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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/13/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) SHIFTY (03/13/01; 23:47:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 49987) Randy (@ The Tower) mail call$hifty Randy (@ The Tower) (03/13/01; 23:27:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 49986) SHIFTY's outreach sitemaster@usagold.comYep...that will jingle our cyber bells here at The Tower. SHIFTY (03/13/01; 23:17:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 49985) Randy (@ The Tower) Is your e-mail address the address for the sites webmaster?$hifty SHIFTY (03/13/01; 23:09:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49984) Canuck Searching for Farfel Canuck : I never did find Sir Farfel. I wish he would at least let us know he is still breathing.$hifty ORO (03/13/01; 22:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 49983) WW Oracle - Fannie and Freddie Buffet's withdrawal from ownership in the GSE debt security agglomerators is necessarily an indication of a changed view as to the value of the future income stream from them as opposed to those he expects to be available from alternate investments. His new picks are in decidedly "old economy" companies in the businesses of brick making and paint among others. He has hung on to his "fully valued" razor and personal care products company, his soft drink marketing company, his media assets. He has not changed his holdings in shoes, jewelry, nor in silver bullion. He has liquidated some real-estate holdings through the sale of properties from the undervalued REIT he bought a year before for the purpose of selling off the portfolio.Before this, he had bought General Re, which made Berkshire change on two levels. First, on the operating side, it made it a much more focused company in that insurance became the bulk of the company's operating assets. Second, on the investment side, the portfolio shifted weight from equities to bonds, a shift also reflected in the purchase of his stake in the GSEs. His choice was very prescient as indeed equities in his portfolio barely budged and some were hurt through most of the period, while his bonds moved up well. Since the bond income is being used to buy other equities, and he unloaded his GSE stakes, his current action is to unload fixed income streams (bonds) and exchange them with variable income streams (equities) that grow with the nominal economy (i.e. with both actual growth and monetary inflation – which is growth in general prices).While his prior allocation was an embodiment of an expectation of disinflation or even deflation, his current choice is indicating he expects the opposite today.The GSEs function is to hold bundles of long term fixed income streams (mortgages) while borrowing short term funds in order to hold them. The fixed income streams are then sold as aggregated securities into the debt markets. Earnings are the result of two factors; the difference (spread) between the income streams coming in (mortgage rates) and those coming out (money market rates), and from capital gains from the time mortgage loans are bought from originators and sold into markets as aggregate securities (last time I checked, some 2 years ago, this was about 3 months).Thus GSE earnings rise when there is an increase in the spread between mortgage rates and money fund rates (tied to the Fed rates, but almost always on the bottom end, meaning that the Fed normally overbids the markets – pressuring money market rates down) and when there is a drop in mortgage interest rates (which are a sum of base long term rates and default premiums). The conditions of low spread and the uptrend in mortgage rates that are indicative of low GSE earnings, are those that prevail when deflationary threats are present in the financial system and liquidity is low (high money market rates, high default premiums). These same conditions tend to unnerve the Fed, and brings it to start lowering its rates. The Greenspan Fed is very focused on the base nominal long term interest rates, which it wants to see as low as possible. Thus when the spread of Fed funds to mortgage rates is low and mortgage rates have trended higher over a period, is a good time to buy GSEs, which are, in essence, a bet that the uptrend in mortgage interest rates will reverse (something one would expect after a prolonged uptrend that has lost momentum) and that the Fed will ease.Since Buffet has "entered the building" at a time of low spreads and uptrending mortgage rates, one would expect him to "leave the building" when spreads have widened and are expected by the markets to widen further, and when a downtrend in mortgage rates has lost momentum. He has done both right on time. In the context of the rest of his actions, one would say that he is expecting an inflationary (both monetary and price inflation) environment on the investment horizon.You are fearful of Buffet's exit indicating a crack of the GSEs, I gather. This would not be justified if the Fed were aggressive enough in printing money to prevent dislocations in the money markets. The fed has been slow to react to the thin liquidity margin, but it has and has signaled widely that it will continue. In the context of the war of the Fed/IMF dollar with the euro of the ECB (favored by the BIS), there is an aspect of relative excess or lack of liquidity driving exchange rates and affecting price inflation expectations of holders of dollars and prospective (and current) holders of euro. The euro area has the substantial drawback of high tax rates and regulatory burdens that make investment returns there less attractive than they are elsewhere, particularly in the emerging markets, but also in the US. The euro also lacks the dollar's massive global debt base, and attempts to create one through previously low euro interest rates seem to have failed. The EU bureacracy (in member states as well as the common institutions) can only progress to have their euro displace the dollar if they are willing to forego power by releasing their strangling hold on economic decision making. Considering that EU governments were motivated predominantly by their desire to prevent competition among themselves in forming the EU, that will likely hinder investment growth in Europe, and prevent the euro from ever having the lion's share of the stock of global reserves. If they are trying to use gold to back the euro instead of trade, they will fail most miserably because gold will displace both the dollar and the euro if let loose. The arrogance of the ECB and the Fed confidence in Keynes' prediction of continued use of paper money in hyperinflation notwithstanding (he was wrong in that financial use of hyperinflating currency ended up in movement to gold and non-inflating currency). Today, the markets can respond much more rapidly to bad currency, and do so while denying governments their revenues and information about activities. It is only a matter of motive to do so that stands between us all and a trek on the net to find out what is available, how easy (and cheap) it is to use, and to do so while keeping our liquid funds away from losing purchasing power. High taxes and price inflation can bring us back to the wide scale black and gray markets of the 70s.By the way, the large dollar debt base makes the dollar less sensitive to monetary inflation than the euro, so long as it is maintained at a default rate that does not destroy the financial system. Supplying just that much liquidity seems to be the Fed's current intent. megatron (03/13/01; 22:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 49982) Wanna bet? Anyone want to bet Kanada dumped about 20,000 or so ounces this week? We won't know for a while but I'd be willing to bet a cappucino in Vancouver. Randy (@ The Tower) (03/13/01; 22:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 49981) Assistance (?) to Belgian... Your question: "Is it correct that LBMA already existed for 80 years, and that its existance was made public, only in 1997 ?"80 years, you say? Given that time frame, it is reasonable that perhaps you are thinking instead of the specific institution of the London gold fix...the five fixing participants comprising the London Gold Market Ltd.With the Bank of England as nursemaid, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) as we know it was born on the 14th of December, 1987.The public significance of the 1997 year you cite marks the additional transparancy the LBMA offered by releasing its monthly clearing statistics...the massive volume of which put even long-time sector experts/participants into a spin, at nearly 1,000 tonnes cleared in trade activity each day.I hope this helps. Canuck (03/13/01; 21:59:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 49980) @auspec What's your thoughts good man; are we drifting away here or are we pausing? (re:POG) Canuck (03/13/01; 21:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 49979) @ Shifty Did you ever hear about the whereabouts of Farfel? silvercollector (03/13/01; 21:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 49978) Joke I hope everyone saw the article or the post recently about the brokerage hiring the new accountant. Apparently the interviewer asked each candidate, "what does 2 plus 2 equal?"The successful 'interviewee' answered "what ever you want it to be." Canuck (03/13/01; 21:44:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 49977) Thanks Canuck Gold and justamerebear I called my mother this am and she receives 3 pensions. My father's CPP pension (he passed away in 1981), her CPP pension and her 'Old Age' pension. I was not bold enough to ask her how much but given her lifestyle I'm sure she does okay. Her (second) husband also receives 3 pensions, the retirement pension from government, CPP and 'Old Age'. There is a serious amount of money here. If fact enough that they still (both) salt away money. Two points and a question; how in God's green earth are governments going to pay for this. If the median age of society is increasing, that is to say getting older (does anyone have the graphs depicting population age), this is going to get tougher and tougher.No wonder governments want to 'show' no inflation. I know this topic has been batted around, sorry to re-post but does anyone have any numbers.TIA Canuck (03/13/01; 21:12:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 49976) BOE Auction Good luck tomorrow gentlemen. Let's get this bullsh*t auction over with and get back to the supply shortages, the spiking lease rate, the short selling, the crashing markets, the international financial spectacle, the rising energy costs, the political squabbling, and the middle-east uprest.If it wasn't for the above minor, inconveniences gold would be falling for cryin' out loud. Trail Guide (03/13/01; 20:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 49975) Comment Hello Mr. Gresham,I don't think I could ever measure up to that Loan Ranger fella. Bigger than life he was,,, bigger than life. (smile)I have access to most all this forum's posts. Either I save then, my system does it or a helper handles it. Just recently I scanned quickly over the last number of days. Boy, what a wonderful diverse group of opinions and insights. Wish I could discuss all of it with everyone. Yet, for now, I must skip past most of the direct questions and deep discussions, adding something when I can. As anyone knows that have conversed with me on this venue, when time is available I talk as much as possible. (smile)Thanks for the kind expression, sir G! Truly, if my comments suggest to you that this trail is worth following or even just studying, then I know others are doing the same. Someone once told me that following in the footsteps is easy, understanding why they walk this path and conveying that same is hard. Not everyone can or will grasp such a long term logic concerning wealth. The benefits of keeping wealth for a lifetime only come into clear focus when years of addiction to leverage have worn a man's riches to dust. While we lament our lost bets and covet the speculative gains of others, this drug of leverage calls us to play once again. In the end, few are the savers that have partaken the leverage bet and finish their days owning the real metal of the ages. Perhaps some giants know this all too well?As shifty said today, "I just can't see it", concerning my reasoning of mines and why they will not come to fullness we expect. No,,,, no sir, you cannot see it. You see, it isn't just the mathematics or the legality or the morality of it all. Not event the politics of market games that we battle. The enemy is from within. Only the strong can stand firm with what the western masses perceive as a bet of little return, real gold. Yes, we can see buying "near gold", "leveraged gold", "gold in the ground", "poor man's gold" and "almost gold". Little by little, we give it back as the rules change and time moves on. With each defeat comes hope. Hope that someday when that guy who's been buying real gold, has his day in the sun,,, then too will my leverage bet finally make my wealth as whole as his wealth.My friends, history and time never stand still and savings built upon the dreams of men are often lost with these constant shifting sands. The sands of human events. -----Gold, the wealth of ages, must not only overcome the evolution of time, it must also overcome our own inability to see what cannot be seen.----------- It does this oh so well.Thank you all for writing and thinking here and thank you Michael, very much for your efforts.TrailGuide Christian (03/13/01; 20:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49974) When will go up? Bank deposits are built up from bank credits as the bank grants its customers loans. Credit creation gold priced at 10 times commodity gold is what makes possible the present ability of the member banks who make up the FED to create money and channel it where it serves their interests. The Federal Reserve is a private syndicate that gives our government the power to create unlimited debt. These so called bankers merchandise and promote companies to move dollars form the public to their pockets. Same is happening with gold stocks and the physical gold price. We have to face it, there is a lower controlled gold price for the working people and a much higher price for a class of people who live not by tilling the soil nor produce a needed product, but by repricing commodity gold into credit creation gold. Congress and the Supreme Court co-onspirates with the privat syndicate called the FED. The lesson the bankers and government have learned from the past is that they can get away with quite a bit of loot before the system collapses. Monetary diseases are hard to diagnose and hidden from public understanding. You can get tons of loot and never be identified as the thiefs. Gold for the thiefs and debt to the working ordinary people is where we are at. tg (03/13/01; 20:07:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 49973) from longwaves site The US economy largely parallels Japan's ten years agoby Bob Bronson13 March 2001 23:41 UTC Thread Index> > > http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=526387A good article about the US recession likely to be worse than the all-important current institutional consensus expectations for it, but theymiss the biggest macro distinction with their otherwise well-reasonedparallel comparison with Japan.Following Japan's economic peak 10 years ago, the US economy ledthe rest of global economy with a ten-year economic expansion. Butclearly the reverse will not be true, as no one reasonably expects thecurrent peaking US economy will be supported by a Japanese businessexpansion leading the rest of the global economy over the next ten years.To the contrary, we have been expecting that contagion will cause aglobal business cycle contraction to develop, and it is, with the worstyet to come.The Economist does not point out the parallels of 70 years ago whenJapan led the US by a similar 10 years, and for similar reasons. Of coursethis time is different, but will the differences create a significantlydifferentdeflationary bottom line - that IS the question.Bob Bronson SteveH (03/13/01; 19:22:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 49972) When First, Topaz noted. Gandalf, agreed.When will gold rise? When the markets continue down and bonds no longer hold the protection they do now. When would that be? IMO, when GS lowers the interest rates so low that there is no longer a contango (is that the right term) to interest the gold carry trade. As inflation (cpi) rises and GS lowers the short term rates the differential to a lowering bond market and gold lease rates spells physical gold will become the dominant safe haven, unless the Euro and Euro investments are made to syphon off the US dollar account funds (money market and bonds) instead of to US Equities or gold. Some savvy investors as a matter of statistical certainty will find gold a safe hedge where bonds no longer fill that role. The Euro may be the next safe haven of necessity. In other words, when US equities no longer hold that role, which the talking heads sure are working hard to convince us otherwise (a very distasteful act)and the US T-bills and other 'sure-bet' investments of the past no longer hold their allure, and emerging markets won't do, that only leaves, the Euro markets suffering from virulent livestock and gold-based investements. At the point where sufficient funds trickle into gold, we shall see a never-to-return rise in the price of gold and it will likely be when we least expect it. Most of these trends are already in place, but the underlying trend is still hidden like the submarine whose luck ran out and into the Japanese ship. It is down there just waiting for the factors to line up for the quick surfacing. What are the chances of hitting another ship in the open ocean from underneath? Good enough to happen, and while this goes on in the news, we wait for the the next BOE auction, which could be a catalyst, if it is highly oversubscribed and the price is 5 or 10 dollars higher than the trend of past auctions. But, if things are like they were, this will be yet another non event. Somehow (and to hedge -- just like (it seems) everyone else), I will state that it does seem different this time.We wait....and nothing is as before (where have we heard that?) R Powell (03/13/01; 18:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 49971) Shifty Agree that BOA's auction will not provide enough gold to satisfy demand when lease rates are high (higher than normal). Perhaps one buyer will take all in a much oversubscribed event. I believe it's 25 tons and the last with 25, with 6 auctions of 20 tons next year. Thanks for the Batra article and site address. I have read/studied his book and believe he has the basics right. His timing is not correct but I don't think anyone could time this exactly without great luck. Expanded consumer debt may have prolonged things? Thanks again Rich PS: one ping only, please, Mr. Presilly! SHIFTY (03/13/01; 18:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49970) Big Shorts Just a thought to put things into perspective. Tonight's gold auction if I am not mistaken is for 20 tons of gold. We hear estimates of a huge short position out there of 10,000. tons or more. It would take 500 auctions the size of tonight's to cover 10,000. tons. You could have an auction this size every day for one year and still not have sold enough gold to cover the short position out there. Imagine if the short position is more like 17,000 tons. Got Gold?$hifty Goal Line (03/13/01; 18:19:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 49969) Belgian - When Will They All Jump Into Gold #49961 I agree with SLATT - a fine post. One of your points highlighted a perception problem which many of us encounter. I know it is a problem with me.You wrote "Therefore, the possibility, that, the ATL for POG (252$), has been set, is very high." I too, feel that $252 is a large relative, number and yet I know that it is not so.According to official government statistics on historic inflation, this translates to approximately $56 in 1972, the year after gold was set free. The actual price of gold in 1972 in their dollars was $58. You can see that our current low of $252 while seeming high actually is similar to this price in 1972.The worst part of all this is that the official figures on inflation have been understated almost every year to varying degrees. This has been amply demonstrated in this forum and so our $252 price is actually lower in real 1972 dollars.When we extrapolate out to a price of say $1000 it seems all too fanciful to be believed. And yet using official statistics, this would translate into a price of approx $400 in 1980 dollars. We all know where gold reached that year and the supply problems were not even close to where they are now.I was a young man in 1972 so I've watched these changes gradually come about. I should know better, but I still see $252 as a relatively large number compared to $58. It's all a matter of perception and since we see things with numbers in absolutes, the fiat boys have a built in advantage when they want to fiddle with a currency. Seeker of the Grail (03/13/01; 18:01:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 49968) Land Down Under I see the Aussie's are pulling their cloak and daggar routine again. Is this due to CB connections in the land down under? Mabey they all fly there for martinis after the N.Y. closeSOTG Hill Billy Mitchell (03/13/01; 16:40:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 49967) Cavan Man and Working-Kirk Could the two of you send me an email so that I can contact you, please?address = pappydog2@Hotmail.comThanksHBM R Powell (03/13/01; 16:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 49966) Orville Thanks. Took me three months to figure out how to dial on a touch-tone phone. Rich Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/13/01; 15:34:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49965) Belgian,.....msg. #49961 What a great post! (I read your post after just having read 40 pages of "ANOTHER"s posts. The similarities in style, usage and content (minus oil of course) prompts this question:Were you at any time, ANOTHER? Old Yeller (03/13/01; 15:14:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 49964) Latest John Hathaway commentary. http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorm0083.shtml In case anyone out there hasn't read it,here the latest on Mr. Hathaway's appraisal of the current labyrinrth. Thanks to Winston,at kitco,for the link. Orville Goldenbacher (03/13/01; 14:53:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 49963) R Powell http://www.cbs.marketwatch.com let's try this.... R Powell (03/13/01; 14:36:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 49962) Sorry www.cbs.marketwatch.com 2nd try Belgian (03/13/01; 14:34:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 49961) When will they all jump into GOLD ? There is no doubt about the ATH (all time high) being in for the stock market(s). Therefore, the possibility, that, the ATL for POG (252$), has been set, is very high. Nice combination !What we are seeing now is : All stock market money is trying to get out of the killing, 20 year old, parabole. They are "des-pe-ra-te-ly" using every possible tric , to escape from the unfolding drama ! It is the stock-market-behavior,explained. Good old "TINA" is mumifying ! This, to understand, why/how/when, the intelligent money, will start investing, agressively, into gold. The gold-accumulation is slowly broadening now. Intelligent money, knows, that the parabolic paper money explosion is searching for its antipode...a dramatic under-valuation in the future ! This rather long proces is still to be compared with the Titanic sinking proces, in all its different phases. The OBV (on the balance volume) in Gold stocks is indicating a letting down of the lifeboats. The massive jump into gold will take place as soon as the Titanic, plunges for the depts. IMO, we are not yet so far.The POG-spike (above 350$) will start with the switch from Denial into firm, overall Acceptance, bordering Panic.Panic will break out when the bulk of paper, realises that nothing can be managed anymore to win time for orderly retreat. When the full extend of total losses becomes clear.Dow, must break 10.000 + US$-index must dive under 100,to install full drama-acceptance. It is sometimes, very remarquable how POG is reacting (antipoding) against Dow-moves.Today is good example. This peculiar inter-relation is becoming more frequent. Superpone intra-day tick charts of both.In a Bank-Publication from 1998, I found that the UK-goldreserves, were booked at 298$/ounce (?). No answer, when I tried to verify this at the BOE. Sealed lips ! Imagine, they are selling, half, the peole's gold-reserves at a loss.!? BTW, note that most European CB-gold is booked above 250$. (old myth of 35$)It is very frustrating to realise that we don't have the right to know what is happening with our gold. Democracy...hummhummm ? Therefore, I consider GATA's work, as an honest fight for that so called democracy.What happens to Japan, if the US-growth will go negative ?World - Trade is doomed to stumble and fall. Europ is condemned to turn around its own axe at much reduced speed.Drastic measures are in the pipeline. Gold adores uncertainty with a dramatic undertone. And the big unknown : China as a WTA member ? How will it impact on Japan and the Yen ?Stockmarket bottom, probably in september 2001. Nasdaq topped (5.132) on 10th march 2000. Two simple down cycles of nine months each give dec.2000 and sept.2001 consecutive bottoms. Check this clear-cut-highly-visible, 9 month cycle in Dow (bottom to bottom). These bottoms might guide the POG-moves ?Is it correct that LBMA already existed for 80 years, and that its existance was made public, only in 1997 ?US 8.000 tons goldreserve (at 265$/ounce) = 1% of total US$ volume (world float)?(Saville). Therefore 32.000 tons CB-gold = 4% of total US$. and 140.000 tons aboveground gold = 17,5% of total US$.With a POG at 600$/ounce...aboveground gold is counterbalancing the total amount of dollars for 40%.How much % of total dollar-volume do we need to see 600$/ounce appearing ? Compare this figure with the trillions already destructed in Nas-titanic "62%" dive (next fib-number = 89%). It is only in the final stages of paper-profit evaporization that a very small amount of recuperated paper is used to pile into the golden pool. The probable accumulation of today is done with very tiny amounts of profit paper from the stock market. The bulk goes first into the US-treasury parking place, with declining rates and waiting to be devaluated in the final stages of unproductive-debt-money destruction.The Gold Bull will not rest after the bubble has bursted.To re-install, new, growth, inflationarry measures will be on the order of the day. This is another reason why the actual gold-lows, will never be seen again. Goldaccumulators must realise this too. An unique chance to position ourselves with massive physical assurance. This idea will filter trough when time has come. R Powell (03/13/01; 14:31:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 49960) Yellow Jacket/ unhedged mining companies www.cbsmarketwatch.com Concerning which companies are hedged and which are not, if you type in the company stock symbol in the upper left box of cbsmarketwatch and punch the go button, you'll get a current price chart and (scroll down) recent press releases. With mining companies, many of these articles refer specifically to hedging policies. I believe HM and HGMCY are not hedged. HGMCY recently calmed a bank's fears for HGMCY's loan repayment ability by buying puts (options to sell) rather than selling forward. This is like buying homeowners' ins. to protect the lender of a home mortgage. Hedging and selling forward are not always the same and care must be given when evaluating different companies. R Powell (03/13/01; 13:56:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 49959) XAU index and BOE auction The AUX (gold mining stocks index) is down at the moment by 1.81 to 53.32. Last year a copper mining co., Phelps Dodge was included in this index even though the bulk of their production is copper with some silver as a by-product. Phelps Dodge was downgraded this morning and its stock price immediately fell. Whether or not this took the whole sector down is debatable but it certainly didn't help. If the last BOE auction was oversubscribed by 4.8 times and if higher lease rates do indicate short supply and/or a lack of physical for lending, then it would appear logical that tomorrow's auction will again receive many more bids than 25 tons can handle. Will a big turnout with many disappointed buyers get the attention it deserves and, if so, will the market react?? Never a dull moment. Rich aunuggets (03/13/01; 12:20:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 49958) New Kitco Home Page ??!! http://www.kitco.com/ "EVERYTHING" at a glance. VERY COOL ! Randy (@ The Tower) (03/13/01; 12:17:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 49957) Fed funds target rate is A-OK, yet the Fed is throwing weight in the open market The Federal Reserve announced this morning that it would be taking bids from dealers for the Fed's outright purchase of Treasury securities, thereby effectively adding permanent reserves to the banking system. The size of the liquidity-adding operation has not yet been announced. Mr Gresham (03/13/01; 12:11:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 49956) Trail Guide I'm thinking of those closing scenes from the Lone Ranger TV show. There's always one of the townspeople, who looks up from his rescued kid or wife, and finds LR & Tonto disappearing in a cloud of dust. And they always said at the end, "You know, I never got to thank that Masked Man."However this all turns out, I hope you'll always stay in touch with MK, so we can always get a word or two to you. So, for now, thank you. Gandalf the White (03/13/01; 12:10:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 49955) oops PAPER Gold -- rather than real Physical Gold that is !<;-) Gandalf the White (03/13/01; 12:09:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 49954) Here is the Question of the Day ! Does it seem as if the only one BUYING the DOW and DUCK is the PPT, and the only one selling Physical and the XAU are the BB's ?<;-) SHIFTY (03/13/01; 11:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49953) Trail Guide Trail Guide: Why would the gold mines sell their physical metal at COMEX paper price if physical gold is bringing a much higher price. I am sure MK will not be selling physical at the lower COMEX paper price.I could see it if they were filling an order for a prior commitment but beyond that I just don't see it. Take Harmony for an example. They mine their gold , they refine there own gold, and sell there own brand . Why would they sell it for less than MK ?? I am not a collage guy. Im just a working stiff waiting for the price of gold to move up to where it should be in the real world. You have probably forgotten more than I will ever know, and I thank you for your thoughts but I just cant see why a miner would sell his product at a lower price. If I had mine production to sell and a bunch of crooks in high priced silk suits wanted to pay me for my physical gold at a lower price than the physical market was paying I would tell them where they could go. What is it that I just don't see?$hifty Gene (03/13/01; 11:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 49952) Silver--Trail Guide Trail Guide: I really would like to know your reasons for saying that silver will just fall away. I must admit I do not know much about the ins & outs of this market, especially why prices are so low when demand is supposedly much higher than supply. I look forward to your further comments.Regards, Gene justamereBear (03/13/01; 10:46:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 49951) Canadian Pensions There are actually 3 parts to Canadian government pensions The old age security pension, available to all regardless, which comes to just over $400. per month, The guarenteed income suppliment, which depends on your last years income. and tops up your income to a predetermined level of about 8 to 10,000 per annum, and the Canada (or Quebec) pension plan which pays according to the contributions made in your lifetime.For example if you were a housewife or welfare recipient all your life. and had earned nothing, you would get the Old Age Security and the guarenteed income suppliment but no CPP, having made no contributions. Someone who had worked a little during their lifetime might get all 3, and those with a big CPP contribution would get 1 and 3 but not 2. The whole result is guarenteed poverty.j'Bear SHIFTY (03/13/01; 10:07:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49950) VanRip / Lease Rates/All VanRip : It has been like a desert here UNTIL TODAY ! Lots O Rain today. Lightening and everything. I had fire jump out of my air-conditioner. I was glad I had shut down my computer. Sounds like round two is on the way. The Air conditioner seems to be fine. All : Well I am surprised to see the lease rates where they are today. When I posted earlier that the fix was in the lease rates were showing less than 1% for one month and now it seems they are back to where they were yesterday. Was this another Kitco glitch? or was my sleep walking impairing my perception?$hifty Canuck Gold (03/13/01; 09:38:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49949) Canuck (3/13/2001; 5:32:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 49940) Canuck, your sister is correct. A CPP pension is based on your CPP contributions and the Old Age pension is, I believe, a fixed amount paid to all seniors.CG USAGOLD (03/13/01; 09:13:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 49948) Today's Commentary: Has the Little Old Lady of Threadneedle Street Stolen the Punch Bowl? http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Thought I'd post my Comments here today for all. Those new to USAGOLD can go to the link above to register for a trial subscription to the Commentary & Review page -- You will also receive an introductory packet on gold ownerhip if you have an interest. . . . .3/13/01www.usagold.com. . . . .Gold was lower in advance of tomorrow's Bank of England auction. Lease rates stayed high at 4.4% (5.78% yesterday) despite the upcoming auction -- a warning to traders that this lull could be the calm before the storm. If tomorrow's auction is well-bid, we could see gold resume its uptrend with the shorts scrambling to cover.Comex commitment of traders numbers are quoted frequently as an indicator of speculator positions, but volume there pales in comparison to the over-the-counter options markets. We noted with interest upon receipt of our London Bullion Market Association numbers yesterday morning, a strong upsurge in February's daily gold turnover indicating the short position could be substantially larger than previously realized. A strong showing at the Bank of England auction might have more of an effect on foggy old London-town than some are anticipating. It seems the whirling vortex in the gold market is centered in around London, the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street and the fabled LBMA. Tomorrow could be a big day for all concerned. We should keep in mind that this auction occurs at a time when the gold market has shown signs of backwardation, a state of affairs usually attributed to strong spot demand. And what is the Bank of England auction if not a "spot sale" of yellow metal? That backwardation has not occurred in a vacuum but the direct result of gold buyers' current needs. There is little doubt that private investors worldwide, who have consistently bought this market, have been joined in recent weeks by institutional speculators. The private investor is buying primarily out of concern that his purchasing power is being whittled away by eroding currencies. The institutional speculator has a more urgent concern -- dwindling liquidity -- a situation that exists thanks to the BOE's withdrawal from the "gold window" and the continental central banks decision to call in their gold loans and reduce further commitments. In other words, someone's taken away the punchbowl. And that could be a source of panic with those responsible for repaying some ultra-large gold loans. Not to put too fine a point on it, let me simply say that we may have some disappointed shoppers tomorrow morning if those needs cannot be met at BOE's bi-monthly red-tag sale. And when they go storming out of the store, you can be sure they'll show up in the open market looking to fill their needs. It could make for an interesting day.As it is, one London analyst warned this morning that with the market "as substantially short as it is, and as nervous and jittery as it has been over the past few days, a good auction result could trigger more buying and a proper test of $275. And any breach of $275 could trigger (automatic) stops, which could push things higher.That 's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. More later if warranted. I thought about writing about the stock market today, but we've covered this thoroughly and warned of the dangers there long before any of this happened. Those who followed our advice and balanced their equities portfolios with a 10%-30% gold diversification are ahead of the game and well-positioned for the future. They've already preserved a large chunk of their wealth. Those who haven't yet made the move to gold should simply consider the fact that the current gold price is so ridiculously low versus the inflated value of stocks even now, that a move to gold remains the best course of action. With gold, you can still preserve your wealth. In stocks . . . . . well, we'll let you decide on that one. MK Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/13/01; 09:11:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 49947) POG $268 - $269 Is there any significance to this price? The kitco chart is holding this range. Any idea at what POG will the chains be broken? RossL (03/13/01; 08:48:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 49946) Crudele http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/715 Crudele seems to condone the rigging of the markets. He doesn't acknowledge the inevitable consequences of those actions. His conclusion:"Forget about waiting for interest rate cuts. By the time Greenspan's solution starts working, we'll all be broke."Little does John know... "we" are already broke. Chris Powell (3/13/2001; 8:12:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 49945) Watch Peter Fisher rig the market again http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/715 John Crudele's latest in the New York Post.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (3/13/2001; 8:07:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 49944) Van Rip Your "new" water will come from the ocean. Desalination plants or towing icebergs. Your land (above and below ground)cannot support the demand for water. Growth in surrounding states will further limit your supply. Your future water bills will be very scary. VanRip (3/13/2001; 7:41:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49943) Shifty - Some Chart http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html That lease rate chart is interesting to look at. I see what you mean. Lease rate declines are identical for all four metals for all time frames. Fascinating. By the way, are you desert yet up there? Local weather man said something about desert conditions existing when there's no water moisture in the top 8 inches of soil. Palm Beach County is now close to 7 inches and heading lower, as I believe you are too. Once a week watering coming up, since very few are paying attention to current water regulations - fines or no fines.Typical for here. Very, very serious, yet the golf courses, new homes and high rises are sprouting everywhere. As I've wondered before, where's the water going to come from? Trail Guide (3/13/2001; 7:29:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49942) Comment: On the markets! Hello all:We could be watching history in the making here? Physical gold demand and it's lack of supply is beginning to break the relationship between the paper gold market and physical market. Paper credibility is being seriously challenged by a sustained high lease rate and the lack of that dynamic's ability to raise the paper pricing structure. Something we have been waiting for! A continued falling price in the face of spiking lending rates is signaling contract supply being offered without physical supply. It's becoming a full blown paper arena (fiat gold) as the BB establishment must protect it's books to keep paper prices down, even if no gold is traded!In the past, such a dynamic could perform the same function and still have the effect of lowering lending rates as investors dropped physical gold stores in trade for a return on fiat paper gold. That supply fed the physical market. The Dollar / Euro economic war is beginning and now, that game is driving wealth into holding real gold. This breaking ratio between paper lending rates going up and paper prices going down (if it lasts) will quickly separate said pricing structure. In time, we will embark on a different price for physical. The premiums will rise well above the paper prices, Believe it!Note: Be sure to watch how the mining stock's traded prices fail to break from their relationship to paper prices. They will track the ups and downs of paper, even if paper fails it's ability to match physical gold. Even if physical premiums rise, mine values will follow fiat gold values? At some point the rules of exchange involving paper gold settlement will have to be changed (locking most mine product sales into the old structure) and this is when bullion will completely outperform "almost gold substitutes" by a wide margin. Expect all past relationships to come into limbo as this all evolves. In this breaking economic enviornment expect silver to simply fall away. We shall see.Very busy times, now! I'll talk more later.TrailGuide Hill Billy Mitchell (3/13/2001; 5:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 49941) CBFM's, CBMA'S, and CBTH'S Has anybody noticed the refrain since about Friday. They have no shame.HBM Canuck (3/13/2001; 5:32:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 49940) Quick question I'd like to sneak in a little off-topic question before the mania starts at 08:30 and 09:30; probably directed to any Ontario, Canada people.My sister and I had a minor debate yesterday. She maintains that there are 2 'pensions' that one receives as one ages, a 'CPP' pension (I believe it is optionally elected at age 60 or 65; if elected at 60 a slightly smaller income is realized) and an 'old age' pension at 65.I thought there was just one 'old age' pension again elected at either 60 or 65 (as above)?Sorry for the deviation, this may lead to a 'on-topic' post after confirmation.TIA,Canuck. SHIFTY (3/13/2001; 4:21:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 49939) Lease Rates http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html Lease RatesThe fix is in.Back to bed.$hifty Mr Gresham (3/13/2001; 2:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49938) "MacGoo. Triple Witching expiration, Act III " -- One WORTH waiting up for http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=122211 tz does the witches scene brilliantly [APPLAUSE!!!]...(One conclusion after reading it: Bill Murphy & Reg Howe, should NEVER accept an invite to visit Greenie's castle, er, home.) (Maybe he can work MacFadden's ghost into another scene...)"McGoo, McGoo, McGoo, beware McGata! Beware the thane of Gold. Dismiss me. Enough. "Be bloody bold, and resolute. Laugh to scorn the power of gold. for none of credit born shall harm McGoo. McGoo. Then live, McGATA, what need I fear of thee, Buy yet I'll make derivative guarantee. And take a bond of debt; thou shalt not fall "Be lyin-mettled, proud; and take no care. Who chafes, who prints, or where coupons pass, MacGoo shall never vanquish'd be until LeMetropole and the Sextant gold, shall come against him. McGoo: That will never be. Who can impress the economy, bid and ask? Unfix the dollar bound peg? Sweet Bondements, Good! Rebellions head rise never till the flood of yellow rise and our high placed McGoo shall live the lease of gold, pay his preath to time and wasting assets. Yet my heart throbs to know one thing. Tell me, if your art Can tell so much. Shall metal backed issue ever reign in this kingdom? ALL: Seek to know no more. Mr Gresham (3/13/2001; 1:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 49937) Topaz -- good to find you up & g'noit 'sbeen too exciting a day (some regrets I didn't get the puts on DJI Thursday -- just slow -- juggling things to keep in balance) -- noww off to sleep, (as I kin do it, standin' on me 'ead, just watch me) -- this was my tease on late night calls to AKL, "yer upside down" "naw, YER upside down." Spent my 4 days in SYD jet-lagged, prowling the streets by night, missed Prince Charlie at Bondi by a day...be back someday Topaz (3/13/2001; 1:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49936) D-uh! Mr G. Just checked that chart agin - Of course "jun" Gold is gonna be actin up ornery in Mar/Apr.Still-n-all, looked better first time tho. Mr Gresham (3/13/2001; 1:07:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 49935) Downsize Your Own DotCom http://www.fuckedcompany.com/pink/ (takes a little time to load)Hey, I haven't been inside an office for, oh about 15 years... Topaz (3/13/2001; 1:07:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 49934) Mr G Another thing worth noting is the March/April "pattern" every year. (up 'till the WA.- from then it's been all over the shop) This is consistent with N/Hemis Spring buying and we are about to enter this period NOW! Volatility upon Volatility! Bring it ON! Mr Gresham (3/13/2001; 0:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49933) Gold Volatility http://www.mrci.com/special/gold.htm Here's some of what I've been curious about, but never saw any info about gold options before...It shows gold's implied volatility (weekly chart) going up now, as it has on a couple of spikes, into the high teens percentage-wise. As stable as T-bonds (tee-hee, won't they be surprised!)I can see the non-volatile 2nd half of 2000, where the slide was on, and POG had minimal daily price variation. Also note the non-volatility and low rate of 1996 -- anyone explain the history of that? Topaz (3/13/2001; 0:45:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49932) SteveH http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Those "stalactites" on the chart of late I'm thinking are "metal" and lot's of it.So too the am Sydney "activity".Desperate times....for some! Pandagold (3/13/2001; 0:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49931) R. Powel Take BMG off your list. It is now part of NEM (Since Jan) SteveH (3/13/2001; 0:20:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 49930) As soon as Sydney closed Gold shot up, what looks like $1.00, but because it was down $2.80 or even $3.80, it looks as though it is down $1.70 now. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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