Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis
on the Economy and Precious Metals
This month’s edition of News & Views leads off with a timely reminder about past Octobers:
“October is the month most closely associated with markets going bump in the night – 1907, 1929, 1987, 1997, 2007, 2008. Of all the October surprises, the 1929 crash had the most lasting consequences. Stocks declined 50% in the two months of September and October, 1929. (See chart at the link.) Before it was all over in 1932, stocks dropped a breathtaking 90% and did not return the old high of roughly 380 until the mid-1950s – one-quarter century later. Imagine having a million dollars in stocks at the end of the summer 1929 only to watch your portfolio drop steadily until it was worth $100,000 by 1932. “This bull market has echoes of the late 1920s,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller recently told CNBC. ‘The 1920s is quite a legend that people are often thinking about. I look at 1929 particularly as the end of the roaring ’20s and it ended in a bout of speculation. Between May and September of ’29 the stock market went up over 30 percent in just a few months.'”
From there we delve into a wide-range of topics in short form that we think you will appreciate.
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