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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/15/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Operative (11/15/02; 23:26:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 89744) AT&T Latin America May File For Bankruptcy http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APdVpLhVmQVQmVCBM Article states ATT expected 20% growth rates at the start, now looking at going belly up. Operative (11/15/02; 23:18:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 89743) U.S. Halts Oil Shipments to N. Korea http://www.nationalpost.com/world/story.html?id={B1F966F3-CA9C-4256-A2E2-33929731779F} World Events getting crazier by the day. Operative (11/15/02; 23:06:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 89742) Argentina Blames IMF http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=V0PSMBWNF0H3WCRBAELCFFA?type=worldnews&StoryID=1750324# The saga continues. Operative (11/15/02; 22:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 89741) @ timbervision Thank you for providing the correct qoute ( much better) and providing it's author. a nation of one (11/15/02; 21:15:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89740) or better yet, "The post-bubble markdown of asset returns began just in as the retirement of "baby-boomers" would be directly impacted." timbervision (11/15/02; 21:12:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89739) Operative Re: post #89720 http://www.quotelady.com/subjects/words.html Here is the quote that you remembered for 30 years. I can't say that I had ever heard it before, but I just took the words that you remembered and applied them to a Google search."If you would be pungent, be brief; for it is with words as with sunbeams--the more they are condensed, the deeper they burn."--Robert Southey a nation of one (11/15/02; 21:11:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 89738) to sector (11/15/02; 10:09:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 89702) You say: "...as bad luck would have it, the retirement of "baby boomers" has commenced at just the point when the post-bubble markdown of asset returns has occurred...."But this is not luck. It is intended.To say the same thing in the reverse order would be more revealing (to use your words, more or less): "Just at the point when the post-bubble markdown of asset returns is occurring, the retirement of "baby-boomers" has commenced." a nation of one (11/15/02; 20:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 89737) those poor, frightened people It is beginning to look as if the six point drop on Wednesday was the result of impulsive -and unaware- weak hands. Liberty Head (11/15/02; 19:54:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89736) Bound Spirit - Roger Arnolds Comments Thanks for the insightful post.It seems that most corporations believe the best way to increase the rate of productivity, is to terminate employees, get rid of the dead wood, so to speak. I see that as treating the symptom, instead of treating the disease. The disease, as I see it, is "Free Market Phobia", which manifests as increasing government control of our countries businesses. Having the government regulate industry is like giving your best huntin' dog tapeworms so the greedy dog won't hunt too much. Every argument I have heard against the free-market is based on fear of unrestricted coruption. I do not believe our government is any less corupt. In matter of fact, I think the coruption level in entities as huge as the free-market vs a government regulated market will always be the same as the population at large. So, the question is, which form responds to coruption most quickly? I think the Enron fiasco makes a great example. When coruption became known, the free-market responded with an immediate withdrawl of funds. Enron was out of business within a very short time. Justice was swift. Bing Badda Boom! It didn't matter if the government regulators were just as corupt as Enron executives.Get rid of government interference in the market place and productivity will float to it's highest level, freely.I don't think a free market economy would tolerate a fiat currency, so ...... Cheers Cavan Man (11/15/02; 19:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 89735) WORLD GOLD COUNCIL I met a representative of the WGC in New Orleans recently. Honestly, this gentleman had no more interest in gold than the typical western investor. one of the things he said to me: "A lot of people think gold is going to $800 or better. We don't want to see that. Nobody wants to see that." Cavan Man (11/15/02; 19:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89734) Goldcorp This company is a rare bird in the mining industry. They maintain their product is money. They leverage it as money. They promote it. They market it. They are crazy about it. They love their product and they are telling the world about it!ARE YOU TAKING NOTES PIERRE? TownCrier (11/15/02; 19:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89733) Gilded Opinion addition http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/McEwen.html This new addition captures the Mineweb interview with Goldcorp head Rob McEwen along with MK's foreward on the subject of gold scarcity.R. Black Blade (11/15/02; 19:12:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89732) In Gold We Trust http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0211_21/p030fcol.html Snippits:Investors once again are seeking value, and traditional "refuge investments" such as gold will be favoured even more, especially if the United States goes to war with Iraq.First, China has set up a gold exchange, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which started trial operations on October 16.Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan together hold the world's largest amount of U.S. dollar reserves, estimated at over $300 billion. But their gold holding is officially only 3% of all foreign-exchange reserves. By contrast, the European Central Bank's standard is 15%. Thus, the People's Bank Of China is frequently rumoured to be a buyer of gold to raise its holdings, even if it denies it officially.Dubai is establishing a commodities exchange that will start by trading gold early next year. Part of the reason for this development is the Islamic gold dinar, a newly created 100% gold currency which has a weight of 4.3 grams and whose value is based on the metal's international price. Its backers are hoping that the gold dinar will become the currency of more than one billion Muslims, and eventually turn into a rival to the dollar and serve as a reserve currency.America needs to rid itself of excesses in its financial markets. But a way out of this dilemma is if a sharp fall in the value of the dollar were to occur, which would allow America to unwind its imbalances without a double-dip recession. In just such a circumstance, commodities, in particular gold, will benefit. As such, the pressure remains for the price of gold to go up, as investors likely will move some of their dollar holdings into gold bullion--while applying appropriate hedging strategies.Black Blade: A few reasons to hold gold. Gold is selling at bargain prices. ElGordo (11/15/02; 18:58:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89731) Silver lease rates turning up http://www.kitco.com/charts/s_leaserates.html A weaker US Dollar will eventually lead to higher inflation.Everything seems to be falling into place for PMs. Golden Bear (11/15/02; 18:40:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 89730) Weakest Link... by Doug Nolan http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp "...It is also worth noting the $1.44 billion loss reported this week by Credit Suisse, a major player in asset-backs (National Century's investment banker!) and U.S. "structured finance" generally. But they are only one of an expanding number of troubled foreign financial institutions operating in U.S. financial markets. It is today important to appreciate that the big international financial conglomerates became major U.S. Credit Bubble operators. They are now beginning to suffer the consequences. It is our view that it was these and other leveraged speculators that played the instrumental role in what was the painless recycling of increasingly massive U.S. current account deficits ("Bubble Dollars") back to the U.S. Credit system. Evidence of their key role is found by scanning the list of borrowers in one's money market fund, while also pondering the quality of assets underpinning hundreds of "funding corps" managed by these same institutions (and held in huge quantities by the money fund complex). It is also worth noting that the recently released Shared National Credit Review of U.S. syndicated bank loans stated that 45% of these Credits were held by foreign-sourced institutions. This is a problem, and their problem is our problem. As we have written repeatedly, there is a lot of bad paper out there somewhere. Whether it is large amount of poor Credits extended or their over-enthusiasm for the fledgling Credit default swaps, foreign players acquired enormous U.S. Credit risk as they aggressively played the Great Credit Bubble. How much of this risk lies hidden in American investment portfolios (in funding corps, special purpose vehicles and elsewhere) – and how much of this risk has been re-insured by the U.S. Credit insurers, Banks, GE and others – only time will tell. However, one way or the other, these unfolding Credit losses are quite likely a critical Weak Link. Despite this week's curious bid to acquire Household International, we would now expect that, on the margin, the reeling foreign financial conglomerates will attempt a quiet retreat from the faltering U.S. Bubble. If so, this will prove a seminal development for the Great Credit Bubble and its twin, the Bubble dollar. Again repeating previous analysis, "As goes structured finance, so goes the dollar." And if, as we expect, the dollar proves a Weak Link, Dr. Greenspan's inflationary goals become more challenging and considerably more risky..."--------------------------------------------------------GB: "A lot of bad paper out there somewhere" How many 401k's and dreams are going to implode when this bad paper comes out of hiding.... Bound Spirit (11/15/02; 18:07:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89729) Roger Arnolds Daily Observations I've waited all day for someone to share todays thoughts from Roger Arnold. I guess one of these day's I'm going to have to start helping with some of the heavy lifting others do around here that make lurking possible for sloths like me. I thought Roger's comments today were pretty insightful - I'm hoping my impression will be either rejected or confirmed. Here's what Roger had to say about the FED: "A great much of what we have discussed over the past year in relation to the FED has been in understanding the standard operating procedures the FED operates by as determined by the Chairman, Dr. Greenspan. He has done a spectacular job of implementing SOP and in so doing has created transparency in the way the FED determines monetary policy. This has taken away much of the mystique and confusion about how the FED operates during Dr. Greenspan's tenure. That is a very good thing.One of the key points in SOP has been that the FED will manage monetary policy preemptively on inflation and reactively on deflation.On InflationWhat this means is that the FED will raise rates and restrict money supply growth if they anticipate the potential for inflation increasing above their target comfort level BEFORE the economic indicators validate that this is occurring. This was actually first begun by Chairman Paul Volcker in the early eighties as a means of getting ahead of the inflation rate by driving short term rates up so fast that they stopped economic activity in its tracks and resulted in a recession in 1982 as a result. He didn't have to bring the economy to a screeching halt as fast as he did but I am not going to waste time debating that here. Ever since then however the FED has taken a preemptive approach on inflation.On DeflationAs the US economy and the FED have not had to deal with the prospects of a real deflationary environment since the 1930's there has been no need for the FED to alter its policy on deflation or even overtly define a policy on deflation. The policy has been by default to be reactive on deflation. Which means move rates down and increase money supply only AFTER economic reports have validated the slow down is ocurring and has ocuurde in the recent past. Prior to the hyper-inflationary environment of the late 1970's the overall monetary policy was to be reactive on both inflation and deflation. This philosophy was one of the reasons that monetary policy failed in the 1970's. And as well was one of the reasons that caused the inflation to get out of control and mandating an aggressive response. Since then very few have questioned the need for the FED to be preemptive on inflation. A debate in reference to this is warranted however and should be had. I will not have that debate here now though. The big point to understand about the FED's move last week and Dr. Greenspans testimony before the Joint economic committee a few days ago is that the FED is now clearly in the preemptive camp when it comes to managing monetary policy during economic slow downs. This is, in my opinion, the largest shift in FED SOP that has occurred during Dr. Greenspans tenure.We first began seeing the inklings about this this past June when the FED published a report comparing the deflation in Japan during the 1990's to the direction the US Economy is going in now. In that report the FED concluded among other things that the best way to attempt to stop deflation is to aggressively lower over night lending rates and increase money supply AHEAD of the increasing potential and probability of deflation.I then wrote about this potential shift in policy just prior to the August FOMC meeting and the internal conflict at the FED about the potential for this transition.Although no articles have been written about this particular subject within the mainstream press that I am aware of there are many articles that have been written about the FED's philosophy and what a change in philosophy could mean to investors. The conclusion most have drawn is that a change in FED philosophy, in the way they manage monetary policy, would be bad. The rationale for this conclusion would be that the FED has realized that their policy is not working and must change course to avoid a disaster. Investors it was postulated would pick up on this and perhaps panic, selling paper assets and actually making the problem worse than it was prior to the change in procedures. In other words the FED didn't want to rock the boat. It wanted to maintain an "even strain".The idea being that FED appearance is far more important to the markets than actual monetary policy. The FED had to appear to be in control even if they weren't. That philosophy was abandoned last week. What is most fascinating about this to me is that nobody anywhere appears to have picked up on this.During Dr. Greenspans testimony before congress two days ago he clearly signaled that the FEDs concern over potential deflation was greater than the FED's concern over potential inflation and as such was the reason for moving the FED funds rate 50 basis points down instead of the widely anticipated 25. About 20% of the poled investment banking economists last week anticipated a no move by the FED. About 60% anticipated 25 basis points down. And, only 20% anticipated a 50 basis point move down. This is a much wider range of opinions that is normal; signaling a growing migration of the FED away from its SOP and being reflected in the lack of transparency and confusion among FED watchers. Back to Dr. Greenspans testimony.What was even more startling about Dr. Greenspans testimony were his comments during the questions and answer section. When asked about the possibility of the deflation increasing and the FED reaching a zero rate policy Dr. Greenspan replied, as paraphrased by me:He did not believe that there would be general deflation in the US economy but that if that were to occur that the fed has other options available to it. Those other options as stated by him centered on being able to "move out on the maturity curve" with respect to rates. This was a clear signal that the FED is ready to buy long term US treasuries with the expressed goal of driving down long term yields, specifically the 10 year treasury yield. This was an awesome statement.The FED buys and sells US treasuries all day long in an attempt to balance its own portfolio of about 700 billion dollars with respect to and as a reflection of what the bond market is indicating in reference to future economic activity in the US economy. In other words the FED in general does not buy and sell long term treasuries in an attempt to overtly manipulate the yields and thus lending rates.Dr. Greenspan stated explicitly that the FED can and will do this if necessary.I will explain what his means.Most corporate borrowing is done based on short term interest rates. The FED's manipulation of short term rates in setting the FED funds rate is a means of primarily affecting corporate borrowing activity, not consumer borrowing activity.Most consumer borrowing is tied to long term rates; i.e. the 10 year US treasury yield. 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates, for example, are tied to the yield on the 10 year US treasury.What Dr. Greenspan was implying and assuring corporate money managers was that if corporate borrowing did not pick up soon he would target consumer borrowing instead.By extension we can infer that Dr. Greenspan'a real meaning and the message he wanted to deliver to corporate America is that the FED will not allow there to be a consumer capitulation. Dr. Greenspan, I am sure, understands that catch 22 we have talked about in reference to the economic cycle. That being that economic cycles are self fulfilling. Consumer capitulation has always been the signal of the bottom of an economic cycle. We have not yet had a consumer capitulation. Corporations will not borrow until there is a consumer capitulation. Because corporations are not borrowing real economic activity and revenues begin to fall. The only way, in a falling revenue environment directly caused by general economic weakness, for companies to increase earnings is to reduce expenses. The largest single expense at a company is almost universally people. Firing people becomes the fastest method to reducing costs. As unemployment rises consumers begin to slow spending culminating in a capitulation. Get it? The economic cycle catch 22.Dr. Greenspan is signaling to companies that A) he understands that they are not borrowing because they are worried that there will be a consumer capitulation, and B) that he will not allow it to happen and C) so companies might as well go ahead and starting borrowing, spending and investing now.So, the question now is what will companies believe and do?Will CEO's buy the fact that the FED can supersede the business cycle using monetary policy to manipulate consumers into continuing to borrow and spend causing the capitulation to NOT occur and allowing companies to confidently begin borrowing, spending and investing?OrWill CEO's stand fast and play the I'll believe it when I see it game. I suspect that if the FED is to have any credibility with corporate America in this regard that it will have to start buying up long term US treasuries ahead of any corporate activity as a means of giving credence to their promise.This would result in falling long term treasury yields; namely the 10 year US treasury, dramatically. I say dramatically because the FED would have to show without overtly saying so that their buying is the resaon for the reduction in treasury yields and that no other rationale conclusion coule be drawn by CEO's. This would drive mortgage rates even lower and perhaps even spark another round of refinancing and spending on the part of consumers.This is all new ground. Can the FED supersede the business cycle? It's less about real monetary policy and more about how good a salesman Dr. Greenspan is at making corporations believe he can deliver. Because if they believe he can deliver they actually make the belief happen.Get it?Personally, I think it will fail. I don't think corporate America is going to buy the idea that the FED will disallow the consumer capitulation. CEO's have told as much in the last 6 months as well. The equity markets however are right now putting more belief in Dr. Greenspan and his ability to manipulate the economy than the CEO's of the companies they are trading in. It's a strange world. I think traders believe what they want to believe because facing the idea that the Chairman has no clothes is too scary. Solomon Weaver (11/15/02; 17:45:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 89728) All in all - just another (gold) brick in the wall REUTERS November 12, 2002 3:18:00 PM ET"Newmont shrank its forward sales by 928,000 ounces to 5.8 million ounces during the third quarter, roughly equivalent to 10 months of production, and expects a further reduction of at least 279,000 ounces in the fourth quarter. It inherited a hedge book of about 10 million ounces from Normandy"I have not been here very much lately....but I just noticed that the largest gold company in the world announced in its earning reports that it continues to unwind the Normandy hedgebook it "inherited".Poor old Solomon TownCrier (11/15/02; 17:16:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89727) A timely update! Read Monday's "CB Insider"... today! http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.html Often insightful, sometimes irreverent, and always worth a look.The following delightful excerpt begins with a reference to former Bank of Canada governor Gordon Thiessen being appointed as chairman of the Canadian Public Accountability Board , an item which is also covered in this latest report.BRIEFCASE FRAUDAlthough not related to Canada, Newsmakers discovered an amusing incident of the kind Thiessen is likely to have to get used to. Raymond Williams, the founder and CEO of HIH insurance group, which is lamentably no more, under cross-examination by Wayne Martin, counsel of the Royal Commission, told the court in Australia a neat little story about his briefcase:Martin: "Could you tell us please if, on your frequent first-class trips to London, you booked the seat next to you for your briefcase?"Williams: "I don't recall specifically. But that may have been the case, on some occasions."Martin: "That your briefcase was also travelling first class?"Williams: "That may have been the case."Martin: "Did you express the view to Qantas that this briefcase should be eligible for frequent-flyer points?"Williams: "I can't recall that."Martin: "And were you subsequently informed that said briefcase would not be eligible for such points on the grounds that it was not, in fact, a person?"Williams: "That may have been the airline's position on that issue."Martin: "Was that briefcase, from that point on, booked under the name of Casey Williams?"Williams: "Yes, Casey Reginald Williams, AM." -------(click url for CB Insider)-------Heh heh heh... Casey. Get it? For a briefCASE?! I almost fell off the Tower in a fit of laughter while I was coding this up.R. Belgian (11/15/02; 16:49:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 89726) Sirs Ari and Gresham Gresham : I picked those FOA/A-paragraphs that are being backed by the present facts. In a yesterday's posting of yours...you, brilliantly, gave evidence of having understood the essence of Gold at its full depts. I heavenly enjoyed it the way you said it. Don't expect to hear any of the A-team's thoughts in the media or politics (Euroland or US). These things (dramatic changes) simply happen without noise or image. Kind of navigating across underwater icebergs. The purpose of recapitulating A/FOA's thoughts is to invite hesitant Gold-Friends to check if all the elements of the theory do gather substance and are therefore relevant. I'm already convinced w're on our way.Many are still, subconsciously, having some doubt(s).Thanks Sir for yesterday's, exceptionally, nice posting.Ari : The A/FOA-team, remains a fascinating, all embracing and very intelligent Gold-story. Said it before but feel the urge to repeat it.Some chapters are easy to understand and quite evident for most of us. Other thoughts are more extrapolations + projections from Gold's history into the future and seem (!!!) so far away/remote. More precisely the euro-architectial part of the Gold equation. But lovers do separate after 30/40 years having lived together. Why shouldn't the dollar have an end to his lifetime and be replaced by another (euro) currency in their function as reserve ? We witness 40 years lows in IRs, while the Gold window was closed only 30 years ago. Today we can't understand how it is possible to avoid price-inflation, knowing very well how much confetti there is produced, daily. We simple are conditionned to compensate the permanent currency depreciation with adding to the confetti volume, ad nauseum. Financial debauche !It seems very difficult to accept that the silent insiders do know very well how rotten the whole structure is and that there is no escape from the systematic destruction of the great illusion. It is because many can't afford the luxury of contemplating on it. How unfortunate for them.Next time I will try to elaborate on A/FOA's thoughts in direct connection with present facts. The Gold Trail is a masterpiece, unique in its kind and from much more perspectives than the naked eye can see. Have a pleasant evening. Operative (11/15/02; 16:38:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89725) The Weakest Link Its Friday! Gold has spent another week testing it's chains of bondage, looking for the weak link, that will soon set it free. (With a little help from a certain Wizard we all know)For sure, time to acquire more of the metal at bargin basement prices is coming to an end. Once I get past my "honey do" list this weekend I think I will go over the family books and see where I can find the means to purchase more of the "too heavy for the price" coin.Happy Weekend to all here at the castle. Those guards assigned to watch duty stay alert! "It" could happen at any time. The CoinGuy (11/15/02; 16:36:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89724) Cavan Man I've read recently where France is on this issue hot and heavy. I remember FOA's response to AuSpec, stating this was already occurring to some respect(for a year now). Any news in this direction from here on out, will not surprise me in the least. I(personally) believe the documents have been drawn and signed. Then again, who am I...The CoinGuy The CoinGuy (11/15/02; 16:28:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89723) Austrian Coin purchase from Japan Vienna gold coins selling at record highs in Japan TOKYO, Japan - A shop assistant shows off Vienna gold coins at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K. in Tokyo. The coins produced by the Austrian mint are becoming increasingly popular with Japanese investors, with sales up to the end of October 2002 already double the previous year's figure at a record 100,000 ounces (about 3 tons). Due to the prolonged economic doldrums in Japan, the coins are popular as an alternative investment as they can be cashed at any time and their tender value is relatively stable, industry officials say.Business News From KyodoComment: ahem, that last post should have said "yearly", not monthly. Knew it sounded to good(smile).TheCoinGuy Cavan Man (11/15/02; 16:27:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89722) The Coin Guy You'd think the Arabs would take a couple of Euro for a bbl of oil. Why not? Couldn't hoit! Max Rabbitz (11/15/02; 16:24:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89721) Thanks NEMO It's been a long week. Glad I'm still working.Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.................. Operative (11/15/02; 16:09:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 89720) @ Belgian There is a qoute that has remained in my head for over 30 years that your posts today reminded me of once again.I cannot remember who the qoute is attributed to as the gray hairs of my head have taken thier toll and the following may be a bit paraphrased but here goes.Words, like sunbeams, burn deeper the more they are condensed.Thank you for taking the time to "sum up" the writings/wisdom of two sages from our past, FOA/ANOTHER.Footsteps of giants indeed. The CoinGuy (11/15/02; 16:08:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89719) Mr. Gresham...Very Simple Euro Groups from Germany were at the Arab Summit pushing for oil for euros(also discussing ways to develop a new Arab Currency model), later at the Japan Economic Summit, they were pushing hot and heavy for Asian countries to increasingly use euros as a foreign reserve. This was about the time you saw pictures in the paper with the HK finance minister with fists of Euros in his hands. "I'm selling Dollars".The rest was explained very well by Sector's post yesterday. I might add I heard of buying from Japan as well, but didn't mention it because I believe Jipangu is really active in the region. At any rate, it seems as though the Arabs have Australia tied up, so the competition in SA is hot and heavy. On another note, I travel extensively, and attend most of the largest numismatic shows in the country, and there is a HUGE(meaning quality($), not quantity) interest in coins from the Asian community. I can remember this same interest in muscle cars, levi's, and Harley Davidsons in the past. FWIW, I think this addition is a plus for many years to come.Good weekend to you Sir Gresham,The CoinGuyALL: I read recently Japan is taking in 3 tons of Austrian bullion coins per month, is this figured into the bullion intake, or is it separate? I'll try to find the article. TownCrier (11/15/02; 15:41:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 89718) "Uphill battle" for dollar... or maybe "downhill slide" is more like it http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_currency&s=APdVjDhZaRXVybyBD Excertps:New York, Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) --The U.S. has to attract more than $1.3 billion a day in foreign investment to maintain the dollar's value, according to analysts' estimates. ``Every day you have to attract a certain amount to feed this massive current account deficit,'' said David Durrant, a currency strategist at Bank Julius Baer. ``Will there be enough inflow to continue a strong dollar? I don't think so.'' ``Overall demand for dollars just isn't as strong as it used to be, and next week's trade numbers just remind us how big a hole we have to fill'' to support the currency, said Craig Larimer, head of international market analysis at Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago. Among investors, ``there's somewhat less net inward flow to the U.S.'' ----(see url for article)-----Meanwhile, the euro strengthens on prospects of an ECB December 5th rate cute, and the Bank of Japan has been ordered by the Finance Ministry to weaken the yen through selling ¥4 trillion for dollars and euros.Look to gold ownership to manifest your savings.Call USAGOLD - Centennial for consultation based on your individual needs.R. Waverider (11/15/02; 15:41:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89717) VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html Thanks Black Blade! A nice weekend to All. NEMO me impune lacessit (11/15/02; 15:39:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 89716) To Max Rabbitz One small hint - try to read the last part of the last name of Mr. Mohammed Al-Asuquf backwards. Then it is possible to sleep yet another night.Best to YouNEMO mikal (11/15/02; 15:35:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89715) Russia reverses nuclear denial http://sg.news.yahoo.com/021114/1/34qmb.html Home - Yahoo! - Help - My Yahoo! Friday November 15, 3:27 AM Russia admits to nuclear theftSeveral kilograms (pounds) of low-enriched uranium and a few grams (ounces) of weapons-grade material have been stolen from various Russian nuclear sites over the past decade.The head of the federal nuclear and radioactive security oversight agency said massive new investments were needed to strengthen safeguards at Russia's nuclear sites and keep the dangerous material out of the wrong hands."There have been cases of leakage" over the past decade, said Yury Vishnyevsky, using a slang term for material being stolen by thieves."We are talking about grams (ounces) of weapons-grade materials, and kilograms of low-grade uranium used as fuel by nuclear power plants," the official said, according to Russian news agencies.....Russian officials have in the past denied a series of Western press reports alleging that radioactive material has been stolen from Russian nuclear sites.....End excerpts...While no apologies have apparently been issued, hopefully none will ever have to be in the form: "We are deeply sorry comrades for your loss." ElGordo (11/15/02; 13:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 89714) Gold gets a boost from inflation numbers WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Wholesale prices jumped much more than expected in October as car prices rose for the new models introduced that month and dealers cut back on incentives. Gas pump prices also raised eyebrows.The producer price index rose 1.1 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists looked for a 0.2 percent gain, betting that the tame inflation that has allowed the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates at historic lows would continue. Despite the shocking headline numbers, most economists say there's still little to suggest inflation is problem and now, little evidence deflation is worrisome. _________No more deflation worries? Industrial production down.So it will be stagflation like the 70's?@Max- I agree.@Silvercollector_Some say the history seems to indicate that Platinum goes first, followed by Gold, then Silver. Be patient. Mr Gresham (11/15/02; 13:30:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89713) Forex trade changes vs. Herstatt risk http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=263453 Good Economist reporting on how the big currencies are cleared.Belgian: Thanks for the excerpts. I didn't make it through FOA's, but the words ring clearer and clearer. (I feel like a kid at a parade standing on toes to try to see what is going on passing by. Still hard to believe we can't find any of the European thinking documented that would back him up.)Bound Spirit, Sierra, Golden Bear, Waverider, GfG, and a couple more -- that was an amazing exchange a couple nights ago. I'm going back to it again -- and again. Yes -- these are the golden thoughts that attach the ends to our getting of Life's means.Mikal -- that was an important post (mikal (11/13/02; 20:55:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 89570) on cultural globalization. Or, how easily a culture is destroyed vs. the difficulty of re-building something that sustains people's lives. Of course, it has happened to us, too -- the #1 "privileged" monkeys in this mad science laboratory. Aristotle (11/15/02; 13:23:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 89712) Belgian -- Thanks for EVERYTHING today! You've provided an EXCELLENT snapshot of FOA's voluminous work. Here's my own distillation of your distillation, especially designed for a very hasty world.What I've tried to bring forward is the element that still seems to be very hard for many people to either grasp or accept. The sooner they come to terms with this, the sooner they will see the need to accumulate Gold with gusto!!Following is my key morsels of Belgian's snippets of FOA:First and foremost in the ECB's political will to establish a credible fiat, Gold was and is set free to be valued at whatever level, free physical trading, would allow.With PHYSICAL PRICING, again setting the level for derivatives pricing, the dollar reserve system's evolution from gold-standard to derivative-standard, would permanently dissolve.There isn't enough "TRADABLE GOLD", to match the inflated paper gold markets, today.This change in "market-pricing-dynamics", will shift investor's perception and force private and public wealth hedgers to see "physical Gold" as having a far greater leverage over paper positions.Euroland will encourage a physical only market price that in turn ***ALSO FLOATS EURO-GOLD VALUES TO THE SKY.*** ((emphasis added by me)) All in a well balanced effort to replace the massive dollar-asset-base, it lost.By accumulating physical Gold, today, we are walking in the footsteps of giants...advancing with them as they work through this singular LONG TERM POLITICAL MOVE....we have changed our economic dynamics far too much for Gold to ever be used as CREDIT MONEY, again.= = = = =Amen.Wowzers! That's a tight presentation thanks to context previously provided. It truly represents the reasons I'm buying Gold -- sure, as financial security ("insurance,") but PRIMARILY for the expected great gains in purchasing value of Gold against goods and services as a result of this particular imminent evolutionary phase shift.Gold. Keep on getting you some. --- Ari USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/15/02; 12:02:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89711) The Holidays Made Easy http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html Marie will help secure your position as Hero of the Homestead! Belgian (11/15/02; 11:59:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 89710) More, remarkable, FOA thoughts : 06/'01 : Rates are lowered time and time again as money-substitutes expand at ever higher rates. Suddenly there is now, *NO* room for a FED-induced, business slowdown. Because, such a change would not just slow the economy, as in the past...IT WOULD WRECK THE ACTUAL CURRENCY STRUCTURE.Money-Quality is abandoned for just some measure of continued money demand. All eyes are trained on MAINTAINING FINANCIAL ASSET VALUES, with little regards to saving the main economic structure's PROFITABILITY, such as in the manufacturing sector.As long as the euro can stay behind the dollar on exchange rates...our (US) trade deficit MUST grow.Dollar-Reserve structure has shielded us from true "price-inflation".The *wealth-utility* of Gold, would be matched by the *necessity-utility* of digital money.Besides, we live in today and tomorrow, not the past...and we have changed our economic dynamics far too much for Gold to ever be used as CREDIT MONEY, again. Max Rabbitz (11/15/02; 11:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89709) ElGordo and the Al-Jareeza tape (msg#: 89642) http://antivirus.about.com/library/hoaxes/bljazeera.htm The Al-Jareeza tape of nuclear/chemical attack on the U.S. that was on the Asian Times site was removed because "it was based on an interview that appears to have been a hoax"The full interview is found at the above site with the following introduction."The following interview was conducted by a reporter for the Al-Jazeera network with the third-in-command of the AlQueda organization, Mr. Mohammed Al-Asuquf.Al-Asuquf's background is impressive; a doctorate inphysics and masters in international economics. In theinterview, he talks of Al Queda's plans with totaldetachment, with deep knowledge and an unshakeablecommitment to his cause. This interview was sent toAbel-Bari Atwan, chief editor of Al Quds, anArabic-language newspaper published in London, but wasnever printed, due to its highly revealing[inflammatory?] contents. A copy of the interview cameto Foz-do-Iguaçu, and was translated into Portugueseby a university professor in the city's Arabcommunity. This is probably the only existing versionof this interview not in Arabic." Max: I sure hope it's a hoax but the guy's understanding of our dot.com economy and dollar was chilling. And much of the scenario is plausible. USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/15/02; 11:51:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 89708) Gold German Marks http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html Consider adding some of these gold German 20 marks to your next order. A popular, attractive, and practical addition to any portfolio! Paper Avalanche (11/15/02; 11:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89707) While I'm at it - prediction #2 Dow down 200 at the close glennh10 (11/15/02; 11:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89706) Re: Bankruptcy Bill In all fairness, any bankruptcy legislation that holds people and businesses accountable by preventing them from "walking away" from their obligations must also apply to the banks. The credit card industry (the banks) is who pushed the Congress to pass this legislation. It would only be appropriate that the restrictions work in both directions. The banking industry in Japan is pretty much toast at this point. The twelve rate cuts we've endured have only served to increase bank leverage to keep the Ponzi pyramid intact awhile longer. They couldn't care less about the economy of the people. They saved the banks in the 1930's while everyone else drowned. Believe me, this system is coming down in all its glory; like a hot air balloon that's not getting much more hot air (there ain't much more room to the rate to cut). Morally, the banks should not have an "out" while everyone else is denied. I suggest writing to our senators and telling them to include the banks in the restriction, or else throttle the whole damn thing. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/15/02; 10:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 89705) Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...) http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html
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