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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
13 November 2000
NEWS THIS WEEK
* Quarterly Journal
of Central Banking
* Interview with David Klein
* Academic papers about central banking
* Tosovsky at the Financial Stability Institute
* Gronkiewicz-Waltz at the EBRD
* Balcerowicz best for top central bank post
* Finance minister Jarai likely for Hungary bank governorship
* China confirms Wu Xiaoling as forex chief
* Algerian bank chief sees 3.8% 2000 growth
* Bank Indonesia says using key tools to help rupiah
* Yugoslav central bank governor resigns
* Salameh - new Cabinet takes heat off pound
* BOJ chief meets China's Zhu
* Husain wants banking consolidation in Pakistan
* Montenegro sends mixed signals after central bank move
* BOE George - Europe equity market integration will take time
* Bahrain develops Islamic banking regulatory regime
* Women in central banking
* BNB select KPMG as auditors
PAYMENT SYSTEMS CORNER
* Central Bank of Turkey
goes live with the real-time DvP SSS
* CPSS - Disclosure framework for securities settlement
CAN YOU HELP?
* Fraud management and
internal audit in central banks
* Economic intelligence in central banks
PAPER OF THE WEEK
* Steve Hanke - The
disregard for currency board realities
* Kurt Schuller on monetary sovereignty
* Glenn Rudebusch - Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing
BOOK OF THE MONTH
* Aerdt Houben - The
evolution of monetary policy strategies in Europe
* BIS - Managing foreign debt and liquidity risks
**************************************
CENTRAL BANK NEWS
**************************************
Quarterly Journal of Central Banking
The latest issue of the "Quarterly
Journal of Central Banking" has interviews with three central
bank governors - Germany's Ernst Welteke, Israel's David Klein
and Poland's Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz. Ernst Welteke's interview
is available on our website (http://www.centralbanking.co.uk).
There is also an exclusive article by Governor of the Eastern
Caribbean central bank, K Dwight Venner. A full list of the contents
of the journal is available on the website.
**************************************
Interview with David Klein
Asked by "Central Banking"
journal about the implications for the Israeli economy from a
suspension of the peace process, Bank of Israel Governor David
Klein said, "The economic implications depend on the nature
of the 'suspension'. I assume that the peace process is irreversible
in one way or another, and, therefore, the medium term repercussions
for the Israeli economy of these recent events will not be material.
This means the government will stick to its current macroeconomic
strategy to maintain fiscal discipline, price stability, trade
liberalisation and structural reforms."
**************************************
Academic papers about central banking
As an expansion of our online
services, I am now Editor of an email distribution list at the
website of "New Economic Papers" in central banking.
If you would like to receive free round up of major academic papers
written about central banking visit the following website and
subscribe: http://netec.wustl.edu/NEP/ (it is the fourth list
down called nep-cba) or simply send an email to me and I will
subscribe you.
**************************************
Tosovsky at the Financial Stability Institute
Czech National Bank Governor Josef Tosovsky has announced that he is hopping off the hot seat at the helm of the central bank to head the Financial Stability Institute at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. This heralds the end of an era at the central bank. With the exception of a six-month stint when he was prime minister of a caretaker government, he is the only central bank governor the Czech Republic has ever had.
It has not been an easy year for Tosovsky who has faced fierce criticism from high profile government officials including the ex-president. Tosovsky announced earlier in the year that he was running for the vice presidency of the European Bank for Reconstruction, a job which was eventually taken by Polish central banker Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz.
Tosovsky's resignation announcement on October 31 came only four days after the approval of a controversial amendment to legislation governing central bank operations. The new CNB bill also slashes the salaries of the CNB's staff by 40%, including those of board members. The decision to take the job at the BIS surprised almost everybody including the central bank board who had thought he might even stay at the bank. Tosovsky will start at the BIS on December 1.
Exactly who will occupy Tosovsky's
vacated chair has already been the subject of much speculation.
A number of names have been floated, most frequently those of
CNB's two vice governors, Zdenek Tuma and Oldrich Dedek. Also
mentioned has been the Czech Republic's representative with the
International Monetary Fund, Jiri Jonas; Jan Svejnar, director
of the William Davidson Institute and professor of Business Administration
at University of Michigan; Zdenek Bakala, the head of brokerage
Patria Finance; and Finance Minister Pavel Mertlik, or his deputy,
Jan Mladek.
**************************************
Gronkiewicz-Waltz at the EBRD
8 November
In an interview with the Poland-based Warsaw Business Journal Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz said that she had "never planned to become vice president of the EBRD." She had met Mr. Lemierre, the EBRD president, for the first time at the 200th anniversary of Banque de France in May, but she said that they didn't speak about the job.
Asked why she had decided to leave now she said, "It's been nine years of work here. I think that's a long time. I think that whatever the opinion, this (new job) will be the highest position held by a Polish person. I think it's a very interesting job because the EBRD offers financing through different instruments for former communist countries. I think it's very important for Poland to have this transformation process going forward in countries such as Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and other former Soviet republics as well as poor countries. And at the same time not to stop the financing of projects in more advanced economies like Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary."
Asked about what will be her
main responsibilities with the EBRD, she said, "I think that
generally the EBRD is a similar institution to our bank here.
It makes decisions in a collegial way through the board and the
board of directors. So they are not projects undertaken by one
person. I was part of a collegial body. That's one thing. Also,
I will have responsibility for personnel and administration. As
a deputy president there, I'll have my office, an internal office
and a legal department. Because I'm the only lawyer among our
deputies, I'll also have the legal department."
**************************************
Balcerowicz best for top central bank post
9 November
Poland's liberal former finance
minister Leszek Balcerowicz would be the best candidate to replace
Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, the outgoing central bank governor, Poland's
deputy premier told the best-selling Gazeta Wyborcza daily on
Thursday. Under Polish law her replacement will be chosen by president
Aleksander Kwasniewski and has to be approved by the country's
highly fractured, right-leaning parliament. The ex-communist Kwasniewski
has said he was considering 7-8 candidates, including Balcerowicz,
for the key post, but analysts are concerned the replacement process
may be onerous as he will have to muster a majority vote in a
hostile legislature.
**************************************
Finance minister Jarai likely for Hungary bank governorship
November 7
Hungarian finance minister Zsigmond
Jarai will likely be the successor of Gyorgy Suranyi, president
of the National Bank of Hungary (MNB), when Suranyi's mandate
expires in March 2001, according to government sources cited by
the daily Nepszabadsag. According to the daily, the decision has
already been made and will be publicly announced following the
adoption of the two-year budget in parliament. However, at a press
conference, Jarai said that to the best of his knowledge, the
article was only guesswork. For the time being, the issue is not
on the agenda, he stressed.
**************************************
China confirms Wu Xiaoling as forex chief
November 7
China announced the appointment
of Wu Xiaoling as director general of the State Administration
of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Wu had been acting head of the foreign
exchange policy body since May, when Li Fuxiang died from a fall
from a hospital building. Wu would continue to hold her current
post as vice governor of the People's Bank of China, the central
bank. Wu was previously head of the Shanghai branch of the central
bank and was Li's predecessor as head of SAFE. The body, which
sets foreign exchange policy, is now studying changes to its foreign
exchange management rules as China prepares to enter the World
Trade Organisation.
**************************************
Algerian bank chief sees 3.8% 2000 growth
Algeria's oil-dominated economy
is expected to achieve 3.8% growth this year, up from 3.2% in
1999, but lower than the 5% expansion achieved in 1998, central
bank governor Abdelwahab Keramane told parliament last week. Keramane
said despite insufficient direct foreign investment and unfavourable
weather conditions for agriculture, the surge in oil prices has
made it possible for the economy to grow this year. The country's
balance of payments is currently $4.5 billion in favour of Algeria,
while the foreign exchange reserves at the end of October amounted
to $9.6 billion, compared with $8.9 billion in September and only
$4.4 billion in 1999.
**************************************
Bank Indonesia says using key tools to help rupiah
November 7
Bank Indonesia said last week
it was using several key tools to help boost the rupiah. "Higher
interest rates, intervention and monitoring of banks' (foreign
exchange trading)," acting central bank governor Anwar Nasution
told reporters when asked what the bank was doing to help the
rupiah. Nasution said there was no decision yet on whether to
lower the limit on banks' maximum open forward position or to
keep it at the current $5 million.
**************************************
Yugoslav central bank governor resigns
November 3
Yugoslavia's central bank governor
Dusan Vlatkovic formally resigned on Friday as the country's parliament
prepared to appoint a new government. Vlatkovic's resignation
had been widely expected after former Yugoslav president Slobodan
Milosevic was forced by a mass uprising last month to admit defeat
in elections to reformer Vojislav Kostunica. Mladjan Dinkic, a
leading opposition economist and chief coordinator for the G17
independent think tank, has been proposed to parliament as the
new governor.
**************************************
Salameh - new Cabinet takes heat off pound
November 2
Lebanon's central bank governor
Riad Salameh said that the pressure on the Lebanese pound had
eased substantially since the formation of the new government
and would continue to do so in the near future. "We expect
the supply of dollars in the market to increase significantly
in the next few weeks," Salameh said at a conference organized
by the Union of the Arab Banks. He added that the central bank
had not intervened this week to help shore up the Lebanese pound.
The central bank did not say how much of its foreign-exchange
reserves it has spent to defend the pound so far this year, although
press reports have put the figure at $600 million. The central
bank does not release figures for its net foreign-exchange reserves,
with which it intervenes in the currency markets. Gross foreign-currency
reserves, including the deposits of commercial banks with the
central bank, dropped to $6.3 billion in mid-October from $7.6
billion at the end of 1999.
**************************************
BOJ chief meets China's Zhu
November 3
Bank of Japan governor Masaru
Hayami met Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji and the two countries expressed
their wish for enhanced economic and trade cooperation, a BOJ
official said. This marks the first time the head of Japan's central
bank had met the Chinese premier on a bilateral level, he said.
Hayami briefed Zhu on the Japanese economy and told him stability
in the yen would help trade relations, the BOJ official said.
"He (Zhu) said the recovery of the Japanese economy is good
for the world economy, for the Asian economy and the Chinese economy,"
the BOJ official said. "He also put a great emphasis on the
expectations of the enhanced relationship between the two countries,
China and Japan, and between the two central banks."
**************************************
Husain wants banking consolidation in Pakistan
November 3
Pakistan's central bank governor
Ishrat Husain said he wants fewer, but stronger financial institutions
in Pakistan which can mobilise and allocate resources in a cost
effective and efficient manner. Husain said there are too many
financial institutions in Pakistan with a weak capital base, rudimentary
technology, inadequate human resources and a low capacity to absorb
financial shocks.
**************************************
Montenegro sends mixed signals after central bank move
November 2
A decision by Motenegro to set up a central bank has further loosened its ties to Serbia, but not broken the monetary affiliation between the two federation partners, Montenegrin premier Filip Vujanovic said. But, a day earlier, a banker and senior official of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Bozidar Gazivoda said the creation of the central bank meant that Montenegro in effect had ditched the Yugoslav dinar currency.
Vujanovic said: "We will
have to find a way to make the dual currency system continue to
exist. We will also start talks with Serbia on how to make the
two systems co-exist," he said. The new Montenegrin central
bank will not be an issuing authority. It will manage foreign
exchange reserves, supervise the monetary system and commercial
banks.
**************************************
BOE George - Europe equity market integration will take time
October 31
Creating a pan-European equities market can't be forced through from on high and is likely to be slow in coming, Bank of England governor Eddie George said. "We are already seeing in the market participants fumbling their way to try and find how to arrive at the end point, and I think that process will be going on for some considerable time," George told a panel of parliamentarians of the House of Lords, the UK's upper chamber.
George was asked to comment
on London's future position as a world financial centre in light
of the London Stock Exchange's failed merger with Frankfurt's
Deutsche Boerse and the hostile bid from Sweden's OM Group. While
the recent developments on Europe's exchanges may have produced
uncertainty, George said he believes there can be no forced integration
of European markets. Instead, he said, market participants should
find the best way of operating themselves.
**************************************
Bahrain develops Islamic banking regulatory regime
October 29
Bahrain said it has developed a regulatory system for Islamic banking in the island state, and the framework was being considered by banks. Bahrain Monetary Agency governor Sheikh Abdullah al-Khalifa said the framework included both the standards developed by the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions and the Basle committee's various guidelines. "I am pleased to report that the agency...has developed a framework, known as Prudential Information and Regulations for Islamic Banks (IPRI)," Sheikh Abdullah told a two-day Islamic banking conference which opened in Manama. The framework covers capital adequacy for credit and market risk, asset quality, regulatory treatment of investment accounts both restricted and unrestricted, analysis of earnings quality and prudential requirements concerning liquidity management, he said.
**************************************
Women in central banking
In continuation of my survey of prominent female central bankers, I would like to thank all of those who sent this week's names to me. Are central banks better places for women to develop their careers than in the private sector? Any views - on or off the record - are welcome.
Sheryl Kennedy, deputy governor,
Bank of Canada
Ruta Vainiene, member of the board of directors, Bank of Lithuania
Stase Strickaite, deputy chairwoman of the governor, Bank of Lithuania
Patricia Jackson, head of financial industry and regulation division,
Bank of England
Meryln Lowther, deputy director & chief cashier, Bank of England
Marlene Bayne, deputy director of banking supervision, Central
Bank of Barbados
Vesna Ozanic, head of human resources, Croatian National Bank
J R Figoroa-Semeleer, executive director, Central Bank of Aruba
Audrey Anderson, deputy governor for supervision, Bank of Jamaica
Gayon Hosin head of financial institutions supervisory division,
Bank of Jamaica
Myrtle Halsall, head of research, Bank of Jamaica
Evadnie Sterling, chief internal auditor, Bank of Jamaica
Jacqueline Morgan, director, public relations, Bank of Jamaica
Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, deputy governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Christine Cumming, executive vice president, New York Fed
Suzanne Cutler, executive vice president, New York Fed
Barbara Walter, senior vice president, New York Fed
Saowanee Suwannacheep, senior director, Bank of Thailand
Erratum: Last week's list included Darcy Boyce, deputy governor, Central Bank of Barbados. Mr. Boyce is male! Apologies for the mistake.
**************************************
BNB select KPMG as auditors
9 November
On the basis of the held public
tender the BNB Managing Board selected KPMG to be the international
auditor of the Bulgarian National Bank for the years 2000, 2001
and 2002.
**************************************
PAYMENT SYSTEMS CORNER
**************************************
Central Bank of Turkey goes live with the real-time DvP SSS
30 October 2000
Central Bank of Turkey has gone live with new securities settlement system named ESTS (Electronic Securities Transfer and Settlement System) after three years of development. On October 31, the first day of use, 1,800 securities transactions were settled in the new system.
The ESTS is processing the primary and second market operations of government bonds and bills. The Turkish central bank was amongst the first central banks that had RTGS payment systems. In April 1992, central bank initiated the first generation RTGS system, named TIC-RTGS, that was renewed in April 2000 with the additional functionalities like hot-standby disaster centre and central queuing mechanism. TIC-RTGS is now running with the participation of 85 banks and with a daily average value of 13 billion dollars and volume of 100,000 payment messages.
The ESTS System is integrated
with the TIC-RTGS, working in real time DvP (model 1); hence,
once the buy and sell transactions are matched in the system funds
and securities are settled simultaneously. The ESTS is also integrated
with the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) through the ISE's settlement
bank, Takasbank, providing final settlement of funds and securities
to take place in real time at the accounts of the ESTS.
For more information email: <Can.Okay@tcmb.gov.tr>
**************************************
Disclosure framework for securities settlement
In February 1997 the CPSS/BIS
published the " Disclosure framework for securities settlement"
that was elaborated together with IOSCO (http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss20.htm).
Many securities settlement systems have in the meantime made information
on their system's operation and its allocation of risks available
to the general public /http://www.bis.org/publ(cpss20resp.htm).
The latest edition to the list of disclosures is from the Polish
"Krajowy Depozyt Papierów Wartosciowych" - KDPW
SA (The National Depository for Securities; September 2000). The
text can be accessed directly by using the following link:
http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss20r21.htm
**************************************
CAN YOU HELP?
**************************************
Fraud management in central banks
Peter Mahlaela is in the process
of bench marking the South African Reserve Bank's Fraud Management
strategy against other central banks. Please contact me (bweller@centralbanking.co.uk)
or Peter (Peter.Mahlaela@resbank.co.za) if you have any information
on ways other central banks manage fraud.
**************************************
Economic / competitive intelligence
I have been asked to find out about "economic intelligence" activity in central banks. Economic intelligence is information processing/tracking/analysis which is destined for the strategic decision making. The main objective of the central bank is to obtain credibility. This credibility is supported by the availability of the most strategic information. Indeed, one of the functions of central bank representative offices is as economic intelligence unit - i.e. to see all the important information of the host country, and then determine the appropriate strategy/economic policy. Questions to be answered are:
1. Is economic intelligence
important for central banks or the banking system in general?
2. Which department has carried out economic intelligence activity
in other central banks - for instance in Banque de France, in
Bank of England, Federal Reserve, ... and so on?
3. What are the tools (data-mining, and other technological aspects)
used by the economic intelligence unit in the central bank?
4. Which central banks are recommended to be visited (for the
benchmarking) ... or may be also another financial/banking/economics
institutions?
Please email me at BWELLER@CENTRALBANKING.CO.UK
**************************************
CURRENCY CORNER
**************************************
England revised £10 banknote
The Bank of England has issued
a revised design £10 banknote on the 7th November with similar
changes which were applied to the £20 note last year. The
most notable change is the addition on the reverse of the portrait
of Charles Darwin which replaces that of Charles Dickens. The
new note also includes a hologram applied to the centre on the
obverse and a relocated segmented security thread which can now
be seen on the reverse. The re-design is by Andrew Ward and is
the first banknote designed wholly by this artist. In keeping
with the upgrading of the security features on Bank of England
banknotes. It is expected that the £50 note will also undergo
similar alterations in the near future. For more information see
the Bank of England website (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk) or
London Banknote and Monetary Research Centre (http://www.lbmrc.co.uk)
**************************************
New Egyptian banknote
8 November
Egypt will issue a new 100 Egyptian
pounds (about 27 U.S. dollars) note in the market next week. Egyptian
central bank Governor Ismail Hassan said that the new bank note
is designed to prevent illegal groups from forging fake notes
**************************************
PAPER OF THE WEEK
**************************************
"The disregard for currency board realities"
Published in the Cato Journal
This is an interesting article by Professor Steve Hanke of John Hopkin University on this highly topical subject. It is the only place where you can find an event study of the performance of the new currency board systems of the 1990s.
For copies of this article,
email Steve Hanke on: HANKE@JHU.EDU
**************************************
"Kurt Schuller on monetary sovereignty"
Kurt Schuler, who works in the
US senate's joint economic committee and one of the leading experts
on currency boards and dollarisation, has just released a new
paper he has written on monetary sovereignty. It is scheduled
to be published next year in a book of essays about dollarisation.
http://users.erols.com/kurrency/monsov.htm
**************************************
"Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and
monetary policy inertia"
By Glenn Rudebusch, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Abstract: Numerous studies have used quarterly data to estimate monetary policy rules or reaction functions that appear to exhibit a very slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate. The conventional wisdom is that this gradual adjustment reflects a policy inertia or interest rate smoothing behaviour by central banks. However, such quarterly monetary policy inertia would imply a large amount of forecastable variation in interest rates at horizons of more than three months, which is contradicted by evidence from the term structure of interest rates. The illusion of monetary policy inertia may reflect the episodic, unforecastably persistent shocks that central banks face. For the full paper, click on:
http://www.frbsf.org/econrsrch/workingp/2000/wp00-10.pdf
For other papers by this author, see:
http://www.frbsf.org/econrsrch/economists/grudebusch.html
**************************************
BOOK OF THE MONTH
**************************************
"The Evolution of Monetary Policy Strategies in Europe"
by Aerdt Houben, including an introduction by Wim Duisenberg
(published by Kluwer, ISBN 0-7923-7869-5)
A new book on monetary policy in Europe by Aerdt Houben, the head of the monetary analysis division of the Netherlands central bank. Mr Houben was also a member of the monetary policy committee of the European System of Central Banks, and was closely involved in the discussions on monetary policy strategy at the start of EMU.
The book provides a comprehensive
review of the advances in European policymaking over the past
decades. It examines the considerations that determine a central
bank's monetary strategy and explains how these considerations
have featured in recent European monetary history. In so doing,
the book establishes what European monetary policy makers have
learned (or should have learned) and how they learned it. At the
same time, Aerdt Houben maps out the rich monetary traditions
that flow together in the new-born Eurosystem and provides important
insight into a prime influence on the system's decision-making
- that is, the participating countries' past experiences. The
book's distinctiveness lies in its sweeping coverage of policy
developments in the individual EU central banks, its penetrating
analysis of the country-specific learning curves and its balanced
assessment of the viability of different monetary policy strategies,
including that recently adopted by the ECB. It combines theoretical
insights with an in-depth empirical study of monetary policy design
in Europe, highlighting the features that have contributed to
success or failure. While the subject of monetary policy strategy
(and especially that of the Eurosystem) is currently very topical,
the book's detailed information on how monetary has actually been
implemented in each of the 15 EU countries makes it a key reference
work with a long life-span.
For more information email: A.C.F.J.HOUBEN@DNB.NL
**************************************
Managing foreign debt and liquidity risks
BIS Policy paper No. 8
September 2000
http://www.bis.org/publ/plcy08.pdf
A small group of senior central bankers from the emerging markets met at the BIS for two days in December 1999 to discuss the management of foreign debt and liquidity. A book containing the papers discussed at the seminar has now been released on the BIS website. The first paper in the book provides an overview of these issues and the papers that follow highlight the experiences of specific economies.
The issues discussed include
the idea of "national liquidity", the question of how much government
debt should be issued domestically and how much externally, the development of domestic bond markets
and the relationship between government debt management and reserve
management. The papers also examine possible policies towards
the management of the private sector's external debt. Such policies
include prudential rules for banks, capital controls, disclosure
requirements and regulations on corporate borrowing.
Table of contents
Managing foreign debt and liquidity risks in emerging economies:
an overview
John Hawkins and Philip Turner
Managing foreign debt and liquidity risks in Chile
Jorge Marshall
Managing the external balance sheet: a Hong Kong perspective
Tony Latter
Managing foreign debt and liquidity: India's experience
Y V Reddy
Stabilisation, vulnerability and liquidity as a safety net: some
thoughts evoked by the Israeli experience
Sylvia Piterman
Policy responses to strengthen liquidity risk management in Korea
Bo Yung Chung
Macroeconomic aspects of the management of external debt and liquidity:
reflections on the Mexican experience
José Sidaoui
Poland's vulnerability to turbulence in financial markets
Ryszard Kokoszczynski and Andrzej Slawinski
Managing foreign debt and liquidity risks in emerging markets:
selected issues from a South African perspective
James Cross
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
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Mander
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