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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/13/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Peter Asher (10/13/00; 23:46:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38986) Black Blade re NG Northwest Natural Gas, servicing Portland, is giving their customers a fixed rate for the winter of a 20% increase. Apparently they will take their chances around that re their profit margin.This seems to be a move to keep their customers from converting to electric or wood heat. Golden Truth (10/13/00; 23:46:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 38985) Howdy TEX I hate it when that happens. I hope i,am proven wrong soon. I've been on the Gold Trail awhile and i feel like we are just going around and around the mountain! G.T Black Blade (10/13/00; 23:31:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 38984) GATA and Cavan Man I was reading a sample issue of Howard Ruff's newsletter, and a writer (Mr. X) for his gold section goes into the gold manipulation scheme. He identifies all the players though GATA is the focus of the article and after going into the details of all the parties involved he comes to an interesting statement: "so far nobody has sued GATA which means to some gold watchers that they have caught the gold derivative players with their pants down and they are afraid to take legal action" I have wondered why some would not sue GATA for defamation and slander and perhaps this is the reason. It is a case of when the lights are turned on, the cockroaches run for cover. The newsletter is more political and social commentary though and I definitely prefer MK's "News and Views." The GATA message seems to pop up in some unusual places.Cavan Man: There was a small explosive "…..tossed over the wall" at the Brit embassy in Sarnah, Yemen. There were no casualties but a few blown out windows. Looks as if we (US) and Palestinians got the worst of this mess in the Middle-East so far. Midas Mulligan (10/13/00; 22:26:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 38983) Reply to Auspec Auspec, I didn't see an Officer and a Gentleman. Why do you ask? I don't care if I persuade anyone to think like I do. Nature will be the judge of who's thinking is correct, I just like to vent my mind to entertain myself and relieve boredom. I am certain what I think is true however. I also believe that God is the business cycle and I'm Noah calling everyone aboard the ark of gold because the boom is over and the markets are falling meaning the rain has begun. Never got an answer to the question of whether there is an accurate measure of monetary velocity and if so does it indicate an increase during this market correction? last 20 years Fed expands money supply which causes bubble in financial markets and RELATIVE drought in commercial lending that inverts the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking and causes disinflation that depresses price of gold. A real life version of Aesop's tortoise (goldbugs) vs. hare (paperbugs) fable. Bonedaddy (10/13/00; 22:03:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 38982) Midas Mulligan Please say hello to Frisco, John, and Ragnar for me. I know I'm wrong to do it but, I'm still out here fighting to keep the looters off of MY train. Regards to all in Galt's Gulch, Bd Cavan Man (10/13/00; 21:28:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38981) British Embassy Was their embassy in Yemen bombed? auspec (10/13/00; 21:28:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 38980) Blindness Abounds/CB2 Great post amigo,Your "virtual new economy" pretty much sums up a pathetic state of affairs. You sent me scrambling for Webster's with the word autarky. Gotta stay alert around here! Will, also, still go for "mineable gold in the ground" as well as LIKELY mineable gold in the ground with the leverage provided. Not real interested in the typical majors though plan to revisit them in 01. STAYING POWER is the key by my way of thinking. A junior with lots of props, JVs, cash, and correct philosophy {let others spend the money}, will likely be there for the victory and reward the risk taken. In the meantime they can perform w/o POG advance. Buy nothing that is too tenuous to survive a few years w/o a strong gold {silver, etc} advance. Of course many of us wish we had never bought those mining shares in the former Zaire, but we learn from mistakes and proceed accordingly. Have definately learned, primarily from this site, the staying power of physical. Thank you all for that!!!CB2 {Central Banker Squared?}- Had a Macallan 18 yrs in your honor tonight. Enjoyed immensly and thought how similar to my Ron Anejos {37 yrs}. Let us celebrate together our empty nests as soon as my last "birdie" flies away gracefully.Stateside Regards,Auadvocate Cavan Man (10/13/00; 21:22:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 38979) Thanks Goldfly I am shedding tears as I write this for those Marines who lost their lives that day and for the "America" (now lost but not forgotten) that Reagan embodied with his words.Patriotism (and politics) may be one of the last refuges of scoundrels but I am completely convinced of President Reagan's sincerity and commitment to; in the words of Douglas Macarthur, "...duty, honor, country".May their memories be eternal.Thanks...CM Goldfly (10/13/00; 20:09:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 38978) Cavan Man - Reagan's speech http://www.beirut-memorial.org/history/reagan.html More stuff at the site. aunuggets (10/13/00; 19:17:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 38977) Peter Asher..... Thank you sir ! All we must do is keep in mind that one day, "The Chit must hit the proverbial fan" !! Sorry, couldn't resist.......(grin) SteveH (10/13/00; 18:56:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 38976) MM To my knowledge, there is 32,000 tons in CB vaults (supposedly) and 130,000 or so tons worldwide, since the beginning of time. Peter Asher (10/13/00; 18:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 38975) aunuggets (10/13/2000; 17:03:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38968) Spot on post AU! Thanks for saving me the time to straighten out the confusion once again. Despite a long year of effort by Aragorn, Ari, ORO and myself (Forgive any omissions please) This concept of "Flow-through" has been elusive.Perhaps if one regards fiat money as a ‘Document' like a title to a home, passing from one hand to the next indicating ownership it will be visualized.. Rather then a substance, Fiat is an "Entitlement Chit" and when used to acquire whatever, passes on to the hand of whomever delivered the goods. Fiat is a recording device circulating through the system and there is more or less of it only when it is created or returned to the issuing bank.The ‘Fact' of Fiat does not cause it's abuses anymore than the fact of a weapon causes violence.Violence or creating undeserved amounts of money supply are both acts of harmful behavior. SteveH (10/13/00; 18:54:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 38974) Canuck Are you serious? ;-)Was this really in the papers today (which one?):You said, "'Today, the Treasury announced sales of 2.2 tonnes of gold to provide pressure against surging gold prices and purchase of numerous tech shares to provide support for the ailing tech sector. After 2:00 pm, the markets settled with a small gain of 0.3%; and that's today's financial summary[.]'" HI - HAT (10/13/00; 18:36:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 38973) FIAT Fiat currency is backed by metals. GUNS. nickel62 (10/13/00; 18:34:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 38972) Journeyman that was one of the most valuable posts I have ever read here. I think you are exactly right. The public is "riding it's bankroll" and having done that myself several times I know the agony of it. I always wondered why many older people who had lived through the 1929 market crash would never have anything to do with stocks again in their lives. They are almost all gone now of course but thirty years ago when I fist started in stock investing some of them were still around. You are exactly right the capital markets will be permanantly impaired by this sucking of the public into the crap shoot that stock investing has become. I now need another line of work unfortunately. Perhaps some insurance company has an annuity product that might be need an experienced salesman. Thanks for your insight. Cavan Man (10/13/00; 18:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 38971) Journeyman I was glad to see gold fluctuate the 2.2%. It proved for me that, despite manipulation, POG can still react in a traditional manner to events as they've been reported these last couple of days. This sign of life was good to see. Cavan Man (10/13/00; 18:09:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38970) Beirut Marine Compound Attack Does anyone remember President Reagan's public response to this incident? Journeyman (10/13/00; 17:11:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 38969) The sign on the mirror - - - & Pearl Harbor If I remember correctly it was Dec. 7 that was Pearl Harbor day.And relax, folks -- one day does not a trend make. From too many movies, we have begun to believe the hero grows up, makes a fortune, pursues the love of his life and wins her - - - - all the while whipping dozens of bad guys. And it's all over in less than two hours.If this kind of volatillity makes you nervous, just think how it makes all the folks counting on their 401ks, stock options, and stocks for retirement, etc. As a professional gambler, I used to put up with fluctuations like this daily, weekly, monthly, and one time, yearly. I always ended up ahead -- eventually. Even with practice, on the more volatile swings, you end up sometimes with night sweats, panic attacks, etc.But these gamblers, ah, that's right, sorry, ah, "investors" don't HAVE any real practice. Their mind set is all wrong. As many have pointed out, they think of their stocks, etc. as savings. Trust me on this -- after this is over, higher, lower, the same -- they'll NEVER feel safe in equities, etc. again.If you feel sick because gold fluctuated six dollars, about 2.2% in the last two days, how would you feel if you were in the NASDAQ? If you owned Apple (down about 56%), etc.? We call it "riding the bankroll." When someone starts "riding the bankroll," their days as a professional gambler are numbered. The syndrome is easy to spot -- euphoria on up fluctuations and up days; depression and anger on down days. The normal human nervous system, without training, simply can't cope with this very long without breaking down. It's like a starfish opening a clam. The starfish isn't strong enough to overcome the clam's shell muscle. So it pulls every once in awhile. The clam doesn't know this, so it tenses it's muscle all the time. Eventually its muscle gets exhausted and the shell opens on the next tug. The starfish drops it's stomach inside and has a good feed.Sign on the bathroom mirror: "It's the long-run, stupid!"Regards,Journeyman aunuggets (10/13/2000; 17:03:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38968) Midas Mulligan - "Where has all the money gone ?" I think the concept of "vanishing" money as the markets fall is really in the eye of the beholder (so to speak). Suppose you buy 10,000 shares of stock in X-Co. at one dollar per share. As you are holding, the market valuation of your stock increases, say to two dollars per share. In a technical sense, you have "doubled you money". At least there are some who would interpret it that way. Others of us would recognize that you still had exactly what you started with.....10,000 shares of X-Co.So now you are the proud owner of $20,000 worth of X-Co., but all of a sudden the market starts to break, "losing" a dollar per share on X-Co. stocks. Where has all that "money" gone ? Vanished ?Or did it ever exist at all ?One way it WOULD have existed is if you had been smart (or lucky) enough to "cash out" at two dollars a share. You could have realized the equal increase in "gold value" had you simply cashed out of the stock and traded the "profits" for an equal (fiat) value of gold. Even take it a step farther, and suppose you started with $10,000 worth of gold, sold it and moved your funds into the stock, doubled your "money", and then poured it back into gold. Did you "profit" in that case ? I think most would agree you had.But what of the person you sold your $20,000 worth of X-Co. stock to after the market retreated ? Did the money "vanish" ? Or did it simply transfer from his asset line to yours ? The "trade" is the key. In a simple run up and retreat, there is no real gain or loss if the positive position is not taken advantage of by someone. Same holds true for any kind of market, be it stocks, commodities, silver, gold, diamonds, or whatever.Just a couple of thoughts...... ORO (10/13/2000; 17:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38967) Lease rates up today http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html Seems like the decline in POG today had more to do with shorts than with a decline in demand. Bid Change1-month 0.67% 0.09752-month 0.73% 0.09133-month 1.07% 0.17256-month 0.96% 0.00381-year 1.35% 0.015The gold equity indices have reacted rather well with a third higher low in so many days. The underperformance of the gold equities relative to gold is an indicator of deflationary fear in the markets, coincident with the lockup in the junk bond markets. The equities rally has not shown any gross intervention, bringing us to the conclusion that this is a possible "organic" rally created by preceding liquidity injections over the past month.An open question:The Fed publishes a "key assets and liabilities" of the Federal Reserve System which encompases bank assets and liabilities other than Money Market funds. The assets less liabilities balance among these has been falling steadilly from some $70-80 billion to under $10 billion today, on a total of some $4.7 trillion in either assets or liabilities. This would seem to indicate some difficulty on the Fed's part in maintaining interest rates at these "high" levels. They will have to lower rates so that it would be possible for banks to play the carry margin/spread between the Fed rate and the market rate of interest. Otherwise, if these figures have any significance, insolvency of the system is just around the corner. The key asset less key liabilities figure has a loose relationship to the points at which the Fed decides to start lowering interest rates in order to support the banking system.The above URL has on pgs 7-9 charts of spreads between corporates and treasuries, that indicate heavy deflationary fear in the markets as they are at the highest spreads recorded, and at double their 1993-7 range. In terms of the originary interest concept, the relative discount of future goods vs. current goods, it has risen to double its prior rate and the expected long term price inflation is at 6.8%, down from 7.5% at the end of spring. This is still reflected in backwardations in a number of commodity futures markets, particularly in energy. Beowulf (10/13/2000; 16:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 38966) Heard at work today A young 26 year old married couple that work with me were talking to each other after work while watching the market at her cubical next to mine.Wife to Husband: "Do you think the buy went through?"Husband to Wife: "It should have I placed it last night"Me to both of them: "Your buying stocks in this market? It's just going to keep crashing."His Wifes Reply: "I hope the market continues to crash. I want to add to my shares at it falls"My Reply: "Why don't you just wait till it hits bottom and then buy?"Her Reply: "No, I want to buy on the way down"I JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND THERE THINKING. I've stopped talking about mining stocks and gold to co-workers, what's the point, they might start buying and force the price up preventing me form accumulating at cheap prices.-Beowulf TheStranger (10/13/2000; 16:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 38965) Is The Bear Market Over? To answer this question, let's consider the forces which have been haunting stocks lately. 1. Interest rates: Many on Wall Street were relieved recently when the third consecutive meeting of the Fed Open Market Committee resulted in no increase in interest rates. But, the FOMC did make it clear in their official announcement they continue to view the inflationary implications of rising oil prices and low unemployment as the number one threat to the U.S. economy. It is worth noting that nothing has happened since that warning which in any way mitigates these influences. Indeed, in the days since the announcement, oil has risen several more dollars per barrel, and unemployment has reached it's lowest level in over 30 years (3.9%). Just today, headline producer prices for September were reported at +.9%. All of these statistics are clearly worse now (from the Fed's point of view) than they were a year ago when rates began to rise. So, by the way, is the monthly trade imbalance, which ultimately poses an equally serious threat to import prices. In fact, the U.S. is now running an astonishing trade deficit approaching $400 billion a year. With oil prices now at new highs, no progress has yet to be made in this area. 2. Earnings Deceleration: In recent days, many companies have warned the investment community about earnings disappointment in the months ahead. While normally such warnings could be bullish for stocks in that they might presage a Fed ease, it is hard to see how such an ease could be forthcoming now while the Fed is still losing the inflation battle. 3. The Strong Dollar: American multinational corporations such as Coca Cola and Gillette are experiencing problems because much of their earnings are derived from overseas. These companies must convert foreign earnings into dollars when reporting them to stockholders. But because the dollar keeps rising, companies keep getting fewer dollars when they make that conversion. I, for one, happen to think this problem is about to reverse to the benefit of these companies. But, even if I am right, and the dollar falls, think of what will happen to American import prices. Strength in the dollar has been restraining these costs. So, a reversal would inevitably mean more inflation in the United States and higher interest rates to boot. 4. Valuations: At the top of the recent bull market, the S&P 500 carried a price to earnings ratio of about 36. At yesterday's "bottom" that same ratio had fallen only to about 26. This is progress, yes. But, remember, prior to the recent bull market, no American market ever had achieved a P/E above 23. Valuations, therefore, are still extraordinarily high. Only a fool thinks he fully understands Wall Street. But I am convinced that what we witnessed today was almost certainly a violent upswing in a bear market. What's more, powerful rallies like this are typical during down cycles. By no means does this indicate that an important bottom has been achieved. Nor, for that matter, is an important bottom likely to be achieved until at least some of the issues discussed above are resolved. With selling temporarily exhausted by the emotional reaction to news from the Middle East, and with the Nasdaq and the Dow at psychologically important numbers (3,000 and 10,000 respectively) one might have expected something big to happen on the upside. And, while such bounces can last for weeks, normally most of the gains they provide are over with in the first day or two. We are now, of course, coming up on the end of the year. This is normally a period of seasonal strength for stocks. But the key is to own the right ones. For my money, energy and precious metals are still the place to be. The mad rush today to get into the same old over-hyped techs was nothing if not a sign that traders are still approaching this bear with too little respect. Canuck (10/13/2000; 16:46:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 38964) Drinking Will be doing some serious drinking this week-end. Hope everyone does what they need to do. Need to think or maybe not think; not sure.Have a nice (safe) week-end; don't drink and drive.Call your mother and say hello; tell her you love her.Will check in Sunday for revelations and thoughts.You guys are the best; sorry about ranting and raving.Canuck. White Hills (10/13/2000; 16:44:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 38963) Midas Mulligan #38951 Midas Mulligan, You may be right about the flow of money out of the market.But remember it may not flow to the same people that bought in . I think the real winners in the market are the middle men that get a cut off each trade. The insiders always have the edge over the dumb ,and their are plenty of them that think the markets will always come back, maybe not in their lifetime, so they buy on the dips. And, for the insiders there is always the danger that they will buy their own story, it has happened before. White Hills Canuck (10/13/2000; 16:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 38962) I don't know about you guys but I'm getting very thin, VERY THIN. Watched the world go to war yesterday, heard of a US Destroyer getting blown to bits, heard of producer inflationrising 0.9% last month, seen oil rocket to +36 dollars/bbl. and gold and gold shares fell like a brick today.I mentioned last night that 8:30am this morning we shall see, yes we saw.So here we have a planet that is on very shakey ground, very shakey ground indeed and gold is doing nothing; what does it take?Today's paper has special note, "Taiwanese government openly intervenes in stock markets to prop them up". The author suggests that in the event of US stock market crash, the Clinton administration will OPENLY buy futures to save them. This is the future boys; are they wrong? They are doing it now for crying out loud! We can it 'manipulation' or 'management' or whatever. Well no guff Batman, ya, that is what they are doing. The difference is soon the US government will say that they are doing it. What then?"Today, the Treasury announced sales of 2.2 tonnes of gold to provide pressure against surging gold prices and purchase of numerous tech shares to provide support for the ailing tech sector. After 2:00 pm, the markets settled with a small gain of 0.3%; and that's today's financial summary"This B.S. was in the paper today boys. This uphill battle gets more strenuous by the day, help me, dammit. Nearly cashed out this am and wishing that I did.Cost of missed opportunity is getting VERY, VERY expensive. ET (10/13/2000; 16:38:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 38961) Markets http://216.46.231.211/bearthoughts.htm From the market wrap;"COT report was out, as it is on every Friday now, and we find that commercial traders (the "smart money") once again increased their record net short position in the spoos. Their net short position in the NDX was unchanged. Commercial traders also reported another increase in their net short position in the euro as they continue to bet it's headed for its namesake, "zero." Gold saw its commitments improve slightly as the commercial net long position increased by 35 percent. "On the brink of an all-out crash, the bulls threw everything they had at today's rally in an arrogant final stand to try and put reality back in the box. Time will tell if they failed or succeeded, but I tend to believe this little squirt will collapse about as quickly as it began. Next week we get more earnings reports, which will likely have not-so-nice things to say going forward. Over the weekend, we have the potential for further blow-ups in the Middle East. Additionally, stock markets overseas are in as much trouble as ours is. There's a virtual grab bag of potential market debacle catalysts to choose from over the next couple weeks. If you have already rowed away from this sinking ship, be glad you did. If you are still onboard and thinking this is the unsinkable ship, you may want to reconsider. You may get one more chance next week to get away before she slips beneath the waves. "Finally, I wanted to point out an absolutely ludicrous article in the NY Post called "IT'S TIME FOR GREENSPAN TO RESCUE THE MARKET." Yes, that's right... the article proposes that Uncle Al and company step in to bail out all the gamblers that have carried this ponzi scheme into the outer known reaches of silliness. I've linked the article below. It's a wonderful addition to anybody's mania clippings collection:" http://www.nypostonline.com/business/13246.htm poortrader (10/13/2000; 16:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 38960) The Real Problem is Derivatives When Alan G testified to the Congress a while back about the proposed regulations regarding derivatives he strongly urged Congress not to regulate them due to impairing competitive advantages the US has with the European derivative players.In my opinion the lack of regulations (even though I am against governmet intervention by more beureaucratic regs)has given the power money brokers carte blanche to do whatever they so desire with our country's future economic health at the demiss of the investment public. The derivative markets outside of the old grain and cattle markets have just contibuted to legalized gambling by John Doe and public.(stock, gold etc. options) The poor John Does just keep throwing their hard earned money into the power broker's pockets and their dream of instant riches from the high leverage derivatives are just a pipe dream. Until such a time when the power brokers and their cronies lose control of their complex computerized derivatives or all hell breaks loose we Gold Bugs have no chance at all. Today's Gold Market says it all. Until the paper is gone in gold or the stock derivatives (via a crash or monetary collapse) the only real course of action we all have is to dump all our paper (stocks included) and just buy physical Gold.Then the only problem we will have is the heavy weight to lug around but, at least we will know the gold is there and not just some power brokers promises. But, then of courseif the power brokers did not have the derivatives that they now have this absurd stock market bubble or the manipulated gold market would not be around for us to enjoy on the internet chat forums and then again we would not need to worry about the NWO picking up the economic pieces afterthe Financial Armeggedon that is just around the corner. Cavan Man (10/13/2000; 16:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 38959) CoBra(too) Well said and hurrah for you.Here, flags fly at half mast while we're all off to "happy" hour. Irony persists and duality consumes. 'Tis a sad time for some to be an American. :>( CoBra(too) (10/13/2000; 15:45:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 38958) I'm not complaining - Sir Aristotle ... I'm just wondering, how blind the investing public can become at the end of a totally overblown bull market to believe the spin of TV talking heads, Wall Street promoters and the one or two outstanding earnings surprises, among all the blatant for never performers in the virtual new economy. - And the buy the dips preachers seem to stand high and mighty, again. An economy, highlighted by the fact that - among few other benefits - it can't deliver reality, only virtual prices ... forgetting about production, transportation and availability (storage - look at Oil/NG) of none core components of PPI/CPI, where inherent volatility of these, as I would feel core goods to your core existence are excluded for "your benefit"! - At least according to BLS, a synonym befitting the gov. agency it seems to stand for and administering an economy of serfs in the long run. As long as you can hide behind the illusion of massive productivity gains via massive technological advance - you may export not only your real productive capacity, but much more to the point your economic autarky, which may come back to haunt and challenge the authority of the paper Dollar and the creators of its excess availability for all the wrong reasons - mainly to serve and maintain the credit bubble, while bypassing any sound productive investment! A rare and un-necessary deviation to "profit" today, anyway. As the pendulum of virtuality is swinging back already for some time from its extreme amplitudes, some erratic movements are to be expected on its way to nirvana ...and asthe fat rats are ostensibly deserting the sinking ship for some time in big waves, it's again the small fry lured into the long term winning markets. Markets, which will be severely punished, as probably never before, by malpractice, overwhelming promotion and worst of all - screened as absolute and only safe haven for the b-boomers retirement funds - not in the least by postulating the "virtual" budget surplus, amidst a crippling, exponentially growing twin deficit. To come back to the start - Ari - I do agree - physical represents the least headache, though I will always look for the best option* of gold in the ground as well! - Remember locked in oil reserves? - Think of locked in gold reserves as well - may be as good as gold in your hand - ... Regards cb2* Option - in this regard it is minable at these prices -\ Qu: Who want's to sell a rare elephant for tusks only? BB's are out - hedgers ... buy - not us!PS: - I,also believe in bullion - deliverable gold - and - mineable gold - ! PPS: - Get you some - now - at a bargain (thanks to paper tigers) - Get Real! Midas Mulligan (10/13/2000; 15:18:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 38957) Questions and comment Is there an accurate measure of monetary velocity? How many ounces of gold exist above ground and what percentage of it is owned by the govt and central banks? I think that market selloffs raise the velocity of money and thus increase consumer spending and price inflation. Has the velocity of money increased since the market have corrected? M * v = P * Q Finallly, my nickname is Midas Mulligan, who was a character in Atlas Shrugged, because I try and sell those who think, but do not know gold, on gold as an investment. I tell them to consider their prior profitable investments in stocks, bonds, their businesses etc... a mulligan, and then explain why they should consider starting over by investing in gold. I do so because I want to see the price of gold rise because it'll be good for me and thus secondarily everyone else. Cavan Man (10/13/2000; 14:14:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 38956) beesting This volatility should be a "heads up" for all investors. The only word for me to express what I am thinking (about the markets) is "bizarre". How can these trading patterns be considered normal by any strtetch of the imagination? I am quietly going about my business and enjoy the company here. Sorry to say but I do think there is a bad ending to all of this nonsense just right around the bend. beesting (10/13/2000; 14:04:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 38955) Sept. 7th is a bad date. I think that was the day the 2nd WW ended...sorry...beesting. beesting (10/13/2000; 13:58:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 38954) Thinking out Loud! http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20001013/wl/navy_ship_attack.html 17 of America's finest including 2 woman get blown apart by terrorists and the U.S. financial sector responds by having a buying orgy, driving up prices on all major indices, buying 30 year Government debt, driving the price down, and the U.S. dollar strengthens in value against all other currencies!I DON'T GET IT!Did the financial sector surge after bombs were dropped on Pearl Harbor Sept. 7, 1941?Goldhearts may be the only "SANE" ones left in an "INSANE" world! Still Buying Gold as the Budget Allows, at insane prices.....beesting. lamprey_65 (10/13/2000; 13:37:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 38953) Today's Market Action Looks like the "mother of all short covering rallies" I guessed about the other day may be happening. How long and how far will it go? No idea. Shorts are squaring up their positions for the weekend after some excellent gains and dipsters are rushing in for "bargains"...desperate not to miss the next bull move.I'm still looking for under 3000 on the NAZ and under 10000 on the DOW and a BIG move in gold....but yes, patience is a virtue.Lamprey Midas Mulligan (10/13/2000; 12:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 38952) "Looking for a few good men" to sell gold to .... Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Ross Perot, Jack Welch, Larry Ellison, Morry Taylor, Bernie Marcus, Herb Keller, etc.. or any other intelligent, wise, and honest person who has money to invest, but does not "know gold", YET, that is. Your job is to convince them to sell their stocks and bonds and buy gold. "Action Today!" Midas Mulligan (10/13/2000; 12:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 38951) Y'all, I respectfully disagree... When the markets selloff money doesn't vanish, it simply flows from stocks and/or bonds to cash/money markets. That's because this bubble is a water, or real cash bubble, like in late 20's Germany, not a hot air, or margin credit, bubble like in late 20's America , and when it deflates it rains, not drains, liquidity, which means people have money to spend on goods and services, or on enjoying life, whereas after the 29 "giant sucking sound" selloff there wasn't any money to spend after the markets fell, and life sucked which is why it's called the great depression. As to Maria Bartolomo, her job is to look good reading what's written by the CNBC writers, and it's her, not anyone else's, job because nobody looks better reading it. She is not an intellectual analyst. That's not her natural talent. Her special ability is her ability to communicate information in a manner which is extremely pleasing to the eye whether or not you like the information she is communicating. That's why she's accurately called an infobabe. Aristotle (10/13/2000; 12:44:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 38950) Musings When I see the comments of some of my fellow forum visitors expressing a clear angst over the prompt price retreats after Gold has staged a small gain, I almost feel like offering an apology that I have been doing nothing to prop up these prices at these times. Can you fault me for doing nothing to prop up prices? Unlike some others that are splashing around in this arena, I, for one, DO NOT stand ready to buy the paper Gold offered by the commercial institutions to influence prices. To do so would only be pissin' into the wind.You see, I only buy physical Gold, and therefore my buying actions this week have done NOTHING to drive prices higher.However, it can be said that I AM doing my part to immediately aggravate the stresses on the physical market, to drive up the premiums accordingly, and ultimately hasten the demise of the Gold derivatives markets.For those of you who like to think of these Gold market issues (higher versus lower prices) in terms of "War" between good and evil, then my advice is to gather intelligence and then take the ONLY action that will materially bring about a lasting "victory" for Gold. Buy the metal! The provision of cheaper Gold is like having your "enemies" (the bullion banks and derivative marketeers) subsidize your war efforts, and as they yield in full retreat you are gaining ownership of all the prime property--even as their propaganda tries to tell the countryside that you are losing the war. HA! We'll gladly fight with this strategy for as long as the prime property remains, marching from shore to shore.Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle auspec (10/13/2000; 12:41:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 38949) Morgue? This is one of the quietest morgues I've ever visited! Whad'ya think, POG $450 today? Come on now, we have an election right around the corner. Now get back to suffering patiently, save some more "chips", and cheer up dammit {while you are mad as Hell}! Cavan Man (10/13/2000; 11:15:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 38948) the Stranger Observing the US equity markets during the last 24 hours I am drawn to the incontrovertible conclusion that, these markets don't make any sense at all.Also, watching the action in NEM, I am confident in saying that when the POG rises, gold share prices will rise and, that inflation indicators matter not a whit. 2 cents plain...CM Mr Gresham (10/13/2000; 10:12:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 38947) "When Money Turns into Confetti Currency" http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htm This is good. Journeyman (10/13/2000; 9:56:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 38946) Cisco, Dudac and PPT @Nickel62, ORO Nickel62, I almost posted the other day, but I don't have the inside knowledge of the equities markets I seem to remember you do. Early on, it seemed to me, they were setting up Cisco for PPT action. In particular Gail Dudac (sp?) set the stage. She said everyone should watch to see if Cisco, "the international darling of tech investors," dipped and stayed below 50 or came back and remained over 50, which indicated the markets would recover. The CNBC talking heads preset for Dudac and reprised the Cisco mantra early and often afterwards.Cisco dutifully dipped briefly below 50 then ramained above that completely arbitrary level the rest of the day, ultimately closing somewhere around 53. In fact, they used that theme in summing up the day's action.Is it possible that that was indeed a PPT set-up, involving established analyst Dudac? Or am I reading too much into all this?Regards,Journeyman Cavan Man (10/13/00; 08:55:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 38945) POG It has been a bit volatile the last 24 hrs. nickel62 (10/13/00; 08:32:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 38944) It is interesting to listen to Maria Bartiromo blatantly mouth the positives of certain sectors. You can bet that she has been fed by the trading desks the information that they want diseminated. It is always how well the "financials are doing in early trading or the demand that is showing up in the high techs." It is really Maria as an "independent mouthpiece" talking the book of the trading desks to move whatever is still left of the public into a purchase of a few of the shares that they need to get out of their inventory. What did you think they were going to do sell them to you lower than they bought them. Of course they are up. That is so they can make up for their losses when they were forced to buy them yesterday doing their responsibiilty of providing an orderly market. Maria is so perfect for her job since she is so clueless that she may not even be aware of the function that she performs. Nobody could be that clueless? Listen to her closely when she is talking without a script. TEX (10/13/00; 08:26:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 38943) Golden Truth Well, it looks like you were right last night......... nickel62 (10/13/00; 08:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 38942) CNBC talking heads are always gushing over the stocks from the prior days plunge being up the next morning. It is natural to have the specialist sell at a marked up price the "inventory" of stock he was forced to buy the day before when the world was ending. One of the main tools that the market provides is the extension of unlimited easy credit to buy the flood of stock that hits the specialist when there is a cascade of sell orders. It is the normal course of business for the credit to be extended to these specialists so that as they let the price fall to buy the excess shares at a lower price they can then the next day with the help of spin from the movie star analysts and the talking heads on the tube they lift the price and make a profit from the inventory they absorbed the prior day. It is therefore very important to have the availability of cheap credit from the banks and the FED if necessary to allow this little game of markup to be done profitably. It also needs the continued cooperation of the sheep both in the public and in the institutional money management business. This will continue as long as they are still able to provide it since to not do it would leave them with no direction. It is important to understand that this isn't manipulation in the sense we talk about here but rather the normal historical course of this aspect of the business. It is why specialists have always had a unique situation in the market place. Black Blade (10/13/00; 07:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 38941) U.S. prices, sales surge Produce price index, retail sales both jump 0.9% in September NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Wholesale prices in the United States and retail sales both surged in September, mainly reflecting higher prices for oil and gasoline, two government reports released Friday showed. Prices at the wholesale level jumped 0.9 percent last month, the Labor Department said, above the 0.5 percent gain expected by economists polled by Briefing.com. Excluding more-volatile food and energy costs, producer prices gained 0.3 percent, above the 0.1 percent gain expected. Separately, the Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.9 percent last month, more than the 0.6 percent increase expected by economists. Excluding auto sales, which account for a large portion of the monthly tally, sales gained 0.7 percent, Commerce said. SHIFTY (10/13/00; 07:18:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 38940) Peter Asher I missed all the fun yesterday as I was on the road. Thats just the way things go for me. Sit and watch gold for years and the only time it goes up is when I cant watch it. In the spring when we had about a $10. pop I was up here in Georgia doing some prospecting for a week. Well I will be away for most of the day today so gold should fly because I cant watch. I cant spend as much time on this computer as I am staying with friends . I scaned yesterdays page and it looked like a good read. $hifty wolavka (10/13/00; 07:14:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 38939) i like swiss cheese Black Blade (10/13/00; 06:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 38938) PPI Higher than expected but Wall Street spin blows it off Nasdaq, S&P futures are higher, but market promises to remain jittery. Sept PPI rises 0.9 percent, core rate rises 0.3 percent, Sept retail sales rise 0.9 percent. Peter Asher (10/13/00; 06:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 38937) SteveH Thanks for the prompt reply.A ratio of 1 to 3 grams per barrel, over time, seems like a rather random statistic. What is the ratio between a dollar and a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk, "over a course of many years?Decades ago there was a cartoon of two rats in a cage with a lever and a food slot inside. Outside the cage was the stereotype, bearded psychiatrist. One rat was pressing the lever and a food pellet was coming out of the slot. He was saying to the other rat. "See, we have him conditioned; every time we press the lever, he gives us food." Journeyman (10/13/00; 06:34:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 38936) Mid-east intrigues and hierarchist errors @ORO, ALL Hi ORO!I guess we're having our first substantive disagreement. Ireally appreciate your effort to enlighten me, and as usualyou've succeeded in that endeavour on many points. (I've alsocorrected my spelling! (blush of embarrassment.)However, I'm sorry this issue has moved you to spend so much timeon it -- me too for that matter. I freely admit I'm hopelesslypredisposed to favor the underdog, and that clearly means thePalestinians, and I doubt you will dislodge my emotionally basedbias in this direction. Yes, I know, if ALL the Arab nationsgang up on Israel, it _might_ be the underdog. However I can'thelp but see the Palestinians as "patriots with inferiorweapons." And I could be off and running. Instead, (and I'm NOT a mid-east expert, so take this observationthe same as you would an investment tip from an amature analyst)I'd like to point out a basic mistake I think the Israelis aremaking. As Brent Skowcroft pointed out, the anti-Israeli sentimentclearly involves mob violence, and historically it is difficultor impossible to "control" a previously subjugated populationthat is willing to express their frustration, hate, etc. in largenumbers in such a manner. For example, when Robespierre got outof sync with the French Revolution, he ended up donating his headto the cause right along with Marie Antoinette, etc. The largenumber of suicide bombers is an indication that there is _some_grass roots (NGO) anti-Israeli sentiment in the region don't youthink?I don't necessarily mean to suggest the Palestinians aresubjugated chiefly by Israel either, but typically rather bytheir own government. Governments are used to dealing chieflywith other governments and not directly with their nominallysubjugated but now radicallized populace. Dealing withgovernments is much easier -- bullies understand each other andtheir counter-parts' games and the Machiavellian rules quitewell. This is not the way, however, to deal with an activatedenemy horde. Further, expecting anything from the nominalPalestinian government, expected to be "in control" is also a bigmistake. Arafat not only understands crowds -- how else wouldsuch a wierd look'n dude stay in power -- he knows his ex-henchmen only too well, and doubtless doesn't wish to join rankswith Robespierre.Israeli hierarchists are making the same mistake the U.S.hierarchists have made in most of the last few bombing attacks onforeigners, namely that holding the subjugated populationimplicitly responsible (or for that matter explicitly, as someU.S. spokesmen have [**1*]) for what "their" government does (by,say, bombing it) only drives the population closer to saidgovernment, at least for the duration. This was true in bothSerbia and Iraq. And it wasn't the bombing that finally unseatedMilosevic either --- he was massively unpopular well _before_ itstarted. It may have been that he, defacto, _surrendered_ to thebombing that was his ultimate undoing.Luckily so far, the u.S. is insulated from these mistakes byCanada, Mexico and a couple of oceans. Israel doesn't have thatluxury and its hierarchists should think twice about radicalizingeven more potential suicide bombers - - - or is it already toolate?An aside:Hezbollah, etc. have lots of active "cells" here in the U.S., andit's clear they have many "poor-man's nukes" such as anthrax,etc. available for use. U.S. "authorities" undoubtedly know ofthe danger -- they were predicting a biological attack against amajor American city "sometime within the next five years." Andthat was about two years ago. Is this why the U.S. in a nearlyunprecedented move failed to veto the Security Council resolutioncondemning Israel's actions? Or could it be the threat Iraq mayget aid in unsheathing "BIG Float: The American [sword of]Damoclese?" (The last time the U.S. failed to support an allywith a SC veto was during the Falklands war.)Regards,JourneymanNOTES:1. This mistake would not likely be made by someone living in adictatorship -- which is what makes pseudo-democratic forms ofgovernment such as we have in the U.S. -- so attractive to would-be controllers.P.S. ORO, I implicitly knew "the state" police apparatus makesthe life-and-death calculations as you spelled out. But theyalways plan to make them come out in _their_ favor. Thisperception may be quite useful to remember should some readershere find themselves in the position of deciding to "hit thestreets" for some worthy cause or another.P.P.S. While on the subject of the mid east - - - don't worryT.C., this will _almost_ certainly be my last time spent on this- - - the bombing of the Cole doesn't look like a bin Ladenoperation -- unless he's gained a great deal of sophistication. Clearly this kind of damage wasn't accomplished by the typical"low-explosive" anfo type explosive; one expert suggested semtech-- and lots of it. Also inside info was clearly involved. Another poster suggested it might have been another "Gulf ofTonkin" or "Pearl Harbor" type event, designed to radicallize theU.S. population into support for involvement in the area. Thetiming _was_ just right. But what about the two suicides "ridingthe wave?" That normally would be an Arabic signature. Could itbe a trumped-up part of the report? Could they have beenmannequins? If not, WHY WERE THEY SALUTING? Could they have beensaluting allies that, regrettably, must also die in a worthycause?P.P.P.S. You may call suicide bombings lots of names, but the onething you can't call them and still retain even a shred ofcredibility with any thinking person is "cowardly." U.S. Sec. ofDefense Cohen and Bill Clinton, take note! wolavka (10/13/00; 06:34:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 38935) can't figure it out???????????? Buy now 7:34 cst not investment advice SteveH (10/13/00; 06:23:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 38934) Peter The absolute gold value chart is meant to show what the price of gold would be in absolute terms based on a 30-year historic average of the grams of gold to barrel of oil chart posted by RossL. Its purpose is not to predict the price of gold but to show the deviation from the norm the gold market has enterred and show the break from the traditional relations gold and oil have had. It may also serve as a stress test on the price of gold as oil drives higher whilst gold drops or languishes at its present value.You are clearly correct in that the past is not a predicter of the future, however, the gram of gold to bbl of oil chart does show how a traditional relationship is now broke and should serve to warn us of this problem and the pressure that must be (in some fashion) coming to bear on the gold market by the rise in crude oil.I read on a board this morning that gold never did bid for oil on the open market. That is not the issue. I believe we have accepted (some anyway) that this relationship of gold and oil has maintained a 1 to 3 gram of gold to barrel of oil (1.75 + or - mean) over a course of many years and that gold was or used to be a leading indicator for oil. That is now changed. What is clear is the strong correlation. What is not clear is the mechanism that used to hold gold and oil together other than a market that made this happen. Why it happened one can only guess. Peter Asher (10/13/00; 06:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 38933) 714 (10/13/00; 02:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38928) A ratio is only a ratio. At this moment the ratio between oil and gold is 7.72:1Whatever your point is I think your argument is with our compatriots who are doing the mumbo-jumbo with these ratios. nickel62 (10/13/00; 06:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 38932) My God even Bloomberg is starting to sound like USA GOLD!!!!! 3 Wall Street Truths you Can't TrustA look inside these truisms reveals some sobering realities about your personal investingBy Maggie Mahar Bloomberg Personal Finance November 2000uy a good company, hold it, and over time, you'll make money." "You can't time the market." "Over the long haul, U.S. equities outperform all other investments." These are the truisms of investing in today's market, the conventional wisdom that has stood us in good stead for nearly two decades. What we forget is that conventional wisdom is, by definition, grounded in the experience and customs (or "conventions") of a particular time and place. At each point in time, such truths seem self-evident. So in the late '60s, as inflation began to rise, "everyone knew" that stocks were the best hedge against rising prices. Unfortunately, the opposite proved true--corporate expenses outstripped earnings, leading to the worst bear market since 1929. From 1968 to 1982, the real yield on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index (adjusted for inflation) was negative: -0.76 percent. By the late '70s, "the death of equities" was the phrase on everyone's lips. The new conventional wisdom said that real estate was the best hedge against inflation. And, for a time, that would be true. As fickle as fashion, conventional wisdom masquerades as eternal truth. And we accept it as such. Particularly in an era of sound bites, bromides easily become slogans, and the more often we repeat them, the less we think about them. The consensus provides confidence, conviction, and a sense of community. But while the popular wisdom of any era is true to the reality of the recent past, when you test it against empirical data over a longer period of time, it often falls apart. Conventional wisdom won't stand the test of time: There is no rule that works in all markets. Or as Steve Leuthold, head of the Minneapolis-based Leuthold Group, an investment research organization, puts it: "Long-term investment success isn't that simple." If it were, there would be many more 60-year-olds on Wall Street. ORO (10/13/00; 03:48:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 38931) Israel and Auerback's intervention http://www.prudentbear.com/international.htm On the issue of supporting the stock markets and using government funds to support the use of stocks as money savings/balances, which Auerback discusses in this article.There is a well known case in Israel during its hyper-inflationary period. The large banks in Israel promised their shareholders that they will keep their stocks indexed to the dollar, as a proxy for price inflation. As prices rose rapidly, the banks bought their stock back on the market by printing money. The funds they printed in order to support the stock were their liabilities. As credit quality deteriorated during the price explosion, defaults rose and the banks were faced with the need to sell their stock in order to raise cash for settlement of normal withdrawals. Their shareholders, however, were not aware of these difficulties because the banks cooked their books. Finally, the day came when they were all broke and the central bank did not allow them further "sweetheart" deals because of the further moral hazard and the political conditions of the time (each bank had some political faction associated with it). The bankruptcy and resulting crash in the bank stocks led to a popular demand that the government take over the bank obligations to maintain the price of the shares as they would any other bank account. The government obliged and exchanged stock for dollar denominated CDs with a few year's duration. The banks were re-capitalized and sold into the markets and to some financiers.As I had pointed out, stocks had historically been used as substitutes for cash savings on a number of occasions -explicitly, as in Israel, or implicitly, as in the US, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Japan... The common line there is the government's contribution to creating the initial bubble that brought in the naive investors (by allowing unlimited credit expansion to favored banks and their clients), and then having the system implode after the investments made by favored (re- crony) bank clients were proven to be "non-profits" or even "dis-profits", and consequently could not service their loans, or just had the whole of their margins absorbed into interest payments. Moral hazard had turned the stock markets there into cash substitutes rather than investments, and the result was that in order to prevent total chaos, the central banks had to support the stock market so that a "floor" beneath the markets was perceived and further liquidity problems and solvency issues had to be avoided. ORO (10/13/00; 02:58:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 38930) Journeyman - Defending Israel during the gulf war The US had come to an agreement with the Arab side as to how far they can go in attacking Iraq. The one principle of Arab solidarity is that invasion of Arab land by a non-Arab would bring the whole of the "Arab nation" upon the attacker. That is why Iraqi land was never invaded by land forces and taken over (of course other causes abound - and yes, there was a land invasion, but it was followed by a retreat). Among the conditions for the continuation of the coalition was the exclusion of Israel from any attack on Iraq. The US was threatened with breakup of the coalition if Israel retaliated for the scud attacks. Israel had squadrons in the air twice after scuds landed. The US made threats against Israel if it were to attack, it would have been a great spending of political capital, whereas refraining from attack would be viewed as a great favor to the . This was despite the US acknowledgement that Israel would be within its rights to retaliate. Furthermore, the "friend or foe" issue was a veiled threat by the US and UK side who were unwilling to get out of the way in the target areas. The choices facing Israel were to attack and risk attacking UK planes and being attacked by them and lose much favor with the US State and Defence departments, as well as the Bush administration. Or, to refrain and rely on foreigners for defense and hope that Patriot missile batteries would do the trick. This had the negative aspects of damaging Israel's power of intimidation against other Arab countries and the Palestinians - particularly the image of one who does not shrink from a fight, which is the main deterent against attack. It also sent a signal to politicos that Israel can be "pushed around". Furthermore, it made Israel appear to "owe" the US for this one and rile up people such as yourself.I can't tell today, as I could not do at the time, whether this was the correct choice. I tend to think it was wrong because it created a precedent of allowing dependence on an external factor for defence. This, in turn, made suggestions of "impartial" peacekeeping forces difficult to argue against in future negotiations for peace. Black Blade (10/13/00; 02:11:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 38929) Now it's the Brit turn A small explosive was tossed over the wall around the Brit embassy in Yemen. No injuries or deaths. Looks like it got their attention though. No new details yet. 714 (10/13/00; 02:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 38928) Peter Asher 38920 There is no historical gold/oil ratio. Oil's never sold in the open market for gold. ORO (10/13/00; 01:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 38927) Journeyman - Numbers The numbers are appropriate for the situation: rioters with stones sticks burning tires and fire-bombs vs. an armed military force. Clearly, casualties would be disproportional. Consider that the side with the arms has alternatives as to how strongly to react and how far it moves forwards or retreats. (1) Holding ground: (1a) If the soldiers stand by during riots like these, the rioters will advance towards them and hand to hand combat would ensue, casualties would be high on both sides. The trained military personnel would still elicit a ratio favorable to the well armed side. (1b) Realistically, allowing the rioters to come forward close to contact would require the soldiers to open fire against anyone within a certain distance, even if unarmed, just in order to avoid the danger of hand to hand combat. Casualties are highest under these circumstances on the civilian side, and high on the armed side. (1c) The actual choice for maintaining distance between belligerent violent rioters and armed forces with a mission of containment is outside the range of a stone's throw. How do you enforce this distance? By using both lethal and non-lethal arms against any who enter. If non-lethal means are not enough, you use lethal ones. Casualties on the civilian side are minimized, but bystanders get hurt often. On the military side casualties are minor.Containment is normally the goal so that the rioters are contained in a limited space and do not damage areas outside their own. The violence would eventually subside, at least somewhat.(2) Advancing. In a rescue operation, or to reach a target that constitutes a long range threat. Advances are very bloody relative to containment. (2a) Advance without use of arms results in great casualties on both sides. (2b) Starting the advance before space is cleared in front puts you in danger of having to engage in hand to hand combat or forces you to shoot at great numbers of people who might pose a threat. Again, this condition results in many more casualties because the people who constitute danger and those that do not are nearly indistinguishable. (2c) Advance while maintaining a frontal space which is cleared with non-lethal means and with lethal means when necessary. The casualties are much higher than they are in containment, particularly higher on the military side. But they are much lower than 2b, the main reason is that the bulk of the rioters are not interested in actually doing harm or in being harmed, only the ones that run forward would actually be a threat, and conditions allow for some exercise of judgement - without this space, all that are within a stone's distance are considered dangerous. (3) Retreat. (3a) Retreat under conditions such as 1a and 2a result in heavy casualties to both sides, more so for the military than in either 1a or 2a. (3b) Retreat under 2b and 1b conditions results in higher casualties on the military side, but may have fewer casualties among the rioters. (3c) Maintaining the "safety" distance ends up lowering the number of casualties on the military side and on the civilian side.The question of how many lives of your avowed enemies who threaten you with destruction daily are worth one of your own side? I dare say it is "many more". For most situations of this type, it is a number that does not matter much to the military side facing an occupied civilian enemy. It does matter to Israel, which is why the proportion is 20:1 injured to dead, only slightly higher than it is in police control of riots, not the 3:1 ratio of military policing operations. The practicalities of the matter are such that at a minimum containment is necessary in order to prevent attacks on your civilians by an angry and violent mob. If left unchecked, it would be your street and your house that you would recognize on CNN just a moment before the mob breaks down your door and bludgeons you and your familly to death. If you doubt that is what would happen, just look at the reality of the Israeli Arab riots in Acre, Jaffa and elsewhere where the mob destroyed Jewish owned businesses and appartments and attempted to set fire to synagogues during Yom Kippur prayers. Fortunately for the Israelis praying inside, the buildings are built of masonry so that the fire did not catch.I am not in the know as to how many people, military or civilian were in Sharon's retinue. I assume there were enough military to protect the civilians in case the "visit" turned into an incident. By all clear law on the matter, both Israeli and Palestinian, and according to the agreements, Sharon had the right (like that of any Jew or Moslem) to go to the El Akza/Temple Mount. The military, when allerted to his going there would be cornered into having to provide armed escort because Sharon's presence would be provocative enough. This left the Palestinian authorities with two choices; restrain your people, or call them out to fight the "invading force". Doing nothing would have been equivalent to restraint. Krauthammer gave the details of the reaction.The US media was leaning towards the Palestinian side, which is attractive target for sympathy because they are an occupied and impoverished people (compared to Israelis, not so if compared to Egyptians or Syrians, or even Jordanians). They have had their eyes opened of late, as have the Israeli "doves" who also sympathize with the Palestinians and their plight. That their plight is partially a result of their own leadership's attempts at over-reaching is another issue. Palestinians have been the play thing of the other Arab countries, used in order to score points against Israel in a fight they don't want to engage in themselves. The Palestinian hope to gain all of Israel was never abandoned. The European media have an even higher percentage of socialists than the US, and have been pro Palestinian to the extreme. It has become a standing joke that a Palestinian Molotov cocktail is called a "peaceful protest" and the Israeli containment of the mob is called a "massacre". Surely the day on which the mob is not contained and Israelis are butchered en-masse would gain Israelis the same degree of sympathy. I rather expect Israel would not forgo self-defense in order to avoid hurting their attackers.Think through the possibilities and subject them to critical thinking, you will find that the choices are few so long as the Palestinian side is unwilling to forgo the destruction of Israel and drop the mentality of raw power. Black Blade (10/13/00; 01:20:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 38926) Foreign oil workers kidnapped in Ecuador By Gonzalo Solano, Associated Press, 10/12/2000 14:24 QUITO, Ecuador (AP) Colombian rebels seized a helicopter from an oil field in the Amazon jungle early Thursday, kidnapping 10 foreigners aboard, military officials said. Six Americans, a Chilean, an Argentine and the two Frenchmen piloting the plane were taken hostage at gunpoint at 4 a.m. in the El Coca region, 150 miles northeast of the capital, military officials said. Vice President Pedro Pinto said the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, Colombia's largest guerrilla group, claimed responsibility, calling it ''reprisal for Plan Colombia.'' Plan Colombia is an anti-narcotics initiative backed by a $1.3 billion U.S. aid package. However, Pinto listed the hostages as two pilots and seven passengers, one of them believed to be Ecuadorean. The differing reports could not be reconciled immediately. A spokesman for the rebel group refused to confirm or deny the reported claim. The oil field, operated by Spanish energy giant Repsol YPF SA, lies in Ecuador's northern territory bordering Colombia's largest cocaine-producing region. Radio reports speculated that the helicopter, seized just 60 miles from the border, was flown to Colombia after being commandeered. Rebels and paramilitaries are vying for control of vast coca fields and millions of dollars in ''tax'' proceeds for whichever armed group controls the area. Last September, another armed group seized eight oil workers eight Canadians, three Spaniards and an American from an oil-rich jungle area north of Thursday's kidnapping site. The last of those hostages were freed months later, but it was never confirmed if a ransom was paid and the kidnappers were not identified.Black Blade: Another stunning success from the Drug War chronicles. With the vast petroleum fields in S America, we could see a lot more of this. Of course if it were legalized, these "revolutionaries" are unemployed as would be Barry McCaffrey. gidsek (10/13/00; 00:57:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 38925) test test ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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