Monthly Archives: October 2016

The Daily Market Report: Gold Consolidates After Second Consecutive Weekly Gain


31-Oct (USAGOLD) — Gold is narrowly confined after ending last week on a positive note; it was the second consecutive weekly gain. Action sto start the week has been relegated to the upper half of Friday’s range.

The Fed starts their 2-day FOMC meeting tomorrow. While it is widely anticipated that the Fed will not make a move on Wednesday, the market will hope for further clarification about the prospects for a December hike.

The market has pretty much bought into the notion that a policy tightening is warranted before year end, but data out today shows the Fed would pretty much have to ignore the absence of inflation to do so. The PCE chain price index rose 0.2% in September, in line with expectations. That leaves the annual rate of inflation at 1.2%, well shy of the Fed’s 2.0% target. This may prompt the Fed to keep their cards close the vest later this week.

Both Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed index disappointed as well. Even with the support of market expectations and last week’s Q3 advance GDP beat, I think a December rate hike is still a long way from a sure-thing.

We also have the October jobs report coming out on Friday. Median expectations are for 174k payroll gains and for the unemployment rate to tick back down to 4.9%. The market as usual wil give the jobs data an inordinate amount of scrutiny.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Dallas Fed index rebounded to -1.5 in Oct, well below expectations of 2.0, vs -3.7 in Sep; 22nd consecutive month of contraction.

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Gold dips as dollar bounces; focus on U.S. election, Fed


31-Oct (Reuters) — Gold dipped on Monday as the dollar rebounded after recent losses, though concerns over the outlook for the U.S. election and Federal Reserve policy kept the metal pinned near the previous session’s three-week high.

The metal hit its highest since Oct. 4 on Friday after the Federal Bureau of Investigation announced another investigation into Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email server while she was secretary of state.

That shook up markets that had priced in a Clinton victory over Republican Donald Trump, prompting losses in stocks and the dollar.

…”People had been presuming the election was a done deal for Clinton,” said Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah. “If this means her lead is reduced, the gold market could benefit from that uncertainty.”

October U.S. payrolls data on Friday will be of great interest this week, he said, while markets are looking for pointers on policy when the Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

“We’re not expecting a rate hike in November, but we’ll be looking at the language,” Dahdah said. “That could be a mover.”

[source]

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Chicago PMI tumbled to 50.6 in Oct, well below expectations of 53.8, vs 54.2 in Sep.

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Morning Snapshot: Gold easier within Friday’s range

31-Oct (USAGOLD) — Gold is consolidating within Friday’s range. The yellow metal is slightly lower within that range with focus squarely on next week’s elections. This week’s FOMC meeting is a slight distraction, as they are unlikely to do anything ahead of said election, although they do have the market buy-in for a December rate hike that they’ve been seeking.

With regard to a rate hike, the Fed is still facing an inflation problem . . . or lack there of. The PCE chain price index — their favored measure of inflation — rose 0.2% in September, in line with expectations. That leaves the annual rate of inflation at 1.2%, well shy of the Fed’s 2.0% target.

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

U.S. personal income +0.3% in Sep, below expectations of +0.4%, vs +0.2% in Aug; PCE +0.5%, in line, vs negative revised -0.1% in Aug (was unch).

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold easier at 1273.25 (-2.40). Silver 17.84 (+0.051). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called better. U.S. 10-year 1.84% (-1 bp).

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Gold jumps to nearly 4-week high on FBI Clinton probe


28-Oct (Reuters) — Gold rose 1 percent to the highest level in nearly four weeks on Friday, extending gains late in the session after the FBI said it will further investigate Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email system.

Just 11 days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, the news shook up the campaign, in which Clinton is the front-runner in opinion polls.

Spot gold was up 0.8 percent at $1,278.38 an ounce by 2:54 p.m. EDT (1854 GMT), after rising 1.3 percent to $1,284.14, the highest since Oct. 4. It is on track to close the week up 0.9 percent.

…”The FBI headlines startled a somnolent gold market, driving bullion a percent higher in a hour on concerns that a late October surprise could suddenly bolster (Donald) Trump’s sagging fortunes,” said Tai Wong, director of base and precious metals trading for BMO Capital Markets in New York.

[source]

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Week in Review (Video) – October 28, 2016

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Posted in USAGOLD TV |

Gold now up more than $12 on the day

28-Oct (USAGOLD) — Recent intraday market volatility — including the gains in gold — are being attributed to news that the FBI is reopening the investigation of Hilary Clinton’s use of a private email server after discovering more emails “that appear to be pertinent.”

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold bolts higher on FBI announcement

Fox: FBI reopens investigation into Clinton e-mail use . . . . “stunning turn of events”

Bloomberg: FBI reopens Clinton e-mail probe less than 2 weeks before vote . .  . . “politically explosive development”

CNBC: Stocks slide after FBI says its probing new Clinton e-mails. . . . .

 

 

 

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold is setting new 3-week highs, despite better than expected advance Q3 GDP. Could be short covering on gold’s resilience.

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