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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/14/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Cytek (11/14/02; 21:40:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89665) Stupid is as Stupid does. Interesting day, more stupiditiy, more bad news, more layoffs but the market goes up up up. Stocks Climb as Consumer Spending Jumps NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rallied on Thursday after retail sales outside the auto sector (oh let's not include that )posted their biggest gain in six months, spurring hopes that U.S. consumers will continue spending and keep driving an economic recovery. (how long can they continue to do this?)Argentina defaults on World Bank loan Argentina has defaulted on a debt repayment to the World Bank of more than $800m that was due on Thursday. Argentina Skips Debt Payment, Sets Clock Ticking ..... Booom ... the market goes up!AMD cuts jobs as PC strategy falters.on Thursday said it would cut 2,000 jobs, or 15 per cent of its workforce, as it struggles to hold market share amid moribund PC sales. The market goes up!Sprint cuts 2,100 jobs in wireless division the US telecommunications group, on Thursday announced 2,100 job cuts in its wireless business, adding to concerns that the US mobile market is approaching saturation. The market goes up!Honeywell: $1.7 Billion Pension Deficit .... The maret goes up!Japan's banks slide on failure warningRed remains the colour on the Tokyo Stock ExchangeJapan's hard-pressed banks have seen their shares slide once more, a business leader reportedly warned that plans to clear bad debts would leave the sector in turmoil. In late October, the government unveiled its programme for sorting out the multi-trillion yen loan burden which is blocking fresh lending and exacerbating persistent deflation. you got it ...The market goes up and gold goes down.Lots of stupidity out there, hold on to your physical (gold) that's one that i can say is not stupid.Cytek Waverider (11/14/02; 21:18:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89664) Silver('nGold)collector "I wonder if the flip side is "we don't have what you have, therefore we will attempt to invade your country to secure our oil needs".I'm not sure that's the case. One must look at motivation and necessity. I think that Topaz articulated it quite nicely in his post that we in the west really cannot fathom what drives people to despair and acts of terrorism. Is it that our very existence is a religious affront to their fundamentalist ideals, or is it despair arising from deep feelings of social and political injustice? Or maybe it's both. I do believe that deep feelings of injustice can drive humans to acts of destruction, which maybe is the ultimate expression of their pain. Please don't get me wrong - I am in no way justifying terrorism, just trying to come to an understanding as I struggle myself to make some sense of what is happening to our world. Maybe you're right - maybe your statement is the flip side of the coin. Necessity is such a relative thing - in the west our wants have become our needs and we've lost the ability to discriminate between the two - built on a foundation of dependence on hydrocarbons as BB has so graciously reminded us of in his essays. People feel fear and pain when their very existence is threatened - let it be because you don't have clean water to drink and access to health care, or because gas is too expensive to operate your SUV. Maybe it is the flip side of the coin - it's just that the props are different. RE: Canadian troops - yes, a Senate defence committee report indicates just that - that military forces should be recalled with a 2 year moratorium to deal with the many problems that plague the armed forces. The report also calls for an extra $4 billion annually in defence spending - not suprising as this issue has been in the news off and on for many years now, especially the capital equipment needs. I can't see a complete retreat in overseas operations though - you don't just stop these things mid-stream and say hasta la vista, especially with the current ME instability. RE: a model for Canadian isolationism - I think Sierra hit that spot on. There's a few people it's important not to P*** off in life because they can make your life difficult. One is your secretary, and the other is our southern neighbor. It's not about Iraq oil for Canada - it's about relations, trade, exports - 80% to the US, allegiances, etc. And Silvercollector - who do you know that ever lived "happily ever after" :) Cheers,Waverider silvercollector (11/14/02; 20:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89663) R.Powell Hate to say this my good man but I was blinded as badly as you are today. Forget that last line of hardship and focus on this thought.Silver had a run-up in the last few months to some 5.05-5.10. It fell back to the range of what, 4.30-4.40 at its lows.If you plot time and compare the silver run-up to the anticipated SM run-up you will find that they closely coincide. Do not doubt my word, LOOK AT IT YOURSELF.The upwards bias of silver coincides with an upward bias in the economy at this time. Gold however, has remained in a tight range during the silver episodes.I do not doubt the potential that naked, silver shorts risk 'losing' it, but given that 5.10 did not tip-the-top I do not see any danger today at 4.55.Yesterday, if not for the rhetoric of a UN resolution acceptance, gold was testing critical resistance of $325 while silver floundered at $4.50, 'miles' from resistance.I've been a silver/gold collector for some time. I have made a call, how about you? R Powell (11/14/02; 20:27:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89662) silvercollector Regarding that change in the "status-quo" that you mentioned that you deem necessary for POG to rise, I buy homeowners insurance every year to insure the value of my home but I do not wish to see it hurt by fire, storms or vandels. Also, note that the POS should do very well indeed if the world is blessed with peace, prosperity and calm happiness now and for years to come. Humm.., let me look out the window for a star and I'll repeat that thought. Rich Cavan Man (11/14/02; 20:26:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 89661) Japan Inc. Japan to Announce Extra Budget; May Top 5 Tln Yen (Update1)By Mayumi Otsuma and Kanako ChibaTokyo, Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi may next week call for about 5 trillion yen ($41 billion) in new funds to cover tax shortfalls and bolster the economy, threatening his pledge to cap new debt sales. Koizumi will outline a new budget, due to be submitted to parliament in January, on Nov. 22, said Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa. The size of the planned budget needs to be at least 5 trillion yen, Trade Minister Takeo Hiranuma said. Japan is preparing the package to cover a shortfall in tax receipts that Shiokawa forecasts may be as much as 2.8 trillion yen, and to create jobs as new rules force banks to cut off more delinquent borrowers. That threatens Koizumi's pledge to cap bond sales at 30 trillion yen in the year ending March 31. "A trillion here, a trillion there; pretty soon your talking about real money."That's most of a quote by the late Senator Everett Dirksen. silvercollector (11/14/02; 20:20:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89660) goldenboy The dealer who I used to acquire metal says 'silver is a doorstop'.Gold....get you lots. silvercollector (11/14/02; 20:18:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89659) ElGordo Okay.....on Jan 1 let's all sell our gold, buy silver and precipitate a crash in that market!!!!!! silvercollector (11/14/02; 20:14:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89658) Sierra Thanks for 'catching' my drift, yet to hear from Ms. Waverider. ;)As of yet my homeland remains unknown, therefore I will throw out one more granade. With the vast majority on this forum 'wishing' for higher gold prices, I must assume higher gold prices per dollar. It is evitable given the gold/dollar ratio as a product of such mathematical equation, that all bets hinge on higher gold and/or lower dollar.I hope all understand, in said 'bets', they wish for a lower dollar, a change in the 'status quo', a shift in current policy if you will and I hope all can HANDLE IT.A successful 'bet' on gold will be as a result of a significant change in US 'structure'. I do not believe this to be debatable.Good luck. R Powell (11/14/02; 19:39:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89657) silvercollector My enthuasism for silver comes almost entirely from an analysis of the supply and demand numbers and not from notion that silver is part of the bi-metallic standard. Although, there are theories and proponents of silver backed currency. Silver often trades as a commodity but does seem to still have a relationship to gold. Some have observed this as more commodity like in the price downturns and more monetary like during the upward moves. Personally, I think silver will do well no matter what the general economy does but will perform better in a surging economy because this will hasten the day when existing supplies run dry. At that point yearly production will be insufficient (as it has been for the past 13 years) to satisfy demand. When speculative money is drawn into either market for "safe haven" or for perceived investment gains, I think both will rise together. No matter what the economy does, the deficit can not continue forever without something to restore equilibrium. What? Increased production will take years, silver use is inelastic, scrap reclaimation will take time and will not fill the void, so, price rationing will be necessary to curb demand. Note- all this is null and void if large, unknown stores of silver exist but I don't believe they do. Anyway, yes, gold is the ultimate base for a monetary system but this does not change the outlook for silver. Another note, I have never seen the silver/gold issue as an either/or choice. I have a great fondness and regard for both and believe the dollar price of both (along with most all tangible commodities) is destined to rise soon. The Fed. is not stronger than economic forces and will lose control of the creature they, themselves, have created. Can debt/credit be monetized without commodity price inflation?? How much for an ounce of gold or silver when Dunkin Dounuts charges $20 for a cup of coffee? My fundamental approach has always been existing supply or carryover from the previous marketing year plus total production for the coming year minus total projected use for the next year equalling existing supply or carryover (for the next year). Then, this new carryover figure divided by total use for the year giving a percentage number which can be used for price comparisons to previous years. The USDA uses this formula in it's WASDE (agricultural) reports. Price prediction is never easy but this is where most long term traders start. You can see how this simple formula does NOT work very well with any market in which total available existing supply is unknown or unknowable or both! Both gold and silver have so many more other factors involved than, say, corn or soybean oil, the corn and oil are never as exciting to watch. They're certainly easier to trade but not near as much fun. I'll not live forever, so even though I'm trying to learn and make some money, I'm also not adverse to having some fun. This for me is great fun. This interest is not shared by 99.9% of the people I come in contact with in my life. To all here.... Thanks Rich goldenboy (11/14/02; 19:04:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89656) @Silvercollector I doubt there is all that much coin showing up at the refiners anymore. This is anecdotal, based on talking to a dealer friend of mine. ElGordo (11/14/02; 18:58:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 89655) @Silvercollector I thought it was the "world" vs Goldbugs and nowthe goldbugs are turning on silver!I do know the Feds have more Gold than any other country.However they are completely out of Silver. I own both. silvercollector (11/14/02; 18:47:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89654) Here's the number 1 reason why I gave up on silver. Was it in '67 or '68 that the government stopped using silver to make coin? We have quad-drillions of silver dollars, halfs, quarters and dimes.The government had to HAVE come 4 billion oz's if they intended to continue in making silver coin.Silver coin was dropped, (a few dollars still are minted) along with other countries silver coin.The silver glut will take ANOTHER LIFETIME to meet equilbrium. Gold, however is held by governments. Given that 32,000 tonnes were held a generation ago, 32,000 tonnes are still held, despite massive fiat depreciation, thus more gold SHOULD BE HELD.Silver is not in demand, gold is. Sorry to the silver bulls, that's how I see it. mikal (11/14/02; 18:37:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 89653) @silvercollector "Why is the dollar going up, because there is a perception of no war?" Good question. I am sure there is substantial demand offsetting widespread and managed selling. Some major sources of this buying: 1) Safe haven buying from foreigners in war zones and amid political instability, e.g. Turkey, Venezuela, Israel 2) Safe haven buying from foreigners in economic chaos, e.g. Argentina, Brazil 3) Domestic and international currency speculators silvercollector (11/14/02; 18:35:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89652) Hmmmmm! On Jan. 1, 20003 we shall all sell our silver and place all proceeds (perhaps a little more) into gold bullion creating the necessary momentum to clear $330, causing the shorts, hedgers and other aleins to cover their 'naked' butts and send gold several hundred dollars higher.Come on 'chicken-livers' !!!! silvercollector (11/14/02; 18:29:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89651) R.Powell In the beginning I was a avid collector of silver, thus the name. In the last 2 years I have changed quickly into a collector of gold. Since reading history and the theory of a bi-metallic 'metal' standard it is apparent that silver and gold cannot co-exist. There have been times of predominantly silver and vice-versa with gold but never simultaneously.I invite you to read these issues.I believe, sincerely, that silver is (today, not necessarily tomorrow) a non-monetary metal and is tied more closely to commodity value. Gold is taking up the monetary role today and when 'PM'S' take a hike, gold will go and silver might.If silver 'goes', gold will likely by default, I believe the opposite venue might or might not include silver.I invite you to examine this logic.silvercollectorP.S.: This message may have ulterior motives. If we all crowd into gold at the same time, we might light the damn fuse!! Mr Gresham (11/14/02; 18:26:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 89650) Trail walk http://www.usagold.com/goldTrail/default.html CoinGuy's archive posts led me back to trying to figure what he and FOA were talking about -- I didn't, but there's nothing like an afternoon among those post-9/11 walks... silvercollector (11/14/02; 18:17:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89649) Why is the dollar going up.... .....because there is a perception of no war????? CoBra(too) (11/14/02; 17:52:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89648) Carry Trades The typical Austrian home buyer used the SFR, then the Yen to help finance his home via low IR's.Guess what the smart alecs figured out - the $ carry trade. Can you blame them? Nah!Got euro's or gold? - cb2 ElGordo (11/14/02; 17:47:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89647) 67,000 jobs lost in banking industry NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Bros. Holdings Inc. is cutting 500 jobs, or about 4 percent of its global work force, including chief investment strategist Jeffrey Applegate, as the Wall Street firm fights the market slump, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday. Lehman, which employs about 13,000 people worldwide, is eliminating positions throughout the company in reductions that began on Wednesday, the source said. Wall Street firms have fired thousands of employees as the stock market rout and a slack U.S. economy damaged businesses like trading, investing and advising on mergers. Since early last year, the Securities Industry Association estimates 67,000 jobs have been lost in the banking industry while hiring has only occurred in selective businesses like fixed income and derivatives. Barely a week ago, Merrill Lynch & Co. fired its chief economist and well-known Wall Street voice Bruce Steinberg. Merrill has already cut 18,600 jobs since the start of last year. Investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston also laid off nearly 20 percent of its research staff including chief market strategist Tom Galvin. Rivals Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. have also been axing employees. The job cuts come amid intense scrutiny of Wall Street research practices from regulators over allegations of biased research. New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and other regulators have alleged that Wall Street firms issued overly bullish research reports to win investment banking deals. R Powell (11/14/02; 17:12:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 89646) 3rd Autumn Precious Metals Seminar Is being held today and tomorrow in Toronto. Has anyone any news from this or any links to information of what is being discussed?? If so, please post. There always seems to be some breaking news that indicates that metals' prices are about to explode but, with the advantage of hindsight, I now think that it has been simply more and more pressure on gold that's being applied. The question now becomes, where's the breaking point? One large buyer or one more supportive event?? Any seminar news?? Rich CoBra(too) (11/14/02; 17:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89645) @Sector & MK Interesting that HSBC is taking over Household Finance - a move which at first glance looks like a feint... why would they want this decrepit co. at this stage? - since you've stated, though, HSBC has the gold and I feel you're right this may be a mere smokescreen.After all they've taken over Edmond Safra's Republic Bank of NY, a private bank catering to the globe's real wealthy -right after ES' demise. Republic was reknowned for its gold dealings - and it was even alledged that Safra's untimely death was probably linked to this fact - but who knows.Anyway, I guess the big buyers of gold are out there and happily digesting every ounce they can add to their stash on bargain basement prices. Why should they end their bonanza prematurely ...? Cheers cb2 R Powell (11/14/02; 16:44:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89644) Black Blade // M.K. // all I've often stated that it's my (humble, of course) opinion that the silver market is trading on technical factors only and that the fundamental supply vs demand situation is not now a consideration. After all, who thinks of existing supply in a market that has never seen a legitiment shortage in anyone's lifetime? (there was no physical shortage in 1980, with the U.S. government then holding approx. one billion ounces). Now, with numerous reports of physical gold shortages that both of you have refered to, I'm wondering which of the two metals will be the first to spark a mania? There is much more gold held in the world than silver even though silver exists in nature in greater quanities but, nevertheless, one or the other of these two, it would seem, will soon experience a shortage in the only place where a real shortage has staying power, namely the physical realm. This will spark a rally and short squeeze in the paper markets as well. Butler, Morgan and many other knowledgeable silver analysts have repeatedly opined that it will take the extreme measure of a physical shortage to wake up the silver market. Physical shortages are extreme measures, especially in silver where the situation may persist for some time in spite of price increases. We know that gold does exist in storage and who holds it but will it become available to alleviate a shortage? If so, at what price? What happens when the speculative money dogs get the scent? Wow! Rich mikal (11/14/02; 16:38:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 89643) @RPowell "It's also handy for making change for a gold sovereign." That would be nice, I look forward to such a day. Also, you may use any of the various smaller weight gold bullion coins: Canadian 1/20 & 1/10 oz. Maple Leafs. US 1/10 oz. Eagles. Austrian .11 oz. ducats, SA 1/10 oz Kruggerands, Australian 1/10 oz Nuggets, Austrian 1/10 oz Philharmonics, Isle of Man 1/20 & 1/10 oz Angels, and many more! Regards ElGordo (11/14/02; 16:34:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89642) 2nd Al-Jareeza tape gets no publicity http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/DK15Aa01.html Al-Usuquf details the whole plan. "First, one head would be detonated, which would cause the deaths of 800,000 to 1 million people and a chaos never seen before. During this chaos, two or three planes, which are now disassembled inside barns near empty roads in the US countryside, would take off in suicide missions to pulverize another two or three big American cities with chemicals. Once the disease was identified, all seaports and airports would be quarantined. Land borders would also be closed. No plane, boat or car would enter or leave the US. This would be total chaos." The first target would be the city "that would offer the best conditions, for example bright sky and winds of eight or more miles an hour blowing towards the center of the country, so radioactive dust can contaminate the largest possible area". This attack would not knock out the US, recognizes al-Usuquf, "But the process would be initiated. As with the World Trade Center, it would be just a question of time for the whole economic structure to be turned to dust. If the objectives are reached with one bomb and diseases, probably we will save the lives of other people, but it's risky, and probably six more bombs will be detonated, one a week, and more attacks with chemical weapons will be launched." According to estimates made by al-Usuquf "and Ayman al-Zawahiri", al-Qaeda's number 2, about 15 million people would die, victims of the bombs and the radiation. Among those contaminated by diseases, "25 percent will die, a figure around more than 5 million, plus many others due to the chaos and disorder". Al-Usuquf does not fear an American military response. "Even if five or 10 cities are chosen at random to be destroyed, it will still be a small price to pay. The problem is that the economic despair will be so great that even if it saves [money] by not using weapons, American liquidity will be near zero, and the US will make more money selling a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier to Turkey or Italy for $5 billion, because they will urgently need to recapitalize. But it will be too late. Moreover, what will remain of an American soldier's morale to fight knowing that his whole family died and his country ceased to exist? To fight for what?" ElGordo (11/14/02; 16:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 89641) DT to lay off 46,000 jobs http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2475083.stm Deutsche Telekom has racked up a net loss of 24.5bn euros (£15.5bn; $24.6bn) in the first nine months of this year, the biggest loss in German corporate history.-------Deutsche Telekom's eye-watering losses were inflated by asset write downs in an acknowledgement the mobile licences and foreign businesses it spent about $70bn to buy in the late 1990s were now worth a fraction of that. -------The firm had already said it plans to cut about 46,000 jobs, or 20% of the workforce by 2005, but the layoffs face opposition from trade unions. ElGordo (11/14/02; 16:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89640) @R Powell Hello- Yes,there are so many uses for this metal, its amazing.I'm learning more and more about Silver. It has had quite aneffect on our language even. No wonder the only way to kill avampire was with a Silver Stake through the heart! LOL R Powell (11/14/02; 16:07:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89639) ElGordo // silver ElGordo, thanks for the silver news (89584). I've seen many articles describing medical uses for silver. Silver is also being considered as a replacement for arsenic in pressure treating wood, as a non-toxic ingedient in marine paints, and as a coating for superconductive electrical cable. Demand should increase in many inelastic uses as silver possesses some very unique characteristics. It's also handy for making change for a gold sovereign. Thanks again for the news Rich sector (11/14/02; 16:04:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89638) @ MK -- Gold In Size As it turns out...Size matters Especially to those bullion banks running a gold scam. The GoldCorp [Hard to get gold] story is as important just as the HSBC Hong Kong closures of their gold window. HSBC has the physical, they just don't want to deal. Rumor has UBS also is buying 50 tonnes form "Offshore sources".When I first found in the Fall of 200 that 1,700 tonnes of "Bullion Reserve" had been changed to "Custodial Gold" there was a simultaneous disappearance from the various depositories of what I call "Display gold". Up until Sept 2000 the Treasury kept a fair amount of gold in different forms, kilo bars, various numismatic coinage of historical nature and production bars for display. After then all the display gold was gone. Removed.As the truth both about badly falling real interest rates [Now negative] and manipulation diffuses throughout the investment community an increasing demand for gold in size will be felt but it's not that simple. People are a bit funny about watching their wealth vanish with rates headed to zero. The date [T*] is fast approaching when a determined buyer will place a big order. That single order will crash the gold market as we know it. It will push the Treasury's delicately balanced transcontinental rig job through a barrier.It will happen in a single instant according to currency crisis experts. There will be no warning, no time to stock up on gold because ALL the available gold for purchase will be had by speculators prepared to act swiftly. A call will be received at USA Gold to purchase all their inventory...all of it at a negotiated price above spot. The proprietors will have no choice but to sell. There may not be any more after the T* date...certainly not at today's fire sale suicidal prices.Those well financed, billion dollar hedge fund speculators are ready tonight, tomorrow, next week. All they need is a TAD more information about the status of the manipulators, their weakness, their intentions.They know that there are two irresistible forces acting on the cabal, (1) the Federal reserve's unsustainable macroeconomic policies and (2)the dwindling supply of physical metal to sell down the gold price. The cabal has two and only two choices stop selling with some left or let it all run out.When he said about the Washington Agreement, "We were staring into the abyss", Sir Eddie George was not speaking of a temporary abyss. He perceptively recognized that the Western world has never experienced a time without gold to sell in support of its currencies. That approaching condition means permanent chaos for the dollar and euro, not just "A soft spot" as the Master of the Universe said yesterday. One doesn't come back from an abyss.The cabal lives each day in terror fearing a large buyer.I urge all the viewers here to act now while the advantage of smallness still persists. ElGordo (11/14/02; 15:39:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89637) More troubles for Japan http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Erdman's+World&siteid=mktw New rules governing the capital adequacy of banks on a global scale are in the process of being finalized by the central bank of central banks, the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Until now the paid-in capital of banks was required to be at least 8 percent of their outstanding loans, regardless of whether they were performing or not. That is scheduled to change -- and radically so. The new rules will require a five-fold increase in the capital cover for non-performing loans. Theoretically that would put every large bank in Japan out of business since, due to the immense number of non-performing loans on their books, there is no way that they could raise enough capital in the marketplace to meet these new standards. If they chose the alternate route of writing off those bad loans the results would be the same. They would all go broke.So what to do?In what amounts to a last ditch attempt to bail out the nation's banks the Japanese government, through it central planning arm -- the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) -- is in the process of setting up what will be known as the Resolution and Collection Corporation.It's mission will be to assess the banks' loan portfolios in order to determine which heavily indebted companies should be cut off from any further credits and put out of business, and which are thought capable of being rescued from bankruptcy and rebuilt. In the latter cases, the RCC will buy from banks the outstanding loans extended to such firms and begin supplying them with new credit in amounts thought sufficient to rehabilitate them.But nobody knows what criteria will be applied, and thus who the ultimate survivors will be.This is bound to greatly add to the uncertainties already hanging over Japan's economy and its financial system. For if the RCC gets too aggressive it could set off a wave of major bankruptcies that might panic the markets. If, however, it loads up on bad loans using taxpayers' money, and then keeps throwing more good money at them in the form of new loans designed to keep the horde of Japanese corporate zombies above ground, the malaise that currently engulfs the country could go from bad to worse.The fiscal mess that the country is already in could deepen even further for yet another -- new -- reason. As part of the overall rescue plan, the government has announced its intention to take major equity positions in Japan's largest banks in order to bolster their capital stock and keep their share prices from collapsing on the exchanges. This amounts to a reversion to the type of government-directed central planning, Japan style, that is at the basis of the troubles that have led to this crisis. What this would do to the Japanese credit ratings should be obvious.The financial world is at present most worried about the unknowable consequences of a possible American invasion of Iraq next year. The probability of that occurring in the near future has temporarily receded.It might be well advised to start worrying more about the possible consequences of a major financial crisis in Japan, the world's second largest economy, in the spring of 2003 -- the probability of which is now growing at an alarming rate. ElGordo (11/14/02; 15:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 89636) Civil War looming in Venezuela? CARACAS, Venezuela, Nov 14 (Reuters) - In stark contrast to a tranquil Christmas Nativity scene set up nearby, Venezuelan National Guard troops and angry supporters of President Hugo Chavez staged a tense stand-off in downtown Caracas on Thursday.The troops, in riot gear and hefting shotguns and automatic rifles, stood guard outside Caracas' City Hall, where two days earlier they clashed with hard-line pro-Chavez militants who besieged the offices of anti-government Mayor Alfredo Pena.The Chavez backers, known as "Chavistas" in Spanish, are licking their wounds after the battles with police and guardsmen around Bolivar Square on Tuesday in which two people were killed and more than 20 injured.The Chavistas, who grudgingly gave ground as the National Guard moved them back on Thursday, were still seething against Pena, other members of the opposition, and the police."This is a fight to the death," Jose Vilorio, a 38-year-old marketing employee, told Reuters.He spoke beside a statue of Simon Bolivar, Venezuela's 19th century independence hero whom former paratrooper Chavez claims as the main inspiration behind his self-proclaimed revolution in the world's No. 5 oil exporter.The Nativity scene, erected well before December by local officials in this pro-Chavez stronghold, carried a sign with the words: "The Revolution advances at a victorious pace."Chavez's opponents accuse the populist president, who survived a short-lived coup in April, of dragging the oil-rich nation toward economic ruin and Cuban-style communism with his revolutionary rhetoric and left-wing policies.Tuesday's clashes were the second serious outbreak of street violence in Caracas this month. Black Blade (11/14/02; 15:26:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 89635) World Bank confirms Argentina default http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021114/economy_argentina_confirmation_1.html Snippit:WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The World Bank confirmed on Thursday that Argentina has defaulted on a more than $800 million payment that had to be made by close of business Thursday, saying the government will only pay interest on the debt. "The World Bank today confirmed that it has received a partial payment of $79.2 million from the government of Argentina against a scheduled payment of $805 million that was due October 15," the World Bank said in a statement.Black Blade: The check's in the mail. No really. Mr Gresham (11/14/02; 15:24:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89634) Boilermaker's link to GATA to Hathaway's 1999 essay http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/hathaway082899.html Really. I just keep clicking into these things, and read 'em when I'm on phone hold (or in voicemail hell). Can't clear these windows till I've at least skimmed the articles.Amazing how much of the story Hathaway nailed down, over 3 years ago. Amazing how they've kept it going this much longer.Bit of prophecy here, on Aug. 28, 1999: "The recent market value of Ashanti's hedge book was $290mm, using conservative assumptions. What is interesting is that this major corporate asset would be worth nothing if gold traded at $325. At $350, the company would begin to face margin calls." Was it only a month later? TownCrier (11/14/02; 15:22:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89633) Two items. Some of you will nod upon seeing in print These are from today's WGC report by Rhonna O'Connell:"...news that the Iraqi parliament had accepted the UN requirements over weapons inspectors stimulated a wave of profit taking and stale bull liquidation. This triggered stop loss sales and prices slid to probe support at $317/ounce before regaining some poise.+Dealers are of the view that the hefty activity yesterday will have flushed out a good proportion of speculators. The marked increase in open interest on COMEX on Tuesday suggested that fresh longs had been instituted; many of these may have closed out rapidly yesterday as stops were hit."ALSO"Dr. Greenspan's Congressional testimony.... He said that the Fed had cut rates by 50 basis points last week in an effort to ensure that the economy worked its way through its current weak phase and to try to avoid a recession.+Dr. Greenspan also countered those observers who foresee deflation, with the words 'We are not close to a deflationary cliff,' and that there is no 'meaningful limit' to the Fed's power to inject money into the economy."-------------Repeat: There is no 'meaningful limit' to the Fed's power to inject money into the economy."Waiter, we shall have the hyperinflation.""Very well, sir. May I recommend the gold antacid before we serve the entree."Choose your preferred malady, gold will stand you in good stead. Call Centennial today.R. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/14/02; 15:03:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89632) Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...) http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html
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