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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
27 January 2003
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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/
By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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PUNDITS PUSHING IT?
William McDonough, president of the New York Fed and one of the most well-known and influential figures in international finance, has announced that he will retire in July. Those who consider themselves "in the know" are kicking themselves for not predicting this, as it came as a complete surprise - but it had to happen sooner or later. And why not sooner? As has been flogged to death by the financial media (Newsmakers is not an exception, nor does it particularly plan to stop being one now), we are on the point of witnessing a raft of changes in most of the G10 central banks as a new generation of leaders is poised to take over. The ECB (and possibly the Banque de France if Trichet is let off the hook), the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Riksbank are all changing their governors this year; and next year the term of Greenspan himself expires, as well as that of the Belgian and Dutch central bank governors.
So it is a happy coincidence that McDonough has chosen to give up his central banking career now, leaving a good year's breathing space before Greenspan goes. His reaction to McDonough's retirement says it all: "I will greatly miss Bill McDonough's counsel and advice. After a decade of exemplary service to the Federal Reserve System, his retirement will leave a pronounced void." Sounds like he really means it - bearing in mind that in all his time on the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed's rate-setting committee), McDonough never cast a dissenting vote. Now 69, he has experienced some pretty tense moments in his time, and has probably had just about enough.
Possibly the most memorable was his instrumental role in seeing the Long Term Capital Management affair through, when the Fed orchestrated the rescue of the highly leveraged hedge fund whose collapse was in danger of wreaking havoc in the financial system (yes, we know some complained that the Fed's actions fuelled moral hazard, but most central bankers view it as a job well done). He will also go down in history for his achievements as chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Under Bill's capable leadership the committee has completely revamped the Basel Capital Accord, no mean feat given its legendary complexity (no one understands it) and the multitude of different interests involved. He declines to comment on what great deeds he will set his mind to now, although he has said he will keep himself occupied on some of the not-for-profit boards on which he serves, including the Council of Foreign Relations (where he is vice-chairman), the Carnegie Corporation and the New York Philharmonic Orchestra.
In the meantime, in order to make up for failing to foresee his departure, the pundits are telling us who is to succeed McDonough. Impressively, they already seem to know that it will be the US Treasury's Peter Fisher, who previously ran open market and foreign exchange operations at the New York Fed, although other names are being bandied about, including, intriguingly, Fed vice-chairman Roger Ferguson (is he happy where he is?) and Stanley Fischer, Anne Krueger's predecessor at the IMF, who only very recently became president of Citigroup where one imagines he is earning a bob or two... These "wannabe insiders" (as one real insider put it) can suggest names until they are blue in the face, but Newsmakers suggests that the field is still very much open.
KNIGHT MOVES
To illustrate how impossible it often is to be so sure whom these high-level positions go to, who on earth was saying that Malcolm Knight, currently senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, was going to take Andrew Crockett's job at the BIS? No one. Newsmakers can now smugly congratulate itself on abstaining from backing a favourite in the last issue. But why did it have to be a Canadian, grazed Europeans are wondering? If a non-European was going to head what was for many decades considered Europe's counterweight to the US-dominated IMF (Knight is the first non-European to head the BIS in its 73 years of existence), could it not have been someone from South America at least, such as the favoured Fraga? John Crow, a former governor of the Bank of Canada, goes some way to explaining this in his recent book Making Money when he says that of all the international organisations and committees, at the BIS Canada felt "much more on our own ground".
Knight will leave for the BIS at the end of March, having joined the central bank in 1999 after a 24-year slog at the IMF, where he worked his way up to deputy director in 1993. Bank of Canada governor David Dodge expressed appropriate regret for losing his colleague to the BIS: "The Bank of Canada is very sorry to lose MrKnight, whose excellent leadership as senior deputy governor has been important to the bank's success over the past several years. However, the bank is very proud that Malcolm's abilities and expertise have been recognized by the international community."
FREEDOM FOR FREEDMAN
Dodge has equally good reason to be worried about the imminent departure of another senior figure, Charles Freedman. He has announced that he will be off in September, after more than 30 years of service to the bank, the last 15 as a deputy governor.
Perhaps Freedman's greatest contribution was his pivotal role in the introduction of inflation targeting in 1991, particularly as he had so little to go on, Canada being only the second country to introduce this after New Zealand. He was the man behind the research, and, he told Newsmakers, is "pleased to note that our framework was remarkably similar to the approach suggested by the research done several years later by Lars Svensson, which emphasised the importance of 'flexible targeting' and the need to bring inflation back to the target gradually, if it deviates from the target as a result of a shock." He went on to stress how valuable the ability to conduct research was to him, which he counts as "among the highlights of my career". As a former academic, he said, "I cannot over-emphasise the importance to me of being able to continue to do research throughout my career at the bank."
Freedman tells Newsmakers that he plans to return to academia and perhaps take up some invitations he has received from a number of central banks and international organizations to do research. "And possibly, if my energy level suffices, I will write a book on the theory and practice of central banking" - one to look out for. In fact, there will also be a festschrift in his honour involving such luminaries as Charles Goodhart, Lars Svensson, Don Kohn and Larry Meyer. In his spare time, "there are also a lot of novels waiting that I have not had time to read", and, "perhaps most important", he intends to spend more time with his three grandchildren.
STANDOFF FOR HAMALAINEN SEAT
Speculation is mounting as to who will succeed Sirkka Hamalainen when her term on the ECB's executive board expires at the end of May. As the countries concerned are acutely aware, Austria, Belgium, France, Ireland, Luxembourg and Portugal are the countries in the euro area not to have a representative on the ECB board. So far, rumblings in the media would tend to suggest that the keenest of those countries to snap up the soon-to-be-available seat are Austria, Belgium and Ireland (France has its hopes set higher, on the governor's spot). The Austrians have put their money on Gertrud Tumpel-Gugerell, the deputy governor of their central bank who, people say, has been deliberately "groomed" for the candidacy. The Irish are also believed to be interested as last year finance minister Charlie McCreevy aired his feeling that all euro zone countries should have a go on the board at some point.
But in Belgium there seems to be something of a standoff between Paul De Grauwe, the well-known economist and ECB-watcher, and Marcia De Wachter, the central bank's charming deputy governor. The latter has it in her favour that the ECB is rumoured to want to replace Hamalainen with another woman, as she is still the only woman on the board. But De Grauwe seems to have volunteered himself, obdurately persisting in his aim to get on the board after he was given the brush off in his bid for Christian Noyer's place, which went to Greek Lucas Papademos. De Grauwe, who has become known for his criticisms of the ECB for failing to promote growth (he is no fan of the notorious Stability and Growth pact which the ECB continues to support) and not cutting interests rates quickly enough, insists that he is Belgium's candidate: "As far as I am concerned, I am." He has this on the most reliable of sources, that is, "people who should know".
But so far at least, the government has not shown boundless enthusiasm to sanction his claims. Didier Reynders, Belgium's finance minister (who has in the past been rumoured to be interested in assuming no less than the presidency itself should the Trichet plan fall through; he also refused to endorse an otherwise unanimous vote for Papademos's appointment when De Grauwe was not chosen) will make "no official comment... for the time being." May the best man - or woman - win.
OF ANTHRAX, ABSCONDERS AND AUTOGRAPHS
Besides McDonough's departure, there has been further excitement at the Fed, albeit of a less momentous nature. First of all, the Fed was involved in an anthrax scare. Washington was on red alert when it was discovered that some malcontent was trying to infiltrate Greenspan's in-tray with an anthrax-contaminated letter - but, happily, it turned out to be a false alarm. A rather more real threat came in the shape of a particularly canny cat burglar, who ingeniously managed to worm his way into the holy of central banking holies, Greenspan's own home - and in broad daylight. This plucky larcenist managed to make off with some of Mrs Greenspsan's (a.k.a. Andrea Mitchell, NBC's foreign affairs correspondent) most prized jewellery, much to her sorrow. The trespasser pilfered some items of "sentimental value, including gifts from my husband." But, as Mitchell told The Washington Post, "The bizarre thing is that people were in the house all morning. Someone was clearly casing the place."
Still, that can't be half as unsettling as the fact that Newsmakers has in its possession a copy of the autograph of none other than Fed honcho himself, blithely given away at a chance meeting in a lift together with his wife with one of Central Banking journal's fearless correspondents in the US, who must remain nameless. As related by the said correspondent, who had a copy of Central Banking journal with him at the time, the dialogue went as follows. Correspondent: "Mr Chairman, can I get you to sign this Central Banking journal?" Mitchell: "That's very appropriate." [Opens to page 69.] "Were you in Ulaanbaatar? I was in Mongolia a long time ago." Correspondent: "Yes, I was there two months ago." Greenspan: "I'm not sure I should be signing this page." Correspondent: "I wrote the article - see, that's my photograph." Mitchell: "You can sign it, Al, he wrote it - see?" [Signs page 69.] Correspondent: "Thank you Mr Chairman, thank you Ms Mitchell." He then scarpered before the venerable chairman thought better of it. All in a day's work for the mighty, no doubt.
LOOKING FORWARD TO RETIRING
His opposite number across the Atlantic has been having a pretty trying time recently too. Again, a wife was involved. But Gretta Duisenberg, as we all know by now, does not quite have the same gift for diplomacy as Andrea Mitchell. Following Wim's pledge of support for his wife, whose own controversial support of the Palestinians has provoked rampant disapproval from some camps, her most recent gaffe came when she blurted out, "The Holocaust excepted, the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories is worse than the Nazi occupation of the Netherlands." This hasn't gone down too well, and Gretta has in fact since apologised for this impolitic remark. But one outraged leading Dutch parliamentarian has demanded that the ECB president resign "immediately" in light of his support for his wife. While Newsmakers suspects this probably won't happen, protesters are now starting to take more direct action, and most recently 80 German Jews staged a protest outside the ECB HQ in Frankfurt. Still, not long to go now. Let's just hope Wim can stick it out until July - provided they have decided who is to replace him by then, that is.
CENTRAL BANKER PRACTISES VOODOO ECONOMICS?
The central bank in Venezuela is desperately upset with the Financial Times for publishing a story in December that it claimed was completely untrue. According to the FT article, the bank had been forced to recirculate old 50,000 bolivar notes that had been due for incineration because of a serious shortage of notes. But the FT then went on to allege that, firstly, the governor of the central bank, Diego Castellanos, dabbled in voodoo magic (or rather in a local variant of voodoo known as Santerismo), and that, secondly, this had prompted him to order in 2000 that these notes be destroyed because he feared they were cursed. Newsmakers' investigations on the matter yielded no satisfactory conclusion. The FT correspondent in question insists that as far as he is concerned this is true, claiming to have reliable sources. The central bank for its part denies it outright, and professes to being rather disappointed with the FT. Somewhere along the line one wonders whether the facts didn't get twisted...
SITTING TIGHT
To follow up on the almost implausible events that have been taking place in Turkmenistan, the lunatic despot who runs the place intends to lock up former central bank governor Hudayberdi Orazov for life after his alleged - and vigorously denied - role in a recent assassination attempt on his person. The trial, which took place in his absence in December, was described by Amnesty International as "grossly unfair". Luckily for Orazov, he is in hiding in Russia, but President Niyazov has vowed to root him out along with two other guilty parties also sitting tight in Russia: "God willing, we will detain them." He has been on the telephone with the Russian president to persuade him to lend a hand in his search, and it seems he succeeded. Amnesty International says Orazov is "at great risk of torture" if he is deported to Turkmenistan.
BON VOYAGE, IAN!
Newsmakers was delighted to attend Ian Plenderleith's leaving party, prior to his departure from the City to take up the new challenge as a deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank. It was a very special City occasion, with the top brass of the Bank out in force, as well as friends both personal and business from far and wide. The financial markets were well represented, not forgetting the gold market. In addition to the governor himself, governor designate Mervyn King popped in to wish Ian every good luck in his new venture. Plenderleith himself is plainly overjoyed to have this great adventure and opportunity open up for him after his retirement from the Bank. And to be able to combine his passions for central banking and cricket under the sunny skies of Pretoria, well! Who would not rather be in South Africa than London in February?
A CURE-ALL OR A BAD CALL?
Sovereign default has provided policymakers with a few headaches over the last few months, but is Anne Krueger's back-pedalling project, with the catchy acronym "SDRM", a panacea or placebo? Mike Mussa, one-time IMF supremo, was far from optimistic in his diagnosis. On whether SDRM should be used to solve emerging market crises, he opined that it was like "giving an aspirin to someone who has cancer". With friends like these...
13 January 2003
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By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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PASSPORT PALAVER
Wim Duisenberg has once again been unwittingly embroiled in controversy as a consequence of his wife Gretta's fervent support for the Palestinian cause. Following the rumpus last May when Gretta got in trouble for festooning the façade of the couple's home with the Palestinian pennant, and for making alleged anti-Semitic remarks in October, her most recent exploits have now for the first time actually prompted the ECB president publicly to put a good word in for his spouse, gallantly declaring that "I am 100 percent behind her.
When Gretta, who chairs a pro-Palestinian group called "Stop the Occupation", met and lunched with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat this week, she raised a few hackles by exhorting Israel to withdraw from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, as well as saying that she empathised with suicide bombers although she also urged this to stop. Her detractors were quick to pounce on the fact that she was travelling on a diplomatic passport that was only issued to her because of her husband's status, and they complained that she was cynically misusing her husband's distinguished name to partisan ends. She, however, asserts that she is a free agent with a right to express her own opinions.
But exasperated Wim felt compelled to write a letter to the Dutch foreign minister, who had complained about the use of her passport, setting the matter to rights. He couldn't contain himself any longer: "Up to now I have, as befits my position, kept out of the activities of my wife." However he felt obliged to point out that the accusations were a bit unfair, if only because his wife wasn't actually supposed to use her regular passport which she had had to turn in years ago. He explained: "My wife got her diplomatic passport in 1987, the year we were married, in relation to my position as the president of the Dutch Central Bank, and not, as suggested, as part of my job as the ECB president." Her regular passport, which is locked up in a safe in at the Dutch consulate in Frankfurt, is reserved for use when going to countries where showing a diplomatic passport could create genuine problems.
Gretta refuses even to discuss the issue, arguing that her enemies are just trying to make her mission difficult in any way possible. Israel says that her views are biased and that she is not welcome, while a Dutch foreign ministry spokesman says, "she is not a credible person... because she is completely one-sided." She has also received several death threats, and following the Palestinian flag-flying incident, one Dutch journalist thought it would be a good gag to garland the Duisenbergs, home with an Israeli flag. Although he failed in his attempt, Wim Duisenberg said his actions were "sickening" and that he felt very threatened. But Gretta's efforts are not completely in vain, and there are those who appreciate what she does: in December she was awarded a human rights award from the Belgian "League for Human Rights", in recognition of her endeavours to spotlight Palestinian human rights.
TRICHET TRIAL BEGINS
The future of Jean-Claude Trichet's central banking career, and perhaps even the good name of the ECB, is hanging on a knife-edge. Whether or not France's high court deems Trichet guilty of complicity in corrupt practices as charged over the next six weeks may have a significant bearing on the credibility of one of Europe's key institutions. Will the ECB end up with egg on its face when it suddenly transpires that its long-chosen candidate to succeed Wim Duisenberg is not eligible for the job? If not Trichet then who? There are a number of possible candidates, but whether or not they will line up in an orderly fashion is quite another thing.
But none of this is anything new. Trichet is on trial for something he is accused of doing a decade ago. As is by now pretty well known, Trichet is accused of getting his hands dirty in the cover-up of colossal losses during the state bailout of Credit Lyonnais. His prosecutors say he was party to disseminating false information to the markets and publishing vague accounting records. Trichet's lawyers say he neither had the information nor the authority to do anything about this.
But why, even the most reasonable people are scratching their heads, has it been left only until now, just months before France has a unique chance to get their star player into the ECB presidency, to try this case? Surely, the matter could have been settled years ago. He was only placed under investigation in 2000, seven years after the incident took place. To make matters worse, when the French public prosecutor recommended last May that the case be dismissed, the investigating magistrate bafflingly then overruled the recommendation in July. As if this wasn't enough, with the clock ticking, the trial has just been postponed by four days owing to certain complications caused by parallel investigations into the matter. What is more, there is a danger that the trial will be postponed further to allow more time for prosecutors to examine fresh evidence arising from an accountancy report released in October.
This puts the euro area governments in a pickle. All this rumour-mongering and press speculation on possible new ECB presidents - and whether or not the next one has to be French - highlights the political nature of the appointment process. Of course, that kind of top appointment has to be decided at the level of finance ministers/heads of government. But the horse-trading that will go on if Trichet cannot succeed, with the French asserting that it had been agreed that the next one would be French and others disagreeing, will only undermine the ECB's credibility. It reminds us that many politicians, like President Chirac (whom some French observers blame for the whole debacle), have never really accepted central banking independence.
Wim Duisenberg had promised to step down from the ECB in July on his 68th birthday. Although he has now reluctantly agreed to stay on until a successor has been confirmed, he says that he "just wants to go fishing".
CHANGE IN CHINA
The New Year brings great changes for China's titanic central bank, now that Dai Xianglong has been succeeded as governor by the country's top securities-market regulator, Zhou Xiaochuan. This change has long been rumoured to take place, and comes as the old wood in China's administration is being cut out with the arrival of a new generation of leaders. Mr Zhou is a hard-nosed technocrat, and made a name for himself during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. He has been described as an intellectual with an almost scholarly style of leadership, and mirroring the changes under way on a national level, he is expected to promote many younger officials to senior positions.
At just 54, he hardly lacks experience at running large organisations, such as the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. While at the regulatory commission Mr Zhou is credited with taking a hard line on corruption, leading a concerted attack on insider trading and slapdash accounting practices. Also, since 1991 Mr Zhou has been president of the Bank of Construction and vice-president of the Bank of China, two of China's four top commercial banks. But running the People's Bank of China, which employs approaching one third of the world's central bankers with over 150,000 employees on its payroll, will be no mean feat, although he will still answer to China's top economic official, Premier Zhu Rongji, as the central bank is not independent. For his part, Mr Dai, after eight years of running the central bank, is by no means going to rest on his laurels. On the contrary, he is to become mayor of Tianjin, the fourth largest city in China, and it has been suggested that this could be even more trying than running the central bank. May he continue to prosper.
BIS BOSS
There is another change at the top on the cards. On Monday it will be announced who is to succeed Andrew Crockett as general manager of the Bank for International Settlements. The selection committee has been scouring the globe for months for a suitable candidate, and the competition is fierce. The selectors themselves would make worthy candidates, but we can presumably rule them out. It is headed by Nout Wellink, BIS chairman and governor of the Dutch central bank, and he is being assisted in his search by Yutaka Yamaguchi, Antonio Fazio, Roger Ferguson and Jean-Pierre Roth. Who they come up with is anybody's guess, and Newsmakers will not be so rash as to speculate at this late stage who is likely to be chosen. In any case, by the time you read this you probably already know. For those who don't, look out for Arminio Fraga's name in the headlines (who has just left the central bank of Brazil) - although many think that the BIS may not be ready to appoint someone from outside the G-10 just yet (of the eight heads of the BIS to date there have been five Frenchmen, one German, one Belgian, and one Briton), despite the fact that Crockett is praised for converting the organisation from a European-dominated body into a global institution. Consequently some think that someone like Urban Backstrom would be a better bet. We'll just have to wait and see. [Randy's note: Selected for the post was Malcolm Knight, senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada.]
PANTOMIME OVER
For better or for worse, a new governor has also been installed in the central bank in Ukraine. An end has at last been put to the farcical pantomime that dogged the central bank at the close of 2002, in which the government repeatedly attempted to get its candidate elected as governor to the central bank, but was consistently foiled by the obstreperous and spirited opposition members of parliament - alas, it seems their resistance was futile. Ukraine's government eventually succeeded in making Volodymyr Stelmakh walk the plank, and has now horned into the governorship its favoured candidate, Serhiy Tyhypko. As a source told Newsmakers before Stelmakh was booted out, "I give 70 to 30 that the governor will be replaced. If it does not happen it means that something is really changing in our country", attributing the potential replacement to the "short-sighted politics in our country".
As leader of the pro-presidential Working Ukraine faction, Tyhypko's appointment has been widely criticised as politicising the country's banking system. The leader of the reformist Our Ukraine bloc and a former governor of the central bank himself, Viktor Yushchenko, has argued fiercely against the replacement: "Stelmakh has not been dismissed in a legitimate manner, and the new head of the National Bank was not appointed legitimately." He continued: "We will never support replacing the head of the central bank, no matter what his name is. He was legitimately elected for five years, the same as the president or the head of the Supreme Court, for instance. These are institutions of stability. What if somebody decides to include the post of president, for instance, into political reshuffles? Everybody will agree that this is not possible. Why has it then become possible to dismiss the head of the National Bank? He is immune as an institution and as a person. What political reasons do there have to be to initiate this, collect votes in parliament and ignore the law on the National Bank and present somebody with another post, that of the National Bank chief this time?"
But Tyhypko has defended his appointment, reassuring that "there will be no politicising of the national bank" after his appointment. He also promised to quit the Working Ukraine party and to sell all his shares. And now that he has been appointed, Tyhypko has no intention of bowing out: "Even friends, let alone political opponents, have already asked me if I came to the National Bank for a year or a year and a half. If I am not mistaken I was elected for five years. I would like to work for at least five years and then we will see." Funny it never occurred to his electors that his predecessor had also been elected for five years. Still, Tyhypko has done his best to comfort people that he is up to the job, declaring that "the task of keeping the hryvnya stable would be carried out". He has also said that he has no intention of drastically reshuffling the bank's personnel: "I respect the NBU's team of professionals. Their knowledge and experience correspond to their posts. There will be a reshuffle but not a drastic one." However he has said there will be changes made to the central bank's supervisory board.
COMING IN FROM THE COLD
Central banks, in their eternal quest to enhance their transparency, are showing an ever-stronger online presence. Over the last year, Newsmakers can reveal that 13 official central bank websites have been inaugurated. They are in the following countries:
| Azerbaijan | http://www.nba.az/ |
| Bahamas | http://www.centralbankbahamas.com/ |
| Belarus | http://www.nbrb.by/ |
| Bhutan | http://www.rma.org.bt/ |
| Central African States | http://www.beac.int/ |
| Congo | http://www.bcc.cd/go.html |
| Iran | http://www.cbi.gov.ir/ |
| Libya | http://www.cbl-ly.com/ |
| Morocco | http://www.bkam.ma/ |
| Nigeria | http://www.cenbank.org/ |
| Papua New Guinea | http://www.bankpng.gov.pg/ |
| Rwanda | http://www.bnr.rw/ |
| Suriname | http://www.cbvs.sr/ |
That brings the total to 150 central bank websites (if we are to include those of the European national central banks) leaving just 24 central banks that have yet to join the fold, the majority of which are in Africa and Asia. About the same amount of websites were introduced during 2001, so, are we to assume that by the end of 2004 every single central bank will have a website, if they continue being set up at this rate? Let's hope so, for their sake. For a complete list of central bank website links click here.
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
Benedict
Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications Ltd
6 Langley Street, London WC2H 9JA, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 3625
Fax: +44 (0)20 7836 3608
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk
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