Stocks have moved up based on two things—a big earnings recovery and hopes the Trump administration would cut taxes, slash regulations and build big infrastructure projects. The earnings recovery is still intact, but the Trump agenda is floundering amid Congressional gridlock and the investigation of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, which is sucking the oxygen from the room.
…In an economic recovery and bull market that are eight years old, there’s not much room for improvement. I think we’re in the final innings of both. And the S&P 500’s valuation, at 17.5 times projected 2017 earnings, is pretty high.
So when the soft data say buy, buy, buy, and the hard data say not so fast, I’ll trust the hard data. I’m not yet ready to bail on this market, but it’s surely time for caution.