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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/11/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 23:54:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89377) Sundeck #89369 -- JPM Sundeck,I found your post interesting. I admit, I have been puzzling over JPM's supposed endorsement of gold stocks (or "initiate coverage" – what does that mean, just that they're having one of their analysts(?) cover it?). However, I am far too inexperienced to speculate on the underlying motives or their intentions, not to mention the ins and outs of your hypotheses.I have heard more than once that gold will go up when TPTB want it to (i.e., when it is finally to their benefit) and I would like to think that may be the case here.However, I also remember that it seemed like every time Goldman Sachs was quoted in the media as speaking positively about gold stocks, within 2 days, the stocks went down.So, I came to the conclusion that if any of them say anything favorable about precious metals, hence drawing the public's attention to PMs as a viable investment, said PMs manage to take a dive while the public is ardently watching. That reaffirms the public's misconception of PMs as a volatile investment, not to be trusted.Considering the "rumors" about JPM's derivative exposure, I'm not surprised that they leaked some story relating to gold. I'll be curious to see down the road what happens to the stocks JPM is supposedly initiating coverage on. But, times may have changed and I am very intrigued about the possibilities inherent in the latest JPM spin. Oh, would that it be that gold would be allowed to rise to its rightful estate!OK, those of you who are adept in intrigue...any speculation? Do they think they have the ability for one more mega short (after "selling gold" to the public)? That seems too simplistic, even to naive me! (I should probably just delete this post rather than so blatantly show my stupidity.) To me, it would take a financial genius to comprehend the possibilities and ramifications of derivatives!!Well, whatever we may think now, time will show us what is so.I just know that "I got mine" (physical PMs) and am just watching all of this like a TV show that somehow managed to retain some semblance of intelligence. Mis-guided and mis-used, unfortunately. Liberty Head (11/11/02; 23:37:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89376) Sundeck- Hedge on Hedge While reading your question about JPM buying gold stocks, it reminded me of the double reverse play in football. There is lots of latteral running, before any forward motion takes place. There are more chances for a backfield fumble and big loss as well. If I was the quarterback for JPM at this point in time,I would send every reciever long.It's "Hail Mary" time for JPM. Black Blade (11/11/02; 23:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89375) Energy Prices – Puplava http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Snippit:Crude oil prices for December delivery rose 2.8% to $25.94 a barrel. While oil prices rose today, natural gas prices fell. The oil markets are worried about war, as well they should be. However, the real crisis in energy could come this winter from natural gas. The story out today was deceptive. U.S. stock piles are down from 3.254 trillion cubic feet last winter to today's 3.145 trillion cubic feet. Furthermore, weather patterns point to a colder winter this year. New York's temperatures are already down in the 50's. The National Weather Agency is already predicting abnormal weather patterns this winter due to El Nino. As of last week US drilling activity has dropped to the lowest level in 26 weeks with only 826 rotary rigs working, down 28 rigs in the latest week, and down from 1,010 the same period a year ago. Current consumption drawdowns show this winter the US natural gas markets depending on weather could be 3-10 Bcf/day short of demand. A colder winter temperature as we are now experiencing could drive that figure even higher. When you have a supply driven deficit versus a demand driven deficit, they are much longer lasting and harder to correct. The only thing that can balance the deficit and bring it back into balance is sustained higher prices. Even though natural gas prices and oil prices are up this year, E&P companies have been reluctant to increase drilling activity for natural gas because of the uncertainty regarding price. Given the current nature of supply and demand it looks like this winter we are likely to see much higher gas prices that take us well into spring and summer. And unlike the last natural gas crisis we don't have cheaper oil prices to convert to. Oil prices are high and could go even higher if we go to war or terrorist attacks disrupt supply. Current al Qaeda plans show the terrorist group is shifting its strategy towards energy assets by going after tankers, refineries, and oil based facilities. Some experts are predicting that natural gas prices could rise over $5.50 and head even higher if we experience severe weather.The US has finally worked off the massive gas supply bubble that was created with regulated prices during the 70's and 80's. The physics of natural gas show that it tends to decline much faster than oil. Geologists mention the fact that over the last year or so the US has finally entered into the decline stage of its natural gas reserves. Oil production in the US went into decline back in 1971. Policymakers as well as users may find it hard to fathom that oil and gas are self-depleting assets. The US natural gas decline rate is currently about 25%. Since we aren't adding enough natural gas reserves this means only one thing: production must fall and prices will rise as a consequence. That is why it is looking like we are heading into another natural gas crisis that will be triggered by a rapidly falling US gas supply with harsher weather.Black Blade: As I have been saying. We are headed into a new energy crisis mostly due to reduced replacement of reserves. Drilling programs have fallen off sharply and the latest data show that we are headed into decline mode. The NatGas producers are holding back because they don't want to get burned again. The only problem is that this time is likely to be a long term decline into a perpetual shortfall. The CoinGuy (11/11/02; 23:06:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89374) Sundeck I'm sorry, but I don't see any scenario available other than FOA's that is remotely possible. I would imagine they could be cashed out of their contracts for a net gain in the (failing)paper market. I will have to defer you to Ari the speculator(smile) on this one. As far as their derivative position, it is beyond...well it is insane(and growing). I'd like to know what encompasses their bottom line on off balance sheet debt. I bet this is scary as well. As far as the shares go, the float is ENTIRELY to small. Large fills on mid-tiers are next to impossible. I usually work an individual issue both ways(smile again) at it's level of support, and I'm having trouble, especially on Canadian issues. I'd imagine the likes of JPM sticking it's head into this tent with more than a toe or two would stick out like a sore thumb. Contrary to popular belief, there really aren't enough shares to go around in the non-hedgers. Might pay to spend some time on the trail...plenty of excellent information there. All provided FREE by our most gracious host.Best of Luck,The CoinGuy Draco (11/11/02; 23:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 89373) Sundeck It is an "interesting" question is it not? I enjoyed following the math in your line of reasoning. You must have a math background.The main problem that I see in that senerio is mining share supply. I have read in the past on this forum, where the market cap of all of the combined shares of all of the mining companies is equal to the market cap of Microsoft.Thats it -- until the shares begin to split 5 or 10 to one. It would then be, as you point out, too late to get in on the full rise in price. You also point out very well the difficulty in going into this thin market on that scale without arousing alot of attention. Now imagine several JPM's trying to do the same thing. At some point panic would ensue and all stelth would go out the window. Panic buying would be unleashed and its 'to the moon" time.I think, IMHO that the shorts will have to be allowed to settle in fiat. That may indeed cause a rise in POG but imagine the price explosion if they were forced to go to the open market for physical. And besides, there is just not enough gold available. So I think that "insufficiant quantity of mining shares" would fit for #3 on your problems with this stratagy.Anyone care to venture a 4th problem? Black Blade (11/11/02; 22:59:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 89372) Consumers' wallets are wearing out http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/PEstory/TGAM/20021111/RBRIA/Business/business/businessColumnistsHeadline_temp/3/3/5/ Snippit:The fact is that there are still some dark clouds on the horizon, not the least of which is that the economy's most important player appears to be running out of steam. That would be the redoubtable U.S. consumer, whose courageous spending through thick and thin and well beyond his or her means rescued the economy from the jaws of recession. The hope of Mr. Greenspan was that the free-spending consumer could hang on long enough for the stock markets to regain their footing and for businesses to resume spending in a big way. But that no longer appears likely. As corporations continue to cut costs and pour any free capital into debt reduction, signs of consumer fatigue are cropping up everywhere. This has led to gloomy forecasts for autos and housing, the key economic drivers of the past year, and for the crucial Christmas selling season. Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Barry fears this could shape up to be the worst holiday period for major U.S. retailers in more than a decade, for a variety of reasons. These include plunging consumer confidence, slowing growth in real wages and rising joblessness, as corporations continue to hack away at their payrolls.Wage growth "has begun a somewhat precipitous decline over the past seven months," Mr. Barry told clients recently. As the increase in income slows, "its ability to prop up consumer spending will erode." He might also have added soaring debt levels to his list. The Fed reported last week that U.S. consumer borrowing shot up nearly $10-billion (U.S.) in September, compared with a rise of $5.6-billion in August. That brought the total to $1.73-trillion. This doesn't include mortgage debt, which has climbed almost 70 per cent in the past seven years to nearly $5.7-trillion. "We think there's legitimate cause for concern about whether consumers have the wherewithal to carry the load for the economy through these uncertain times," John Hawke, the U.S. comptroller of the currency, told a bankers' gathering last week in San Francisco. "It may be . . . that the consumer has already given about all that the consumer has to give. Indeed, debt load statistics suggest that consumers may have given too much, and that retail customers could be especially vulnerable to an unexpected economic jolt."Black Blade: As I said, the US consumer is tapped out. Blackjack (11/11/02; 22:52:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89371) Gold, China & the US $ http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund111202.html I was intrigued to learn last week that China may move to back its currency with gold. Such a move would certainly help to explain the opening of the gold exchange in China. The Chinese are very astute business people and should never be underestimated. China is, to my mind, the evolving economic powerhouse of the 21st century. In China, the emphasis is on production, not consumption. What a contrast with the United States, which is openly the opposite. The United States unashamedly encourages its own citizens to believe that "spending every last penny" is the patriotic thing to do, to keep the economy going and has effectively exported its own manufacturing capability, thus making it a hostage to external forces. It has also, in recent years, contrived to create a global currency and a system designed to funnel the capital and savings of the rest of the planet directly into its coffers in order to fuel its unending orgy of consumption and enormous consequent balance of payments deficits. They have even succeeded in creating the erroneous belief, in the rest of the world, that their economic welfare is somehow dependant on the continuing well-being of the American consumer. What does the rest of the world get in return? Mountainous piles of paper - dollars printed like confetti, bond, junks bonds, shares, share issues - all effectively a highly degradable heap of IOU's. Can you imagine what will happen when the rest of the world finally wakes up and realizes it's been a victim of the biggest scam in the history of the planet?! Can you imagine what will happen to the US dollar if at the same time China backs its currency with gold?! The consequences will be awesome. Black Blade (11/11/02; 22:51:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 89370) A State of Disequilibrium - Stephen Roach (New York) http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20021111-mon.html#anchor0 Snippit:The lopsided nature of a US-centric global economy is the most outwardly visible sign. In large part, that reflects America's role as the unquestioned engine of global growth since the mid-1990s. Over the 1995 to 2002 interval, US economic growth is estimated to have accounted for fully 64% of the cumulative increase in world GDP (at market exchange rates) – double America's share in the global economy. At work was an extraordinary burst of US domestic demand, with gains averaging 5% per annum in the latter half of the 1990s. By contrast, demand growth in the rest of the world was anemic, averaging just 2% over this same interval. In essence, the rest of the world produced to satisfy the seemingly insatiable demands of US consumers and businesses. Black Blade: This obviously is coming to an end. I find it amusing that the Japanese are trying hard as hey may to weaken the yen and strengthen the U.S. dollar to keep their export driven economy alive and kicking. It will be all for naught as their attempt to stop the fall of the US dollar is futile. Should get rather "interesting". Meanwhile the US consumer is deep in debt with little in savings and is nearly tapped out. In a word – "grim". Sundeck (11/11/02; 22:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 89369) Sirs Draco, Coinguy et al. - JPM and Gold Stocks Can someone who is short physical gold, JPM for example, hedge their gold short position by owning gold stocks? It may be possible under certain conditions.The earnings of gold producers at present, due to the low POG, are strongly leveraged to the gold price. Losses from short covering may be more than offset by gains in the share price of gold producers.Consider the following reasoning:1. Suppose it costs a typical producer $250 per ounce to produce gold. At $320 per ounce, the producer earns $70 per ounce.2. If the gold price doubles, say, to $640 per ounce then, other things being equal, the producer earns $390 per ounce; a rise in earnings of 5.7 times.3. If the producer's shares maintain a constant P:E during the change in POG then the producer's share price will have increased 5.7 times.4. Suppose someone short gold at, say, $280 per ounce has to cover at $640 per ounce (as a worst case). Their loss is $360 per ounce, or about 1.3 times their initial capital outlay.5. However, if they hold shares in a typical producer, their gain is 5.7 times their initial capital outlay.6. Thus, by owning shares to the value of their initial short position, the hedger can easily cover their physical gold exposure, and make a profit, by virtue of leverage in the share price.Problems with this strategy?1. Normally gold borrowed by the speculator would have to be repaid in gold. If the short position is very large, there may not be sufficient gold available to cover at any price. This could be embarrasing. However, if the initial contract allowed for repayment in fiat, or in some other form, then the "insufficient physical" problem might be averted. Such a scenario would be expected to push the POG very high, followed by the gold stocks. 2. The hedger would probably have to have bought the shares progressively over a benign period of low gold price. Attempting to enter the market for shares as the POG is rising would probably send share prices sky high and defeat the purpose of the hedger.3. Others???I would appreciate comments from the oaken table...Humbly yours,Sundeck Blackjack (11/11/02; 22:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 89368) Putin: "World in Mortal Danger" http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/11/12/wput12.xml Islamic radicals are pursuing the systematic annihilation of non-Muslims, President Vladimir Putin claimed yesterday.The Russian leader said at a European Union summit in Brussels that western civilisation faced a mortal threat from Muslim terrorists, and claimed that they had plans to create a "worldwide caliphate". Gold N Rule (11/11/02; 21:57:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89367) Well Put Old Yeller (#89342) I too am tired of being led by liars and thieves into the dens of destruction. The smoke will settle eventually and the naked truth will have to be met! Chris Powell (11/11/02; 21:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 89366) A report on GATA's participation in the New Orleans Investment Conference http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1289 The GATA delegation did more than eat,drink, and be merry. It ate a real lot!To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Aristotle (11/11/02; 21:52:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89365) A correction for R Powell, those were NOT my opening words to Mr. Bill These were:"Mr. Bill, your comments are fair enough taken in isolation"The operative words there are "taken in **isolation**."In the conveyance of information, context is everything (followed closely by presentation to achieve emphasis where needed.) Let's not lose sight of the bigger picture, shall we?Hence, the relevance of the quip you've highlighted sandwiched between the vital introductory remark and the resolution:"...so the lessons learned from mankind in antiquity and from two modern World Wars are not so easily dismissed as you would have them be."Just look at Elwood's 89346 post if you need another example where an out-of-context soundbite not only fails to convey the significance of the overall commentary but is also used as "hard EVIDENCE, Your Honor!" to foster unwarranted tension or pre-trial dismissal by the would-be jurors.When the counterpoint is too weak or ill-conceived to stand on its own, a well-chosen hanging soundbite can be used as a cheap and easy source of leverage and distraction. Put to better uses they can also serve as a springboard to other related or tangential thoughts.What is your goal here, only you can say. My goal if it isn't already obvious is to fraternize with like-minded souls who've chosen to give deeper-than-typical thought to the monetary ways of the world. Despite the protests of Mr. Bill, I don't think that's elitism any more than among guys who've given "deeper-than-typical" interest to sports who gather 'round for Monday Night Football.By God if you don't know what a fumble is, they're gonna tell ya, and if you try to change the channel to ballet or some other footie thing they're gonna thump ya; nothin' personal.Context and presentation. Gotta use the whole tool box or else I might as well be blowing bubbles.Gold. It'll clear that mess right up. --- Ari Pizz (11/11/02; 21:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 89364) silvercollector Your manager is right on.Pizz RobotGuy (11/11/02; 21:43:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 89363) Native North Americans Centuries ago in North America there existed a number of tribes of Native people. We Europeans often referred to them as savages as we had little understanding of their lifestyles and methods. It was often necessary for tribes to battle other tribes for areas of the continent that offered the greatest opportunities for survival. Sounds kind of crazy doesn't it? I mean with agriculture and trade, we could all theoretically get along without the requirement of constant battles. Has anything really changed? Let's pretend we're the Apache's, and they're the Iroqois, and that the oil is our survival. they've got it, we want it, and this is how we're going to settle this thing. Perhaps if we weren't so concerned with the oil, we might be able to forget about the lonely tyrant.Eventually planet earth will arrive at a time where death, devastation and brutality would be unheard of. We would mentally evolve into a race where we will understand that pain is not welcome. There is a very simple saying from a very intelligent man, who knew of the extreme value of this concept. The saying was something like this "Do unto your brothers as you would have them do unto you". Amazing isn't it, such a simple concept, yet we still fail to grasp it. It's so unfortunate that we all won't live to see that day.The other part of me says 'hell yeah', go through with it, I hope it's a massive bloodbath, and the terror and pain gets so deeply instilled into every survivor, that it will be like being punished for doing something wrong. Forget the hydrocarbons, they will eventually run out one day anyway, and then what will the world do? Why don't we advance ourselves to the next level of evolution prematurely and focus whole heartedly on the ideas of renewable energy? Oh, now you're calling me a hippie! I'll tell you why we don't focus whole heartedly on coverting ourselves now, because it takes work and sacrafice, and we're lazy and selfish.I'm sorry, I still don't think it's a good idea.RobotGuy. Blackjack (11/11/02; 21:37:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 89362) Iraq Parliament rejects UN resolution http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A40838-2002Nov11?language=printer CAIRO, Nov. 11 -- Despite the threat of war, Iraqi parliament members urged President Saddam Hussein tonight to reject a new U.N. resolution requiring the country to disarm and submit to intrusive weapons inspections, condemning the document in blistering declarations as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.Meeting in an emergency session at Hussein's behest, parliament members spent more than two hours criticizing the resolution, which the Security Council approved unanimously on Friday. The parliament speaker, Saadoun Hammadi, labeled it "provocative, deceitful and a preamble for war." Others called it "unfair" and a "violation of human rights."Several members, including the head of an influential foreign affairs committee, said the parliament should refuse to endorse the resolution and noted the final decision on whether to accept it rests with Hussein and the supreme ruling body that he presides over, the Revolutionary Command Council.It is unusual, however, for Hussein to overrule the parliament. Its members are all his ardent supporters and its decisions are almost always in lock step with his views. Hussein often refers issues to parliament so he and top officials can say their decisions are based on the will of the Iraqi people.The parliament is expected to continue discussing the resolution Tuesday. Hammadi did not say whether the body would hold a formal vote.Iraq has until Friday to formally accept the terms of the resolution. If it does, Hussein's government then must declare within 30 days all Iraqi programs to develop weapons of mass destruction and provide inspectors unfettered access to any place in the country, including presidential palaces and other sensitive sites.If Hussein does not accept the resolution by Friday, the Bush administration could ask the Security Council to authorize the use of force, or the United States could opt to take unilateral action. The tenor of the comments during the session in Baghdad, broadcast live on an Iraqi satellite television channel, took some political observers in the Arab world by surprise. Arab foreign ministers and diplomats had expressed confidence on Sunday night that Hussein would accept the resolution as the best way to avert a military confrontation with the United States.The ministers and diplomats, gathered for an Arab League meeting in Cairo, said they had received assurances from Iraq's foreign minister, Naji Sabri, and other Iraqi officials that the resolution would be endorsed by Hussein's government. Before the Iraqi parliament session began, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa said he thought Iraq would "cooperate positively" with the new resolution."We were expecting some criticism, but nothing like this," said one Arab diplomat involved in discussions with Sabri over the weekend. "It's difficult to say what Saddam's strategy is."Another official who participated in the Arab League meeting said the tone of the parliament session reflected "classic Saddam strategy.""He's unpredictable," the official said. "You never know what he's going to do until the very last minute, when he actually makes the decision." Draco (11/11/02; 21:29:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89361) silvercollector Yes it is "interesting" to see the JPM spin. What I found intreging was the fact that they are covering gold shares and even forcasting that POG will rise any at all. It is a real shift in position for them as I'm sure they would rather see $250/oz. Infantile logic indeed if this is their new marketing ploy. Perhaps that is giving them too much credit. I'm thinking more of a cornered rabid ally-cat. They will be willing to do whatever it takes.Draco Blackjack (11/11/02; 21:27:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 89360) "We're not going to wait until February to see whether Iraq is co-operating or not.'' http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=351331 President Bush issued a tough new warning to Saddam Hussein yesterday as administration officials said that a war could begin before the end of the year.In a series of Veterans' Day memorial services, Mr Bush said he was ready to take his country to war. Unless President Saddam Hussein fully disarmed, "America will lead a coalition to fully disarm him."I have no greater responsibility than protecting the American people. Should military action become necessary for our own security, I will commit the full force and might of the United States' military, and we will prevail," he said.Colin Powell, the American Secretary of State, told CNN: "We're not going to wait until February to see whether Iraq is co-operating or not.''The Iraqi leader began the process of deciding a formal response to the United Nations Security Council resolution, which calls on his government to provide free and unfettered access to weapons inspectors or else face "serious consequences". Iraq has until Friday to respond. If President Saddam rejects the resolution, Mr Bush is determined to act alone if necessary to punish him with massive military strikes. silvercollector (11/11/02; 21:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89359) Message from my manager today.... "This is really easy to figure out if one looks a little past ones nose. Over the next 10-15 years the baby-boomers acutely hungry to fatten up their portfolio's before hibernation will slowly but steadily begin to acquire a sense of wealth perservation. There will be no stock chasing in 10 years; in fact, it may have already begun.The other issue is resources. America has been on a 25 year tear. It is not debatable that we import more oil today than in the past. We will import more each day looking forward. It will be an uphill battle to maintain parity with any other currency. We have crossed over the peak of everlasting prosperity. We look forward to paying more. America's profit margins will forever diminish. That's not accounting, that's math.The candle that burns twice as bright, burns half as long." The CoinGuy (11/11/02; 21:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89358) Concerning JP Morgan and Gold Stocks http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873193606&p=1012571727108 Comment: I think the real question should be, will they have enough of a capital base left to buy gold and/or gold stocks(being facetious of course). Snippit:JP Morgan Chase and Bank One are to be hit with a $1bn lawsuit alleging they may have breached their fiduciary duties at National Century Financial Enterprises, a troubled healthcare receivables buyer.Snippit:Med Diversified, one of the healthcare providers from which National Century buys receivables, said on Monday that JP Morgan and Bank One, which it said act as trustees to bondholders, may have known of the misuse of funds. It plans to file a lawsuit on Tuesday against JP Morgan, Bank One, the independent directors of the subsidiaries concerned and auditor Deloitte & ToucheBTW, Doug Noland nailed this one to the wall, ahead of time.Been having trouble getting fills on the above mentioned,The CoinGuy Max Rabbitz (11/11/02; 21:02:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 89357) JPM and Gold Stocks http://biz.yahoo.com/c/20021108/i.html?mdg Hmmmm. Lots of initial ratings on gold miners from JPM today. Two neutrals, one underweight, and one overweight. I wonder if "Analyst" McConvey from Goldman Sachs has found a new home yet? silvercollector (11/11/02; 21:00:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89356) I particularly like this line......... ".....short term dollar weakness israising gold and the gold stocks." No JPM, it's more like "...long term dollar death will moonshot gold and the gold stocks." silvercollector (11/11/02; 20:56:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89355) Draco You are biting my friend. JPM is indeed hoping for 335 gold by Q103. That's a 5% increase holy cow.What they are not hoping for is a 30% increase to $400.See the infantile logic of their whacked marketing scam?silvercollector Draco (11/11/02; 19:58:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89354) JPM moving into gold stocks? From Daniel Denning atStrategic InvestmentMonday, November 11, 2002Paris, France***The Fed Takes, The Dollar Gives***Hard Asset Funds Clean Up***Trouble at OHP***More Warfare State NewsCopyright 2002 Agora Publishing The Strategic Investment Weekly Update You may not forward, reprint or post any of the material you read here as itcontains information exclusively provided for the benefitof subscribers to Strategic Investment. However, briefpassages and quotes may be used within the body of otherarticles and reviews, with proper attribution.***Hard Asset Funds Clean UpJ.P. Morgan got on the gold bandwagon last week. It'swidely speculated in the financial community that Morgan is a major seller of gold in the derivatives market. But whoknows...maybe Morgan has seen the light.This week, Morgan initiated coverage on several small goldcompanies. The report said, "short term dollar weakness israising gold and the gold stocks." Morgan forecasts gold at $335/oz in Q1 '03, also citing the possible war in Iraq as a further boost to gold fortunes. Morgan'sfavorites...Glamis Gold (GLG), Meridian Gold (MDG),Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Goldcorp (GG).Morgan focused on North American gold producers, pickingtwo Nevada-based companies, GLG and MDG, and two Canadiancompanies, AEM and GG. Not bad for a money center bankspending the last 10 years selling the daylights out ofgold.**************************Review/Comments: JP Morgan forcasting a rise in the POG and taking an interest in gold stocks !? Sounds to me like they may realize, ironically, that gold stocks may be their only hedge to level out their derivitive positions. I'm sure that there are not enough gold shares combined to completely offset their bad bets, but can you imagine the demand that could create on the stocks?They realize the jig is up. We will soon see them all scamble to cover as much as they can by buying physical and gold shares. Get your popcorn ready, it will be a great show.*******Allow me to add my thanks and gratatude to all who have served our nation. And a special prayer tonight for all those who payed the ultimate price. Draco Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 19:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89353) Lady GratefulForGold's QUESTION !! <;-) GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 16:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89340)Sir Gandalf -- The Contest===Your question about "Runners-up" is a good one !Yes, one may truely feel that all numbers other than the WINNER is a 'runner-up', BUT these "Runners-up" are ONLY the NEXT closest the the WINNER. --- There normally are only two "Runners-up" and as you can see that if the WINNER is in the STACK of prices between $318.9 and $325.1 -- there will be two "Runners-up" --- one on either side of the WINNER ! However, as has happened, IF the WINNER is not "bracketed", there may well be THREE "Runners-up" depending on the correct Settlement Price and Prognostications !! BTW, these RULES are not yet setforth in CONCRETE (sorry, Rich for the simile) BUT, no one had ever ask before ! That must be why we have Ladies here, AY ?<;-) Old Yeller (11/11/02; 19:46:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 89352) Aristotle No,I think I've made myself quite clear.I have noproblem with credit,credit and eventual paybackeither through taxation or profits earned throughinvestment creates our modern world with all it'swonderful technology and conveniences.I'm talking about borrowing in good faith andreneging on your commitments to pay back in kind.We've seen the US do this at least three timesin 70 years,the gold theft and subsequent revaluationof FDR,Nixon breaking the Bretton Woods agreementand keeping the gold in 1971,and the Plaza Accordof 1985 which led directly to the Japanese bubble,the Asian crisis and other assorted "unexpectedevents".Now,through the intense,convulted sleightof hand of Rubin/Greenspan/Clinton/Summers"dream team",we arrive at our current juncture.Whatassets can the US offer the rest of the world forit's 2-7 trillion in net holdings?Name an asset that comes without a thick blanketof debt or a invisible hook of explosive tingedderivatives?Have you seen the reports on the DOW 30 and justhow much debt is on their balance sheetsvis-a-vis tangible assets?America's "greatest" company,GE,is aninpenetratable mass of debt,counter-partyobligations,bubble gum and chicken wire.Does it not bother you that the US can "spend"360 billion USD's on "defense",to threatenand cajole the world into doing it's bidding.What of our collective future,as the US usesirredeemable debt to further advance theirvast lead in military superiority?We all have reasons to fear the US'sgreatest scam in the annals of mankind,even Americans do.Your fine country has been taken over.Ask not who needs a regime change. Liberty Head (11/11/02; 19:23:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89351) Thank You Belgian, Sierra Madre After reading the excellent postings here on this Veterans Day, it is abundantly clear that Iraqi oil won't come cheap. My special thanks to Trapper. Tacitus (11/11/02; 19:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89350) Thank you, Invisible Hand Dear Invisible Hand,Thanks for the interesting question, "Who will bring about the longest term effects, Bush or Saddam Hussein?" Anytime we try to stabilize the world so that economies can grow, we should ask what the long term effects will be. I'm afraid though that sometimes it can lead us to paralysis if we over analyse every possible consequence to everything we do.I think in the long run people will not be blinded to our true motives. We and our government are not perfect by a long shot. However, look at Japan, Italy and Germany. After we crushed them in a terrible war, are we being attacked by terrorists from their country? Did we rape and kill like the old Imperialistic Japanese Government said we would? No. And once the people saw that we were interested in making them strong and free, they worked with us. One of our own "war-mongering" Generals, General MacArthur transformed Japan and had a great love in his heart for their culture and people. I believe if we have to go to war, and I hope we won't, that in the aftermath we will be able to build the same goodwill in Iraq. There are some in the world that interpret every action by our government to be motivated by a desire to subjugate others. Some of us are afraid of the ramifications of military action everytime we see anti-American demonstrations. We fear military action will generate more anti-American sentiment. Yet I think if they see that our objects are to make them free and strong and stable, so that we and the world can be more free, strong and stable, they will come around. So as far as long term consequences, I hope Bush and our nation will bring about the longest term consequences. Why? Because the average Iraqi and mainstream Muslim will know us by our fruits. If we could help turn Iraq into a stable and productive country, that would be the best PR and have the best long term consequences.In the final analysis, I want to see a world in which there is a lot for us to buy with our gold. That world is a world which is not threatened by instability. I believe the UN and America are taking the world in the right direction.Salve,Tacitus Aristotle (11/11/02; 19:11:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89349) Old Yeller, I'll focus on the economics, and in that I think you're stretching You say, "The world cries out for honest money based on real tangible wealth."I think you're mixing apples and oranges. I think the world is indeed crying out for tangible wealth -- based on real tangible wealth. Period. Simply put, they want a material improvement in lifestyle and a secure reserve of purchasing power. However, I think you're reading way too much of your own personal wants into the world's wants when you drag money itself into the equation as the means to that end. Why must they be made the same? Barter is barter, and credit is credit. Ideally, never the twain shall cross. We've been down that road.To be sure, barter is a good wholesome thing. A simple thing. Maybe that's it's primary appeal to some people. Simplicity. You can get your mind around it. It's payment-in-full, tangible value traded for tangible value. Some people can only imagine Gold shining at its brightest when put to heavy use as the universal bartering agent. They'd like to call it money. But that's where the corruption begins. The corruption of tangible Gold and the corruption of barter's payment-in-full go hand-in-hand with the borrowing and lending of money on repayment plans.But let's not be too hasty...Other than its contrast with simple barter, I can't understand why so many seemingly rational people demonize credit wherever Gold advocates gather. Credit is a fine thing! It's an expression of man's belief in his fellow man. It's not counterfeiting in any way, shape or form, and neither is a monetary system that floats along on credit. Sure, it can be abused, but that's not unique. Everything you can think of is subject to abuses and misuse.The true abuse is dressing up credit as though it were Gold and then selling the lie as payment-in-full.Credit is good! Call it credit, call it dollars, call it euros, call it whatever. Call it a monetary accounting system beyond your comprehension, but please don't call it counterfeit and don't demonize one of man's finest acheivements.Gold is good! Call it Gold, call it tangible wealth, call it portable property, call it a hard asset, call it payment-in-full. But please don't call it money and whatever you do don't call it honest money because money implies the ability to make fungible payments and that implies banking and credit which undermines the original (simple fantastic) value Gold can acheive when either offered singularly (purely) as payment on the barrelhead or else accumulated as vital tangible savings against the inevitable dwindling of the monetary unit.Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle Gimli_ (11/11/02; 18:26:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 89348) SJ Kaplan updated his website tonight http://truecontrarian.com/ Monday, November 11, 2002: The overall current outlook for gold and its shares has risen from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH. There is not as much insider selling now as in September when the HUI was in the mid- to upper-130s, and seniors are beginning to outperform relative to juniors, both of which are positive developments. On the negative side, the traders’ commitments for gold are still unencouraging, and the traders’ commitments for currencies which correlate closely with the gold price are at multi-year extremes, indicating the likelihood of a U.S. dollar rally which will likely depress the gold price.Monday, November 11, 2002: The insider stock transaction activity for gold has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, as the intensity of insider selling has noticeably abated, as one would expect given the decline in gold share prices since the middle of September. No important insider buying has yet emerged. R Powell (11/11/02; 18:05:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89347) Aristotle Your reply (89324) to Mr. Bill started with these words, "Fortunately however, not everyone else was born yesterday..." Yet I've heard you complain repeatedly (in response to the charge) that you do not understand why your words often seem patronizing and condescending. You certainly have the knack of giving the impression that you view yourself as all-knowing, that you consider yourself absolutely right and that those of us who disagree "just don't get it". A conviction of belief may be an admirable quality but exuding smugness is not. The ultimate put down of answering a question with the suggestion that a rereading of your words will either supply the answer or the questioner isn't intelligent enough to understand is most infuriating. I have nothing to add to the discussion between you and Mr. Bill but suggest you may want to examine the attitude you often convey in most of your offerings. I mean no disrespect but suggest you may want to converse in a like manner. Regards, Rich (aka, the creature from the dark side) Elwood (11/11/02; 17:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89346) Aristotle (11/11/02; 13:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89324) From Part 3:"The war against Iraq, then, could be an opportunity for new economic development."Like Mr. Bill said, "Poppycock."Delusions of grandeur are still delusions. Pity the poor saps on both sides who are about to give their lives in the interests of economic development. Chris Powell (11/11/02; 17:46:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 89345) A few years ago GATA was nuts.... http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1288 ... Now it's almost conventional wisdom:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1288To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Mr. Bill (11/11/02; 17:33:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 89344) @Aristotle msg#: 89324 I take it from your reply that you must have an advanced degree in sheep herding. It is the only way that I can find to explain your belief that the survival of 6 billion people on this planet is dependent on Bush being able to play king for a day. But you are quite right is saying that lessons have been learned. The only problem is that lessons have only made the elite more cunning and dangerous. The general populace only learns what the TV guy tells them. And their kids get fooled in school.So when I read a piece of elitist propaganda, I can see it for what it is. It is just a way for them try to appear to be use to the rest of us. But do we really need kings and queens and those others bent on glory? The elite do not serve for "the good of mankind". They have no use for mankind. The lining of their pockets from the slow and the convinced is what really makes their day. And many of them have been given many talents and yet they do not seem to comprehend the concept of what a shepherd really is.Gold. I have lots. Genoo (11/11/02; 17:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89343) GratefulForGold #89337 There is an eloquence in the manner in which you phrase your appreciation. Old Yeller (11/11/02; 17:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89342) Tactitus,I did not say Americans are terrorists I clearly stated who the culprit really is.Furthermore,I would suggest that you read some history on the CIAand other US government sponsored alphabet organizations.Ask the people of Indonesia,Belgian Congo,the Phillipines,Iran,Chile,El Salvador,Guatamala,Colombia,Argentina,Angola,etc.etc.,who the real terrorists are.Have you heard of The School of the Americas?How about Operation Chaos,when the Americangovernment waged a covert war on their own people? All of this is made possible by printing upmoney out of thin air,based on confidence.I am really starting to wonder just whatreally is behind this "full faith andcredit" of the US government.The US net external debt(money owned to foreigncreditors,less assets)is anywhere from2 Trillion to 7 trillion,no one reallyknows.If the US were to settle their trade deficits in gold,as before The Fed attached itself the world's jugularvein,the gold "reserve",if in fact,it actually exists,would last about two months.Who is responsible for high oil prices?Without the blown out US demand,paid for withfunny money,there would be a glut of oil.Bear in mind,however,oil demand constantlyincreases as reserves fall.The world isrunning out of oil,that is why Iraq mustbe subjugated and a US "Shah of Iran" stylelackie installed.Today is a very significant day,the day weremember those who fell defending freedom.I'm tired of wars of deception,which is whatthis current "war"is all about.War that is madepossible by saddling the American peoplewith yet more debt.Debt that must either be defaultedon,inflated away,or forgiven using Mafia styleprotection techniquesThe world cries out for honest money basedon real tangible wealth,the Federal ReserveNote does NOT qualify for this role.The American people should begin to examine theirrole in this tragic deception.Everyone loves a party,but this one has gone on far too long.The US has beenstolen away from the people,by thieves,liars andmurderers. The Invisible Hand (11/11/02; 16:56:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 89341) @Tacitus Was it not you who gladly referred to Henry Hazlitt?If not, this is his lesson: "The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but a the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups."Whose policy has more long term effects? Saddam's or Bush (and his predecessors)'s? GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 16:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 89340) Sir Gandalf -- The Contest This being my first Contest participation, may I inquire about the term "runners-up?" Perhaps I missed the information, but I can't tell how many runners-up there will be(to receive the silver eagles). Possibly all who submitted a losing entry are runners-up? heh. :O)Thank you for all your efforts in making this Contest fun! mikal (11/11/02; 16:51:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89339) @tacitus "Since nobody believes we are trying to turn Iraq into the 51st state, we and the world can stop worrying about that." On the contrary, those supporting war are currently a minority, and barring another staged 911, will remain so. Many prominent people believe Iraqi oil is a major objective, including a great many ousted military officers who opposed Clinton and Bush policies publicly. Cavan Man (11/11/02; 16:50:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89338) With all Due respect.... .....a "clear thinking" contextual discussion with Sir Tacitus cannot be advanced. (Reminds me of a certain gentleman from NE of Italian persuasion).Or, put it simply: If I see one more tiny housewife with one small child driving a HUGE Suburban bedecked in American flags I am going to....... GratefulForGold (11/11/02; 16:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 89337) Veterans I would like to add my deepest gratitude to each of you who has "used" part of your life's energies in helping to make the USA the place it is today. While it is far from perfect and there are many things I dislike, you are not to blame for that. I respect the strength, courage and sacrifice of each of you.If any of you are Viet Nam Veterans, I would like to give you my heartfelt appreciation. You are my generation – my brothers, my classmates, my friends, my lovers – and I feel a deep sorrow for your sacrifices from which so many of you have never recovered. All wars produce scars but I feel yours were of the mind, heart and spirit far more. Viet Nam is a blight upon our government and I am so sorry you heroes did not have better leadership, respect and recognition. Not to mention better treatment for your invisible wounds. It was the times in which we lived.I only pray that our future veterans’ sacrifices are not in vain and Iraq or any other conflict/war does not destroy a generation of young, bright, vital lives.If war is necessary, it must be fought. But I pray our motives are clear, honest and pure (assuming such things are possible with "war"). May God help us all. mikal (11/11/02; 16:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 89336) @Tacitus How is Saddam "messing with the world economy and world peace"? According to who and what documented factual evidence? And Bush, based on what evidence do you conclude he wishes the best for the "world and gold"? Tacitus (11/11/02; 16:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89335) Americans are Terrorists?! Dear Old Yeller,Perhaps we are counterfeiters, one could make that argument. So for the sake of argument let me grant you that premise. All the same, how can you make a moral equivalency between counterfeiting and taking thousands of civilian lives? Furthermore, we do not directly target civilians, terrorists do. Again, there is no moral equivalency. If you argue it doesn't matter whether they are killed intentionally or unintentionally, I would say such reasoning would prevent us from ever fighting a war in self defense. There would still be a Hitler and not a Jew or Christian left in this world. And worst of all for all of us Gold lovers, Hitler or his successor would have all the gold. We would be stuck with all the counterfeited confetti!!!So hurrah for the war on Terror and for private Gold ownership.salve,Tacitus Tacitus (11/11/02; 16:22:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 89334) American Foriegn Policy Dear RobotGuy,I can't keep up on all that has been written in this Forum about foreign policy. A lot has been written recently in regard to why we are so interested in Iraq. I find the President's explanation quite clear. Everybody is interested in his motives. Only he knows what those are. I tend to trust him but let's look at some of the arguments. Some say we are only interested in oil. I say we should be interested in oil, everybody and every nation. Without it, all shuts down and not one of us on this forum will have enough gold to pay for enough oil to get us through this winter. No crime in being concerned about oil. The crime would be in trying to take possession of it and sell at a big profit. Since nobody believes we are trying to turn Iraq into the 51st state, we and the world can stop worrying about that. What is the Presidents argument? He would probably put it this way: If we tolerate Saddam, we only encourage other tyrants. We can not allow the U.N. to be made a fool of. If we do, then we will even have to take more on than we already have to as a nation. And as far as leaving "well enough alone", it is bad management to leave the oil supply of the world so vulnerable. Remember what he did to the oil fields of Kuwait? Stability is good for the world economy. And for all you peace lovers, I love peace too. But as President Reagan said, "Peace through strength". The best bet for peace is to make it clear this time (the 16th time?), that we mean business. The vote from Congress and the unanimous vote from the UN security council does exactly that. Even Saddam Hussein will see I am not bluffing. This is the best bet for peace. And if he calls my "bluff", he will find that to be a big mistake. All the same, after the war resulting from Saddam's mistake, we as a world could avoid many other wars because tyrants would think twice and then some before messing with the world economy and world peace. It is because I am for peace that I have with the help of Congress and the UN drawn a line in the sand. I have moved the troops to the MidEast not because I want a war but because I want Saddam to know that this time we mean business. The troops are there exactly because it gives us our best chance for peace.And if some of you think I would throw away young American lives just to avenge the attempt on my Father's life, you obviously do not know me.This is what I think our president has been trying to say in so many words. My hope is that somebody will get the nerve to take Saddam and his Sons into custody and over through the government. If it were to happen this would be the greatest political coupe of the President and UN ever. Some of us might disagree with his reasoning but let's stop imputing such wicked motives to the man. He does genuinely care about the world, this country, our economy, and our Gold.Salve, Tacitus Blackjack (11/11/02; 16:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 89333) What happens when a RE bubble bursts http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,153807,00.html TOKYO - Senior manager Kanji Ito bought his modest two-bedroom Tokyo apartment for 100 million yen (S$1.4 million) in the 1980s. Last year, it was valued at a mere 50 million yen. His loss from asset deflation is mirrored by home buyers who bought properties before 1990. According to a White Paper on the economy released by economic czar Heizo Takenaka this week, such losses, including those sustained by companies, have amounted to 1.16 quadrillion yen (S$17 trillion) since the burst of the 1990 bubble.The amount is twice the size of the country's gross domestic product.For people like Mr Ito, it has meant paying a higher monthly amount as banks reconfigure their loans to take in the lower value of the properties.Some even had to take out a second mortgage when banks required them to top-up their loans.The situation is made worse as it comes at a time of declining income._____________________Giddyup Gold Arcticfox (11/11/02; 15:51:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 89332) Kaplan... http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/ProspectorAssetManagement/1036957118.php Snip...While, in general, the precious metals markets showed modest gains in value last week, news events, actions by the Federal Reserve Board and the United Nations have changed the internal dynamics of the precious metals markets. The probabilities for a robust rally in the gold market have now increased, and the chances of us seeing significantly lower prices have greatly lessened.The decision by the Federal Reserve Board to drop short-term interest rates by a surprising ˝% was certainly quite significant for the gold market. Interest rates are now at their lowest rate since July of 1961. This was the 12th consecutive mandated decline in interest rates in this cycle, and this recent action was the first taken all year. I fail to understand why this august body decided to cut interest rates, as their past 11 actions, totaling 475 basis points, has accomplished very little to stimulate the economy or to reinvigorate the stock markets. As an example, although the US Central Bank has been historically stimulative the past two years, the S&P's, a wide measure of the equities markets, has fallen 40%. Old Yeller (11/11/02; 15:34:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 89331) Aristotle Lessons on morality and justification forkilling innocents cannot be given by acounterfeiter.The US "empire"is a sham,built on debtand exploitation,fostered by theoutrageously biased and criminalBretton Woods Agreement.The Federal Reserve Note is the real terrorist. R Powell (11/11/02; 15:11:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 89330) Contest // Remembrance If my math is correct, a December closing price tomorrow of $5991.60 will make Invisible Hand and Clint H co-winners. Actually, this might be somewhat shocking to the world financial system so I'm hoping for a less disruptive close of $543.20. I believe this would put the golden prize in the most deserving paws of the one who has worked so steadfastly to coordinate our fun. Thanks to the Wizard Thanks also to all those who saved all the private Ryans of the past. May we never forget but would that the need for such could fade from memory. Rich RobotGuy (11/11/02; 14:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 89329) Excuse me for being ignorant, but I'm still not sure exactly what is happening here. Bush said "February" almost a year ago. Troops are on their way and have been for quite some time. The airport base in Qatar has undergone massive enhancements to service a possible military strike. Note the word 'possible' to be entirely obsolete. I do not support the meaningless casualties that have been directed and applauded by Saddam, and I think it's inherently obvious that the strike will happen. My curiosity is to know exactly what it is that Makes Mr. Bush feel as though he must initiate a possible unilateral strike. I understand that Saddam encourages and funds terrorist activity, and that he is not a sweet wonderful person, and terrorist activities in the United States could somehow be linked to him. Saddam could never launch a massive attack on the United States, he simply does not have the arsenal or technology. Chemical weapons? Sure Saddam has chemical weapons, we know that from all the veterans of the gulf war that are currently suffering various ailments as a result of exposure to these horrible devices. The only difficulty for Saddam is how to convey these terrible devices to the American people. It would be much easier for him to hurt Americans if they went over there, because he has no long range capabilities. I just keep hearing Bush say "protect the American people", but it seems so ironic to me. I'm sorry guys, I don't think this one is a good idea. Aristotle (11/11/02; 14:42:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 89328) Belgian 89319 I toss my hat skyward in celebration of your clear presentation of an otherwise difficult concept. The simple use of your coke bottle, sugar, and rice examples were masterly.Gold. Gold. Gold. --- Ari Waverider (11/11/02; 14:36:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 89327) VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html Thanks BB :) Ten Bears (11/11/02; 14:31:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89326) Veterans Day A salute to the veterans who post here. Our active duty may be behind us, but thanks to this forum we may exchange ideas and pass on information. The pen (internet) may prove to be more powerful than all the arms of war. A salute also to individual freedom and the Bill of Rights for which we served and still vigorously support. Belgian (11/11/02; 14:07:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 89325) W. Duisenberg - ECB Gold, was / is / and remains an *** IMPORTANT ***, monetary asset/reserve ! Physical Gold in possession, stashed in your vault, has the explicit meaning of being a "RESERVE".A reserve is a "reliable" valuable with a fluctuating price.Few, do grasp the intrinsic meaning of "reserve" and their perception on how valuable or not this reserve is, can easely be altered with the pricing of that reliable valuable reserve.Psychological effect of "the price" on anything, valuable or worthless. Give something very valuable a low price and 99% of the public loses that perceptive notion of valuable and ignores that valuable.Give something worthless a high price and 99% of the general public does percept this at least as semi-valuable or almost valuable and is therefore desired.That's WHY and HOW, POG has been managed since its valuation has been stopped and reversed in 1980.Compare those past 21 years of POG-management with the inverse management on paper pricings, where we landed in 2000 at obscene over-valuations ! The brotherhood, you know ! Don't sell this common sense to those who still possess or trade stocks. You risk some brutality with this.For the same reason, IRs are at a 41 years low. Bond-pricing ! And don't believe all these nonsenses that low / lower IRs have any effect on real economic expansion.I do repeat : nonsense ! Too long to explain in detail, why...but simply have a look at Numero Duo, Japan !But these low/lower IRs are another tool in the battle of *perceptual*, confetti-confidence, more and more needed than ever. So many lies and half thruths are constantly repeated, over and over again, without any reaction possible. This is not only happening on the financial aspect of our life but also on many other aspects. Totalirism ! That's it for today. I enjoyed writing this as usual. Aristotle (11/11/02; 13:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 89324) Mr. Bill, your comments are fair enough taken in isolation http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ18Ak02.html Fortunately however, not everyone else was born yesterday, and so the lessons learned from mankind in antiquity and from two modern World Wars are not so easily dismissed as you would have them be.The survival of 6 billion people, striving for the best possible terms, is a delicate business that you should strive to see for what it is.That Sisci article served as an excellent and accessible introduction to the realities and delicacies of dynamic balance between sovereignty and survival (each as it applies at all levels -- individual to group.)Now, why don't you borrow one of those spare pairs of Perle's undies that you've told us about and give the series a more open-minded read. If that's asking too much, then I'll walk away with one word of enduring advice...Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle Old Yeller (11/11/02; 13:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 89323) Stealing Gold http://skybluemonthly.freeservers.com/sbm/sbm00m.htm "After an economic collapse,governments alwayshave two choices,(1)lower interest rates,(2)print money."Or if you are totally morally bankrupt(3)starta war,especially when it will bail out yourfriends in the oil,arms and banking industries.Mr.Bill,bravo.Please keep an eye out for Mr. Hand. Black Blade (11/11/02; 13:45:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89322) UK says gold sales were a success http://www.mips1.net/MGLdn.nsf/Current/8525690B0032142042256C6C002F4FC5?OpenDocument Snippit: LONDON - The UK Treasury is brushing aside all criticism of the way it auctioned off more than half of Britain's gold reserves, a move that provoked protests from the World Gold Council, the producers’ organisation, and the governments of some African gold-producing countries. In an internal review of the sale process which ended in March this year, just published, the Treasury pats itself on the back for a job well done. The review insists the UK received a good price for its gold and defends the way the precious metal was disposed of through well-publicised auctions. It suggests that covert sales might have had a bigger negative impact on the gold price. The review implies suggestions that the UK sold its gold too cheaply are wide of the mark. It says the weighted average price achieved was US$274.92 an ounce over the course of the auction compared with the weighted average London "Fix" price of $274.17, some 17 cents or 0.3 percent better.Black Blade: And what a stellar success it was too. Only about $45 less an ounce than now. I can hardly contain myself. I haven't heard this good a tall tale for awhile. Meanwhile the lions share of that gold is now sitting in other countries central banks. The Swiss avoided the "Dutch Auction" method and achieved a much better return. Politicians never cease to amaze with the phoney baloney stories that they spew out for public consumption. Old Yeller (11/11/02; 13:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 89321) And they tell us gold is a losing investment... http://www.buycoin.com/images/content/reports/chart1.gif Won't they don't tell us.They also don't tell us that gold preventsthem from starting wars.Too bad that Chevy has already appropriatedthe song,"Like A Rock".I can think of a product that suitsthe song much better. sector (11/11/02; 13:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 89320) BIS Gold Derivatives Rose from $ 231Billion to $279 Billion This 21% hike was in spite of stated hedgebook closures... ...by Barrick, Newmont and Anglogold.Sonn we get the forwards and options data which will tell a tale indeed.It's more central bank gold loans to drain the treasuries of the cabal. Belgian (11/11/02; 13:23:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 89319) Support of a currency (Hipplebeck/SM) Any currency is worth what its purchasing power says it is !A US$ has a thousand different values (prices), because its purchasing power (powers) are so different in places (and time). Take a trip around the world and buy a standard bottle of coke under the same circumstances. How many different prices, will you encounter, for the same identical (standard) product, coke, with the same printed dollar confetti !? Confusing, isn't it ?Therefore, there must be a thousand different reasons why any currency is strong or weak, depending on who is judging that US$ and where or when. A US dollar is valued in a different purchasing power by thousand different producers of the same (identical) product. I agree it is a rather unusual approach towards any currency and its intrinsic worth or perceived purchasing power. Normally, price-differences are blamed on the product/service itself. But vieuwing it the other way around is shifting some light on the complexity of the whole currency system as such.BUT....Wherever you go on this globe, one ounce of refined 0,999 Gold will be exchangable for exactly the same amount of dollar-confetti at the same moment ! Yes, only Gold and the same quality of oil. Isn't that remarkable ? This can't be said for, identical, rice, coffee, grain, etc...1 Kg rice/sugar bought in Thailand will cost less dollars than the same rice/sugar bought in India. W're talking about the same rice/sugar paid for with the same units of US dollar.This to illustrate that any "monetary" policy is a very complicated and extensive, all-embracing, excercise in fiat management/promotion/support. And the above babylonian entanglement on the multiple perceptive value on each and every currency, brings us ALL, automatically back to the, eternal, VALUATION of that one and only, ounce of Gold, anywhere, anytime !HE/SHE WHO HAS THE GOLD, DECIDES WHAT YOUR PAPER IS WORTH !Pré 1971, 1 ounce 0,999 Gold, was equivalent to 34 notes of 1 US dollar. But only an infinitesimal fraction of all these dollars could be exchanged for the available Gold. Therefore it was decided that from then on, paper-money was no more and got its status of "confetti". Wich should have been done already long before 1971 for the simple reason that there wasn't enough Gold to redeem each and every packet of 34$ with one ounce.In what followed, unofficially, from before 1971 and officially from 1971 onwards, you have the answer on : How do they support the US$ being the globe's reserve currency as to wich all other currencies are to be aligned.As long as a ridiculous amount of dollar-paper is needed to obtain one ounce of refined Gold, that paper is to be perceived/percepted as STRONG ! And again on one condition that not too many people doubt about this (falsified) paper-strength and therefore don't take up physical Gold in possession ! Voila, that's how they do it ! A monetary policy (and many other policies-tricks) that give universal evidence that very little paper is needed to obtain the ultimate standard of money (Gold). Under the chapter of monetary policy, than fall automatically the mastering of the public confidence in the printed confetti. And on this, I don't think that much explanation is necessary on how this false-misleading, confidence is obtained ?The war on oil is to be regarded as an element into American monetary policy. The POO could unsettle/unmask the confidence in the purchasing power (intrinsic worth) of the US$ (still the reserve currency) and is therefore declared a state enemy (the POO-enemy) !All those who are making their living under the umbrella of the financial brotherhood in collusion with the political/economical, rulers ...have to do their job of confetti-confidence-building. Otherwise, y're out !Westerners do feel comfortable, at present (!!!), with the ongoing status quo. But as Another and Sinclair, already signaled, Easterners do think/feel/act, very differently on the relationship between paper and Gold !These two forces, west and east, will break the paper's back at a certain conjunction, with the Golden straw !Monetary policies in the future will drastically be simplified around the axis of FREE GOLD.And honor to who honor should be adressed...it is only at M. kosares's business, here, that this is discussed ! Thanks again, honorable host ! Mr. Bill (11/11/02; 12:55:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 89318) @Aristotle msg#: 89241- poppycock I am glad to see that you have taken up the gauntlet. But I am less than impressed with your attempts on the messenger's life. After all, how could anyone hate the average naďve American? The article contains drivel on so many levels that it is hard to know where to begin. The main premise seems to be that if you have the means then the end is justified. So the US, because "it is the strongest, everybody knows it, and no nation in its right mind can challenge it", has a right to control the world. Somehow I think that a lot of people on this planet might disagree with that conclusion. The author, right from the opening paragraph, seems to believe in the divine right of king George to pursue empire.snipUnilaterally, driven by the selfish pursuit of its national interests, the US is said to be willing to step on anybody's head to keep and protect its primacy in the world. But even if this blunt analysis is accurate, this in the end amounts to a normal imperial policy.endsnipBut then the author would have us believe that the US agonizes over the wearing of this mantle.snipThe United States, though also an empire, can't bring itself to adopt the Roman ways. It can't stand other people's hatred and even resents the fact that its foreign policy is labeled "hegemonistic".endsnipNow while this may be true of the lowly citizen, it does not apply to the leadership. The likes of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle lose no sleep over being loved. They revel in the thought of war. It is rumored that Perle carries a change of underwear because sometimes he gets so excited thinking about the bombing, that he wets himself.snipThe overlord, the hegemon, would impose its lead only by the use of force, while the wang, the righteous king, would lead by virtue, by what in modern terms we could define as persuasion. endsnipLead by persuasion? Somehow the dropping of bombs and sending in 200,000 persuaders seems like a little excessive persuasion. Now all of these illusions about a benevolent US spreading democracy and capitalism around the world may exist at the common folk level, but the ruling elite have no such illusions. They are driven by power and goaded on by greed, and they will never have enough.So it is time to awaken, and realize that you are being had. Because once they have beaten fascism, communism and terrorism, the only thing left to eliminate will be individualism.And at that point in time, waving a flag just is not going to cut it. Mr Gresham (11/11/02; 12:52:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89317) Sir Trapper This station is signing off (computer shutdown -- it's all I could think of in the moment after reading you) for one hour in respect to you and your fellows. I know that you took that one for me.Thank you. And that's a lifetime "thanks", too. TownCrier (11/11/02; 12:24:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89316) It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas (especially at the URL below) http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html Give the gift of gold -- the unique gift that keeps on giving . . . year after year.It is never too soon to take care of business, especially when it comes to the right treatment for that special someone. Call Marie (ext.106) for helpful insights and assistance as you navigate the tricky world of women's fashions and taste.Why pay sales tax, jewlery store mark-ups, and fight the crowded malls when you don't have to? Get in the holiday spirit and STAY in the holiday spirit. It's easy. Call Marie, Santa's favorite elf.(I'm sure to catch flack for that one, so call her and distract her. Please?) 1-800-869-5115R. Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 12:20:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 89315) TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!! FINAL "OFFICIAL" LISTINGS of Entries !GOOD LUCK ALL --- as we await tomorrows GC2Z SETTLEMENT PriceThe December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.511/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.311/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.211/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3 11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.611/11/02 was $321.6 - $0.1 High = $322.1 and Low = $320.1 (looks as if Sir Nobel1 is the present "KING of the HILL" !! GOOD LUCK !<;-) ====ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values ! $$$$ ?X? $$$$ Aristotle (11/11/02; 11:56:34MT - msg#: 89311*****LOVE IT !! <;-)$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734$$$$ 332.0 $$$$ Houston (11/11/02; 10:13:17MT - msg#: 89290$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743$$$$ 326.4 $$$$ Aureo Speedwagon (11/10/02; 20:19:15MT - msg#: 89216$$$$ 326.3 $$$$ Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:45:32MT - msg#: 89221$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Prometheus (11/10/02; 11:50:11MT - msg#: 89194$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ goldquest (11/11/02; 10:23:52MT - msg#: 89293$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063--$$$$ 324.7 ****for Sir Skydog as it is tough to keep a Skydog "down" !<;-)--$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Time For GOLD (11/11/02; 11:45:16MT - msg#: 89305$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/02; 09:27:27MT - msg#: 89191$$$$ 324.3 $$$$ RobotGuy (11/11/02; 11:06:37MT - msg#: 89297$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Shermag (11/09/02; 19:13:41MT - msg#: 89168$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ Neubie (11/11/02; 11:06:40MT - msg#: 89298$$$$ 324.0 $$$$ otish mountain (11/11/02; 10:10:49MT - msg#: 89289$$$$ 323.9 $$$$ Blackjack (11/10/02; 23:48:07MT - msg#: 89246$$$$ 323.8 $$$$ The CoinGuy (11/10/02; 22:43:43MT - msg#: 89238$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ Electrum (11/10/02; 14:55:29MT - msg#: 89201$$$$ 323.5 $$$$ makcumka (11/11/02; 09:59:05MT - msg#: 89287$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730$$$$ 323.3 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (11/11/02; 09:03:23MT - msg#: 89271$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908$$$$ 323.1 $$$$ Scarab (11/10/02; 17:19:48MT - msg#: 89205$$$$ 323.0 $$$$ jlfletc (11/11/02; 09:58:35MT - msg#: 89286$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764$$$$ 322.8 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (11/10/02; 12:46:40MT - msg#: 89198$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ Gimli_ (11/11/02; 08:12:06MT - msg#: 89268$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020$$$$ 322.4 $$$$ ManAurum (11/09/02; 22:03:13MT - msg#: 89177$$$$ 322.3 $$$$ Boilermaker (11/11/02; 04:01:13MT - msg#: 89261$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767$$$$ 322.0 $$$$ Just waking up (11/10/02; 15:56:20MT - msg#: 89202$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ Yellow Metal (11/10/02; 05:49:21MT - msg#: 89185$$$$ 321.8 $$$$ Ole Man (11/10/02; 20:38:04MT - msg#: 89219$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ mikal (11/10/02; 23:29:53MT - msg#: 89244$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ timbervision (11/10/02; 23:46:03MT - msg#: 89245$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763$$$$ 321.1 $$$$ Black Blade (11/10/02; 23:28:26MT - msg#: 89243$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892$$$$ 320.7 $$$$ seagull (11/09/02; 21:47:22MT - msg#: 89176$$$$ 320.6 $$$$ Gold N Rule (11/10/02; 21:59:18MT - msg#: 89228$$$$ 320.5 $$$$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Waverider (11/11/02; 00:24:24MT - msg#: 89250$$$$ 320.3 $$$$ Yukon (11/10/02; 20:11:26MT - msg#: 89214$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906$$$$ 320.1 $$$$ goldenboy (11/11/02; 09:14:33MT - msg#: 89275$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ harryo (11/10/02; 21:50:09MT - msg#: 89226$$$$ 319.6 $$$$ Genoo (11/11/02; 08:58:15MT - msg#: 89270$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839$$$$ 319.3 $$$$ canamami (11/11/02; 09:40:42MT - msg#: 89279$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748$$$$ 319,1 $$$$ Trurl (11/10/02; 20:19:57MT - msg#: 89217LATE and WITHOUT a Rule 7 Paragraph $319.00 Pilgrims Gold (11/11/02; 12:01:55MT - msg#: 89312I too was a member of the Procrastinators of America Club, but ---<;-)$$$$ 318.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (11/10/02; 20:17:16MT - msg#: 89215$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ BILLYG (11/10/02; 21:04:59MT - msg#: 89222$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803?*?* 316.7 Rule 7 nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843$$$$ 316.2 $$$$ SWEET 16 (11/10/02; 20:36:10MT - msg#: 89218$$$$ 315.6 $$$$ silvercollector (11/10/02; 06:58:06MT - msg#: 89188$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ Christian (11/10/02; 06:46:53MT - msg#: 89187$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883---THE RULES --1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November. 3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !(Such as $543.2) 4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ****** as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED! -- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"----THE PRIZES !! To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December ‘02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!! Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier -- http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !-----<;-) Skydog (11/11/02; 12:09:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89314) If I'm not too late... how about $$$$$ $324.5 $$$$$? Pilgrims Gold (11/11/02; 12:03:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 89313) NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! Too Late! Pilgrims Gold (11/11/02; 12:01:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 89312) ********** $319.00 ************ BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE PICKED IT! Aristotle (11/11/02; 11:56:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89311) $$$$ ?X? $$$$ Buying Gold now is not like buying it in the 1960's for several reasons, but primarily Gold is a much better value today with an upside potential that is far more imminent now than it was then.Fundamentally Gold's value was capped back then by the structure of the international monetary system based on the Gold Standard of Bretton Woods. Convertibility in the framework of a modern banking system succeeds only in subordinating the hard asset to the nominal monetary unit as I've previously detailed. That subordination lasts until the strains on the system reach the inevitable breaking point. In the 1960's, this breaking point could be vaguely foreseen, but there was no clear indication that Gold would subsequently emerge completely free from it's entanglements with the banking system.It didn't. That's how it's possible that we've got Gold prices today which are ONLY $300ish.Fortunately, the greater monetary minds have used the learning experience of the last century to recognize the points of instability and non-sustainablility, and over the past three decades have slowly but surely crafted a structure that will unencumber Gold's value from the everlasting downdraft of bank money.We eagerly await the first primary phase shift that is in sight now, but wasn't in the 1960's. Ka-POW!Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 11:53:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89310) ATTENTION Sir Skydog --- PREVIOUSLY taken Guess !!! Skydog (11/11/02; 11:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89306)$$$$$ 324.1 $$$$$==Please TRY AGAIN !!<;-) slingshot (11/11/02; 11:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 89309) VETERANS DAY A Day To Remember I just ran the STAR SPANGLED BANNER up. Today I will remember those have served in the military and the reasons why they went to war. Over the years I was fortunate to talk to those who served in WWII, Korea,Vietnam, and Desert Storm. Pearl Harbor survivor, Indianapolis survivor,Inchon Vet,A.V.G Flying Tiger, Vietnam (Khie Shan) survivor,and Desert storm.I have listen to their stories with interest.I have seen their wounds from the ravages of war, no words can describe my feelings.To those who went in HARMS WAY a special THANK YOU and WELCOME HOME.I lift my glass of cheer in your HONOR.Job Well Done. My Brothers.Slingshot------------<> Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 11:49:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89308) <;-) Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock !!! The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.511/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.311/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.211/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3 11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.611/11/02 was $321.6 - $0.1 High = $322.1 and Low = $320.1 It looks as if Sir Noble1 is the present "KING of the HILL" !! GOOD LUCK !<;-) makcumka (11/11/02; 11:49:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 89307) @ Black Blade, msg #89262 Interesting info. The $ - rouble excange rate now is around 32 roubles/$. So, 25 roubles = 1/10 oz, 1 oz = 250 roubles = $320 in gold weight. Comes out to .78/$1. Looking at the face coin value, 250 roubles (1 ounce worth) = $50 (1 ounce). Comes out to 5/$1. Either way, nowhere near 32/$1 ratio.Same with silver, 2 roubles = 1/2 oz, 4 roubles = 1 oz = $4.50. 0.89/$1 ration. Face value, 4 roubles - $1. 4/$1 ratio. Just wondering if this had any relevance. Maybe, Putin is establishing his gold standard. I will definitely find out what these coins are going for. If it is close to face value, it is an outstanding buying opportunity. Skydog (11/11/02; 11:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89306) $$$$$ 324.1 $$$$$ Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's?IMVHO...yes! Like Goldquest, I too completed my second tour in "Nam" in the late sixties only to return to an America who's very fabric was being torn apart with civil unrest. Unlike the 60's, however, the cause for the civil unrest we are yet to see will be driven by the breakdown in our society and not war. However, the end result for gold will be the same as it did in the 70's. In other words..."To da moon Alice!!!"Regards...Skydog Time For GOLD (11/11/02; 11:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89305) $$$$324.50$$$$ (Repost as the other price was already taken)Is buying gold now like buying it at $35 an ounce in the late 1960's?Yes, there are many similarities. One of the guides to predicting the price of gold that I follow is the performance of the gold stocks as a leading indicator. Also I look at the relative performances of the Dow, the US$ and the gold price. When taking a look at the late 60s/early 70s I see a particularly strong correlation to today's markets with the 1972-1974 period, especially from May to July of 1973. This period is strikingly similar to the 2 month period that began in late May of this year. In both cases the gold price pulled back even as the Dow continued to grind lower and the US$ plunged. The peak in the HUI that occurred in late May of this year lines up almost perfectly with the peak in the Barrons Gold Mining Index that occurred in early July of 1973. The difference is that when the HUI peaked earlier this year it was well ahead of where the BGMI was at its July 1973 peak. The HUI outperformed the BGMI during 2000-2002 considering that the surge in gold stock prices between January 1972 and July 1973 was accompanied by a 150% increase in the gold price whereas the surge in gold stock prices between November 2000 and May 2002 was accompanied by only a 30% increase in the gold price. After the recent Fall correction, the HUI is now about even with where the Barrons Gold Mining Index was at a similar stage in the 1972-1974 bull market. Based on this relationship, the BGMI portends an imminent rally for gold stocks and gold. I chose $324.30 as my guess. But I have to agree with Richard Russel's recent comment that he sees the DOW and gold ratio crossing at $3,000. I see this as a very big possibility especially viewing the differences between now and the late 60s/early 70s. Especially now that there is such a large gold short, huge derivitive position by several of the major banks and an enormous national debt that spell monetary and price inflationion the pipeline! Gandalf the White (11/11/02; 11:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89302) Question to the T. C. --- <;-) Having only a FEW thing to do -- I was looking at the picture that you posted in message # 89300 !!IF my eyes do not deceive me -- that "Chest" could not begin to support or hold those contents UNLESS it is made totally of "Kryptonite" !! At the least the LOCK is two to three inches wide and the chest must be 12" x 24" x12" in size !! THEREFORE the contents would weigh OVER ONE TON !!and one would need a FORKLIFT to move it !Please tell me that I am DREAMING !!<;-) RobotGuy (11/11/02; 11:31:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 89301) Gandalf, your unending enthusiasm is one very big reason why this forum is so successful. Thank-you for all of your hard work.Thank-you Centennial precious metals for your constant sacrafices, and inspiration. I don't know how many people travel through these pages on a daily basis, but I do know the number will be ever inreasing.Cheers!RobotGuy. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (11/11/02; 11:18:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 89300) Gold: Power, Security, Independence... Freedom. http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
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