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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/27/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (08/27/01; 22:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 60360) Northrop to Cut Jobs http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20010827&ID=1024720 Snippit:WOODLAND HILLS, Calif. (Reuters) - Defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) on Monday said its electronic systems sector would consolidate some facilities acquired through the purchase of Litton Industries Inc. About 500 jobs will be cut as part of the consolidation, Northrop said. That represents about 4.5 percent of the company's total California-based work force of 11,000.Black Blade: Some more undesirable Defensive "Bones" cast upon the "Bone Pile." The Global economy is hurting and getting worse almost hourly. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. Hang on for the ride. John Doe (08/27/01; 22:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 60359) (No Subject) "They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin, to the Penn State Legislature, 1759.Luckily, for those willing and able to think a bit outside the modern monetary morass, there is a way to increase both one's liberty AND safety -- gold! ...and silver, too ;o) Black Blade (08/27/01; 22:01:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 60358) Rearranging Facts To Suit Bottom Line http://www.nydailynews.com/2001-08-27/News_and_Views/Media_and_Business/a-123227.asp Snippit: How to interpret the corporate balance sheet (Black Blade)They take a one-time reserve, and presto - the division disappears from the earnings statement. By getting rid of its losers, the company can say it beat its estimates. There is only one problem. The division is still there and still burning cash.Some companies get creative and take reserves that are much higher than needed. Then, when the division is closed, they quietly put the extra reserves back into earnings, once again, helping them to beat their estimates.Then there are the infamous "non-recurring" expenses. Some of these expenses are legit. It's reasonable for a company to take a one-time reserve if an earthquake destroys a factory. It's not reasonable for the same company to take a reserve for hiring or laying off workers or opening new facilities. This is just normal business.Some companies exclude the costs of stock options from their earnings, others pump up their numbers by taking imaginary gains from their pension funds. Check out how much of IBM's earnings come from these gimmicks.My favorite trick is the pro-forma earnings, so loved by the tech companies. In pro-forma earnings, the company makes its own rules. It says, "if we include the things we want and exclude the things we don't want, this is what our earnings will look like." This is utterly ridiculous, except most investors and many analysts fall for it.Black Blade: This should be titled "Rearrainging the Deck Chairs." Of course analysts fall for these idiocy, most of these budding rocket scientists are babbling idiots. They and the Talking Heads are the ones who pumped the dot.com bubble and "informed" all that the dot.coms with no earnings or even with no prospect of ever having any earnings were great bargains. The game is still afoot as revealed in the article. Note: Amazon.com is one of the most egregious offenders when it comes to the pro forma scam. Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com proudly announced that his company would be profitable this year - on a pro forma basis. If the SEC is ever serious about investigating and exposing US companies that are involved in these scams, it could shake investor confidence so badly that the markets would crack. Time to consider getting into the "Golden Lifeboats." Black Blade (08/27/01; 21:40:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 60357) IT'S GETTING WORSE http://www.nypost.com/business/2884.htm Snippit:August 27, 2001 -- A whopping number of companies are expected to make negative preannouncements on earnings for the third-quarter, setting up an ever-gloomier economic forecast. More than 355 companies have already made negative preannouncements for the third quarter ending Sept. 31. That's 7 percent ahead of the first quarter's jaw-dropping 332 companies. And the devastating first quarter broke all Thomson Financial's records for preannouncements since the firm began tracking them in 1995. "Earnings are still spiraling downward," said Thomson Financial's Stephen Rigo. "We have not seen a stablization in the reduction of forward-looking negative earnings estimates for the S&P 500."IMPORTANT!Wall Streeters don't like to say it, but the numbers show there's an earnings recession in America. And if the trend in disappearing profits continues, a full-blown recession could be next - if we're not in one already. Leading the nation down the not-so-rosy recession road this time are American businesses. Operating income for the S&P 500 companies has fallen steeply as the wreckage in the technology sector sucked $5 trillion in U.S. wealth out of company purses and individuals' pocketbooks, economists say. To salvage profits and bolster stock prices, companies have been cutting costs by laying off workers, decreasing spending and slashing prices for their goods to clear off inventories.Black Blade: Can you say - Grim? Dismal? Even Recession? I knew you could. We are in a Recession and the talking Heads and buffoons at the BLS and elsewhere can spin whatever story that they wish. We are and have been in a Recession for at least the last several months. The GDP data is about as accurate as the CPI and PPI data, and the statistical massage only makes the inevitable that much more painful. Gold and Silver insurance is definitely in order. Black Blade (08/27/01; 21:09:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 60356) California generators complain of not getting paid again http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Elect&ARTICLE_ID=114076 Snippit:HOUSTON, Aug. 27 -- California independent electricity generators and others have not been paid for power delivered to the state's independent system grid operator for 3 consecutive months in violation of a federal order, an organization representing the group said. Following missed payments for April and May, the June payment was not received as scheduled in early August. "It wasn't clear at first. But there was a systematic pattern of nonpayment," said Steven Kelly, manager of policy at the Independent Energy Producers (IEP), a trade association in Sacramento. Some generators received a letter stating they would be paid 12¢ on the dollar for power delivered during those 3 months. IEP sought an explanation from the California Independent System Operator, but Jan Smutney-Jones, IEP executive director, called the response "troubling" in a letter to the California Department of Water Resources."Market participants have been providing power, in good faith, to Californians for months without being paid," said Smutny-Jones. "California ratepayers have been paying their bills, raising the question: Where's the money? To date there is no explanation for nonpayment." "It would appear that FERC rules are not being adhered to," said Kelly. "Where is the money going?" he asked. Contrary to earlier predictions, the state hasn't experienced blackouts this summer. While unseasonably cool summer is certainly a major reason, the "forbearance" of the generators is another, a spokesman for one generator said. Most declined comment.Black Blade: This comes on the heels of the Edison Intl. Statement last week that they could seek Chapter 11 protection. Californians could find themselves without electricity as several energy providers have threatened to "pull the plug" and not do business in California as an order of business. This time the rolling blackouts may come as a result of California Deadbeats not paying up. This could push the economy that much further over the edge. Go for the Gold! Black Blade (08/27/01; 20:38:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 60355) Asian Markets Sinking Fast http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u The Nikkei appears ready to go sub 11,000 (perhaps tonight). Japanese chip makers report that earnings will be "Grim" until 2004. Meanwhile in the last few days there are at least 60,000 Japanese Tech "Bones" that are scheduled to be cast upon the "Bone Pile." The Global Recession is on. Black Blade (08/27/01; 20:34:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 60354) Forbes Body Count http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html The bodies just keep piling up as more companies cast their undesirables upon the "Bone Pile." The Forbes Body Count has now passed through the 600,000 mark. This Recession could be more painful than those of the 1970's and 1980's. Go for the Gold! Editor, The Gilded Opinion (08/27/01; 19:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 60353) BUCKLER AND HATHAWAY Served Up Tonight at the Gilded Opinion http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html For those who would like to raise their "real money" I.Q., the Gilded Opinion is pleased to offer Bill Buckler's excellent "Educational Series on Money and Gold". And, while you're with us, please also take time (if you haven't already) to peruse John Hathaway's "Gold as Theater". In it, Hathaway carefully lays down the latest evidence to surface on the government gold manipulation trail.Please use the link provided above. Thanks! uponroof (08/27/01; 19:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 60352) GATA IS MAINSTREAM.....get use to it Not too long ago a certain metals analyst by the name of Leonard Kaplan, who provides 'Prospector Asset Management' featured on thebulliondesk web site, said something of the following..."we should thank GATA for providing humor in this very dismal market". Very funny Mr. Kaplan.This was a cheap shot from a smug longtime metals market 'insider analyst' who is apparently so 'inside' that he stopped looking 'outside' of the spoon fed menu. Call it lazy, call it stupid. Time to get your head out, from inside of your ass Kaplan. It's blind 'insiders' like you that have cost this market credibility and it's investors money.Mr Kaplan, who seeks work from the John Hathaways of the world, perhaps wishes he never said that.It's OK Mr. Kaplan A nice retractment, complete with the standard 'only a grave misunderstanding' excuse will do.***********************************************************Hathaway Bolsters GATA's Credibility Le Metropole Members, ( BW)(TX-GATA) ``Gold as Theatre'' by Tocqueville's Hathaway Bolsters GATA's CredibilityBusiness EditorsDALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 27, 2001--Gold fund manager John Hathaway has endorsed the findings of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) that the price of gold is being suppressed by the U.S. government. Hathaway's endorsement came in a "press release" dated August 23 and titled "Gold as Theater," posted at the Internet site of the Tocqueville Funds:http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=22Hathaway manages the Tocqueville Gold Fund.GATA Chairman Bill Murphy welcomed Hathaway's statement. "It enhances GATA's credibility immensely," Murphy said. "John Hathaway may be the most respected gold fund manager in the world. Now that he has been persuaded that the U.S. government is rigging the gold market, others may be persuaded too. And just as important, GATA may be closer to showing the world that there isn't a surplus of gold but a great shortage disguised only by massive central bank leasing and purposely deceptive gold swapping operations." In "Gold as Theater," Hathaway writes: "There is growing body of credible evidence that the U.S. government and others may have been manipulating the metal price for some time. A few years ago such claims were unsubstantiated and lacked credibility, but recently some weighty evidence is beginning to accumulate. Credit for the heavy lifting on discovery of possible price-fixing activity goes to Bill Murphy, Reginald Howe, James Turk, and their associates. A useful source to learn more are the two Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Web sites: www.lemetropolecafe.com and www.gata.org."The Exchange Stabilization Fund, controlled by the U.S. Treasury and essentially unaccountable to Congress or the American people, appears to be a key instrument for intervention. It appears that U.S. gold reserves have been swapped or in some way encumbered. The basis for this supposition can be found in the ESF financial statements themselves."According to James Turk in his Freemarket Gold & Money Report (www.fgmr.com) dated August 13, 2001, SDR Certificates held by the ESF declined from a peak level of 10.2 billion to 2.2 billion as of year end 2000. A precipitous decline from 9.2 billion as of year-end 1998 to current levels coincided with an accelerated decline in the gold price that began in May 1999 (the announcement of British gold auction) and the breakout of the trade-weighted dollar index from a multi-year trading range."If the U.S. and other governments have been actively involved in manipulating the gold market, there is far greater upside potential for the gold price than I had previously imagined. The U.S. government may have already expended considerable resources to hold the gold price in check. Public, press, and congressional scrutiny of these matters should commence in earnest."GATA Chairman Murphy notes that GATA consultant Reginald H. Howe has located an academic essay co-authored by Lawrence Summers, former U.S. treasury secretary and incoming president of Harvard University. The article, "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," was published in June 1988 in the Journal of Political Economy. In this essay Summers observed that in a "truly free market gold prices will move inversely to real long-term rates, falling when rates rise and rising when they fall."But, as Howe writes at www.GoldenSextant.com about the Summers essay:"This relationship ended after 1995 during Summers' tenure at the Treasury Department. During this period, as real interest rates (30-year T-bond less the CPI rate) have declined from the 4 percent level to near 2 percent, but gold prices have fallen from $400/oz. to around $270 rather than rising toward the $500 level as Gibson's paradox and the model of it constructed by Summers indicates they should have." Howe goes on to observe "The low real long-term interest rates of the past few years may have been engineered with far more sophistication than those of a generation ago, including the coordinated and heavy use of both gold and interest rate derivatives."Howe's observations are supported by the work of GATA consultant Mike Bolser in a report entitled, "Preemptive Selling in COMEX Gold," which can be viewed at:http://www.goldensextant.com/commentaryBA.html#anchor65565Bolser notes a standard deviation selling event on Comex in 1996 that "would be expected to happen at random only once in 833 years of Comex activity (10,000 periods)." Bolser goes on to say: "The implications of such an event are ominous. These extreme selling events started during the Clinton administration. Perhaps not coincidentally, Event A occurred right around the time that the Federal Reserve, after a lapse of 64 years, assumed the two American seats on the board of the Bank of International Settlements" -- an event GATA maintains is central to the U.S. government's suppression of the gold price.Murphy says: "Each week now produces more evidence that the United States has been a part of a scheme to manipulate the price of gold. This scheme is confirmed by the January 31, 1995, minutes of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, at which gold swaps were attributed to the Exchange Stabilization Fund."--30--ltw/da*CONTACT: Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. Bill Murphy, 214/522-3411 Fax: 214/522-4432 LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com -END-><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>What could be better to send to the press around theworld, gold producer CEOs and to the political leadersof the gold producing countries?! DO IT NOW!********************************************************** Gold Trail Update (08/27/01; 19:22:44MDT - Msg ID:60351) The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates. Gold Trail Update (08/27/01; 19:00:07MDT - Msg ID:60350) The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates. lamprey_65 (08/27/01; 18:38:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 60349) Gold selling panic... I believe we've already had our panic in gold...imho the bottom was put in after the BOE announcement in '99. lamprey_65 (08/27/01; 18:35:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 60348) uponroof I used my pan...planning on picking up a metal detector specifically designed for nugget shooting next year. There is gold to be found in New England if you know where and how to look and IF you have the persistance. Cleaned out one nice little spot this summer...my first real find.Lots of nice garnets too...not worth much but awfully pretty! turkey hunter (08/27/01; 18:09:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 60347) Warren Buffet on the economy From NewsMax Aug 27th Buffett: Eight Years of Economic 'Hangover' NewsMax Wires Monday, Aug. 27, 2001 The most successful stock investor ever says the slowdown in the U.S. economy will last for eight more years.Suggesting an economic stagnation of biblical proportions, Warren Buffett has told executives affiliated with companies owned or controlled by his Berkshire Hathaway investment company that they must batten down the hatches and prepare for bad times ahead. The report in this week's Business Week magazine quotes one investor as saying that Buffett thinks a long-term "hangover" from the high-flying '90s will continue for years. Buffett had been a persistent critic of the technology boom that dominated the '90s. Buffett invests in old-line brick-and-mortar companies. Last year, Berkshire Hathaway stock rose 27 percent while the Nasdaq composite index tumbled a record-breaking 39 percent. End.Turkey Hunter: I wonder if that's way he bought all that silver? BR549 (08/27/01; 16:00:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 60346) An Educational Series on Gold and Money Bill Buckler (The Privateer)-The best essay that I have ever read on money. I am trying to figure out what you have left out. Without much success, I might add. That catch-all Fed phrase "legal tender" (unfortunately for our citizens) may never be added to gold backed value-based currencies in the U.S. "An Educational Series on Gold and Money" is required reading for anyone who thinks they know what money is and whether gold is money. BR549 (08/27/01; 14:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 60345) Quote of the day from PowerBall Winner on CNBC "There is a God. The day that I won is the day my ex-wife got remarried at 4:00 O’clock." he said with a BIG SMILE Netking (08/27/01; 14:38:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 60344) Fresh signs of US slowdown http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1512000/1512047.stm Snippit:"More signs of the slowdown in the US economy were evident on Monday with house sales falling and a downbeat jobs survey. Sales of non-new homes fell quicker than expected during July, suggesting the economic slowdown is finally beginning hit the consumer. . ." uponroof (08/27/01; 14:08:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 60343) Junior Samples and his deisel powered BR549er ......WHOOOOOOSH! Mister Bee-Are,Wanderlust is something very dear to my heart. At 17 I thumbed it out to California. No possessions, no money, no worries. There is no doubt in my mind that is thee best way to experience America. Can't do that today, too many nuts out there. Now I have a wife, teenagers, a bidness and 'responsibilities'. Perhaps when kids are grown and bidness is sold we will pass on the highway. Till then, watch out for those firestone tires. uponroof (08/27/01; 13:53:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 60342) Cavan Man I guess that's what makes him a genius. You and I are wondering how to define "panic" while he is traveling around the world in a sawed off benz with a young female friend. Let's face it.....gold will take off after he is back, fresh from the trip, and has just bought in.Thanks site steward (08/27/01; 13:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 60341) Make a point to visit a friend today...everyday. http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/buckler.html Over the weekend, MK mentioned our friend Bill Buckler (The Privateer). You'll want to give yourself an introduction to the good quality of his thoughts on gold and money right here, just two doors down the hallway...(Click the URL above)R escapethematrix (08/27/01; 13:40:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 60340) Chirac wants EU constitution in 2004 PARIS, Aug 27 (AFP) - President Jacques Chirac said Monday that a constitution for the European Union should be in force in 2004.Recalling that he had proposed the fundamental charter during a visit to Germany last year, Chirac said: "I note with interest that this idea, which I put forward, is making headway. "Let us work to ensure it comes to light in 2004," he told senior diplomats BR549 (08/27/01; 13:36:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 60339) On the Road Again uponroof (msg#: 60336)uponroof to JR-"Congrats on doing your own thing. Time is the most important commodity which can't be manipulated or leveraged. Wish I had the stones to pack up and go before I'm too old to enjoy it."We sold our 4,200 square foot house in Riverside on the North side of Atlanta, put our stuff in storage, bought a motorhome and hit the road. We went North to Chicago, across the U.S. to the Northeast corner of the West, through all of the State parks to Washington State, down the West Coast and back though the Western States to Florida where we bought a new house.If you need a little push from somebody---DO IT! Pack up and just do it. I am in the process of "fixing up" my Motor Home for another little venture through Santa Fe & Colorado and then to a little artist colony town in CA. Planned lift off is Sept. 15th.I hope to see you on the road. Regards,BR549 Usul (08/27/01; 13:31:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 60338) SteveH Truly... Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery ... or to be more precise "Imitation is the sincerest flattery"Charles Caleb Colton(1780-1832): The Lacon Cavan Man (08/27/01; 13:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 60337) uponroof Wasn't $255 a selling panic of sorts? uponroof (8/27/01; 12:23:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 60336) Jim Rogers email on gold Good Afternoon all,Sent Jim Rogers an email question on gold. He is currently down in Argentina as part of his 3 year 'driving around the world tour'. My question was written with an intentionally negative slant. I wanted to see how he would respond. *********************************************************Greetings Jim, Congrats on doing your own thing. Time is the most important commodity which can't be manipulated or leveraged. Wish I had the stones to pack up and go before I'm too old to enjoy it. Question on GOLD. This looks like to me the last dance for gold. All the money in the world is antied up against it. Can't see how it can ever come to it's previous importance after being so bastardized for so long by so many people. I know you like to do whatever the Central Banks aren't doing, but even with gold? Any thoughts on the barbaric relic? I am a collector of bullion and coins. Thanks....and watch out for those el pacas...like deer, they can go through your windshield if you hit them hard enough. CHEERS!uponroofuponroof,Thanks for writing.I am very bullish on natural resources. I own some gold as an insurance policy, but my way to play gold is by waiting. I suspect the central bankers will cause an old fashioned selling panic some day. IF SO, I hope I am brave/solvent/alert enough to jump in and buy. If it does not happen that way, I will miss the move [except for the bit I own and my other natural resources]. Hope you can ride with us on our web site.Jim Rogerse-mail jim@jimrogers.comweb page www.jimrogers.com************************************************************So, Jim Rogers is waiting for an old fashioned selling panic.Hummmmmmm......Aren't we in one now, that's not being advertised? Seems to me there is already a panic of sorts (to sell gold) in order to keep POG down. CB's are quietly moving gold to and fro to keep any visible panic from surfacing, IMHO. I guess Jim is waiting for a more obvious panic.**********************************************************Also, from 'The American Advisor'....Soros has started a fund to buy European Real Estate, which is a clear bet against the dollar.Wayne Angell says we have a 15% chance of an 'economic catastrophe' if significant real estate devaluation occurrs.Robert Novack is in todays Washington Post calling for a gold/commodities link to the dollar.***********************************************************lamprey_65..... did you use a pan, detector or did you really step it up and use one of those mini dredges. Check this link: http://www.goldmetaldetector.com/index.htmlbtw-Thanks for that look back via the WSJ. Suggest (if you haven't already) read Roger Lowenstein's 'When Genius Failed' a behind the scenes look at all the players in this debacle. Soros, Buffet, Corzine, Meriwether, McDonough, etc etc. are all in this. The reader is treated to the 'behind the scenes' paralyzing crisis that those in power went through. It reads like a novel. Cavan Man (08/27/01; 11:02:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 60335) Robbing Peter to pay Paul? See story at Drudge site US is borrowing from the SS fund to the tune of $9bn in fiscal 2001. In 401K's and SS do we trust? Cavan Man (08/27/01; 10:59:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 60334) Hello CB2 Jambalya, crawfish pie,....gonnna have a good time down on the bayou. J'aime etouffee. Treat you to a Tullamore Dew (or two). CoBra(too) (08/27/01; 10:53:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 60333) CM - Where's the Beef ? I've got no beef ... just the sorrow of the growerof chili, peppers and a flower (not flour)though I've got a little beans as I'm on my way to New Orleans. - cu2? lamprey_65 (08/27/01; 09:49:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 60332) LTCM - A look back... I spent the weekend panning for gold in the White Mountains of New Hampshire (with some success) and reading an article a friend passed on to me from the November 16th, 1998 edition of the Wall Street Journal. The subject of the article - Long-Term Capital Management. The article is a MUST read...very illuminating on several levels. Because it was written just weeks after the LTCM situation became common knowledge, I wonder if this original article might be more revealing than other, possibly spin-affected exposés. There are a few passages I find fascinating and thought I'd share here. I remember Bill Murphy's missives concerning the possibility of LTCM being significantly short gold when I read the following....The Wall Street Journalby Wall Street Journal Staff Reporters Michael Siconlfi, Anita Raghavan and Mitchell PacelleP. A1 (continued on pp. A18-A19)All Bets Are Off: How the Salesmanship And Brainpower failed At Long-Term Capital---Investors Clamored to Get in, While Partners Debated Their Ever-Greater Risks---On the Payroll, 25 Ph.D.sOn selling the idea of LTCM to investors..."The pitch started to click better overseas. Dresdner Bank AG, after repeated visits by LTCM partners, signed up. The Bank of Italy's foreign-exchange office invested $100 million, and later lent $150 million. International banker Edmund Safra got in through a joint venture between his Republic New York Corp. and Safra Republic Holdings SA, a private banking affiliate. His Swiss bankers enthusiastically pitched the fund to European millionares."---Hmm, the now deceased Safra involved - one of the world's biggest and well-known bullion traders. Also, funny that the Swiss decided to sell all that gold, heh? --"When asked about the downside, they would presciently tell investors of one of the the biggest, and rarest, risks of all: a sudden flight to supersafe securities (like Treasury bonds) that could demolish their bets in riskier transactions".---Just "securities"?...read on --"In mid-August, Russia abrubtly defaulted on part of its debt and let the ruble fall, triggering flight by investors from all types of risk into safe investments. That devastated some of LTCM's bets, leading to the huge losses of Aug. 21st."---..."safe investments"... Could that have included physical Gold, the safest of the safe? --- Cavan Man (08/27/01; 09:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 60331) @CB (too) And, you must know that "Texas Chili" has no beans. I waas waiting for you to remark in some fashion, "where's the beef"?! SteveH (08/27/01; 09:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 60330) So, exactly where does one find the original of this? www.kitco.com Date: Mon Aug 27 2001 11:01permabear (From K2 ---WOW!) ID#8350:Copyright © 2000 permabear/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedDate: Mon Aug 27 2001 10:45 ANOTHER ( LATE THOUGHTS! ) ID#260332: - Climactic developments engulf us! Look toward the Middle East. Soon the oil will be locked in combat with the dollar! How better than to strike the dollar in it´s weak underbelly? Soon all sales of oil will be done in: EUROs! All "new" sales of "external reserve gold" will soon be done in: EUROs! They will have little use to sell gold for US$ reserves as they will have "much of that currency" already. As events progress, all/most "external gold reserves" of the "Euro Group Countries" will move towards the ECB and be settled in Euros. As gold will always be traded and denominated in the world currency that settles oil sales. Even Swiss gold will be sold to European Central Bank ( ECB ) for Euros for defense against the falling dollar. Yes, most dollar derivatives will fail as "worldwide gold trading in US$" stops from "contract default"! Will the dollar be weak in gold? Indeed, it may not exist as a market for gold! The large gold backing for the Euro and the "much greater" gold reserves for the individual countries of the Euro, is a direct result from observations of gold buying by oil! If it is well known by the BIS that a move by oil to bring crude to $10.00 US, is a precursor to an "new world oil currency", then it is well known to the Euro makers! Gold will be managed back to a range of $320/$360 with much hope for participation of Euro as "the" "currency/gold" payment for oil. My knowledge is that the new range will bring a breakup to the London operation, with the ensuing run by gold to infinity. One should grasp that "today, your wealth, is not what your currency say it is"! In this world, paper currency is for trade, only! It is for the buying, selling, earning and paying, not for knowing the value of your family holdings! Know this, "the printers of paper do never tell the owner that the money has less value, that judgment is reserved for the person you offer that currency to"! Again, I ask, how can we know a true value for our assets, when they are known only in currency that finds it's worth, as in the exchange rate for another currency? Some say, "I hold investments of great increase these past years, and am much ahead of the inflation, if it should come". I say, "your investments, worldwide, have moved little, as it has been the currencies that denominate your assets, that fall a great deal". The price inflation that comes, it is larger than your vision can see! Your past, holds little of knowing value outside of currencies, this does block the good view! It is a well known, considered problem that, if not fixed, will take the "Western World" back in time many years. Perhaps, luxury will be lost, and many will live as "third world countries". Some may find this a "better outcome" in life? However: Our world economic system does survive many problems. Humankind must battle the war and distrust with great intensity. Always, we find, it is the honest person of simple means that leads the lost! These same citizens will find a security for the future that comes from the past. History has shown the physical gold does hold true against all odds. We watch the approach of this change, and discuss it, together, yes? It will truly be "a gold market as none before". But in time, "that too will pass as swift clouds on a moon less night". I will again be gone for a time. Thank You CoBra(too) (08/27/01; 09:25:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 60329) @ USAGOLD - c.o. MK - Re James Turk - As it may be premature to consider all the evidence amassed against most of the US Gold being unencumbered, the latest indications seem to point in the direction of "The Emperor has no Clothes". ... and as the welfare state(s) start to admit that they might have to omit, or better curb certain promises as to the benefit of paid up participations in pension and health care plans, I respectfully submit to the scam and will be working - as long as I can. ... and as it seems, the socialistic, though golden dreams of ever appreciating realms of social market economy, are becoming rapidly the capitalists worst enemy. ... as globalisation, a euphemism for colonization under the pretext of a synthetic paper monetary system - controlled by slow burn - though as the turn of events may preceed the predictable ends of the monetary spree - as all see the consumerism is just a schi'ism, forfeiting the true and blue characteris'm of capitalis'm. ...Savings, the only capital to enhance productivity in the long run - seems to be all gone - though in perceived "new era's" you can tout as long as Li'l Joe believes the mantra of Santa - as the thieves (of the old admin)have all gone to retirement, leaving the boomers spent ... to their end. Repent? - No, heck, the purgatory was sent to the new admin ... which took a respiratory 4 weeks of vacation to BBQ the occasion with a burnt equation of a Texas style re-animation of long gone(long horns, even)burnt steaks, without, as it seems a solution to the equilibrium or any substitution to a fair (economic) game, or medium to rare of the same! Shame, why Texas when Las Vegas is closer to the Hearts of Kings, where venture capital was as good as it was in the Dot.Com(munist) Spins, as I recall exuberant Al, had his reservations - on a black jack table of recrimination? - just before LTCM, a missile, going astray for a while, so with a smile AG just doubled up! Try it again - Uncle Sam! ... cb2 ... and cheers to all o'you ... Belgian (08/27/01; 09:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 60328) Fragments - Korea abolishes VAT (10%) on Physical Gold ! Isn't this very significant fellow students ? But why doesn't the Korean gvnmt. says, why they are abolishing it ? Who inspires who : China <> Korea ! Encouragement to hold gold.- Gold-silence and secrecy : if you realy don't want to say something on the citizen's gold...we know enough ! Gold is very,very,very important.- To *TRADE* is fun and to *HOLD* is dull. Let's do the contrarian.- Spread the TG's *THOUGHTS* everywhere you go on the net, and make it 50.000 a day for CPM !- Who will be the first to ship oil for euro's ? Northsea-oil / Arabian-oil / other ?- Tobin Tax on speculative currency-trades. Why are these Tax collectors doing only half the job and forget about *GOLD* as the ultimate International Economics Equalizer ?Anti Globalization activists, please, have a look at what Gold can do for your cause !- Some "signals" as to answer the Leigh "when" question :>>> POO abandons the 30 yrs horizontal price range of 10$-35$.>>> POG jumps trough the 360$ fundamental and technical (interpretation) ceiling.>>> euro starts its uptrend against the $, without economic justification. Me thinks it is in progress ($/€-chart-?)>>> A signal from an official gold-buyer, any goldbuyer. Or any official Gold-statement.>>> When Trading (leveraging) goes out and Holding comes back into fashion (bottoming)(LBMA-papervolume steady decline).>>> When the US-Media can't but report on €-strength and $-weakness.>>> A crack in the Anglo-American alliance (UK-Japan-South America)(?) Anti dollar and pro euro.>>> When the dollar-index starts its C-leg down in the ABC pattern from 1985.What would happen if a Gold-blessed country like South Africa, should decide to sell its gold for euro's from 1/1/2002, together with a positive EMU referendum in the UK ? The permanent-unstoppable, decline of the Rand, could be a reasonable excuse to leave the dollar shelter.Why aren't Northsea oil-producers, not giving an euro-support signal with oil for euro's ? And why did no other oil producers ever replaced their exported oil with gold ?Even if there was no euro in sight...they surely knew that the $ got more and more debt loaded.Once gold and oil are mined and drilled...nothing is left to generate new fiat. Most of oil and gold-dollars have been consumed and not mutated in other fiat generators.Why hasn't the gold example of the Arabian oil Giants, been copied by others ? I have a problem here. USAGOLD (08/27/01; 08:32:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 60327) Today's Commentary & Review. . . http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Note: Note: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the concepts addressed briefly below are covered in detail in our upcoming 32-page Quarterly Review. Please go to the link above to register for your packet.Having problems with the Fetch function this morning, so you'll have trouble getting into the Commentary & Review until Randy figures out what the problem is. Thanks for your patience, and after all the nice things I said about the internet yesterday.Thanks for your kind comments, Rich and Gandalf. . . . In Brief: Gold tracked sideways to start the week. We'll know more about where the economy is headed as the week progresses. Tuesday the Consumer Confidence report is released. Wednesday we get GDP and Friday Factory Orders will be reported along with the Michigan Sentiment index. A number of analysts came out over the past week in favor of gold ownership. One notable report from the BBC highlighted rumors of a major hedge fund on the ropes. Reminiscent of the problems with Long Term Capital Management a few years back, one international investment fund warned that the U.S. stock market would be the most vulnerable if this un-named hedge fund collapsed. John H Mesrobian at Constantinople Advisers said investors "should be bailing out of the US market, where the bubble would be likely to burst first, and should be selling the dollar and buying the euro, and gold." Similarly widely-followed Hong Kong investment advisor, Marc Faber has come out in favor of gold ownership. "The gold bear market is more than 20 years old and has either already ended or is at least approaching its end, as more and more investors will come to share my view that something simply doesn't add up in the present monetary system (which isn't really a system) and that one day the ownership of a store of value that is totally uncorrelated to financial assets will be a highly rewarding investment. Thus, I urge our readers to gradually accumulate physical gold." Mr. Faber's complete thinking on the current economy and gold is available at our Gilded Opinion section (Please go to the link above.) And the London Sunday Times yesterday told its readers, "As an investment, the metal may have been horribly out of fashion for the past decade, but with world economies continuing to slide, gold could be about to stage a revival. . . [S]ome metals analysts believe it could soon break through the $300 barrier and climb to $350. It seems that sentiment is changing in gold's favor.That's its for today, fellow goldmeisters. More in a day or two. MK USAGOLD (08/27/01; 08:31:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 60326) Today's Commentary & Review. . . Note: Note: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the concepts addressed briefly below are covered in detail in our upcoming 32-page Quarterly Review. Please go to the link above to register for your packet.Having problems with the Fetch function this morning, so you'll have trouble getting into the Commentary & Review until Randy figures out what the problem is. Thanks for your patience, and after all the nice things I said about the internet yesterday.Thanks for your kind comments, Rich and Gandalf. . . . In Brief: Gold tracked sideways to start the week. We'll know more about where the economy is headed as the week progresses. Tuesday the Consumer Confidence report is released. Wednesday we get GDP and Friday Factory Orders will be reported along with the Michigan Sentiment index. A number of analysts came out over the past week in favor of gold ownership. One notable report from the BBC highlighted rumors of a major hedge fund on the ropes. Reminiscent of the problems with Long Term Capital Management a few years back, one international investment fund warned that the U.S. stock market would be the most vulnerable if this un-named hedge fund collapsed. John H Mesrobian at Constantinople Advisers said investors "should be bailing out of the US market, where the bubble would be likely to burst first, and should be selling the dollar and buying the euro, and gold." Similarly widely-followed Hong Kong investment advisor, Marc Faber has come out in favor of gold ownership. "The gold bear market is more than 20 years old and has either already ended or is at least approaching its end, as more and more investors will come to share my view that something simply doesn't add up in the present monetary system (which isn't really a system) and that one day the ownership of a store of value that is totally uncorrelated to financial assets will be a highly rewarding investment. Thus, I urge our readers to gradually accumulate physical gold." Mr. Faber's complete thinking on the current economy and gold is available at our Gilded Opinion section (Please go to the link above.) And the London Sunday Times yesterday told its readers, "As an investment, the metal may have been horribly out of fashion for the past decade, but with world economies continuing to slide, gold could be about to stage a revival. . . [S]ome metals analysts believe it could soon break through the $300 barrier and climb to $350. It seems that sentiment is changing in gold's favor.That's its for today, fellow goldmeisters. More in a day or two. MK Belgian (08/27/01; 07:33:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 60325) Reflecting on the Gold - Labyrinth...as a student ! 20 days without USAGOLD on a modest French castle and plenty of time to look again at * Gold *, from a different angle. 140.000 tonnes aboveground Gold valued with 1 Trillion of green paper. And these 1 Trillion US$ in perspective of 75 million Barrils of crude oil, vaporized per day. Crude oil as source of energy but much more important as the vital and unique source for at least 5.000 (chemical) derivates ! 1 Trillion US$ against a global GDP of 40 Trillion (actual) US$. A, from now on, declining amount of newly mined Gold, yearly added to the total volume of 140.000 tonnes. 2.500 tonnes / year at today's valuation in perspective with yearly added DEBT (growth)...etc...etc...Obscene dis-proportions. >>> GOLD IS UNBELIEVABLY CHEAP >>> I've come to realize the tremendous power of Gold ! How is it possible that this ABSOLUTE RULER (gold) is valued at its ordinarry lowest production cost ? Only two extreme opposite, intuitive, answers are possible : Gold is totally worthless and insignificant or Gold is the most dangerous "absolutist" on earth ! As soon as the Gold-Emperor awakes from the past hibernation...we will realize how absolutely powerfull its impact will be on everything. Gold's recent past (from '71) and present valuation is so absurd that there can only be one justification for it. Too dangerous toy for occasional adventurists. The Gold-Rulers don't mind, lilliputans, to accumulate physical gold for possesion. But it is absolute forbidden stuff for would-be Giants and temporary, occasional, succesfull fiat generators, who want to have a Gold-play. The real Gold-Rulers can be no other than "the" exclusive Arabian oils.So many other Private Powers, could easely, "cartel" (+ hedge) and have a temporary gold-corner-play. They don't !The absolute silence and secrecy on Gold together with the absurd valuation is absolute evidence of something very,very,very BIG ! Nobody is allowed to play and fool around with *GOLD*. Our Guides here, are the only no-nonsense, visionairs on Gold. The gold-silence-secrecy, can only be maintained, through, permanent ridiculing Gold's valuation and off radar low flight. This, as to keep any cornering candidates at a safe distance.The above reflexions are not based on our Guide's thougths. Price and time behaviour of Gold for the past 30 years are absolutely artificial...non commodity and a combination of political and private (oil) management ! A distant vieuw on a 30 year POO chart with its horizontal price range, is indicating a relationship with Gold. The emperor (gold) and his elite troops (Arab oils) have geopolitically manoeuvered in the US$ ocean. Gold and Oil are in mutation. They are both so absolutely powerfull that they can act as a disciplined global duo fully matured. They don't want to frighten the global economy. They don't want to abuse their absolute power. But they don't want to be part of any bankruptcy. With the US$ if possible, without the US$ if necessary. Gold and Oil act as responsible global parents who don't want to frighten their children as to keep them in optimal productive condition. So far, so good ! BR549 (08/27/01; 07:04:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 60324) The Federal Reserve of NY, ESF, Treasury, foreign exchange, intervention, swaps, warehousing, FOMC, foreign currency sales & repurchases http://www.newyorkfed.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed14.html "ESF operations are conducted through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its capacity as fiscal agent for the Treasury. The New York Fed, which executes foreign operations on behalf of the Federal Reserve System and the Treasury, acts as an intermediary for the parties involved when the ESF provides short-term financing to foreign governments. However, it neither guarantees, nor profits from, the loans. Several times each day, the foreign exchange trading desk of the New York Fed provides current information on market conditions to the Treasury. Whenever necessary, the trading desk buys or sells foreign currencies on behalf of the Treasury, through the ESF, for intervention purposes. Treasury and Federal Reserve foreign exchange operations are closely coordinated and typically are conducted jointly. Operations on behalf of the Treasury are made under the legal authority of the Secretary of the Treasury and those for the Federal Reserve System under the legal authority of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's policy-making group. The ESF does not provide financing to the Federal Reserve System for foreign exchange operations. Rather, the Federal Reserve participates with its own funds. The Treasury reimburses the New York Fed for expenses incurred in carrying out Treasury actions. Since 1963, the Federal Reserve occasionally engaged in "warehousing" transactions with the ESF. In warehousing a transaction, the ESF sells foreign currencies to the Federal Reserve for dollars and simultaneously arranges to repurchase them, typically within a year. The dollars are immediately credited to the Treasury's account at the New York Fed, and the Federal Reserve invests the warehoused foreign currency, separate from its regular accounts, to earn a market rate of return. Any effect warehousing has on domestic bank reserves is offset by open market operations. ESF accounts and activities are subject to Congressional oversight. The Treasury provides monthly reports on U.S. intervention activities and a monthly financial statement of the ESF to Congress on a confidential basis. In addition, the quarterly report to Congress by the New York Fed's manager of foreign operations, covering Treasury and Federal Reserve foreign exchange operations, is issued publicly by the New York Fed."BR549-I have been unable to locate this ESF report to Congress to date. Maybe the "confidential basis" negates the public's right to know. Warehousing is done by the NY Fed as an agent for the Secretary of the Treasury and includes SWAPS of currency (and Gold?). I have been unable to find anything on the NY Fed's Manager of foreign exchange operations. There is a definite link between the FOMC, Treasury, and foreign currencies (gold) used as collateral for short term loans (1 year swaps with guaranteed buy-backs). It looks as all of these operations are only reported quarterly and secretly on a need to know basis to Congress. Chris Powell-Does GATA have this latest ESF Report to Congress? CoBra(too) (08/27/01; 06:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 60323) Main Street meets the brick layers of Wall Street ... in D.C.? Some snippets from a veteran Wall Street friend of mine, which are along the same lines as Netkings Prubear quotes. Though, first this guy has been one of the first summa cum laude Laureates of Harvard after 1945 and answered a re-union summons by Summers with the outcry - hey, never again try - since I'd never mingle with the clever eco spinmeisters - ever! (ever the poet, huh, BR549)- Snip from his latest letter to friends:The change in the long-wave cycle has begun and we are moving from what has been a dozen years of "good outcomes", into that part of the cycle identified as the "nine years of trouble". The effects of this change will be gradual (my note - also may come in form of a panic, when the market 'machinations' of the past become public), but eventually discernable in all areas of human endeavor. ... trim your expectations and gird yourself for some major disappointments. ... we measure performance bvy gains made, and not by losses avoided ... (So far so clear) followed by Economy - slowdown has been sharper than expected and I no longer disagree with those labeling it a recession. ... without some "figure cooking" (my take: even Main Street would have come to the conclusion by now) Interest Rates-(his thoughts seem similar to K. Richebaecher here and Currencies - mostly disagree, though did so for some years now - as I have to add to my detriment). GOLD: (and that's interesting) - feels that one of the principal reasons for the $-reserve currency was that the country's reserve assets included one of the largest gold reserves among all nations (and all other well discussed reasons for the $ supremacy- goes on to discuss James Turk and mostly agrees a large part of US gold being compromised). ... Ex-president Reagan once made the observation that no great nation ever remained great when it had run out of gold. ... and more news as the matter of Reg. Howe vs the BIS, et al will be forthcoming shortly. ... and much more about the SM's, where I mostly disagree, though that's more my nature than reasonable thought, as I'm still caught (up) in a black and white (not Scholes, mind thee) global perspective, since the more colors seem to disagree with my pedigree, effective(ly). see u cb2Hello, MK, great stuff on your Sunday remedies ... g.a. please ... Netking (08/27/01; 05:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 60322) Fool's Gold http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htm Snippit: from Prudential Bear:There is only one thing for investors to do today, and that is to sell all dollars, stocks and bonds, and to buy gold, and gold stocks instead. The market will force this very outcome, in our opinion, and indeed, it is already doing that… the market is fighting the Fed.The sheer controversy of that statement alone is enough reason for us to get bullish on gold. But please don't try that smugness at home. The biggest reason of all, to buy gold, for real, is that everybody else says that they don't see any inflation either now or for the future. . .William Dudley, Goldman Sach's chief US economist, last Wednesday:The longer policymakers persist in their efforts to influence the exchange rate, the greater the danger of an unnecessarily sharp correction becomes. If the dollar began to slide, the credibility of policymakers would be called into question. This could lead to an even greater depreciation, as foreign investors demanded a bigger risk premium on US financial assets.There are good reasons to suppose that Treasury comments have artificially supported the dollar's valuation somewhat…...But while the strong dollar rhetoric may have worked to date, continued adherence to it is becoming risky. The fundamentals of the chronic large current account deficit point to a change in the exchange rate over the medium to long term. If the mantra is still in place when this happens, the loss of credibility could exacerbate the dollar's decline.Policymakers should let market forces determine the dollar's value. Abandoning the strong dollar policy now, when the appetite for US assets is still strong, when policy is still credible, would probably lead to a somewhat weaker currency. But if the decline were controlled, there would be no great harm in that. The alternative - of waiting until the policy falls apart - will make the economic adjustment more painful than it needs to be.Conclusion:Like we said two weeks ago, Gold, Energies, and the Grains will lead the CRB out of its correction, paving the way for an inflation breakout. . . Netking (8/27/01; 04:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 60321) Iraq Says It Shoots Down U.S. Spy Plane http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=topnews&StoryID=181554 Meanwhile from Reuters: "The Iraqi army said Monday its air defenses had shot down a U.S. reconnaissance plane while it was flying over southern Iraq . . . "This was an advanced plane which the Americans used during their aggression on Yugoslavia" (said Iraq)There was no immediate confirmation from the United States Netking (8/27/01; 03:44:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 60320) PFLP Head Killed by Israel http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=8747&PHPSESSID=74bcc5aaba4b17ecf3eaed92e9dd0867 Snippit:Israeli forces killed Abu Ali Mustapha, the acting leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization, late this morning. This marked the highest-ranking Palestinian political and military leader killed by Israel in its long war against terrorism in many years . . . Environment Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said that Israel's policy is totally one of self-defense, and that even if this could be considered an escalation, "the Palestinians would be well-advised to take the hint." The Invisible Hand (08/27/01; 02:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 60319) Oops! Didn't see that the author of the article was the same as the author of the regular ad. I hope this doesn't contravene the Discussion Forum Guidelines. The Invisible Hand (08/27/01; 01:52:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 60318) On WND - More than an ad http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24225 Gold demand up despite slow economy…While gold has been historically seen as a hedge against volatile markets and a weakening dollar, more and more investors are now looking to gold for profit and protection for both savings and retirement accounts. In fact, gold is already up 10 percent since its recent low and continues to outperform 90 percent of stock equity funds this year. While no one knows exactly how high gold prices will go in the next 12 to 18 months, one thing remains certain – many investors are now taking gold more seriously. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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