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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
24 February 2003
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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/
By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
******************************************
Branching Out
It finally looks as though something might be done about the bloated Banque de France. As the Eurosystem is pelted with criticism of its startling surfeit of central bankers (look no further than here: http://www.centralbanking.co.uk/publications/directories/pdf/press2003.pdf), France is surely the chief culprit, riddled with 211 regional branches (compare that with the Bank of England's 14). The BdF of course knows this, but runs up against dogged resistance from the unions when it has actually tried to do anything about it. But now Jean-Claude Trichet, France's governor, has in his possession a new report recommending the eventual closure of the bulk of the bank's largely superfluous branches. And it's a report he commissioned!
Trichet should be congratulated for consistently attempting to point out the impossibilities of justifying the existence of the ubiquitous branches, which are a hangover from the nineteenth century when such ubiquity was deemed necessary to provide local discounting facilities, distribute notes and coins, arbitrate in local disputes and ensure the solvency of banks. He recently said that it was "imperative to pursue efforts made in recent years to modernise the BdF, rationalise its structures and adapt its activities and operating conditions to new developments."
Over the past decade he has managed to cut about 2,500 employees through a policy of non-replacement. But his talk about adapting the structures of the bank to "allow it to perform its duties more satisfactorily and more efficiently" implies that the current structure is still far from efficient. The report looks at four ways of improving the BdF's structure and in the end plumps for maintaining a network of 62 permanent sites (37 fully-fledged branches, 8 branches without cash activities and 17 currency circulation centres), supplemented by 51 customer service and information offices.
Indeed, with the introduction of the euro, and the transfer of many responsibilities to the ECB, most people would agree that a shake-up is needed. But already the indignant French unions, together with the national association of mayors, are digging in their heels. They say that 3,200 jobs will be lost, and they encouraged some 62% of the 8,000 branch employees to go on strike last week. In an attempt to soothe worker worries, the BdF has insisted that it has "no intention of making any employees redundant" and in any case that "no decision has as yet been taken". Leaving no doubt that it is in no rush to do anything rash, the central bank assured that there will first be an "extended period of consultation with trade unions and the relevant elected representatives" before even a "preliminary" decision is taken.
Let's hope these are just evasive tactics to get the unions off its back: the sooner something is done about the Eurosystem's legions of central bankers, the better. Click here to find out more about the report on the BdF's website: http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/actu/main.htm?menu2=menu_m1.htm&page=discours/24.htm
Trichet Left Clutching At Straws
A further blow was delivered to Jean-Claude Trichet's claims to the ECB throne when it was announced that the verdict on his trial will not be made known for another four months, on 18 June. Newsmakers' sympathies go out to the poor man. The state prosecutor would even have Trichet serve a ten-month suspended jail sentence for his alleged misdemeanours. French courts attribute this uncommon delay in reaching a verdict (it had been assumed they would ask for two months or so) to the so-called "complexity" of the evidence they are grappling with: it seems more like water-torture to us. And this verdict is merely three weeks before Wim Duisenberg has promised to bid adieu to his ECB comrades, on 9 July.
Even if Trichet's name is cleared, if the wayward and troublesome French lawyers acting against Trichet are to remain true to form, they will appeal the verdict. This could spell the end to Trichet's dreams, and even if they don't appeal, Christa Randzio-Plath, head of the European Parliament's economic and monetary committee, thinks it won't be until September that the parliament will be able to confirm a successor to Duisenberg. She told the FT, "It's really necessary for Duisenberg to prolong his tenure... The approval of the committee takes some time." A number of hurdles must be cleared before a president of the ECB can be confirmed: first unanimous approval from EU heads of government, then a grilling by Randzio-Plath's committee, before the European Parliament casts a deciding vote.
Whatever happens to Jean-Claude, the French are going to insist on one of their own assuming the ECB presidency. Already French lawyers are desperately scrutinising the legal viability of Christian Noyer (previously vice-president of the ECB) taking the job instead, the problem being that top ECB executives are not supposed to be reappointed. Nervous times lie ahead for the ECB, and veteran Wim Duisenberg may find himself mooching around in Frankfurt for a little longer than he bargained for.
Fazio Stands Strong
While the Banque de France is conscientiously considering cutting back its seam-splitting structure, the Banca d'Italia is apparently considering no such thing according to a recent article from Dow Jones Newswires - even though Italy is just as top heavy with central bankers as France. In fact, any kind of reform appears to be out of the question, as the governor Antonio Fazio has jealously been guarding the bank's regulatory responsibilities over the banking sector.
Apparently, parts of a law in preparation which were aimed at clipping Fazio's wings mysteriously vanished from the draft at the end of last year when Berlusconi himself intervened. Fazio also protested publicly. Since then talk about reforming the bank has gone all quiet. Conspiracy theorists cite conflicts of interest: the fact that Italy's top four banks own over 50% of the central bank's shares have caused a few squeals at lack of transparency in the decision-making process each time the central bank gives the thumbs up (or down) for mergers or acquisitions. The Banca d'Italia is proving far more resilient to reform than the once-mighty Bundesbank or the Banque de France, but for how much longer will strong-armed Fazio be able to hold out?
No Nepotism In Peru
While the problems in the BdF are all too real, the president of Peru's central bank, Richard Webb, has come under fire for criticisms that seem to have rather less substance. The harried president admitted to Newsmakers, "it's been a hectic time, courtesy in part of newspaper and congressional attacks on the bank."
Webb has had the tedious task of explaining why, just because it may be true that about 20% (or 200) of the bank's 1,027 employees are indeed related, the bank has not been violating nepotism laws. Firstly, exactly half of that group consists of marriages that occurred after joining the bank, which, he quipped, "says something about the stability of the bank's employment relationships". The rest of them, most of whom are manual workers or lower level clerks, were hired more than 10 years ago and aren't affected by the laws in question. In any case, Webb observes that most of these were hired when "the family link was considered a basis for trust when hiring a manual or lower-level worker, in an age when neither experience (most were hired very young) nor educational achievement played major roles."
In fact, Webb says it was him that introduced meritocratic hiring in the bank in the first place, back in the 60s when he was head of the research department and would run graduate schemes. At the time this was seen to be pretty "revolutionary", and Webb recalls the "aristocratic" head of personnel sneering at the "'lower-class' type of person" that was resultantly beginning to join the bank. Apparently this particular character has since been locked up for running a cheque carrousel with the bank's chief cashier...
Webb explained that this little matter has reared its head repeatedly over the last decade, owing to inquiries from congress that are "invariably motivated by disgruntled former employees". And doubtless there will be more. As Webb said, for the moment, "everything suggests that the smear campaign regarding nepotism is running out of steam, but, like Old Faithful, it will probably crop up again in a few years time."
Klein Not To Be Pushed About
In Israel relations between the central bank and government could hardly be worse. David Klein, the central bank governor, has fallen into such complete disfavour with the government that the prime minister, Ariel Sharon, is bent on replacing him with someone just a little more pliable.
Klein has had the gall to speak his mind about the government's economic policy, most recently observing that substantial cuts in the budget would be needed to reach the government's budget deficit target (if it is not reached, Israel risks being downgraded by credit rating agencies). For such impertinence (which looks more like normal central banker's talk to us), Sharon has drafted in Attorney-General Elyakim Rubinstein to look into the legal feasibilities of ditching Klein. And if that is not feasible, it is reported that Sharon is prepared to initiate legislation to make it possible for him to do so. By law, Sharon can only fire Klein if he has continually demonstrated an inability or refusal to cooperate with the cabinet or to perform his duties properly.
Klein has no intention of making this easy for Sharon. A central bank official has said, "Klein will continue to make his views known and will continue to call for budget cuts and fiscal discipline." But Sharon will not stomach such criticism, and has repeatedly asked Klein to shut up - which Klein, to his credit, refuses to do. "The governor has repeatedly stated, in his many lectures, that he is a partner in the government's economic measures," the bank says.
But Sharon already has someone in mind: apparently he thinks former finance minister Yaakov Neeman would fit the bill nicely, although if local press reporting is anything to go by, he is the only one to think so. In fact, a lot of people think that binning your central bank governor for pursuing an anti-inflationary policy is not such a wise or confidence-enhancing move at all. Sharon also wants a new finance minister - he (Silvan Shalom) and Klein are barely able to talk to each other - and ironically Jacob Frenkel, Klein's predecessor at the Bank of Israel from 1991 to 1999 and currently president of Merrill Lynch International, is said to be considered for the position.
But if memory serves, Frenkel had his own bust-ups with the then Israeli government. And, however brilliant an economist he may be (one of Bob Mundell's many former students), Frenkel seems to us a much more prickly character than the soft-spoken, mild, diminutive Klein.
Yamaguchi Deflates Expectations
Talking in London this week, Yutaka Yamaguchi, deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, was cajoled by the chair into talking about the introduction of an inflation target for Japan as a means of escaping the agonies of deflation. Yamaguchi was less than enthusiastic: "I had not planned to speak about inflation targeting, but I suppose I have to." The glum prognosis continued in his final assessment with his personal view of why this oft-cited panacea for Japan's economic malady could not be administered. For Yamaguchi this would be "promising something to our people that we could not possibly deliver." It seems that the bank, not content with expectations of deflation, seeks to deflate expectations as well.
While there was not much optimism for a rise in the price level emanating from Yamaguchi, clearly somebody at the BoJ believes that some inflation is on the way, as Newsmakers learns that the BoJ is tendering for bids to print new banknotes. Why would they want to do a thing like that? More notes will only be required if the price level is expected to increase or if the government fancies a healthier dollop of seigniorage revenue. Alternatively it might be in preparation for a helicopter drop of money over Tokyo - about the only monetary policy tool the BoJ has left.
Who Cares For Accountability Anyway?
Prevailing opinion holds that
accountability is a good and desirable thing. So the One World
Trust has come up with the worthy idea of measuring accountability
in global institutions. Its Global Accountability Report 2003
http://www.oneworldtrust.org/Files/Pubs/GAP%20report/GAP2003_ES.pdf
(skip to page four for the most interesting bit) has surveyed
a disparate bunch, from trans-national corporations, to NGOs,
to inter-governmental institutions. It uses member control of
an organisation and access to online information as its criteria
for measuring this. While it admits these criteria are necessary
but not sufficient, one wonders if there are any other "necessary"
criteria that might have slipped their attention: NGOs, those
paragons of democracy and transparency, topped the list for being
the most accountable, while the Bank for International Settlements
actually came a resounding bottom.
But so what? Well actually, if a new study released by the BIS itself (see here: http://www.bis.org/publ/work123.htm) is anything to go by, this would seem not necessarily to be a bad thing. It casts profound doubt on whether those much-lauded virtues of transparency and accountability - among central banks anyway - are really that desirable after all.
The study suggests that if central bankers would only hold their tongues a little more, the markets would be able to make up their own minds rather than be led astray by garrulous central bankers who don't necessarily know any better: "When public information becomes entrenched in the prevailing 'climate of opinion' it begins to take on a life of its own, suppressing the private information of individual agents, and disrupting the channel through which the market mechanism aggregates and disseminates information on the economic fundamentals." So, leaving aside the credibility of the above-mentioned survey, at least it shows the BIS practices what it preaches.
Martian Madness
Einars Repse, former governor of Latvia's central bank and now the country's prime minister - and never one to stay out of the limelight - enjoys pulling his critics' legs. Swept to power on promises to banish corruption from Latvia, Repse is reported to have turned up for his first cabinet meeting with a pistol tucked into his belt. Separately, he has conceded: "I am a caught-out Martian and clearly nuts." Answering detractors who said his government was failing in its promises, he observed deadpan, "As it turns out, the government is full of thieves, smugglers, bribe-takers, people who deal with suspicious business partners, foreign services and spies."
Lean Times For Norway's Treasury
This year Norway's Treasury is not to get a bean from the central bank, which regrets that, as its accounts show a deficit of 24.1 billion krone for 2002 (compared to a deficit of 4.7 billion in 2001), there won't be much to go round for the government. A press release from the bank explained that the results "must be assessed against the background of Norges Bank's responsibilities", and pointed to how factors outside its control can lead to "wide annual fluctuations" in its accounts, highlighting how the appreciation of the krone set against the bad performance of the stock markets meant that reserves had taken a bit of a tumble. Will this make any difference to the bank's investment strategies, one can only wonder? To see the report click here: http://www.norges-bank.no/front/pressemelding/en/2003/2003-02-20T14-17-15.fgen.html
10 February 2003
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By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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A SAFE PAIR OF HANDS
Central bankers are generally held to be a sober and punctilious bunch, but you don't get that impression on reading Dallas Fed President Bob McTeer's latest speech. It is a rather lengthy affair, and dwells in an almost improperly self-deprecating fashion on his meteoric rise to fortune and glory. In a bid to banish any concern that punters may be over-confident in America's public policymakers, McTeer says, "I must confess to being seriously deficient in real math." He sounds almost proud of this, and goes on to describe his experiences on the Fed's rate-setting committee, the FOMC: "I went from being one teacher with 30 students per class to being the only student in a class with about 15 teachers. I had a lot of catching up to do, and I haven't caught up yet. I get to ask stupid questions, and they are supposed to answer them without calling them stupid, although I do detect an eye roll every now and then." Just to reassure his listeners that America's economy is being looked after with due care and attention, he sticks his oar in on the deflation debate, refusing to admit that the "zero-bound problem" is worth worrying about -- or, if by some extraordinary twist of fate it is, "I'll worry about it tomorrow. If that makes you nervous, relax. There are plenty of serious Dallas Fed economists who do worry about such matters, and they've promised to wake me up when the time comes." Good to know the world's largest economy is in safe hands then. Click here to read the speech.
KARMA CASH
The Dutch central bank has given the all clear to the well-meaning and well-known Indian mystic, Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, who has issued his own alternative currency, the "raam", as part of his mission to spread peace and love in the world. Last October, his organisation based in the Netherlands, the Global Country of World Peace, issued a series of colourful notes, denominated in ones, fives and tens, that the Dutch central bank has investigated and decided do not violate any laws. A spokesman for the bank said, "It is within the boundaries of the law... as long as the Maharishi doesn't suggest that this is legal tender and it doesn't resemble the euro... There is a closed circuit; transactions can only be made at certain shops." Raam are accepted in over 100 shops in the Netherlands at a fixed rate of 10 euros per raam. The Maharishi, whom the Beatles paid a much-publicised visit in India in 1968, and whose followers number some six million, also hopes to use the raam to help people barter goods and services as part of its aid programmes in developing countries.
NAKED AND HUNGRY? FORGET IT
Former Latvian central bank governor and now the country's prime minister, Einars Repse, has succeeded in performing an impressive feat of political acrobatics only weeks after coming to power: he has managed to triple his salary along with those of other ministers. "I'm not going to work and be naked and hungry [for my efforts]," he said controversially. It took little to persuade his fellow ministers to have this approved, but Repse said, "If I could have raised the salaries myself I would have done so, but I needed the support of ministers. This decision is correct and absolutely necessary. Ministers have to make decisions about millions of lats and their responsibilities are much greater than those of public servants." This move forms part of Repse's anti-corruption campaign as high salaries should encourage ministers to work hard while lowering the temptation to flesh out their income by illegitimate means. Also, Repse is trying to bring the Latvian economy into line with Western standards as soon as possible, although that would mean he would apparently actually have had to quadruple his salary -- are we to assume, then, that there are more pay rises in the offing...? Although many Latvians have reacted with outrage at Repse's self-imposed pay rise, at least one local editorial writer has a more measured outlook: "Latvians should feel lucky to have such an inspired and dynamic young man at their country's helm. If anybody will finally drag Latvia out of the Soviet quagmire at warp speed it is Repse."
HAPPY 175th ANNIVERSARY!
There have been lavish festivities at the central bank of the Netherlands Antilles to celebrate its 175th anniversary this month. Established in 1828, it is the oldest central bank in the world outside Europe, and only eight central banks were in operation by the time it was set up, most of them only a few years before -- with the notable exceptions of the Riksbank (established in 1668) and the Bank of England (1694). To commemorate this winsome occasion, the central bank has constructed a new building and is holding various events with such dignitaries present as Wim Duisenberg (who came especially to deliver a lecture), Arnoud Wellink (governor of its sister bank, De Nederlandsche Bank) and Anthony Caram (governor of the neighbouring Central Bank of Aruba). The celebrations kicked off with a lunch and lecture, and, in the middle of all the excitement, a spokesperson for the bank told Newsmakers that, "Yesterday evening we had a reception and today we have a brunch for the employees, and later in the afternoon we have the groundbreaking ceremony for a park that the bank has donated to the people of Curacao in general and the inhabitants of Scharloo (the neighbourhood our new building is located) in particular." Visit this link to read a speech by the central bank's governor, Emsley Tromp, in honour of the occasion: http://www.centralbank.an/speeches/main-27.htm
A MORE CONTROVERSIAL ANNIVERSARY
It also happens to be the 10th anniversary of the rather less well-established Trans-Dniester Republican Bank. In fact, nobody serious apart from the inhabitants of the breakaway, self-styled "Trans-Dniester Moldavian Republic" itself actually recognise this institution as a central bank, and least of all the piqued Moldovan central bank which is internationally recognised to be the true central bank for the area. In practice, however, the Trans-Dniester Republican Bank seems to have a fairly free rein over its territory, and is celebrating its birthday with the issue of a special commemorative coin, to go alongside the everyday currency it circulates, the Trans-Dniester rouble. Another thorn in the side of the Moldovans -- but in the spirit of free enterprise and adventure, Newsmakers wishes it a happy anniversary anyway. This is a link to their website: http://www.cbpmr.net/eng/
A STAB IN THE BACK
Chile's central bank governor, Carlos Massad, one of the most well-known and popular economists on the central banking circuit, has become the unwitting victim of an egregious act of treachery. Surely one of the most alarming dangers risked by any central banker became reality for Massad when he happened to detect irregularities in his email. Innocently thinking he might have a virus, he alerted the IT manager; but it transpired that, to his horror, his trusted personal secretary had been sending illicit emails from his computer to the CEO of a Chilean financial group, Inverlink. The precise contents of those emails remain undisclosed (although it is a subject of much interest to the local media, and generally assumed to be market-sensitive), but the secretary, Pamela Andrada, was sacked on the spot.
Massad pluckily admitted, "I bear the responsibility for having chosen a bad secretary." Hard to face up to considering that not only had she joined the central bank five years ago when he was appointed governor, but he had brought her with him from his previous post (as is quite normal) at the ministry of health. The recipient of the secretary's missives, one Enzo Bertinelli, took fright and resigned immediately. Some say that Bertinelli and Andrada were involved in an amorous entanglement. Inverlink washed its hands of the thing, denying involvement and saying that it was an isolated incident involving only Bertinelli. The bank is prosecuting Bertinelli and Andrada, and Massad just says he wants to get it over with as quickly as possible, and assures that it will have no effect on the markets.
The episode has caused uproar in Chile, triggering accusations that the central bank's credibility has been compromised and that its security measures are inadequate. The bank denies these accusations vigorously. Massad said, "I'm afraid that she has broken a basic rule of work in an institution like the central bank. Central bank employees have carried out their jobs carefully and prudently, and they have strictly obeyed their obligations for many years until this happened. This event is absolutely limited to strictly one person and it does not tarnish the reputation of the rest of the employees of the central bank."
In a press conference, the central bank's general manager rationally observed, "We are convinced that this is not something that can harm the credibility of the bank... Nobody is capable of guaranteeing 100% that one person, within an institution where there are 600 people, could not fail... It can happen to anybody that at a given moment a human being should radically change his attitudes and betray the trust that one has put in him. It is something that is very difficult to guarantee that it is not going to happen." He emphasised that the incident was "completely alien to the work ethic in the bank", admitting that it was "to a certain extent inexplicable". A moral lesson for governors everywhere.
FIGHTING TALK
With the metamorphosis of the former republic of Yugoslavia into Serbia-Montenegro, the National Bank of Yugoslavia (NBY) is set to become the National Bank of Serbia. This will be marked by the inauguration of a hulking new building for the national bank, a splendid space-age style piece of architecture (see the picture: http://www.nbj.yu/english/1_1_3.htm). A central bank in Montenegro also began operations in March 2001, although it does not issue currency (visit here to find out more on its website: http://www.cb-mn.org/indexE.htm).
The new issue of Central Banking journal features an exclusive interview with Mladjan Dinkic, the governor of NBY, who is not so sure about the direction in which things are heading: "I am a pessimist. I do not think that we can have one country with two economic systems. We have this union... but we have two central banks, two currencies, two customs, two banking systems and no harmonising of systems. So basically it cannot survive in the long term."
The process of the creation of this new state has also put the bank's independence in jeopardy, furnishing politicians with a prime opportunity to meddle: "There was an attempt by the prime minister to use these constitutional games to put the position of the central bank in question. This has caused a big debate between myself and the prime minister." For the moment Dinkic seems to have succeeded in fending off hostile intruders, but the fight is by no means over. Defending assaults on the central bank's independence he says is his principal challenge, and Dinkic vows, "I will fight against it and do my utmost to prevent it to the very end."
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HANDS IN THE TILL
The central bank in Paraguay has had to put up with another old favourite of politicians: the plundering of its coffers. The oldest game in the business. It appears that Paraguay's president has been liberally helping himself to lashings of cash from the bank's stash, but was unfortunate enough to get his hands caught in the till. President Luis Gonzalez Macchi is sitting through impeachment proceedings, accused on five counts of corruption -- one of which is the embezzlement of $26 million from the central bank. He has not shown the slightest display of agitation, however, saying of the trial, "I watched everything; it was nice." He seems quite resigned to his fate, and has admitted to having no problem with quitting his job: "I have very few clothes and everything will be very quick. I will take my little bag and leave Mburuvicha Roga [the presidential palace]."
SETTING THINGS STRAIGHT
Newsmakers would like to reassure anyone who was labouring under the illusion that the governor of the central bank in Uzbekistan, Fayzulla Mullajonov, had been sacked that this is not the case. In fact it was just a "joke" of some Uzbek wag who thought it would be good for a laugh to circulate the rumour that the head of a commercial bank, Toshpolatov, was acting in his place. Pure fabrication. The story maintained that the National Security Service officers had detained Mullajonov's nephew having found a large amount of foreign currency and Uzbek soms on him -- which somehow seemed to mean that Mullajonov would lose his job. Not so -- he is still very much alive and kicking, as a quick call to the central bank would confirm, and his five-year term does not expire until 2006.
THE BRIDGE ZONE
Newsmakers can divulge that there is a network of central bankers who spice up their spare time by playing that mother of card games, bridge. This is in fact a longstanding tradition amongst various European central banks, and a number of now heavyweight central bankers are known to have taken part, including no other than Eddie George -- although this would have been some 20 years ago. Although there is no formal format, tournaments are these days held on a multilateral basis, and each participating country hosts at least every ten years. Most recently, the Bank of England hosted last year's tournament in Brighton, which it succeeded in winning. Well done! Other participants included Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, as well as the EIB and the BIS. The BIS is said to put out a pretty mean team, and was runner up. This despite the fact that it is a considerably leaner organisation than most of its opponents; and what's more they apparently put out the same team for all the interbank competitions, be it tennis, football, chess... The Italians are also keen bridge players, Newsmakers hears, while the Dutch enjoy the occasions as a first class opportunity to rub shoulders with their peers. One notable absentee from these gatherings is Germany. Comparing the make-up of the euro zone to what might be styled the bridge zone could yield some interesting observations.
YAM MEETS XIAOCHUAN
Click on the link below for
a nice picture displaying touching solidarity between Hong Kong's
zappy central bank and its neighbouring colossus. Joseph Yam,
chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, paid a visit
to welcome the appointment of the new governor of the People's
Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan:
http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/press/2003/20030129e3_index.htm
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
Benedict
Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications Ltd
6 Langley Street, London WC2H 9JA, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 3625
Fax: +44 (0)20 7836 3608
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk
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