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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
14 September 2004
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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/
By jlangham@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications
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FOR OUR FIRST NEWSMAKERS AFTER THE BREAK WE OFFER A WRAP-UP OF ITEMS THAT MAY HAVE ESCAPED YOUR NOTICE DURING THE SUMMER, INCLUDING THE LATEST NEWS...
Argentine
protesters storm central bank building
About 400 protesters
waving banners marched into the main entrance of the central bank
of Argentina in Buenos Aires last week, calling for President
Nestor Kirchner to end relations with the International Monetary
Fund. (see
related stories below)
ECB chief economist says
Pact losing its bite
The European Central
Bank's chief economist has described the currentstatus of the
eurozone's Stability and Growth Pact as 'intolerable'. OtmarIssing
told the German newspaper Die Welt that without a credible threat
ofsanctions, the pact was 'losing its bite'.
Central bankers win first
round on stability pact
(See story below)
Eichel criticises Bundesbank
German Finance Minister
Hans Eichel rapped the Bundesbank on Friday 10 September for its
recent criticism of the EU's proposed changes to the stability
and growth pact in a press release titled "Do not weaken
the Stability and Growth Pact".
Juncker confirmed as Mr Euro
Luxembourg Prime Minister
Jean-Claude Juncker was named on Friday 10 September as the first
"Mr Euro", a political figurehead to represent the 12-nation
eurozone.
WEBER ON A ROLL
Until he was hauled over the coals by Eichel on the stability pact issue, Axel Weber had been enjoying himself -- and enjoying a good press. He has set himself an ambitious goal -- to make the workings of the ECB better understood by the public. Even in Germany, host country to its head office, the ECB is little known.
To command a hearing he knew he first had to restore respect for the Bundesbank itself, which had sunk to an all-time low. That once-proud institution, which led the way towards independence for central banks throughout Europe through its brilliant public relations in the 1970s and 1980s, had been dragged through the mud. Staff morale had collapsed.
In his first four months as president, Weber has re-energised the staff through a hectic work schedule. He has amazed them through his willingness to enter into detailed discussions of arcane central bank matters.
He has also shown interest in the organisational side of his job -- which many observers thought might be his weakness, as he had no previous experience of running a large organisation (and by central bank standards the Bundesbank is an overdeveloped, muscle-bound monster).
Even before the row with Eichel, it was not entirely plain sailing. At one point, Weber seemed to downgrade the importance of money in ECB policy-making: "important, but not central", he said. Woops! Economists all over Europe looked to the Eurotower in Frankfurt, home of the leading central bank monetarist, Professor Dr Otmar Issing, follower of the Helmut Schlesinger of "Black Wednesday" fame. Of course Weber was right in terms of operating policy -- the ECB does not target a monetary aggregate. But Weber seemed to be challenging the famous "two pillar" strategy, under which money supply trends are used to "double-check" the results from a broader economic analysis of the outlook for inflation.
However, later, journalists were reassured that there was not one scintilla of difference between the ECB's views of how monetary policy is formulated and those of Weber. It's just that Weber is, well, more "pragmatic"... One wonders if the two German economics professors had had a little chat.
NARROWING OPTIONS FOR GOLD SALES?
One thing Weber seems disinterested in is the subject of possible German gold sales. In fact, he went on record in an interview with Die Zeit as saying that gold holdings "are a natural hedge against dollar fluctuations". This warmed the hearts of the gold bugs. And the ECB has banned the use of gold sales proceeds to fund the research and educational establishment that the former president Welteke was so keen on.
Some observers like UBS feel that Germany may be cooling on gold sales. In that case would France step up to fill the gap in the famous central bank agreement to sell up to 2,500 tonnes in the five years from September? Or Italy? [No, apparently not Italy -- see sidebar below.] The trouble is, governments everywhere are interested in selling gold -- only if they can get their hands on the loot. And that is exactly what the ECB is determined to prevent. Why? You guessed it -- it would break the rules of the stability pact if not of the Maastricht treaty itself. All this has made UBS and other analysts suspect that maybe there won't be as big a volume of central disposals to the markets as everybody had been expecting... But then, the central bankers might just disappoint them, again.
|
Italy central bank says no plans to sell gold reserves ROME, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The Bank of Italy said in a statement on Monday it had no plans to sell its gold reserves. "The Bank of Italy ... has not spoken of this matter, nor does any plan of this type exist," it said in a statement. |
ARGENTINA BUYS GOLD
Yes and some countries are still buying gold for their reserves. This includes Argentina. At a time when it owes untold billions to investors, seems to have no intention of returning their money to them, and says it doesn't want to do business with the IMF, it is using some money to buy gold. There's a gesture of defiance if ever there was one!
RAISE THOSE ANTI-IMF PLACARDS
A new board game called "Eternal Debt" has swept Argentina. The winner is the last person to have to declare bankruptcy by accumulating the least debt and therefore beating the IMF. It is structured similarly to Monopoly, only rather than accumulating wealth -- the aim is to accumulate the least debt. The board is divided into 'southern' and 'northern' zones, intended to represent Latin America and North America respectively. In the southern zone, the board is filled with squares which represent commodities such as oil, sugar, or cotton interspersed with squares that represent capital flight, currency devaluation, or coups d'état -- the sorts of catastrophes that would cause the player to lose money or assets. In the northern zone, there are squares representing the industries which consume the commodities found in the southern zone. There are two other superimposed squares, labeled IMF and Tariff Barriers.
On passing what in monopoly would be labeled "Go" but here is called "IMF", payments must be made. If you don't have enough money you must borrow.
In the last paragraph of the game's instructions, under the heading 'End of the Game', it warns that players may suffer financial collapse during the course of the game. The IMF then embargoes all of their property and everybody loses:
" In this case, placards with anti-IMF slogans will be raised and a new game will begin."
FUND MADE MISTAKES, BUT NOBODY'S AT FAULT
The IMF's independent evaluation office has strongly criticized the Fund for supporting Argentina for too long after it became clear in the late 1990s that the political ability to deliver the necessary structural reforms and fiscal discipline was lacking. Indeed, whatever the deal eventually struck with Argentina, it is clear that the costs of this episode have been huge, that massive mistakes were made and that nobody at the Fund will be penalized or disciplined in any way. Indeed, the guy who was in charge at the time, Horst Koehler, is no longer around to shoulder responsibility. He has left to become president of Germany. Yes, well... For the IMF's management response, see its Management Response (66 KB pdf file) on its website, www.imf.org
ECONOMISTS NEED NOT APPLY
At a time when economists are infiltrating every corner of central banking, Thailand is bucking the trend. The Nation reports that as the Bank of Thailand has started a three-year programme to downsize its workforce, it is looking for financial engineers rather than economists. It wants experts "who can deal with the growing complexities of the global market and the challenges involved in managing the baht float".
"We will not recruit new staff except those who can handle risk management," Duangmanee Vongpradhip, senior director of the human resource group, was quoted as saying.
The central bank no longer seeks economists or accountants. It is offering fellowships for study in financial engineering at the master's and doctorate levels. More financial engineers are considered crucial to the central bank's policy of strengthening its risk-management control, reported the newspaper.
A voluntary programme of early retirement attracted 436 employees who will receive up to 30 months -- or the remaining months before their mandatory retirement -- of salary as severance pay.
The downsizing scheme is scheduled to continue until December 2006, when total Bank of Thailand headcount will be reduced to 3,800.
WILL CHIRAC AND SCHRODER GO TO CANOSSA?
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, returned from his summer holidays with a fight on his hands. The EC of course wants to change the stability pact to make it easier for politicians to run wopping budget deficits. The high priests of monetary stability in the Eurozone want to stop any such move dead in its tracks.
Joaquin Almunia, European Monetary Affairs Commissioner, had the cheek to claim that he did not expect any resistance from the central bankers to a convenient watering down of the Europact:
"Jean-Claude Trichet knows that the objectives of the pact remain the same as they have been since the beginning and that the rules which we could change are going to be based on a wide consensus."
For the central bankers, Axel Weber for the Bundesbank immediately claimed that the pact would as a result be weakened: "The incentive for members of the currency union to achieve a solid budgetary policy would decrease and, at the same time, the wrong messages would be sent to the countries that have not yet introduced the euro."
Germany finance minister Eichel then threw a punch at his friend Weber (whom he had lauded to the skies when appointing him to the Bundesbank's top job only four months ago) and the ECB followed up with a strongly worded statement, insisting that the pact remained "an appropriate framework for dealing with countries' fiscal developments on a level playing field."
This conflict is shaping up as the twenty-first century's "Kulturkampf". If only central banks, like the popes of old, could excommunicate any politician who dares to oppose them. They could then make the sinful presidents Chirac and Schroder kneel in snow in front of the Eurotower in Frankfurt, as Emperor Henry IV felt impelled to do at Canossa in 1077 as he bowed to the will of Pope Gregory. This event still haunted Bismark in his struggle with the Church in Germany 800 years later -- the so-called Kulturkampf. The original fight between the Pope and the Emperor was over the issue of whether the state could appoint the clergy and, by pleading for the forgiveness of Pope Gregory VII, the Emperor gave in to the superior power of the Church -- acknowledging that the emperor's power had been fatally weakened by his excommunication.
TRICHET THE DIPLOMAT AT SCHEVENINGEN!
The politicians are not kneeling in the snow yet -- after all, it's only September -- but they have lost the first stand-off, which took place last Saturday when the finance ministers met at this seaside town in the Netherlands.
Trichet diplomatically acknowledged (as well he might!) that there was a need to improve the workings of EU budgetary rules. Some of the EC's ideas for greater flexibility could even be cautiously welcomed. But, he said sternly, the national central banks were "united" that the basic accord should not be touched.
"Let's improve implementation, let's not change the wording of the regulation," Trichet said at a news conference concluding two days of meetings among EU finance ministers and central bankers at this seaside resort.
Radical changes to the 1997 Stability Pact, designed to get governments to balance their budgets and restrain inflationary pressures, would eventually affect monetary policy decisions, intoned ECB Governing Council member Nout Wellink.
EU finance ministers had laid out principles for how to reform the fiscal rules, which half of the 12 eurozone countries already have broken or are heading that way. Their deputies are to report back in November. Under this framework, ministers agreed that the 3% budget deficit and 60% debt-to-GDP limits would not be changed. Moreover, ministers said that any changes to regulations on how the pact is applied "should be minimised, if necessary at all."
ECB URGES SINGLE PAYMENTS AREA
A reminder of how far the eurozone really is from being a truly integrated monetary area came when the European Central Bank urged banks to spell out when and how they intend to make it easier for citizens to make payments within the eurozone. It is still a long way from being a single payment area. At present, it has a single currency but it's still very expensive for citizens to pay people across national borders even within the eurozone. Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, a member of the ECB board, is losing patience: "The ECB expects SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area) for citizens in 2008 and SEPA for industry in 2010."
A single payments area would allow Europeans to make payments across Europe using one card or account, with the same ease and safety that they now make payments nationally. Tumpell-Gugerell said banks should take the lead, since they were most likely to know what standards and business practices would be most efficient.
However, the ECB is well aware that some banks may, out of self-interest, prevent the euro area from benefiting from the necessary investments. "Therefore," says Tumpell-Gugerell "the ECB will continue to watch closely where self-regulation will work, and where it has limitations."
Tumpel-Gugerell's full speech can be seen by clicking on: http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2004/html/sp040906.en.html
BUNDESBANK GETS ETHICS
Back to the Bundesbank, during the summer it adopted a new code of conduct for the eight members of its executive board, obliging them to hold office in a way that is "independent and avoids bias and personal gain". The code replaces the set of rules adopted by the Bundesbank in April after Welteke's fall from grace when it was discovered he had accepted hospitality from two banks regulated by the Bundesbank.
Axel Weber realises full well that such rulebooks are no substitute for personal integrity, but he also knows he had to be seen to be setting new standards for himself, his board members and employees.
The rules ban the kind of behaviour that brought Welteke down. They state that board members must not be paid for delivering speeches and are prohibited from accepting gifts worth more than EUR150 without the approval of the board. Travel expenses, including hotel bills and costs incurred by spouses or partners are to be paid by the Bundesbank unless the organisers do so to "an appropriate extent".
CAST OFF THOSE COPPERS
One and two cent coins, jamming the wallets of consumers around Europe, and handed over the counter to the dismay of shop owners, may soon be a thing of the past for residents of Belgium and the Netherlands. These countries are now set to follow Finland in scrapping the smallest denominations of the euro, leaving consumers to round bills to the nearest five cents and thus avoiding those awkward (but often, for the consumer at least, uniquely satisfying) transactions consisting of carefully counted coppers.
Germany is exercising characteristic caution over the matter, fearful that the move may trigger further inflation similar to that seen at the introduction of the Euro. However, Belgium's central bank, looking to Finland as an example, expects that prices should rise by no more that 0.1%, and even if shopkeepers round all bills up to the nearest five (prices will remain labeled the same), the inflation is estimated to be no more than 0.4%.
The coins will remain legal tender throughout the eurozone, but countries rounding bills wish to reduce the volume in circulation. Not only are the coins expensive to mint, Dutch retailers estimate that counting the coins alone costs them EUR30m a year.
GREENSPAN AT THE HOLE
The Oracle has spoken. As American election-fever reaches boiling point, Alan Greenspan has entered the fray to comment on that all-important but all-too-often ignored issue -- no, not Iraq, but the balancing of the United States budget. As everybody knows, US fiscal policy is out of control.
Greenspan did not quite put it like that. But at the central banker's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Greenspan he did allow himself to air his concerns that the country owes more to retirees than the economy will ever have the ability to deliver. Or put it another way, it will only be able to delver on these commitments by raising taxes hugely -- reducing the real incomes gains of current workers. He called for a recalibration of public programs, warning "If we delay, the adjustments could be abrupt and painful".
As baby boomers retire in the coming decade, and most of them go on to live for donkeys years afterwards, social security tax receipts will not cover the cost of outlays as of 2018, says the Social Securities Trustee's 2004 report.
As tensions rise on every issue in this election year, Greenspan has endorsed neither the stance of President Bush nor his rival, John Kerry on the matter. Like other less august central bank governors, he is reduced to using the "bully pulpit" and appeal to public opinion. He thinks it still matters what the public thinks. Whoever said Greenspan isn't an optimist?
PRIVATE GREENSPAN
In his book about the Federal Reserve Lawrence Meyer writes that the Fed is a "pretty formal place" in which the chairman "is not very visible". Greenspan doesn't make a habit of dropping in on Board members for casual conversations.
On the other hand, whenever Meyer sought Greenspan out, he always greeted him warmly: "I always came away from our conversations admiring his insight and judgment. Still, something about the chairman made me very efficient in the amount of his time that I expended."
"I wouldn't call the chairman a chatty person. He is a private person, someone who seems uncomfortable in a large group," Meyer writes. "The irony is that Alan Greenspan is a very interesting person and a warm, wonderful conversationalist - - who simply doesn't seem to like to have conversations".
"Once I realized this, I didn't take his manner as arrogance or an absence of appreciation for others. It was simply his way."
See John Berry's review at www.bloomberg.com/news/commentary/jberry.html
DUISENBERG VENTURES INTO ASIA
In his first public talk since stepping down from the ECB, Wim Duisenberg is currently visiting Kuala Lumpur to deliver a talk on "The Euro and Asia". It is hosted by ABN AMRO Bank Bhd, the Malaysian Dutch Business Council (MDBC) and the Royal Netherlands Embassy, according to Bernama news agency. Duisenberg's visit is part of The Netherlands Embassy's celebrations to mark Holland's turn to take charge of the European Union (EU) presidency. The first full EU presidency of 25 EU countries is led by Holland (from July 1 until December 2004).
It is scarcely credible, but this will also be Duisenberg's first ever visit to an Asian nation. This surprises Newsmakers. A man who has been at the summit of his very international profession for longer than anybody cares to remember -- as head of the Dutch central bank, head of the BIS, head of the ECB -- on his first visit to Asia? Newsmakers has always assumed that fledgling central bankers cut their teeth attending international meetings around the world before they are even considered for jobs in international finance.
"I'M NOT A DIFFICULT PERSON", SAYS MBOWENI
The meeting took about five minutes. Tito Mboweni was invited to President Thabo Mbeki's house and wrapped up his reappointment quickly. No "negotiations" were involved:
"I must dispel the notion that I had negotiations with the president. I had nothing of the sort. Presidents don't negotiate with governors of central banks," he said, playing a very humble card.
Mboweni added it was very easy to accept the post. He had not wanted to cause any difficulties; "I am not a difficult person, as you know."
And for those wanting to forecast his possible movements the next time his contract is up, Mboweni said his interests were more academic than based on the pursuit of money. If he had left the central bank, he said he might have approached some of the universities to take him on. This remark made some observers ask whether the presidency of the South Africa Reserve Bank could at a stretch be called an "academic" appointment.
What were his plans for his new term at the central bank? It seems Tito has the same aim as other central bankers to make their job appear "boring":
"The challenge is to build on all the good things that we accomplished in the past five years. This is in fact more daunting than for example eliminating the net open forward position. We are going to be doing the same boring central bank things that we have done for the past five years such as bank regulations, ensuring an efficient national payment system, helping our commercial banks prepare for Basel II and accumulate foreign reserves without disturbing the foreign currency market." Mboweni said.
SARB CUTS RATES
However, if Tito wanted to make monetary policy boring during his second term, he's going about it in an odd way. In August the SARB surprised markets by cutting base rate from 8% to 7.5% just when most people were expecting no change. The strong rand has been criticized by the powerful finance minister Trevor Manuel and the National Union of Mineworkers. But maybe it is a good thing to surprise markets every now and then just to make sure they are paying attention.
MARCUS TAKES UP NEW POST
Meanwhile, Ms Gill Marcus, who left her job as a deputy governor of the SARB at the end of June, citing differences of opinion, took up a position as a professor at the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) in August. A statement from GIBS Professor Nick Binedell, a director at the institute, said that Marcus's personal leadership skills, insights into key policy debates, her relationships with institutions and individuals across all aspects of SA business community would be a great asset to the school.
As part of her brief, Marcus will be focusing and developing GIBS activities in the area of policy, leadership and gender as well as developing new and shaping the existing programmes that are engaged in the broader policy debates and dialogues. But this news has not scotched the suspicion that she is waiting her time before being appointed head of the mooted new financial super-regulator.
Marcus, an ANC stalwart and a former deputy finance minister under Nelson Mandela, was appointed a deputy governor of the Reserve Bank in 1999.
SARB ANNOUNCES CHANGES TO ITS MPC
The composition of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has been changed to allow for two senior staff members of the SARB to become members. A.D. Mminele, Head of Financial Markets and Dr M. Mnyande, Head of Research and Senior Deputy Chief Economist are to join the MPC.
BANK OF BRAZIL IN A SPOT OF BOTHER
Henrique Meirelles, president of Brazil's central bank, under attack for allegations that he evaded taxes and used black market money-changers to transfer personal funds, fought back in August, saying that he had the support of President Lula da Silva and would not step down. Both da Silva and Antonio Palocci, finance minister, have issued strong endorsements of Meirelles. The head of a congressional committee investigating money laundering and a member of the opposition party, Senator Antero Paes de Barros, also called the magazine report "inaccurate" and said his committee would not be investigating the allegations.
Meirelles previously lived in the United States where he heading global banking for FleetBoston Financial. In his defence Meirelles said "I am one of the few Brazilians to make a success of myself overseas, I gave all that up to come back home to help Brazil."
However, Brazil's opposition party challenged the special ministerial status awarded to the central bank governor through a provisional measure announced by Palocci. The status is widely perceived as a way to protect Meirelles from the scandal that has blown up around him. As a minister, Meirelles would be subject to prosecution only in the supreme court, if any action were to be taken against him. The opposition party has declared that such a measure is unconstitutional and that they would submit a challenge to it in the Supreme Court.
BoE STREAMLINING CONTINUES
The Bank of England is set to put an end to one of its age-old services. The Old Lady has announced plans to withdraw from providing retail banking and clearing services to its commercial customers such as government departments, building societies and other companies.
Mervyn King, governor, has been streamlining the Bank since his appointment over a year ago. He gave a hint of impending changes at the Bank in this year's annual report, in which he announced his intention to "concentrate its core purposes of maintaining monetary and financial stability."
The Bank wishes to remain on good terms with all its customers and hopes to cut the service, which will affect 500 customers, within two years time, to give them time to find suitable alternatives. However there is one customer that may be allowed to continue banking on Threadneedle Street. Huntingdon Life Science, an animal testing company, was forced to turn to the Bank after high street banks it used were targeted by animal rights extremists. The Bank says "There would be no question of us switching HLS's banking unless they had a private sector banker, but ideally we would like to withdraw from retail banking."
The personal bank accounts of several thousand current and former members of staff will also be unaffected for the time being. The Bank is delaying a review of personal banking until it has made progress with the other changes. It will assess the impact of the other changes on the future viability of personal banking.
In case overseas central bankers are worrying lest these changes might affect the services the Bank of England provides to them, it is emphasized that such services are not affected by the planned cutbacks.
LIIKANEN TAKES ON UPHILL TASK
Erkki Liikanen took up the post of the Bank of Finland's new governor on Monday 12 July. His term of office is seven years, and he may be reappointed for one more term after that. Liikanen will hold his first press conference as governor in September when he will present the Bank of Finland's economic forecast and report on the current economic outlook. Following the retirement of the former governor Matti Vanhala on 1 April 2004, Matti Louekoski, deputy governor, has held the position of acting governor. He relinquished the post to the incoming governor on 11 July 2004. Like other governors of the eurozone's central banks, Liikanen faces an uphill task in restoring morale.
Bank of Israel staff to get
medals
The Bank of Israel is
to spend NIS 320,000 on medals to be awarded to all members of
staff in commemoration of the central bank's Jubilee year, Haaretz
reported. However, a planned celebration for staff and retired
workers was cancelled, the report said.
Former RBA chief criticises
PM on rates
Former Reserve Bank
of Australia governor Bernie Fraser expects interest rates to
rise straight after the election, partly because of the lax budgetary
policies of the Howard government.
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If you have any comments, or would like to suggest a story to Newsmakers, please send an email to jlangham@centralbanking.co.uk
14 September 2004
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By jlangham@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications
******************************************
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
Benedict
Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications Ltd
6 Langley Street, London WC2H 9JA, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 3625
Fax: +44 (0)20 7836 3608
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk
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