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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
28 July 2003
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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/
By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
******************************************
CROCKETT DEFECTS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR
Sir Andrew Crockett, former head of the BIS now replaced by Malcolm Knight, has silenced speculation as to where he will end up by accepting the job as president of JP Morgan Chase International - a kind of minister-without-portfolio post in which he will report directly to chief executive William Harrison. Like Hans Tietmeyer, another central banking grandee (former governor of the Bundesbank) who has also just defected to the private sector to become senior adviser at Lazard's, Crockett will probably be looked to as a door opener.
Crockett's move keeps up the reputation of the Group of Thirty as an exceptional job centre. Other members to have bagged top jobs recently are Jean-Claude Trichet (soon to be the big man at the ECB), Mervyn King (just made it to the top at the BOE) and Stanley Fischer (practically at the top of Citigroup, but doubtless much better paid). A pity that none of the other G30 members (http://www.group30.org/members.htm) seem willing to take up the gaping hole left by William McDonough (another G30 alumni) at the New York Fed.
SIGNS OF PROGRESS IN IRAQ
If the business of central banking may occasionally seem a touch hairy in Iraq, it isn't all bad. Although Faleh Salman, the man who has now been confirmed as governor of the central bank by the American interim administration, was the hapless victim of a drive-by shooting, he auspiciously escaped unscathed. And in other respects things are beginning to look up.
The central bank has not only now been granted independence for the first time in a long while, but a new batch of Saddam-free notes are to be circulated soon. This follows the mildly inexpedient episode when the Americans were forced to instruct the central bank to circulate a fresh lot of the old 'Saddam' dinars, which awkwardly feature an illustration of the elusive dictator.
But the new notes will instead be a version of the Swiss dinar, which is not only economically but also politically more desirable. It remains for a competent Iraqi government to be put in place, which will have the legitimacy to establish an altogether new currency.
But this may not be for a while - in the meantime, the new dinar will come into being in October, worth the same as the old Saddam dinar, although those lucky enough to be in possession of Swiss dinars (mostly in the Kurdish northern area of Iraq) will be able to get 150 new dinars in return for just one Swiss dinar. Surely a worthwhile investment. A $6 billion budget for the second half of 2003 has also been approved for the central bank, the bulk of which is financed by oil revenues.
But one wouldn't want to give the impression that it's all a breeze. Information that would be taken for granted elsewhere is far from being available - for example, it is still not clear exactly what the level of central bank reserves is. And besides, political stability is a must before any semblance of progress in economic policy can battle forward.
As Salman told Reuters, "The success of any economic policy, be it fiscal or monetary, depends on political stability in the country and from that flows physical security." Something that, after surviving an attempt on his life, he is all too keenly aware of. But he has a clear idea of what needs doing: "Our goal is to inject vitality into the Iraqi economy, to revive the banking sector and to encourage domestic and foreign investment."
McTEER, LONESOME DOVE
While many have criticised the Fed for being not being dovish enough by only cutting rates by a quarter point, this has not spoiled Bob McTeer's good humour. The president of the Dallas Fed in the past earned himself the soubriquet of "Lonesome Dove" (and later the "Lonesome Ranger"), for once voting against the hawkish majority. He observed, "I never thought of myself as a dove, just a kinder and gentler hawk", and has thus been relieved to find that he is "not so lonesome anymore" in this deflation-fearing world.
But that hasn't stopped McTeer from galloping to the rescue of his "hawkish" colleagues, in particular his Richmond counterpart, Alfred Broaddus: "For years Al has had the reputation for being an inflation hawk. Lately, he's becoming a hawk on deflation as well. He doesn't like inflation. He doesn't like deflation. I don't think he even likes flation. One thing's for certain: J. Alfred Broaddus will go to central banker heaven. Only hawks need apply. And he is a hawk in both directions. A symmetrical hawk."
Will McTeer not have a place in central banker heaven? The afterlife is obviously something that has been crossing his mind a great deal recently. In a sophism worthy of the great Lao Tsu, he told a bunch of economics graduates: "Enjoy your life. Remember, life is like a roll of toilet paper. The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes." Better hang on tight...
That must be why he was so concerned to reassure these students that although the job market isn't looking so great, he is confident that the Fed is on top of things: "We're working on it. It's temporary."
LOMAX, LONESOME HAWK
If McTeer is the Lonesome Dove, then Rachel Lomax would seem to be the Lonesome Hawk. The new deputy governor of the Bank of England with responsibility for monetary policy found herself out in the cold somewhat when it emerged that she was the only MPC member not to vote for the recent BOE rate cut.
Only days earlier, appearing for the first time before the UK Treasury Select Committee together with Mervyn King in his new capacity as governor of the BOE, King had disarmingly admitted to having "no idea" whether the new interest rate level of 3.5% was the correct level, having just five days earlier lowered rates by a quarter point.
Why did he say that? Although King clarified his statement by almost pedantically adding that he believes it to be impossible for anyone to know what the exact level of rates should be, it sounded rather odd. Was King attempting to cushion the shock if it emerges one day that he voted with the minority? But now that we know how the voting went, another explanation suggests itself: that he was seeking to avoid an open difference of opinion with his new deputy at their first MPC meeting.
King preferred not to talk of "disagreements" within the MPC, but rather of the fact that individual members make different judgements based on what figures they give more importance to in reaching their decisions. There was certainly no bad feeling between those who had voted differently. It would be ridiculous if they all voted the same way every time.
And Lomax observed that with rates so low, the Bank had strayed into "uncharted territory", making decisions all the trickier. But she strongly rejected the view that the Bank has been "too timid" in cutting interest rates recently. Quite the opposite: the halving of rates over the last two to three years in her opinion was "quite bold".
Nobody could accuse Lomax of being too timid: her recent out-on-a-limb voting decision leaves one in no doubt on that count. At one stroke, she has reassured observers that the brilliant new governor would not tyrannise the MPC (not that he had any intention of dong any such thing), and made it clear that she at least would have no qualms putting up a fight - this is a matter of character, not academic qualifications, as Lomax had earlier told the select committee. She has certainly now proved that she has the character. And evidence that Britain's high street sales boom has not collapsed yet suggests she may have got the economics right as well.
GET READY FOR REDDY
The coast is clear for Dr Yaga Venugopal Reddy, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India until last year, to assume his well-deserved place as governor. Current governor Bimal Jalan is set to abandon the central bank in August, well before the end of his term (in November 2004) in favour of the more fickle world of politics: he has been nominated to sit in the upper house of India's parliament.
Reddy will doubtless replace him with relish, having originally had designs on the governorship back in 1997 - but that time he was beaten to it by Jalan, who was then plunged into the hot seat in the thick of the Asian financial crisis, and is now credited with hauling India out of the mire. But now it is Reddy's turn to show his mettle, as chief monetary policy-maker of one of the world's fastest growing economies.
A bureaucrat made good, Reddy is a rare sort. He succeeded in penetrating the world of economic policy, making radically original contributions and even altering the very course of economic policy in the 1990s when India was liberalised and went through a painful balance of payments crisis.
Reddy earned a name for himself as an adept - and determined - manager of foreign exchange reserves: "There is some personal involvement and excitement for me in this subject. The period 1990-2002 has been a journey from agony to comfort in matters relating to forex reserves; for in 1990-91... the threat of national humiliation as well as discomforting relations with foreign agencies obviously touched on personal pride."
During the Asian crisis in 1997 Reddy again proved his worth by managing the rupee brilliantly, and became known as "Mr Rupee" by the markets after a landmark speech which had an unprecedented effect on the markets. Reddy later said, "This was the first time the central bank talked to the market. The RBI wanted to convey a message and see how the market reacted." It certainly worked.
In August 2002 he left the RBI to become executive director of the IMF. He then commented, "Philosophically, I am against any debt. Borrowing from the IMF, or for that matter anybody, is bad." But Reddy is now to loan his services to India: he will surely do his country proud. His immediate challenge will be how to prevent massive capital inflows from destabilising domestic monetary conditions.
"UPSIDE DOWN WORLD" IN PERU
Peru's central bank is in a state of flux. Its governor, Richard Webb, has abruptly resigned, lamenting to Newsmakers that the central bank is caught up in "an upside down world". Webb's flight was prompted by unworkable differences between himself and the board, and although press reports casually cite administrative problems, Newsmakers has discovered that there is more at stake. The episode illustrates problems inherent in an independent central banking framework.
For Webb, the board's recent behaviour has been unacceptable: "The board has been steadily invading the areas of decision that by law belong to management, undermining the lines of authority in the organisation, and making arbitrary decisions regarding personnel."
The immediate cause of Webb's resignation was the board's peremptory dismissal of his public relations manager and general adviser, "the person with whom I worked most closely in everything except monetary policy decisions." Already the board had binned the general manager that Webb had personally appointed, who he described as "a first class central banker and exceptionally clear-minded and honest person", as well as the economist who was acting as Webb's personal adviser - "the best trained and sharpest monetary economist in the bank."
A source suggested to Newsmakers that most probably a combination of motives lie behind all this: "The most worrying is that the three radicals on the board - all with Leftist backgrounds and all linked personally and politically to Peru's one remaining Marxist congressman - have been seeking to gain control of the bank." However, the source concedes, now that Webb has gone, "In a way they already have." And one of the original board members earlier resigned to be replaced by a determined supporter of expansionary and interventionist economic policies.
The irony of the situation is that, according to Webb, it is precisely the central bank's independence that is protecting this shift to the left from "substantial public and congressional opinion that is calling for a more conservative board." Consequently, more conservative congressmen are logically proposing legislation to trim back the central bank's autonomy, while those on the left "are piously defending the existing strong rules regarding autonomy."
What will happen now? Webb believes it possible that the central bank's autonomy will suffer. Alternatively, "a less rigid law, with more room for judgement, might make autonomy safer in the long run." If anything good is to come out of this, says Webb, "The next time that directors are appointed (in 2006, unless there are resignations before that), the public will pay a lot more attention to who is being selected." That would be for the best.
DINKIC GOES DOWN FIGHTING
If the situation in Peru seems a little unstable, spare a thought for the devastation visited on Serbia's fledgling central bank. The government's use of a legislative blunderbuss to remove Mladjan Dinkic has activated a sort of apocalyptic self-destruction mechanism whereby all of the central bank's big hitters have now resigned - one out, all out.
Some are crying foul play. As a source put it to Newsmakers, "It was a political manoeuvre covered up by formal legislation." Dinkic's team followed suit because the new law seriously jeopardises the central bank's independence. Newsmakers was told, "They will not be responsible for the consequences of the passing of a law that puts the national bank under government control."
Dinkic has heralded ominous consequences in an interview with local news group B92: "Don't expect me to go easily like some other leaders they dismissed through constitutional changes... I warned [the prime minister] that the time would come when certain things will come to the surface and everyone would suffer the consequences of their decisions."
Dinkic says the new law that has been rushed into place to satisfy political needs (in other words, his own expeditious removal) will trigger the collapse of the central bank: "Making a law which will destroy an institution in order to dismiss a man - that's disastrous." But it has also carelessly and arbitrarily altered various critical functions of the central bank - against the advice of the IMF - such as its reserve management role. The new appointment procedure of the governor is "the biggest scandal", as parliament now both nominates and elects him thus making him "purely a political figure".
Even Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief, has waded in, pleading Serbs to stop their bickering and to "reinforce their commitment to ensure the proper functioning of the federal institutions." But Dinkic believes that there is more to this than mere politics: "It's not surprising that behind all this is not only politics, but also large financial interests... The fact is that all this is being pushed by people who do not see me as a part of their team, a team that was corrupt from the outset and is becoming more corrupt.... Ask yourself why no one has yet been caught for financial crime! We have excellent policemen."
Newsmakers hears that Dinkic is going to pursue a political career, heading his G17 Plus party together with Labus, former vice-president of Yugoslavia. One suspects we haven't heard the last of Dinkic: "The only important thing for me is that what I do has some effect and is recorded by history, wherever I am."
SECOND TERM FOR MEXICO'S ORTIZ
Guillermo Ortiz, the governor of the Bank of Mexico, looks set to push on through to a second term when his current term expires at the end of this year. Ortiz has confirmed that Fox will nominate him to the senate, whose approval will be needed for Ortiz to secure his continuation. Ortiz described in a local radio interview how Fox had announced this to a congregation of dignitaries, including the likes of Horst Kohler and John Snow, on the occasion of the Mexican government's early retirement of its Brady bonds: "The president told those of us present at breakfast that he intended to nominate me to the senate."
Should the senate give him the
go ahead, "Of course I will accept," said Ortiz. He
has expressed unbounded delight at the prospect of another six
years as governor of the central bank, but simultaneously cautioned
that plenty of work remained to be done. In a stirring speech,
he celebrated the ability of the central bank to bring prosperity
to the nation: "If the central bank achieves a path of low
inflation, not only for one year but for many years... so that
it will no longer be a concern for anyone, neither for house wives,
nor for workers, then, I believe that the central bank will have
made an important contribution to the growth of this country."
But he warned that the central bank could not do this single-handedly:
structural reform and corruption are two important issues that
need to be addressed.
14 July 2003
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By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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A TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY BIS
73 years on and the world's oldest international financial organisation with it, the BIS is alive and well. As usual, a swarm of central bank governors great and small descended on Basel to participate in the BIS annual meetings. This diversity of attendance highlights the BIS's remarkable ability to adapt to the times, having metamorphosed into a very different creature to which it was originally conceived. Straying considerably from its origins as a bank established to handle Germany's reparation payments after the First World War, Malcolm Knight, the new general manager, insists, "The fundamental role of the BIS is to foster cooperation among central bankers and regulators all over the world."
Knight was keen to emphasise to Newsmakers his desire to continue the good work of his predecessor Andrew Crockett in engendering a truly global community of central bankers: "I really think of myself as someone who is very dedicated to the principle of international cooperation. I think I understand it, and I think this is a very effective place to do it, I think the BIS is in the right place geographically to perform that function in a really efficient way. But to me what is really important is the fostering of international cooperation."
To show that this is not just talk, the BIS has announced that it is continuing to widen its membership by inviting a further six emerging market central banks to join (Crockett set the ball rolling by adding thirteen to the then thirty-something strong membership of this essentially European institution): Algeria, Chile, Indonesia, Israel, New Zealand and the Philippines. The governor of one of those central banks commented to Newsmakers that the BIS was in a sense really only formalising what was already a reality.
Knight is keen to shelve those outmoded perceptions of the BIS as some musty and inward-looking European clique, and is committed to broadening the BIS's horizons: "Ten years ago the BIS was an institution that was very much focused on Europe. Now the BIS is an institution that is in Europe, and for that reason can really contribute to international cooperation between the central bankers in Western Europe and Eastern Europe, between central bankers in Europe and those in the Western hemisphere and other regions and that is something we really want to foster. It's a well-established cooperation but it is something that needs to continue."
One monumental task looming over Knight is the implementation of the new version of the Basel capital accord. But although he believes it to be a "major step forward", it is by no means the end of the road: "I do think that the system and these proposals will evolve over time as supervisory employees gain more experience." But for the moment, the immediate task ahead is what is of primary concern: "I don't know whether we should talk about Basel III, Basel IV or Basel V - and I'm sure the people that did all that hard work on Basel II and want to get it implemented probably have no idea about Basel III, IV or V."
Another critical move that Knight has taken to show that he really means business is in discarding some of the more arcane idiosyncrasies still practiced at the BIS, such as the use of the gold franc in its accounting statements: "We preach transparency all over the world and we have to live by what we preach. That's why the much more transparent financial statements that we'll have now are going to stand us in good stead." By improving the BIS's transparency it is Knight's hope that this in itself will help to keep the institution in touch with its direction by promoting understanding of this traditionally secretive institution: "A little bit of constructive criticism would be useful. That's what transparency is about." The BIS has moved into the twenty-first century in all the best traditions of Darwinianism.
(See the complete interview with Malcolm Knight in the forthcoming August issue of Central Banking journal - http://www.centralbanking.co.uk/publications/journals/cbj.htm)
KING ASSUMES HIS THRONE
The long-awaited moment has arrived: Mervyn King has moved into Eddie George's offices on Threadneedle Street, now that he has been baptised as governor of the Bank of England. In his debut media appearance as governor, he accepted an interview with The Times in which he betrayed some trepidation at having to replace this "remarkable figure". He modestly protested that Eddie's shoes are one or two sizes larger than his own - but, providentially, help is at hand. With a little help from his two redoubtable deputies, things should be okay: "I don't think I can fill [Eddie's shoes] myself. But I think the three of us, Rachel Lomax, Andrew Large, and myself can try between us to fill the shoes of Eddie."
Anyone would feel the same. After all, as King shrewdly observes, "I am not Eddie George. I don't expect to have the same image that he has." But he seems to have a capital plan to sidestep his uncomfortable predicament. Just dispense with this troublesome notion of having a personal image at all: "I've always said that the success of the MPC will come when people find our decisions boring and that they come to anticipate them... If we can go one step further to make it genuinely boring then I hope I won't have a public image in that sense. If there is an image, it will be as a group of people who go around the country and have professional competence - who only do one thing and do it pretty well."
DOGFIGHTING OVER THE ECB
Further to Newsmakers, plea for politicians put a stop to their unwanted trespassing on territory best left occupied by central bankers, in particular with regard to appointments to the executive board of the ECB, Newsmakers has been notified that it is far from being alone in its concerns. The European League for Economic Cooperation (ELEC) has issued a resolution displaying just the same unease that appointments to the ECB executive board could degenerate into a more or less perpetual political dogfight; and a solution has been suggested.
In a statement issued in early June, it observed that from now on there are likely to be decisions at a more or less annual pace, and that they must be based on qualification, not on nationality. Furthermore, it states that "it is imperative, for the smooth functioning of the ECB and for the credibility of the euro, that the European political authorities be able to discharge in an efficient manner" its responsibilities of appointing ECB board members (and here it notes that this was not the case with the appointments of Wim Duisenberg and Sirkka Hämälaïnen).
To resolve these problems, it advocates that we dispose of the cumbersome requirement for unanimous approval of candidates. This after all makes it far too easy for one self-interested and truculent party to upset the proceedings which would otherwise pass unhindered. Instead, the ELEC suggests (or rather, "urges") that the decisions over these appointments be made by the European Council "by qualified majority of the members having adopted the euro, after receiving the assent of the European Parliament".
If this is what it takes to set things to rights, then it has Newsmakers, whole-hearted consent. One senior insider at the ECB expressed approval to Newsmakers of such an idea and could envisage such a scheme being implemented, accepting that the current set up did create difficulties. However it was observed that it might be easier to accept such a scheme for board members than the president as well. Whatever the case, something does need to be done, the sooner the better, for the ECB's - and Europe's - sake.
(See here to read the ELEC resolution in full: http://www.elec.easynet.be/B5resMon_E.htm)
STAND-OFF IN BULGARIA
Another good reason for sorting out this mess would be to set an example to other countries as to how these things should be done, which it certainly isn't doing at the moment. If troubled central banks can't refer to such a pivotal central bank as the ECB as to how to conduct their affairs, who can they look to? Bulgaria is going through a particularly painful process over the appointment of a new central bank governor, which has been dragging on for weeks now. When Newsmakers asked Professor Steve Hanke, who set up Bulgaria's currency board system in 1997 and is intimately acquainted with the situation, he disapprovingly described "the flap over the appointment of a new governor" as "a very good example of how even the most simple things in Bulgaria can become politicised."
The prime minister has insisted that the protracted discussions over who is to be governor are will have no negative effects for the central bank, and has most recently excused himself for the fiasco (it was his party that requested a delay of the elections in the first place on June 10) by arguing that discussions were needed over the issue. Different parties have aligned themselves with the two different candidates (there had been the possibility of a third candidate being introduced into play, but mercifully this idea has been dropped) on the basis of what the policies of the two candidates are, particularly over their strategies for the euro, when Bulgaria joins the EU in 2007.
The candidates are the government's man Ivan Iskrov, chairman of the parliamentary commission on budget, and current governor Svetoslav Gavriiski, who has the support of the right-wing opposition. Iskrov was said to have "gained a lead" over Gavriiski when the party which had been going to propose a third candidate decided to back Iskrov instead. The opposition party has withdrawn from the consultation process in a huff saying that there was no point in taking them further as it is apparently not proper to mix talks over the election of a new governor with discussions over Bulgaria's financial stability - at the same time assuring that they would continue to support Gavriiski, although this "can hardly make a difference any more" since the ruling party is backing Iskrov. Just to confuse matters even further, a full month after Gavriiski's term ended, the socialist party has now also withdrawn from negotiations over the next governor over some minor quibble. Please let's get it over and done with!
A LEAN MACHINE
While in some cases the larger central banks ought to be setting a good example for others to follow, it can work the other way around too. Certain Eurosystem central banks might be dripping with envy out at what the central bank in Ghana has managed to achieve, unlike them. Some of the more bloated ones - which to their credit, such as the Banque de France, are mostly attempting to remedy their obesity - would love to be able casually to shave off 1,000 workers as has just happened in Ghana.
The central bank there has just got itself a brand new, million-dollar note sorting machine which will do the work of 500 people, and ten times as quickly. With 2,600 workers, the bank is one of the most highly staffed on the continent relative to its population, and wants to become "a lean, more focused and responsive central bank" - although it promises to go about this in "a humane manner" by offering "generous and attractive early retirement package for staff that may wish to retire voluntarily". To be sure, there has been some discontent among workers and unions at this rather abrupt measure, but probably not to the same extent as in France where workers have delighted in taking to the streets on what is becoming an all-too-regular basis, even though the proposals for change are substantially less radical. In some respects European central bankers don't have it so easy.
FUNNY MONEY
After Hungary's recent spot of bother with its exchange rate - and subsequent accusations that the central bank was at fault - Newsmakers is delighted to report that the central bank's communication strategy is most certainly focused - er, on the money. Newsmakers is reliably informed that if you call up Hungary's central bank, and are lucky enough to be put on hold (a stroke of fortune which, alas, Newsmakers has cruelly been denied), you may hear that celebrated song by Swedish supergroup Abba, "Money, Money, Money". A natural favourite for central bankers, of course. Only the irony can hardly go unnoticed. For those readers unfortunate enough not to be familiar with this classic, Newsmakers takes pleasure in reproducing the chorus here:
"Money, money, money,
must be funny,
in a rich man's world.
Money, money, money,
always sunny,
it's a rich man's world.
Aha-ahaaa - all the things I could do,
if I had a little money,
it's a rich man's world."
Newsmakers asks: is this a veiled cry for help? A plaintive plea for a return to the old days of rather looser money? Perhaps the prospect of ERM II is just too much? To hazard a guess, Hungary is sadly not a part of this "rich man's world", now that it is restrained by a monetary straitjacket forcing it to keep its currency within a mere 2.25% of a central rate, as well as facing heavy-duty fiscal reform to pull its deficit in line with the stringent Maastricht criteria. Well, on the bright side, at least their answering machine is not playing "Waterloo..."
(For the uninitiated: http://www.codehot.co.uk/lyrics/abcd/abba/waterloo.htm)
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
Benedict
Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications Ltd
6 Langley Street, London WC2H 9JA, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 3625
Fax: +44 (0)20 7836 3608
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk
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