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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/12/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Topaz (3/12/2001; 23:51:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 49929) "circuit-breaker" day. Well, mebbe, How does Abby-Jo show her face in public? On Gold, the $268 draws nearer (BoE auction average) and all seems well in the paper world - except for those goldarn Lease rates:- 1 mth Kitco @ 7.33% and 1 mth lbma (for the 12th) @ 5.78%.Betcha a whole swag of Aussie Miners put their hands up to bid this time around. (thats "IF" they can get past the goon-squad and get a bid "IN")My guess x8 oversubscribed - 2 bucks on SPOT. SHIFTY (3/12/2001; 23:46:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 49928) Ravi Batra / January 6, 2001: http://www.ravi-batra.com/pressrelease1.htm This is a two month old press release from Ravi Batra's web page.$hifty------------------------------------------------------------Press Release, January 6, 2001: The Stock Market TurmoilIn his new book, The Crash of the Millennium: Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression, published in September 1999 by Harmony Books, Random House, best selling economist Ravi Batra, a professor of economics at Southern Methodist University, predicted that US financial markets would start to unravel by mid-2000 and then crash in the course of the new millennium, with much of the damage occurring in 2000 and 2001. With the Nasdaq index crashing in April 2000 and then again at the end of that year, it is clear that one of the major pillars of American asset markets and wealth has collapsed. In fact the pace of the collapse accelerated on the first trading day of the new year, as the Nasdaq index sank another 7%, then roared back after the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate unexpectedly and aggressively by one-half percent, only to plummet again over the next two days. Unfortunately, the pain to the investor has just begun. The dot.com crash is merely a sad premonition for the rest of the economy. More pain will follow soon after the presidential inauguration of George Bush on January 20th. Call it the exploding imbalance between production and consumption, the apex of bursting speculative bubbles, or the wrath of a blistering winter. Call it what you will, the real pain in US financial markets is yet to come. A New Macro Model The premise of Batra's book is a new macro model that is based on conventional macroeconomic concepts of supply and demand. Conventional macroeconomics does not explain why stock-market bubbles are born. This is unfortunate first because such bubbles have markedly influenced the US business cycle in the 1920s, the 1980s, the 1990s, and now in the new millennium. They also had a great impact on the Japanese economy during the 1980s and the 1990s. Yet the traditional model has very little to say about them. Batra offers a new paradigm. According to Batra, wages are the main source of demand and labor productivity is the main source of supply. When real wages lag behind productivity for any reason, demand trails supply, so that debt must be created to raise demand and maintain a balance between consumption and production. When this happens the economy is stabilized, and profits rise as a larger portion of productivity increase goes to the owners of capital. With rising profits, share prices also rise, and they rise faster then the jump in productivity. If this process continues, the wage-productivity gap, debt and hence profits and stock prices keep rising over many years. This is how bubbles are born. A day comes when the debt is so large that it cannot rise any more; then demand trails supply, investment sinks in the leading economic sector such as the high-tech sector today, and the over-inflated financial markets crash one by one. Economic PolicyBatra's model gives rise to a new macroeconomic policy. Traditionally, government remedies revolve around monetary and fiscal policies to eliminate a shortfall of demand. But they both create debt. Monetary expansion works through cuts in interest rates, induces consumers and corporations to borrow money and thus raise the level of private debt, whereas fiscal expansion raises government debt. Such policies do not permanently raise the people's living standards. They create piles of debt and only postpone the problem, because the debt-mountain collapses one day, and the end result is either a deep recession or a depression. Batra's remedy is that economic policy should aim at preserving a balance between real wages and productivity. This can be done through the creation of perfect competition among corporations via the strict enforcement of anti-trust laws. Once this is done the real wage would rise in proportion to rising labor productivity. In the short run, taxes hurting the poor, such as the Social Security and the medicare tax, should be cut to raise the after-tax real wage. Batra's ForecastWhen the speculative bubble bursts, the country faces a deflationary recession or depression if its trade is in balance or in surplus. But if it has a trade deficit, then its currency collapses and the end result is an inflationary recession or depression. With the trade deficit mushrooming in the United States for more than two decades, Batra foresees a collapse of the dollar and an inflationary depression in America unfolding in the next two years. Even now perhaps this sounds like a fantastic forecast; but all of Batra's forecasts, of which some are presented below, have sounded this way at the time they were made. The Crash of the Millennium describes how individuals, businesses, and governments can prepare for the hardships that lie ahead. But the long term future of the world is very bright, for we are now evolving toward the first global golden age. Author Biography DR. RAVI BATRA, a professor of economics at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, is the author of five international best-sellers. Chairman of the department from 1977 to 1980, Batra was ranked third among forty-six "superstars" selected from all-American universities by the learned journal Economic Inquiry. In 1990, the prime minister of Italy awarded him a Medal of the Italian Senate for correctly predicting the downfall of Soviet communism, 15 years before it occurred. Batra is known for successfully predicting: the stock market crash of 1987 the fall 1998 U.S. stock market slump the current market turmoil in the United States the market turmoil in Asia and Latin America the collapse of Soviet communism the revolution in Iran in 1979In his no. 1 best-selling book, The Great Depression of 1990, published in 1985, Batra predicted a depression for both the United States and Japan. While the United States suffered only a recession in 1990, Japan indeed suffered a crippling stock market crash and mounting economic troubles all through the 1990s. R Powell (3/12/2001; 22:09:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49927) Randy Greenspan, perhaps explaining or attempting to explain to congressmen what happened to cause the Asian crisis?? R Powell (3/12/2001; 21:42:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 49926) Randy The sentence structure of your mystery author is familar. Many sentenses start with phrases such as, "That is,.." or "In that sense,.." or Yet,.." or "It now seems that.." or "Is it any wonder that.." These all remind me of the big kahoona hinself, Alan Greenspan. If not him, it sure sounds like him. Rich Topaz (03/12/01; 21:18:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49925) Randy Guess---Mundell?Rationale----Sounds like the musings of a Nobel Laurate. megatron (3/12/2001; 20:39:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 49924) BIG news I personally think it says a LOT when TPTB cannot push gold down or hold the S+P 500 above the long term resistance levels. megatron (3/12/2001; 20:16:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 49923) YellowJacket This is an issue which is very hard to get to the bottom of.Hopefully you have a basic understanding of the differences between forwards, futures, and options. You may otherwise become overwehlmed while reading thier financial statements.I must say one thing and that is just because a miner has engaged into certain contracts does NOT make that a BAD/GOOD company or decision. You MUST examine the contracts extensively. Phone the investor relations dept. and have them explain it to you. Every one is different. SHIFTY (3/12/2001; 20:09:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 49922) Got Gold? http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html To steal a line from Neil Young ..."In the field of opportunity it's plowing time again!"Got Gold?If you need some our host can help you.Click link above.:-)$hifty Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (3/12/2001; 19:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 49921) Old Yeller How do you bleed a fiat turnip? Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (3/12/2001; 19:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 49920) Old Yeller Oh no! Say it ain't so! (This forum has been a lot of fun the last four market days!) Old Yeller (3/12/2001; 19:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49919) Central bank prescription for frayed nerves. Possible scenario for this week?In the interests of stability and to reduce general market volatility,our good friends in the central bank fraternity will arrange to provide liquidity in the gold market.I hope I'm wrong,but I believe we've seen this movie before. SteveH (3/12/2001; 19:32:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 49918) Summers nominated as Harvard's Prez! Anyone else hear that?Guess I'll have to decline my acceptance letter, not! SteveH (3/12/2001; 18:39:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 49917) Japan down another 4% as we speak eomGold down too. Hmmm? Netking (3/12/2001; 18:24:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 49916) Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape - Silver <Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape> ...The challenge being though that silver is a secondary bi-product in the process of producing it. To build up the above ground supplies (including reopening of some mines)when the price goes to $100/oz will take some time, research on silver mining yearly capacity both kinetic & potential will bear this out. The squeeze is will come, it may be triggered by a big stand in the market for physical from a large user like China but it will come soon or sooner! Yellow Jacket (3/12/2001; 18:18:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49915) Gold stocks Does anyone know which of the gold mining companies that are unhedged? Chris Powell (3/12/2001; 17:48:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 49914) GATA causes gold market jitters, Fedsure's Goodwin says http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/713 Is anyone surprises?To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Seeker of the Grail (3/12/2001; 17:15:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49913) They are saying the four letter word!!! One and All,Can you actually believe it? They are actually saying the "four lettered word" on T.V.I have heard that word today than I have in the last two years. I thought the mention of THAT word was forbidden!Did any one notice the size of the adornments around the the necks of the female commentators?The necklaces were huge. Mabey they were trying to make some sort of statement. Sure caught my eye. I would have thought a month ago, that they were not allowed to wear swear words around their necks on t.v.May your cup overflow,SOTG WW Oracle (3/12/2001; 17:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 49912) @ORO, re: GSEs http://dowjones.work.com/index.asp?layout=story_news_main&doc_id=40749 "The market can call the GSEs on credit quality, and disount their traded equity according to suspected book manipulations. In the absence of such a discount,and with the presence of Buffet as investor in Fannie, the problems are not quite serious. The only time the GSEs are in trouble is when the Fed chokes themoff with a spread to mortgage rates that causes them to liquify their book." And Buffet just liquidated his holdings in Freddie and Fannie. Should I be worried now? SteveH (3/12/2001; 17:09:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 49911) Nickel62 Absolutely correct. If these gold stocks show any sign of life, while all, ALL, DOW stocks are red, that would be a catalyst that would set these stocks free. Moneyline, CNN, spew wisdom on where to put money in a falling market, but gold would seem to continue to fall outside their radar's range. By sheer lack of interest or sheer editorial policy they simply do not speak gold-talk. To their credit at or around 4:30ish I did see Newmont's CEO on the telly talking about gold's bright future, but it was a 15sec. or less piece that had no intro and no follow on. They did show some 400oz bars being moved though.In all the rhetoric of emerging markets and bonds, analysts continue to talk tech for the long run, or DOW stocks or US as the safe haven. Once these people catch wind of gold not moving down (who cares if it doesn't go up) this gold thing will skyrocket. Only a matter of time now. Cavan Man (3/12/2001; 17:06:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49910) the Stranger Must have been a heckuva day in the trading pits eh? POG held in a very tight range; no capitulation--not yet. NEM traded heavy up .01. What does your radar see out there?? R Powell (3/12/2001; 17:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 49909) Mr Nickel/ Seeker KGC -1.56% ECO +3.26% HGMCY +6.59% GLG +7.03% ABX +0.48% PDG +3.98% NEM +0.06% HM +1.00% AU +2.26% AEM +2.30% ASA +1.77% BMG unchanged Even though mining stocks got hammered a bit near the close as Mr. Nickel has reported, still, not to bad on a day that saw the DOW and DUCK down a little more than normal. Seeker, concerning the coming auction, it might be more significant watching how many bids are offered rather than what the final price is. It would be poetic justice if one of these auctions turns out to be the final trigger to a major POG rally. Rich Gandalf the White (3/12/2001; 17:05:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 49908) $hifty's PONZI Basement Construction Estimate ! RossL (3/12/2001; 16:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49903)$hiftyhttp://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmupdated chart - we might need a basement by Friday!====Based on Hobbit TA, the minimum level of the Basement should now be set at the 5750 level, and IF gold shines like it finally should, additional levels will be needed beyond that level also !Note how the former "bottom" of 6,750 held three times above, and then acted as a upward resistance as the PONZI line returned twice before this latest LOVELY breakdown ! ====The Hobbits are now gathering more pocket rounds and singing "Somewhere over the Rain---<;-) USAGOLD (3/12/2001; 16:48:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 49907) Goldfan. . . Thank you for posting the PST situation. Would you mind forwarding that Canadian Mint e-mail to me so we have it for our files? Send to:'cpm@usagold.comThanks again. Please let us know anything else you find out on this very important matter. My understanding is that the GST and PST is waived on the purchase of .995 or better gold coins, but remains on anything of lesser purity. The French Angel is roughly 90% purity therefore a non-qualifier and GSTed-PSTed (Its the pits to win a contest and have it cost you money.) We are also seeking information on how pre-1933 gold coins will be handled since those who own these items unquestionably view them as "financial instruments" -- the Canadian government's criteria for exemption. In their literature, they state that the coins must be a "financial instrument" and then define "precious metals" as "financial instruments" if they are .995 fine or better. That also throws a wrench in the U.S. Eagle which is a 90%+ coin and competes with the "pure" Maple Leaf and Austrian Philharmonic. I do not think that most owners would consider one more of a "financial instrument" than the other. My question is what does this do to the spirit of NAFTA? After all, the U.S. Eagle is the gold coin minted by Canada's primary trading "partner" under the agreement. To be honest with you, I find the European VAT ruling on gold much clearer and consistent than the Canadian rulings, though I, (and Canadian gold owners I am sure) are grateful for the exemptions in force. I believe a proper presentation to the federal government possibly through a sympathetic legislator would bring consistency to the ruling. My gut tells me that the differentiations have to do with a lack of knowledge and understanding of gold coin ownership more than any attempt to close out the U.S. Eagle and pre-1933 gold coins. Randy (@ The Tower) (3/12/2001; 16:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49906) I saddled up the horse this weekend and went chasing after echoes of "the Town Crier's voice" The hills, canyons, and forests were alive with the sound familiar to our ears. It would seem the many original seeds of similar thought have taken root in very fertile ground.This is one I pleasantly discovered and brought back from my ride. Unbeknownst to me at the time, this paints a picture in shades remarkably similar to those I offered in my long post last week (Wednesday?) Can you guess who said this, and when? The answer may surpise you.---Begin excerpt---There is little doubt that recent crises reflect the increased scrutiny or financial discipline imposed on a country's policies and institutions by foreign investors and lenders. Global market participants represent a class of stateless voters, roaming the world's economies seeking the best wealth-creating institutions. They represent an irresistible force.+There is, however, a core tension between the interests of market participants and the incentives of local politicians to redistribute, rather than to create, wealth. In the end, the forces of wealth creation will dominate those of wealth redistribution.[...]Joseph Schumpeter said, "the essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism, we are dealing with an evolutionary process.... Capitalism, then, is by nature a form or method of economic change and not only never is, but never can be, stationary."+Propelled by technological change and chance economic events, these institutions undergo a continual process of change. Those qualities that enhance economic well being tend to survive, and those that do not, eventually disappear. People adopt institutions -- laws, rules, conventions, and customs--to define and enforce property rights and, more generally, to reduce the costs of economic exchange. ... Voters are not only the citizens at a local ballot box, but also financial asset managers in global capital markets. ... Domestic ballot-box voters respond well to politicians who pander to their craving for wealth-sharing programs. Capital-market voters survey the world for those who pursue the best wealth-creation policies.[...]As we often see, however, governments sometimes seek to minimize the interest differential by providing guarantees of the obligations that domestic banks and other borrowers incur to foreign investors. This creates an unavoidable moral hazard as risk shifts to general taxpayers. Furthermore, because of the subsidy to borrowers involved in such guarantees, the demand for them will always exceed the amount the government can possibly honor. ... I'm sure most countries in the world have, in the past, and will in the future, feel they have come up against capital and currency market vigilantes. It is becoming apparent that government promises--whether in the form of pegged exchange rates or in the form of deposit, loan, or investment guarantees -- are on the endangered species list.[...]As The Economist magazine once put it, "a government that insists on access to the printing press cannot be trusted with it." ... There are unavoidable wealth redistributions and dead-weight wealth losses that result from debasement of the currency, whether intended or not.[...]Whatever the views of domestic politicians, the trend in the behavior of businesses and households around the world is unmistakable. ... Consumers everywhere are the same -- they want the best product for the lowest price! Only barriers to trade might prevent a superior product from gaining global market share.[...]"sound money advocates should not waste their resources lobbying for a gold standard, which by definition would include the state as overseer and manager of a gold currency, specifier of a gold price in terms of dollars, custodian of the gold, and manipulator of a central-bank issued paper money. No. The only way to ensure that gold becomes a viable money is first to separate the gold from the state and the state from any further role in the operation of a gold money." [Randy's note: shades of FOA's free market gold, perhaps?][...]Following Hayek, I submit that international monetary relations would benefit from competition among major alternative currency units. This would be more likely to enhance world welfare than systems like Bretton Woods that mandate direction by supranational governmental bodies, which tend to ossify over time.[...]However, regardless of what monetary policy may prevail in any nation, individuals living in most free societies choose whatever currency they want to use as a standard of value, as a medium of exchange, and as a store of value. Over half of international trade is denominated in U. S. dollars. More than 2/3rds of all U.S. Dollar currency is not used in the United States, but by people in other nations, even where prohibited by national laws.[...]Control of a central bank gives a government a safety valve for financing government budget deficits through inflation. Experience has been that all too often the monetary actions of central banks have become a fiscal instrument -- imposing the unlegislated tax of inflation on defenseless households and businesses. ... Through expansion of money, governments can gain seigniorage and levy an inflation tax without the consent of the public expressed though a legislative process. [...]Once caught off guard, however, the public becomes more wary in the future. For their own protection, they reduce their holdings of financial assets denominated in the domestic currency. The spontaneous dollarizations of many countries around the world in the early to mid-1980s exemplify this response. [Randy's note: the rise in gold holdings as reflected in WGC stats also exemplify this trend to the ultimate degree.][...]Policymakers, politicians, and citizens -- no less than madmen in authority -- are to some extent the captives of academic scribblers of the past. That is, our understanding of the choices available to a nation and of the consequences of making those choices inevitably is processed through received wisdom. ... Major breakthroughs in economic theory began to appear in the late '60s, but they carried over to central banking only with a considerable delay. ... Is it any wonder that political leaders the world over adopted national currencies issued by national central banks when the static framework for thinking about money seemed to promise the moon?[...]This is not to deny that there are powerful and politically expedient or "necessary evil" arguments about inflation. ... The idea simply was that any place that found it difficult to constrain government outlays in a range around the amount of tax receipts would also lack the political will to resist the temptation to debase the currency as a form of unlegislated tax. In that sense, monetary policy became a form of fiscal action -- an alternative way of financing government expenditures. It was a highly regressive and dishonest form of taxation, as well as a form of taxation that undermined the efficient utilization of resources. Nevertheless, it was politically popular in many places. The ultimate failure of any policy that was tolerant of inflation, however, has undermined its political appeal.[...]Conclusion: Permitted the choice, people prefer high quality money. Yet, the past century is littered with instances where national central banks failed to provide a stable standard of value. It now seems that the era of government monopolies of the domestic standards of value is drawing to a close. Competition among competing private and public suppliers should be permitted to provide consumers with a choice, a choice that economists declare will enhance wellbeing.---END---Guesses and rationale? nickel62 (3/12/2001; 16:18:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 49905) Best guess the British Auction is oversubscribed 4 times and the market Moves up on the sale. The game for the shorts is over (finally) I think. nickel62 (3/12/2001; 16:15:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49904) sorry my Fidelity link didn't survive the posting.. The xau index for all it's faults still is a proxy for the gold stock and it took a nosedive right on cue at three thirty just a half hour before the market ended the day. It is amazing how blantant the manipulators are willing to be even when they are being watched. RossL (3/12/2001; 16:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49903) $hifty http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm updated chart - we might need a basement by Friday! nickel62 (3/12/2001; 16:10:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 49902) Does this look familar? It seems someone is very interested in not letting the gold stocks show any leadership...... http://activequote300.fidelity.com/webxpress/ia_charts_frameset.phtml?SID_VALUE_ID=XAU Take a look at the above link from Fidelity and you will see the same slamming down in the last half hour of the gold stocks that we saw on friday. Someone very large is sending a clear message that they don't want the lemmings sensing any chance to get their money back by igniting a rally in gold. I guess they figure that the financial services types have been f##king them for so long they are kind of engaged. Seeker of the Grail (3/12/2001; 16:02:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 49901) (No Subject) Best Guess?? TO anyone or all,What is your best guess, how the 25 tons at the BOE auction on Wednesday will affect the POG, (how much down), and gold stocks? Or, in light of todays Dow, Nasdaq, and Tse figures do you thik gold will hold it's own due to the markets volitility?TIAMay your cups overflow,SOTG goldfan (3/12/2001; 15:49:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49900) ADMIN re Canadian taxeson coins... Please ignore my previus most on gst in Ontario. Either the banks charged the wrong tax, or I have not rmemebered correctly wht they did. I recieved this today from the Royal Canadian Mint, the offical producer of Maple Leafs, and commemorative coins and bullion wafers etc. It's confusing so I've sorted it out in a simple statement at the end.>>>Dear sir,As per your request for information on the taxes applied on Bullion Products.There is no GST and no SHIPPING & HANDLING on these productsHowever there is PST if calling from province of Ontario.EXCEPTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:NO GST, NO PST, and NO SHIPPING to these following Provinces:ALBERTA, BC, QUEBEC, N.W.T. and the YUKON<<<What this means is:There is no GST on these products. All provinces charge PST (Provincial Sales tax) except:ALBERTA, BC, QUEBEC, N.W.T. and the YUKON.This leaves a lot of questions unanswered. Including why Canada Customs is breaking the rules? (Canuck Gold ( msg#: 49894). Except, maybe there is tax on stuff manufactured outside of Canada? I'm pursuing more research..hope I can get some answers.Why we need free trade!!Goldfan Mr Gresham (3/12/2001; 15:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 49899) Seeker No, I did some Yahoo searching, but it seems Morgan Stanley (MWD) did not announce anything about derivatives (the ones rumored to help Japan cook,er, arrange, its books -- something about stockholder lawsuits, yes, but I don't know if that's routine these days (wink).Sorry, I didn't read your post about "eating gold", so I don't know how you used the phrase, but I'm sure it wasn't "idiotic" and I didn't aim it toward you. (Of course, we're ALL venerable wisemen here -- ;)I encountered it in my readings on y2k forums several times, and it was a "dumbing down" remark used to shut up discussion, so I was glad that our own w-k made an answer to it.Of course we all know that there is a "souk" in most large cities where a gold coin can be converted to purchasing power for many other things. (I should ask some Bosnian and Ethiopian acquaintances how gold fared under starvation and daily shelling conditions.) That is the answer that needs to be made, although just try sending a friend into a coin shop and you'll get those looks of "HUH?"You know, Seeker, if we ever do locate this Grail of ours, we're gonna look and feel more like Indiana Jones on a bad day than Sir Galahad... Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (3/12/2001; 15:37:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 49898) Tree In The Forest,....No offense taken sir! I admit I might give the impression of acting the mighty mouse by being at odds with the "three wise men" you mentioned! (Big belly laugh as I adjust my cape!)If silver hits $50/oz, it will come out of everywhere, the woodwork included! Again if one of the "three wise men" decides to cash his chips in.....well you know.I know my negativity towards silver does not sit well with the investor/speculator. I consider myself a "saver" first, and thats why I am so bullish on gold. I think silver is relegated to a commodity from now on, no longer a monetary medium. Even if it is a monetary metal in the future....side by side with gold, gold will always command greater acceptance and desireability.I still have a full bag of silver. Perhaps for old times sake, or still looking for that missing date/mint, or when the fancy strikes to pull out those "uncirculated" (Shocked I bet!) coins in the very circulated bag, I keep it around. I've given up trying to move the whole damn thing around though! (I would move it again if we're talking over $25/oz!) Seeker of the Grail (3/12/2001; 15:21:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 49897) Morgan Stanley 9:00 Announcement Mr Gresham,Have you heard what the announcement was?I did not think that my fruit bar statement vs a gold barwas "idotic", nor did I think that it would cause such a stir. I was simply trying to state that survival can be more important than wealth.Working-Kirk, a gun can not only be used for self defence to protect yourself from those trying to steal from you, but also for hunting. So I can eat the produce ( non human) of my firearm. And yes I do realise that there is real value and usefullness to gold as a medium of trade for goods and services, but possibly that doctor whose time is being consumed helping the sick (and does not have the time nor the land to grow produce or hunt upon) may find some value in my venison roast or veggies...yes?And, my only point that I was trying to say to Mr.G was that he is very fortunate that he has that land.I did not mean to be "idiotic" nor offensive.May your cups overflow,SOTG Tree in the Forest (3/12/2001; 14:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 49896) Randy Having trouble posting today. It took 4 tries and several minutes to get in the last message. Your server is being hit hard and things have barely even started cookin'. Time for an upgrade!<LOL> Tree in the Forest (3/12/2001; 14:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 49895) SLATT You said:"I do know that the availability of above ground silver is far greater than the two metals you used in your example. The availability of silver in all its forms is great."This is unquestionably true, however, you fail to mention the other side of the coin (pun intended) which is that the demand for silver far exceeds gold, platinum and palladium put together. Silver is used in enormous quantities. For example, the March contract. Some 45 million oz. calling for delivery in one month. That's a lot of silver. But maybe your right after all. Perhaps Buffett, Soros and Gates are really stupid! Perhaps they are part of the dumbed down cabal I posted about the other day. <grin> Still, it wouldn't kill you to pick up a 100 oz. silver bar would it? Just to be on the safe side. I am respectfully ribbing you a bit sir SLATT so don't take offense! By the way have you seen the stock market indexes today? Poor Mssrs. Dow and Nazdork are having a tough time of it. Canuck Gold (03/12/01; 14:09:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49894) USAGOLD (03/12/01; 11:50:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 49885) MK, it will probably be of interest to you to know that when I won a French Angel 20 franc coin in a recent contest here, Canada Customs hit me with a 7% GST and an 8% PST levy on the declared value of the coin.CG SHIFTY (03/12/01; 14:08:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 49893) Sideline Money The "Could it be this money is going to a GOLD Auction this week? was $hifty not CNBC.$hifty SHIFTY (03/12/01; 14:06:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 49892) Sideline Money I heard them say on CNBC that a lot of money was sitting on the sidelines. Could it be this money is going to a GOLD Auction this week?$hifty Mr Gresham (03/12/01; 13:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 49891) The Devil's Derivatives Dictionary http://www.margrabe.com/Devil/DevilA_E.html#sectB This looks like fun... CoBra(too) (03/12/01; 13:47:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 49890) @ Randy @ The Tower - "Lender of Last Resort" ... Reminds me of a seminar with Dr. Kurt Richebaecher some 25 y's ago, then speaker of Dresdner Bank, and the currency basket which made up SDR's (IMF's infamous Special Drawing Rights)today still holds the same value - namely -paper value. ... and, while the "Richebaecher Letter" today is world renowned in backing reality in monetary philosophy, the IMF and World Bank seminarists, defending last resort lenders of paper hegemonists, are and will be ousted by countries having experienced the special and lasting results of these culprits lending of "Specified whith-Drawing Rights". ... As KR clearly sees the outcome ... so do you - buy gold while it's there - cb2PS: CM and Auspec ... been skiing, will revert soonest - cheers!PPS: MK - thanks for guidance to alternatives!PPPS: Joedamp - my e-mail was defunct - though snow is cleansing - take care. SHIFTY (03/12/01; 13:30:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49889) RossL I think you may have to dig DEEP!$hifty SHIFTY (03/12/01; 13:29:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 49888) RossL RossL: Kind Sir it seems that the boys in NY need you to install a basement to the Ponzi Index chart !!$hifty Randy (@ The Tower) (03/12/01; 12:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 49887) There remains plenty of room for an ugly downside http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_dow.html Perhaps only a very tiny currency unit could continue to "measure" the DOW as large? While central banks try to maintain the price stability of currency, the banking sector in general lives and dies by the ability to balance the numbers on the books.In the end, given the choice to save one at the expense of the other, the Central Bank will always save the banking system at the expense of the currency by playing the role of lender of last resort. That's a result of political will, and you can ignore it at your own risk.got gold? Randy (@ The Tower) (03/12/01; 12:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49886) Did you see FOA's weekend commentary on the Gold Trail? http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html In it, he discusses the likely scenario surrounding soaring premiums on gold in metal form over prices established on gold in paper form.And on that theme, here is some quasi-related material that also ties in with our latest online offer of gold German 20 mark coins at very nice prices while supplies last. (The March edition of News & Views featuring this coin will soon be reaching mailboxes...and with it, a certain "off-line" audience that up until then is unaware of this special offer. It is usually soon after this newletter is sent that the coins are snapped up, so don't delay if you would like to add any number of these beauties to your portfolio of tangible old-world wealth.)---On May 31, 1971, Barron's reported that the prior three years had marked a substantial increase in the value of certain gold coins. They cited that the U.S. "Double Eagle" had been selling at a 45% premium over its gold value in May 1968, and by May 1971 that premium had risen to 69% over its gold value. (The gold value at the time was officially set at $35 per ounce in defining the international dollar-convertibility for gold.)In another example, the German Mark piece in May 1968 was selling for 75% premium, while in May of 1971 it had climbed to sell at a premium of 175% over the official gold value.At nearly the same time, U.S. News and World Report indicated in its Sept. 25, 1972 issue that while gold bullion had been pegged at $38 per ounce as the official government price, the "free-market price in Europe recently has been nearer $65 or $70."---Let Centennial assist you with all of your precious metals needs. After all, it is YOUR decision to do business with Centennial that makes this website possible. Thanks for your support--past, present, and future. USAGOLD (03/12/01; 11:50:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 49885) Goldfan. . . Thanks for links. Also interested in how the tax is applied to gold coins and bullion transactions on the provincial level, if you can help us with that. What is exempted; what is taxed; etc. MK Randy (@ The Tower) (03/12/01; 11:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 49884) BridgeNews source is putting on a brave face despite being pinched by gold leasing http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/art?010312/064724 While falling U.S. stock markets and a stagnating economy signal trouble ahead for the dollar, the latest market talk of the activity of the LBMA's "parent" Bank of England along with rising lease rates signals that trouble is ahead for the overextended market of paper bullion banking. The same precautionary acts of self-preservation that inspired bank runs in the gold-banking days of pre-1933 should be inpiring those of you holding unallocated gold accounts which are subject to leasing to call your account custodians to withdraw your gold funds either for delivery or for safe storage in unleased accounts.Back in the old days of banking, when people would come for their gold, the bank manager would always make an unwarranted appeal for calm and confidence in the face of his overextension, hoping that they would turn away without seeking their gold deposits. Today, in the realm of bullion banking and gold leasing we see the exact same thing.Bridge News quoted one source, who wished to remain anonymous for obvious reasons, playing his role as the manager appealing for calm in a moment when concern should be the justified prevailing mindset of all gold depositors.The reporter for Bridge News passes this along today... a product of the propaganda provided by their regular lineup of sources who are themselves hip-deep in the unfolding gold leasing scandal:---Dealers said gold is expected to encounter resistance in the $272region for the near term as lenders of gold continue to appear "in goodnumbers to take advantage of the attractive lending rates on offer," saidone source."These lease rates will always attract lenders, particularly in quietmarkets like these," he argued.---Given my market overview in the opening sentence of this post, would you expect any unbiased gold insider to actually describe "these" as "quiet markets"??? There is supply tightness as the confidence in the alternative gold derivative markets wane, and he does not want you to add to his problem.If you have an account of gold out on lease, call it in. Further, call Centennial to help lock up the supply of gold reaching the market from out of weak hands. goldfan (03/12/01; 11:12:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 49883) USAGOLD ( msg#: 49881) http://mindprod.com/CanadianTaxNative.html The link contains a calculator for all provincial and federal sales taxes in Canada. Enjoy!!Goldfan Randy (@ The Tower) (03/12/01; 11:10:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49882) Fed continues to add funds to the nation's banking system with a subtle wave to USAGOLD Apparently, my friends at the Fed who always read my commentary here felt somewhat self-conscious after reading last week's jab that the Fed was running a risk of losing the mystique that their efforts were anything approaching "scientific" rather than arbitrary. I had suggested that even a child could provide the sort of round-number adds that had become standard in the open market operations of recent days...adding $4.0 billion, $2.0 billion, etc. via repo operations.In a sign of "mending" their ways, the Fed on Thursday tweaked their 28-day repo to $2.005 billion, and yet again today they have entered the open market with a 28-day add tweaked to $1.995 billion. Additionally, the Fed tacked on another $5.5 billion through four-day repurchase agreements.And again, we can see the clear purpose is to provide liquidity to the banking sector, because the fed funds rate at the time of the open market operations was trading at precisely the FOMC's target rate of 5-1/2 percent.So, are the "insiders" expecting a rate cut in the near future? The stop out rates on the bids accepted by the Fed on the 28 day operation were in the neighborhood of only 5.05 percent.Diverdifying into tangible goods can preserve your wealth when your currency accounts lose their purchasing power. Of all tangible assets, gold is most permanent, portable, universal and liquid anywhere on earth. Get you some. USAGOLD (03/12/01; 10:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49881) justamerebear. . . . Can you forward us by e-mail the Canadian provincial sales tax situation? Is it published anywhere? Getting information is very difficult. There is no central clearing that we can determine for information for exporters such as ourselves. If you have something on this, could you send it tocpm@usagold.com We would be grateful. MK RossL (03/12/01; 10:50:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 49880) beesting I believe that the proof gold eagles are minted at West Point, and aren't available yet for 2001. Regular bullion strikes are available now from your favorite bullion dealer. Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/12/01; 10:45:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 49879) ORO,...interesting post It has been nearly 40 years and who knows how many TRILLIONS of $$$$$ and I still can't see any sign of that "Great Society". Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/12/01; 10:36:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 49878) Tree In The Forest Hello Sir! I certainly do not have a crystal ball. I do know that the availability of above ground silver is far greater than the two metals you used in your example. The availability of silver in all its forms is great. So much so that the demand for it IMHO will be satisfied long before $100/oz. Scrap, reopening mines, working tailings etc. will satisfy that demand in fairly short order (again I do not claim to have a crystal ball, I just remember 1980 well). As I stated earlier, I believe the price could spike and fall almost as abruptly- just from the actions of a few of the heavy hitters already mentioned.If the historic relationship between gold and silver still exists, then any metal that "helps" to move gold ever higher is my friend. With 20%(?) of physical silver owned by one person- that is one big timebomb! I dread having to physically move a full bag, much less selling it! Portable sure, but I'm not King Kong! For me gold is the perfect medium to take advantage of the speculative urge, government insanity, storage and portability requirements, ever increasing industrial use, transgenerational insurance, all the while heeding the lessons of history in that gold is what everyone wants in good and bad economic times.Put ten gold eagles in a stack, and then an equivalent amount of silver bullion in a stack. Value each only on the POG and POS present in each stack. Such is the conundrum for the common thief or even the government as thief. Stolen wealth or hernia? Or both? aunuggets (03/12/01; 10:26:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 49877) 2001 U.S. American Gold Eagle Availability . Regarding earlier posts, the 2001 U.S. American Gold Eagles appear to be readily available, with many of the larger east and west coast dealers having case lots available for sale. No "price spike" being noticed like with the 2000 dates, but it's still early too. goldfan (03/12/01; 10:20:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 49876) admin, justamereBear (03/12/01 msg#: 49874) Bank of Nova Scotia, and CIBC, in Ontario, both charge GST on Gold Maple Leaf coins. Evidently, they are regarded as manufactured products like any other.FWIW Goldfan beesting (03/12/01; 10:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49875) turkey hunter # 49864 U.S. Mint & Gold Coins. http://www.usmint.gov/catalog/catalogb.cfm?Urlcategory=American+Eagles Turkey Hunter, thanks for the link to West Point Gold. I have been checking the U.S. Mint website for information on 2001 Gold coins for about a month, with the following results:<<Coins All 2000 American Eagle Proof Coins are currently unavailable. Please return during the Spring of 2001 to purchase Year 2001 American Eagle Proof Coins.>>(end of repost)Comment:I don't think many if any 2001 Gold coins have been minted.WHY?????The Mint has at no time said they have discontinued the Gold coin issues, yet they are not advertising them for sale.Year 2000 Gold coins were minted in Denver, if I'm not mistaken and it seems the whole Gold coin minting operation has moved to West Point N.Y.In 1999 U.S.Mint minted about 61 tonnes of Gold coins(A Record Year) The last figures I had showed year 2000 Gold coin mintage at a near record "LOW" amount.Could it be the U.S. Government(Mint) has or is experiencing a shortage of Gold for their Gold coin issue but doesn't want the public to know about it, as it may cause a buying panic.USAGOLD, can you shed any light on availability of U.S. 2001 Gold coins? Thanks in Advance.....beesting. justamereBear (03/12/01; 09:53:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 49874) Admin Re tax on gold Tax on gold in Canada is all over the map. To be sure, GST is not applicable on gold coins. They couldn't do much else after they declared the maple leaf to be legal tender. However at the provincial sales tax level it is quite another thing. In Ontario sales tax is applicable on gold coins, and was not on bars. (bars have not been available recently, so I don't know) In Quebec it is the other way around. Provincial sales tax on bars, but not on coins. Since in both cases the provincial sales tax exceeds the GST, it is significantIn England, at least previously, there was VAT on all.j'Bear Randy (@ The Tower) (03/12/01; 09:45:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 49873) Other areas have no trouble seeing the benefit of saving outside the national currency http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CoQXx0b9DtJeYmZq2nZGW&FQ=p%25rco%20and%20%28c%25%25fr%20c%25%25frx%29%20and%20not%20%28moneygraph%29 HEADLINE: Chile's peso opens at yet another all-time lowTrouble with neighbors threatens stability in the region as one trader explains:"In Brazil and Argentina we've seen some accusations against government officials, which are a similar symptom to what was seen in Turkey just before the financial crisis in that country. That is creating a lot of worry in the market and people are seeking protection in a strong currency like the dollar."Why gold? Because when you get down to brass tacks, the Dollar is not fundamentally different than the Peso, the Real, or the Lira. When the "free market" finally got to have its say on the value of the Turkish Lira two-three weeks ago, the local price of gold shot up from 180 million lira per ounce to 250 million lira.Imagine how foolish someone in Turkey might feel if they had been postponing their gold purchase to see if the dollar-based price of gold might reach some arbitrarily low figure like $250. As they discovered, time is a luxury that cannot be afforded when it comes down to financial survival. Those in foreign markets who are saving dollars to the exclusion of gold as their means to escape the local currency may find to their dismay that they have merely jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire.When the going gets rough, governments always turn to the printing press as their primary tool for engineering a "solution". They can kill your currency with printing, but they cannot print gold. Tree in the Forest (03/12/01; 09:43:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 49872) SLATT, Working-kirk Sir SLATT... hello. I have a question for you. If I had come to you around the time when platinum and palladium were selling for a hundred and something dollars (around half the price of gold) and had told you that they would shortly rally to the same price as gold and then higher than gold and then over one thousand dollars an oz. making gold look like garbage and gold holders look like fools who missed the boat, would you have believed me? Markets have a way of surprising people both on the downside and the upside. It is also an old saw in the markets that silver moves faster than gold. With the cabal not having a way to control the physical silver price, a breakdown in Comex silver could send the price for physical soaring, just like platinum and palladium when they broke TOCOM. Time will tell.Working-kirk: If gold is too expensive, try silver...it's cheap and poised for a big move. Good luck. ORO (03/12/01; 09:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 49871) Glearis - social costs and benefits Rothbard, in typical fashion, suggested that since individuals and voluntary organizations do a much better job in taking care of that chunk of the environment they own, it stands to reason that all "public" (read government) land be returned to the public, by the sale of all non-essential government property. Also, the sale of the open seas to the international public (obviously while preserving rights of way) would prove beneficial to fisheries and preservation of unique species. The main point being that there is a defined and particular owner with very specific values who can sue for damages done to his property, be it wildlife, fishing yields, etc., and can put a price on his ideological and other preferences by buying up land and waters that are environmentally valuable. Instead of pitting Greenpeace against the industrial West, Greenpeace could have spent its time and effort on fund raising, education, and research in order to pick up Amazon rainforest, dolphin and seal rich coastal areas (where they can also raise funds by operating eco-tours). With this approach, Greenpeace would have gained much support from industry and the more practically minded individuals who now see the enviro-political movement as a threat to their livelihood and even their life. (High functionaries in the Eco-movements, including Greenpeace, actually said outright that humans are a parasite on the Earth and should be "controlled", I guess that would be done with a human targeted "pesticide"??)Private owners have a much higher degree of personal interest in their property than government officials can ever have. Most notably because of the prospects of leaving it for their progeny, down many generations in the future. Furthermore, where in government ideology must be tempered through the process of compromise with a very broad array of interests, it can remain pure within a private organization. Thus a forest with spotted owls would not be clear cut under one administration, and then put under a complete cutting ban under the next. A compromise with industry would also be practical, with the actual dangers in industrial exploitation of the particular parcel being the consideration, not a general Republican nonchalance, nor a Gore-ian far left "land with no people" prohibition against uses by industry and tourism. In democratic systems, the time horizon of the politician is the next election on the short end, and his political career in his elected office on the long end. To a few, this means a full lifetime from the thirties to their late sixties. Rarely does this extend further, and the future is much less important than the current election and the issue of the day. For bureaucrats, time horizons are a matter of time between functional promotions, and the opportunity to go through the revolving door to industry, which leaves some 5-7 years of interest in the effect of decisions. This is much less than the considerations of the private individual.As for other social benefits, in terms of income disparities, there is nothing more obvious than the generally much more charitable attitude of people who need not fight their government for keeping their income and property. People would also have to take responsibility for their charitable inclinations themselves rather than assume that the presence of a government program to address the issue means that it is taken care of.Before social security, there were mutual assurance organizations in which about a third of Americans participated. Savings (before the Fed and government inflated money into unreliability) and insurance policies were the tools of the individuals not in mutual assurance organizations. These were all destroyed by social security, which reduced both incentives to save and the incomes from which savings could be obtained. Income taxation on insurance companies and on income from savings made people less willing to save, by reducing the return on savings, and provided incentives for people to become officially poor, so that they would not have to pay income taxes, estate taxes, etc. but instead could collect social security and medical benefits.There is no particular reason that the same people who as politicians and bureaucrats were helpful and sympathetic towards your child's condition would be any less so had they been outside government. Quite contrary to this, one would expect them to have a deeper and more practical concern, and a much greater volume of resources at their disposal. Furthermore, they would no longer have to think in the mind bending legalese, nor be bound by red tape which perpetuates the outmoded, and prevents adoption of the new. In short, I would doubt that the "social costs" you refer to would actually be such. Social costs are what government creates. Remember that a cost is to somebody. When the cost is to government, it means that society as a whole is bound by the decisions of a miniscule minority that passed the law and regulations now in effect some 20-30 years back, and are paid for by current people. Obviously, the costs to society are multiplied by the distance of time from decision to application, and from the guaranteed obsolescence of actual program operation this causes. How many had spent years advocating and lobbying for one or another deserving cause? Instead they could have spent this time in actual assistance, in creating and collecting resources. But government has the lions share of resources, and the deepest pockets. Thus effective care of an issue is expected (mistakenly) to come out of government, rather than from tax impoverished individuals.C Northcote Parkinson, made a set of observations as to the nature of organizations; most notably that they drift towards decay. Organizational atrophy can be avoided in the private sector by switching from one charity, mutual organization, or company to another. As the Civil War demonstrated amply, such a choice is not available to people seeking to leave the jurisdiction of a government. The political switches in legislative and executive control are limited in effect by the persistence of the bulk of government in the form of the career eunuchs of the bureaucracy. These perpetuate the process of atrophy to levels of sheer carelessness, demoralization, and incompetence unimaginable to those who have not participated and done business with them (I have done both in two countries and can state with certainty that it has nothing to do with the particular society from which the people come, but only from the nature of the job). So… no, there are no social costs to the free market. To the contrary, most social costs you are likely to be thinking of are the direct result of impoverishment by government extraction of resources from the public, or the results of government action in creating disincentives and roadblocks to solving and preventing social problems. TheStranger (03/12/01; 09:32:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 49870) Newmont Interview Coming Up On CNBC during the next 30 Minutes Ronald Cambre, Chairman of Newmont, will be interviewed shortly. Knallgold (03/12/01; 09:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 49869) Sector Watch: Gold's Alone in the Winner's Circle http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/marketfeatures/1339832.html "...One of the very few sectors on the upside was the defensive of all defensives -- gold. Typically, when investors are bailing on everything, they flee to safety. And they typically then like the cool, hard feel of gold. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index was rising 1.7%. ..."Gold is cool ! TheStranger (03/12/01; 09:17:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49868) A Little Good Publicity Gold seen in powerful rallyAnalysts point to leasing rates, short-sellers By Thom Calandra, FT MarketWatch.com Last Update: 3:32 AM ET Mar 12, 2001 LONDON (FTMW) - This is make or break time for gold after a two-decade decline for the precious metal."There are tremendous short positions in the market so it won't take much to spark a massive rally," said Larry Edelson, a former European gold trader and managing editor of Safe Money Report in Florida. An ounce of gold Monday in Asia was selling for $273 and ounce, up $1.50. The metal has rallied this month after descending to $255, with lending rates for the metal as high as 7 percent.Lawrence Eagles, a commodities analyst at GNI Ltd. in London, said the soaring lease rates, which are set in essence by central banks and other large holders of the metal that lend gold to dealers, indicate a "tightness in the market." "To my mind there are lending institutions carrying on business as normal and there is a large amount of short positions in the bullion market and they are all looking to cover their positions, Eagles said. "And there isn't the supply around."Gold prices are getting a lift from institutions and producers that use derivatives to forward-sell the metal. Such forward-selling by mining companies such as North America's Barrick Gold (ABX) and South Africa's Anglogold (AU) locked in higher prices during a miserable, multi-year stretch of falling gold prices. But as the price of the metal climbs, gold mining companies that hedge their production in this way - as well as speculators who short-sell the metal in hopes it will decline - must locate the physical metal for instant delivery.Edelson and others cite resistance for the metal's price, whose major trading markets are London and New York, at $283 an ounce, $291 an ounce and $305. "Blasting through $301 would confirm that gold has bottomed and the 21-year bear market is over," said Edelson, who says as an arbitrageur with International Commodity Services in the early 1980s he traded as much as $175 million of bullion daily.The Bank of England also may have assisted in gold's recent rally. The bank is one of several European central banks that sell gold regularly. Last week, it reduced its gold sales for the coming fiscal year by about 20 percent. The final 25-ton gold sale in the bank's current series is set for Wednesday.Eagles said the bank's reduction was a "minor factor." The Bank of England has sold 250 tons since of the metal since fiscal year 1999. "Realistically, the Europeans have an arrangement to sell 400 tons of gold a year for the next five years," Eagles said.The pact among European central banks is known as the September 1999 Agreement and was set to make the bank sales more visible to the gold market, which has languished even with jewelry and industrial demand for the metal rising in recent years. The Bank of Switzerland alone has a total of 1,300 tons of gold that it intends to sell, Eagles said.Still, as author Peter Bernstein explains in his new book "The Power of Gold," central banks for centuries have sold gold when the price was low and hoarded the metal when the price was high. FRONT PAGE NEWS Pondering recovery in 2nd half of 2001 Several economists, including Jude Wanniski at Polyconomics Inc. in the United States, blame the Federal Reserve for the languishing gold price. Wanniski in a recent report said general price deflation across the American economy - and the Federal Reserve's tight reins on the levels of money that member banks release into that economy - are depressing gold prices. Economics lesson"The deflation can only be fixed by having the government indicate it wishes to end it and also decide to re-balance the interests of dollar debtors and dollar creditors by adding liquidity until the gold price signals an appropriate level," Wanniski wrote.Aside from the economics lesson, analysts say gold mining shares may be poised for a powerful rise if gold's price moves higher. For each 1 percent gain in the price of gold, gold mining shares generally move between 3 percent and 5 percent higher. Edelson points out that unhedged companies such as North America's Homestake Mining (HM) have seen their shares lead a recent rally. Homestake does not forward-sell any of its gold production and so would have more to gain than hedged producers."Remember, it won't take much buying to send gold shares through the roof," he said. "The entire gold mining sector is about $30 billion market cap. So if just one tenth of 1 percent of the money coming out of equities scoop up some mining shares, the sky is the limit for mining shares, and gold bullion."Indeed, many analysts expect the continued deflation of Nasdaq to boost gold shares. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index of North American mining shares already has risen steadily during Nasdaq's decline this winter to the 2,000 level. The mining index (XAU) , known as the XAU, has gained 19 percent in the past month."Homestake, Agnico Eagle, Placer Dome (PDG) have clearly turned the corner on the charts," said Edelson. "They have much higher to go."Thom Calandra is Editor-in-Chief of CBS MarketWatch and FTMarketWatch Cavan Man (03/12/01; 09:08:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 49867) Leigh Only the prayers of your heart (which are known) have everlasting value. All else, even gold and silver are worthless and will not buy you a ticket to eternal bliss. Cavan Man (03/12/01; 09:06:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 49866) DROOY web site Can't get in there. What's up? Journeyman (03/12/01; 08:51:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 49865) Quantitative Red http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Of the 44 world-wide stock exchanges covered by the "Yahoo! Finance - Major World Indices"page (link in header), only three -- or about seven percent -- show positive. Andbarely positive at that. As follows: SYMBOL TIME LAST TRADE CHANGEChina Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 2:00AM 2012.552 +0.892 +0.04%New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40 Mar 11 2075.51 +2.46 +0.12%Pakistan Karachi 100 ^KSE 6:32AM 1421.22 +1.50 +0.11%Slovakia isn't open.Regards, j. turkey hunter (03/12/01; 08:41:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 49864) West Point Gold http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html I just got off the phone with US Headquarters Mint concerning the West Point Gold. Last summer the gold there was listed as 54,067,331,379. Now in January 2001 the sameamount is there except it is "Custodial Gold". I thought that gold might have changed hands, this is why I called. The explanation given me was that it is held as an asset now and not for coinage. The US still owns it. They must be getting a lot of calls on it. I also asked what PEF means. They said, Public Enterprise Fund. Here is the phone number for HQ Mint if anyone wants to call. (202)354-7222 Leigh (03/12/01; 08:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 49863) turkey hunter After reading your post, I went back to my Bible to re-read the passage I quoted, and WHAT DID I FIND! It is GOLD that will be removed during the last days, not silver! Here's the quote:Ezekiel 7:19They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the Lord; they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels (you can't eat gold): because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity.At this humiliating point I don't want to venture to comment! SHIFTY (03/12/01; 08:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49862) CNBC / GOLD The CNBC spin heads said they would talk about gold this hour.$hifty Cavan Man (03/12/01; 07:46:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49861) Asia Pulp and Paper Default: $12 Billion. Not good. Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/12/01; 07:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 49860) Netking,.......of silver dreams I have given that thought as well. What concerns me about the above ground supply of silver is all the items it has been used for, industrial, coinage, even silver service. The silver service that was special to grandma 20 years ago that she couldn't part with at $50/oz then....today after languishing around for years at less than $7...then is "worth" $100/oz....many who have since inherited grandmas silver service would readily sell it to try to bail out there over spending, over speculating stock habit. I again refer you to the dearth of full bags of 90% silver out there. There is no shortage of 90%. Even if the ratio does reach 6 to 1 (which I can't see happening- even with massive manipulation) above ground sources are far more plentiful than you think. As the price rises more above ground silver will find its way back into the stream. Also, Ag is a gangue mineral in many operations. At such low prices and concentrations it may not be economically feasible to refine these tailings, but those tailings piles exist above ground, near and dear to the mine owners heart- waiting for its day.If it does happen with silver, it will be in the form of an extreme spike that will plummet nearly as fast. Even that wonderful event would have its downside to anyone who has to move their full bags - anywhere! (I know I would send my bag a packing at that price! All the better to help me buy another piece of the sun!) Max Rabbitz (3/12/2001; 7:02:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 49859) R Powell and looking forward to lower POG http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Acropolis/6193/worth.html I need to clarify. Six months ago I was focused on mining stocks and felt badly when the POG declined. Now when the POG declines I see that I can buy it cheaper!!! I would rather the price stay low so that I can accumlate more. I have no idea what the POG will be tomorrow, but know it is manipulated and that this can not last. I still own mining stock, but believe the manipulators want to drive the weakest close to bankruptcy, take over and force more hedgeing to drive POG down further, and continue this cycle until they own all the miners. Then they will allow free gold. However, they are likely to lose control first and create horrific economic problems for us all. These are the same greedy "geniuses" who thought up LTCM. I've reposted, this time properly I hope, the link to the Ancient Roman Coin site by Doug Smith. He does not sell coins, do appraisals, or advertise. He just maintains this site for the love of these old coins. Looking forward to Trail Guide's next installment. Pandagold (3/12/2001; 6:11:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 49858) But you CAN eat gold, It is eaten for its medicinal properties. The human body actually contains some gold (minute) even among those that don't eat it Canuck (3/12/2001; 5:52:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49857) Last humour before the start of hectic week http://www.fallstreet.com From Warren Buffet, commenting on entering into the 'new economy':""We have embraced the 21st century by entering such cutting-edge industries as brick,carpet, insulation and paint. Try to control your excitement." SteveH (3/12/2001; 5:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49856) Perspective on stress (cont.) http://www.lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm Well, isn't that link interesting? 252 days and Nasdaq holds the record for intensity, defined as quickest drop in quickest time, but to equal 1929, she must continue until 90% of the value is gone. In the case of 1929 it was 20 plus years later before the DOW reached its high of 29'. SteveH (3/12/2001; 4:53:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 49855) Perspective on stress ORO,Any thoughts as to the amount of stress from this point downward for the Nasdaq and the Nikkei? I can't help but think that from this point forward we are going to start seeing exponential financial stress and fractal events of a market breaking nature start to occur, such as possible gold shortages, extra large repos at the Fed., possibly bullion banks or Hedge funds or both announcing large losses or failures (Morgan S. due to announce something at 9:00am or so the rumor flies.) and much more. What do you think?Steve Mr Gresham (3/12/2001; 2:33:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 49854) Hellzapoppin' http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=121577 Morgan Stanley has a 9 am announcement. Japan is tanking, and MS may be involved in derivatives blowup.Indonesian rupiah is sinking -- again. Topaz (3/12/2001; 2:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 49853) Mr G, kirk. Hey Mr G,...and you'd have been most welcome here! (that would have made about 5 Goldbugs in the place)Those NZ lasses eh!If ida had me druthers..ah! t'is in Kiwi ida been,drop-dead georgeous she was - and Daddy owned a Marina.If it hada beena PUB! there-da been no holdin me....nah!Hi Kirk,As long as we're not talking about "chowin down" on a 400 ouncer - there's a goodly bit of evidence of Gold consumption (the eating kind) on the Net. Put ORMUS or Annunaki (sp) in the search engine.It's a long walk from 24K Gold to 24K Horn-blower mate.(unsolicited advise from a 10 yr, 2 karat Harp man) <smile> Mr Gresham (3/12/2001; 1:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 49852) Oro, working-kirk Oro -- Thinking about you. I did not mean to make cyberspace a more precarious environment for communication than it already is.working-kirk--You wrote my thoughts exactly on that idiotic "You can't eat gold..." saying. But -- let 'em say it. More for us for awhile longer, and they'll have to learn it the hard way anyway.I have a friend in Dorchester who got his house from HUD for $25,000 by walking a couple miles through a blizzard that shut down Boston and he was the only one who showed up and the only bidder. That one's an edge I'm happy to leave entirely to you someday, so good luck if you give it a try! Mr Gresham (3/12/2001; 1:09:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 49851) Topaz, Tree "It IS fun!" -- I decided I had to be either making money or having fun here, so I guess the good and frolicsome company of fellow POGsters has kept me satisfied these two years. But I do admit to entertaining fantasies of having BOTH, and in the near future. (Hey -- if I or she'd won the Lotto in '84, I might be in Oz now with a Kiwi lass, who very wisely has not waited for my return...)Tree -- "managing" the markets -- I just imagine they've kept the players from defecting with the promise of a starting fun loud enough for them all to hear (and continued access to other insider bennies). And their belief in fast market plays (a la currency trades) makes them think physical is reachable, until they actually try... Netking (3/12/2001; 0:20:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 49850) working-kirk . . . working-kirk - "...but Gold can eat you!" (There's some food for thought if you'll pardon the pun) working-kirk (3/12/2001; 0:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49849) You can't eat gold By the way, if any of you have access to other gold forums like kitco, or gold eagle, can you post the following:"You Can't Eat gold!" there for me since I don't have access and I think like goldbugs would like to read it. Netking (3/12/2001; 0:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 49848) Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape - Silver Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape; One of the basic factors though is the time delay between in converting the 'below ground' supply into the 'above ground' supply. Do some study on this and...eureka! working-kirk (3/12/2001; 0:10:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49847) "You Can't Eat Gold!" You keep saying:"You can't eat gold!" Implying it will be totally useless if there is a total collapse. Well, I want to answer that for you and other who might have some doubt about the usefulness of gold.First by saying "You can't eat gold" you make it sound like that it the end of the argument. But let's consider using the argument in a different way."You can eat shelter!""You can't eat health care""You can't eat the things for protection and self defense like guns or how to fight""You can't eat art."And I am sure if you think about it there are other you you need but you "can't eat."Yet, while using your argument if times get "interesting!" You can use gold to buy those things and other you will need. And people while hoarding food will find the other thing hard to hoard.Take shelter. If the market crash, there will be a lot of people who have extra real estate they don't need but will need to raise money. I don't own a house. And since I was born born there is a chance I will never get to own a house like many of my generation, unlike their parents. But If I offer what little gold I have to someone who has two houses I do stand an outside chance of becoming a homeowner. Since the market has crashed there will be a lot of sellers and not a lot of buyers. In normal times it hard enough to sell something. And if a house has been on the market long enough a seller will consider all offers no matter how low or outrageous. I can't say what the price of gold may be. Probably very high but I suspect the gold cartel has more than one trick up its sleeve to keep the price down. I offer all I have in gold. I may have to search but I do think eventually someone will accept. They will accept for these reasons:1.) He may be able to use the gold to buy some of the other need I explain later.2.) He sells at a loss (face value of the gold) but sometimes people sell at a loss to help someone who is worthy and to get them out of a jam. I knew a friend who was able to buy a house far under market value. A 100,000 house for $25,000. The owner was going through a very messy divorce and wanted to just dump any possible asset so the wife didn't get it. He sold the house to the tenant renting it, a young person like me working hard but not making much and like me not likely ever to afford a house. But the owner said better him than the wife. In other words he was worthy and the owner was willing to help him become a home owner. 3.) He sells because he receives no other others. There have been people so frustrated they say "For two cents, I'll sell this dump and have done so!"I am sure you can think of other case where I find someone willing to sell me a home for my gold. So let's talk about health care.If we are in a situation, where people won't sell food for gold, that means we are facing a massive famine. And if there is famine, there is sickness. You will want to see a doctor. And so will everybody else.What makes you different? If there is a famine, everyone will have no food. If there is hyperinflation, money is worthless. What if you offered the doctor gold. The doctor will consider it. He know he can trade health care for food but there may be other things he/she wants Since gold is true money, it makes it easy for the doctor to accept. And since gold can be easily hidden, he get to keep the money (gold)But you argue, most people don't recognize gold. How will he determine its value?First, learning about gold is not the hardest thing to do. You as a seller can teach him the value.Second, I think more people will recognize gold, and know the value and be more willing to accept it whether we have hyperinflation or depression. The factor in getting people to recognize them will be the new Saccawa gold coin. You and I knowthat bronze coin as well as being ugly is worthless. But the general public doesn't know. At at first glance the color between the two is close enough so a person who is curious will recognize true gold. Of course you could argue the government printed up those tokens as a way of getting the public to reject gold. My counter-arguement is Whenever the government tried to do one thing it usually has the opposite effect. I think of the Saccawa coin as a training tool for the public. Just as a gold prospector must first learn of iron pyrite or fool's gold so he know real gold, I think the public will learn about real gold from this foolish coin.Next, I am probably the first person to argue "A gun is totally useless because you can't eat it. And you shouldn't learn how to fight for the same reason. Well, you don't want to eat a gun. It the OTHER PERSON you want to die of lead poisoning!"A gun is a mean of self defense and you have a moral right to defend yourself however the means. Just because people misuse guns doesn't mean you should forsake a means of self defense. Now in a crisis situation you are now going to sell your guns for gold. And this brings to mind one of the best movies I ever since and it is revenant since it talks about gold. The movie I am talking about is "The Treasure Of Sierra Madre" with Humphrey Bogart as a down and oil hobo and Walkter Houston as a grizzled old prospector. The scene is where the Bogie and Friends(?) get surrounded by a bunch of bandits. The bandits say: "You don't want those rusty guns, Why don't you give us those piece of junk! Throw them down. We give you a shiny watch for your gunsBogie answer "You keep you watch! We'll keep ours guns!" And then he shoots a hole in the watchThe movie and scene also contains the classic line "Badges! No don't have no badgesz! We don't need no stinkin' badgezs!"While the movie is GREAT! I also recommend reading the book. One thing the book covers that the movie doesn't is the relationship between oil and gold. (Otherwise, why was Bogie on that oil rig?)The movie and book leads to my last thing you can't eat, and that is art. What is the purpose of art? According to Ayn Rand, It is to refresh the soul. Now I plan on making my own art, but to those who socked away enough gold, you may want to consider using your gold to buy art in the trying times to come. I promise you'll get it at bargain basement prices like you are getting your gold now. Last, there is one other thing that you can't eat but I think is absolutely necessary. "You can't eat freedom." One of the things that lead me to gold is a lot of Liberian writers like Robert Ringer and Harry Browne in talking about the need for freedom, talk about gold and how the two are linked. I can't only give you a personal example. As you know, the country has stopped saving. The banks in all honesty are not encouraging saving. I have always been a saver. But I can only save in small amounts. Usually my saving account has been under a $100.00 Well, I am a small saver but at least I am a saver. I noticed one day my (former) bank starting charging me all sorts of service fees where they did not before. Usually $3.00 or so. Now that may not be much to you, but having been broke too many times, it is a lot for me. I figured any bank that needs to take what little money I have is a bank in trouble! So I closed my little bank account and starting saving in gold. A few months later I hear all sort of rumors on the internet that this bank is having serious trouble with its derivatives. I am glad I got out of that bank. But what the gold does it give me freedom in this way. I am working at a job I hate. So I quit! Decided to practice my trumpet. Now most musicians starve. I wasn't starving For every month I could cash in some gold I saved to pay my bills. I wasn't happy I sold my gold at the all time low but at least I wasn't being robbed by the bank nor had I suffered at bad as those who brought as the top of the NASDAQ bubble. But having the freedom to pursue a dream was worth the price I price in gold. Now that I spend it all, I gotten another job and will try to save some more and hopefully get the chance. But even if the gold price takes off without me it was worth it weight and more in gold. Freedom always is.So to those who tell you, you can't eat gold, tell them the other things you can't eat. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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