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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/14/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) justamereBear (10/14/2000; 23:04:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 39047) Leigh & gidsek Leigh 39020Thank you, and very pleased to "meet you", make your aquaintance, or whatever the appropriate phase is. What is it anyway? I am relatively new to the internet.I think that what happened then could provide us with hints as to what might happen when fiat collapses.gidsek 39019I've been searching all day for my glasses and just found them on my forehead-- Of course, "gone with the wind". Still, while I have a request in with the library, to see if there is a copy in the system, I am going to try to locate a less fictionalized account of what happened, not knowing whether the author did their homework.Likewise, Thank you, and pleased to communicate with you. Zenidea (10/14/2000; 22:53:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 39046) Ag From : J.Cook-investment rarities.com Sensational Silver August 2000 "Within our lifetime, silver may very well become more valuable than gold, as it was in ancient Egypt." Jerome Smith Truly great profit opportunities are rare. Most people never see them or take advantage of them. The secret to capitalizing on these "once in a lifetime opportunities," is to buy into them before the knowledge of their profit potential becomes widespread. As more and more people become aware of an opportunity, the price appreciates and the potential for a big percentage gain lessens. The key is to get in on the ground floor. Such opportunities (as silver is today) often appear to be dead in the water. That dissuades most people. They won't act until they see a price rise. Then they dither some more. Soon it's too late. To make the most of a powerful opportunity to profit, you must act beforehand with independence and a certain amount of courage. I am going to lay out the strongest cases for silver that you may ever see for any asset. I'm talking about a possible percentage gain of from 1000% to 2000% for the reflective metal. You may argue that such gains are available in technology and internet stock. There are some differences. One is that nobody gets in your face so forcefully and beats the drum for a stock as I am now doing with silver. You can't say the opportunity was not presented to you. Secondly, many huge gains in stocks aren't realized because much of the stock purchased at low prices is lettered or restricted from sale. Thirdly, there is still tremendous risk in high-tech equities. Many companies fail and others have seen their stock price collapse. If you bought these stocks late last year, you probably got hurt. Furthermore, many stocks eventually lose all their value. A major difference with silver right now is that there is limited downside risk. At $5.00 an ounce, silver fundamentals argue against any significant drop. In that sense it is a much stronger holding than a share priced at $5.00. The value of silver can never vanish or become worthless as can many types of stock speculations. DREAM FORMATION One of the most bullish chart patterns for a stock or commodity is known as a basing pattern, or flat base breakout. On this chart the price movement crawls along in a straight line for months or years. It is said to be building a base. Then it breaks out to the upside. Investment lore says "the longer the base, the bigger the move." The chart for silver shows a flat base for the past twelve years with only a small interruption or two. Some of the most powerful price moves have come off a flat base. Silver has built such a base and prices can catapult upward in a price breakout at any time. RUBBER BAND One of the things silver guru Jerome Smith taught me years ago was how any kind of intervention in a free market would eventually boomerang. (Smith was the author of "Silver Profits in the Seventies," a powerful and accurate analysis of silver that was said to have heavily influenced the Hunt Brothers). At the time, silver and gold were coming off a period of government price controls. This had artificially depressed the price. According to Smith a powerful upward surge was inevitable after this price suppression was relaxed. He claimed that prices would explode upwards after the controls were lifted and as usual, he was right. A similar situation exists today with silver short sales that artificially suppress the price. In a nutshell, a tremendous volume of silver has been borrowed and then sold. The people who loaned the silver (central banks) expect to be repaid and most would not have sold it at $5.00 an ounce. In effect, the mining companies and others who borrowed the silver and then sold it have kept the price depressed. This silver wouldn't have been sold at those prices by the owners. It's wacky and it's not normal to free markets. Commodity laws prohibit short sales from mining companies for more than one year's production. That's because nobody can look into the future for years ahead. Yet mining companies such as Barrick and others have borrowed silver and sold it in amounts up to five years of future production. It must be paid back eventually so it represents a huge short overhanging the market for years to come with the likely outcome of a painful short squeeze. Silver expert, Theodore Butler, argues that silver would be $15 to $20 an ounce without these free-market irregularities. After all, who would sell silver at giveaway prices (under the cost of production) when it's in known short supply, and demand is far greater than supply? Nobody sells something for which there is a shortage until they are enticed to do so by higher prices. Yet that's what's been happening. This represents more fuel on a potential bonfire. Ted Butler insists there will be an explosion that forces up the price of silver until these market distortions are cleared. Then the price of silver will have to come to rest at levels that reflect true supply and demand factors. According to him, it's not out of the question for silver to rise to $50 or $100 an ounce. Figure it out yourself. You have booming industrial demand for silver (soon to be a billion ounces a year). The available supply from scrap recovery and mining is 25% less than required. Above ground supplies are tapped out and used up. There is an ongoing short of stupendous levels that's so precarious it's considered by some to be an act of financial hari-kari. Silver has an incredible number of industrial uses and most can't be substituted. Mining production can't be easily expanded because most silver comes as a byproduct of other types of mining. Silver production fell last year. Taken in total it's an amazingly bullish story that only needs to gain wide currency before buying pressure puts the squeeze on. Ted Butler prophecies that the frantic run up will go down in history as one of the powerful price explosions ever to occur. SteveH (10/14/2000; 22:05:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39045) FOA said today, "It's a clear choice for anyone walking this trail; use paper gold derivatives to gain more dollars or hold physical gold to gain more wealth?"At what point then would the paper gold or gold derivative market fail? Answer: At the point that the dollars earned through paper gold derivatives tried to buy physical and it becomes apparent, public, obvious, well-know that paper gold can no longer buy physical gold. When would this time come? When no more gold in quantity is available or released to satisfy the physical demand.The Washington agreement was the shot across the bow. Physical is running out and will be doled out over five years. Anymore and you are on your own.OPG (other peoples gold) is being shaken loose through political arm twisting to meet what other paper gold derivatives needing transferred to physical. When OPG is gone, when five years pass or sooner, when the public begins a buying spree in gold in earnest, any or all of these or an unseen event (dollar tanking because of ME chageover to Euro for oil) causing a drying up of physical happens, then gold will rise explosively.How close is this event? Judging by recent volatility in the markets and overseas in the ME, I believe soon, but everytime soon arrives, the nation players turn their cards over one by one, delaying the game. Truly, Nations play in the gold commodity market through agents or agents of agents, they do play and it is obvious. So, in the words of the song, "Bye-bye Miss American Pie" The chevy has been driven to the levy but the levy is dry (or getting there) and the gold old boys are drinking whiskey and rye singing this will be the day paper gold dies.So let us not kid ourselves (GATA listening?), nations control gold, not commodity brokers, or miners. Miners are silent because they hold the key to the levy. This game is so much bigger than they. It is about a fight to the finish. Somebody threw the rulebook out and we are witnessing our paper gold worth hit the skids while nations vie for position. When positions are set, the levy will be refilled, but not with whiskey nor rye. Midas Mulligan (10/14/2000; 21:40:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 39044) What keeps the price of gold down It's simply forward selling by gold producers and selling by central banks. They, the myopic, sell gold to raise dollars to save the economic system which is analogous to the Titanic. This is govt welfare for the wise as it allows for accumulation at depressed prices. I can't understand why so many here believe it's conspiritorial, evil, or malicious. What they are doing is not intended to be against gold though it is, as they don't know gold. These people are like the psychiatrist in What About Bob, nothing to get worked up about. I see too much paranoia concerning those keeping the price of gold down which is creates unnecessary anxiety and friction between people. It's something I've delt with myself all of my life and have overcome. USAGOLD (10/14/2000; 21:28:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39043) Cavan Man. . . I will remind you of another Horseman. . . .Our Fifth Horseman thundering over yonder hill. Talk of here long before others recognized the power of this threatening visage. . .Rising Oil. . .Unfortunately he hasn't "passed by". PPI up .9% on Friday and I don't believe we've come close to seeing all the fall out from that!Thanks for the Yeats. . .I've only read him in passing. Should he be studied?? I have to say I keep running into him these days. Why?? Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 21:18:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 39042) USAGOLD and "Holtzman" MK, I completely agree. I really enjoy the Holtzman' posts. There's a lot to be said about the Celtic Tiger and the Euro experiment. I do not have all the answers and I look to contributors like this Holtzman fellow to provide enlightenment.I will say one thing though. I was there (Ireland) for two weeks a year ago this week. Since my last visit (nine years prior) I must say I did not recognize the country. Not long ago, the Irish had not two pennies to rub together. There was no capital to be formed. Capital consisted (for most Irish) of the roof over their heads and the produce of their meager estates. Today, well, you know the story.I suppose my problem with the British stems from history, plain and simple. The enlightenment (gleaned from history) is teriffic but to my everlasting regret, I am becoming a "professional Irishman"; something I always have disdained.I shall name my Glen of Imaal terrier "Collins" and trouble Holtzman no more. I'll close with an interesting and timeless exhortation with regards to temporal existence:"Cast a cold eye on life, on death.Horseman; pass by."WB Yeats (tombstone epitath) Midas Mulligan (10/14/2000; 21:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 39041) Why I didn't, and don't, participate in the bull market In 1990 Gold was almost 500$, the markets were at the end of a bear market, and the Fed rate had been raised to 9%. Then the Fed lowered rates to 3% over the next 1.5 years to revive the economy from the recession. The Fed, for the next 10 years, created a "giant sucking sound" of money flowing into stocks and bonds, a mania, or a bull market. I saw it coming in 90 and I told myself to not participate in it because then I'd get sucked into the siren song and lose touch with reality and real money which is gold. Since then I've abstained from stocks and bonds and only invested in gold. I've lost 80,000 dollars since 93 (always thought inflation was around the corner) from gold stocks and options. All I own now is a .10 oz gold eagle coin and some warrants on a gold penny stock. I feel like the character in the Old Man in the Sea. But at least my mind is clear of any crowd madness, or popular delusion concerning the stock and bond mania bubble, and I plan on buying gold by making money off of put options and then converting it to gold and gold stocks and options (leap calls on Barrick Gold) before the price of gold rises. I think that inflation and the price of gold rise with the rise of interest rates. So when the economic data provoke the Fed into raising rates that will inflate prices and thus the price of gold, just the opposite, a reversal of what's happened since 1982. USAGOLD (10/14/2000; 20:59:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 39040) Some responses. . .Top to bottom Stranger, sorry for the typos in my message to you. I was in a hurry. Dinner time.Cavan Man. . .Good Sir. The pleasure is mine. And thank you for your presence here. Had the good fortune to talk with a fellow meister in Ireland who was looking to acquire some more yellow and he told me that they've put price controls on a pint. We have asked to republish his whole email to me so that all can get a feel for what's happening in Ireland with respect to the EU and euro. It's an interesting story. He has a solid, interesting perspective to share. Also, Cavan Man, I thought Holtzman's post one of the best we've had in a long while here. Hello, Holtzman and thank you.Java Man. . . . I have yet to meet a paper money man I could convert to gold or gold man I could convert to paper.We must understand our limitations and not spend our energies needlessly. At times, events and personal understandings will work their magic whether we intend them to or not.Megatron. . . .'Tis Randy Strauss, our brilliant TownCrier, who runs the show. I just show up from time to time to post and talk with my fellow goldmeisters. I can only hope that the ranks of knowledge and understanding continue to grow from this endeavor. I can't tell you who much it means to all of us here at Centennial to see the growth and popularity of this site. Mr. Gresham. . .Ed Stein did a cartoon here for the Rocky Mountain News where he showed an Arab throwing rocks and an Israeli shooting iron. Each was keeping score on his portion of a wall. The one said "Eyes" with a long row of marks/scores; the other said "Teeth" with a long row of marks/scores. I thought that Mr. Stein's representation said it all.Towncrier. . .I just tried to post without putting in my code and I was able to bounce back to my original post! This is terrific. canamami (10/14/2000; 20:47:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39039) Many Thx, and Some Musings First, I have been away for a while due to work and personal commitments. I have caught up a bit, and I would like to thank TownCrier and MK for the honourable mention. It is an honour to be recognized by such illustrious judges of merit.Some Musings:1. I listened to Don Coxe's call tonight. There was a question re gold. Coxe said he doesn't mention gold as a hedge any more because as soon as it makes a move, some sniper(s) just shoot it down. He states that the POG won't move until the "dollar as haven" mentality ends. He seems to believe that some significant events must occur before the POG moves. (My sense is that Coxe tends to been favourable towards gold's role; I infer he was referring to gold in this context as a means of hedging to preserve wealth in dollar terms, as opposed to gold as an alternate store of wealth).2. Who are the snipers shooting gold down? Whoever they are, I continue to believe that they must be directly or indirectly backed by official holders; otherwise their actions would be too risky.3. The snipers are killing much of the support for the POG by their actions, which means they need to engage in less and less activity as time goes on. it seems they allow a rally to occur, to get the goldbugs excited, then they clamp down; this approach is much more effective in demoralizing the goldbugs.4. People won't flock to gold as a hedge to preserve dollar denominated wealth until they believe the snipers will be overcome. This requires some new official embracement of gold akin to the Washington Agreement. The big fear is the official sector overhang (perceived or real), and the general investor needs assurance that the official sector will not dump, or that other (probably official) activity will nullify any dumpers.5. Gold's role as ultimate safe haven is tied in with its role as inflation hedge. Inflation in the early and late 70's gave rise to fears that the dollar would be toast; hence, the drive to gold. Quaere whether a new period of inflation will help gold, unless people fear that the dollar will lose most or all of its value, as opposed to just some of its value. In other words, will mere inflation help gold unless that inflation places the dollar's continued value or existence into doubt?6. The desire for Iraq to receive euros for payment is interesting, and tends to corroborate part of the FOA/Another thesis. However, such moves do not take place on an empty chess board, and Uncle Sam is a pretty skilled and sometimes ruthless player. REVELATION (10/14/2000; 20:35:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 39038) MY 10 CENTS WORTH 7 REASONS TO INCLUDE PRECIOUS METALSIN YOUR INVESTMENT PLAN1) Gold and silver are at or near historic lowsadjusted for inflation2) Both metals are indestructable and have stood thetest of time for thousands of years. Governments havecome and gone, but gold and silver are still with us.3) The investing public has sold his or her share of theprecious metals market and has placed the proceeds into paper assets. The public historicly has always been on thewrong side of the market.4) Oil prices have quadrupled over the last 18 monthsand inflation is showing up everywhere. Even the government who's inflation numbers where distortedare now showing much more inflation than otherwiserealized.5) Inflation will only get worse because it's going to takeyears to raise interest rates and lower inflation with allthe money still locked up in the stock market. The worldis on a binge and to ring out the excesses will not be doneovernight, probably a few years.6) Gold and silver are liquid assets and can be sold insmall denominations and can be tax free. Secrecy andprivacy can be very advantageous. Lets not forgetthey are portable and easy to hide. Midnight gardeningcan be a favorite passtime.7) If you check out, you can pass it on to your familyand heirs tax free. No one has to know. Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 20:03:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 39037) USAGOLD MK, Many thanks for the 20 Marks (at a competitive price). It is good to add to my antique coin collection. Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 20:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 39036) Gresham... You might spend a week on Mt. Athos. That might be the difference for you. Sophia...CM Mr Gresham (10/14/2000; 19:49:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 39035) Auspec, Cavan Man, JavaMan Thank you for your responses. You are good and wise companions on this golden path we walk.I sparked a fracas one Sunday last year (in my first week as a poster) by speaking disrespectfully here of another's beliefs. Won't do that again. Most of my life was saturated with religion for the first 30 years, and I am enjoying life now largely without it, while carrying deep respect and sympathy for those who honestly live it, as you describe.My guiding lights the past 30 years have been Gandhi, Dr. King, and Einstein, so my surmisal that a religious life should lean toward non-violence should not be considered too strange, no?It occurs to me lately that I am trying to recover from an over-romanticism of life, and that could start with romance itself, go through religion, politics, economics, and yes, even gold. (oops gotta go -- kitchen duties calling) Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 19:45:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 39034) Holtzman: From beyond "the Pale" Note: "the Pale" was a small area on the eastern coast of Ireland where, after the award of Ireland to Henry II in 1205 by the only English Pope (Hadrian, methinks), the Norman's took up residence. Significantly, this was the only area the Normans ever truly controlled. Holtzman: All this talk from you about Ireland being ptiched and, "tossed about"; they've not done too badly in only 79 years of FREEDOM. The Euro will replace the Punt as it will Sterling. JavaMan (10/14/2000; 19:00:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 39033) The Stranger, Mr. Gresham, USAGold... To TheStranger...your gift has profound implications. The more the recipient understands what they have received, the more they will appreciate it and know that you care! And what is most interesting is that the attributes of the gift reflect the values of the one who gives it. In other words, you are obviously one who recognizes and appreciates such qualities as honesty, integrity, value, durability, timelessness, etc. etc and the act of unselfishly sharing all of that with another is no small gesture. What a fine example to set! Hello Mr. G.As "Religion" may, in fact, turn out to be our fifth horseman, perhaps a case can be made that some observations in that area may not be Off Topic. You said, "And I thought religion was supposed to have something to do with peace." One thing is for sure...you can't base your supposition on history. Consider this: "The one question henceforth is, how shall man get back to that Paradise which he has lost? In Gen. chapter iv, we have, as the first step revealed, God's way, which Abel took; and man's way, which Cain invented. There never has been other than those two ways- "the way of God" on the one hand, and "the way of Cain" (Jude ii) on the other. In the one way, the believing sinner is brought to the confession "Nothing in my hand I bring." In the other, independent, rebellious man says the opposite - Something in my hand I bring." This is the one thing common to all systems of religion. They quarrel and fight to the death over the question as to what that "Something" is to be: but they are all at one in agreeing that it must be "something". And so the weary conflict has gone on, and will continue to the end."Sir USAGold, thanks for the affirmation given to all of us gold advocates. To some extent, it is not surprising to see a chasm form as a result of a difference in values. We are, simply, in the minority in a lot of respects, a position I've found myself in on many occasions and have grown accustom to it. Based on the behavior of the masses, I find it quite comforting too. Also, after reading your msg# 39032, I regret that I used e-mail last week to conduct business...I assumed you have a lot on your plate and opted for the more efficient approach, but I see now that I should have called, instead, to chat. Oh well...that...won't happen again. USAGOLD (10/14/2000; 18:16:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 39032) Stranger. . . . The feeling is mutual. I thoroughly enjoyed our conversation and hope to have many more. A small follow up to the previous post: Quite often, a goldmeister calling the office for quotes is astonished when I pick up the phone. But as I metioned in our conversation, one of the things I enjoy most about being in this business is the people I meet and I have met some extraordinary individuals over the years. For that reason, I doubt I will ever completely give up taking calls from the public. The Forum provides a glimpse of what I'm talking about. Many who post here are also clients, I am proud to say. Just before you called yesterday, I had the pleasure of talking with Ph in LA and a wide variety of gold topices. . . . Oh well. . .All in a day's work ...... life is tough here in the Castle.Let me know if you get attached to that gold in hand, and I'll replace if for you after Christmas. megatron (10/14/2000; 18:07:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39031) USAGOLD I would like to thank whoever runs this service because it's provided me with a lot of insight into events that I otherwise would be in the dark about. As an active paper trader and aetheist I certainly disagree with much here,but it's SO MUCH FUN! As a person who writes music and sound effects for TV/CD, I am constantly amazed at how tuned in to the 'real' angle/spin posters are here, while those around me are the most disconnected bunch of whining re-distributionist's you could meet. Symbolic Analyst's I think we're called. Thank you again and I hope you get paid big for this.Ps. Shameless plug for my show, "Action Man", Saturday AM on NBC. Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 18:04:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39030) USAGOLD MK, it's been a good thing for me these many months hanging out with you and all the other wackos here (especially Aristotle--he's really crazy). Many thanks....CM Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 18:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 39029) the Stranger ....and the nice thing about the Philharmonic is, it is not "legal tender" here in the US. Certainly, it is legal tender on the old continient. That being said, it is a full 2000 Shillings. Is that chopped liver? (You knew all that!) Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 17:59:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39028) Mr. Gresham Too often, people focus on what they find distasteful in outward manifestations or representations of "religion". The trap one can fall headlong into is one of unremitting cynicism. "Religion" is within; not without.Religion is a fine thing if one observes both the letter and Spirit of the proscriptions. These hateful people you indirectly reference; they might well be religionists but they are certainly not Christians, Moslems or Jews.Distraction and obfuscation are a favorite tools of the evil one. Worship Him. Shalom....CM TheStranger (10/14/2000; 17:34:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 39027) Michael Kosares Michael - Great Post!I might add that a gold bug is a fellow just like everybody else, only he has a sack of coins in his hand and a worried look on his face. But Aristotle, Gandalf and a whole bunch of others would shoot that one down in a hurry. Ah... peace of mind(I should get me some). Anyway, lately it seems to be everyone else who has the worried look on his face.Meantime, thanks for your help the other day. It was marvelous speaking with you over the phone. I am very excited about the pending arrival of my Philharmonic. I will give it as a Christmas gift, but, for about ten weeks, I will get to hold it in my hand, and it will be mine, all mine! AHAHAHAAAA! auspec (10/14/2000; 17:33:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 39026) Mr. Gresham It is indeed a sad state of affairs and quite clear why so many avoid religion altogether. Fanaticism clouds the greater issues. Regards. Midas Mulligan (10/14/2000; 17:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39025) Bonedaddy To explain further, you "can't serve two masters", ie. Gresham's law. So when you produce and profit you are forced to pay half of it in taxes which is an investment in big government at the expense of your personal freedom. The rest you invest in the private sector for your own personal benefit. It's a contradiction, "the cross", that makes you commit slow suicide. What you are doing is slowly devaluing the dollar in relation to the constant value of gold. The price of gold is just an illusion, "the ray screen" which hides the Gulch or valley. megatron (10/14/2000; 17:19:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 39024) nickel62 Your observation/facts about index manipulation and dividends are interesting but most people are overlooking 1 very important fact about the heard. They DO NOT KNOW what a dividend is! 99% do not have ANY idea whether a company in the Sock-Puppet 500 pays them out or not. The concept is invisible to all of them. As for the Fri. jerk off, your certainly on the money. You simply cannot have 'unhappy' people facing 'withdrawal' symptoms left alone all weekend to contemplate what to do. That can't occur. Thus the 'Friday effect'. Do a personal poll and ask what the dividends are for the companies they hold . Guess what? Mr Gresham (10/14/2000; 16:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39023) Auspec And I thought religion was supposed to have something to do with peace. Silly me.But then, I never went to high school football rallies either. My friends lived in the nearby towns I was supposed to hate.If patriotism is the "last refuge of a scoundrel", then what is re -- oh, never mind.All it takes is a few sick ones to get things going. The rest of us need to go a little out of our way and sit on them... USAGOLD (10/14/2000; 16:40:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 39022) Gold Myths & Realities: The Press' "Gold-Bug" Stereotype One of things we've accomplished here at USAGOLD is to shatter the press-driven stereotype of the gold owner being some fringe lunatic obsessed with guns and weaponry living in a bunker somewhere in the hinterlands waiting for civilization to self-destruct. USAGOLD is showing the world that, quite to the contrary, gold owners are some of the most articulate and concerned people you would find anywhere. Before USAGOLD,the rest of the world got the image of the "gold bug" the press painted for it. After USAGOLD, the world found out that the picture of the hunkered down gold advocate with a sack of gold in one hand, and an Uzi in the other, is not only absurd but presented for what are obviously ulterior, self-serving motives. For whatever reason, they fear people owning gold. They fear it because gold represents individual liberty, and individual liberty is junxtaposed to the concept of fealty to a government -- the social system they prefer, defend and advance on a daily basis. If the population at large would like to consider its gold owning physicians, dentists, attorneys, academics-thinkers-writers, architects, engineers, investment professionals (including stockbrokers) military officers, top corporate managers/sales professionals and small to medium business owners kooks -- as the press would have it -- then we are all in the hands of kooks for what amounts to our most pressing daily needs. I know this because I work with gold owners and have done so for nearly 30 years. The gold owner described condescendingly by the press is about as far from reality as one can get. As I say, USAGOLD shatters the stereotype. auspec (10/14/2000; 16:31:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 39021) Golden Truth/3rd Temple/ War Some clarification: The London Times reported: "Palestinian leaders warned Israel...that a plan to build a senagogue on The Temple Mount in Jerusalem could provoke a war in the Middle East. The warning came after the Chief Rabbinical Council announced that it was setting up a committee to 'realize our rights and sovereignty on the Temple Mount.'The decision appeared to be an attempt to avoid a confrontation with Muslims over what many regard as the most sensitive site in the Middle East. Jews believe that their temples stood on the site, which is inside Jerusalem's walled Old City, in biblical times. To Muslims it is known as al-Haram al-Sharif, the 'Noble Sanctuary', housing the Dome of the Rock and the al-Aqsa mosques. Ikrema Sabri, the Mufti of Jerusalem, said that building a synagogue on the hill would start a war and 'only God knows where it would lead'......"My comments: you are looking at the most contested holy land sites for the world's major religions, this issue cannot be solved by money or politics or the usual tactics. Thus Jerusalem is indeed "a stumbling stone" for world peace. Some biblical prophesies {2 Thesselonians 2:4; 1 Thesselonians 5:3} are interpreted that there will be a 3rd temple built and war will follow.Keep your eyes on Jerusalem to understand world events unfolding. Biblical reference to Israel; " I will bless those who bless you, and curse those that curse you." Leigh (10/14/2000; 14:51:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39020) justamereBear Weren't those Southerners with gold the ones who preserved their wealth after the Civil War? Remember Rhett Butler and his ill-gotten gold, that saved Tara from the tax man? Remember the stories about trunks full of Confederate currency that was completely worthless? Apparently it couldn't be traded in for anything.Interesting question! gidsek (10/14/2000; 14:32:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 39019) justamereBear "how did they cope?" try "Gone With the Wind" :)gidsek Clint H (10/14/2000; 14:09:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39018) Peter Asher msg#: 39011) Peter Asher >>>I'll write up the history tonight or tomorrow. Meanwhile, I'd like some opinions as to whether to post it or send it out to the forty Forum E-mail addresses I have.<<<Sir AsherPlease post what you write for the benefit of all. This subject will impact everyone in the coming decades. Thanks so much for all your efforts. Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 14:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39017) Trail Guide Is it possible the GOLD/F-N merger was nixed by a SA government official because they (SA.gov) understand your "Thoughts"? Cavan Man (10/14/2000; 13:31:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39016) Peter Asher Peter, please keep me posted. I too am interested in anything you care to expound upon. Many thanks 2U. justamereBear (10/14/2000; 13:26:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39015) To the US history buffs out there I posted a similiar request the other night, but it was late, so I suspect nobody noticed. Moreover it was at that time that the Yemeni thing literally blew up.Does any one know offhand, or know of a good source that is not a dry recital of politics, how the currency question played out (for the man on the street) when the confederate dollar became worthless, upon losing the war. How did all those people with confederate dollars cope? justamereBear (10/14/2000; 13:15:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39014) Midas Mulligan and Peter Asher Midas Mulligan 39009Since I think so little of any attempt to measure velocity of money, for the reasons stated, (ie how do you seperate velocity from other spending) I haven't paid any attention to anything I might have seen. In this case, I simply look at my surroundings and ignore all the theories. Sorry about that. I don't know of any offhand. I dimly recall it in Barrons. Was that not a government source? I'll bet an email to Barrons would get you the source.Peter Asher39010- Amen Bro AMEN.39011- I'll take whatever you have however you want to dispense it. Would be delighted if you added my address to your list= currie@mqcinc.comor I also have no problems, personally, with it on the forum. IMHO, AIDS is a major part of the equation, and the effects will be very apparent to the man on the street within a decade. Again IMO, I feel it won't be long before there is a good deal more gold per capita available than there is now. (2 to 3 decades or less) So I would expect it to have major financial ramifications, and therefore be a proper subject for the forum.I take it that you are somewhat of the opinion that I am, that we have a geometric progression here, with all the ramifications that entails. Into this cocktail stir a little energy crisis, a little financial crisis, a little environmental crisis, some society changing technology, and first thing you know you have a pretty potent brew.Any "war stories" or personal observations you have, particularly as to the man on the street, and how he reacted (singly or as a society), are of a great deal of interest to me.Many thanks for your time, both generally on the forum, and as it effects me personally. nickel62 (10/14/2000; 12:45:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 39013) a repost from GE at KITCO well worth reading . GE (Paper Gold, Physical Gold, Gold Demand & Reg. Howe) ID#420163:Copyright © 2000 GE/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedI have learned a lot from the studies made by Mr. Howe: 1- The total gold demand by the banks of the whole world can be inferred from their gold derivatives position. 2- The demand can be estimated using BIS data. Quoting from http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary12.html#anchor341719 At the end of 1999, the BIS put the total notional amount of gold derivatives at US$243 billion,up from $189 billion at the end of June. Converting the year-end notional amount to tonnes at the year-end gold price ( $290/oz. ) gives just over 26,000 tonnes. Using a $300 gold price gives around 25,200 tonnes. However, these 1999 figures are for major banks and dealers with their head offices in the G-10 countries only. On a more irregular basis, the BIS collects similar information for as close to the whole world as it can. Its last larger survey as of the end of June 1998 showed a total global figure for gold derivatives of $228 billion compared to a G-10 figure on the same date of $193 billion, indicating that at that time there was an additional $35 billion ( or 3629 tonnes @ $300/oz. ) in gold derivatives outside banks and dealers headquartered in G-10 countries. Accordingly, assuming a continuing difference of around the same magnitude, the total global gold derivatives market is on the order of 26,000 to 28,000 tonnes ... 3- BIS figures are similar to open interest data which is quite different from the volume data. See, http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary14.html#anchor27297 4- Within this framework, paradoxically, the lower the actual physical short position, the higher the NAKED paper short tonnage! Quoting Howe: What does this number mean? How should it be interpreted? Is it really as large as it looks? Analysts are unlikely to agree. I look at it this way. If the net short physical position is 10,000 tonnes, and if that position has been fully hedged ( far from certain ) , the total notional value of all that business should be around 20,000 tonnes. In that event, using 26,000 tonnes as the total notional amount for all gold derivatives, the net short gold derivatives position -- over and above the net short physical position -- is about 6000 tonnes, and the bullion banks have undertaken to deliver this amount in addition to what they must deliver to cover the net short physical position of 10,000 tonnes. Golden Truth (10/14/2000; 11:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 39012) To wolavka Excuse my ignorance. Waas ist 3rd temple? Thanks! Peter Asher (10/14/2000; 11:13:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39011) SteveH, J-bear Steve, thanks for all the data, will study after darkJ-bear, re AIDS. The story of the Airline Steward was published as his obituary. It appearred to be pretty well documented.Our client base was Fire Island Pines during the first year of the AIDS explosion and we saw firsthand how it got loss as an epidemic. Part of the problem was that many off them thought it was not a virus. I'll write up the history tonight or tommorow. Meanwhile, I'd like some opinions as to whether to post it or send it out to the forty Forum E-mail addresses I have.BTW I read awhile back, a claim that AIDS was found and spread in Africa as an attempt to depopulate the "Third World." Peter Asher (10/14/2000; 10:56:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39010) On A Major off-subject subject Got this just now with three pages of forwarding addresses going back to AprilTHE NEW SCHOOL PRAYERThis was written by a teen in Bagdad, Arizona.Now I sit me down in schoolWhere praying is against the ruleFor this great nation under GodFinds mention of Him very odd.If Scripture now the class recites,It violates the Bill of Rights.And anytime my head I bowBecomes a Federal matter now.Our hair can be purple, orange or green,That's no offense; it's a freedom scene.The law is specific, the law is precise.Prayers spoken aloud are a serious vice.For praying in a public hall Might offend someone with no faith at all.In silence alone we must meditate,God's name is prohibited by the state.We're allowed to cuss and dress like freaks,And pierce our noses, tongues and cheeks. They've outlawed guns, but FIRST the Bible. To quote the Good Book makes me liable.We can elect a pregnant Senior Queen, And the 'unwed daddy,' our Senior King.It's "inappropriate" to teach right from wrong,We're taught that such "judgments"do not belong.We can get our condoms and birth controls,Study witchcraft, vampires and totem poles.But the Ten Commandments are not allowed,No word of God must reach this crowd.It's scary here I must confess,When chaos reigns the school's a mess. Lord, this silent plea I make:Should I be shot;My soul please take!Amen Midas Mulligan (10/14/2000; 10:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39009) Justemerebear and Bonedaddy and all others... Justemerebear, Barron's used to publish a velocity indicator until 1995. Just thought there might be another indicator out there somewhere. Bonedaddy, I am "John Galt", just borrowing Midas Mulligan's knickname since I am writing in a gold forumn. Let me say that my motor which converts static energy, like oil and paper wealth, into kinetic energy, or gold is running well. All in the Gulch, or valley, are eagerly anticipating a return to normal life. Please check your premises! As an outsider, or "scab", you are not fighting the looters but supporting them at your own expense by your innocently misguided, marty-like, efforts to "fight them". I think you and the others will join us soon, based on the recent market activity. Ragnar, Francisco, Midas, all the rest of the strikers, and I give you our regards. Gold Trail Update (10/14/2000; 10:30:04MDT - Msg ID:39008) The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates. White Hills (10/14/2000; 10:17:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 39007) tg #msg 38998 Not to argue your point of view in this tragedy, I long ago picked my side. What has really impacted my thinking on the latest atrocities by both sides are the Video clips of the mob as they murdered one of the Israeli soldier. The look of glea and joy on their faces as they kicked and hit the body of the soldier made me sick as did the cheering of the crowd in obvious elation. I assume this was also on TV in Israel and I find it difficult to believe that the Jewish people after witnessing this would ever make peace under any condition other than the complete security of their people guaranteed by their own force of arms. You don't have to wait until you are bitten to decide it is a snake. White Hills nickel62 (10/14/2000; 10:13:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 39006) GE the sacred cow and origional earnings engineer that also happens to own CNBC Bubblevison. It is currently selling at 46 times their ability to manufacture what they call earnings. It has 9.8 Billion shares outstanding and yes that is billion and a market cap of over 500 Billion. The number Billion should be kept in context perhaps. I believe it was once described as the amount of dollar bills if you began counting when Jesus was born and counted twenty four hours a day seven days aweek you still would not be at a Billion. They have almost ten billion shares and $1.34 in "earnings" per share. That is a lot of hope. Fundamentals have been so irrelevant in this market for so long that it didn't pay to look at them because nobody cared but now it is very insightful since the answers are so comical. This "core" holding of could easily trade in the mid twenties and still be ridiculously overvalued. It will be the fitting final novena for the apotheosis of Jack Walsh by every one of his media talking heads. I wonder if they will still babble as well when their options are underwater? Knallgold (10/14/2000; 9:31:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 39005) Is the US military responsible for three airplane crashes? http://www.nybooks.com/nyrev/WWWsrch.cgi?form=all+articles&auth=scarry&title=&rauth=&rtitle=&rpub=&text=&sdate=all+dates&edate=all+dates&details=Search This is off topic,but I cannot accept it without protest,the media is very silent about it.Swissair SR111,TWA800 and EgyptAir990 crashed because of electromagnetic interference from military experiments?All flights were on the same route,along the northern east coast of US toward Newfoundland over a military zone.Thats the route when there are military exercises.All airplanes had electric problems as the source of the crashes.The Swiss ambassador in Canada who called the Swiss investigator to look into these possibility, fell "accidently" right in front of a train.The investigator died in a strange helicopter accident.Twice unknown persons broke into Swissair bureaus to catch documents.Elaine Scarry made did an in-depth investigation in this mysterious scandal. wolavka (10/14/2000; 8:16:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 39004) Sunday nite/ Monday Gold will explode up> Israel to move to rebuild 3rd temple.Bad problems ahead. nickel62 (10/14/2000; 7:49:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39003) You only have to look up the market cap losses of a few of the bull's sacred cows to know this game is over!!! Microsoft has around 7 billion shares outstanding I believe and has lost about half its value in the last six months that is $55/share times 7 Billion or $385 Billion.Intel Corp, the bluest of blue chips has lost at least $35 dollars per share on 6.7 Billion shares or a total since March of $245 Billion. Apple, Priceline.com, Lucent, Doubleclick and a host of other favorites of the recent past will quickly push the number well over 2 Trillion. That is a lot of paper burning in any society. I think the nose of the Titantic is about to disappear under the waves and the last few people on board better get into a gold life raft or they are going to be swimming with the cubes very soon. nickel62 (10/14/2000; 7:21:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 39002) If you think the gold bugs are depressed read this supposedly upbeat peice from Silicon Investor! Wall Street's Thrill Turns Into Defeat By Pierre Belec Oct 14 8:39am ETNEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors who've gotten used to Olympic-sized gains for the last five years are no longer feeling the thrill of victory. Instead, they're tasting the agony of defeat. But don't think they're willing to toss in the towel yet. What's happened is that after years of denial, investors are realizing that stock valuations and earnings do matter, after all. Stocks had risen so high that people began to believe there was no end to their expectations. But this year's third quarter has sobered up a lot of die-hard bulls. Some of the high-profile names such as Lucent Technologies, (LU.N) the world's largest telecommunications maker, and Motorola Inc., (MOT.N) the second-biggest cell phone maker and Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO.O), one of the largest Internet companies, have warned of lousy results. What's scary is that the Street should not expect the earnings story to suddenly turn brighter, experts say. ``This is an extremely unhealthy market environment but one in which investors will take a slap in the face, a punch in the gut and are still willing to come back for a kick in the pants,'' says John Hussman at Hussman Econometrics Advisors. Most companies have cited higher oil prices, Europe's weak single currency, the euro, and a slowing U.S. economy for their poor showings. But the concern is that these nasty problems will not go away anytime soon. YOU AIN'T SEEN ANYTHING YET? While the market has been rocked by earnings warnings, the betting is that the fourth quarter will bear the brunt of the damage from the euro and oil. Also, the lag of up to nine months between the time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and the impact on the economy, means that the bulk of the central bank's six credit tightenings, which first started in June 1999, have not fully filtered through the nation's economy. Experts say the earnings warnings and plain disappointments could last into next year. ``We aren't looking at short-term phenomena,'' said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors in Boston. ``All of the nasty factors popped up in the third quarter but what happened is that the companies, after being able to absorb a tight labor market and high wages for years while still generating high profits, are now finding out that they just can't do it any more.'' The slumping euro slammed Intel Corp. (INTC.O) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O) and other U.S. multinationals that do a lot of business in Europe. The currency has been battered since it was introduced in January 1999. The multinationals face two problems overseas. The euro's weakness against the dollar makes American goods more expensive, thereby cutting into sales. The companies' earnings are further slammed when they convert euros into dollars. Other U.S. firms that have been hurt include consumer products kings Gillette Co.(G.N), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL.N) and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG.N). Riley said the stocks of ``New Economy,'' or technology, companies are in their darkest period as investors realize that they've had extremely high expectations for their earnings. But the Dells, Apples and Nextels will bounce back because they still have a healthy growth trend, he said. ``We are going through a transitional period with companies returning to a more normal growth rate after the stock market has gone from $3 trillion in value to $15 trillion in 10 years,'' Riley said. ``People are acknowledging that companies that grew at 30 and 40 percent a year are not going to continue,'' he said. ''Unfortunately, investors had wrongly priced stocks on the assumption that the big gains would go on forever, such as the Yahoos of the world at 215 times earnings.'' Historically, corporate earnings have risen 7 percent a year and the slowing economies in the United States and Europe, will make a tough task of lifting profits even tougher. A FAIR PRICE, EVEN FOR SUPER GROWTH STOCKS During the bull market, people reckoned that pricing stocks based on the level of interest rates and inflation had gone out of style. Based on the new rules, companies that spent millions in grabbing bigger market shares would fetch stronger future earnings, which could justify higher P/Es for their stocks. The current market carnage, which slaughtered stocks that used to trade at three digit levels, proved once again that there is a fair value for everything, even the super growth stocks. For example, CMGI Inc. (CMGI.O), the huge Internet investing company, has seen its stock plunge in the past year to $22 from $163. It has left a nasty bruise on a lot of Internet groupies, even though CMGI is one of the sector's blue chips of the future. Yahoo! is at $65, down from $250. The P/E for the 500 companies that comprise the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is still nearly twice the norm at 28, which would suggest there is still room on the downside for the market to slide, especially after big companies have warned that there are storm clouds ahead. But the ``Old Economy'' companies may have a tougher time bouncing back than the New Economy firms because they don't have as much top-line growth to bail them out. ``What's causing more issues for the market is that the cracks that developed in the tech sector have now developed into major fault lines in the economically sensitive stocks,'' he said. ``Chemical companies are suffering in this high energy price environment and the retailers are getting eaten up by rising prices at a time when they aren't able to pass on higher prices to consumers,'' he said. So, the earnings of traditional companies will continue to be undermined by a slowing economy and rising costs, which in turn will cut off the supply of elixir that has fueled the stock market's spectacular growth for the last five years. Experts say the outlook is bleak for the euro -- a currency without a country. The unit is being jostled around by contradictory statements from euro-zone policy-makers about whether the currency is dangerously low or not. The worrying comments have rattled currency traders' confidence in the unit. Also weighing on the euro is the European Central Bank's focus on heading off inflation by raising interest rates at the risk of slowing the region's growth. Despite seven rate increases in the past year, the euro has stayed under water and the dollar has risen. The reason: currency traders have attached a premium to the dollar because the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy is aimed at both tempering inflation pressures while still promoting a reasonable level of economic growth. The surge in crude oil prices has also raised the risk that energy costs may be an economy-killer for the Europeans, who are paying for higher oil prices with a rising U.S. dollar. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average slumped 404.36 points to 10,192.18. The Nasdaq composite index was off 44.48 at 3,316.53 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 34.86 at 1,374.13. nickel62 (10/14/2000; 7:06:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 39001) ORO I don't know if you noticed that the last sentence of your excellent post was cut off. I was deeply involved trying to understand your great analysis as usual with your posts when I noticed that it had been truncated. nickel62 (10/14/2000; 6:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39000) "little squirt" and other descriptions of an 8% up move in the NASDAQ ! This is clearly a sign of complete desperation on the part of the market movers who are pulling the strings. I haven't learned much in twenty years in this game but I can tell that the move on friday didn't even convince the most sanguine of institutional bulls. These guys have watched their sacred cows be slaughtered over the last several months and this manipulation of the indexes while encouraging for them is nowhere near what they need to repair the damage. As I tried to point out yesterday on my posts about the actions of the New York Stock Exchange Specialists and the big Market Maker Desks for the NASDAQ this lifting is a part of the normal course of business. It is what they do to get rid of their inventory. It really just shows you a small glimpse at their price setting power. They have highly paid movie star analysists and million dollar a year salesman for this purpose to get a lift. Why else would they pay these guys so much to repeat the bannalities that only the institutional sheeple would listen to with any credulity. They popped it, period. The only interesting thing is that they thought they had to do that over a weekend!!!!!!! That is interesting because the normal operating behavior of the Trader on a major trading desk would be to go into a weekend with a neutral position. So maybe they have been told that they must pop it or face a deflating of the public willingness to hold which is critical to the continuation of the market levitation act. That is interesting, because in any other period with the potential for war in the Middle East there is no way they would go home over a weekend with a large inventory of stocks. The risks of something unexpected happening would be much too great. SO now we know that they are galvinized into action to go long stocks and take that risk inspite of the extremely uncertain political and world climate. THEY MUST HAVE BEEN SCARED TO DEATH! TO pop it on friday they had to be at the very brink of desperation. And unless my read of the institutional investors out there that I have been meeting with the last two weeks is very wrong, not one of them believes any more that a pop like that means much of anything. I think we finally have them terrified of the resurgance of the market. How fitting. ORO (10/14/2000; 6:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 38999) More thoughts on the Key assets and liabilities ORO (10/13/2000; 17:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38967)First the missing URLhttp://www.yardeni.com/public/flqual_c.pdf"An open question:"The Fed publishes a "key assets and liabilities" of the Federal Reserve System which encompases bank assets and liabilities other than Money Market funds. The assets less liabilities balance among these has been falling steadilly from some $70-80 billion to under $10 billion today, on a total of some $4.7 trillion in either assets or liabilities. This would seem to indicate some difficulty on the Fed's part in maintaining interest rates at these "high" levels. They will have to lower rates so that it would be possible for banks to play the carry margin/spread between the Fed rate and the market rate of interest. Otherwise, if these figures have any significance, insolvency of the system is just around the corner. The key asset less key liabilities figure has a loose relationship to the points at which the Fed decides to start lowering interest rates in order to support the banking system."The above URL has on pgs 7-9 charts of spreads between corporates and treasuries, that indicate heavy deflationary fear in the markets as they are at the highest spreads recorded, and at double their 1993-7 range. In terms of the originary interest concept, the relative discount of future goods vs. current goods, it has risen to double its prior rate and the expected long term price inflation is at 6.8%, down from 7.5% at the end of spring. This is still reflected in backwardations in a number of commodity futures markets, particularly in energy."If the Fed system is insolvent on its own, it does not mean that it is iliquid. Meaning that the margin of available funds for settlement of transactions is generally sufficient. However, such conditions of insolvency are an invitation for some to speculative attack by absorption of liquidity coupled by sale of assets of the type held against liability, thus burning the candle on both ends. The ultimate type of attack would be sale (short) of treasuries in US markets and deposit of funds at foreign banking institutions who then sell the dollars on the markets for Euro or for Yen while the buyers of these dollars use the funds to pay down corresponding dollar debt. This would be similar to the Koreans selling their treasury reserves to pay down dollar debts - particularly to the IMF, probably more effective through an intermediary that would score the profits. Interestingly, a condition of IMF "assistance" to its "clients" is that they do not sell their main source of reserves; US treasuries. I do not see any reason for anyone of the IMF "clients" abiding by their obligation, which forces them to pay the spread between the low treasury rate and the high rate on their dollar sovereign and local commercial debt, which is at 1% minimum, 4% "normal" and up to 10% (down from 20% in 1998's Russian debt fiasco) for sovereign debt, and 3% min, 7% normal, and up to 17% (and higher) for commercial debt. Back to the structure of the raid.The Euro market would be most attractive because of the smaller spread relative to the US. The Yen market would require a substantial Japanese dollar exposure and substantial non-Japanese Yen exposure. This is missing. The Euro zone has a much larger pool of outstanding dollar debts and includes more than sufficient volumes of Euro debtors holding dollar assets or dollar market income sources (exports - say oil, or commercial enterprises such as Daimeler, who's Chrystler division is a large cash flow producer). 1. ECB system (or private) Treasuries are sold into the market, lowering the value of bank assets and raising interest rates. 2. Dollars generated by the sale are taken from existing bank liabilities and deposited at a foreign bank, say BNP in NY. 3. BNP transfers dollars to London and forces the Fed to buy securities from the treasury purchasers' banks in order to provide cover to the liabilities, which being a large transaction would be an extraordinary drawdown on liquidity. Further liquidity would have to be pumped into the bond market to lower treasury rates back to acceptable levels. 4. In London the dollars are sold for Euro, thus lowering dollar/Euro and providing for excess liquidity in the Eurodollar market and lowering liquidity in the Euro market, also causing a drop in short term Eurodollar rates and a rise in Euro rates.5. Foreign dollar debtors refinance short term dollar debt (which is predominantly owned by Japanese and European banks) at the lower rates and pay down current debt, thus producing a tg (10/14/2000; 4:32:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 38998) journeyman, tedw your view on the palestinian/israeli crisis sums up my thoughts well.You will no doubt now be labelled as anti-semetic. During the whole debate, i've never heard anyone with an opposing view to yours be labelled anti-arab or threatened with having their rights to this forum revoked because of their racist, anti- arab views.I suppose a hater of jews is more evil then a hater of arabs.to tedw, your constant references to arabs as being snakes is irritating and misguided. Last time i asked you to keep your zionist propaganda to yourself, you asked me if i was an anti-semite. You weild that word around as if it was a crime against all humanity. No i am not anti-semetic, i do not hate jews, but i do have opinions that are critical of israeli actions and policy, and like journeyman, i do have criticisms of how the U.S.A is constantly caving in to the demands of Israel.I am sure some idiot out there is going to say, you are not a friend of Israel. My reply, only true friends will tell you the truth, others will tell you what you want to hear. SteveH (10/14/2000; 4:25:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 38997) Black Blade Have you notice that GATA only focuses on the commodity use of gold and then attacks the monetary control of gold through the commodity markets but without actually officially recognizes a sovereign powers right or need to control gold as a monetary asset? In other words, the issue isn't really one of collusion -- it is one of structure. The commodity markets are by definition free markets for commodity customers. When some of those customers are Nations, then this is what we get. One could say that LBMA is the currency-of-gold market and COMEX is the commodity- of-gold market. One uses the other to set the public perceived price of gold whilst the other trades hidden from view. The grand experiment of demonitization on the surface but with a base of monitization. Gold really hasn't ever been demonitized, just submerged where this duality has created a structural and moral hazard. GATA's quest becomes by default: "If you are going to manipulate gold then why not be honest about it? Stop calling gold a commodity when it is really money. Just give us gold market investors (stocks or physical) our money back so we can move on. We have been duped, we know it, and we are as mad as hell. Don't ever again play this shell game with us. We deserve better."This duality of gold trading has given some players extreme advantage, insider trading information that is morally reprehensible -- a dishonest system for dishonest players where the honest folks are chewed up before breakfast. This is the foul that GATA has called. Vietnam was the shining white lie, this gold market is the brightest shining lie yet. Knallgold (10/14/2000; 4:17:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 38996) SteveH,cycles ...especially at these Goldbottom which seems to have no end! SteveH (10/14/2000; 4:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 38995) Knallgold http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Dow-Gold-Ratio.gif I also note that your chart lines up interstingly enough with the above. Another view of the same thing. Aren't cycles wonderful? SteveH (10/14/2000; 3:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 38994) Peter http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Dow-Gold-Ratio.gif Also, note that in 1996, something happened which clearly opened Pandora's box on the gold v dow chart. Do we believe that to be the delinkage of gold from oil? The gold-carry trade? Yen-carry? And at the top of 1999, the Euro was born. That wasn't the case in 29' nor in 73'.The three spikes most certainly relate to gold anomolies as well -- the three gold defaults (two known, and one in the works). The current gold default is the mother of all defaults, like a massive wave building on itself until...poof...tsunami....Gold has been one of those monetary assets that paper needs to keep low as long as possible. Yet, it has the propensity to rise, to the chagrin of paper each time. It is the squelching of gold's monetary role that comes to bite paper in the arse each time and with more gusto. Perhaps this is the end of the grand experiment of paper and now it is time to admit that gold does play a major and direct role in inflation and in paper and that is why the Euro has been tied to gold or marked to gold. Only in this manner can one truly measure inflation and misuse of money. SteveH (10/14/2000; 3:50:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 38993) Peter http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Dow-Gold-Ratio.gif For ease of linking. SteveH (10/14/2000; 3:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 38992) Peter Here is a chart I saw referenced at Kitco.http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Dow-Gold-Ratio.gifThe range of 1 gram to 3 gram gold to bbl of oil chart shows another side to the above chart. It would appear that oil had something unusual occuring two out of the three times the Dow/Gold chart spiked. I am sure someone will make the argument that in 1929/30 that oil too had something going on with it then. In any case the fall off of the ratio in the above chart would (historically) be very fast in chart years. One thing is certain (by this chart), the DOW lowered and gold rose to make the dips on this chart.Truly, the proverbial s... is going to hit the fan, anytime. justamereBear (10/14/2000; 3:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 38991) OILMAN 38665 Re the starting year for AIDS. When did the first human become HIV positive.In theory I would agree that your log normal plotted to one, could find a starting date. The problem is that the level of infection is suspect.One of the rumors that I heard, which I believe to be, at least in part, inaccurate, but with a surprising amount of very interesting detail, concerned a named French Canadian Air Canada gay steward as point zero. At least the rumor reported that they had traced it back to the initial cases in North America. In his relatively short lifetime as a HIV/AIDS positive, he was reported to have had over 1,000 sexual partners.True or not, there is a comparatively well documented propensity for the male homosexual to have a far greater number of sexual partners than his hetrosexual counterpart. The HIV virus did spread relatively quickly through the gay community, and I believe that the beginning infection rates were somewhat higher than the current, OR overall rates. Such a circumstance would give a huge boost to your initial numbers, in a much shorter period of time, than would be evident in the average rate determinable today. Today as I said, it appears to me (not official) that the average HIV/Aids positive is infecting 2 point something others per annum. This rate appears to be slowing as it hits the hetrosexual population. This guy, or the gay community as a whole, was not infecting 2 point something people per annum. If he did have over 1,000 partners, he was infecting 100-150 people per year.Say 125 new partners per year ON AVERAGE. Now there is a real man. As I said I doubt the accuracy of the rumor, but it does serve to illustrate.Regarding the economic rate of return for the marginal West African oil play.It has been a very long time since I fooled around with either economic rental, or statistical analysis. (however, I do have to get back to the latter)Your math and logic look sound to me. However I do have 2 caveats. One for each direction.1) These assumptions work when you are at the go/no go stage of planning. That may be a "fair" price, but that is not how the market works. Once you have made the initial investment, the cost of lifting is somewhat marginal, and you are somewhat at the mercy of the market.2)The problem I have with most of these calculations is that they assume an infinite supply of, in this case oil. Rather, as we are getting our nose rubbed in today, the supply is very finite, and we are approaching the end of available supply. NONE of these calculations consider the cost for the future of humanity of NOT having a source of oil. What will be the cost to our childrens children for our prolifigate squandering of what has taken mother nature millions of years to save up, and which we have, in less than a century, squandered.Where is this cost in our formulae? Humanity exhibits a really extreme stupidity this way. We tend to not start bailing until our asses get wet, and sometimes that is to late.To some extent that is also the problem I have with the various alternatives such as sasol. We have simply found another account that mother nature has been saving for millions of years, and we are planning on squandering it as well, in what might be as little as a decade. Take for example gasohol. Alcohol, made from primarily grains, is used as a source of energy. In a world suffering from malnutrition and starvation, we propose to divert a major source of food toward energy, so that Joe sixpack can cheaply get into his gas guzzling SUV or Humvee, and take off for the wide open spaces, simply on a whim. What is the cost of diverting that grain from food production? How much value has a human life? How about thousands of lives? We are obscenely selfish.NO, I do not see the problem as being the direct cost of lifting a barrel of oil.I see the problem as one of conspicuous consumption of our resources, so that a small part of humanity, largely located in North America, can wantonly throw away humanities future. We have shot ourselves in the foot, environmentally, financially, in more ways than I care to count.I personally have been very lucky to live my life in a time and place that has been the very best ever experienced by mankind. EVER. In my 60's, I probably will live long enough to see the opening chapters of what may be the worst for mankind.May god bless us, each and every one. tedw (10/14/2000; 3:42:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 38990) Peace with a snake http://www.usagold.com The unfailing principle involved with the Mideast is you cant make peace with a snake.You decide who is the snake. Knallgold (10/14/2000; 3:20:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 38989) Kondratieff waves and Goldstandard http://de.photos.yahoo.com/bc/hugoldch?e&.intl=de&.flabel=fld1&.from=d&.pindex=1&start=1&.src=ph&.done=http%3a//de.photos.yahoo.com/bc/hugoldch%3fd%26.flabel=fld1%26.intl=de%26.src=ph I Posted this on GE:The following graph shows the longterm cycles ofUS-wholesale prices versus the ideal Kondratieffcycle.We had pretty good correlation until ~1935.Thecurve is then getting distorted to the inflationary side,in sync with the gradual abandonment of theGoldstandard.Unfortunately the graph is very dated (andgerman),but one can still see what might loom on thehorizon.Imagine the curve gets equally distorted on thedownside!I think the nineties are the 10year plateau ofslightly lower prices. justamereBear (10/14/2000; 2:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 38988) Hi-Hat TheStranger Canuck Midas Mulligan HI-HAT 38973HEAR!! HEAR!!THE STRANGER 38962Item 4: In other days, when markets did not always just go straight up, they were called fools rallies, because they sucked in more fools.CANUCK 38962Considering how crudely the intervention at about 10:30 on Thursday was done, I wondered if the government was announcing, in its non announcement way, that it was clearly intervening, or if somebody big was panicing. Surely, not. Even if, or especially if they were big, they would know how to act without tipping their hand publicly. (which might also be construed to be illegal)If Taiwan has publicly announced it will intervene to keep the markets up, and most people already know there is interevention in most US and other markets, my mind makes the leap to Britian, and Indonesia, and Malasia, and etc., etc., who all announced that they would not allow their currency to fall. It was the last stage of; 1)normal market operations 2) slight intervention, not noticeable or only to one or two pros, 3) more massive intervention noticeable to all professionals, 4) even more massive intervention, noticeable to the astute man on the street, 5) Announcement "we will intervene," 6) collapse.If the governments are announcing they will intervene, it may take a while, maybe even a year or so, for them to learn that governments are not larger than the market. Market forces will prevail.MIDAS MULLIGAN- velocity of moneyPerhaps if we look at what the velocity of money IS, the answer to yuor question will be a bit clearer.Velocity of money refers to the speed with which the average bear gets rid of his money in return for goods and services. (not strictly accurate, but close enough)In inflationary times, (and also when fiat is becoming worthless) people want to get rid of their paper, (which is losing value) for real goods, such as groceries, which maintain their value. The higher the inflation the quicker people want to get rid of their paper for groceries. In Germany at the height of the inflation, people got paid a noon every day so the could rush out an spend it, because by tonight it would not buy a loaf of bread.How do you measure the urge to get rid of paper, as opposed to the urge, or simple need, to spend or buy regular groceries?There is some anecdotal evidence, that is claimed by some to portray this, but personally, I would answer NO to your question. Black Blade (10/14/2000; 0:33:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 38987) RE: Peter Asher Peter Asher: It might even be possible that the bought into NG contracts based the number of customers who lock in at a certain price. It has the same effect and creates a fixed income stream that they can count on (the spread). Normally I would question how that would prevent customers from going to electric, but in the northwest they have a lot of hydro-electric power as opposed to NG-generated power. 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