, if to guarentee that they get the gold they need to cover, we see a crowd at $350. hoping to buy at $300.00
Got to go Take Care
Blue Sky

Blue Sky (11/10/99; 16:52:28MDT - Msg ID:18854)
Ross L
Yes, I purchased with a credit card, then I put in three 80hr weeks and paid the card off w/o any intrest charge.
The Scott, started a bit of discussion here at the forum, on just this subject. It is possible that I should not have phrased it in that manner, even though it was intended as a compliment and recognition of his action.
With the $8.00 move today it will take more courage to take this gambit. I guess it depends on your end goal, profit or preservation. A bit of both in my case.
For me purchasing from MK was quite a savings, no 5% sale tax, and about $10.00 a coin less than I was paying here in Iowa. The 2% chg for c.card seemed minor.
May any choices made be golden.
Blue Sky


Aristotle (11/10/99; 16:31:01MDT - Msg ID:18853)
Confederatios! Oooooo...Aaaaaaahhh! (like at a fireworks display)
I wonder were they've been and what stories they could tell?

There used to be a phrase "all over such-and-such like white on rice." They tell me it's been replaced: "I'm all over that deal like Aristotle on Gold."

Just taking my turn at holding history and running my life on my terms.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle



Aristotle (11/10/99; 16:10:06MDT - Msg ID:18852)
A mystery: If Gold is in such short supply, how is it that we can still get any?
Mystery solved--The butler did it.
But seriously, anyone who regularly swaps out their cash earnings for Gold knows the answer to this better than anyone. In fact, they hold the key to the answer in their hand. Take a look at those coins, and consider the source.

Take those grand little pre-33's for example. They've been around for a long time, probably stashed away in the vaults of "Old Money" along with the family jewels. It's obvious that the supply on these is not increasing. If you have the good fortune to have a turn at ownership, it is only because the youngsters inherited the estate and are doing what kids do...raising cash by selling the family jewels. Such is the way of life--money changing hands. Isn't that what Gold is for after all, to move into the hands of the savers from the hands of the spenders? One day, you too will spend your Gold savings, or your kids will.

Though I predominantly get the old world coins, I also buy a small fraction of various bullion coins. This is the last key to solving our mystery. A few years ago, almost all of these bullion coins would arrive in the mail bearing a minting year that matched the current year. Whether Philharmonikers, Maples, Nuggets, Krugerrands, or Eagles, it didn't matter. This year, however, I have received very few minted in 1999. I've recently received coins from the 1980's and mid 1990's. Just as with the pre-33's, these coins are being made available by the previous owners. The coins return to the market for a number of reasons: the owner gets a margin call on his stock and needs to raise cash, the owner gets frightened by the prospects of a further drop in price and wants to cut his "losses," or the owner saw this recent jump in price as the perfect opportunity cash in before the price drops again.

A true market only exists through an ever-shifting equilibrium point between willing buyers and sellers. So many typical investors are satisfying what Gold inclinations they do have by buying into leveraged Gold derivatives or mining stocks. That greatly reduces our competition for acquiring this rarest of real assets, and the trickle of Gold being dishoarded has thus far been adequate to feed our needs. Physical trade in the western markets is very thin when compared to the volume of derivatives traded, so the physical sellers have had little choice but to capitulate to the futures price as adjusted for the present time based on interest rates.

So where is the newly mined1999 Gold? Arguably it is largely already destined to be delivered as settlement on Gold loans to those who accumulate in bar form on a large scale. Same holds true for subsequent years of production. Say goodbye to low prices when a buy and hold mentality is more firmly entrenched by further gains in prices. Not only will the physical supply be curtailed, but there will be more willing buyers competing for the Gold that becomes available under the market's terms of equilibrium.

As it stands today, very few of us in the western world have real money (Gold), although through their derivatives, a lot of people think they have something just as good, if not better. Amazing isn't it? Through a long futures contract they bet on the future price of real money (Gold) increasing (which is akin to betting that their dollar currency devalues against real money), and if they can hang tough through their leveraged volatility, when time proves them right they collect their winnings with a payment in devalued currency. How sad that some people live their whole lives without ever once having the satisfaction and peace of mind that comes with taking possession of some of their earnings in real money. They forever bounce around from an I.O.U., to a leveraged contract, to an bond that promises to pay additional credit at some interest rate, to an investment paying (or not paying) I.O.U. dividends with an underlying hope to someday sell it off to a greater fool for a bigger wad of fiat currency with which to leverage into a bet on the price of real money, and so on, generally borrowing more as they go along. Sheeeesh!

Honest work should be rewarded by honest money--even if you have to complete the transaction yourself. With sound money that holds its value, anybody working in a productive capacity through their capable years should have no problem meeting their own retirement needs with their simple savings. The reality that this is not the case surely points to some grave problems with the system, doesn't it?

Thanks for the kind words, Al Fulchino and Scrappy.

Gold. Earn you some. ---Aristotle

SteveH (11/10/99; 15:06:10MDT - Msg ID:18851)
Dec gold now...
$299.90

ORO (11/10/99; 15:04:29MDT - Msg ID:18850)
Trader Vic - Oil COT
Have you followed the oil COT? didn't look too good, but backwardation is (was? didn't recheck) promissing on Brent.

There is a little too much optimism regarding oil prices staying range bound. Unity in OPEC is a much easier thing when the price matters to them - i.e. they are making a last stab at getting that little bit of extra gold at the "discount" price.


USAGOLD (11/10/99; 14:44:40MDT - Msg ID:18849)
El St One -----HELVETIAS & CONFEDERATIOS
I saw that "offer" too and to tell you the truth -- I don't get it. They had a similar offer on the French Angel awhile back.

Just by co-incidence, El, we are making an offer in the upcoming News & Views: For every 25 Helvetia's (selling today for $66), we offer the right but not the obligation (for all our option "crazies" out there) to purchase 5 of the older Confederatios (1883-1896) at $74 today. We have never been able to assemble enough Confederatios (a very attractive coin) to make a general public offer and lucked into this group just yesterday. The Confederatio supply is very limited thus the rationing system. The weight of these coins is .1867 net fine gold. The Helvetias, a very popular item in their own right, were minted from 1896 - 1935.

If anyone has an interest before this goes to our mailing list, call the office and talk to either me or George Cooper. Marie can help you too if you like as well.

The Confederatio is named so for the formation of the modern Swiss state assembled from the confederation of the 25 Cantons.

As always, prices subject to change -- hopefully much higher.

Gold up another $1 in Australia as I go to post........





Trader_vic (11/10/99; 14:37:26MDT - Msg ID:18848)
Hill Billy Mitchell (Trader Vic (POG $360 is your target?)
I'm looking for a retest of the $340 area on this next move up...If it breaks thru that, then $360 is my next resistance level... If we don't get thru the $340 on this next wave up then I would rethink the strength of this move...something that I don't want to do...or don't think that I will have to do...But, you never know.

Trader_vic (11/10/99; 14:28:02MDT - Msg ID:18847)
ORO (11/10/99; 13:35:45MDT - Msg ID:18845)Trader Vic - Oil
ORO thank you for the explanation...I'm long oil now and am looking for higher prices, but like to confirm against others' projections.

Best Regards,

el St.One (11/10/99; 14:25:19MDT - Msg ID:18846)
Where not to buy
Arriving with my latest American Express monthly bill, an offer to buy a Gold Swiss Helvetia (20 franc approx. 1/5 of an ounce) for the price of US $229.00 for one coin. This equals $1145 per oz. Also add in $11.00 S&H

MK how much of that action would like?

I have a bridge for sale......el

ORO (11/10/99; 13:35:45MDT - Msg ID:18845)
Trader Vic - Oil
I am pointing to oil arb opportunity that is just sitting there, I think the $3 spread of yesterday between current WTI and its value relative to Brent is the issue - the trading ops -
Directional - the backwardation indicates prices rising in the near future - so $27 potential is there - perhaps higher -if $25 is broken with a healthy rise - say to 25.50 the same day, I would expect the price to get to about $28-$29.
If you are big enough to fill a tanker, arb the brent to the WTI at an Asian port where distance doesn't weigh in in favor of Brent pricing relative to WTI's refining advantage.

The Stranger (11/10/99; 13:18:08MDT - Msg ID:18844)
Jon
Thanks. Wow, I am flattered that you have remembered my advice these many months.

Yes, I still like Newmont. (I still own and like Japan Webs, too). Newmont was not hedged when I started buying them last year. The hedging that was done this past summer was an unfortunate response on the part of management to the threat of having their bond ratings lowered. As luck would have it, the hedge was placed very near the bottom of the market. Still, what was done was not sufficient, from what management says, to significantly reduce stockholders' exposure to a bull market in gold. I strongly recommend purchase of the shares.

By the way Jon, Newmont is already up 30% year-to-date. Japan Webs is up more than 40%. But both are a fraction of what I think they will be in the next year or so.

Thanks again for honoring me with your question.

Netking (11/10/99; 13:12:49MDT - Msg ID:18843)
Golden Truth
Interesting to say the least Sir. I think we need to watch the opening of Sydney & Hong Kong to see what trend develops, consolidation or retracement.
Perhaps the Aussy's will be melting down & selling off some more of their recently aquired gold world cup(rugby).

megatron (11/10/99; 13:12:31MDT - Msg ID:18842)
dave
as a fellow gold investor I would caution you against whole hog bets on 1 stock, especially a gold junior. I love these babies but unless you watch that 1 for a long time to assess it's range of motion odd's are you'll be in the 'red' for a while. But if you feel(know) it's a good company wait for a drop towards the resistance point and then decide, depending on where it goes from there. Be careful!

Hill Billy Mitchell (11/10/99; 12:57:59MDT - Msg ID:18841)
Trader Vic (POG $360 is your target?)
Please explain

jinx44 (11/10/99; 12:57:48MDT - Msg ID:18840)
Buena Fe
I harbor similar thoughts about the potential for problems to be blamed on y2k. I believe the USG will keep manipulating up to the end of the year. The markets and the dollar will drop after 1/1/00 and it will be blamed on the hoarders and the militias. I expect there to be more staged/allowed bombings ala OKC and Waco to drive the point home to the sheeple.

Anothers' past comments about US currency controls seem quite prescient right now. I think the USG would invoke ML and currency controls to stop the flight from the dollar. I don't hold Anothers' opinion that the USG will never confiscate gold. I think that there are far fewer people holding and understanding gold today than in 1933. That would make it all the more easy to pull and FDR on us. It will be accompanied with patriotic pronouncements to the public.

Several articles about oil and gas infrastructure and the power grid have recently circulated on known sites predicting the kinds of failure and troubles that the more hardcore have been saying for a year or more. The USG and their media organs have really done a superb job in keeping everyone asleep about this. I wonder just how long the ECU and the rest of the known world will play "hands off" with the US? When is enough, enough?? Gold and euros sound pretty good right now--maybe a few barrels of 92 octane too.

Golden Truth (11/10/99; 12:54:02MDT - Msg ID:18839)
GOLD IS UP $5.90 BUT FOR HOW LONG?
It's a long night and GOLD will be beaten down tonight.
You can set your watch by it, something really big has to change before this stops.
Other wise it's business as usual. Boy i hope i,am wrong!
G.T

Dave (11/10/99; 12:33:13MDT - Msg ID:18838)
Mining Stocks, Physical, or Credit
I am a novice gold investor and have a question of someone much wiser.

Last Dec-Jan, as I came became aware of Y2K and the inevitable increase in POG, I bought about $30,000 in miscellaneous denomination gold eagles and junk silver on visa. I can afford and justify the 9.9% interest for the piece of mind PM in my concealed safe gives me.

During this past year, I've been somewhat disappointed (but not discouraged) that this actually turned out to be a paper loss as gold crept down toward $250 and then back to about where I originally bought. In March, I was going to buy/hold another $10k of physical gold instead of retiring some of the visa debt, but was talked into buying some gold mining stock mutual funds (Mercury Mining, MGDCX). I am aware mining stocks are usually more volatile than spot gold, and MGDCX has gained about 10% in the last two months. However, I'm uncertain what to expect if Y2K hits hard on the financial institutions.

Presently, I have a house for sale (investment not primary residence) that I should net about $50,000. With that money, should I:

1. Buy more MGCDX
2. Buy more physical
3. Retire the visas

Assume all other Y2K preparations are complete.


Buena Fe (11/10/99; 12:23:51MDT - Msg ID:18837)
Plausible?
The World CB's want to effect a major shift in world sentimemt towards the US, especially the $, without everybody getting ugly with thier weapons. SOOOO Opec allows Y2K to become a natural supply disruption for several months, which: 1) sends oil through the roof, 2) pops the US credit bubble (stocks/bonds/etc), 3)sends gold et al to the ........ , and 4) helps the Euro to gain necessary acceptance. All the while Opec blames the US for selling them disfunctional critical systems etc.. Although there will be lots of rah rah in the press A HUGE LONGTERM SHIFT IN THE WORLD'S MONETARY FOUNDATION HAS BEEN AFFECTED without a shot being fired!

PS just guessing! (this may be old news to some)

phaedrus (11/10/99; 12:14:15MDT - Msg ID:18836)
crude correction
small discrepancy in that last crude quote

for the record december NYMEX crude now 2489, up 86

$25 before day's end? An hour left...

rsjacksr (11/10/99; 12:07:46MDT - Msg ID:18835)
Y2K
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1029.htm
YGM.... you're not the only one that's nervous.

myego33 (11/10/99; 11:59:45MDT - Msg ID:18834)
after hours
http://www.quoteline.com/irtmecoe.asp
Try this one

phaedrus (11/10/99; 11:58:31MDT - Msg ID:18833)
gold/oil and Warren Buffett article
http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1999/11/22/buf.html

Coinguy, that's the link to the Buffett article.

It's a possibility that this move is related to Friday's expiration of december comex options. If there are some big players positioning themselves to take physical we could see fireworks soon.

Also, in regards to crude, embedded systems could be especially vulnerable to Y2K, making the energy sector as a whole particularly vulnerable to supply disruption problems.

Last for dec gold 29890, up 580

Last for dec crude 2485, up 79

Golden Truth (11/10/99; 11:54:09MDT - Msg ID:18832)
CRUDE AS OIL!
Crude oil up to $25.55 here in "Oh Canada" price is shown on C.T.V Newsnet, here in Calgary.
Was showing over $25/barrel all day yesterday,for crude also.
Yet Bloomberg was showing over a dollar lower so i didn't mention anything.
Anyways as Another said watch the price of oil!

Trader_vic (11/10/99; 11:51:09MDT - Msg ID:18831)
Leorard your answer
http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/crbquote.mhtml

Trader_vic (11/10/99; 11:49:29MDT - Msg ID:18830)
ORO - on Oil
ORO are you suggesting that there will be a squeeze on those short in the future months? Or are you just indicating that $27 or higher is a real possibility?

Thank you.

leonard (11/10/99; 11:46:41MDT - Msg ID:18829)
(No Subject)
i need the site that gives gold price after hrs. thanks

Trader_vic (11/10/99; 11:36:20MDT - Msg ID:18828)
Hill Billy Mitchell - CNBC Comment
Almost all Major Bull markets begin just like this..."I just heard Bob Pisani say, and I quote, "Gold's up about six dollars, but nobody on the street believes there will be a sustained rally". Only if, I was a betting man?!" Nobody believes it until THEY ARE THE LAST ONES ON THE BUS! Obviously, we will need followthru, but with the demand coming in strong during Dec. and Jan. which are golds favorite month, it's like playing on home court and gold has the advantage here...watch the other metals as well...look at Platinum...This should be wave 3 and 360 is my target....

Golden Truth (11/10/99; 11:32:55MDT - Msg ID:18827)
AFRICA,S GOLD OUTPUT LOWEST IN 44 YEARS!
I've not heard anyone ask why GOLD is up?? Did you "thunk"
(think) it was because the shorts were coming clean, not!
Was it because of the P.P.I don't think so?
What i heard on C.T.V Newsnet is that the 3rd quarter report out of Africa said there GOLD production output is the lowest in 44 years.

I think it's prudent that we all stay aware of why the P.O.G rises! so we can stay ahead or at least even with the curve. I've noticed we have become sort of brain washed into allways keying into why the P.O.G drops, but being fairly slow as to find out why its rising. Especially when the P.O.G rises rapidly.

Time to change our thinking and "perceptions" so we can sharpen our skills after all this is the "New GOLD Market"
as never before, yes? So we've all been warned!
Get ready for the P.O.G to explode soon! Buy all the GOLD Bullion you can carry while you still can find some!!!!!!!!!
G.T

Hill Billy Mitchell (11/10/99; 11:27:29MDT - Msg ID:18826)
coinguy
I not only heard Pisani say that, I saw him say that and although he somehow kept a straight face, the tongue in his cheek was apparent.

CoinGuy (11/10/99; 11:24:31MDT - Msg ID:18825)
CNBC
I just heard Bob Pisani say, and I quote, "Gold's up about six dollars, but nobody on the street believes there will be a sustained rally". Only if, I was a betting man?!

Give spot a bone...

Coinguy

P.S. Anyone know where to find that Warren Buffet article?

Jon (11/10/99; 11:14:19MDT - Msg ID:18824)
Message to Stranger re; inflation
Have always found your posts to be the most understandable and enlightening. I well remember your comments that inflation must result due to rapid increase in money supply, and that you were investing in Newmont and Japan Webs. Did you know at the time that Newmont was hedging? Do you still feel positive about Newmont?

ORO (11/10/99; 11:08:34MDT - Msg ID:18823)
TC- oil backwardation
The Brent is $1 above immediate futures.
The WTI normally trades $2 above brent because of its higher quality. It is now nearly $1 below brent, making $27 the probable price had the financial "commercials" not sold forward oil they can't supply. This near 10% arb opportunity is just sitting there. Why? Funds unavailable for lending (Fed has not been adding to permanent reserves for a long time-that uses coupon passes), the rollover of the 3 mo repos will probably increase this.

Rhialto (11/10/99; 11:07:40MDT - Msg ID:18822)
Blue Sky
Sort of the opposite of selling below the market to drive the price down, right? (But I would still try to get some at market before I drove the price up.) Actually, the BOE auction terms were different than a "normal" auction altho I don't know the actual terms.

phaedrus (11/10/99; 11:03:36MDT - Msg ID:18821)
@Gandalf re quotes
Gandalf:

My realtime quotes are for Comex gold and silver, not spot

last for dec gold 29930 up 620

dec silver 514.50 up 5.7

say hello to Frodo and Sam for me



TownCrier (11/10/99; 10:50:40MDT - Msg ID:18820)
Cash price of oil is surging ahead of the futures price
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html
London--Nov 10--Physical Brent crude oil levels continued to move
higher on Wednesday afternoon, with a cargo loading Nov 24-26 done at 98
cents per barrel over cash forward Dec Brent, up 23c on trade Tuesday.
Brent levels have now rocketed by as much as $1.00 per barrel since
Monday, and a Brent cargo now costs over $25.00 per barrel owing to the
rise in differentials and outright prices this week.
The international trading firm has been stockpiling Brent cargoes and
is believed to be shifting the crude out of northwest Europe. Destinations
include China and possibly Poland, according to indications from shipping
fixtures.

In this FWN report (reprinted at USAGOLD by permisssion) we see market behavior that is eerily familiar to the action described by Aristotle during the late 1970s oil crisis--culminating in much higer gold prices. This might be a good time to visit the link above if you haven't before, or refresh your memory through a revisit of this tale of the rush for oil at the Rotterdam port in The Netherlands.

Gandalf the White (11/10/99; 10:50:12MDT - Msg ID:18819)
Help Phaedrus
Please confirm that you are giving us real-time quotes ON the DEC Gold FUTURES and not Spot the Dog !! -- Thanks
<;-)


YGM (11/10/99; 10:41:25MDT - Msg ID:18818)
B.O.E. Rumor
W/Y2k Looming
There's 2 short fuses burning towards the powder keg. Get Physical and soon.-----YGM.

GoGata & Go Gold, Goldbugs will be vindicated and Soon.
Next Stop $375.00 by Nov. 30. IMO.

WilloTheWarthog (11/10/99; 10:18:14MDT - Msg ID:18817)
Camdessus Replacement (German spin)
http://www.BerlinOnline.de/aktuelles/.bin/show.cgi?M=ADN_0441&R=/wirtschaft
10/11/1999, 15:57 o'clock
Stark: German is to
follow Camdessus as IMF boss

Baden-Baden (ADN). The vice-president of the German
Federal Bank, Juergen Stark, supported that a German
the separating general manager of the International
Monetary Fund IMF), Michel Camdessus, follows.
Stark said on Wednesday in the south west
broadcast, it is an unwritten law that the managing
director of the IMF was always a European. After the
long guidance time of the Frenchmen its now a German
at the series. Stark assumed it gives candidates,
who would correspond to the high request of the fund
in Germany. He did not want to call out names however.


phaedrus (11/10/99; 10:12:27MDT - Msg ID:18816)
GOLD CHALLENGING $300 MARK
20 cents away at 12:11 EST

TownCrier (11/10/99; 10:10:45MDT - Msg ID:18815)
Here's the breakdown on the candidates for IMF director...Germany says wants its turn
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991110/xd.html
The French have dominated this position in the past. Confirming yesterday's report, Mr. Trichet has already stepped out of contention.

This article gives a good summary of those in the running, and indicates that selection of the new European director will be seen as an opportunity to more firmly establish the euro's influence on global financial affairs.

Times, they are a changin'... Gold, anyone?

TownCrier (11/10/99; 10:00:47MDT - Msg ID:18814)
Fed adds reserves to banking system: $1.245 billion in 2-day fixed repos, $964 mln via coupon pass
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991110/v5.html
After yesterday's $5.005 billion 72-day fixed-system repo operation, and last Thursday's similar 84-day operation, analysts say the banks now have $26.6 billion on the books. They said the remaining daily add need was about $2-3 billion, and expected a a two-day fixed-term operation--since the bond market is closed for the holiday on Thursday this is essentially the equivalent to an overnight repurchase agreement.

The Fed confirmed that today's operation added $1.245 billion in temporary reserves using two-day fixed-system repurchase agreements for tri-party settlement. The Fed also added $964 million in permanent reserves by buying coupons maturing from December 31, 1999 to April 15, 2000.

Don't you wish gold were so easy to obtain? Oh, wait...at these prices, it is.
:-)

USAGOLD (11/10/99; 9:57:52MDT - Msg ID:18813)
BOE Rumor...
Reuters reports that the BOE is denying it is changing its plans to auction gold. Our sources tell us that the market does not believe BOE.

We have said many times that the British might call off the auctions simply because of the abject failure of the BOE ploy. We'll see if it happens. If BOE does call off the auctions, it will strike a hard blow against the shorts from a psychological point of view. No official sellers. No official lessors. Increasingly it seems the game is up. This could touch off the massive short covering we've warned about.

The Stranger (11/10/99; 9:31:20MDT - Msg ID:18812)
Inflation Update
You can just see the eyebrows going up on Wall Street this morning as the popular wisdom about inflation (there isn't any) starts giving way to reality. Well, excuuuuuuse me, but it is about time.

Shortly after this morning's shocker (and I do mean shocker) of a PPI came out, CNBC interviewed somebody's market strategist who recited the same old mantra about computers and productivity. Obviously, he had rehearsed what he was going to say before going on air. Needless to say, his words fell on deaf ears down in the bond pit.

I can think of a lot of reasons why so many stuck to the disinflation theme for so long, but, once again, this morning that argument fell flat on its face. (And, this time, tobacco and oil were MITIGATING factors). In the end, productivity growth plus real GDP growth didn't match money supply growth. This is the simple calculus behind the current price increases.

Excess liquidity has pressured bonds all year. It has fueled the madness in the Nasdaq, and yes it has even turned around the gold market. And to think, just days ago we were being told the inflation scare was over. In a pig's eye.

Bill (11/10/99; 9:24:51MDT - Msg ID:18811)
BOE cancels sales
Anyone have more info on this. If true, POG can really use this.

phaedrus (11/10/99; 9:15:28MDT - Msg ID:18810)
Hackers Unite
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9911/09/seinfeld.virus.ap/index.html
More problems for users of Microsoft products, this time getting serious

http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9911/09/seinfeld.virus.ap/index.html

USAGOLD (11/10/99; 9:09:17MDT - Msg ID:18809)
Today's Gold Market Report: An Important Y2K Bulletin
MARKET REPORT(11/10/99): Gold bounced higher in the early going
after the Producer Price Index report showed a .3% monthly increase.
This in turn sent the bond market into a funk which then spilled over
into stocks. Gold has been an early beneficiary after an uneventful
night overseas. FWN quotes one broker summing up the tumbling markets in
one word: "Inflation." And inflation could mean a rate hike at the
upcoming November Fed meeting (though we still rate that a low
probability until the first quarter next year)................Headline
at FWN this morning reads: "White House: 90% of US oil and gas companies
Y2K ready". Why does that have opposite the intended effect on me? The
first question that pops into your mind is "OK...which 10% are not
ready?"................Speaking of Y2K the following is a bulletin which
will appear in the upcoming News & Views:
____________________________________________________________

Bulletin

Last Minute Y2K Gold Buyers

December 10,1999 Deadline

We are rushing the December issue of News & Views to you in order to
provide the maximum amount of time to complete last minute Y2K
preparations. To accommodate your year-end needs, we have just completed
special arrangements with our clearing houses for both pre-1933 European
gold coins and bullion gold and silver coins to deliver your orders as
quickly as possible.

Our goal is get your metal to you before the December 31,1999 rollover,
but in order to do that you must contact us before 12/10/99 and place
your order. Orders will be taken under certain strict terms and
conditions which will be outlined when you call. Orders are restricted
to certain approved items only.

The longer you wait, the greater the chances of your delivery date
stretching into January. Don't forget on top of everything else we will
be dealing with the Christmas postal rush. Though many of you are
already prepared, we realize that some may want to make last minute
adjustments and additions. Those of you who have yet to make your Y2K
gold purchase, this is your final opportunity before the clocks clicks
over to Year 2000.

Call 1-800-869-5115 for assistance.
____________________________________________________________

Bridge News reports House Majority Leader Dick Armey revealing this
morning that the Clinton administration and Republican Congressional
leaders have reached agreement on allowing the IMF to value its gold at
market prices..............Cambior announced this morning that they have
bought back one million ounces of their 2.7 million ounce hedging
position. It now holds naked calls amounting to 1.5 million ounces at an
average price of $321, according to company documents. I don't know
whether Cambior stockholders should be relieved or appalled. We'll see
what happens after the hedging experts have had a chance to analyze
Cambior's latest moves........... Bridge News publishes the following
under the banner S.Africa's Chamber of Mines Godsell defends SARB gold
leasing: "Outgoing South African Chamber of Mines president Bobby
Godsell has defended the decision by the South African Reserve Bank
(SARB) to lease 300,000 ounces of its gold reserves, saying attitude was
just as important as actions." ....I would label that remark slightly
arcane and ask Mr. Godsell for some further clarification. I have
nothing but the highest respect for Mr. Godsell who has played a central
role and digging gold out of the doldrums, but, I would think that a
little more information would be in order. What kind of "attitude" are
we referring to here? Which "actions?" I guess what Mr. Godsell means is
that its OK to undermine the price of your country's primary export as
long as you have the right "attitude" about it. This begs an obvious
question the answer to which bears significantly on future South African
central bank activity in the gold market: "What is the proper attitude?"
Giving Mr. Godsell the benefit of a doubt, perhaps he had more to say on
the subject than what Bridge reported. I hope he's not letting SARB off
the hook too easily....... I would say proper penance would be for SARB
to go out and buy an amount of gold in the open market equal to what was
leased to defend the South African gold mining industry.....What say
you, fellow goldmeisters? That's it for today. More tomorrow.

Please call 800-869-5115 (Ask for Mary Conway) if you have an
interest in receiving a trial subscription to our widely read
newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on
the Economy and Precious Metals. Or you can go to our ORDER FORM
and submit your request by E-Mail. You will also receive our
introductory packet on investing in gold.

Gold Tooth (11/10/99; 9:00:48MDT - Msg ID:18808)
Gold Farms
Hi All, greetings and salutations to all the Knights and Ladies of this ever so fine round tabel of discussion and education from a long time lurker, first time poster.

My Gold Tooth was my first purchase of Gold, that was not in the form of a wedding ring.

Question to the forum?
News reports/rumors that farmers world wide are recieving less than their cost of prodution for the produce which we all need. When the banks forclose on the farmers, we lose another valuable resource, the farmer.
The reported average Age of farmers is 57. With no young people even considering farming as a carrer because who in their right mind would work that hard every year and have to dig in their pocket for the pleasure. Who will grow food and will they trade it for less than your Gold? As the price of Gold goes up so then will the price we pay for food also go up?

Talking with my mother last week she tells me that the prarie farmers are talking of Not Planting Crops in the Spring!



RossL (11/10/99; 8:45:58MDT - Msg ID:18807)
Blue Sky

What is the "Scott method" I must have missed it. Buying gold with a credit card?


phaedrus (11/10/99; 8:36:50MDT - Msg ID:18806)
gold up almost 6 bucks, silver up 11 cents
First decent move in the metals in a while.

Nobody get too excited now, let's not jinx it...

Blue Sky (11/10/99; 8:07:57MDT - Msg ID:18805)
Rialto
You once asked, Why would anyone bid above the spot price?
My veiw: If I was a producer, short, or just a buyer in general and wanted to be sure of getting "MY" share of the gold, I would bid $50.00 over the spot price at the BOE auction. Knowing, the price I would pay would be the common price of the auction, if the common price is higher than the spot price, then spot would travel higher to the auction price. What gets interesting in this picture is if this idea is exercised for the entire 25 tonnes. Well, maybe I had better make my bid $75.00 over the spot price.
Is this a "Snowball" senario or what? What if I'm the short that bid at spot?
My question to me is: Do I at this point buy 20 oz before the auction using THE SCOTT's method (which I approve of)?
If this works, I then sell my mining stocks, pay off the ccard, and have my "Life" insurance premiums in hand.
If it backfires, then I sell the coins at minimal loss, or continue to work hard correcting errors I have made in life.
When I say I've got Gold, I mean I have A bit of Gold, compared to everyone I know, I'VE REALLY GOT GOLD.

Many of my people figure that BS doesn't stand for Blue Sky

phaedrus (11/10/99; 8:01:51MDT - Msg ID:18804)
gold up 4 bucks
297 in december at the moment. Bonds still down hard but stockmarket back UP on the day.

Either the bond weakness or the stock strength is phoney. I'm betting it's the stock strength. You can almost hear the mutual fund guys pounding the table refusing to let stocks go down. This is the stuff of which crashes are made.

phaedrus (11/10/99; 7:45:34MDT - Msg ID:18803)
Core PPI up 0.3 percent (correction)
That should read, bonds taking a HIT. Down 20 points now in the december bond contract.

Not far from 10500 level in dow, this support is seen as critical. If we don't break it today, we could break it on Friday if retail numbers are inflationary. If 10500 holds, however, that would make a case for the bulls.

Gold at highs of day now, $294.50.

(I've got real time quotes by the way, so don't be frustrated if your delayed screens aren't showing this.)

phaedrus (11/10/99; 7:41:29MDT - Msg ID:18802)
Core PPI up 0.3 percent
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, up 0.3% as opposed to 0.1% forecast.

Bonds taking a hi, futures down 17. Dow down 70 points.

Precious metals benefiting slightly, silver up about five cents, gold up just under a buck.

nickel62 (11/10/99; 7:33:29MDT - Msg ID:18801)
Thanks
Thank you for your help Black Blade.


nickel62 (11/10/99; 7:33:23MDT - Msg ID:18800)
Thanks
Thank you for your help Black Blade.


Blue Sky (11/10/99; 6:47:12MDT - Msg ID:18799)
Beesting
No, Monfort trucks do not rule..DOT went in and audited Co, They nolonger pay their drivers' tickets. Most all companies are trying very hard to run legal operations. Even my company use to allow us to drop complete runs from our log books to gain extra driving hours. No more, if you want paid, logs, tolls, and fuel receipts had best match. Still run by my old rule "You write the rules and I'll work to beat you using your rules", works for me.

Scrappy
I would not say that I'm set up well. I wish could afford another 20-30 oz of gold. I also wish I were not the Lone Ranger trying to rescue my family. I have one who spent 1700. on Barbie dolls questioning weather I should spend an extra 14.00 on 100lbs of rice. Go figure,,,Ya gotta luv em...and protect em.

Now, I once complained about having to print out a weeks posting at a time (to read on the road) with too much off topic,,,Seems I stirred a bunch off topic.
Well, WORDS FOR LUNCH
Got gold, Need ink.
Larry

Black Blade (11/10/99; 6:43:41MDT - Msg ID:18798)
INCO Ltd.
http://www.incoltd.com/
INCO homepage with recent reports, etc. I did not see any reference to Howard's Pass, but does go into some of Voisey Bay's exploration, labor problems, etc. Did not see any production numbers on by-product PGM's either.

nickel62 (11/10/99; 6:01:22MDT - Msg ID:18797)
Inco Voisey Bay development and Yukon Terr. Howard's Pass Deposit
Can anyone out there shed some light on either of these properties and where they currently stand? I have begun to hear stories about Howards Pass maybe being viable if zinc prices were to rise significantly in any debasement of the US dollar. Anyone got any information on what is going on in this part of the Yukon? Inco voisey Bay seems to be asleep and I would appreciate anyone who could shed some light on its status.

Black Blade (11/10/99; 5:18:41MDT - Msg ID:18796)
Just the Prelim's
s&p futures up +5.50, Au +0.20 at $291.80, and "Horse with no name" (platinum) up $14.00 at $432.00. Shaping up to be an interesting day. PPI due out shortly with expectations of a 0.1 increase. Let the games begin!

SteveH (11/10/99; 04:22:23MDT - Msg ID:18795)
repost
www.kitco.com
Date: Wed Nov 10 1999 04:46
resolute () ID#40778:
Copyright © 1999 resolute/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
On the gold front respected analyst Warwick Grigor's comment out of Europe last night that there are still some 17 billion British pounds at $US320/oz of short positions in the gold market and that there has been a concerted effort to hose down the price below that level to prevent the shorts being squeezed seems to indicate that at some stage there could be an explosive move upwards.

The Bank of England is almost the only "authorised" seller at this stage, since its auctions have been written into the ECB document - said to have continued to be a heavy seller.

The Swiss bank is yet to complete formalities for its sales which are also "authorised


SteveH (11/10/99; 04:14:52MDT - Msg ID:18794)
golden sextant
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary5.html#anchor4076
"Today oil is priced and traded in dollars. But in the Middle East as in India, for Moslems as for Hindus, gold -- not foreign paper -- remains the most trusted measure of wealth. Hence the suggestion for a gold-based Islamic dinar. See www.murabitun.org/WITO/index.html. Averaging over many years, there is a rough equivalence of 20 barrels of oil to one ounce of gold. Thus $20 oil implies $400 gold, or $15 oil, $300 gold. When the gold price is lower than the formula suggests, the oil producer who saves in gold a portion of the price received actually gets more gold. For example, $20 oil at $300 gold means that if 10% of the price is saved in gold, $2 buys one-third more gold at $300 than it would at $400. But at $500 gold, $20 oil would be underpriced in terms of gold, fetching 20% less than it should.

Accordingly, low oil prices that may be tolerable to Middle Eastern oil producers under conditions of relatively low gold prices are unlikely to remain so should gold prices rise for whatever reason. Having for many years thought of gold prices as tracking oil prices, the world may be surprised to find oil prices tracking gold in the future. Indeed, the following October 7, 1998, quote attributed to a former Fed governor appearing on CNN's MoneyLine seems to reflect considerable sensitivity to the oil-gold link: "The Fed has precise control over the price of gold and therefore over commodities such as crude oil. No inflation, therefore no need to raise rates." Note that this statement came not long after Chairman Greenspan's July 1998 assurance to Congress that gold derivatives posed little systemic risk because 'central banks stand ready to lend gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.'"



Black Blade (11/10/99; 03:09:04MDT - Msg ID:18793)
Netking
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
I presume that you were veiwing the Kitco chart. Kitco tends to have glitches quite often. Sometimes you will notice quotes that don't look right since gold trades are in USD and at 5 cent increments. These glitches result in some entertaining banter at times. The huge dive on the graph is just another strange glitch. This happens very often during the Asian trade hours. Much of the time, the graph is corrected later in the day. For a better feed on Au prices when this happens is to check out the above link.

Netking (11/10/99; 02:54:26MDT - Msg ID:18792)
POG
Who knows what happened about 3-00AM N.Y. time with the POG? It looks like when Sydney finished Hong Kong took a dive that that any 'Plunge Protection Team' would be proud of.
With a number of stops in place around the $286 mark I wonder if they are trying to trigger something here. A move below $286 could mean revisiting the $270's "possibly". There is a game of chess going on here friends & this is far from over.

TownCrier (11/10/99; 01:20:07MDT - Msg ID:18791)
Fed's Gramlich mum on US growth ahead of FOMC meeting
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991109/boe.html
Another good example of the manner in which officials deliver their messages, as described in the previous GOLDEN VIEW...building your skills.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Gramlich, in speking to reporters ahead of a speech at St. John's University, declined to comment on the pace of U.S. economic expansion, citing the proximity of the November FOMC meeting on November 16. Fed officials have a self-imposed gag order ahead of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. When asked if the economy might be "slowing around the edges," Gramlich dutifully responded, "No comment. That subject is a little too close to monetary policy."
When asked whether higher wages might spur on consumer price inflation, he said, "Some people accuse us of being against workers earning decent wages. That is not true. We fight inflation."
And when asked about the correlation between low unemployment and the potential for inflation, this Reuters article ties a bow on the lesson by reporting "Gramlich said there are a lot of ways in which the traditional models of forecasting inflation are not working. He did not elaborate."

ax (11/10/99; 01:08:00MDT - Msg ID:18790)
IMF/GOLD
Bridge News reported a short time ago that Congress and the
Clinton Administration are close to a deal to revalue IMF gold.



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