Gold is narrowly confined awaiting news out of Jackson Hole. The bias remains to the upside in light of a myriad of political and geopolitical risks that are presently outweighing any economic optimism.
The market seems to want some indication from Yellen as to whether the Fed will force one more rate hike this year regardless of the current risks. The alternative is that the Fed decides the risks are too great, the likelihood of fiscal stimulus has evaporated and hence the tightening cycle is over.
Axios reported yesterday that a top Republican source put the chance of a government shutdown as high as 75%: “The peculiar part is that almost everyone I talk to on the Hill agrees that it is more likely than not.”
U.S. durable goods orders tumbled 6.8% in July, below expectations of -5.7%, versus negative revised +6.4% in June. Aside from the Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi speeches, that’s it on the calendar today.
Yellen’s speech begins at 10:00ET, followed by Draghi at 3:00ET.