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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/20/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) TownCrier (11/20/02; 23:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 90010) Gold haikus revisited... You guys have been great!R. Waverider (11/20/02; 23:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 90009) Japanese banks face profit struggle as reforms set in http://asia.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=E5RMGH5WCT3ZWCRBAEOCFEY?type=businessnews&StoryID=1778809 Snippit:"Japan's top banks will probably stick to full-year net profit forecasts when they report interim results on Monday, but analysts say another year in the red is more realistic and want to see deeper restructuring. Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka has yet to outline how he plans to make good on proposals to speed up the disposal of bad loans, including the use of a new state-backed entity to buy loans from banks and help revive firms it deems viable. Two risk factors weighing on banks' balance sheets -- stockholding losses and loan-loss charges -- are dependent on how strictly the government applies new loan and capital standards and how the market evaluates the impact on banks."Waverider: More on the Japanese bankster saga, meanwhile Mizuho Holdings jumped 18% in Tokyo tonight - short covering or PPT...Mizuho HoldingJolt of lost hope and despairYen yen in Heaven! Operative (11/20/02; 22:56:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 90008) U.S. Bank In Hot Water http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,844169,00.html Morgan Stanley tells investors to pull out of companies with union workers citing pension funds can be a drag on corp.profits. Course, companies like Enron & Worldcom which were non union were a really safe bet. Yeah, right. ElGordo (11/20/02; 22:47:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 90007) Explosion in Israel JERUSALEM (Reuters) - An explosion rocked a bus in Jerusalem during morning rush hour Thursday, causing an unknown number of casualties, Israeli police said. No other details were immediately available as rescue workers rushed to the scene. Pizz (11/20/02; 22:11:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 90006) Derivatives With all the talk of Greenspan and derivatives, after reading a few posts, and a couple references to the hedge fund in drag, JPM, thought a couple comments might be in order.First observation, if there isn't a problem, just why is Greenspan going overboard trying to say there isn't. That's one big red flag he's flying. In business most theives are caught trying to cover over or overexpain their actions or positions.Systemic, chain reaction risk? Follow this senario.Let's say you are in charge of a huge, expanding dervatives portfolio at a major financial institution. Gold, interest rates, stocks, commodities, etc. etc.Big business and a lot of fees, BUT, the whole portfolio should be risk neutral to the point that you don't pull a LTCM. And you use computers and Phd's to develop algorithms based upon past relationships to balance your risk. A simple example would be buying the S&P 500 stocks and hedging yourself by buying SPX puts. To stress test this simple senario would be to project a 25% drop in the S&P. You lose money on the stocks, make money on the puts, for say a break even. If the market goes up 25%, you make money on the stocks and the premium you paid for the puts that will expire worthless is minimal and treated as insurance expense. It's a win, break even senario.Now let's talk about gold. According to Gibson's Paradox, and past history, if real interest rates go down, gold is supposed to go up. Less carrying cost for gold, and a looser money supply that's usually inflationary.But in the 90's, Rubin and crew managed to make gold go down along with interest rates. Now, if my OVERALL risk model includes the gold derivative portfolio, that is short gold in a falling rate environment, how do they have the interest rate derivatives model worked into this senario to balance the risk? Backwards just like the short gold position as an offset, or is it proper and not really offsetting? One way your books and computer models are correct - and you'll blow the whole system when the markets bring gold back into it's proper role, and the other way would be that they really don't offset and they've lied about their nuetral risk position. You can only do either by continuing to manipulate gold down and by zero transparancy on your derivatives portfolio - and we seem to have both.My guess is that the whole mess has gotten beyond ANYONES comprehention, that they're programing the computers for testing and audit to their positions and the results they want, rather than reality because the whole system has grown so large that no one has any idea of what the heck can happen. Have a problem, let Greenspan paper it over.When I see Greenspan giving this much lip service to a situation that he says doesn't have a problem - look out big time. It's ready to go.Buy gold, and don't spill coffee on your keyboard in the moring and try to post that evening. . . .Pizz Operative (11/20/02; 22:11:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 90005) @ slingshot "I do not believe Hope is lost. I feel their belief in the financial system has not been jolted into reality."If watching 7 trillion disappear from the stock markets does not "jolt" one's belief (more like blind faith)then what will? If reading almost daily headlines of corruption on Wall St does not raise an eyebrow, when will they begin to question the sanity? If your 401 K is now a 201 K do you wake up at 101 K? I think by the time they are jolted, they will have very little left to gather the gold. Until you show someone a gold coin and they ask, not what is it's cost, but what is the benefit of owning such, I will stick with my premise that Hope is lost. However, for the record and proper disclosure, it has been said of me that I have an ill attitude on thursdays anyway. <grin>Best to you this evening. ElGordo (11/20/02; 22:10:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 90004) S & P likes Gold = Rating 4 Stars http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2002/pi20021120_9592.htm Why Gold Bugs Are Swarming Again A series of positive developments raises rich possibilities for gains in the precious metal -- and for investors Investors are rediscovering gold. And gold-mining stocks' recent strong performance has landed the group back on the list of industries with top Standard & Poor's Relative Strength rankings. Year-to-date through Nov. 15, the S&P Gold subindex rose 9.1%, vs. a 20.1% decline for the S&P Super 1,500 (the combined S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600). S&P analyst Leo Larkin maintains a positive investment outlook for gold stocks. He notes that a sharp decline in interest rates since January, 2001, has made short-selling of the metal by producers and market speculators less profitable. Short-selling has been a major negative for gold prices in the past several years. Larkin has several other reasons for his positive outlook. He says equity markets are less likely to offer as much competition for investment demand. Double-digit rates of return for equities from 1995 through 1999 lured investor dollars away from gold and provided immense competition for the yellow metal. SHINING THROUGH. Larkin also cites rising commodity prices, reflecting consolidation in commodity-producing industries and a recovery in global economic growth. Through November 11, 2002, the Bridge Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Commodity Price Index was up 19.1% after a 16.3% drop in 2001. A rebound in the global economy and large increases in the U.S. money supply should lift commodity prices in 2003, according to Larkin. And that means inflation will still be a factor for investors to contend with -- playing to gold's traditional role as a hedge against rising prices for goods and services. As for supplies of the metal itself, Larkin notes that the deficit between gold production and consumption will widen as output declines and demand increases. The low gold prices of the past several years have led to sharply reduced exploration for new mines, and will result in lower production even if the metal's price rises dramatically. ___________Great article in BuisnessWeek! Chris Powell (11/20/02; 22:09:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 90003) GATA wants a debate http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1302 GATA challenges Societie Generale, World GoldCouncil, and Prospector Asset Management's Len Kaplan to a debate on gold price manipulationany time, anywhere, at GATA's expense.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Sundeck (11/20/02; 20:54:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 90002) Greenspan on derivatives To me, Mr Greenspan's recent "cascading sequence" speech is reminiscent of his "irrational exuberance" speech six years ago. Was he then uttering a futile warning to irrational investors? Is he now issuing a futile warning to bathers about to be "Buffetted" in the sea of "sewage"? (Please excuse the pun!)It seems to me that the notional value of derivatives enacted to supposedly offset risk can increase without bound. Especially in an unregulated system. Dream up a new product around a new risk and sell it. However, estimating the probabilities involved is impossible since there is no sensibly large sample of relevant data upon which to base the estimate. A lot of money is presumeably made during the writing of these "insurance policies" and these "commissions" impose a net drain on productive activity throughout the economy. However, worse still, because the estimates of risk probabilities are seriously lacking, sooner or later some counterparties will fail. The great unwinding - the "cascading sequence" - is totally unpredicatable in either magnitude or timing. Is this what Greenspan is saying?Sundeck slingshot (11/20/02; 20:48:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 90001) Haiku *************** History cares not.Civilizations, names, faces.Gold, brings them to light. Slowman (11/20/02; 20:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 90000) Silver Just had a long talk with a market maker in my area. He told me there was no shortage of gold and silver other than in FORM. What he was saying was physical for delivery was short, not, paper commodity trades. Guess we should be buying physical rather than the mining stocks.Finally talked a friend into some coin. He bought some soverigns and 2 rand pieces. But, only 10 pieces, however, its a start. Maybe some day he will thank me. Leigh (11/20/02; 20:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89999) A Haiku to Honor "Gold and the Velvet Rope" Thanks, Black Blade, for posting Farfel's EXCELLENT essay "Gold and the Velvet Rope." I wrote a haiku in honor of it.The vulgar despiseGold, a simple elementDraw the velvet rope! GoldnSilver2002 (11/20/02; 20:33:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89998) A new floor around 318? Just some personal observations'since the chinese exchange opened gold's floor has slowly risen to the now 318 per oz mark.It seems the game of shaking the trees(hitting p.o.g) and collecting the cheap gold and gold shares are coming to an end.As i said the gold mining shares would now go up due to ceo greed which is prevalent through out the markets.Although i will admit they have refused to retreat as they did before,gold shares since july have preformed pathetically even compared to the dow.I see this game coming to an end in early 2003 as the banks etc realize there is no more cheap gold to be had.At this point the only way they can make money is to buy gold and let it ride.You see there is a simple way out of this mess for the cabal,banks etc.Simply buy gold just before you release it upwards.I read the recent world gold council comments about "no one wants an 850 per oz gold!..no one" and thought how sad the enemy is in our camp,from the ceo's to the world gold council.Their plan is very simple take the gold from the common man,endebt him(enslave),crash his assets(houses'stocks) and then let gold fly buying everything up at 10 cents on the dollar at the all the fire sales as people go belly up for lack of gold.One can note the recent 50 million share public offering by kinross to see the banks are slowly sifting into gold now.We are now at the last twinkling of greenspins dream,the leaves are falling,the chill is in the air.Wall st says that means summer is almost here buy your swimming trunks now!Gold bugs say,"its winter better stock up!"I dont know i read all the news,and its all bad.Must mean dow to 36,000 and another 13 year bull rally right?Only if you are stupid,corrupt and paid off.Hi cnbc!Hi american media....what a joke.Iraq could very well crack this puppy open,i wonder how many people have factoed in terrorist attacks on key american financial assets into their over priced shares lolI see a new slowly rising floor,caused by the fact that fewer and fewer are getting scared and dumping.Once this floor reaches 325 the cabal is finished.Buy your gold now,january is close at hand. a nation of one (11/20/02; 20:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89997) about the knighthood I just can hardly believe that the Queen of England knighted the man (Greenspan). Somebody should read her the riot act. Black Blade (11/20/02; 20:21:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89996) Gold and the Velvet Rope http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/farfel112202.html Snippit:For example, if I introduce the topic of gold, I always note that it is one of the favorite investments of the billionaire class (e.g. Buffett, Soros, Gates, Bronfman, etc.) but not one that I would encourage the average guy to own. In other words, in verbal terms, I immediately establish a velvet rope around the metal."You need to understand money first"..." You need to have the right connections to buy the metal in any kind of size"...."You need a minimum net worth"... "It's for richer, financially sophisticated types, NOT for you"... "You need to have the ability to protect it"...."You need a minimum education level to understand what it's all about" ...."Why do you think Wall Street never promotes gold to the average citizen?"I provide a litany of reasons why gold is an exclusive investment ...and nothing bothers Joe Citizen more than the idea that there is some special investment out there which stands to outperform all his other investments, yet remains a special privilege of the "moneyed or connected class." Inevitably, he wants in and wants in badly.Black Blade: I have to hand it to Farfel, he makes an entertaining read. Reverse psychology according to Farfel. Maybe it should be called "The World According To Farfel". Yeah, there's a certain logic to it. Interesting and humorous too. a nation of one (11/20/02; 20:19:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89995) an analysis "More fundamentally, we should recognize that if we choose to enjoy the advantages of a system of leveraged financial intermediaries, the burden of managing risk in the financial system will not lie with the private sector alone. Leveraging always carries with it the remote possibility of a chain reaction, a cascading sequence of defaults that will culminate in financial implosion if it proceeds unchecked. Only a central bank, with its unlimited power to create money, can with a high probability thwart such a process before it becomes destructive. Hence, central banks have, of necessity, been drawn into becoming lenders of last resort." -Greenspan.In my opinion, anyone who works hard to express his own ideas accurately and clearly must recognize that the above quote is pretentious, deliberately obscuring, unnecessarily complicated, and is not true.About the sentences, in order of their appearance:1. Who is he talking about when he says, "...If we choose to enjoy...?" Who is enjoying? And who is choosing? Not the American public. They have no choice. Not really. He is talking about himself and the Federal Reserve banks. Thay are "...Choosing to enjoy...." Only they have the power to enjoy the advantages he is talking about, and only he and they have the power to enjoy it. Who is the private sector, exactly? The public? Isn't everybody in this country, sense, a member of the 'private sector?' Who isn't? What he is saying is old hat, that the 'public sector is going to have to manage the risk. Who is that? The government. The government is going to have to bail out Alan Greenspan's cronies and the people the Federal Reserve System selfishly made borrowing money easy for. The Federal Reserve is demanding that the Government take responsibility for Alan Greenspan's criminal actions of creating the bubbles and enabling the collapses. That's what he's saying in the first sentence.2. The word 'remote' is a lie. It is an attempt to minimize the appearance that there is a problem. But the truth is that debt always creates more problems than it solves. That is its nature. But he cannot say this. If he did, people would realize what kind of business he is in. In fact, he is a crook in charge of a nation's money system, and he uses it for his own purposes and to produce income for the shareholders of the member banks. In this sentence, he is also foreshadowing the calamity that he knows will come. Then he will be able to say he warned everybody. But the calamity is an inevitable outcome of the business of the Central Bank, the so-called Federal Reserve System. He is playing a game with the American people's money, and he is trying to make it seem that he is not. He is lying about it.3. In sentence 3, he asserts his power as a saviour, salting his expressions with a disclaimer that his ability to save everybody is only a 'high probability.' So when it turns out that all he can do is postpone it, or mitigate it, or exploit it, he can say that he told us so.4. Sentence four is a lie. The role of the Federal Reserve as a lender of last resort is a goal which he and his predecessors and the founders of the Federal Reserve have worked hard to achieve for the benefit of themselves and each other, against the laws of our nation, and by dishonest means. miner49er (11/20/02; 20:07:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89994) Haiku Sands of human dreamsQuiet moment, ebb is flowSilent draw of moon Sundeck (11/20/02; 20:06:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89993) Waverider - Haiku You're welcome :-)Gold price going down?Ride the cabal out of town!Lest we gold bugs drown.Gold price on the rise?What a very nice surprise!...saved from our demise. Leigh (11/20/02; 20:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 89992) Haikus Gold...elegant, pureSilent judge of modern manMan is found wanting******'Mid stacks of goldOur enemies nod and smileFinancial doomsday TownCrier (11/20/02; 20:01:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 89991) Gold haikus... I am glad to say I have not been disappointed!I just know there are some really good ones still simmering on the stove out there somewhere. Let's have them.R. Black Blade (11/20/02; 19:59:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89990) Re: goldquest - Russians It can't hurt. I have been rather disappointed in what I considered the inept management of Stillwater. They are fairly close to where I am. They had a tendency to sell forward at the most inopportune times (and at the lowest prices). Of course Norilsk Nickel acquires their domestic production as by-product metal from a grossly inefficient operation at a time when the primary nickel and copper prices are at a very low price making domestic production rather costly, so they may need Stillwater to meet their obligations. It has been rumored that Russia sold off their PGM stockpiles long ago to meet hard currency needs associated with the Russian bond default in 1998. That rumor was passed on to me by a couple of friends who were involved in the production end. I have not been able to confirm that and the Russia government has issued denials, so who knows. However, with their consistent delays in delivery it was assumed that they were attempting to meet their delivery obligations from current production. I suspect that Norilsk controlled management just may be better for the Stillwater venture in the long run. Time will tell. Cheers!- Black Blade a nation of one (11/20/02; 19:55:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89989) English translation A. Greenspan says: "More fundamentally, we should recognize that if we choose to enjoy the advantages of a system of leveraged financial intermediaries, the burden of managing risk in the financial system will not lie with the private sector alone. Leveraging always carries with it the remote possibility of a chain reaction, a cascading sequence of defaults that will culminate in financial implosion if it proceeds unchecked. Only a central bank, with its unlimited power to create money, can with a high probability thwart such a process before it becomes destructive. Hence, central banks have, of necessity, been drawn into becoming lenders of last resort.Here it what it would look like in unpretentious English: "Basically, if our system depends on endebted middlemen, they must expect to share the risk. Debt causes calamity. This calamity creates problems for viable businesses, which are likely to end in bankruptcy. Only I (Alan Greenspan) prevent this. Therefore I am the biggest lender.Greenspan is a charlatan. GratefulForGold (11/20/02; 19:51:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 89988) "Bastardized Haiku" What a wonderful day of posts to catch up on! Thank you, Randy, for the Haiku suggestion!Fear creeps silently.No! It will not overcome!Gold! waits patiently....Nay, naivete!Maturity is coming!Gold! will lead the way....Harsh and sharp their might.Ach! Pain sears...quickly blinding.Gold! the shining light.... Light replaces dark.Dim hope to dawning wisdom.Gold! alert, we hark....Truth and liberty – The premises unbroken.Gold! for eyes that see....Lost, but now we've foundOur anchor. It waits with strength!Gold! our trust abounds....Winter turns to spring.Decay...to life...to loving.Gold! the angels sing....Praise to life and love!Hope that leads to redemption.Gold! from God above.(With apologies to the masters et al.) Black Blade (11/20/02; 19:49:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 89987) Re: ElGordo - NatGas Supply http://highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm The chart (see link) tells the story. As I have been saying, this winter and early spring could have serious repercussions on the cost of energy. The peak of storage was reached early this year. The so clled "experts" failed to account for the 300+ new NG-fired power plants consuming energy over the last couple of years and the fact that the recession and warm winter last year reduced energy demand. Tomorrow's numbers could surprise, though the recent ice storms and colder weather last and early this week won't show up until the following week's data. Also, more cold weather is forecast next week. I think that a lot of Wall Street analysts are going to be caught flat-footed and have a lot of explaining to do to their employers. The only way out is for a concerted effort by producers in the dead of winter (well past drilling season) to even have a chance of turning this situation around. Not a very likely scenario as many want a higher price to make such an effort pay off. Even so, it is likely that even that won't work as the infrastructure is lacking for transport and distribution. And the lead time required for meeting environmental demands and the permitting process could mean it's going to be a long cold winter. The implications are obvious for the corporate bottom line and consumer pocket books. Inflation due to rocketing energy costs could be the least of the US economy's problems. This could translate into a long term event. There is always a cost to not making preparations. "Interesting Times"- Black Blade goldquest (11/20/02; 19:44:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 89986) Heads Up BB! The Russians Are Coming To Montana! http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/021120/stillwater_mining_1.html Norilsk Nickel to buy the majority of Stillwater Mining. Waverider (11/20/02; 19:43:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89985) VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html DMR reminder...And WOWSERS - excellent Haiku - every one of them, Sundeck - very funny! ElGordo (11/20/02; 19:29:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89984) Nat Gas more in demand this winter WASHINGTON Nov8 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer bills for natural gas this winter will rise by 25 percent, more than previously estimated, the federal government said on Friday.Last month, the Energy Information Administration estimated the average U.S. home heating bill for natural gas would rise 19 percent from one year ago.The increase is largely due to the fact that last winter was the warmest on record and this winter is expected to have normal, colder temperatures. sector (11/20/02; 19:16:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89983) @ Black Blade Certain folks at Mineweb asserted that MDG was high grading, that their geology team left, etc. (1) MDG's chief geologist is on leave for family medical reasons. His wife had a 1 lb. premature child. MDG's field staff is VERY deep. The "Team" didn't leave.(2) MDG's 14 gm/t ore grade is being exceeded only because their LATEST reserve grade discoveries [At bonanza levels on Vista Norte] proportionatly raise their aggregate reserve values-- a fact unappreciated by Mineweb.A tempest in a teapot and a hedger bias in a brickbat.As for "Conspiracy theories", JPM was found guilty by a Federal Judge in the Sumitomo, Hamanaka copper fraud case that involved offshore SPE $500,000,000 accounts not unlike the Enron play book and similar to the methodology admitted to by top Enron traders.JPM is a three-time-loser in fraudulent market manipulation scams.The conspiracy to manipulate the gold market is all-too-real and quite mainstream these days. In fact Greenspan half-way endorsed intervention in so many words in his Mexico speech a few day ago.It's important for neophytes to appreciate the implications of a rigged gold price. At the core of this scam, metal must be sold. That metal is running out. Each day that this news diffuses outward to reach more investors and speculators is one day less of required manipulation "fuel". One day more of rising bids and physical accumulation. They are in a vice. They cannot escape.As wise men here have said before, there are two markets. One trades paper one exchanges physical. While almost everyone watches the paper wars, it's the metal wars that ultimatly decide to outcome. I can tell you that the cabal is losing the metal wars.The cabal's gunners are running out of ammunition, the AAA fire is thinning. To be sure they defend $325 DIVG but cannot drive GATA's bombers down but a few bucks. GATA can claim Air Superiority. In fact, there are COMEX facts suggesting a price tilt to $340 beginning with the next, crammed full trading contract which ends in late Dec.While credible information regarding just how much metal is left is almost impossible to come by, there ARE clear indicators [Not yet published by our side] that give us optimistism. Moreover, public indicators such as the falling LBMA silver volume point to the first Quarter of 2003 as the last of the trading volume in silver. If silver fails at LBMA gold gets carried too.Monetary authorities are fighting a losing battle here. Their unsustainable macroeconomic policies are failing badly. The fact that lemmings on Wall Street drive the DOW and NASDAQ up is but an absurd side show. Trade balance is one. The really BIG factor for gold is the negative real interest rates that are falling deeper into the red.Keep watching Japan. The yen is rising through 122.7 right now on the way to 133 again. Gold in Japan sits like a tiger waiting...waiting.One does not need an inflation indicator to see their dividends vanish and their costs go up. The avid search for "Alternatives" is on and gold sits there...NOT falling. What a concept!When I first started investing in 1987 [two weeks before the crash] my broker [Still have him] asked what my investment "Goals " were. I said "Why are you asking such a thing?" " If you MUST have an answer, 'UP IS GOOD'".Today, "Not down" is pretty good too.The beauty of a physical gold investment [pun intended] is there is a near zero loss limit while a huge historical upside exists due to forced devaluation from unsustainable economic policies. Black Blade (11/20/02; 18:57:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89982) Energy Dept.: Oil Imports Will Grow http://www.gas.com/p/60/d4103bd05285.html?id=1019092 Snippit:WASHINGTON (AP) — Oil imports will continue to grow in the next decade with two of every three barrels coming from overseas by 2025, the Energy Department predicted Wednesday. The long-term outlook, generated by the department's Energy Information Administration, said that net imports of oil and oil products will reach 68 percent of U.S. consumption by 2025, an increase from just over 55 percent today. America also will rely much more on foreign refineries to meet demand for gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel because of a shortage of refineries in this country, the report said. By 2025, refined products are expected to account for 34 percent of petroleum imports, more than twice the share today. The report also said the country's reliance on foreign sources of natural gas is expected to increase significantly, although some of that will depend on an expansion of pipelines from Canada and on construction of new terminals for imports of liquefied natural gas. The Bush administration and many congressional Republicans have often cited the growing reliance on petroleum imports as a reason to open more federal lands to oil and gas exploration, including drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Black Blade: Increased reliance on foreign petroleum will continue to be a source of conflict for Hydrocarbon Man. The economy is fueled on "cheap energy" and that could create potential for never ending conflict in foreign lands as the US economy is held hostage. silvercollector (11/20/02; 18:40:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89981) Pondering Interesting the direct & inversely proportional relationship between gold and the dollar as of late. Seems gold pressing $330 was when the dollar was diving towards 104. Now that the dollar has reversed and approaches 106 gold swoons and dives below 320.What is the future of the dollar?Saw a startling notion last week. Apparently there is a fear that gold will not crack 330 anytime soon and producers are starting to 'lock in' again. Anyone watching who might be selling forward again?CRB back to 230, that's encouraging. ElGordo (11/20/02; 18:17:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89980) @ R Powell Hello Sir Powell-I find it amazing that the CRB is going up so powerfullyand inflation is so benign. How can that be?There HAS to be some inflation in the pipeline.Energy costs are going up, natural gas storage will startcoming down and if the economy picks up or we have acold winter, oil inventories are way below last years levels.So....we should see energy costs driving inflation. Mr. Bill (11/20/02; 18:16:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 89979) haiku StirringFrom golden slumber,Reincarnation cometh Lamprey (11/20/02; 18:14:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89978) haiku Gold - its power shines!My labor's wealth now secure,Anonymity. Sundeck (11/20/02; 18:04:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89977) Haiku Oh five, seven, five,Once I caught a fish alive!...now I've lost the drive.Oh five, seven, five,Through Life, Love and Labour strive...Lost...but still alive!Oh five, seven, five,Gold and Silver's Sun revive,Upward, onward strive!Time and Thought contrive!How much verse can one derive?From five, seven, five...:-)Sundeck Black Blade (11/20/02; 18:03:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89976) Argentines face price rises http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2494481.stm Snippit:The price of water, power and other basic services in poverty-stricken Argentina is to rise by presidential decree, in an attempt to secure new international loans. The decree, by-passing legally required public hearings, would lift prices by about 10%. The International Monetary Fund has asked for a 30% rise before it is prepared to refinance loans owed to it and other multilateral agencies. The rises will be a blow for Argentines, some of whom are already starving to death because of the country's economic crisis. Argentina, which is considered South America's breadbasket, is the world's fifth-largest exporter of agricultural products. The government wants to refinance $15bn in loans due this and next year to the IMF, World Bank and Inter-American Bank. Argentina defaulted on a further $805m owed to the World Bank last week. Black Blade: Can't happen here? That's what the Argentines thought too. Meanwhile the IMF is exacerbating the problem for Argentines. Former Senator and presidential aspirant Jack Kemp has been critical of the IMF and rightly so. The situation in Argentina is spinning out of control, as there is no conceivable way for them to extricate themselves from this mess. Uruguay and Paraguay are in the same boat as Brazil will soon be. Already Venezuela is on the fast track to follow in Argentina's footsteps. Sadly these countries are resource rich and the papering over of assets by moneyed interests (such as the IMF) are creating unheard of devastation south of the US borders. This problem will likely spread north and land on the doorstep of the US and possibly bring down some huge financial institutions. In a word – "Grim". As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt (this can't be stressed strongly enough as debt is "slavery"), stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses (a currency crisis can strike anywhere), accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance (the only ultimate money – even Alan Greenspan admits as much), and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities (see above article). In the final analysis the only person you can depend on is yourself. If you don't believe that then you are seriously deluded. steady (11/20/02; 18:02:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89975) my attempt... gold haiku honest foreverschreeching fiat to a halta new era from here mikal (11/20/02; 17:44:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89974) Haikus Golden cherubs riseSinging, dancing, laughingAt the horizon's edgeSweet sun beget lifeFuse water, air, earthGold sparks your birth goldenpeace (11/20/02; 17:36:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 89973) haiku golden sunset's peace;patient, i trudge home anew...my heart remembers.received the Golden Mark from the contest today..thank you MK and all who participate here.Bowinggoldenpeace Black Blade (11/20/02; 17:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89972) Housing costs taking more of family budgets http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134579786_housing20.html Snippit: WASHINGTON — Many more low- and moderate-income working families are spending at least half their income on rent or mortgages, according to a study released yesterday by affordable-housing advocates. More than 4 million households fell into that category last year, a 67 percent increase in four years. The surge is due to increases in housing prices outstripping wages, said the Center for Housing Policy and its parent organization, the National Housing Conference. The result is many people must cut spending elsewhere, such as retirement savings, researchers said. Black Blade: With housing costs rising faster than income we are about to see a huge disconnect in the real estate bubble. When the bubble bursts it will be very ugly for those who plowed their savings into real estate, especially those who already suffered horrific losses in the stock market whether it be in 401K and IRA plans or taxable individual stock market accounts. In truth a "double whammy". Definitely get out of debt! For many time could be running out. Cometose (11/20/02; 17:16:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89971) OUR PROSPECTS Are we getting better????Someone got all warm inside today about something guaging by where the market indexes went ...Did we need a little market cushion ahead of tomorrow's reports....or was it the saber rattling I heard down on PENNSYLVANIA AVE....Heard Al Gore is running for President in the next election.Is he betting the economy is turning sour on the GOP?WIll the war on terrorism stall out after the War On Iraq and it's reaction from the Arab WORLD?Will the flow of oil be impeded? Interrupted? DOes anyone know what caused the latest tanker to split in Half?Was it another TORPEDO? Do the ARABS now have SUBmarines at their disposal? Or are they getting help from collaborators? Who are the collaborators? Will the attack on Iraq bring a counterattack in terrorism...Will this result in a Nuke going off or several ?How will this effect the eonomy....and world finance and world fiat...How about the banking system???What is a positive outcome in this masquerade??? Will BUsh get reelected ....will the GOP prevail???? in 2004?Will we mop up the rest of the ARAB world after the next retalliation....will this lead to WWIII .....after WWIII , who will control oil....???? CAn we program all of these events into a computer and get a map of the future? WHO pays for the computer?ARe the intersts of the people who pay for the computer being put first.....WHat's the cost of Homeland security ?If things go bad who will be the scapegoat(s).....What's the cost of this far flung escapade.....compared to the cost of cleaning up the financial mess that may really be at the root of all this evil? WHAT IS THE AGENDA of the people running the programs in the Computer???? WHAT IS YOUR HOPE FOR THE FUTURE???WHAT WILL THAT LOOK LIKE IN 2,3,5,10 years....What was the computer's answer when asked about THERMONUCLEAR WAR IN the movie 'War GAMES'? IS someone going to save the day ???Did someone ask for someone to save the day????If the fallout of the next several months causes more financial ruin in Global markets....due to the other sideswill to undermine the dollar hegemony,,,will GOLD be outlawed???? ANYone had the time to read HOMELAND SECURITY???? DOES IT WORK ??? IS IT WORTH THE COST???In ten years are we going to be better off ..???How about the rest of the world???? SOMeone once said that the direction that the world (society) goes is based on the questions that are being asked ??? If we are going in the wrong direciton ,is it because the wrong people are asking the wrong question?? Who is asking the questions via what media???Are we watching too much TV and listening to too little music...???Is GRACE SLICK going to make a comeback???IS PROTEST as a form of FREEDOM OF SPEECH going to become FASHIONABLE AGAIN???DID VIETNAM BECOME AN UNFASHIONABLE POLITICAL ESCAPADE???DOES THE VOTER"S vote and PROTESTOR's civil disobedience still paint a picture in live video stream when aired on National TV...IS a picture worth a thousand words....Will the FOURTH BRANCH of REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT please stand up and be heard to change the course of human events????WHat is the cost of peace? Black Blade (11/20/02; 16:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 89970) Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021119/default.htm Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan - Before the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C. November 19, 2002 Snippit:More fundamentally, we should recognize that if we choose to enjoy the advantages of a system of leveraged financial intermediaries, the burden of managing risk in the financial system will not lie with the private sector alone. Leveraging always carries with it the remote possibility of a chain reaction, a cascading sequence of defaults that will culminate in financial implosion if it proceeds unchecked. Only a central bank, with its unlimited power to create money, can with a high probability thwart such a process before it becomes destructive. Hence, central banks have, of necessity, been drawn into becoming lenders of last resort. – Alan GreenspanBlack Blade: Scary reading. Waverider (11/20/02; 16:32:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89969) More Haiku for you... RPowell on a tearThrice, Haiku words to expressWisdom of thought!:) slingshot (11/20/02; 16:21:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89968) Putting the Gold where your Mouth Is. Operative It is not Dumb Down anymore, It is Mush Down.Well I wanted to step up to the plate and decided to bring a few 1 0z of Gold into work to try and spark interest. At first they wanted to touch the coins and some questions about the cost. No questions as to how to acquire them. I had to invite them over to my computer and pull up USAGOLD and give them a run through. None had ever held a gold coin before. I waited a few days to see if anyone would ask about the subject and nothing happened. Not a word.You can lead a horse to water, but you can not make him drink.I do not believe Hope is lost. I feel their belief in the financial system has not been jolted into reality.So, I will just keep plugging along . Waiting for a change in the wind. Waiting for someone to ask, "What was the name of that Website?"Slingshot-------------------------<> da2g (11/20/02; 16:20:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89967) haiku Oh! Nectar of SunObscured in rock of deceitFire will refine you. R Powell (11/20/02; 16:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 89966) Rearrangement of ElGordo's 89949 post ElGordo, hope you don't mind that I've rearranged the words a little, Maybe soon to rise Commodities on a tear Inflation lurking Tevye (11/20/02; 16:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89965) CoBra(too) fiddling Ich habe keine geld, aber viel Golda!Tevye R Powell (11/20/02; 16:12:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89964) ElGordo // CRB I've been reading article after article opining about a raging bull market coming (just starting) to most all commodities. The technical (and especially cyclical) analysts are calling for huge moves while the fundamentalists confirm this opinion with facts and numbers pertaining to supply, demand and a weaker dollar. However, there is agreement among the two different approaches of price prediction. So many commodities have been, for years, at or near production costs but now, in keeping with the ideas often expressed here concerning the monetary situation, we may be in for some fun for the bulls and some needed relief for miners, farmers and everyone whose livelihood is connected to these tangibles. All the grains (especially soybean oil), some of the softs, energy and, of course, gold and silver are attracting attention. Needless to say, I believe the greatest potential still hides in the sleeping silver situation. Gold Regally weighted A value unto itself Indestructible Black Blade (11/20/02; 16:08:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 89963) Economic News Tomorrow we have some limited though important economic news to keep an eye on. Today we had "New Housing Starts" and that data suggests that there could be some cracks in the real estate bubble, even though "New Permits" were up slightly. However, "New Permits" don't necessarily translate into new construction either. Tomorrow we will see the all important weekly "Unemployment" data. I am not sure where we will fall on this data, as there are several data "smoothing" and "filtering" strategies employed by the BLS at this time of year as the holiday season approaches ("seasonality" being one common feature). Also, we will get the "Leading Economic Indicators" (LEI) report at 10 am EST. Then there is the Philadelphia Fed Survey (The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey) to be released at 12 noon EST. So the spread out data releases could portend a volatile trading session tomorrow on Wall Street as well as a number of potential indicators of problems in the US economy. I will also be interested in the NatGas storage report after the market close. It could be "Interesting". - Black Blade CoBra(too) (11/20/02; 15:30:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89962) @ Tevye - Your not fiddeling on any roof - rather at ground zero, my friend.... und wenn ich einmal reich wär ... go get you some reality - gold - eternal value and stop putting this music into my ear - thank you - cb2 a nation of one (11/20/02; 15:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89961) a question Does anyone on the forum have an idea about how today's passage of the Homland Security bill will effect the market in gold? Tevye (11/20/02; 15:21:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89960) be good at Haiku? Me? a poor old Russian Jew. Really, I ask you?? If_I were a rich manLa da de dol de dol daHave Gold and Golda!Lazar Wolf has GoldPlease marry him my daughterGold. It's Tradition!Tevye Operative (11/20/02; 15:20:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 89959) Haiku http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/Eagle.html Flame And Branch In HandRising Within Golden SunSteps Forth Liberty Waverider (11/20/02; 15:04:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89958) Haiku Fireworks..... Gold, caress my soul -Thou art warmth and protection‘gainst confetti snow.Waverider Black Blade (11/20/02; 14:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89957) Re: sector – Gold Hedger Bias http://www.mips1.net/422567CB004DBB8F/UNID/TWOD-5G2U5H?OpenDocument One thing that I have noticed about Mineweb is that some authors apparently tend to lean heavily against non-hedgers and even attack the non-hedging strategy for some undetermined reason. I have my own thoughts on this subject but I will leave that up to others to come to their own conclusions. They also are also active (over active or is it over kill?) to attack and go well out of their way in their relentless attack against those who propose possible gold "conspiracy" theories. Personally I am divided on the "organized conspiracy" issue myself. There does appear to be an agenda at the site at times or at least as far as some of the authors are concerned. Could it be based on certain personal investment or institutional investment holdings? Hmmm...As far as the Meridian controversy is concerned I say if they are sure of their facts then they should publish the article as there is no recourse for Meridian if the charges are based on publically obtainable material facts. If not, then there is the possibility of severe legal and civil repercussions, especially if there is an underlying interest of an unspecified short-seller as alluded to in the posted "article" and if Mineweb is complicit in helping the short seller drive down the share price. In fact the damage may already be done and the legal challenges could be underway (however, I don't know of any civil charges being filed at this time). This should be interesting. However, as a point of disclosure I hold a minimal position of Meridian shares but I also believe in total and complete transparency so that shareholders, potential shareholders and everyone else has all the information available to make informed investment decisions. So I await the publication of the article, and if the article is not published then perhaps the author has not got his facts straight. If the facts are materially correct then Meridian would really have no recourse if the article is published. I see no problems for Meridian as reported in their most recent SEC filings either. Also, so far I see no civil suit filed by Meridian, charges filed by the SEC, nor do I see the article being published either. So I can only say that it is so far only noise and no substance until proven otherwise. This should be good fun to see how all this develops (at least from a relatively objective spectator's view of course).- Black Blade Brett Woods (11/20/02; 14:50:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89956) Haiku Challenge ***Defenistratedla grande douche, un merdementmy coin rinses clean*** a nation of one (11/20/02; 14:45:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89955) Re: Belgian (11/20/02; 00:08:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89920) You ask: "Who is going to do what, against the perfect control of fiat-volume?"People could individually begin to use gold as the preferred currency. If we just went ahead and started doing it, no one could stop it. R Powell (11/20/02; 14:38:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89954) Waiting for our ship to come in Michael, concerning (89910) your last thoughts from yesterday, "Just because a tool or weapon exists, it doesn't mean that it can be used without some moral or legal restriction." I could not agree more. This, in reference to derivatives was my point exactly, their use should be in question- not their existence. That and the opinion that if the derivatives didn't exist to provide the means for market control, another means would be found. I still remain sceptical of the many claims that place a monetary number on the potential risk of this unknown and unknowable situation. Derivatives, BTW, are nothing new. The earliest reference to them that I'm aware of dates back to the coffee houses of 17th century England where they were in common use to hedge investments that often took years to fulfill. This is the origin of the expression, "Waiting for my ship to come in." If it did, the investor was rich but if it never returned, then most of the investment was lost- other than some part of it which was hedged with a derivative. What use can there be Of gold and silver money? For our liberty! Cavan Man (11/20/02; 14:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89953) sector I bumped into the proprietor of the MW in N.O. I typically don't judge a book by its' cover but...... TownCrier (11/20/02; 14:16:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 89952) Leigh Well, I put it forth as a challenge rather than a contest, so I suppose the prize would be the satisfaction of a job well done building toward a shared enlightenment with our fellowship here. I think maybe that simple encouragement will appeal to the poets among us to come forth moreso than any form of bribery might do. But, if something comes across the screen that literally stands me on my head, I might strive to find some suitable way to pay homage.Mr. Gresham, that was a good one! I can picture Silas Marner at his weaving and at his counting.R. goldquest (11/20/02; 14:15:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89951) A Warm and Sunny Day in SW Idaho made even brighter by the arrival of a shiny (contest) $1 Silver Eagle! Thanks USA GOLD! sector (11/20/02; 14:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89950) Mineweb Anti-Meridian [MDG-Anti/hedger] Article Is this the beginning of an end-of-year gold bash..or the last plateau at $320 with $340 in January the new "Level" Gold Corp is set to get bashed too from the same author according to a birdie that I know.See...the biggest advertisement at the Mineweb internet site is from a hedger [AngloGold] so there is a pretty tight financial relationship with the proprietor who "Writes" the "Articles" mostly supporting hedgers. Occasionally he throws a bone to Harmony [Anti-hedging].BTW the Mineweb proprietor has zero mining experience. That's right...never worked in a mine, never trained in geology, never trained in finance. Wouldn't know stratigraphy from sewing. BUT he's an expert in ore grade management, free cash flow management, resource asset development and all the other things that mines do.So...if you are worried about MDG get your checkbook out. It's time to buy at a real bargain price.+++++++++++++++++Could this all be a prelude to a big gold bash to stop the rising trend line?After all, the trend since April 2001 has been up at 4-5% per year. The manipulators knew this and let it happen. Now, they want to hold gold at 325 dollar index value of gold and in parity with the Euro so they must launch a big effort to bend the rising trend line back to flat.That will cost them big in physical since the World is on to their scam and will rise to buy even more metal if $317 stays a while.If one were managing a dwindling physical asset by comsuming an exhaustible resource, the optimum technique is not to hold a flat price level but to maintain a sort of inverted glide path. Now that the cabal has bumped into a wall they may be trying other tricks to discourage investors. They sure can't manufature any more "Fuel". For example... The Mint is in tatters for letting gold and silver run out in November. Even if they get it going again [Problematic with silver] they just advertised a supply difficulty to the rest of the world."Silver Eagles?"..."Sure we got tonnes of Silver Eagles"..."Who said we were out?"..."Probably those NRA rifle waving, Northern Idaho, short wave radio, wacko, gold-bugs at it again". "They need to get a life"."Here, Let me show you the video tape"..."It's right here"..."Aren't they pretty!" ElGordo (11/20/02; 14:10:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89949) CRB Index makes new high http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0 Commodities on a tear.Inflation may be lurking, soon to rise. Mr Gresham (11/20/02; 14:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89948) Anyone here ever been to Ukiah? Hmmmmm...one, two, three, fourCan I buy a little more?No derivative. Leigh (11/20/02; 13:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 89947) Randy - Haiku Contest What's the prize? TownCrier (11/20/02; 13:18:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89946) You can do this Five syllables hereFollowed by seven, and thenFive more about gold.We all know that gold is going to do just fine as future events unfold. So all that is really left for each of us to do, outside of over-analysis, is to spend our time being thoughtful, and also making money so that we can buy more.The methods of money-making I leave to you, but in regard to the first item, sometimes we all need a little prod toward thoughtfulness. Therefore, the challenge before you is to offer a haiku about gold.The art of haiku has been described as the attempt "to frame reality in a single instant that will lock the poet and the reader into sharing the same experience -- a moment of absolute intensity in which the poet's grasp of his intuition is complete and the image he/she describes lives its own life."The "haiku experience" consists of three elements -- where, when, and what. These elements of place, time, and object are in the finest examples of the art so unified that in the single breath required to utter a haiku it springs to unambiguous life in the reader/listener's mind like the sudden bursting of fireworks.Gold of autumn leavesDappled in moonlight above --Thieves pause, distracted.Ok, so much for my contribution. Now it is your turn, everyone.Randy Operative (11/20/02; 12:46:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89945) All Hope Is Lost http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2496427.stm I wonder how fellow Americans feel about the Homeland Security Bill just passed. I wonder why more Americans do not rise up against the Federal Reserve and demand we return to "real money". I wonder how many Americans even know the concept of fiat dollars, or grasp the enormous debt this country is burdened with. I wonder, if they wonder, what will come of future expected payments from Social Security or pension funds. I wonder why so few save in a modest amount of thier paycheck in case of a rainy day. I wonder why so many of us here at the forum are met with blank stares (as in the lights are on but nobody is home) when we discuss events such as these with friends or loved ones. The above link has answered most of these wonderings for me today. The phrase "dumbed down" is an understatment of the American Education System. If many cannot find thier own country on a world globe, how can we expect them to understand the value of owning gold? Hope is lost.Think I will sell one of my Gold Eagles and go buy one of those new video games to help me pass the time in thoughtless brain activity. Lest I sound too negative today. ( I always chide people who only complain/whine without offering up an idea or solution)here is an idea. Start a new craze of gold plated fingernails. I see these shops everywhere and women are spending 25 bucks to have thier nails done. They paint em, put tiny diamonds on each nail, add glitter and who knows what else? If we could get 50 million American women to spend thier dollars on gold plated nails perhaps we could add some pressure to the physical market. ??*&??Sorry for the vent. Putting my head back in the sand now. Paper Avalanche (11/20/02; 12:43:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89944) Rolling it out to Joe Sixpack My observations dove tail somewhat with the name of Dines book "Mass Psychology." I was at the casa fo rlunch and was watching CNN and much to my amazement I saw an advertisement for another company (no names will be mentioned out of respect for the tremendous service our gracious host provides with this forum - thank you MK) and the lady in the ad mentioned that now was time time for gold due to among other things "Declining paper assets." This is a direct quote and was also listed as print on TV during the ad. The fix is in IMHO for the transition to commence in the next few months based on this and other anecdotal evidence (i.e. the post yesterday regarding National Propaganda Radio mentioning the London gold fix with the Dow numbers - WOW!). The main stream press and the advertising engine available to TPTB have begun the shift in Joe Sixpack's perception of gold, again IMHO. This also leads me to believe that those who have manipulated the paper price for these many years are ready to pull the plug on that scam and likely are the very people who have been quietly accumulating the precious yellow metal the past two decades from the likes of the BOE.The time is near. I think that I will be doing all of my Christmas shopping at CPM this year!!!!Take care.Paper AvalancheBTW - CRB index is back above 230 and the price of coffee is going vertical Buena Fe (11/20/02; 12:34:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89943) maitre d' what shall we have? mr. bond is shrieking in terror as he races for the fire escape of the fashionable ny resturant, the waiter has just announced the special for the evening is "hyperin-filet-ation". Belgian (11/20/02; 12:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 89942) Un-accounted Gold !? Antwerp, Belgium wed.20 nov.02 : A Pakistani businessman has been arrested for having been smuggling 10 tonnes of Gold per month, for the past 4 years, from Congo, as to finance rebel activities overthere ! Pieuwwwww.120 tonnes per year x 4 years = 480 tonnes of unaccounted Gold ? Impossible to check the accuracy of this astronomical figure. But where there is smoke (lots of it) there is fire. How much black Gold is reaching the "unbalanced" gold-market ??? How accurate are the WGC and other official (semi-official) statistics on jewelry and investment-Gold ? Is black Gold, temporary and partially, filling the offer/demand gap of plus/minus 1,000. (thousand) tonnes per year ? Certainly in connection with this, Gold-smuggling affair, there were 17 investigations on "blood" diamonts in the diamont city of Antwerp. Blood diamonts are those diamonts that are financing wars in Africa. Maybe the next step is a focus on blood-Gold ?All this while unaccounted oil-money in Angola comes into public attention. Is this a trend with a message ? A precursor to the shaping of an international law with the help of a tendency to block "walhalla" (hand to hand) money for terror ?How much of the 400 BILLION $ US_trade deficit (trade surplus for the dollar-exporters) is exchanged in Gold ?Trade surplus means that those exporters of real goods and services to the USA, are piling up mountains of dollars at a pace of 400 billion $ per year. 1 Billion $ = 100 (hundred) tonnes of Gold. 1% of the 400 billion trade surplus in Gold = 400 tonnes of Gold per year, possibly going to the East and Far East ? Absorbing with ease the one tonne a day of Swiss Gold. The Congo black-Gold has most probably been shipped to the Eastblock and Russia.US$ in circulation outside US increased from 1950 to 2001 :150 billion to 8,3 TRILLION (x 55) and on top of this comes the almost 1/2 Trillion from the yearly deficit ! What if a very small fraction of those circulating dollars is chased into Gold when an international Gold-law gives signs to surface ? Japan (Jipangu) must surely be inspired by what is going on in China/Hong Kong on official Gold-reserve policies. mikal (11/20/02; 12:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89941) Disaster? http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com Wed, Nov 20, 2002 Subject: CBSMW Thom Calandra's StockWatch: Terror threat packing surprises for investor... STRATEGIST WONDERS ABOUT TERRORISM SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Longtime market watcher James Dines says that when it comes to the threat of terrorism, the market's memory is short, and perhaps dangerous. "It is my instinct that terrorism will rear its head again," says the editor of The Dines Letter (http://www.thedineslettter.com/). "I think we are going to have a terrorist event, and I think this market is in deep trouble." Almost two weeks ago, Dines took the step of spotlighting this threat in his newsletter, which has been published since 1961. Days later, a report that Osama bin-Laden was alive received worldwide media coverage. U.S. authorities also endorsed the reports. In contrast to Dines' comments, most stock market professionals are playing down the importance of terrorism. Indeed, the Nasdaq has risen some 30 percent since early October. Dines, whose 1996 book "Mass Psychology" examines investor and consumer sentiments and their impact on the market, sees what he calls a "classic rejection" of a theme that will haunt markets for some time to come. "We are frankly alarmed that something spectacular is about to happen, in several countries, possibly all of the six that bin-Laden specifically warned against: America, Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Italy," says Dines..... "Golds are not in the news at all, completely ignored, so our bullishness would attract almost no attention," says Dines. "We are not at all pounding on the table, but it looks to us as if there finally might be the beginning of a gold shift to the upside."..... On Friday, Dines will be featured on Paul Kangas' Nightly Business Report (http://www.nbr.com/) on PBS stations across the United States.....full story at link above Sierra Madre (11/20/02; 11:10:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89940) Belgian: ooops! Sorry for the mistake about the Fred link... www.fredoneverything.net The correct link is "dot net" and not "dot com".SorrySierra goldfool (11/20/02; 11:05:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89939) JPM - King of denial http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index.cfm - We turn now to an evergreen topic: rumors of financial distress at J.P. Morgan.- Yes, it's true, the banking giant is once again doing what it does SECOND best: denying that it has incurred substantial losses in one of its areas of operation. What it does best, of course, is actually incurring all those substantial losses that it spends so much time and effort trying to deny. The big bank seems to excel at shooting itself in the foot.- "If the denials are starting to ring hollow," the National Post recently remarked, "it's because J.P. Morgan has had to issue so many of them in recent months."- True. When the Enron crisis erupted last year, JPM repeatedly low-balled its exposure to the bankrupt "energy trader." Morgan's CEO William Harrison insisted that Enron posed no serious risk to its finances. Nothing could have been further from the truth. The Enron fiasco not only took a big bite out of JPM's balance sheet, it also dealt a body blow to its reputation. Next up, Morgan indignantly denied the prospect of a dividend cut...and then later acknowledged the possibility. Now the high- risk lender is at it again - adamantly denying rumors that it is saddled with sizeable wrong-way bets in the gold derivatives market.- These troubling rumors swirled about the stock on Wednesday, November 6th, causing the shares to fall more than 6% that day. Immediately, Morgan's PR department came out with its denial-guns ablazin' by dismissing the rumors as "false and irresponsible."- The rumors about Morgan's outsized gold derivatives portfolio aren't new, of course, they've simply gained a fresh intensity. They've also gained a fresh plausibility, given Morgan's recent string of serial disasters.- In theory, banks like JPM try to maintain a derivatives exposure that assumes very little risk. In other words, they are supposed to be 'market-neutral' most of the time. But as markets are markets and people are people, large speculative positions sometimes worm their way into the derivatives portfolios at financial institutions. - "As far as most analysts are concerned," says the Post, "J.P. Morgan's massive derivatives program amounts to a short position on the price of gold." Therefore, ever since the yellow metal broke free of its bear-market moorings last year, suspicion about the bank's exposure to gold derivatives has surfaced from time to time. Remember, these are "false and irresponsible" rumors.- Morgan has assured one and all that it has "stress- tested" its derivatives portfolio and insists that, even in a worst-case scenario, there is nothing to worry about. Wow...that's a relief! And by the way, the bank really, really wishes - honestly - that it were at liberty to divulge more details about its gold derivatives positions. Unfortunately, these are proprietary secrets.- But there are a few clues that suggest reasons for concern. Foremost among them is JPM's oversized presence in the gold derivatives market. "Pick a high-risk banking sector, any high-risk banking sector, and you are sure to find a large encampment - if not a tent city - of J.P. Morgan bankers," Apogee Research quipped several months ago. - "In the derivatives market, in particular, Morgan exerts a particularly commanding presence...Drilling down a bit into Morgan's titanic derivatives book, we find that it is the largest U.S. player in the gold derivatives sector (probably not a great thing to be in a rising gold price environment, but time will tell on that score). Based upon notional values, JPM holds nearly two- thirds of all the gold derivatives held by 369 U.S. banks and trust companies that hold derivatives of any kind."- In raw numbers, Morgan's balance sheet is only about two-thirds the size of Citigroup's. Yet, Morgan's $45 billion gold derivatives book is almost four times the size of Citigroup. Perhaps Morgan's outsized gold derivatives exposure is not a MAJOR accident waiting to happen, but we wouldn't be surprised to see the high-risk bank stub its toe...at least.For more on JPM see: Apogee Research Gandalf the White (11/20/02; 09:52:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89938) OOPS ---SORRY Sir BeLgian !!! I can not spell "KAT" in the morning !!<;-) Gandalf the White (11/20/02; 09:48:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89937) THANK YOU, Sir Begian !!! You painted a marvelous PICTURE ---"Paper is already heated at 128 TRILLION $-degrees Celsius !" "At what temperature do dikes melt ?"AND in your response to Sir Gold Standard's GREAT QUESTION:you answered --Gold Standard : No Sir, don't know the P/E for the Nikkei-papers. But an industrial nation that sees its bank's value "decimate" and hesitates as to when and how to *nationalise* its banks....what do P/E, being low or high, matter ? What magical trick is going to make a 120% (?) debt to GDP, dis-appear ? Belgium was in the same situation and it costed us 1.000 tonnes of Gold out of the total of 1.350 tonnes to offset that enormous debt and being qualified to join EMU !!! Japan will have to devaluate or hyperinflate in concert with the dollar-block and friends.---AND the Hobbits need to understand that you are EUROPEAN and using the NON-American accounting methods of stating figures, when you say "1.000 tonnes of Gold" --- WHICH SHOULD be translated into American English as "ONE THOUSAND tonnes of Gold" !! That was a "big bite" from the former Gold Reserves of ONE THOUSAND, THREE HUNDRED and FIFTY TONNES of GOLD !! Expensive "Qualification", AY ?---PLEASE keep the education lessons coming ! Things are getting clearer "ON THE TRAIL" !!! YES !!!<;-) Hipplebeck (11/20/02; 09:43:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89936) Greenspan's confidence game You can leverage up to extreme levels on a relatively small base and be content with a very small margin if you believe you have insured yourself against all risk.It is the new game Greenspan was speaking of.Credit insurance. Hedge funds are selling insurance against credit default.Greenspan believes that if risk can be spread out enough then any losses will be shared by all.I insure you against all risk,You insure me against all risk.We are both covered against risk.In the event of catastrophe,Our obligations net out and cancel each other. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/20/02; 09:33:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89935) Nov/Dec News & Views has been sent. Have you secured your place on our mailing list? http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html Following a brief printing hiatus, and no longer provided beyond one introductory issue to prospective clientele, our September newsletter tells it like it is to our established clients:"...we emerge to introduce a new role for NEWS & VIEWS -- sifting through the avalanche of information being published these days and organizing it into something reader-friendly for our busy clientele. We hope you enjoy and gain from this first issue of our resurrected now bimonthly offering. May you welcome it like the return of an old friend."Speaking of old friends, it seems our old friend, Mr. Yellow, has altered his disposition since last we met stubborn determination has reaped dogged progress, and most of the goldmeisters have spent a pleasant summer counting coup. Overnight, it seems, gold has gone from contemptible wastrel in the investment world to prime subject matter at Power Lunches around the world -- including CNBC's segment."- - -It's easy to be added to the ongoing distribution list for this newsletter -- mailed bimonthly to all of our clients. Just choose USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals as your precious metals brokerage, and enjoy the full benefits of three decades of experience and service! USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/20/02; 09:08:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 89934) Don't be left grasping at air by daily head-fakes. Why gold? Why now? (And how to grab it...) http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html
Following a brief printing hiatus, and no longer provided beyond one introductory issue to prospective clientele, our September newsletter tells it like it is to our established clients:
"...we emerge to introduce a new role for NEWS & VIEWS -- sifting through the avalanche of information being published these days and organizing it into something reader-friendly for our busy clientele. We hope you enjoy and gain from this first issue of our resurrected now bimonthly offering. May you welcome it like the return of an old friend.
"Speaking of old friends, it seems our old friend, Mr. Yellow, has altered his disposition since last we met stubborn determination has reaped dogged progress, and most of the goldmeisters have spent a pleasant summer counting coup. Overnight, it seems, gold has gone from contemptible wastrel in the investment world to prime subject matter at Power Lunches around the world -- including CNBC's segment."- - -It's easy to be added to the ongoing distribution list for this newsletter -- mailed bimonthly to all of our clients. Just choose USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals as your precious metals brokerage, and enjoy the full benefits of three decades of experience and service!
"As a lurker for almost three years it was the opinion expressed on this board as well as other commentary that forced my wife and I to examine the sanity of playing with our life savings in the stock market casino. We bailed completely as the Nasdog was crossing 4400 heading south and immediately went to the physical...the rest is history. Gratitude is an understatment for that heads up. I can't even begin to fathom where we might be otherwise."--Harry Harrison, aka Skydog.
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