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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.


18 November 2002

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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/

By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Despite the criticism that has been shovelled on the ECB recently for its failure to follow the Fed's lead in lowering interest rates, it is heartening to know that at least central bankers stick together. Alan Greenspan for one has been quick to defend his European counterparts: "The presumption that [the ECB] want to be a handmaiden of the Federal Reserve strikes me as ludicrous."

 

FED ACCEPTS BLAME FOR THE GREAT DEPRESSION

Fed board member Ben Bernanke, in a recent speech in honour of Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday, magnanimously decided, on the Fed's behalf, to shoulder the blame for the Great Depression. He owned: "You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." How can he be so sure?

 

THIESSEN FIGHTS CORPORATE FRAUD

Following in the footsteps of Paul Volcker who has been battling gallantly against corporate fraud, Gordon Thiessen has been appointed chairman of the Canadian Public Accountability Board. One of his tasks will be to round up a group of trusty inspectors whose job it will be to certify that auditors are doing their own job properly. Thiessen, who preceded David Dodge as governor of the Bank of Canada from 1994 to 2001, explained how they managed to persuade him to take this job on: "Ensuring that people have confidence in financial statements because the quality of the audit being done is first rate is terribly important." The Ontario Securities Commission thinks oversight of Canadian accountants could do with some improvement and that by appointing the likes of Thiessen it will in this way reassure investors and avoid any repeats of the Enron fiasco. Also like Volcker, and indeed ex-central bank governors of any other G7 country, Thiessen has his finger in a number of pies: he sits on the boards of the Institute for Research on Public Policy, Manulife Financial Corp and Ipsco Inc, and is also chairman of the University of Saskatchewan's board of governors.

 

BRIEFCASE FRAUD

Although not related to Canada, Newsmakers discovered an amusing incident of the kind Thiessen is likely to have to get used to. Raymond Williams, the founder and CEO of HIH insurance group, which is lamentably no more, under cross-examination by Wayne Martin, counsel of the Royal Commission, told the court in Australia a neat little story about his briefcase:

Martin: "Could you tell us please if, on your frequent first-class trips to London, you booked the seat next to you for your briefcase?"

Williams: "I don't recall specifically. But that may have been the case, on some occasions."

Martin: "That your briefcase was also travelling first class?"

Williams: "That may have been the case."

Martin: "Did you express the view to Qantas that this briefcase should be eligible for frequent-flyer points?"

Williams: "I can't recall that."

Martin: "And were you subsequently informed that said briefcase would not be eligible for such points on the grounds that it was not, in fact, a person?"

Williams: "That may have been the airline's position on that issue."

Martin: "Was that briefcase, from that point on, booked under the name of Casey Williams?"

Williams: "Yes, Casey Reginald Williams, AM."

 

CROW SUGGESTS THIESSEN MIGHT NEVER HAVE BEEN

Meanwhile, Thiessen's predecessor, John Crow, has recently released a book that reveals how Thiessen might never have been governor at all. He says that a dustup with then finance minister Paul Martin over inflation-targeting strategy meant that he was blocked from having a second term as governor. In his book, wryly titled "Making Money", Crow ridicules the brittle understanding of economics of the Liberal government who won the elections just as his term was up for renewal. Of their notion that they could achieve economic growth and fiscal responsibility together with low interest rates and low inflation, Crow scoffed, "Was this a joke? I don't think that anyone with a decent understanding of monetary policy matters could have made this up if they tried."

Crow developed a stoic resignation in order to cope with their confusion over economic affairs: "Rumours swirled and the media became increasingly thrilled. I stayed calm, having long since taken the view that it would be best to sit back, observe the show, and see what was pushed on stage before responding."

Eventually, he decided that he would only accept reappointment if they accepted his stand on inflation targeting; Martin stood firm in his wish for the target band to be upwardly revised from 0-2% to 1-3%. When Crow offered a compromise of 0.5-2.5%, the game was up: "This was rejected out of hand. So we agreed to disagree, and my term was effectively over."

 

BONELLO PROVOKES CONTROVERSY

One politician has threatened a similar fate for Michael Bonello, the governor of the Central Bank of Malta. The finance spokesman for the opposition Labour Party, Leo Brincat, seems to have taken rather unkindly to what he thinks were ill-advisedly enthusiastic remarks on joining the European Union. In a speech at the annual dinner of the Institute of Financial services on the subject of Malta's options with regard to regional economic integration, Bonello assessed the argument for joining the EU. He concluded as follows: "The dynamics of regional economic integration are such that the choices available to our policymakers will be inevitably conditioned in the future by the policies of an enlarged and stronger EU. It should, therefore, be clear that if it is to prosper, Malta will have to seek an accommodation with the EU. The prevailing view among countries on the periphery of the existing EU-15 is that the prospective long-term benefits of membership outweigh the costs... Until such time as an equally well-documented argument is made which seriously questions this view, the case for membership remains a compelling one."

As a consequence of these comments, Brincat decided, somewhat rashly, that Bonello had "disqualified himself from serving under a Labour government."

 

CANI SAFE FOR NOW

As for the governor in Albania, Shkelqim Cani, whose tenure looked shaky due to his supposed responsibility for the affair in which his deputy Dhame Pite was sacked for his handling of a banknote emission tender causing the loss of $600,000 to the state budget, things are looking up. At a plenary session in parliament on November 6 it was argued by opposition members that the nature of Cani's position made him inherently responsible for Pite's failings. However all the criticism of Cani originated from opposition parties, and luckily for Cani the governing Socialist Party (to which Cani in fact belongs), which has a majority in parliament, decided that the motions against him were unconstitutional. As a result, when it came to a vote as to whether he should remain in office or not, 66 voted that he should stay against 43 that he should go. However it was ruled that investigations should still continue - there are currently 12 files in progress - the outcome of which remains to be seen. For the moment Cani is safe - but has only won the battle, not necessarily the war.

 

MBOWENI GOES TOP BRASS

The ignorance of civilians as to what central bankers get up to and why can often have quite detrimental consequences. To combat this problem, Tito Mboweni, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, has taken to placing adverts in the newspapers in the hope of educating the people. He took out a two-page spread in a national paper explaining to the public why inflation targeting matters, following the recent upwards readjustment of the target band. And Tito can now lay his hands on guns as well as butter in defence of his position. He has been made an honorary colonel of the 1st South African Tank Regiment. Newsmakers congratulates him. Rapacious speculators will think twice before messing with the South African rand.

But Mboweni's interests can be said to be truly varied. Not only a central banker, and now a colonel, he is also what he describes as an "avid flyfisherman". He recently gave a speech at the launch of the fourth edition of the "Nedbank Guide to Flyfishing in Southern Africa"; a book that he said would "occupy a prime place on my bookshelf". In his speech he praised the publication, not least for bringing his countrymen together - flyfishermen to a man. "By bringing in many black people into this sport, we will be playing our little role in creating non-racialism in South Africa in the true spirit of the call: South Africa belongs to all who live in it, black and white. Thus no sport or recreational activity must be seen to be in any way black or white, but must be truly South African - black, white and women. So let us go out and spread the gospel."
http://www.reservebank.co.za/internet/publication.nsf/WCEV/8C64F20A7648597B42256C68004D52DE/?opendocument

 

REPSE WINS

Einars Repse, formerly governor of Latvia's central bank, is now the country's prime minister. When his New Era party won the most seats in the recent elections, thorny coalition talks followed. Repse has teamed up with three other parties, the Latvia First Party of Christian democrats, the centrist Union of Greens and Farmers, and the right-wing For the Fatherland and Freedom, and now controls 55 seats. Repse has now emerged as the leader, and his cabinet has been approved by the 100-strong parliament by 55 to 43. Repse has said of his predicament, "We have a hard job to do, but not an impossible one.

 

WHO NEXT TO HEAD BOSNIAN CB?

What is to happen when the term of Peter Nicholl, current head of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, expires? According to the law governing the central bank, which was laid down five years ago when the bank began operations, the governor for the first six years must be a foreigner; and after that, a Bosnian citizen. Nicholl has recently said that there should be no problem appointing a successor, and suggested that any one of the vice-governors would fit the bill: "I believe that Bosnia-Herzegovina has potential candidates with good skills for the post of the CB BiH governor and among them are the three current vice-governors."

However, each of the central bank's vice-governors represents one of the country's three population groups: Kemal Kozaric for the Bosniaks, Ljubisa Vladisic for the Serbs and Dragan Kovacevic for the Croats. Should one of these (or for that matter any other Bosnian) be appointed in favour of the others, it is worried that this will rekindle some of the problems that led to the appointment of Nicholl, as a foreigner, in the first place. Though the current law is very clear, Newsmakers hears that there is discussion afoot in Bosnia as to whether the political situation has changed sufficiently to enable Bosnian politicians to agree on who should be the next governor. Two alternative solutions have been put forward: one is that the law should be amended to keep a foreign governor for a longer period, perhaps another two years; others have made the more radical suggestion that Nicholl should be made a Bosnian citizen. This should be a situation worth observing come next August.

 

UKRAINE CB UNDER FIRE

The National Bank of Ukraine has come under fierce attack from the government, which is allegedly demanding that the governor, Volodymyr Stelmakh, be dismissed. Showing signs of cavernous disillusionment with the central bank's performance, Ukraine's prime minister, Anatoliy Kinakh, has reportedly petitioned the president to ditch Stelmakh, who as governor is judged to be responsible for the bank's failings. The prime grievance is the bank's apparently "poor cooperation" with the government. Kinakh is said to have sent a report to the president, Leonid Kuchma, complaining that the central bank suffers from a "poor ability to develop and effectively implement the monetary, credit and foreign exchange policy to achieve the long-term goals of stable development."

Kinakh listed the weakness of the banking system and a lack of radical changes in monetary policy as important failings. The bank is also accused of being difficult by refusing to sign a memorandum on its dealings with commercial banks, and Stelmakh himself apparently failed to show up at key meetings with the government.

I asked the bank to what extent this was true, and its version of events was rather different. For one thing, "the rumours about dismissal are not officially confirmed yet." In fact, contrary to what the report suggests, although relationships with the government are clearly not exactly healthy, they have certainly been worse: "Since the council of the National Bank come in force two years ago much progress has been achieved in relations between the government and the central bank as far as financing of budget deficit is concerned." It is worth observing that Kinach's government is already the eleventh in Ukraine since its independence in 1991, while Stelmach is only the fourth governor of the central bank since then.

As for the banking system, the key problem is linked to "undeveloped financial intermediation", as banking credits become practically the only interest-bearing asset. High real interest rates are severely criticised, but the bank attributes this to "excessive reporting procedures, negative exchange rate expectations, moral hazard and lack of transparency", not inadequate monetary policy. The lack of activity in the treasury bill market since the 1998 collapse is not ideal, but again, "these are the problems of the whole financial sector, which is extremely undeveloped." The bank explained that the fact that top businessmen are appointed to key positions in government is a "dangerous problem", causing a very damaging conflict of interest between the public and private sector.

The bank defends its performance, saying that since Stelmakh has been governor, monetary policy has been effective, with inflation at historically low levels and deposits of the banking sector growing. Since January 2000 the exchange rate of the hryvna to the dollar has been stable at 5.4 UAH/USD. The bank does admit to there being a lack of clarity in monetary policy strategy, but this can be explained by a quite understandable "conservativeness against innovative approaches since the bad speculation experience that occurred in the forex market in 1997-1998." One wonders, then, if Kinakh's eagerness to see Stelmakh dismissed does not betray an ulterior motive...

 

4 November 2002

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By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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FRAGA'S DAYS ARE NUMBERED

The wholehearted endorsement of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's presidency by the Brazilian populace last weekend has significant implications for the governorship of Brazil's central bank, and consequently for the country's economy. Lula, as Brazil's new president is affectionately known, has long stated his intention to replace Arminio Fraga as governor of the central bank - along with other bigwigs in charge of the economy - to signal his serious intention to cure Brazil of its economic woes. Some have questioned this decision: Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf recently said in an open letter to da Silva that it was a "great pity" that he had not decided to keep the "superb" (this word, interestingly, was edited out of a translation of the letter in one of Brazil's main newspapers, the 'Estado de São Paulo') Arminio Fraga, but now that he had made the decision, he had better choose a worthy successor.

Therein lies what some consider to be the first great dilemma of Lula's government - what to do about replacing Arminio Fraga? How soon should his successor be named? The outgoing president, Fernando Henriqu Cardoso, has already offered to fast-track the procedure, and submit to the senate the new directors that Lula might choose. If Lula waits until he assumes the presidency proper on January 1 to say who he wants to succeed Fraga it may be that his successor will not be able to be approved until after the Carnival (the beginning of March).

Some in the markets say the changeover should be made without delay, arguing that if there is going to be change, get it over and done with, it is best for the transition process to be as short as possible. The flipside of the argument is that the announcement of a new successor now will undermine the credibility of the remainder of Fraga's time as governor, particularly if they do not see eye to eye. Some think it would greatly improve investor confidence if he remained. He is seen as "extremely competent", and a "prestigious figure" that would smooth the transition into a Lula government. However, it is not denied that there are other people who could do his job just as well.

But who will it be? On national television recently Lula was vague about the qualities he sought in the next central bank president, saying it would be "a person in whom I trust, someone who I know is competent, who is capable... I have many friends in many places. Obviously [the president of central bank] will be someone who understands the market, he will be someone in my confidence; he does not necessarily need to be affiliated to the PT [Lula's party], but he will be a person who knows how to look after our economy correctly."

The name that is currently on everyone's lips is Paulo Leme, emerging markets strategist for Goldman Sachs in New York. Perhaps it is hoped that such an appointment would quell the suspicions of nervous Wall Street traders when they see a kindred spirit appointed. Interestingly, on the subject of how soon to replace Fraga, Leme has said (presumably before these rumours began), "Excepting the fact that I still think the best option would be to keep Fraga, it is fundamental that the matter is decided on soon". He also thinks "this exclusive obsession with [Fraga's successor at] the central bank is a mistake, when we should really be worrying about the economic team as a whole, and how it works together... Working together is very important, the concept of acting as one, with everyone rowing in the same direction". Leme, who is an orthodox economist, recently met some PT leaders, although not explicitly to talk about his replacing Fraga, and he commented: "The talks were very good, and I was surprised at how receptively and interestedly they listened to my opinions, which does not mean, of course, that they might have agreed with everything I said."

It is expected that there will be change among the directors of the bank also, and it seems unlikely that the successors will be from the central bank. At present, half of the directors at the bank are previous employees at the bank, and if they are not invited to remain, they will have to relinquish their positions. The people in this rather uncomfortable position are the director for financial system regulation and organisation Sérgio Darcy, the director of supervision Tereza Grossi, the director of administration Edison Bernandes, and the director of bank liquidation and privatisation Carlos Eduardo de Freitas. The other three, as well as Fraga, were appointed from outside the bank. Furthermore, the new governor will be able to change the heads of department, although the successors will have to come from within the bank. According to the bank's charter, only career employees at the bank can head the 22 departments. Also, four of the five existing secretaries as well as the two managers must be bank employees.

 

MBOWENI GETS TOUGH ON THE MEDIA

How to deal with self-interested journalists who really only care about producing an interesting story, - often at the expense of the truth - is a perennially bothersome issue for central bankers. Quite often journalists simply lack respect for the sage utterances of central bankers, and irreverent hacks are all too willing to mangle their words to suit their own purposes. This kind of impudence has certainly riled Tito Mboweni, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, of late.

Mboweni has now been misquoted twice by the same wire service and has been forced to dismiss as entirely fanciful the statements they credited to him. They lifted sentences from the bank's publications - which were independently researched and included the usual disclaimer explicitly stating that the views were not those of the bank - and attributed them to Mboweni, alongside real statements that he had made, thus making him look inconsistent and foolish.

Inaccurate reporting has been something of a scourge for Mboweni and it does present a serious problem. As he has observed, even the most intelligent people often just don't question what they read in the media - and the consequences can be serious, as Mboweni is all too well aware, attributing part of the reason for the rand's fall to reckless journalism. As a result, Mboweni now has a policy of not giving one-to-one interviews with the wire services, and has even given serious consideration to not giving interviews at all. Failing that, he has mulled following Mr Greenspan's example: "Another option, which seems very attractive, is to speak on the basis of a written text and not answer questions like the United States' Alan Greenspan does". But can the South African central bank mimic the US? Not quite. Alan Greenspan can get away with arrogant attitudes that a South African central bank governor cannot. Sorry, that's life.

 

MISINFORMATION? OR MISINTERPRETATION?

In neighbouring Zimbabwe, similar oddities have appeared in the media. A quite extraordinary article appeared recently in one of the country's main newspapers, the Financial Gazette, confidently alleging that one of President Mugabe's stooges, Gideon Gono, would be taking over from the incumbent governor of the central bank, Leonard Tsumba, next month. The newspaper said that as Tsumba's term ends in November, a replacement is being sought, and that it was pretty sure Gono would be the man, currently chief executive officer of the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe but with humble origins as a tea boy. The story claimed that Gono had recently been seen touring the central bank's headquarters in Harare, and had held informal meetings with the senior management there; he has independently been spotted pouring over the bank's organogram.

All rather odd when you consider that Tsumba's term doesn't end until next July, as both the bank and Central Banking Publications, Central Bank Directory will confirm. Moreover, the bank told me that no replacement is being sought. Indeed, it says that this whole story is claptrap, and wonders whether it might not have to do with the fact that Mr Gono in fact owns the newspaper in which the story in question was published - he currently chairs the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation's board of governors. Intriguingly, however, Gono professes of the reports of his imminent appointment: "That is news to me -- I am not aware of that appointment at all". The plot thickens... Furthermore, Tsumba has got himself into Mugabe's bad books for, heaven forbid, backing former (take note) finance minister Simba Makoni's plans to refloat the overvalued Zimbabwe dollar - probably well-advised if Zimbabwe's economy is to stand any chance of recovery in the long run. Watch this space.

 

HOUENIPWELA CHAMPIONS THE PUBLIC CAUSE

In the far-flung Solomon Islands, the central bank has become entangled in the kind of problem that does not commonly afflict its brethren. A disquieting amount of islanders have been duped into buying into a get-rich-quick scheme which promises that with an investment of just 250 Solomon Island dollars, they will be rewarded with millions in return. An attractive proposition you may think, but these days most people have accepted the folly of trying to turn base metals into gold. The concerned central bank governor, Rick Houenipwela, has been doing his best to make people think otherwise, but faces an uphill battle: "We have been trying to inform and educate the public about this. Unfortunately, there are many people in our community here who have probably been converted to a cargo cult kind of mentality, to the extent that common sense no longer is any sense to anyone."

Such a large amount of the island's inhabitants have fallen for this ploy - several thousands of the impoverished island's half a million - that it is beginning to pose a genuine threat to the liquidity of its financial system, prompting Houenipwela to intervene - although not in the normal sense. He has challenged to a public debate the unscrupulous mastermind of this knavish scheme, who goes by the name of "Dr Jenny", a retired local nurse who claims to have graduated from a medical school in Fiji. If this scheme, disingenuously labelled the Family Charitable Trust, is for real, then they should prove it.

Apparently they have been claiming that the source of the money for payouts will include the central bank and aid donors, although this is evidently untrue. Promoters of the scheme have since declared - falsely - that the central bank is interfering with the transfer of funds to the Solomon Islands by advising commercial banks not to open accounts for the funds. They are now, in a vain attempt to try and save face, trying to shift the blame onto the central bank, as befuddled investors are wondering why their money is still not yielding any returns. A spokesman for the central bank confidently tells me that "Dr Jenny still has not admitted her lies, but sooner or later they will catch up on her."

 

DINKIC TELLS PM TO MIND HIS OWN BUSINESS

Yugoslavia's central bank governor, Mladjan Dinkic, seems to be lumbered with the irritating task of having to set things to right every time his economically ham-fisted prime minister blurts out inappropriate statements. Much to Dinkic's horror, he has recently been making ill-advised comments about the exchange rate. Dinkic seemed exasperated: "I consider the kind of statement made by Prime Minister [Zoran] Djindjic in respect of a change of the dinar exchange rate to be irresponsible and incompetent". This is not the first time the PM has been blabbering about changing the exchange rate, and Dinkic prefers him to stay off his patch, firmly drawing a line between their respective duties: "If that is what Djindjic wants, I, as the central bank governor, cannot uphold it and I consider that the prime minister should concern himself with matters on which he is competent. That means he should focus more on corruption in state institutions and on combating crime."

Dinkic suggested that if the prime minister was worried about exports, he should first think about stimulating domestic growth. With a certain amount of good humour, he reassured any who might have taken the prime minister's comments seriously: "The people have already grown accustomed to Prime Minister Djindjic's excursions with regard to the dinar rate of exchange. However, as nothing has happened so far, I think that his philosophising and theorizing will not upset them. The National Bank of Yugoslavia and the republican ministry of finance are taking care of the dinar rate of exchange, and as both institutions pursue a responsible policy, the dinar rate of exchange will remain stable."

 

BANK BOMBERS CONVICTED

Nearly seven years after the catastrophic bombing of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka in January 1996 when nearly 100 people were killed and over 1,000 injured, the perpetrators of this ghastly crime have received their comeuppance. The leader of the Tamil Tiger rebels Velupillai Prabhakaran and three of his henchmen have been meted out a 200-year prison sentenced by the Colombo High Court. Ten were accused in the case, indicted on a total of 712 counts, including intention to cause death and committing murder, destruction of state property by attacking the central bank, and provoking violence. Only one escaped, the intelligence wing chief, as there was not enough evidence connecting him to the case.

 

IT'S JUST VERY DIFFICULT, YOU SEE...

No one doubts that the situation in Argentina is very complicated. It is now ten months since the country experienced the largest sovereign debt default in history, and this was always going to be tricky to clean up. But asked by a reporter at the IMF's most recent press briefing why he thought the Fund still hadn't reached an agreement with Argentina, and why it is so difficult for Argentina to have a political consensus, the usually silver-tongued Tom Dawson, the IMF's head of external communications, was lost for words, and seemed just to repeat the question - over and over again...

"Well, I mean, I think there are any number of difficulties. It is a complex situation. The economic situation is quite difficult. The political situation, there are not only issues of consensus, you have issues of the prospective election. So it's a difficult situation I would say not just for the Argentines, for the Fund as well, and for the international financial community. So it is quite difficult - quite clearly one of the most difficult cases that we have ever had to work on, but that doesn't deter us from doing our very best to work with the authorities. And I think the authorities certainly are committed to continuing to work as closely with us as they possibly can. But it is in a number of areas, economic and political, an extremely difficult situation."

 

IAN'S SECOND COMING?

Ian Plenderleith, who only recently bid farewell to the Bank of England, at a ceremony where most people were crying, and Eddie George gave a most moving obituary, is set to make a comeback. Some say he is being considered for the next (second) deputy governor of the Bank, when Mervyn King gets his due promotion to the top slot. That would leave Sir Andrew Large as one deputy, but nobody to mind the ship as the second deputy governor. Newsmakers cannot yet confirm this rumour. But it would make sense, given Ian's huge competence, and the apparent dearth of other competent candidates. If he is not to be DG, then some other eminent role is surely beckoning.

Then he can time his second tearful departure. Two pensions are better than one. They say that some former BOE employees have collected three or four. And quite right too. Good central bankers are not two-a-penny.


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© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.

Benedict Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
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