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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
26 May 2003
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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/
By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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What Is Central Bank Speak?
"This is a language in which it is possible to speak without saying anything." Mike Moscow, President of the Chicago Fed, 2002 "Since becoming a central banker, I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said." --Alan Greenspan, testimony to Congress, 1987
How Central Banks Receive Visitors
As Newsmakers goes about its job of peering into the business of central banks around the world, we are struck by the contrasts in the different ways central banks receive visitors. Some adorn their reception areas with smiling friendly receptionists, who usher you into a well-furnished waiting room where you can pass the time agreeably until your host, or a messenger, comes to fetch you for your appointment. Others seem determined to make it as difficult as possible to enter the precincts, surrounding themselves with heavy security, subjecting every visitor to intense screening and scrutiny, taking your passport into custody, and providing no waiting area. Others have decentralised or dispersed to a number of buildings located in various parts of the city so that you can turn up for an appointment only to find that you have to take another taxi elsewhere. Once we were almost threatened at gunpoint.
Newsmakers invites readers to tell us their stories of visiting central banks. In the case of central bankers, please tell us if your bank pays any attention to the welcome it extends to visitors. There will be a prize for the best story!
Banque De France Lite
First there was Pepsi Lite, now there is Central Bank Lite - a slimmed down central bank, a central bank on a healthy diet shedding high calorie staff. Rumblings continue in France over the plans for a Banque de France Lite. Proposals backed by the governor to cut the number of branches from 211 to 96 brought nearly 40% according to the bank (75% says a union representative we spoke to) of the employees out on strike on May 6 and 80% of regional branches were closed. Five thousand workers protested in Paris, unions claim, with support from local politicians, but the bank's operations in the capital were not affected. Negotiations are now taking place between the heads of unions (there are seven of them) and the governor over the bank's public service contract with the government, which will set the tone for the restructuring. Visitors to the Banque de France now report placards on neighbouring buildings denouncing Trichet's plans.
For Trichet, who reorganised the note printing and other departments at the bank, this would represent the culmination of his programme of restructurings and signal to Frankfurt and Brussels that he is a man who gets things done. While he is unlikely therefore to back down, the current climate of public sector protest in France does not make it easy to play hardball for too long. However, more strikes are in the pipeline and June looks set to be an eventful time at the bank. Whether it will witness a return to the events of the 1987 strikes remains to be seen, but Newsmakers can't help wondering where exactly picket lines fit into the ECB's operating framework of monetary policy.
Problems In The Pacific
The financial system in the Solomon Islands - including the central bank - was momentarily paralysed earlier this month, after a peculiar turn of events came to a head. Last November, Newsmakers reported how it was being held to ransom by the harridan "Dr Jenny", mastermind of a cynical get-rich-quick scheme designed to bleed credulous islanders of their cash. This pyramid scheme was sucking liquidity out of the economy to such an extent that central bank governor Rick Houenipwela was forced to exhort the public not to believe this particular brand of mumbo jumbo and invest in this diabolical scheme, benignly named the Family Charitable Fund (FCF).
Ultimately the FCF proved no match for the central bank, but for a time it had the upper hand. It had been demanding Houenipwela to revoke a letter he issued to commercial banks in 2002 advising them to be wary of the FCF. Incensed by this, and claiming that the central bank was actually forcefully preventing banks from opening accounts for the FCF (which it cannot legally do, even though the FCF was itself illegal), it all got a bit ugly. As the central bank told Newsmakers, if the governor didn't revoke the letter, "harm would be caused to the governor, central bank staff and central bank premises." So, to protect his employees, Houenipwela was left with no option but to issue what the central bank describes as "a rather meaningless letter" urging commercial banks to disregard his previous letter of advice.
The situation worsened when FCF investors started pestering commercial banks for their money. As the central bank explained, "This was when ANZ [one of the main banks] decided that they would not be intimidated by a pyramid scheme and decided to close its operations until the security situation improved. By Monday all the commercial banks and the central bank decided to take collective action to close their operations."
A meeting was then held with the police, commercial banks, the central bank and the prime minister's office, resulting in the government's assurances that the police would lock up wayward FCF leaders and guard bank premises. With the troublemakers safely behind bars and the demise of the FCF assured, by the next day it was business as usual. But quite some excitement for a sleepy Pacific island!
Real Funny
Most central bankers when they retire go to a better paid job in the private sector, resume academic studies, or maybe just pack it all in. Not Arminio Fraga. Having recently stepped down as governor of the Brazilian central bank, unconventionally, he seems to see a future for himself in comedy. Perhaps the stress of running the central bank was all a bit too much. He was last spotted on Brazil's prime time comedy show disguised as a taxi driver and cracking self-referential gags.
Bloomberg reports that Fraga has been cast as some know-it-all cabbie who freely offers his opinion on economic affairs. An inquisitive customer reading the papers says to Fraga, "My goodness, I can't understand this dollar that goes up and down, up and down all the time. [Pause, followed by a look of recognition.] Hey, don't I know you from some place? Aren't you in the eight o'clock soap opera?" [Here comes Fraga's punch line.] "No, actually, I think you saw me more often during the nightly news programme." Regular watchers of the show would appreciate that in fact Fraga had previously regularly been the object of satire on that very same programme. In one episode, Fraga's character admitted to trying to trip up the dollar with his foot when his attempt to make it slip over with a banana skin had been foiled. The idea being that it would fall against the Brazilian real, or something like that. Priceless.
Touche, Trichet!
Fraga is not the only central banker to have been the victim of biting satire. Only it seems that in ECB wannabe Jean-Claude Trichet's case, he just didn't get it - he is the latest person to have fallen foul of the British comic sensation Ali G. Trichet apparently thinks he is "magnifique", according to the Independent (a UK newspaper), having enjoyed his show on French cable TV. Imagine Trichet's amusement when it was pointed out to him that this character was not the clown he appears to be, but in fact a witty satirist of British street cool: "Non, ce n'est pas possible." (Ali G, a British entertainer, does spoof interviews with public figures. )
Nicholl Extends His Stay
Against all the odds, Peter Nicholl - the New Zealander who was parachuted in to take charge of Bosnia-Herzegovina's central bank on account of the complications with appointing a national - is to stay in the job a little while longer. According to the law laid down in 1997 governing the central bank, the governor for the first six years must be a foreigner (ie Nicholl); and after that a Bosnian citizen. Nicholl's six-year term expires this year, but he is now to stay an extra 18 months until the end of 2004. How, you may well reasonably ask? Simple really: he was made a Bosnian citizen. The presidency has presumably decided that the country is not quite ready to take the risk of appearing too ethnically partial by appointing a national (ie from one of the three major ethnic groups - Bosniaks, Serbs or Croats) as governor. It therefore had to engage in a little central bank intervention, which due its uniqueness, in this case may be acceptable. As Nicholl explained to Newsmakers, "While it is formally the governing board that appoints the governor in future, the presidency have clearly stated their support for my continuation as governor."
They have instead opted for the more gradual approach: when Nicholl steps down, he will be replaced by one of the current vice-governors, Kemal Kozaric, who is a Bosniak (the other two vice-governors represent the Serbs and the Croats). Nicholl told Newsmakers, "It is a very good sign that they have been able to agree now on the person they support to become the governor when I leave." Nicholl gave the choice of Kozaric his blessing, deeming him to be a "good choice". To appease the other ethnic groups for the choice of a Bosniak as governor, the presidency has requested that the next internal controller of the central bank be a Croat and the chairman of the managing board of the State Deposit Insurance Agency (a position that is also currently held by Nicholl) should in future be a Serb.
Dinkic's Days Numbered?
Across the border, Mladjan Dinkic has not been as fortunate as Nicholl. Ill-wishers are spreading the word that the governor of the newly formed Serbian National Bank is on the way out. Frankfurt-based Serbian-language daily Vesti recently reported that according to the new central bank law that is said to be currently going through parliament "there isn't the remotest possibility that the current governor could retain his position". Supposedly, Serbian finance minister Bozidar Djelic is scouring the land for a suitable replacement.
But in fact, curiously, nobody at the central bank has seen this bill or even been consulted about it. This makes it difficult to take it seriously at all - the central bank isn't, instead regarding it as something of a phantom bill designed purely to stir up trouble. But it is said to stipulate that the governor must be someone who has worked in the banking industry for at least ten years "and, more importantly, cannot be a member of any party", according to Vesti.
Dinkic is a founder and vice-president of the G17 Plus party, which, although recently formed, is gathering increasing public support. It is highly unlikely to win the next elections, but it is still viewed by the government as competition. Consequently these attacks on Dinkic have been interpreted as political manoeuvres aimed at discrediting him. Despite being outspoken on many issues, he has made a formidable contribution to the revival of the economy, and many see Dinkic as something of a threat - that would be best eliminated. The highly politicised environment in Serbia has meant that politics enters into everything. But Dinkic will not stoop to their level: "I do not comment on street gossip rumours. My work can be checked in the parliament and they can say what is wrong with it."
Will Webb Weather The Storm?
There may be trouble brewing in Peru. The country is mired in political turmoil, as the president, Alejandro Toledo, is beset by squabbling and ineptitude in the party ranks. The economy may be growing faster than any other in Latin America, but media reports have suggested that there is a bit of fisticuffs going on in the central bank between the governor, Richard Webb, and the board. Investigation by Newsmakers can shed some light on this story.
Although the extent of open hostilities in the central bank may be being exaggerated, it seems that the board has been acting provocatively. They have taken a series of administrative measures against Webb's wishes: firing his personal adviser and several other key staff including the general manager that he personally chose.
Many observers have inferred from this that the board is plotting to squeeze Webb out, and have consequently pledged support for the governor. Institutions such as the Banker's Association, and several politicians, have criticised the motivations of some board members in the media, alleging that they are politically driven, and that the more radical among them may be attempting to take control of the bank.
For his part, Webb has until now remained silent. But board members have only exacerbated the situation by breaking central bank policy that the governor is its sole mouthpiece by talking out of turn in an attempt to justify their actions.
Clearly something is wrong. If nothing else, the incident could be said to illustrate what a source has described to Newsmakers as a second-generation problem of independent central banking: "How does one reconcile autonomy with internal malfunctioning? What procedures can be used to resolve internal differences that lead to malfunctioning? Who can be appealed to?"
In Peru, only Congress can dismiss board members, and then only if they are found guilty of "grave misdeeds". This has never happened yet, and it is plain that if such powers are to be invoked, they should tread carefully. Unfortunate precedents could allow future meddling governments to cramp the central bank's independence at will.
Risky Business
Being a senior central banker is a job fraught with risks, as readers will be well aware - they have not only to protect the systemic stability of the financial system, but also increasingly their own personal safety. The trial of Banque de France governor Jean-Claude Trichet is a particularly high profile case, but other examples abound, as Newsmakers recently reported concerning Indonesians who are in the dock for "dubious practice". Now, an ex-central banker in Ukraine has been put in the cooler for five years after being found guilty of violating a law which prohibited the central bank from issuing foreign currency loans to commercial banks. Former first deputy chairman of the board, Volodymyr Bondar, personally authorised a $15 million loan to a local bank via a bank in Zurich, but the prosecution argued successfully that this inflicted "significant damage on the state". Bondar argued that the deal was "of state importance", and has the support of former central bank governor and now centre-right opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko who says the trial was an attempt by the government to get one up on their opponents ahead of the 2004 presidential election. Central banking's a risky business, but somebody's gotta do it.
A Walk Through Time
Visit the bank of England's
flash new museum section of its website where you can discover
all about the venerable institution's history: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/museum/walkthrough/timeline_flash.asp
12 May 2003
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By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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THE GREAT BANK ROBBERY
Forget the looters that ran loose in Iraq after the war. In one fell swoop, Saddam Hussein has put those small-timers to shame by single-handedly snatching double the amount of cash that it took the lot of them three weeks to scavenge. It could even have been the greatest bank heist of all time: after all, $1 billion is no paltry sum. But the brazen nature of it is what is so startling. Not for Saddam any of these fancy hi-tech hacking devices you see in the movies, no need for any of that. A good old-fashioned tractor-trailer combo seems to have done the trick perfectly.
A senior Iraqi official, who remains anonymous on account of his personal safety, told the New York Times that Saddam successfully executed the summary removal of three tractor loads worth of cash from the central bank's coffers. On the eve of the first Baghdad bombings, on March 18, a gang of complicitous minions spent two hours relieving the central bank of what amounted to about a quarter of its foreign exchange reserves. Saddam allegedly entrusted the job to his second son, Qusay, and his own personal assistant, Abid al-Hamid Mahmood, who piled the trailers with $900 million worth of $100 bills and $100 million worth of euros before the bank opened.
They may have been last sighted, according to a colonel in the US special forces, trundling across Iraq's border with Syria, although he was unable to confirm the exact contents of the trailers, or whether they were in fact the same ones. Others allege that the hoards of cash discovered in Saddam's now conquered palaces could account for much of what was taken from the central bank, with as much as $650 million found in one. Meanwhile, Diyaa Habib al-Khayoun, general manager of the state-owned al-Rafidain Bank, upheld to United Press International that $250 million and 18 billion Iraqi dinars were pinched from the bank, but by professional thieves, and it was nothing to do with Saddam.
Whatever the case, it is not known what effect this will have on the Iraqi economy, and anyway Iraqi central bankers may have more pressing things to worry about. For starters, finding a place to work: the elegant building that used to house them lies in smithereens, described by the Associated Press as a "burned out husk", with all nine floors levelled to the ground. Although trumped royally by Saddam, looters, armed with acetylene torches and rocket-propelled grenades, seem to have done a pretty good job at trashing the place. Still, according to Humam Shamaa, an Iraqi economist at the University of Baghdad, operations could resume in another location as "the staff is ready to return if there is security".
Then the central bank has the introduction of a new currency to be thinking about, although it may be that the US Treasury has done quite a bit of the thinking for them. The $1.7 billion in Iraqi funds seized from US banks is being used to pay civil servants, but US officials say it could be another three to six months until a new currency is issued, once a new government is formed. There is no doubt that the Saddam dinar, the currency most widely in use before the war, has had its day. But although there have been ritual burnings of these worthless notes in Iraq, ironically they are selling like hotcakes on online auction sites like eBay - at intriguingly inflated prices: http://listings.ebay.com/pool1/plistings/list/all/category3411/index.html?from=R4.
As for Saddam's super swipe on the central bank, well, you could forgive him. Frankly, anyone else with that kind of cast-iron grip over his central bank would have been eccentric not to do the same. As the New York Times informant put it, "When you get an order from Saddam Hussein, you do not discuss it." Governments the world over may be seething with envy at the kind of sway Saddam had over his central bank. But happily, as far as Newsmakers knows, his position was fairly unique.
U-TURN OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?
Many hearts missed a beat, perhaps even several beats, when the ECB blithely (or so it appeared) let slip that its long-slated monetary policy strategy would be "modified". Rather than keeping inflation between 0-2%, it has now restated this as "below but close to 2%". But beware, the ECB is very touchy on this matter - never suggest to a member of the executive board that it is a "target". Wim Duisenberg almost began frothing at the mouth at such a suggestion at the press conference that preceded this momentous announcement: "I protest against the word 'target'. We do not have a target, as you know, and - as Mr Issing will explain later - we won't have a target."
Furthermore, the ECB also appears to have relegated the notorious first pillar which tracks money growth to something more like a cross-checking mechanism. But the decision to make these changes would not have been taken without some heated discussions, to put it mildly. Is there blood on the boardroom carpet?
Otmar Issing says not. The ECB's chief economist and formerly of the Bundesbank (whose practice of tracking money growth the ECB inherited - or had foisted upon it?), who one would suppose is a keen advocate of the first pillar, protested (perhaps over-enthusiastically) that the process of revising the ECB's monetary policy strategy was a breeze: "It was no trouble. It was not always pleasurable, but it was fascinating... The word 'trouble' is certainly not appropriate in this context."
The ECB's monetary policy has sustained relentless flak from economists and media alike from the very beginning. As Issing put it, "There was a lot of criticism and we do not ignore criticism." And now, presumably, the ECB reckons it has been around for long enough as an institution and has amassed enough credibility for it to be safe to do something about it, without too big an uproar. The ECB is in the extremely fortunate position, as central banks go, in having an almost unprecedented amount of self-determination in policy terms. Although it is legally mandated to achieve "price stability", it is up to the ECB to decide exactly what that is - and to many observers it looks like the ECB has just changed its mind.
More worrying still, particularly for the implications this could have for the ECB's credibility, is that people will quite reasonably wonder what on earth is to stop the ECB doing this again, as and when it pleases? But Professor Issing assures us, "I do not know if this procedure will become regular. My term runs for another three years and I do not expect another evaluation within that period. We are somewhat exhausted and need some recreation now. These studies... cannot be done every day and it would not make sense to do so."
But in any case, the ECB vigorously denies that it has done anything so radical as to change its mind. Issing adamantly maintains, "We have clarified what we always had in mind. Perhaps we have previously not communicated it successfully enough... Even if we had had the same clarification back in 1998, our policy would not have been any different." Nor do they think it will be any different in the future.
So why bother to change it in the first place? Put simply by Wim Duisenberg, "We wanted to improve communication... It is an effort on our part to be better understood than we were in the past." Issing's rather more whimsical take was this: "If you are married and after four years of a happy married life, perhaps one evening you sit together over a glass of wine and think about why you are so happy all the time: nobody would say it does not make sense."
CURRENCY QUANDARY
China's central bank has not escaped the SARS epidemic unscathed. As might be imagined, infected banknotes could present an excellent way for the pestilence to seep through the country unnoticed. As a result, prescient central bankers ordered that banknotes be quarantined for 24 hours and are also exhorting people to use other methods of payment where humanly possible - this despite the fact that medical authorities say there is "no clear evidence" that the pesky bug can be transmitted via banknotes. But, like all good central bankers, they prefer to err on the side of caution. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is compliantly apprehending "suspicious" banknotes to sterilise them with disinfectant and expose them to ultraviolet light for four hours, which apparently does the trick. Possibly of greater concern, since the country is awash with dirty money, rather than launder it - which in most parts of the world would be controversial - the central bank has decided to start a clean sheet and step up its banknote printing operations to make sure there is enough clean money to go round. Presumably this is okay so long as old notes are destroyed at the same rate, which Newsmakers is assured they are - any unwanted inflationary side effects would be unfortunate indeed.
BOON FOR THE BLIND
Meanwhile, Mexican central bankers are laudably planning to overhaul their currency altogether, but for entirely altruistic motives. It is going to introduce a new series of banknotes in consideration for the at least half a million blind or visually impaired Mexicans that have difficulties telling different banknotes apart. Although the bills already contain impressions in relief that are detectable by touch, they will be made more specific and thus more easily identifiable, according to the central bank, thus reducing the potential for the kind of underhand knavery that the blind are occasionally subjected to.
INFORMATION OVERLOAD?
Bombarded from all sides by calls to cut rates, the ECB once again remains sitting on its hands leaving them unchanged. That is all very well - after all, it ought to know best, or that is the idea anyway. As Otmar Issing recently (slightly immodestly) reaffirmed, the ECB is confident in "our conviction that we are the best [central bank in the world]". But Wim Duisenberg seems to be getting a little tetchy in his twilight days at the ECB, fed up with people accusing the ECB of being sluggardly for not cutting rates: "I would like to point out that deciding to keep interest rates unchanged is also an action." But worse, he is also beginning to repeat himself. He appeared almost to lose his cool at the latest press briefing, and ended up leaving some wondering whether the ECB is adequately equipped: "We need more information, we need more information on whether recent developments [to the exchange rate] will continue or peter out. Or will they even reverse? We do not know yet. We have to have more information - we have to know more."
But, all's well that ends well. Wim (who incited much chatter by remarking in his recent annual report that "this will be the last foreword of an ECB annual report to bear my signature") can take solace in the fact that he has one more medal to add to his (already most impressive) collection. The latest country to do him the honour was Austria, which has benevolently bestowed upon him the Grand Decoration of Honour in Gold with Sash for Services to the Republic of Austria (we particularly like the "with sash bit). Apparently, the award is "in recognition of Mr Duisenberg's services to European monetary integration, in particular his key role in the implementation of a stability-oriented monetary policy." And only a month ago the Italians did much the same, magnanimously dubbing him Knight of the Grand Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Italy. What is more, it being Europe Day on 9 May (see here: http://europa.eu.int/abc/symbols/9-may/euday_en.htm), he may well also be basking in self-satisfied glory at his unique and unrepeatable contribution to the formation of the Superstate. So we shouldn't feel too sorry for him.
NEW GOVERNOR IN IRAN
The Iranian central bank's deputy governor Ebrahim Sheibani has succeeded Mohsen Nourbakhsh as governor after his untimely death of a heart attack at the end of March (see his biography here: http://www.cbi.ir/about/nourbakhsh.asp). Sheibani, at the age of 54, has been at the central bank for 14 years, although he seems to have managed to juggle this exacting role with a few others. Educated in the US, he also has a doctorate in economics and has been a professor at Tehran University's economics faculty, quite apart from acting as adviser to Iran's president, Mohammad Khatami.
TONGA TOO
Far-flung Tonga has been blessed with a new governor too. But unusually for central banks, it comes in the shape of a lady: Siosi Cocker Mafi. Tonga is the first Pacific Island nation to entrust the governorship of its central bank to - the horror! - a woman. No, this is a welcome turn of events, for there is a definite dearth of female figureheads at central banks, with no good reason for it. Including Mafi, there is now a sum total of ten female governors in the world's 162 central banks (or 174 if you include the Eurosystem's NCBs) - surely there could be more? There were just eight in 2002, but in El Salvador's central bank, the governor's early departure meant that it also got its first female governor in Luz Maria de Portillo. The majority of lady governors are actually in the Central American/Caribbean region: in Barbados, Bermuda, El Salvador, Guyana and Honduras. Others are in Botswana, Denmark, Malaysia, Sao Tome, and now Tonga. Mafi joined the central bank's research department ten years ago, and was appointed as one of the two deputy governors in 2000, having been an economist at the ministry of finance for three years before joining the central bank.
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Commonwealth Business Council, Banking and Financial Services
Symposium 2003
June 25th 2003 London
Coinciding with the Bank of
England's annual meeting of central bank governors, this symposium
includes presentations on final modifications to Basel II from
BCBS Deputy Secretary General Charles Freeland; on developments
in anti money laundering, fraud or other misuse from FSA Managing
Director Carol Sergeant; and on financial services sector consolidation
from the Bank of England's Dr Mario Blejer. For details contact
Genny Rowson, Commonwealth Business Council, Tel +44 (0)20 7024
8200, Fax: +44 (0)20 7024 8201
http://www.cbc-link.com/cbcnetorg/events/bfss03/Overview.htm
*********************************************************************
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
Benedict
Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications Ltd
6 Langley Street, London WC2H 9JA, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 3625
Fax: +44 (0)20 7836 3608
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk
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