Gold is trading modestly lower, well within the recent range. Price action has been contained to the 1265.01/1245.10 established last Thursday. This consolidation has taken the form of a symmetrical triangle, which is a continuation pattern. The takeaway is that gold should breakout in the direction of the trend . . . which remains positive.
Today’s wounding of former Greek prime minister and ECB VP Lucas Papademos in an Athens bombing is certainly tragic. So too is the overall economic situation there. The latest negotiations to secure the release of the next tranche of bailout funds collapsed and a new deadline of 15-Jun was set.
“Hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations for cash-strapped Greece were dashed again,” reported the AP. “Again” is the operative word here; this all feels very familiar, because it is. Greece has been in this position numerous times since the financial crisis, with their fate being largely decided by distant policymakers at the EU and IMF.
The Greek economy has shrunk by more than a quarter since the crisis and the keepers of the bailout funds want even more concessions. More austerity. As it is, Greece fell back into recession in Q1.
After nearly a decade of perpetual crisis, limping from bailout to bailout, Greek debt remains at €300 bln (179% of GDP). One has to wonder if Greece might be in a far better position had they initiated a Grexit.
That of course was unthinkable at the time, and yet Greece had far more to gain from leaving the EU than the Brits ever did. Will the Greek’s realize this at some point and try and extricate themselves from this seemingly endless cycle? If so, what are the broader European and global implications?