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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/4/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) 714 (03/04/01; 23:21:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 49379) @silvercollector @Belgian @Pandagold http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo96/oil.html Silvercollector, sorry that you're not able to link to the website I posted. I'm guessing your running AOL, or perhaps Compuserve, as some other friends on those ISP's have had trouble accessing my homepages (it might be the tilde in the URL). Looks like I might have to set the redirect service up again. Basically, the site consists of a webpage and a "pdf" file, the pdf file consisting of various memorandum from a US government archive regarding financial, and political, arrangements between Aramco and the House of Saud (Saudi king). Although it may be a bit dry for some, the memos are rather revealing of the arrangements at that time. This is what I know on the numbers, and contract arrangements in the 1940's: gold was going for about a $1.10 a barrel on the world oil market at that time (vs. the current $25-30 a barrel range). This oil was explored for and drilled in Saudi Arabia, and then brought to market, by an American conglomeration, Aramco (since nationalized by the Saudis). This was done under an agreement that Aramco would pay the royalty in gold sovereigns (see Mr. Kosares "Buy Gold" page) and the oil was Aramco's. The original royalty payment, negotiated in the 1930's, was 4 gold shillings a barrel, or about 22 cents a barrel. That works out to 153 barrels per ounce of gold, for royalties. This arrangement was renegotiated in 1947, under circumstances and terms too involved to go into much detail here, but it's safe to say royalties composed about 20% of the price of a barrel of oil. On top of that, during WWII, royalty payments were made in dollars, because Aramco could not obtain gold in London as that market was closed and, being an American company, they could not obtain gold bullion in the US due to the Gold Reserve Act, which severely limited the gold trade (Aramco even needed a waver from the US to buy it in London!). So from almost the beginning of the relationship between Aramco and the House of Saud, the King was willing to take US$ for royalty payments pegged to gold. Having said that, in fairness to FOA and Another who have asked us to think not like Westerners, it's easy to see the Arab point of view that they received gold for oil. But that's not the entire picture from the Western point of view, is it? Oil in the ground requires a bit of industry and a lot of work. And the oil markets were not in Arabia. They were in Western Europe, the US, and Japan, by and large. And there, oil has never sold for gold as far as I can tell. It was always US$, British pounds, or more recently in the case of Iran, yen. Now, having said all that, from the above link, we know that current oil consumption is about 70 million barrels a day. Let's see...the math...70 million times times $25 a barrel is $1.75 BILLION a day in oil. Or about $638 billion a year. Now, using the estimate of 120000 tons of above ground gold supply, and being a bit liberal with the figures ($300 an ounce), there's about $1.2 TRILLION in gold around the world. If gold was being used to pay for oil, it would be gone in TWO YEARS! If 20% of the price of oil was being used to pay for royalties in gold, the world's gold supply is gone, into oil coffers, in 10 years. And on top of these numbers, we know from the gold industry that 85% of gold production is going into jewelry. Considering gold production was maybe 3000 tons last year, times 15%, after jewelry, we've got 450 tons of gold left to pay for oil royalties, if we don't count industrial and other demand. By the way, the Saudis were not the only ME oil producer to have such an arrangement. Similar deals were cut in Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran for royalty payments in gold by British conglomerates. Honestly, it seems to me that the oil market long ago outgrew the availability of gold to pay for much of it at all. Perhaps FOA could enlighten us as to just where all this gold is coming from to pay for oil, and maybe shed some light on this rather oblique arrangement he contends is going on. (Wow, I was going to try to be brief.)Belgian, thanks again putting up the numbers on bonds and gold. All the more reason, as you say, to buy gold.Pandagold, see above.Salaam (peace). Chris Powell (03/04/01; 22:49:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 49378) GATA plans Africa gold conference in Durban in May http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/693 Dispatch from GATA Chairman Bill Murphy.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Chris Powell (03/04/01; 22:47:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 49377) AngloGold warned against pursuing Gold Fields http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/692 AngloGold warned formally against bid forGold Fields while the cabal is being exposed.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/04/01; 22:45:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49376) HBM, Cavan Man HBM,I'm a Big Mac fan also and listen to as many of the games as I can. If you were an umpire, whats with the strike zone these days? Can't they read the rule book?Cavan Man,Vern Rapp......do you think he'd get rid of McGwire if he refused to shave his beard? The game isn't the same with respect to the managers. Whitey throwing that punk Templeton into the dugout after flipping off the home crowd. Sadly, those days are long gone.Oh, and in deference to the forum:Rick Ankiel's control = the cabal's future control of POG SHIFTY (03/04/01; 22:38:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 49375) Periodic Ponzi Update PPU http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm Nasdaq 2,117.63 + Dow 10,466.31 = 12,583.94 divide by 2 = 6,291.97 PonziDown 60.23 from last week.ANOTHER ALL TIME PONZI LOW !!Thank you Sir RossL for the link.$hifty Hill Billy Mitchell (03/04/01; 22:30:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 49374) Recession (Al Calls it Retrenchment) Easy money is not here yet. We will know when easy money is here. Easy money will be here when the Fed Funds rate exceeds the 30-year bond rate by at least 300 basis points. We are 300 basis points away from there.All the talk of not knowing whether we are in recession or not is baloney.We are in a down turn that is going to continue to turn down for a good long while.I suggested that the tight money policy would finally put us into a recession. No amount of smoke and mirrors is going to change what we are in for.I have been through three recessions. 1973-1974, 1978-1981, and 1991-1992. I use these dates because those were the time periods when I experienced the full effects of recession in the income-producing period of my life and I have a vivid memory of it. I was defenseless because I was up to my ears in debt.This just happens to be the first one that will not hurt me. Why because I have no debt.The interest rate spreads tell the story. Al has not been able to stem the tide because it is controlled by the moon, not the sun.Some of you out there will remember that I told you that we were going to be in recession about this time. I also said that it would not be mild. I will say it again. It will not be mild and it will not be short-lived.When money is pumped into the pipeline and it does not flow into consumption the money does not liven up the economy. Ask George H. Bush. He lost a presidential election because no one would borrow the re-liquification. I tell you we are in for it.Hunker down. This is no time to get aggressive in business and it is no time to go further into debt, unless of course one plans to default anyway.HBM silvercollector (03/04/01; 21:10:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49373) (No Subject) Mr. Beesting,"The Big Bluff" (49347)Great post. silvercollector (03/04/01; 21:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49372) Response Mr. Galearis,Your earlier post echos my thoughts, not closely, but exactly.My holdings are near equally split between physical and shares. Yes, the shares will be the first to go. No greed factor here, catch a ride and bail out of all paper. Yes, hibernation will be key, extremely low profile.SC silvercollector (03/04/01; 20:47:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 49371) Response Mr. 714,Thanks for your message. In part,"Gold was only used to pay oil royalties to the ruling Arab sheiks and NEVER was oil sold for gold on the open market." So if we cut hairs on the definiton of 'royalities' can we imply that the oil was sold plus gold? Why were royalites paid in gold; why not USD or any other currency? "Sure, there's a minor link between oil and gold -- royalties! That's it. Gold has little else to do with oil."Again playing both sides of the fence, is it possible that Another's discussion of $19 + XXX is merely a number, not exactly that figure. The 'royality' may be a mere 1% or 2%, this cannot be minor given the huge sales in currency terms of oil to gold. The 'tiny' royality would add up to huge amounts of gold. "Let me ask you: If there was a link between the price of oil and the price of gold, why hasn't gold risen?"Oil and gold are not in their usual 20/1 ratio anymore, it does not exist. Another mentioned that.Because of the 'deal' Another suggests; keep gold low for us(them) to accumulate and free flowing oil will continue. Stop the gold flow and we (them) will price gold in terms of oil. The recent (nearly 2 years) rise in POO reflects the overvalued USD. To realize the same bang-for-the-buck oil is twice the price because the dollar is '2' times inflated. "I've posted the above link ...."The link didn't work.Finally,I am new to Another's thoughts. I have been completely stumped by the gold 'wars' and decided to look at it bottom-up for a change. We know that gold is being sold to keep it low (managed price). I think most, if not all of us, can agree to that. We are not completely sure how, when or where. We do not know who is buying. It may not be ultra-important to know HOW the 'sales' or WHEN they occur. It might not even matter WHO is buying. I think it is important to know WHY they are buying. We know or can assume to know WHY they are selling, WHY is WHO buying?Another, IMHO, is completely correct on one major issue. WHEN the WHO stops selling the game is over. I think this issue is difficult to debate.Thoughts?SC Cavan Man (03/04/01; 19:48:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 49370) HBM August Jr. There was a man's man. Agree totally with you. I remember when he fired Vern Rapp in the 70's; there was a press conference from the dugout live. Time has passed me by.Call me a "throwback"....CM Cavan Man (03/04/01; 19:45:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 49369) Hello auspec Good tidings unto you Sir. Old Yeller (03/04/01; 18:15:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 49368) Bad moon rising http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm Wow,I've been checking daily for the next update from this site,excellent research and hard hitting bubble commentary. Check out the thoughts on Japan and the implications for the rest of us at the end of the piece.Ole Greenie appears to have some serious flexing coming up. HOOSIER GOLDBUG (03/04/01; 18:03:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49367) FARFEL STATUS????? Did anybody hear anything about maybe FARFEL'S new bodyguard lighting up FARFEL'S wing of his house and not his wife's???? slingshot (03/04/01; 17:46:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 49366) aunuggets Msg.49362 Cost averaging. Yes, thats right! Cost averaging. One more addition to the equation. Never sell below your get in price to insure profit. Those who brought at $800.00 could do this with a sell price say at $550.00 to cut losses. My opinion of course. Funny, with me if gold goes up I win. If gold goes down, I win again. I think I have a good plan. I do some research. Read this forum. (Thanks you'all) Follow the plan. I really feel like I'm on the ground floor of some special project.Have Fun! Steady as she goes, aunuggets, Steady as she goes! Slingshot Richard, Oregon (03/04/01; 17:20:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 49365) Gandalf Gandalf - lost your emaill address. Email me. Richard Pandagold (03/04/01; 17:06:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 49364) Tree in Forest No I think we should see some movement before this year is out. But there should be a more significant move next year, and beyond.One of the problems, and there are many at the moment, is ifthe Middle East erupts. Another one is the 'dirty tricks brigade' causing trouble with China.America will need something to deflect attention from home and pull the country together if (when) the recession deepens.So I keep one eye cocked in that direction. Something is going to snap somehwere, but just where in the chain, I am not sure. We are living in interesting times. I take it one day at a time. I am not a day trader as such, but will trade in the day if the situation calls for it, and I always keep enough cash in reserve to cover my ass (hopefully), or seize opportunities. What I am looking for is a little volatility, even if it only treds water for a while. At least then we know its alive.Like a good sailor from a seafaring nation I respect the sea and the elements. Hill Billy Mitchell (03/04/01; 16:56:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 49363) SLATT @ # 49353 Sir,Once spent my summers behind home plate. That was before Auggie died. Not the same anymore. I am a Mcguire fan and, I suppose a fair weather fan. That's about it. I am also a Louisville (Denny Crum)fan. Does that count.Respectfully,HBM aunuggets (03/04/01; 16:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 49362) Slingshot...... Something you mentioned earlier hit close to home.... i.e. $325.00 buy in.Although much of my current holdings were obtained in the $260-$280 range (thank God for cost averaging), just suppose...........We "unsophisticated Gold Bugs" buying AU at $325.00 may seem a laugh to some, but what of those running up the credit cards in a similar amount, paying them off at "minimum monthly payments" of some 20% or higer APR, and most likely not even remembering exactly WHAT it was they purchased in the first place ?Think I'll take the $325.00 gold "loss"....... any day ! Tree in the Forest (03/04/01; 16:43:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49361) Pandagold Hi Pandagold. Welcome back. It appears to be your opinion that gold will not make a significant move up until next year. While I do not dismiss the possibility that they could hold things off that long (I was amazed that they held things off this long), this is becoming progressively harder. The recent gold move was due to a liquidity problem on the Comex. They are running out of metal. Of course the Comex could be bailed out just as LTCM was. However, based on FOA, the ECB is content to let the system collapse on its own. If that is their position, it means they are certainly not going to assist Comex though there is some rumor of BIS assistance and of course the BOE is also assisting. They stopped leasing gold long enough to goose up the price so Comex could cover.Theoretically, the US could give its gold to Comex indefinitely. They could use their 8000 tons to hold this off for a very long time. But consider that holding together Comex is not all they must do. They must do all of the following:1)Maintain US stock market indexes indefinitely2)Hold GATA off indefinitely3)Hold major fiat currencies up including the dollar and the yen4)Hold off imminent hedge fund failures5)Hold off Japanese equity derivative problems surfacing,6)Hold up the price of silver (and they don't have silver reserves like they have gold. US silver is gone.)7)Hold off Japanese bank failures which have been held off for more than a decade already and are promising to multiply rapidly if the Nikkei falls below 12,000 which it is in danger of doing now.8)Hold off warAnd this is just a partial list. Now, how much longer do you honestly believe they can hold this mess together? Pandagold (03/04/01; 16:11:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 49360) In case anyone is wondering The last post (no pun intended) to Journeyman was in reference to a posting of some weeks ago. If my memory serves me right, the point being made was how we are used and manipulated by the media.Up until the first world war there was no history of hate between Germany and England. We are both from the same stock, and if we were involved in any battles it was both on the same side.Then suddenly, almost overnight we were taught to hate.But, as that first Christmas of 1914 showed, even though war had been declared, the hate was not there in the common man.Who will we be told to hate the next time?It shows how media, and it was not as advanced then as todayis used to manipulate our thinking and our actions.Control a people's thinking, and you control the people Pandagold (03/04/01; 15:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 49359) Journeyman -Christmas 1914 Wetern Front Remember, this truce was unofficialA truce took place in many areas of the Front from the Belgian front downalong the British Front Line. Lyn Macdonald deals with it her works _1914_and _1915_ AJP Taylor deals with it in _The Illustrated History of WorldWar I_. I think Barbara Tuchman deals with it also in Guns of August. Iwill check some other books I have at home and let you know.Also check/www.pbs.org/greatwar/episodes/stalemate.html#christmasThe Christmas TrucePeter Simkins, Imperial War MuseumGermans would be heard singing "Still Nacht, Heilig Nacht." And the British would respond with a British Christmas carol. In some places food was lobbed over into the opposing trenches. I think on one or two instances, the Germans erected Christmas trees and there was a kind of mutual curiosity and certainly instances of soldiers applauding each other's singing. And in one or two places, on Christmas Day itself, the first curious, slightly headstrong people, perhaps, from both sides poked their heads above the trenches and being made aware that somebody on the other side wasn't going to shoot it off, then clambered cautiously out. Paul Fussell, University of PennsylvaniaThe Christmas Truce was the last twitch of the 19th Century. By that, I mean it was the last public moment in which it was assumed that people were nice. It's the last gesture that human beings are getting better the longer the human race goes on. auspec (03/04/01; 14:46:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 49358) Shifty Thanks Shifty, the sabbatical is nearly over. Tree in the Forest (03/04/01; 14:30:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49357) BAAC Supercycles and Their War Implications http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2001/gif00024.gif Very interesting Kondratiev cycle chart from Bob Bronson of Bronson Capital Markets Research. Have a look at this. Belgian (03/04/01; 14:27:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 49356) Central Banks, the above ground Gold supplier. http://www.bis.org/index.htm @ 714 : Bond Credit Foncier de France 8,5% '94-'04 - EuroAs soon AS the French government announced its withdrawel of state guarantee, the bond dived from 108% to 85%. Panic sales because AAA, changed in A1 and fear of delaying the yearly interest rate (8,5% yield) and repayment of the Bond itself. France has it's share on scandalitis. The state always shows up to back-up with taxpayers money on every scandal. The most recent one is former President Mitterand's son involvement in oil and arms business in Africa. etc..etc...The above BIS-url is a nice starter to communicate your personal concern, about gold-reserves to a lot of Central Banks. From 1980 to 2001. I remember the 1980 period as was it yesterday.Skyrocketing interest rates (14%) and Gold-Flamboyance (850$). Both events against an ever declining stockmarket, where VALUE (shares) were up for sale at mania-low prices. This thrilling event was exactly the diametral opposite as what we are experiencing today !!!!!An unbelievable 21 year expansion of production and services (DowNas) against all time low interest rates (3,5%)and our beloved yellow, 21 year slide to the mania-low of 252$/ounce. In 1980, I wondered each day at what new low, I was going to be able to buy some Value-shares. Did it with shaking hands and sold them much to fast with easy profit.Isn't this something very important to consider seriously and toroughly. In French : plus que ca change, plus que ca reste la meme chose (the more things change, the more they stay the same). Gold lost progressively its place in almost all portfolios over this extended period of 21 years. And as in 1980, for shares, POG is knocking at a solid rock-zone bottom. A natural layer of rocks, where the drilling gets very difficult, altough not impossible. The 1980 share panic and fear, made us recalculate a 100 times again the rock-bottom value of the dramatic undervalued shares (P/E<6+div.>6%)Today we are asking ourselves, who will be able to get gold out of mother earth at a lower price into the nearby future?Isn't this a nice story to contemplate before bedtime ? Journeyman (03/04/01; 14:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49355) Christmas, the Duchess & the Bishop??? My my!! @Pandagold Hi Panda,Yea, it was a bit long. Did the Duchess mind?Your memory is batting 1000. It was indeed I who asked for a reference on the 1914? truce where the soldiers of both sides celebrated together and as a result, were chastised by the "brass."If you have that reference, I would appreciate it greatly.Regards,Journeyman SHIFTY (03/04/01; 14:26:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 49354) Pandagold Total value of all gold Total paper money in the system (?) divide by total above ground gold = ????? POGAny thoughts ?$hifty Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/04/01; 14:22:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 49353) HBM, Cavan Man.........Are you Cardinals fans? SHIFTY (03/04/01; 14:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 49352) auspec Its nice to see you today.$hifty Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/04/01; 14:19:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49351) HBM, The Stranger, Sierra Madre, Belgian, and 714......Thank You! For your response to my post asking about bonds. I appreciate your making the effort. Time for me to consider which harbor to weather out the coming storm. Pandagold (03/04/01; 14:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 49350) Total value of all gold The total value of gold above ground, give and take 50cents either way (joke), is approximately 1 trillion dollars at the current set POG. Just $1 trillion. Yes its a lot of money but compared to paper money in the system, which is increasing daily - it is nothing.Once again TOTAL VALUE OF ALL GOLD! slingshot (03/04/01; 14:03:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 49349) Timing Opinion. Msg. 49344 Orville Goldenbacher "10" My reason being. I jumped in at $325.00 and I am going to run with it even if it drops. Forget about the world and all that statistical information. At $ 325.00 it was a good buy. Why don't others see it? Their up to their butts in debt. Live from payday to payday. Anyway, if you read this forum you learn plenty. Can't learn anything from a dummy. Gold is Cheap! May get Cheaper! Steady as she goes, Mr. O.G.Slingshot P.S. Wait till Joe Sixpack wakes up. Just about the time the price of Gold starts moving upward at a good steady pace. OH! BOY! Tree in the Forest (03/04/01; 13:59:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 49348) Something is coming: from longwaves site A Mass-Correlation, Hyper-Volatility, Illiquidity Event is brewingby Bob Bronson02 March 2001 07:29 UTCSeemingly unrelated capital market events are starting to escalate:gold is moving up,Turkish lira drops one-third,hedge fund failure rumors building,Japanese equity derivative problems surfacing, beesting (03/04/01; 13:52:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 49347) THE BIG BLUFF!!! http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor863944 For many years now we all have been reading over and over again how Gold is obsolete as a form of money and how the Central Banks of the world really want to sell their 32,000 tonnes of Gold which would in turn depress the price of Gold to way below production costs.Lets take a step back and think about this scenario on an international level, because I think it's a big bluff that only the gullible fall for.First, we have the thoughts of Another/Trail Guide/FOA/Sir Aristotle(Part 5 at top of page) and a Mr. Jim Sinclair(Wall St dubbed him Mr.Gold, after 40 years as an insider in the Gold business, he had an article at the mining webb recently which I cannot retrieve right now.)They ALL agree Oil interests play a major roll in POG!Mr. Holtzman recently pointed out that the U.S. with 8140 + tonnes of Gold(***UP 10 TONNES SINCE LAST YEAR!) could totally depress the POG by dumping the Gold all at once on the market, he may be right, but has anyone ever thought about this?The Saud family of Saudi Ariabia in a very short time could very easily "BUY" at current POG "spot"(using paper money) all the Central Bank Gold in the world if they so desired, if you don't believe me do the "$" math on their oil export revenue.Now lets expose the IMF & Central Bank Bluff!Ask your self this, how are the worlds Central Banks "CONTROLLING" the "VALUES" of the worlds paper currencies?Answer:By knowing the approximate amount of "Paper" money issued worldwide, and thereby taking the real supply and demand equation away from what's being used as a medium of exchange, from the users of the "money", the people.(And using a "paper" set of valuations to their own advantage.)The manipulation of a Gold price can only be accomplished by the manipulation of "PAPER" Gold!If the Central Bank Gold was sold to the public,,,,in 8 to 12 years or LESS(when the CB Gold was all sold) the smart ones would use Gold as a medium of exchange worldwide in commerce to totally circumvent the false paper money valuation system, for many many reasons, here is an excellent current example.If your business had recently sold any product to someone in the country of Turkey, would you rather be paid,right now, in Turkish Lira or Gold? If you've been watching the current destruction of the value of the Lira I'm sure your answer would be Gold.So, the bottom line is:Current Central Banking worldwide as we know it, would collapse if the people of the world(especially the USA)would exersize their Constitutional rights and use Gold as a medium of exchange among themselves, the way the framers of the U.S. Constitution intended!Some are already exploring this "NEW" Gold medium of exchange system thru the internet!!! If anyone wants me to elaborate, without using names, with USAGOLDS permission,I will. Thanks for Reading.....beesting. Pandagold (03/04/01; 13:52:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49346) Journeyman Wow that's a long one (as the Duchesse said to the Bishop)Give me time to digest it.(she probably said that too) By the way, was it you that asked me for a reference to the Christmass Truce on the Western Front (1914) some weeks ago? I did get one but could not remember who asked me for one. Pandagold (03/04/01; 13:46:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49345) 714 Arabs, OIl & Gold Forgive me if I haven't grasped fully what you are saying, but I will answer what I believe it to be.The value of gold is what they trust. Gold is the measure of value they get for their oil. Because the supply of gold is limited, and the amount above ground, and below, more or less, is known if only by estimate, it is the only thing which has some stability. Governments can't just print more of at their will.So, when they are guaging what to ask for their oil, and it is currently priced in US dollars, they have to see that the number of dollars they get equates to what they estimateto be the true value of gold ( ie, not what price Rothschilds care to put on it in London.As I have said, these things are not so simple. The two sides have to work together - to a point. The Arabs will go along with holding their price to help overcome some temporary economic problem the west may have. But, eventually they ajust their price to 'make up their books'.To summarise - the true price of gold is their measure, the yardstick. It does not mean they have to have the gold. (20-25 barrels = one ounce gold)Hope this explains it without getting in too deep. I read this many years ago from one or two sources, and I have watched how this works ever since.If they keep pumping more dollars into the economy and holding the POG down - up will go the price of oil - you can bank on it.This is the problem when you try to juggle things without dishing up the right medicine - you create another problem elsewhere.This is also why they have to get the Euro standing on its two feet, so they can let the dollar slide and the gold price rise - or face high oil prices.Sorry, no time to edit hope its readable Orville Goldenbacher (03/04/01; 13:30:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 49344) timing is the key I'd just like to know what people's opinions are on timing.On a scale of 1-10, what do you think about the PRESENT time to buy gold?Is there enough turmoil in the world to make the present time a "10"?Remember, to have good timing you must be a little early before the POG explodes and it is too late.Not to pin anybody down, i'd just like to know what people think. I always think the present is at least a "9.5" so far, i've been a "little" early. I'm always ready to buy a little more au and those 20 Mark coins are looking pretty tempting at the moment.Panda, good to see you back!OG auspec (03/04/01; 13:19:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 49343) Pandagold #49314 Excellent post and advice Sir Pandagold! I especially like the following: "It is only important to know it {gold} is manipulated by people, who descend from people who have been in the gold business for centuries, and control most of it". ENDWould you be kind enough to e-mail me at rtmauspec@hotmail.com, as would like to ask a question unrelated to this forum? Thank you.auspec Journeyman (03/04/01; 13:02:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 49342) Golden gamblers XIV @Pandagold #49314 Sir Panda,Nice to see you back!I would like to reinforce some of the points you made in yourpost #49314.Especailly neophytes here may get the idea that they can simplyenter the gold market, catch the trend and make money speculatingon gold. This idea is not much different from the day-tradermentality, and I'm pretty sure we know a few and what ultimatelyhappened to most of them. Many posters have gotten that day-trader mentality in variousforms, and just lately a few have alluded - - - no, in factspelled out - - - the very disappointing results. One posterpromised his Family Of Eagles down-line gold was going up inshort order. Because he was an honorable man - - - and had atleast one characteristic of a professional gambler, was somewhatprepared to live with the actuality of what he only saw as apossibility, that is, that he could lose. Several others haveposted similar stories here recently.It's not that gold was a bad investment - - - especially if asyou suggest, you're prepared to keep it for awhile - - - it's thetiming, which is just as difficult with gold as it is withstocks, etc. If your profit depends on accurate timing, thenunless you're a real pro, you're almost certainly playing with anegative edge. And stats show even many pros don't do all thatwell.Let me present a simple story, an extension of one I postedyesterday, to illustrate. This is "that insider's story" - -like the one we'll probably never get on the gold game - -because I _was_ an "insider" and I'm willing to talk about it. While not on anywhere near the scale of the gold situation, thisstory serves to demonstrate several principles which may beuseful to gold players.When we were doing the "Computer Gang" - - - betting collegefootball and basketball (see yesterday's post #49274 for a moredetailed description) - - - many of us became individually knownas "wise-guys." Understdandably not only regulers waiting inline with us to make a bet, but the big-time line-makers like LemBanker, etc. wanted to know what we were going to bet. Sometimes a "little guy" in line would ask for a pick. If I wassure he wasn't aware we were "wise-guys," sometimes I'd give hima really good one. Usually anyone even a little bit "in theknow" got disinformation. They didn't do the work, why shouldthey profit? And more to the point, if they got one of ourpicks, they'd immediately tell their friends and partners and theline would move before we got down. That's just the way thingswork in the big city.Toward the end of my involvement with "The Gang," anytime we madebets, observers from other groups put our line together and bythe time we got to the next Vegas book, there were other prosalready in line betting our numbers and by the time we got to thebettng window, the line had changed. We became ringers. At this point, we began to use our reputation to move the linethe way _we_ wanted it to go. We "ringers" would bet the "wrong"side of the game for fairly large stakes and wait a few minutesfor the line to move (we could move the "Vegas Line" which inturn moved the lines all over the country), and then the rest of"The Gang" would "get down" with much more money at a much moreadvantageous number on the "right" side of the game.One real sleeper in all this is the situation the "little guy"finds himself in. Is the pick I gave him any good? How muchshould he bet on it? Let's say I make a mistake and unknown tome, he's a pro. He still doesn't know how strongly that pick isweighted and so what our PERCEIVED percent edge is. This makessizing his bets very iffy. And of course, there's no way he canknow whether I gave him disinformation.But even if I gave him good "intel" and he makes the bet, he canlose - - - because so can we! We don't really know what theoutcome of a particular game will be, even with the most advancedCDC (Control Data Corp.) computers of the period working for us.All even we have is just an "educated guess." He has only aslightly better chance of winning with our single pick than if hegot a pick on the same game from Dumb or Dumber.So "one bet only" no matter what the source of the information,is mostly a gamble. It's the long-run that counts. You have tobet over and over, keep your money in action and often,particularly during the inevitable downward fluctuations, askyouself if your PERCEIVED edge actually exists. Or if somethinghas changed it. And this means also your over-all business equation must includeyour costs of doing business. In sports betting one of our mainexpenses was the cost of placing each bet. This was usually 10%of the bet up-front, and is called "the vig." When you win, youget your 10% back, when you lose, you lose the bet plus the 10%vig, thus, if you're playing an even game overall (win half thetime, lose half), in the long run you lose 5% of your totalaction to the bookie. To break even then, you have to have a 5%edge - - - but who wants to just break even?What's the cost of betting the stock markets? The gold markets? That depends on all sorts of things. How much commission do youpay your bookie, ah, that is, your broker? Do you cut agovernment in on your win? (They aren't usually interested intaking any part of your loss.) Are you beating "inflation" aswell? Etc. Given this business equation, what PERCIEVED edgemust you maintain over the long run to make playing the gameworth-while? Do you have records from which you can calculatethe edge you've been playing with up till now?If you haven't made these calculations or even thought of them,you're not behaving professionally, and if you play "long enough"odds are you will lose. I'd bet on it.I should say that the analogy between sports-betting with playinggold and the stock-markets breaks down somewhat at the point ofsettlement. The sports betting ticket is worth either twice thebet (plus the vig - - which you get back on winning tickets) ornothing. This is more akin to options and other derivativeswhich have an expiration and are "in the money" or worthless atthat time. Even fiat "money" has that zero potential - - -remember the Ecuadorian Sucre. Holding physical gold simplydoesn't have the zero-value downside, and usually, only a smallportion of the perceived downside of any other bet. I would respectfully suggest that:1. The "manipulators," just as "The Computer Gang," don't havethe iron control you seem to imply. Just as Greenspan, etc., theymust count on economic projections, which as we know(particularly those of us who watched Greenspan's testimony tothe Senate Banking Committee) are skewed and are massivelysubject to Yogi's Law and Mises Maxim, namely that the future'shidden. Thus it seems to me that you may over-estimate the degreeto which TPTB can exert control. For example:Secretary of the Treasury Lloyd Bentsen and LauraD'Andrea Tyson of the Council of Economic Advisors bothrefinanced their houses with VARIABLE rate mortgageswhen FIXED rate mortages were at their lowest rate. Ifthey'd known what interest rates were going to do, theycould have saved themselves a lot of money by gettingfixed rate mortgages instead! "Does this make you feelany better about sending your tax dollars toWashington?" -David Brinkley's tag line, ABC This Week withDavid Brinkley, 4 Dec 1994 ~11:59:00 AM EST 2. TPTB, to the extent they DO exert control, would indeed be, asyou suggest, long-time pros. They know folks want to grab theircoat-tails and they know how to use this to their advantage. 3. If you're playing particularly a game with a time limit(options, etc.) and haven't kept track of your previous bets - -- and haven't made a whole bunch of previous bets - - - and don'thave a numerical "perceived edge" calculated, you are most likelyfooling yourself about having a real edge.4. Even if you have a real edge, if you haven't taken the "vig"(commission you pay your broker), taxes, and inflation intoaccount, you may well be playing a losing game.In short, recreational gambling is easy, professional gambling ismuch harder. If you endulge in recreational gambling often, themath says you will probably lose. Which kind of gambling are youdoing?Finally, you can't escape gambling. A bank account is a gamble.So is holding physical gold. The question is, what are thePERCEIVED potential upside and downside? AND what is the melt-down down-side potential of your particular bets?Regards and good luck,Journeyman slingshot (03/04/01; 12:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 49341) Gold, Sell or Buy? I am researching the phenomenon of the Gold Bugs, Buy or Sell position. Due to the limitations of financial backing, research has been of Spartan gathering capabilities for information. Just a few points of interest. Again for a second time, some are selling Gold and others are buying. When spot of Gold was $267.00 A person sold six Gold Eagles to PM dealer and by the end of the day dealer had resold all the Eagles.Did the man sell at what he thought was a good price, or just to pay bills? The other thing of interest is besides myself, there was someone else buying, A 2 to 1 or better ratio to buy. Also, this dealer sells at a lower price than the others and may account for him being short of 1 Oz Gold Eagles. Like my other post his display was mostly 1/4 and 1/10th in small quantities. The 1 oz seems to be the big mover. I just have to be positive about this. It seems that2001 coins are in quanity and pre 2001 date are available only when they are sold to PM dealers. A snap shot in the life of a Gold Bug. Very Interesting!Slingshot Hill Billy Mitchell (03/04/01; 12:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 49340) Correction of last post Meant to say, "Not necessary". lamprey_65 (03/04/01; 12:27:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 49339) Also... I'm showing breakout price has fallen to $265 while support is at $258.25 --- prices are approximations only.Compression continues. Hill Billy Mitchell (03/04/01; 12:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 49338) Cavan Man @ # 49334 Sir,Perhaps, next month. I will give you more advanced notice and some options of when. It would be nice to have our wives along, but necessary.I look forward.Very respectfully,HBM lamprey_65 (03/04/01; 12:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49337) Gold Weekly Unfortunately, I have bad data on my POG charts, so no link.Two weeks ago we had a breakdown below support -- this was reversed the following week as the price recovered within the wedge pattern. Last week we had a breakout above the wedge which did not confirm (failed breakout) by the end of the week. So, the torture continues.I'm still looking for a confirmed breakout before April...gold shares are remaining strong with each fall in POG and lease rates remain on an uptrend (watch those lease rates). Also, Indian buying should start to kick in strongly by next month. Hill Billy Mitchell (03/04/01; 12:14:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 49336) Clint H @ # 49330 Interest rate cuts, who does it hurt?Sir,Good question. I will offer another angle which in no way diminishes the need for answers to your question.Your post prompts me to ask, what rate cuts?When the Fed lowers the discount rate the member banks have the privilege of borrowing at the forbidden window at a lower cost. This sort of rate cut is rather insignificant in the general scheme unless a bank is in great immediate need for funds which it cannot obtain elsewhere, in which case the member bank will have its leash shortened considerably.The talk of interest rate cuts by the Fed are not that at all. What they are talking about is fiat injections which will result in an increase in available cash for overnight lending which will thus result in lower Fed Funds rates.The whole idea is increased liquidity, not reduced interest rates, which are only a result of increased fiat supply. What we hear all over is the great fanfare that rates need to go down. It sounds so good to the sheeple. While increased liquidity will in the short run, reduce interest rates (generally short-term interest rates only), this increased liquidity will, in the long run, increase interest rates because the bond buyers will need more return on their investments in order to cover the cost of the devaluation of the money which they have loaned out.Who will benefit from increased liquidity?Answer: Those to whom the short-term money flows, who lend it short.Who will be harmed by the increased liquidity? Answer: Those from whom the money flows, who lend it long.Very respectfully,HBMPS: For whom is the bell tolling? It is tolling for all disproportionate fiat holders. Not only in the long-run are we all dead, but in the long-run we will all be broke, that is of course, if a disproportionate share of our assets are denominated in fiat. 714 (03/04/01; 12:00:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 49335) Thanks, Pandagold... ...I don't know if I buy your theory or what evidence you have of it, but I've been unable to find any evidence whatsoever of an oil-for-gold trade outside of the royalties paid by oil companies to the sheiks. Interestingly enough, there was no currency issued in the Arabian oil countries until about the 1940's, and it was gold coins from various countries, particularly British sovereigns, that served that function. In fact, in the '40's the US minted silver riyals in a loan arrangement so the Saudis would have their own currency. You are probably correct that the Arabs don't trust any money as much as gold, but they obviously have accepted all kinds of paper money through the years, probably spending it as fast as it comes in on various tangible investments. Their ethic regarding money, and particularly interest, is far different than the West's. But I doubt there's enough gold in the world to carry the oil trade (that's been kicked around here too) and there were obvious problems during WWII, when the LBMA was shut down, in paying the royalties in gold. The House of Saud was more than happy to accept US$, at least for a time, until 1947, when the royalty payments were renegotiated. I would be grateful if you had any more background info to ad to this oil-for-gold trade. Do you know of any specific oil deals that were done for gold, other than these royalties? I tried to get FOA to address this issue, but he dismissively said there were many versions of the 1947 negotiations, then offered no details. None. Obviously, I think the background of these issues is very important in helping to make informed decisions.Thanks. BBML. Cavan Man (03/04/01; 11:57:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49334) HBM Regrets due to a dinner engagement but let us keep trying--perhaps early next month. Thanks....CM Peter Asher (03/04/01; 11:49:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49333) Clint H msg#: 49330) The MAJOR benefit from lower interest rates is that producers keep more of their earnings and the suppliers of passive capital receive less.Probably 999.99% of the stock market is the reimbursement of previously invested direct capitalization. Modern society has evolved into holding a viewpoint of entitlement to getting wealthy via the labor of others by "Putting their money to work." While it is certainly ethical and desirable to make a profit on forgoing spending power earned, a free-market reduction of that profit is a net benefit to the society as a whole. If you really put your money IN the bank for safe keeping, maybe they would charge you for the service..All the much bemoaned credit excess of the Fiat money system are rooted in the quest for wealth transfer without production in kind.As I said a year ago, much to FOA's delight; (And this also holds true to some extent for bonds and savings) "Those who buy stocks in the aftermarket, have abrogated their responsibility as investors, and they do so at their peril." Pandagold (03/04/01; 11:21:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 49332) 714 Arab oil producers Gold and Oil There is definitely a relationship between oil and gold, and I covered it at some length in a past post.In it I stated that the Arabs sell oil for gold. Some of the readers, although if they had really read my posting properly, would have understood that I was not saying that they actually took physical gold at the time of sale, challenged my statement - one saying that they sold it for 'money'.To the Arab oil producers - gold is the only 'real' money they trust. They have a simple yardstick - one ounce of gold equals about 20-25 barrels of oil.If they think the dollar is overvalued (as it is at present) they raise their oil price in dollars - in other words they want more dollars so that they are getting what THEY feel an ounce of gold should be worth.They accommdate their trading partners up to a point with their economic problems so may hold off for a while if asked, but eventually they get it back on track.So to answer your question - that is why oil is going up BECAUSE GOLD ISN'T and the dollar is inflated.This is a simple explanation, but nothing in the financial world is ever simple. It's enough for me to my sums on, and act upon.I work it that they (OPEC) see gold at about $600 with the US dollar true value at this point of time. I don't think they are far out - in fact, I think they are spot on. SHIFTY (03/04/01; 11:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 49331) Correction SHIFTY (03/03/01; 21:23:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 49304)It should read : Do you think that FARFEL is SLEEPING with the fishes?not swimming with the fishes.LOL, It was getting late.$hifty Clint H (03/04/01; 10:58:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 49330) Interest rate cuts, who does it hurt? If you own a company that owes 12 billion dollars will a 1% interest rate cut help?If you own a company that is making a profit will a cut add to the bottom line?Who will it hurt? How about;1. Grandmother when she renews her CD's.2. Companies who invest their spare short term cash in the money markets. Some just overnight.3. Insurance companies that depend on earning interest on premiums to make a profit. Why have many insurance companies in Japan gone under?4. Your local bank that invests in the local economy. Also owned by local investors.The list goes on. Anyone care to list some major benefits? 714 (03/04/01; 10:36:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 49329) silvercollector... ...one more thing real quick. I don't think the oil-producing states are just sitting on their debt instruments. They have used the proceeds to invest around the world. Two years ago, some friends were involved in negotiating a $50 million deal for a short-line railroad in Indiana. I asked where the money was coming from for the deal and was told it would be financed by insurance company money and Arab oil money. Fwiw.p.s.--Any research on the ME oil business will turn up the fact Arabs, like the rest of us, will accept FRNs anytime if the price is right. 714 (03/04/01; 10:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49328) Thanks, HBM... http://europa.eu.int/euro/html/calendrier5.html?lang=5 ...I needed that perspective. I'll keep it in mind as the euro unfolds before us this next year. In fact, by this time next year, the euro will be circulating! 714 (03/04/01; 10:19:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49327) silvercollector re: Another http://home.att.net/~strat.gt/secret_history I bought into the "Another" phenomenom when he was all the rage at Kitco back in '97 and '98. And yes, he's an intriguing guy. BUT! Last year, in a fit of disillusion with my gold investments, I returned to his old Kitco posts and began to research what he was saying so as to verify what might be happening in the gold market. And as a result, I found the above info on the oil-for-gold trade, as he called it, and uploaded it to a website. And the facts appear to be quite different than he was portraying. Gold was only used to pay oil royalties to the ruling Arab sheiks and NEVER was oil sold for gold on the open market. Sure, there's a minor link between oil and gold -- royalties! That's it. Gold has little else to do with oil. Let me ask you: If there was a link between the price of oil and the price of gold, why hasn't gold risen? I've posted the above link several times since last September and the typical response I get is that that's history, or could I write a summary. It seems goldbugs are as lazy as the rest of humanity and few seem to choose to do their homework on background issues, settling instead for a few paragraphs of platitudes. It may well be history, but more than that, it is relationship.Don't get me wrong. I do think Another's heart was in the right place, but I don't think investors, as a general rule, are going to be attracted to investing in gold because of some fringe theories or manipulation mantras. Yes, I think gold's been manipulated (what isn't these days!), but that is a minor issue in the face of other issues affecting the industry. Particularly troubling is the fact over 80% of annual gold production goes into the jewelry industry, which is indicative of a disinterest on the part of the investing community. Throw in a huge jump in production in the last twenty years, along the trend towards demonitization, and you have a bear market. Fwiw, my religion is based on knowledge, not faith. I have NO faith in gold. I only possess the knowledge, as Alan Greenspan so aptly put it two years ago, that gold remains the payment of last resort. p.s.--And I probably differ from most posters here in that I think the WGC is doing a bang-up job. You ever been to there website and read through their docs? USAGOLD (03/04/01; 10:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 49326) Lawrence Kudlow Interview: Substance Abuse, the Controversial, Analyst and the Gold Dealer Who Became a Priest http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3aa1e6e306c7.htm I ran into this researching this month's News & Views. This is a good story for a Sunday morning. Since it involves a gold dealer, I remain on subject. (smile)P.S. My purpose here is not to go off into a discussion of faith. Just provide a link to those with an interest. Mr.Kudlow receives much criticism for his gold views here and elsewhere, and I have to say that sometimes I have problems with him even though he keeps gold in the public venue (if not always with an acceptable spin). I thought the interview might shed some light on a complicated, sometimes brilliant, always controversial opinion-maker. Hill Billy Mitchell (03/04/01; 10:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 49325) @ Cavan Man SirI plan to go to Denny's (I 270 and Rock Road) for a cup of coffee later on this evening. I will post the time when I can work it out with my wife. Should you have the time, just an hour or so for introductories (sp) I would be glad to buy you a cup.Will post in a little while to give you a time and a way to recognize me when you arrive.If this is not a convenient day we can work it out another day, as I am in the area for a day or two during the first week of each month.Very respectfully,HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (03/04/01; 09:53:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 49324) 714 @ # 49316 Sir,I have assumed from early on that the individual central banks within the European Union would be for show only. It appears to be patterned after the Federal Reserve System, 12 regional reserve banks. Contrary to what is perceived, there is only one central bank in the US where "absolute" power resides. The power is exercised by those who control the Central Bank in New York, which is the true seat of the power. Those who control the board of governors are without a doubt meeting behind closed doors and their directives only appear to be originating from Greenspan and the Board of Governors. Greenspan and the Board of Governors do their bidding.I firmly believe that the evolving European Central Banking system is based upon the nearly perfect model in the US, which turns out to be a grand and successful experiment. The central banking system developing in Europe will not fail in its ultimate goal. It is based upon a proven method of taking over power by stealth.When the Central Bank of the European Community is securely in place the Europeans, the common people, will not know that their individual, "national", CB's are only for show. It will appear that the individual CB's are part of the grand decision making entity, when they are only for display to the window shoppers.If ever there were a stealth operation in the works it would be the European Union. Its purpose and its ultimate structure will not be revealed. The "Central Bank" of the European central banks will be the seat of world rule. There will be a "Greenspan and Co." up front, but the real ruling authority will be hidden from view for a time until there is no probability for any opposition.It has only been just a very few years that the press and the politburo have been allowed to even refer to the Federal Reserve System as the Central Bank of the United States. From the very birth of the Federal Reserve it was vehemently asserted that the Federal Reserve System was not a Central Banking system. Now that there is no probability for any opposition and it is openly referred to as the Central Bank of the United States.My thoughts only. No reason to give them serious consideration.Very respectfully,HBM slingshot (03/04/01; 09:30:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 49323) Pandagold Welcome Back Pandagold. Slingshot. SALMON (03/04/01; 09:21:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 49322) Welcome back Panda The weekend for me is quality time, when I can share in the excellent ideas of people from around the world. You provide just that, splendid European flavor looking at a wide range of topics (all related to gold - honest money). In the relentless search for truth one should never put his/her own ego in front. That only serves to blind our vision. It is only human nature to share our own experiences with others and you do that very well, so I thank you for this. Galearis (03/04/01; 09:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 49321) @ silvercollector WGC A very short comment about the WGC and related stuff:Who subsidizes this group and its activities (therefore its position on gold prices.)? Answer: miners and fabricators.What percentage of the above are interested in HIGHER gold prices?Answer: unhedged miners.Inescapable conclusion: the WGC is in the other camp my friend. This should be the end of the discussion. (smile)It must be tough on Bill Murphy to work with this absurd situation. He has to promote miner shares, but would know (as do they) that his activities would be dangerous to them in the short term, while fundamentally many would agree with him. Don't you just love conflicts of interest?Best case scenario for the paper miner market investor: liquidity crisis sparks a gold bull - big default, G.S (or somebody) makes a grab for physical on COMEX (whatever, some left field event). Miners soar initially. Margin call miner bankruptcies follow. Paper defaults on physical. Runs on bullion banks to take delivery for paper (gold certificates). Bullion bank defaults. COMEX defaults. TOCOM in gold. COMEX collapses. Limbo period/depression/stagflation/financial crisis/collapsing USD.New physical market in Europe (London?)Euro ascendency.I may have left out something with the brevity. However, if you hold gold or silver miner stocks, one should try to dump them at the first spike in the miners fortunes before the margin call calamities hit the general awareness level of investors. There is a narrow window here and one should NOT be tempted to ride any paper bull in miners. Be prepared to take some loses in exchange for a margin of safety.If plausable jump back into pms or some other asset in a worstening hyperinflationary environment.Hibernation time.Best regards,G silvercollector (03/04/01; 09:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49320) Tidbits From 714 (49311):"Personally, I wouldn't put much stock in what "Another" has to say. I've done a lot of background research on his postings at Kitco and there's little to verify some of his claims, particularly the so-called oil-for-gold trade.Mr. 714,Please elaborate on your research. I have been reading 'ANOTHER'S' postings and find them most interesting. The believability factor is a question. I spent alot of time researching oil pre/post Y2K. The EIA accredited the sharp rise in POO pre-Y2K to hoarding and stockpiling in fear of Y2K. However, as you know, oil has not fallen back post-Y2K and it begs the question of the sudden rise in POO. It can be debated that the rise is attributable to supply/demand shortfalls to a large degree but oil still remains high in a falling economic enviroment.Speculation is that oil will never return to $20 or less and that high oil is here to stay. My research also found that 'swing share' is shifting to the Middle East and secondly oil reserves are falling with a cresting of consumption exceeding discovery in the very near term (2005+/-). With the 'half-life' of oil approachingand critical resources upon us in some 30-40 years, oil appears to be an extremely dangerous situation moving forward. If this information is remotely accurate a relationship may exist between oil and gold. The question that I ask myself (probably too often) is what is to replace oil, as a reserve, in the eyes of the oil producers and in particular the Middle East. Do they want tractor-trailer loads of non-redeemable debt instruments? I must believe that something more tangible is wanted; gold seems an obvious answer. As economies falter and currencies loose value, driven by high oil and lost confidence what is to replace this?We are aware that CB's are selling gold and the favorite question is who is buying. Above ground stocks remain the same, yes? Perhaps, oil producers will accept 'money' for oil for an indeterminate period of time but for how long. Perhaps FOA's statement regarding the 2 year old spike in oil is indicative of a re-evaluation of the USD. If the USD is for example overvalued by a factor of 2, then the POO at 30 reflects the real price of oil at $15 times 2? What do we look forward to, higher and higher oil because of increasingly overevaluation of the USD? Or perhaps the supplement of cheap oil and gold? (ie: $19 + XXX)There is something Another knows that we don't, I personally look for hidden clues and I believe I have spotted a couple.What's your take?SC silvercollector (03/04/01; 08:25:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 49319) Tidbits From Ax (49298):"Do gold-haters realise the impact-extend of a possible CB goldbuy announcement ? Suffice it to urge the WGC to update the world, constantly, on any move, on the 32.000 tons of CB-gold ! The best marketing basis ever. If CBs really had the intention of selling all their gold...they would have arranged a much higher price-environment for their sales. " Quoted from Belgian PostAgreed. I have seen statistics on CB held ground over the years. I seem to recall approximately some 50%-60% of above ground gold was held post WWII. This amount has dwindled to some 25%-30%. Perhaps WGC (are they really acting in gold's best interests; does the term 'WORLD GOLD COUNCIL' imply that they want gold up or down, or are they neutral, or do they even care?) as well as:a) updating movement of CB-held gold b) update the world to total quantity of CB-held gold in terms of total quantity (ie: 32,000 tonnes) and percentage of above-ground stock. (ie:25%) When the WGC has shown the world that CB dishoarding has ceased (ie leveled at 25%/32,000 tonnes) the gambit will be up.Failure of this may lead one to believe that:a) WGC is not interested or cares and consequently one would have to question their motives or,b) WGC is unable to obtain the 'secretative' numbers from CB's and thus one must examine the role of CB holdings of gold as a reserve. For example, the US apparently holds some 8,000+/- tonnes of gold in reserve. Surely the reserve aids in the role of maintaining the dollar. However, the tonnage has not been confirmed (as we are lead to believe) in 30-some years. This begs the question as to why the USG wants this 'secret'. What is the advantage to the US in having it's gold reserve non-audited? Further to the above (and in comparision) does France/Germany/EU report gold holdings regularly? From Randy's posts it is clear that this occurs but are holdings audited unlike the US.Thanks.SC Shermag (03/04/01; 08:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 49318) 714, Thanks for the info on Japanese inflation It helps me put the picture together.Also, regarding your question on Germany and France keeping their CBs and gold, I suspect that it would not have been politically palatable with the voters, especially the Germans, to go more deeply into integration at this first step. I believe that deeper integration and dissolving of the seperate CBs is in the future of European monetary affairs. 714 (03/04/01; 07:45:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49317) Nice Euro site... http://www.econ.yale.edu/~corsetti/euro/Euroit.htm 714 (03/04/01; 07:29:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49316) Question for all Does it strike any of you as rather odd that Euro members such as France and Germany will maintain their own central banks and gold holdings in spite of their "monetary union"? The Invisible Hand (03/04/01; 07:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49315) Is gold price control ending? http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/hickel030201.html SteveH argues that 1. by now gold has been sold short to an estimated 10,000 to 17,000 tons (no body knows for sure). This represents four to six years of production. In other words, physical gold is the Achilles Heel of the new economy.2. we can all rest assured that it will be several years to a decade (maybe) to recover from the excesses in the paper markets since 1982 (and mostly since 1994).And concludes that if the inevitable rise in gold can be put off, it will be, but it is becoming increasingly harder to curtail, and, thanks to the Internet, it is being done in broad daylight.My apologies if this has been posted before. Pandagold (03/04/01; 05:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 49314) With you at weekends First let me say thanks to those who offered a few kind words at my parting post. I will compromise with those who wished me to stay by confining my post to the odd weekend. Too busy making money ( though still small potatoes) during the week.I had detected things were livening up so felt I needed to focus my energy in the area where money is generated. I hope you are all doing a little better, accepting that this is very early days.I have been in, and considered, many kinds of businesses, in my life, but this one 'the Gold business', to me, is the most rewarding. It is one where I can truly put all my education and talents to work.Why am I in the Gold business? Because they, 'TPTB' , are in the gold business - and have been for thousands of years. What's good enough for them, is good enough for me.If you are Christian, though the little babe was Jewish - His first present - the FIRST Christmas present, was GOLD!. If it was good enough for Him......yes, you've got the message.I contend that today, it has NEVER been easier for the common man to make money.When I sit at my computer and see the wealth of information at my disposal, the ease at which I can flash an order - thousands of miles across the ocean, to buy or sell (Gold coins, or mining shares) and have it executed within seconds, bowls me over. You are 'in business' for the price of a good computer.You can give yourself a university education without getting off your backside - diverse information, the thoughts of the wise, are literally at your finger tips.As 'Satch' used to sing - "What a Wonderful World". My only fear is that when they have got us all hooked, they will start charging us for all this information. Meanwhile, I make hay while the sun shines.When I started attending auctions many years ago, someone told me then - don't bid for something on which you are hoping to sell for a profit if you can't live with it (because you might have to, at least for a while). I have used this rule in anything I have been tempted to deal in. What is nicer to have to live with than a beautiful gold coin - and what is easier to sell if you have to.I needed some quick cash a few years ago. I went to Binks in London with a few gold coins - American, and Canadian, plus a gold bracelet, I had bought (without VAT) in New York. I was handed a fistful of crisp pound notes in the length of time it took the dealer to take out his spy glass and give the items the once over, then count the money.The price of gold fell just over a week later. That made me feel even better. The point is, it is so easy. Could you do that with your house or car? There is a Jeweller's near where I live. Even while gold has been dropping like a lead brick, he has had a board on the sidewalk which says on both sides - 'We buy Gold and Silver".When we lose money in the market, if we are honest, it is because we got our timing wrong. It doesn't really matter where gold is going ( I know that sounds smug, and a little off beat) you can make money. Gold has ALWAYS been manipulated, well, long enough to stand as always. Manipulation is not synonimus with 'down'. You can manipulate something up. When gold spiked at over $800 dollars in the early 1980's most of that was a giant short squeeze, especially right at the end. One of the causes of falls zig-zagging down is that besides the bottom fishers, you have those elite professional shorts who squeeze the multitude of minnow shorts, because they are'clogging the drain' (stopping it going down), and stopping the big professional shorts from making money. Yes, there are shorts, and shorts - the big shorts eat the little shorts.The same applies in reverse. I am making money now, but I am not getting excited because we are at a point where the tide (for gold) is very treacherous. The trend is still down but it is getting ready for the turn. While I use a metaphor that is tied to nature, there is a big difference to that which it is being applied to. The real tide is pure nature, and regulated by God, and does not lend itself to manipulation by man.The answer is to take small profits - be satisfied with small mercies until a definite trend shows itself, backed by a good tail wind.It is only important to know it (gold) is manipulated by people, who descend form people who have been in the gold busines for centuries, and control most of it. In this way, you are not labouring under false illusions. To worry about who is doing it is a waste of time. and is fruitless. I know many of you will be tempted to put up arguments here, and I can accept that because I know how difficult this business ( of who, and how , it is controlled) is to understand.Someone once told me that the easiest way to go someplace is, find some guy who is going someplace, then grab his coat tails. So, I watch where these jokers are going, then hang on. They love a crisis, they create them. Why? because that is when the sheep panic. Crisis means opportunity - usully opportunity to pick up things cheap. How often do we hear those adages of the big traders - 'Buy when no one else wants it, then sell when everyone does.' 'Buy when blood is running in the streets'.Yes, we hear them, read them, say yes thats the way, then promptly forget it. Why? Because it takes guts to do it.Every time gold moves down it goes into stronger hands. Most them are BIG players,bullion isn't for the small timers, they did not amass their fortunes by being foolish.No one can expect to buy right at the bottom, but there is 'insurance' you can take to cover most of any fall. And you don't have to be in the futures market.You can make MORE in the gold market right now than you can get in any other form of normal investment. I believe Co-bra explained how he has made some. I too, in one week made more on my money ( not a lot) but more than I would have got in a year in any bank or time deposit or whatever. And, I had fun doing it.The short term zigs and zags, or media rhetoric doesn't bother me. I KNOW where these jokers are going, and thats all that matters.It's no use getting uptight about - London is doing this, and New York is doing that, or Switzerland is .......... Forget it. These people are INTERNATIONAL. To them, the world has always been a global village. They work as a team, and pass the ball to keep you guessing. They don't want you to see it as a team. Sometimes they throw in a bit of angry exchange rhetoric to make it look good.They can collapse ANY currency at the drop of a hat. The dollar will be propped as long as it suits them. They know the dollar needs some rest and recuperation, so they are moving to establish the Euro. The Euro WILL take up the slack - trust me.Gold WILL NOT make any serious move up until the Euro is steady on its feet no matter what GATA says or does - trust me. I have said this many times, and I will keep on saying it whether it bores you or not. I believe, sooner or later YOU WILL see it. The Euro will be where they want it before this year is out, and then the hold on gold will be relaxed (the word is 'relaxed', not released).I am sorry if, to some of you, I sound a bit strong, but I don'e believe you can pussy-foot around with this stuff. Making money is serious business. And when you enter the financial markets, forget this crap about 'investing' you are at war, and there is an enemy out there who is out to kill you - and drink your blood.The financial markets do NOT make money, they just shift it from one set of itchy fingers to another. Usually, it is from yours to theirs, if you're not VERY careful. Hence the fact that I do not flower my words, or smother them with pleasantries.To sum up, I honestly believe that the time has never been better. Gold is here to stay. Goldsmiths go back into history, and will be around in the next millennium if the world dominated by humans survives. As I said earlier, I am sticking with GOLD because TPTB believe in gold, and have a huge investment in it. It is the source of their power. If they lost it they would be like Superman without cryptonite.Have fun. Don't die without a smile on your face. People will be for ever wondering what you just found out. Leigh (03/04/01; 04:46:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 49313) Peter Asher, Shifty You're right; Farfel has gone missing! He still has access not only to USAGOLD but also to LeMetropoleCafe, which I imagine would be thrilled to publish his correspondence. Farfel, come forth! Let the world see these incriminating documents! Don't let anyone think you've been cowed by the threats of the evil forces! 714 (03/04/01; 04:09:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49312) Belgian, thanks for your comments on bonds... http://www.trumanlibrary.org/oralhist/bernsten.htm ...what exactly did happen to your Triple AAA bonds? Your comments on debt are right on. Economic growth has to continue or it's crunch time. As for your question why CBs hold so many US$'s, that is very complicated. Some of it is financing one's export market, which explains Japan's blind (and VERY important) support for the US$. But there's a bit of history in there too. From 1939 to 1941, the US took extraordinary measures to protect foreign assets held by allied countries and to keep them from falling into nazi hands. Much of this is documented by a lawyer named Bernard Bernstein who worked for US Treasury in the 30' and 40's. Very interesting. I first ran across this guy in researching gold-clause contracts and how those were handled under the US's Gold Reserve Act of 1934 here in the States. Actually there's quite a bit of history on gold, both in the US and Europe in the above document. It is for good, and long-standing, reasons the US is considered a "safe haven".On a more personal note, what part of Europe are you in? I get the impression your reside in France, despite your handle. I was in France a couple of years ago and it was striking to me how much was named after Roosevelt, even a restaurant in Fontainebleu called the "FDR". 714 (03/04/01; 03:34:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 49311) turkey hunter re: gold reserves http://www.gold.org/Gra/Gra1.htm#Gold reserve statistics Central banks currently hold approximately 25% of the world's above ground supply. Statistics on CB gold reserves is available at the above link. And the world's above ground supply of gold is generally estimated 120,000 tons, though some claim this estimate is low.Personally, I wouldn't put much stock in what "Another" has to say. I've done a lot of background research on his postings at Kitco and there's little to verify some of his claims, particularly the so-called oil-for-gold trade. His heart's in the right place, but his head's not on straight. Belgian (03/04/01; 02:57:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 49310) State Debt - Bonds and Gold ING-Bank is looking at the evolution of state-debt/%GNP of the last 30 years. The conclusion is very simple and as expected. Most stockmarkets-highs, suggest that the economic expansion has been tremendous...but did not result in a decrease of state-debt, with the exceptions of Ireland and Denmark. A consensus of state-debt at 60% of GNP, seems to be the target. The US? made it but Japan/Italy/Belgium/Greece/ still above 100%. And this under such a long period of favarable conditions !The study is projecting this debt evolution into a 10 to 50 years future. Ridiculous of course to suppose that the world economy will expand and grow at the same momentum of the past 30 years explosion. They want us to dream about zero debt ! And economic perpetum mobile ! They even are seriously worried about having to live without debt ! Broeeeehaha ! This is outright idiocy of course.Blip-1971 : evolution of US state-debt/%GNP since 1790 :The chart shows how this debt slowly rises to 25% in 1922 and starts getting momentum, with hyperbolic allures, and topping at above 100% in 1940 (start of WWII). Dramatic decline afterwards and reaching a low of 20% in 1971, where an instant (!) rise is bringing the debt over 50% and going higher.States are looking for the optimum debt-growth versus GNP-growth. They are constantly wrong in their projections. Welfare, socialism, breath and games for all. Thanks !Today, we have such a tremendous amount of private paper-money, invested in thousands (millions) of funds of all kinds that this is behaving as an avalanche builing.These masses of paper must be contained (freezed) at any price and nothing may occur to make the fatal slide happen.PPTs worldwide. The CONFIDENCE-SHOCK-WAVE is there to stay and growing. This and nothing else is the clue. Nothing is or can or has the will to change this evolution.Each time, I bring the question of Debt and Debt-growth on the table...(any table of course)...the final answer is uniform : there is NO problem with debt, as long as we can avoid any shock. Never to be precicised as Confidence shock ! cfr, ridiculisation of POO as an economic given.Time and time again, the debt question is causing a caustic silence and the next subject is hastely, started. Yes, I know ...nothing new ! But I keep on communicating and reminding this debt-cancer to anyone who wants to lend me his official ear. But my story is hopelessly Dé-MO-Dé (out of fashion)Officials claim that they will eradicate DEBT with economic GROWTH !? But this GROWTH can only be materialised, with...YES !... MORE DEBT...MU_U_U_CH MORE De-e-e-e-btttttt !! Nice, very nice viscious circle. That's why GOLD is the ultimate chain breaker. This message must be fostered worldwide by all goldphiles. Use your WWW for homework ! And let's have a close look how Japan will get out of its 120% debt status ? Zero rates ?...Yen-Devaluation ?...Bankruptcies and write-offs ?...Delays on repayments on Bonds and interest rates ?...Artificial stockmarket support ad infinitum ? Faites vos jeux, messieurs. A worldwide decline in Growth is "THE" sword of Damocles. Ask Greenie, why he is lowering his interest rates frantically. Ououuhhgff...you all know it, of course.I am only putting GOLD into the right perspective at this very right moment...that's all. justamereBear (03/04/01; 01:40:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 49309) Shifty 49299 Re FarfelLOL Either that or Goldsell sent a hit man.j'Bear SHIFTY (03/04/01; 00:10:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49308) CSFB's Crisp: Gold Price, ECB Sales and Supply Issues http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Mining%20News&tp=ad_mine&T=au_storypage99.ht&s=AOp8g2hGWQ1NGQidz&ao=10096932 Listen at link aboveRunning time 3:09. Sydney, March 2, 2001 (Bloomberg) -- Kevin Crisp, a director for precious metals at Credit Suisse First Boston, talks with Bloomberg's Brendan Trembath about the recent decline in the gold price, the impact of European Central Bank gold sales on market volatility, supply issues and the long-term price outlook. 01:20 Gold price, market volatility, long-term trading outlook 01:49 Reasons for price fluctuations; ECB gold sales and supply ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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