DMR–Gold drops with rest of commodities complex, producer prices signal possible inflationary trend


Gold dropped in early trading today in sympathy with the rest of the commodities complex.  Using the Bloomberg Commodity Index as a reference, raw commodities are down 1.25% as the markets attempt to factor in the impact of the latest round of tariff threats and counter-threats.  Gold is down $5 at $1251 and silver is down 10¢ at $15.94. Echoing a theme we raised earlier today (see below), Bloomberg headlines a growing concern that the latest “tariff barrage” will push “China fight to the point of no return.” Meanwhile, the producer price index registered a 3.4% gain over the past 12 months – an indication, when coupled with last month’s 3.1% annualized gain, that an inflationary trend might be in motion.  Tomorrow the  BLS will release the consumer price index report.

Quote of the Day
“If you could go back to 2007 would you really choose these policies again? Had they been used as short-term shock therapy only, the central bankers might have got away with it. As it is they now made our economies more dysfunctional than ever – and, worse, they can’t find a way out. . .They helped get us into this. They are not having much luck getting us out. But our elected governments have still ceded such enormous power over our financial system to them that we have no choice but to listen to their every word – if we want to have a chance of figuring out how the next (inevitable) crisis will play out, that is. Of all the things that have happened since 2007 that, I think, is the one that makes the least sense of all.” – Merryn Somerset Webb, Editor-in-Chief, Money Week

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  Much has been written and said about the lack of volatility in the financial markets over the past couple of years, but the volatility index can change direction abruptly and without notice. A single, negative event can send it soaring. If and when that happens, gold is likely to begin climbing as well as illustrated in the chart. Note how quickly the volatility index bolted higher in the early months of the 2008 financial crisis. Two months later, gold bottomed and began its historic run from the $750 level to nearly $1900 per ounce.

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