Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.
The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/11/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Topaz (3/11/2001; 23:05:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 49846) SteveH (03/11/01; 20:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49833) G'day Steve, Exactly!Curious TG is now entertaining thoughts of an "upmove" to $360ish.Now Barrick is reportedly just "above water" at $360 while a lot of the Aussies are in deep doo-doo as of NOW!The Barrick/Bush connection has NOT gone un-noticed! Topaz (3/11/2001; 22:37:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49845) admin, R Patten re: VAT - MrG admin, Ray.Those VAT quotes you gave, I think you confused Canada and Australia.The GST here (OZ) is applied to NON 24K Au @ 10% but by claiming input credits, this can be effectively reduced to 10% of the buy/sell spread. If you require more info on the GST in OZ, I'll gladly forward the 10 container loads of printed info - if you'll pay the freight. <wink>Mr Gresham,That spike every day is quite curious, no?I think it's a forum reader in Hong-Kong slowly but surely swapping his Paper for Physical. Thats it! It's WOLAVKA.If the Gold market wasn't so damn serious it'd be great fun......nah!...it IS great fun! Gandalf the White (03/11/01; 22:06:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 49844) KITCO is famous for ERRORS ! Chris Powell (03/11/01; 21:54:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 49843) Sharp spikes down haven't stuck====That may be because there were not such down SPIKES !!!AND there was not any, as shown in my Crystal Ball !<;-) Chris Powell (03/11/01; 21:54:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 49843) Sharp spikes down haven't stuck The nightly chart over at Kitco showstwo very sharp and deep spikes downin the POG tonight that haven't stuck,as if something is trying to put thegenie back in the bottle but he keepsgetting out. No doubt they'll have afriendlier environment in London andNew York in a few hours. Still, I think the chart says they're in trouble. megatron (03/11/01; 21:32:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 49842) dumb analogy/silver Scenario:Football Game. Superbowl. One team is the 72 Dolphins. The other team is made up of unknowns, which are 'keyed' out to the viewing audience but can be seen by the Dolphin players. Lets assume there is no fix. In play after play you see the dolphins execute brilliantly,only to be stopped short of the goal line on every march downfield, by the invisible 'team'When the invisible 'team' is on offence they score at will, making the Dolphins coverage, the greatest ever, look semi-pro.You come to the startling realization that there is either a 'greater' team than the best ever, or the dolphins are throwing the game.Who could put together an 'unknown' team that could best the best EASILY???? Would they not have been scouted? Who is the coach because that kind of effort/skill level cannot be uncoached.To assemble a 'team' that can consistently beat the greatest ever is no small feat my friends, no small feat.Somebody got to the Dolphins or there is one hell of a coach and farm team operating somewhere outside of the regular 'football' world. turkey hunter (03/11/01; 21:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 49841) @ Leigh Bible passages Hello. I think the reason they toss their gold and silver in the street is because they can't buy their way out with their money. The King of kings and the Lord of lords the One and only True Judge can't be bought off like human judges. Read the context of those passages. It is their time to be punished and no amount of money will change their fate. Orville Goldenbacher (03/11/01; 20:56:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49840) SteveH, nikkei Thanks, looks like they fixed it. Leigh (03/11/01; 20:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 49839) Tree in the Forest Does anyone remember reading something many months ago on one of the forums about a long-planned cabal plot regarding gold - something to the effect that they were going to let gold run for a while, then outlaw it? How about the passage in the Bible about how in the last days people would be casting their gold into the streets as worthless, and their silver would be taken from them? (confiscated, maybe?)Gold is money, and it's a threat to dictatorial governments. (Yes, gold is used industrially also, but not nearly to the same extent as silver.) Silver, though, is critical to many industries and is superb at killing germs (perhaps even germs that have become immune to antibiotics). It has an entire "life" apart from any monetary use. What I'm wondering is whether the Silver Trio knows something we don't. Gold use can be outlawed with the stroke of a dictator's pen, but silver is an absolute necessity. SteveH (03/11/01; 20:53:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49838) Hit the refresh button on your browser that might help:Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 10:31PM 12222.18 -417.62 -3.31% Orville Goldenbacher (03/11/01; 20:50:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49837) nikkei http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u wonder why nikkei hasn't updated since 9:01, -3%? i checked cnn and bloomberg, they have not been updated since 9:01 either. Cavan Man (03/11/01; 20:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 49836) USAGOLD MK, Do current events remind you in any way of the London Gold Pool days? How 'bout a lesson d'histoire?How was that BF bio please? Receently read a bio of GC Marshall and looking for something else good. Best...CM Cavan Man (03/11/01; 20:33:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49835) (No Subject) POG Let's keep POG in proper perspective. Things must be tough when we are cheering for +$2.8. However, I am very encouraged by the consistent and steady strength of POG. Usually, Aussie mines sell onite and then Comex finishes the work. Lately, that hasn't been the case. No amount of TA can substitute for a lack of liquidity. There are absolutely NO markets of any sort that are in any way normal or conventional as defined by historical norm or standard. History is not a good guide now. Good luck...CM Artie Farkle (03/11/01; 20:29:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49834) (No Subject) 274.40 : ) SteveH (03/11/01; 20:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49833) She sure is moving around... Gold in the last few minutes has been a moving target. Now at $2.60., was $2.30, then $2.80, now...$2.60....Shall our hopes be false again or are things about to reverse course in a most significant way. WE have been burned so much by these antics, that it is now just entertainment.On with the show! Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (03/11/01; 20:23:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 49832) Tree In The Forest It is intriguing, the interest in silver taken by some big hitters. There is so much silver out there now, for such a long time at such a cheap price- I can't see it achieving a 6:1 with gold. At $100/oz Ag, all silver mines would be back in production. What has prevented me from jumping any deeper into silver is the declining industrial use (i.e.photography). I don't see much of a need for silver as money either. Anyone who has ever had to lug a full bag of Ag anywhere, is a convert to gold! SHIFTY (03/11/01; 20:22:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 49831) Periodic Ponzi Update PPU http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm Nasdaq 2,052.78 + Dow 10,644.62 = 12,697.40 divide by 2 = 6348.70 PonziUp 56.73 from last week.Thank you RossL for the link!$hifty megatron (03/11/01; 20:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 49830) gold/silver ratio There are some titanic forces aligned behind silver for all to see. If the three titans of American business can line up behind a commodity in broad daylight and still said commodity goes DOWN! can there be any other logical explanation than there are GREATER titanic forces aligned against them on the other side?It is the ONLY explanation!Do you think there are 200 million Indian women watching CNBC going short silver when they hear Gates bought into PAA?If the three top bookies in the world ALL bet on the same team to win the superbowl there can be only 2 conclusions;1-they all realize that it is a superior team and would be stupid to bet against it2-they colluded to convince the 'ignorrati' and would subsequently go 'short' This a completely untenable scenario with regards to the big three in silver. Thier investments are too diverse and expensive(mines)They have the most expensive 'insider' information money can buy.There are HUGE PLAYERS lined up against silver which is going to make the blast that much larger. I can't wait. R Powell (03/11/01; 20:22:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 49829) Tree in the Forest We know that the Buffet, Soros and Gates all have investments in silver but I would not assume that they don't hold gold positions just because we haven't heard of them. It was only a lawsuit against Philbro, the commodity trading office of soloman Smith Barney (I think) that brought Buffets' silver buying to the light of day and then only after he had accumulated 89 million ounces! I fully agree that silver has all the fundamental makings of a huge move up. Supply/demand situation is even tighter than that of gold and the potential profits for a poorly financed trader like myself are even greater than those in gold. When it really hits the fan, I believe many will remember that both metals are money and there is a limited (perhaps unknown but limited) amount available. As many are fond of saying, gold and silver can not be printed into existence. Now to get POG safely through London and hope George W has called of the hammer gold team or better yet, watch them give it their best shot and fail! I'm certainly getting a great time out of this. Rich R Powell (03/11/01; 20:04:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 49828) POG and Nikkei POG is up $2.80 Nikkei is down over 300 points Sierra Madre (03/11/01; 19:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 49827) Two meanings of "LIQUIDITY" as used in the Press... FWIW...after many years, I think I have figured out that "liquidity" is a word used with two different meanings, and this leads to confusion for the reader.Some writers will use "liquidity" to mean availability of money; a "need for additional liquidity" means that more money should be printed up or be available at banks, or put into circulation. The Fed is usually called on to relieve this need. When the Fed "adds liquidity" it is really producing more fiat money, increasing the money supply. That is one meaning of "liquidity".Then there is the other meaning of this term "liquidity". It is used for instance, in connection with a stock, as in "stock X has great liquidity"; or again, "liquidity is drying up in the corporate bond market". Here the meaning does not refer to the amount of money in circulation, or to a possible "lack of money" to carry out transactions. It refers to whether a large number of BUYERS exists for a stock at any given moment, in a given price range; or to whether there is, or is not, a large number of buyers of bonds in a given price range.One has to interpret financial writers, to discover what they are actually refering to when they mention "liquidity", because of these two different meanings with which the term is used.So, there can be an enormous increase in the amount of money in circulation, and yet, if there are no buyers or very few buyers of stocks, or of bonds, then we will hear of "lack of liquidity". The money can be there in huge quantities, but if there are no buyers at a given price, then there is "no liquidity" for stocks, or bonds, or real estate, or what have you.On a final note, "liquidity" - that is buyers - can come back into the market again at a given price or price level, if the VALUE of money has fallen through inflation of the money supply, thus making the PRICES acceptable to the buyers - voila! - "liquidity" is restored. Yes, because the Dollar is worth less!Is that what the Fed is desperately trying to do, make the Dollar worth less - inflating - to keep prices jacked up? I suspect it is.Games that Central Banks play.Thanks for reading.Sierra JMB (03/11/01; 19:53:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 49826) Chris Powell Thank you for the outstanding contribution by Mr.Derek K. Van Artsdalen...and to think he's another Texan. They're coming out of the woodwork! Cavan Man (03/11/01; 19:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 49825) "A tisket a tasket..." whither Euro in a basket? Cavan Man (03/11/01; 19:48:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 49824) POG now up $1.90 at bulliondesk.com. Tree in the Forest (03/11/01; 19:36:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 49823) R Powell, Mr. Gresham Thank you for your excellent posts tonite. Very informative and stimulating. I have also read Trail Guides latest, and his post ties in nicely, Rich, with your assertion that there will be sellers all the way up, physical sellers anyway. JP Morgan is echoing TG's assertion that Comex paper prices will remain well controlled below $360. I had the impression that this move up in physical would be sudden and explosive. TG gave me the impression that there would be a meeting and poof, POG at $3000. No chance to get in for those not already invested in gold. Now he seems to be indicating that this scenario has been modified. If physical gold separates slowly from Comex prices there will indeed be physical available all the way up, ie no lock limit up. Of course, I guess it depends on what TG means by "slowly". I never got the impression that he is 'hyper' so hopefully he is talking about many months! <grin>If this new information from TG is correct, then I am forced to change my previous thoughts of how things would go down. I previously posited that silver would 'pop' first and then gold. Strong hands would ride silver up and then switch to gold. Now I have to modify this idea slightly. You have to look at how I see this. Three of the smartest, saviest, wealthiest insiders on this planet have invested heavily in silver. One in physical silver and the other two in silver mines. From my point of view, this makes absolutely no sense if gold is going to be where the action is. From my viewpoint, they must have some angle. Now take a look at this. This is the control that "TPTB" has over these markets:1) Control over paper gold price through Comex.2) Control over physical gold price thru CB sales/leases.3) Control over paper silver price through Comex.That's it. Notice what is missing. They have no control over the physical silver price. CBs don't hold enough silver anymore to control its price. The famous US billion oz. silver reserve is gone. And the silver shortage is supposedly worse than gold. TPTB has the control to move Comex gold prices to $340 or so and then "manage" physical prices slowly higher up and away. But with silver, they can hold the paper price, but there's not a thing they can do to "manage" the physical price. While physical gold moves "slowly" up, physical silver can explode. Lock limit up (figuratively speaking of course, not on the exchanges). With this scenario, they can both start moving around the same time but silver will move faster. Now, we have seen extremes in the gold to silver price ratio. We all know it's out of whack. Currently at 60:1. What's to prevent it from going to the other extreme? If gold moves "slowly" while physical silver explodes, could we eventually see physical silver hit $100 while physical gold moves slowly past $600? Based on what TG is saying, this might happen. That's 6:1. In a slow moving gold market where physical continues to trade, the chance for a silver to gold swap at a very beneficial ratio becomes possible. Now, under this scenario, it still makes sense for the three wealthiest, saviest insiders on the planet to invest in silver. It also means that my previous assertion that this upcoming BOE sale on Wednesday would be the last, is wrong. The third series of auctions would go forward as part of the program to manage the physical part of the gold market. Any thoughts on my latest theory? I have to keep changing it but it's fun to theorize! Chris Powell (03/11/01; 19:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 49822) Bucky's 22 1/2-year metals cycle forecasts "perfect storm" in gold http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/711 Latest GATA dispatch.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com R Powell (03/11/01; 19:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 49821) POG Up $1.30 megatron (03/11/01; 19:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49820) red ink alert! Look at the last link. Boy those Asian tigers are starting to look like toothless old farm cats. Orville Goldenbacher (03/11/01; 18:50:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49819) Gold lease rate maker's http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u I think they are either still sleeping, or pretending to beasleep.how 'bout the nikkei, -2.7% Ray Patten (03/11/01; 18:42:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49818) gold lease rates... I believe that the Kitco and LBMA rates are from Friday. Cavan Man (03/11/01; 18:20:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 49817) Trail Guide Can you explain why lease rates are in backwardization at relatively high rates? Cavan Man (03/11/01; 18:15:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 49816) ray patten http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html Here you go. Cavan Man (03/11/01; 18:12:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 49815) Ray Patten I get it at the kitco site but I believe you can access better info at lbma.org although I do not know how to read the columns. There are three and I know not which is AU. R Powell (03/11/01; 18:03:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 49814) So far so good We're two hours into trading in Sydney and POG is still up just a little. I'll feel better in an hour when POG arrives safely in Hong Kong away from the forward selling Australian miners. Rich Ray Patten (03/11/01; 18:00:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 49813) Cavan Man... Please tell us where you can get gold lease rates this early in the evening. Thanks in advance. R Powell (3/11/2001; 17:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 49812) Max Rabbitz Hello and welcome, You stated, "I've had something of a change in values, from mining stocks to the physical and now look forward to lower gold prices even though I'd like to see free markets prevail for the unhedged miners and others." Are I correct in thinking that you see lower POG as a result of the markets NOT being free? If so, then we'll continue to watch the battle between manipulation and free markets. I believe it's going to be intense. It may also be that Michael is right in thinking that the new administration won't continue past policies regarding this market control. No one person or group is smart enough or allknowing enough to ever be allowed that power. Maybe in heaven (but not here) and that remains to be seen. If there is another reason for your outlook of a lower POG, please elaborate. There will be profit taking along the way if/when POG rises but I don't think it's up high enough for that yet. Glad to see the Aussies aren't selling into Friday's gains, at least not yet. Rich Tree in the Forest (3/11/2001; 17:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 49811) How smart is the cabal? From GE:(Deadeye)Mar 11, 17:52(Wisebeard & Ross) " Are Cabal smart or stupid?"They certainly are rich and powerful and presumedsmart but has their greed exceeded their smart?Remember LTC Hedge Fund was made up of the smartestpeople in the world and they went bust when theirderrivatives got out of control. Could the cabalhave gone from smart to stupid?Me: Wouldn't it be ironic if the cabal, in attempting to dumb down our educational system, wound up giving their own children an inferior education? While private schools will always be better than public, the teachers in those schools and the poeple who write their textbooks aren't any better than the rest of us "riff raff". Teaching quality has declined markedly in recent years and while the best private schools are undoubtedly better, we could be witnessing a new generation of dumbed down cabal. That should give us some satisfaction! Henri (3/11/2001; 17:42:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49810) Hi auspec Good to see you here again. Henri (3/11/2001; 17:41:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 49809) Hi auspec Good to see you here again. Pandagold (3/11/2001; 17:41:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 49808) Ray Patten There is no vat on gold bullion now, the UK has fallen in line with the rest of Europe admin (3/11/2001; 17:37:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 49807) Ray Patten, All: The VAT and Ordering Gold from USAGOLD if You Live in Europe, Canada or Australia In our due diligence for exporting gold from the U.S. to customers in Europe, Canada and Australia. We have thus far found the following:1. In Canada: There is no Goods and Services Tax (GST) on contemporary pure gold coins .995 or better. (Maple Leaf, Australian Nugget and Austrian Philharmonic) There is a GST on lesser purity items. Still trying to learn more from our customs contacts there.2. In Australia: there is a 10% VAT on gold of any kind or description without exception. Still trying to learn more from our customs contacts there.3. In Europe: There is no VAT tax on contemporary gold coins of .900 purity or better, or on older gold coins (dated 1800 or later) that trade at less than 80% over melt value. The effective date for lifting the VAT is January, 2000.USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals customers in these countries have the option of taking delivery of their gold or keeping it in storage at a highly reputable safe-storage facility associated with us for nearly 20 years. We are happy to discuss options and strategies with current and prospective clientele in any of these countries in which we are now prepared to offer our services.On most gold items there are no customs and duties restrictions in any of these countries. Ordering gold from USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals is as easy as buying it in your own country and you might is some cases find our pricing a bit better. Our Canadian toll free number = 800-294-9462Our European toll free number = 00-800-2760-2760 (assuming Sprint has taken care of some minor problems we had last week. If you are having problems reaching us please call us at 303-393-0322 collect, or we will discount your purchase to cover the phone call if you dial direct).We are working on an Australian toll free number, and we hope it won't be much longer and we'll be ready to go there.We are proud to offer these services to our international clientele. It's been a long pull to get it up and running. As far as we can determine, we are the first U.S. based retail gold firm to go international thus being able to work with our fellow gold advocates and owners in Europe, Canada and Australia. We hope to expand these services elsewhere during the course of the year. We would like to thank all who have participated in building this site over the years along with all the people who have ordered gold from us. It is you who have made this possible. As suggested earlier today, we have dedicated ourselves to making this site even more successful in the years to come and pledge to plow back some of the profits in order to build it to our mutual advantage for the future. There is little doubt that we all realize how much we have learned here -- we have only just begun. . . . . .--- the Management Mr Gresham (3/11/2001; 17:32:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49806) Off to the Races http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Starting right in Sydney...(Actually, anytime I don't see that familiar plunge downward in EVERY 24-hour period, my eyes pop wide open in amazement! Don't yours...?) Cavan Man (3/11/2001; 17:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 49805) http://www.bloomberg.com Look at the headline regarding Japanese growth. .8 vs .6???; must be a slow news night. Gee, that's pretty good eh? CHINA LEADS ASIA NEXT 100 YEARS. Cavan Man (3/11/2001; 17:08:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 49804) POG We're up .30 and lease rates are steady.Went to the le Ballet today and saw "Coppelia". I don't know about this "surveillance society" business but, we all should weep for those (Coppelia) days. Good evening....CM Mr Gresham (3/11/2001; 17:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 49803) MplsBear on the wealth transfer ahead http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=121316 This guy is, I believe, a "young" Salvadoran (in Minneapolis) on BearForum who says he's doing very well shorting the Nasdaq stocks and putting his profits into gold and gold stocks. I really like the thoughtful personality that shows through his writing..."I think that an inflationary policy carries some large unique risks as inflation is very hard to manage and it could easily spin out of control causing panic and possible social chaos or collapse. I think the only thing that can be done at this point is to attempt to keep the calm amongst the population and try to extend the debt reduction process over a long period of time in order to avoid panics. I see the government taking the first steps in that direction with the bankruptcy modifications they are trying to pass. When the majority of the country is in such a precarious debt situation as it is now, allowing debt to be forgiven outright carries an enormous systemic risk, as the institutions that have issued this debt could simply collapse with the weight of the defaults. ..."If the institutions collapse, there would be massive chaos as the people owning the debt would attempt to withdraw funds from the institutions just like what happened in the early 30s. By securing the debt with the new bankruptcy laws they are attempting to give assurance to those who own the debt that their money will still be there, in order to avoid panic and a run on the banks. ..."I guess the most viable option might be to extend the debt reduction process to maybe a decade or two in order to give the debtors enought time to work their debt off and ameliorate the immediate pain. This would cause a long painful stagnation similar to what Japan has. Of course that solution would have to be accompanied by policy to somehow force or motivate the debtors to reduce the debt instead of carrying it or increasing it by just continuing with their spending habit. ..."Mr G: Hanging on to your wealth across a huge upheaval -- and we now realize after some two years of chatting here that few of us knew what protectable wealth actually WAS two years ago. How can one protect what he doesn't recognize, or if he doesn't know from what direction the threat comes? beesting (3/11/2001; 17:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 49802) Weird Gold Shareprice Movement Last Half Hour Friday. Thanks to everyone who responded to my original post Friday afternoon, on the above topic.IMHO Sir Nickel62's # 49774 this morning seems like the most plausible answer, from his post:<<THIS IS A CONFLICT OF INTEREST STORY FOLKS and it concerns GOLD!Scotia Capital downgrades pretty much the entire gold sector during a time of very highgold lease rates! Why a conflict of interest? ScotiaMocatta, their brethren is into leasing,selling forward, and other derivatives. They also work closely with central banks! Sowhile Scotia Mocatta is having a hard time with high lease rates, their partners in crimeScotia Capital downgrades a myriad of gold shares (some to the rarely used SELLcategory)!BTW/ you did notice which stock they downgraded to a SELL? Homestake - HM, HM isthe one that lead this charge in November from its bottom of nearly 3 9/16 !! It's the bestperformer. So they downgrade HM the best performer to a sell and they downgradeBarrick's, one of he world's BIGGEST gold hedgers from a Strong buy to a buy. BTW/Barricks, ABX was one of the worst performers in the last couple of gold share waves.>>End of Repost.Now, here is something else I have thought about for a long time,concerning shares:All of those major Gold producers that lost value in the last 15 minutes of trading Friday have "Millions" of shares issued. I think when these shares are issued they are not all dumped on the market at the same time, especially in a depressed market(Gold) as it would depress prices even further.(laws of supply & demand) I think whoever underwrites(Brokerage Firms) these issues keeps a huge inventory of unsold shares in their accounts and tries to sell them off as the supply & demand of market forces allows. When there is a day such as Friday(POG up $5.00) these underwriters "feed" the buyers previously unsold shares, as fast as the buyers will buy them. I think at the end of the day Friday those shares being sold were from brokerage house accounts just enough sold to overwhelm the buyers.Bottom Line:Somebody doesn't want mainstream to know what's going on in the Gold sector yet. We Watch Together....beesting. Ray Patten (3/11/2001; 16:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 49801) Max Rabbitz...VAT on Gold? Max Rabbitz, can you tell us when the 7% Value Added Tax on Gold is supposed to expire. When it does, it could help our new Gold bull a lot. Mr Gresham (3/11/2001; 16:40:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 49800) George Ure on "How do you hide Depression II?" http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm "What you come up with, if you're a skeptic like me, is a picture of a Fed that has bet the farm that by clever manipulation of money in circulation and interest rates, they will be able to hide a Depression right in front of everyone's noses - and we can have a Depression in plain sight without anyone being the wiser.""But, back to the original question" Inflationary, or Deflationary in this Depression?"Inflationary is the answer because it is the only way out. If the government is really clever (and they are) and is really lucky (which they have been so far) they will be able to use two control surfaces, interest rates and money in circulation, to inflate things fast enough so that the Depression won't be obvious. ""What is going on now (I believe) at the Fed is this: They're thinking that if they can just play liquidity right, and interest right, they should be able to come through the aftermath of the biggest blow off market in history, with a simple period of stagflation. The liquidity in the system will pump up the prices (not values mind you, but prices) of stocks. Meantime, the interest rates being low enough should spur consumption just enough to keep things from falling over the edge." Max Rabbitz (3/11/2001; 16:32:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 49799) Observations from a new Poster Hello, I'm a first time poster, having followed this site for a little more than a year. I've had something of a change in values, from mining stocks to the physical and now look forward to lower gold prices even though I'd like to see free markets prevail for the unhedged mines and others. So, MK, do your part and keep the doors to the castle vault wide open....flood the market!!! For all those thinking about buying at the last minute, I had a hard time placing an order for German Marks last Friday morning....I got a busy signal for over an hour.I feel Trail Guide, MK, and others are right in that there is not a horde of "Black Gold" out there and look forward to the next installment of TG's "Gold in Antiquity" series. As a result of my owning older gold coins, I've developed an interest in coins from antiquity and found an interesting web site about Roman & Greek coins. It's an extensive site and mostly deals with silver and bronze type coins, as the gold are rare. Most interesting is the page on what these coins were worth back and how they were used. http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Acropolis/6193/worth.htmlThe precious metals content in these coins was debased over time as the empire declined. Metal alloys used more base metals, or silver was only used on the surface. The amount of inflation seems related to the decline in the empire. A 7g gold Aureus now goes for $500 at least.Black Blade. His energy posts have been some of the best, and I follow several E&P boards. He gives the big picture. People are in denial.ORO. Sometimes he has gone way over my head (I'm an entomologist not economist) but often seems spot on. With regard to the latest discussion on government power I tend to side with him. I especially the Bernard Connolly speech he posted a few days ago, even though those on this side of the pond haven't always agreed with the British definition of liberty. As our founding fathers realized, Government is necessary but needs to be restrained to prevent tyranny. Democratic governments are no exception. There is always a price to be paid when we ask the government to help and there are always unscrupulous men to take advantage of this. Europe does worry me. They have a long history of centralized power and limited individual rights, from both Church and State. These forces are strong and getting stronger here too. I just finished a chilling book titled "Feeling Your Pain: The Explosion and Abuse of Government Power in the Clinton-Gore Years" by James Bovard. The last 40 pages are references. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-form/104-8131302-4584757I get the feeling that there was no controlling legal authority for anything they wanted to do. The power is there to grab for anyone with enough ambition. I suspect we are in the bread and circuses phase of the empire. Buy gold. auspec (3/11/2001; 16:20:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 49798) Orville Goldenbacher-- Surveillance Society Thanks, O.G for the ThaiGold post on Big Brother operations. 1984 was a long time ago and few people realize the extent of Govt intrusion within our lives. I have yet to finish a book by Grant R. jeffrey called "Surveillance Society", appropriately. I will just list a few items of interest from the book's chapter called "Project Echelon, A Global Surveillance System": "Echelon is the most ambitious intelligence effort in history and was launched bu the U.S. National Security Agency {NSA} following WOrld War 11. Their goal was to create a truly global spy system, code-named Echelon, a top-secret Anglo-American project, which would be able to capture and analyze every phone call, fax, Internet, radio, and telex message throughout the world. It was originally established and now maintained by five western nations: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand." {my note-- what do all these nations have in common? Yes, indeed!} "Now they use their technology cooperatively, spying on the communications of citizens of other member countries in order to escape the legal prohibition against spying on the private communications of their own citizens. They each intercept and gather electronic signals from almost every telephone call, fax, and email message throughout the world every day." END These intercepts are picked up by sophisticated super computers and analyzed for "key" words and content. There is a voice recognition component so that an individual voice can be identified and tracked. A phone caller can be identified and tracked to his EXACT location within a few seconds. An intricate satellite system is used as part of Echelon. We are so far past 1984, more like 2084. This message is likely being flagged simply because of the word Echelon, if nothing else [Hi guys!}. Our computer chats, web sites visited, etc., it's all there for the intrusion. Little is hidden. Just thought I would make your day. Best to ALL R Powell (3/11/2001; 16:17:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49797) A little recognition and possible outcome Maria Bartaromo ended her Sunday afternoon Market Watch program by listing a few analysts' stock picks for the coming week. One was Newmont Mining. Maria said, "John Murphy chose Newmont Mining looking at gold prices surging." Also the IBD's whole commodities report concerned precious metals, mostly gold. The commodity coverage in the IBD and WSJ is always pitifully small and often not very informative but at least they acknowledged that POG is stirring. The IBD dated Monday is on the news stand on Sat. It's fun to buy Mon.'s paper dated March 12 on Sat, March 10. Didn't buy the Barron's as it's too costly for what miserly attention they give to commodities. I believe the lease rates will tell the story this coming week. If they remain strong, I can't see how in the world spot and the futures will be restrained. Those that sold call options will have to cover (hedge) lose potential by buying the future position. If you've sold someone the right to but at say $280/ounce then you've got to buy the future's (same month as option) at 280 to cover the potential loses when POG goes above 280. The option sellers know this and already have orders placed to cover the potential damage from call options sold. This options sold/futures bought to cover is just one tiny example of an extremely intricate paper game but, in this case, will trigger buy orders in a rising market. This paper market will not "burn" as it is settled in currency. Positions vastly in excess of underlying supplies is the common situation in most all markets traded as commodities. What is unique to gold is that many years' production has been sold in a shorter time period. This is another situation altogether. These short sellers are the ones who are caught as they can not cover with any money hedging system. They may have been hedging so that they can "profit" enough in the coming POG upsurge to get enough currency to buy the physical needed for repayment. If so, no matter how high POG becomes, they will have the money to buy the physical if it does exist for sale somewhere. IMHO there will be sellers at say $500/ounce, and more sellers at $1000/oz and more at $2000/oz, etc. The squeeze may be unbelievable and some may not survive but I don't see any massive defaults as some predict. But as someone (Zelotes?) just suggested, this could be the one to make us rich enough so that "not enough" money never bothers us again in this lifetime. That would be nice. As always, this is just one poor man's opinion. Rich megatron (3/11/2001; 16:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 49796) Pandagold You may be interested to know that the Canadian gov't has substantial securities holdings and use them to 'our' countries 'advantage' when them deem it critical/required.This could include 'shorting' indexes or selling gold itself. Just a thought. Pandagold (3/11/2001; 15:24:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49795) lamprey PAL/SWC Well, I will keep my eye on it, as I have done with SWC. Though, as I have said, I am a gold man. One thing I did notice was that they had similar chart patterns. I got a comparison (overlay). As I mentioned that it surprised me that with the price of the metal reaching for the moon and beyond the price was way off its highs for the year. ge (3/11/2001; 15:02:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 49794) Euro Changeover & Physical Gold Market "On January 1, 1999, the euro became the single currency for EU member states. Their national currencies are, in effect, subdivisions of the euro. National notes and coins will stay in use only until March 2002, when they will be withdrawn permanently and replaced by the euro".I begin to wonder whether EU shall force the physical gold market before the Euro changeover is completed? lamprey_65 (3/11/2001; 14:53:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 49793) This is not an insignificant producer.... http://www.napalladium.com/mineopset.html "Following an extensive exploration program completed in 1999, and a detailed feasibility study completed in May 2000, the company embarked on a $208 million expansion program which will expand ore production to 15,000 tonnes per day, and triple annual palladium production to 250,000 ounces, or 5% of the world's annual supply."Oh, no position - although I am watching it. Pandagold (3/11/2001; 14:43:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 49792) (No Subject) lamprey: I suppose I should have qualified myself more. Even SWC is a small cap in the business compared with South Africa and Russia. I should have used the word 'significant'producer. PAL is considerably smaller than SWC - I guess about half its size.I am not much into the silver metals, I am primarily a gold man - though that could change. But if I did I would tend to look at South Africa. In fact Harmony, a company which I follow very strongly is looking into this area.I had taken my facts as it being the only signifcant producer from Yahoo some time ago when I first took notice of the rise in the platinum group metalsBusiness Summary Stillwater Mining Company mines, processes, and refines palladium, platinum and associated metals (platinum group metals or PGMs) from a geological formation in southern Montana known as the J-M Reef. <<<The J-M Reef is the only known significant source of platinum group metals outside South Africa and Russia>>> lamprey_65 (3/11/2001; 14:08:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 49791) John Doe Many of the major golds have been under accumulation since late November/early December. I believe there were several probable reasons for price drops -1. End-of-week profit taking, inevitable in a fast moving market.2. Running of stops (accumulators wanting more shares on the cheap).3. Yes, masking the strength in gold shares, but not just to keep others out --- but to allow for cheaper purchases by the big players.JP Morgan is saying $340 gold this year. Looks to me like "THEY" have decided it's going to happen, might as well profit from it.All Aboard! John Doe (3/11/2001; 13:58:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 49790) pandagold - friday volumes Not all charts among the gold sector stocks that were driven down tell the same story. Some look OK, but others don't. Pull up HM or SWC on a 10 day price/volume chart, e.g., bigcharts.com. The fast and wide price movement in the last half hour Friday just doesn't correlate with the previous weeks' volume history for these shares. Maybe these stocks were reactively "placed" lower, without the expected volume, because one of the major hedgers were being dumped in a defensive move.Of course, if I were going to try and reprice the sector down, I'd wait until late Friday when all the longs have had their fills and there's little else but new sell stops sitting out there (even though the majority of the market had already been dumped MUCH earlier in the day, while gold shares had been rising or at least steady). It still appears to me a manipulation to make sure gold shares wouldn't show high relative strength on Friday. FWIW. megatron (3/11/2001; 12:58:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 49789) gold/palladium junior Yes SWC did have some technical difficulties homing in on the vein. (When you have to tunnel 18km through a mountain to get to a vein 30 feet wide problems could occur!) Even so they did lots of forward selling and capped thier short to medium term profits, but farther out it gets very juicy if/when the russians ever default. If anyone is interested in covering both gold and palladium bases with the obvious amount of risk attached look at Geomaque in the TSE. They released results from the latest drilling on the Marathon property in Ontario and have an excellent potential 1 million+ ounce open-pit not to mention 2 operating gold mines in mexico and honduras. Excellent and experienced managers and geologists. DD lamprey_65 (3/11/2001; 12:45:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 49788) Contrary Investor - March http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm Enjoy auspec (3/11/2001; 12:21:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 49787) @ Christian Thank you for your insight! That is the exact question of the year. Is GW going to be the dragon slayer or is he part of the dragon? Appearances are "everything" and I'm betting he will find a way to APPEAR to be slaying the dragon. That means a higher US$ POG, but still capped wherever it can feasibly be accomplished. Where is that point?You left out the major land grab and control of various natural resources angle in your recent message. These are part and parcel of a preditorily engineered gold/resource liquidation "sale". Let's see who gets control of what entity, South Africa for example. This works BOTH ways, incredibly! The POG takes off and the hedgers are vulnerable to the banks. The POG continues down and the cash poor companies cannot survive. Who picks up all these pieces? Always grateful for your posts, Christian.Would like to throw in an extraneous comment regarding silver. The POS is kept in synch with the POG. WHY? Is it because the manipulators are afraid the people will THINK of silver as "money" again, or because the manipulators KNOW what silver actually is and always has been? Watch what they do and take the cue from their actions. Obviously silver is NOT just another commodity!Hello to C.M., B.F., $hifty, Henri, The FAMOUS CB2, and ALL! Old Yeller (3/11/2001; 12:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 49786) Chippin' at Greenie's pedestal http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=21997 Speaking of 1984,look at this little peek at the background and current antics of our great protectors,the FED.Change begins at the margins,boys.Don't look back'something may be gaining on you. lamprey_65 (3/11/2001; 10:58:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49785) Gold Weekly Breakout...confirmed this week? Stay tuned. lamprey_65 (3/11/2001; 10:57:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 49784) Pandagold http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pal.html "I mentioned Stillwater (SWC) some time ago. This is the only real platinum/paladium mine in NA."Not true, I'm afraid. North American Palladium, Ltd. - listed on the AMEX last October (Ticker PAL). Large open-pit mine in Canada with newly upgraded palladium resources...see link above for details. Orville Goldenbacher (3/11/2001; 10:21:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 49783) ThaiGold-1984(2001) Surveillance Society.?. Here is an article i found while surfing the net, it's by ThaiGold. Hope he doesn't mind if i post it here, it's a good read. "Surveillance Society.?.Posted by: ThaiGold (207.170.236.35)Date: March 10, 2001 at 23:20Back around 1948, author George Orwell published a prophetic book entitled simply: "1984" ... Needless to say, it was way ahead of it's time. Sorta like science fiction. Or at least it was received by the public and critics as "never going to happen". Yup. Later, it was (I think) made into a movie, or at least shown as a made-for-TV movie. That's where I must have seen it, as I seldom read books. Or anything else. I'm either too busy, or too poor to afford such luxuries. Anyway, I was sitting here the other night reading a free book on the internet, that caught my attention. Very rare, as my attention span is quite limited. In there, "1984" was mentioned in passing. And it got me to thinking how much of Orwell's "science fiction" has already come to pass. We just don't realize it. There's an old cliche, about frogs, that I'm sure everyone knows. If a frog, or in this case, "us" had been placed into a pot of warm water in 1948, and the temperature raised a single degree each year, it's quite possible we have been boiled by now. Or at least look as red as your average lobster. How easily we, as a society, or even as individuals succumb to that which is often perpetrated upon us ...er.... slowly. Change is only relative to "yesterday". "Tomorrow" seems only to be the same as "today". Yesterday becomes tomorrow. Did today even exist. We must have missed it. Oh well, it doesn't matter. Same is, as same was, as same will be. Right.?. In Orwell's "1984" book, he envisioned a mostly faceless numbed-down/dumbed-down "society" of hapless dronelike people living their lives in a sorta spaced out status of tranquilized nothingness. Unwilling or unable to see how low they have sunk and how "brainwashed" they'd all become. Brainwashed by "Big Brother". He was Orwell's envisionment of the Government. An all-seeing and all-controling entity that reached into everyone's home and business with pervasive ever on Video Camera's constantly monitoring everyone. Everywhere. And to compliment the "See You" environment that everyone was subjected to, there was the other half: "See Me" ... ie: Big Brother's incessant TV screen in everyone's face at home and workplaces, broadcasting the contorted "truths and news" as the Government wished the citizenry to accept it. And they did, as gospel. For they had nothing else to see nor hear. The real Gospel had long-since been banned or burned. And the schools were taught by similarly burnt-out/dumbed-down dimwits conditioned by Big Brother to churn out nothing but clones of their teachers diminishment. It was a sad book/movie and most everyone who read/saw it quickly dissmissed it as "I would never let that happen to me. I am too smart. Too wise. Too free". So here we are now, in the next millenium, way after Orwell's "1984": Our Cable TV's relentlessly spewing forth gutter programming; R & X rated sitcoms; ditto and worse soap operas; and clones of Opra. Virtually all "news" programs are from the same fake scripts, provided by the Government or by those underhanded manipulators skilled at spin and damage control. The Truth(s) is(are) very difficult to ferret out. Newspapers no longer print them either. Schools certainly don't "educate" real knowledge anymore. For if they did, we would see High School graduates that could at least, read and write. But they cannot. And nobody seems to care. Sports and Billiards. Bread and Circus's. Prior to Orwell's 1964 era, drugs were pretty taboo. Everywhere. Unthinkable. People were wise enough to avoid such pitfalls and addictions. Nowadays, drugs seem to be the norm. An ever increasing percentage of our youth engages in one form of hard drugs or another. Alcohol(ism) is rampant among them too, perhaps as an "escape" -or- an "entry" into/onto the drug merrygoround. Encouraged by Movie Culture; TV Culture; Peer Pressure; MTV; and Rock-n-Rap "Music". They are the new generations. And they have been richly taught/groomed by the previous generation of equally retarded misfits. Junkies growing up to teach. As junkies. Welfareism has become Big Brother's Big Business. Encourage it in every way imaginable. The caseworker/socialworker industry. Subsidize those voters.!. Give these misfits, something/someone to "practice" their otherwise worthless "skills" upon: The homeless. And give the homeless lotsa money with which to perpetuate their drug addictions. For that's now officially an "illness" and worthy of Big Brtther's benevolent monetary handouts. What a Circus.!. Dumbed-down/Numbed-down. You see it everywhere. Our once great and free markets and institutions have become whatever Big Brother wishes them to be. Tools. To further the agenda of manipulation and control. Of everyone. Everywhere. 1984.?. Hey.!. We're well beyond that. Waitaminute !! you say. .. Where is the "other half": Big Brother's all-invasive Video Camera or whatever it was on everybody's wall and desk, watching our every move ?? Allowing Big Brother to see and know our every thought and every action. It didn't happen. No way. We are too smart. Too wise. Too free. To ever have or allow Big Brother to place such a device in our home. In our office. No way.!. And the Government realized that. The people are indeed, too smart, or skeptical to ever allow such placement. So Big Brother found another way. A better way. A way far more subtle, and far more reaching. Invasive. Dependable. Trusted. And what's even more incredible, the Governemnet found a way to make the people actually WANT this monster in their midst. The people would even PAY to have this Trojan Horse, welcomed within their lives. In their living rooms. In their bedrooms. Upon their desks. In their kitchens. Everywhere, to be convenient. So necessary that we cannot live without it. Or at least, prefer not-to. Love it.!. And in their offices as well. Talk about "Productivity Enhancements". Wow. But whose productivity.?. Why, Big Brother's productivity, if the truth be known. For this new information gathering device of Big Brother's is the biggest leap forward in people monitoring that has ever come down the pike. And what's more it can even supplement if not exceed the trash deliverance of Cable TV when it comes to delivering another drug of choice. Corrupting kids and adults and addicting them mercilously to its grip: Pornography. Now it can be obtained by the youngest. At home. At school. In the Library. Even at Work. For free. We have become a modern Society Under Surveillance. Unwittingly. Unknowingly. By a devious device never imagined by Orwell. He would have laughed and called it far too incredible or silly to be worthy of science fiction. Nor of his book. Even Orwell would assure you: "I'm not be so stupid as to allow such intrusion." Well, you probably have guessed by now, what has brought mostly all of what Orwell predicted as "1984" to become a final reality. Or worse. We just don't realize it yet. Another degree or two, and our immersion as hapless frogs will be complete. History. Yesterday. Today. Tomorrow. Does it matter.?. What.!. You haven't guessed what it is yet.?. Here's a clue: Originally it was one of our greatest military secrets. Used for secure and cryptic communications within the militray. Then expanded to government agencies. Then allowed to be accessed by selected research institutions and Universities. Then expanded to a worldwide network. Then, around 1994: Given to the people. By Big Brother. For the people's "enlightenment" and pleasure. And education. And brainwashing. And snooping. By Big Brother. Today, we call it the "Internet"... Welcomed into our lives. Everywhere. Free.?. Or do we pay dearly for access: $15/month. Or more. Or worse. Think about it. Cordially -- ThaiGold"-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Galearis (3/11/2001; 10:05:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 49782) @ Rhody's lease rate musings Trail Guide is strongly welcomed to comment! First: I am grateful you posted this, dear brother!Notwithstanding, that we paid some coin to carry on the long distance discussions and that I too believe that this conceptualization of the gold market has some nuggets (smile) of credibility, I would dearly love some comments from other posters to this forum and especially Trail Guide on the validity of this.It surely is a refreshing (smile) way of looking at the market. Accuracy/validity would be the plus.Also the poster (apologies for my poor memory of names and handles) who dug up that most useful tid-bit on West Point reserves being "redesignated", congratulations! Even when the larger things are stirring beneath the cloudy waters, there are sometimes ripples that are noticed. The mint, as you know is charged with the responsibility of "moving bullion".The why and to whom is the questions. Are they expecting coin sales to grow? Or.......?Best regards,G. admin (3/11/2001; 10:05:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 49781) Announcement/Opportunity/German 20 Mark Gold Coins http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html Note: We would like to thank those who have already placed orders for the gold 20 Marks. Your order -- small, medium or large -- makes these pages possible. (Not to speak of what it does for your personal financial well-being.) As you can't help but notice, there are no screaming banners, no obnoxious, constantly flashing messages, no long irritating down loads. Instead we offer: --- good discussion (here) --- gold news you can use (at the Daily Market Report page) --- the solid-well considered thinking of our irrepressible Trail Guide (thanks for the latest FOA) --- the clever humor with a golden hue found at the Rocket School of Economics--- our informative (almost) daily look at the gold market found at the Commentary and Review page.--- and more.......... What do we ask in return?Simply that you consider becoming a client of the firm. Thousands of you have already done that and we would like to have a thousand more. We, in turn, as the "good steward" will plow back some of the fruit of that labor to these pages making them an even more interesting place to spend some of your free time. And go even further in helping to discern what is really happening in the "real politic/economic" that orbits this very important yellow metal. . .Once again thanks for doing business with USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals.--- the Management ------------------------We have secured the price on a large number of German 20 Mark gold coins and can hold the price now posted at our on-line store page for the weekend. We had considered taking the offer down with so much volatility in the market, but decided instead to secure prices and keep the offer up. Luckily we were able to secure prices this morning. If you believe the gold price will be going higher Monday, here's an opportuniyy to lock in the price now by purchasing the German 20 Mark gold coins. This offer expires 7am MST Monday morning (3/12/01). Normally, there is a $5,000 maximum online order per customer per 24-hour business period or weekend -- roughly 60 German 20 marks. We are upping that maximum to $10,000 for this weekend only. If you have to use separate credit cards enter your orders for each card separately. There is a limit to the number of orders we can accept. We will be monitoring the on-line store and make an announcement here when we've reached our limit. Orders will be filled in the order received with a maximum of 500 coins offered for the weekend. So it is in your best interest to order early.Background for the coin is provided at the above link which also leads you to our on-line order page. It's all secure and easy to use.Of course, we don't have a clue what's going to happen Monday, but we offer the following updates from various sources to aid in your decision making process:----------"New York, March 9 (BridgeNews) - COMEX Apr gold settled up $5.4, or 2%, at $271.5 an ounce, ending near its intraday high of $271.7--its strongest level in two-and-a-half months. The move was linked to another spike in lease rates, pushing Apr past $270 resistance, which triggered call options at that level to be exercised. Friday was Apr options expiry, and there was open interest of 6,563 at the $270 strike price at the end of Thursday's session."----------"New York, March 9 (Dow Jones) - Comex Apr gold up $4.20 at $270.30/oz on buying by "trade houses others that can't afford to run shorts because unable to borrow it overnight" with short-term lease rates much higher, says bank trader. Notes profit-taking near highs by those who bought cheaper. Views $271/oz as breakout level. . . . Spot gold breaks $270/oz resistance with move toward $272, then $277 now likely, said Deutsche Bank analysts. US speculator short covering is to be expected prompted by high lease rates, they said. At $270.95/oz."----------UBS/Warburg, the Swiss bank, reports strong gold buying by same bank in both New York and Asian markets Thurs/Fri. Gold in backwardation. Market very volatile. Says UBS, "There is very little supply of options in the market at the moment and with the gold forwards at similar levels to the spike in 1999, the options market is very nervous that we may see gold spike much higher. . . . the usual sources of gold lending have lent all they can.Although there are undoubtedly other sources of liquidity out there to be tapped, this will take time to be mobilised – a number of days (weeks?) rather than hours. With liquidity now considerably impaired in the forwards and options market, gold looks now set to trade higher still."----------Using our on-line ordering facility, you can lock in your price now, if you so wish.Thank you. Christian (3/11/2001; 9:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 49780) Barrick Anglogold Bush Family are agents of the British Monarchy. George Herbert Sr., and his sons use Barrick and Anglogold as propriety operation of the CIA using untraceable gold as funding for or overthrow of governments. The cheaper the commodity price is the more profit can be made turning it into trade settlement gold at BIS. Present commodity price of $270 is half of trade settlement price of $540. Credit creation gold between central banks is priced at 10 times commodity price. Greenspan, Bush, Queen of England, Clinton, Corizone, Reich CONTROL the largest Hedge Funds in USA. Who is going to bail out the monstrous hedge funds gold short position WHICH threaten the viability of NYSE + NASDAQ. ESF is backstopping a gold short position of 17,000 tons. USA tax payers will have to make that good to get out of this mess. I wonder how much the so called present surplus can cover that 17,000 tons. We are in trouble big time and instead of solving it we are digging in with an ever increasing gold short position. Politicians need to take the SAT test. Watch the smart money leave the stock market the next 4 months. Rhody (3/11/2001; 7:07:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 49779) LEASE RATES AND POG:POS RATIOS My brother and I were playing around with a few figures theother day and FWIW, this is what we came up with:POG and POS fluctuate with spot metal sales, leased metalsales and paper metal sales. Of these three, the leasedand paper sales are far more significant in driving theprice, because without these two fictional types of supply the spot market is in a screaming deficit of supply.Is there a way to remove these paper drags on the market(and here I include lease contracted gold as paperderived)?I made the assumption (a big one) that gold/silver leasinghas been the major manipulation device for pushing golddown. At the very least, it double counts availablestocks by selling the real metal and replacing the metalin a central bank vault with a lease contract thatis considered as "good as gold" and is thus counted as part of the total gold reserves. In thisway the CB is eating its cake and yet still has it.So how do we remove this double counting phenomena fromthe spot price to see a true valuation?I used the following formula:True price = POG X lease rate multiple.POG is the comex spot price.The lease rate multiple (LRM) is the average lease ratecharged over the one month to one year term converted into a multiple by division into 100%. So the presentaverage gold lease rate is 4.66%, divided into 100% andwe get a multiple of 21.4 for gold.so plugging this into the formula above we get:true price = 271.6 X 21.4(gold) = $5812 per ozIf you do the same thing for silver, one obtains aaverage silver lease rate of 2%, producing a LRM of 50.true price = 4.50 X 50(silver) = $225Is this realistic? If one divides the true price of silverinto the true price of gold to obtain the gold:silverratio, one obtains 25:1 which is a bit high for the traditional 17:1 ratio. So either gold is too expensiveright now, or silver is too cheap. I think it's thelatter. Silver has lagged gold, both in terms of leaserates and spot. It has fallen more than gold even thoughthe supply/demand fundamentals are far tighter, and thelease overhang far higher.On the other hand, spot prices tend to lag surges in thelease rates by several days. (For example, gold reactedlittle last week to huge increases in lease rates)Right now, gold lease rates are half way to the heightsachieved during the WA spike. This implies that spotgold on comex should rise to just under $300 next week,and that lease rates should rise to about the 7% levelThat would push the true price of gold DOWN to($300 X 14.3) $4229 producing a gold:silver ratioof 19. That is close to the historical ratio of silverto gold. As silver also rises, this should refine the ratioeven closer to the historical mean. Of course all of the above may be wishful thinking butany attempt to remove the effects of leasing to giveone some idea of true value after the manipulation endsmay be of some use. The calculations do generatetrue prices in the range of historical price ratios ofthe two metals, and the LRMs produced may actuallyreflect true paper inflations over the past 30 yearsor so. Pandagold (3/11/2001; 6:46:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 49778) Canuck (Stillwater) I mentioned Stillwater (SWC) some time ago. This is the only real platinum/paladium mine in NA. My comment at the time was I thought it strange that this company was way off its highs for the year yet the two metals price was soaring to dizzy heights.I would have been most surprised if any main gold producer was so languishing with gold at a comparible highIt has quite a bit of debt, I believe and probably did some hedging, not enough to kill it but enough to have stopped it enjoying the full benefits in its profits column. Hill Billy Mitchell (3/11/2001; 6:44:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 49777) Dow close on Friday (10665 or 6324) I just performed some fairly unsophisticated calculations. My father has only a 7th grade education, yet he could perform the most marvelous calculations before his age caught up with him. In high school I would solve problems with differential equations that I just could not solve with a little math and some mental effort. My father could get the right answer in less time than me. He was usually off by maybe a half percent at most with his quick mental problem solving process. I wish I could ask him about my calculations as follows:Dow is up by 92% in last five years (up form 5547 to 10665)By pulling out (Wal-Mart, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Intel, SBC, and Home Depot) and replacing them with (Union Carbide, Goodyear, Woolworth, Westinghouse, Texaco, and Sears) The Dow would be up about 14% (up from 5547 to 6324).This would adjust for the changes in the DOW components that have been changed by the manipulators in the last five years. I could not get prices on Woolworth and Westinghouse for obvious reasons; therefore I gave them the benefit of the doubt and assumed that they went up by the same amount as the highest of the six components that were replaced (Texaco 75.12%).Someone out there prove this wrong. It would be interesting to know the correct answer, or at least as close to the correct answer as reasonable, considering the death of Woolworth and the swallowing up of Westinghouse by a British Company.I'll bet that I am only off on the conservative side. The estimated figure of 6324 for the old DOW components today is probably on the high side.Respectfully,HBM Belgian (3/11/2001; 6:40:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 49776) US - JAPAN trade wars. The US/JAPAN Trade Agreement in 1995 (Gold-decline-start !)arranged that both countries would strive on a Weaker Yen and a Stronger Dollar ! This was at the height of the Yen-Carry-Trade. This Trade/Currency - war has been far from finalised. Perhaps a new chapter is on the brink of being written. And the japanese know very well that Gold exists (Hashimoto '97). They certainly know the extent of leverage that "touching" the gold-carry-trade, could give them.Was it "GOLD", that was the "political" one, on the metals ? nickel62 (3/11/2001; 6:29:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 49775) The previous message should be in quotes The words are from the Midas Le Metropole Cafe wed site and should be in quotes. nickel62 (3/11/2001; 6:28:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 49774) Some technical insight into the sell off at the close of the gold equities on friday! As reported in my Midas Gold Alert on Friday, massive buy stops were building on the Comex floor at $272.50, right above the active April contract high for the day. While gold never gave back more than an inch during the trading session, the highs were not seriously challenged late in the day. Volume was very heavy as an increasingly panicky Gold Cartel brought out the Guns of Navarone one more time to prevent a rout and a close above key technical resistance at $272, basis the April contract. Volume was very heavy the last half hour at 17,000 contracts. That means the GUNS were really blazing. The Gold Cabal was not only shooting a lot of bullets at the gold buyers, they were sweating them.It is not unusual for commodity bulls, that are gunning for bear stops, not to try and push through on the close. Why? Because they can launch an assault in thinner market overseas conditions and move gold sharply higher when there is less resistance. Then, instead of stops being touched off at $272.50, they are stopped off at say $277. More bang for the buck.One can never say that will happen tonight or Monday morning, but I have seen it go that way many times.Just as the desperate attempt of The Gold Cartel was evident in their effort to stomp out the gold stampede late in the Comex session, so was somebody's decision to kill the XAU shares in the last hour of the day. With gold making its biggest move in a long, long time and the stock market cratering, the XAU dived late to 55.01, down 1.77. VERY ODD indeed.Here is one explanation:Subj: A conflict of interest story in gold - Scotia Capital and Scotia MocattaDate: 3/10/01 12:43:01 PM Central Standard TimeFrom: lenden@swbell.net (Dennis Shumaker)Sender: longwaves-owner@csf.colorado.eduTo: GATAComm@aol.comTHIS IS A CONFLICT OF INTEREST STORY FOLKS and it concerns GOLD!Scotia Capital downgrades pretty much the entire gold sector during a time of very high gold lease rates! Why a conflict of interest? ScotiaMocatta, their brethren is into leasing, selling forward, and other derivatives. They also work closely with central banks! So while Scotia Mocatta is having a hard time with high lease rates, their partners in crime Scotia Capital downgrades a myriad of gold shares (some to the rarely used SELL category)!BTW/ you did notice which stock they downgraded to a SELL? Homestake - HM, HM is the one that lead this charge in November from its bottom of nearly 3 9/16 !! It's the best performer. So they downgrade HM the best performer to a sell and they downgrade Barrick's, one of he world's BIGGEST gold hedgers from a Strong buy to a buy. BTW/ Barricks, ABX was one of the worst performers in the last couple of gold share waves.Here are the links to the brief snippets of DOWNGRADES that happened yesterday during the POG peak and exactly when the 1 and 2 month lease rates exploded higher during the day!! The one month was cut in half in Friday morning, but by the time the day wore on it exploded. That's when Scotia Capital issued these myriad of GOLD downgrades. Canuck (3/11/2001; 5:47:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 49773) ? This is getting complicated. Think Canuck think;advance past novice status.Why did Gold, silver and PGM majors take the IDENTICAL beating on Friday (3:30-4:00) and many in the same industries did not?What is the common denominator? Canuck (3/11/2001; 5:40:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 49772) @ gidsek You may be onto something brother!!Just checked PDL.TO against SWC; PDL did not take the 3:30 to 4:00 bath.Further, went to silver for a look-see, SIL took the same 3:30-4:00 bath whereas (as posted yesterday) PAA did not.Let's review:3:30-4:00 Bath...................No BathGoldABX,NEM,AU,PDG...................FN,AGE,G.TOSilverSIL..............................PAAPGMSWC..............................PDLHmmm!!!Back to the hedged/unhedged theories????? Canuck (3/11/2001; 5:29:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 49771) @ gidsek SWC dropped a dollar (+/- 3%) in the last few minutes; adds a twist now doesn't it. Sorry, although I have heard of SWC many times I do not know of its status re: hedging & size.So how does this play into the mix?Notice Panda's lastest:"If the mining sector continues to advance significantly next week, without any additional positive news development then, because of those high volumes, I would say that the final hour was hit by short sellers (who will be being squeezed , or there were many who had put stops in place to lock in some of their gains, and these were being 'snatched" Pandagold (3/11/2001; 4:35:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 49770) Nicke162 Those are all day volumes I quoted. I do not see thatJohn Doe mentions the last hour. The heavy volume came bothat the beginning and the end on most from what I can see.What is significant is that Friday was the heaviest volume of the month, and yet most gold shares finished down. All though the final hour was heavy, it is not as though most of it was in that time frame. But the shares never seemed to recover from the opening flurry.We have to consider that the GATA hearing is next week I think (is it 14th?)and the Bank of England auction.Only TPTB who control the large brokerages, and financial houses know the upto the minute state of shorts and margin activity, and these are key considerations. They also know the weighting - whether it is institutional or the little guys.Without this information you are always in the dark to a great extent. nickel62 (3/11/2001; 3:28:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 49769) Panda GOld were you listing all day volume or the closing hour volume? I would like to understand your post better. Did you say that the volume on these stocks was not that light for the last hour as John Drooy claimed? Or that there was not a significant difference between the relative volume from during the day till the last hour for these particular stocks? Pandagold (3/11/2001; 2:59:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 49768) Next week If the mining sector continues to advance significantly next week, without any additional positive news development then, because of those high volumes, I would say that the final hour was hit by short sellers (who will be being squeezed , or there were many who had put stops in place to lock in some of their gains, and these were being 'snatched'.This is the big weakness of trying to protect by 'stops'. Pandagold (3/11/2001; 2:49:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 49767) John Doe Volume on Friday You state declines on very little volume. I was surprised at the 'high' volume on some of the large 'declines'.Newmont over 5millionDrooy 1.5 millionHomestake over 4 millionGlamis over 600,000Harmony over 700,000They were all at the highest for the month.Perhaps you typed an error? John Doe (3/11/2001; 1:55:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 49766) Friday's close Someone should really look into that extremely odd price behaviour in assorted gold shares late last Friday. Sector-wide, large declines on very little volume and no news -- it doesn't add up. I'm sure glad the SEC is right on top of these things. :O)It looks like either rigging for better entry points next week (greed) or tape painting to marginalize gold share performance YTD (fear). If it was true selling, there would have been heavy volume to match the price moves. As it was, the average volume patterns during the day were many times larger than during the selloff. We don't often get to see THAT many footprints all over our backyard. SHIFTY (3/11/2001; 0:57:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 49765) Trail Guide I enjoyed the walk.Thanks$hifty ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.