Global trade just saw its sharpest drop since the financial crisis

26-May (BusinessInsider) — How great was the global economy in the first quarter?

We know the US economy was crummy. The revised GDP estimate will likely sink into red mire. Hence the heated proposals these days, including at the Fed, to apply “a second round of seasonal adjustment” that would “correct” the first-quarter GDP estimate, no matter how bad, into positive territory. An elegant way of covering up an unsightly sore.

So was it just a crummy quarter in the US, or was it a global thing, in which case we might have to apply a “second round of” whatever to adjust the global downturn out of the picture?

Because here is the thing: in the first quarter, one of the crucial measures of the global economy – global trade – slumped the most since the Financial Crisis. But ironically, it wasn’t because of the USA.

…This sort of thing isn’t supposed to happen in an expanding, or even a stagnating, global economy

[source]

PG View: I’m sure the Fed is lobbying that the double seasonal adjustment be applied to global data too.

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