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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
16 December 2002
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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/
By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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DÉJÀ VU?
It's becoming rather repetitive. Argentina is now onto its fourth (yes, fourth) central bank governor in the past twelve months. Newsmakers wondered at the time of his appointment at the end of June how long Aldo Pignanelli would last in the job - well the answer is, 21 days longer than the last one! (Mario Blejer, remember?). Well done him - he managed to grip onto the bucking bronco that is the Argentine central bank governorship for no less than five and a half (what must have been very long) months - a total of 170 days (it is beginning to seem more appropriate to measure the length of tenure of the governor of the Argentine central bank in days rather than months - or years, come to that). Pignanelli kicked it all in at a summit in Brasilia, not able to see eye to eye with Lavagna over talks with the IMF since he took on the job, favouring repayment to international institutions. The straw that broke the camel's back was reportedly Lavagna's decision not to send Pignanelli a copy of the final draft of the most recent letter of intent between Buenos Aires and the IMF.
Let's see how the next one fares. If he, Alfonso Prat Gay, can break the six-month barrier, then he's a better man than, well, most people. He is certainly young enough to bring some verve and spirit to the job, at a sprightly 37. That actually makes him one of the youngest governors on the circuit, pipped to the post by the greenest of all, Irakli Managadze from Georgia. If Prat Gay can make friends with the economy minister, Roberto Lavagna, then he may be in with a chance, as constant run-ins with the government seem to be a recurrent ailment of the governorship of Argentina's central bank - although he is more of an orthodox liberal economist compared to Lavagna's more radical, interventionist approach.
But it is hoped that Prat Gay stands a better chance. Previously a highly respected currency analyst at JP Morgan, and Alfredo Atanasof (Argentina's chief government spokesman) has said of him: "He is a young, independent man who will strengthen the central bank's independent role, and has shown that he wants to sustain the level of foreign reserves and maintain economic stability." In fact, he was actually nominated to the post of vice-governor by the previous economy minister, Domingo Cavallo, who is now in rather bad odour. He had invited Prat Gay to join the central bank in mid-2001, although his appointment was at the time deemed unconstitutional owing to a law that Cavallo since had amended, to do with the conflict of interest of his previous job in the private sector and working for the state. This law will still mean that he has his hands tied, and if the law is to be followed strictly, he ought not to be able to participate in meetings with private creditors or hold talks with investment banks in competition with JP Morgan, or even take decisions on the regulation of local banks. It remains to be seen to what extent this will hinder his performance.
Another question is how long his term is to last. Cynics will counter that that should hardly matter, given that he'll become legendary if he lasts more than a year. At the moment he is on a temporary contract, as Pignanelli was, but opinion is divided as to whether he should remain so until Duhalde leaves power or whether he should be given a fixed term, although it would be unlikely that this would be the full six years that the constitution allows. It is possible that he may be allowed to complete the legal term cut short by Pedro Pou's departure - that would take him up to September 2004. But all of this could be purely academic, although let's hope not. As one official said of him recently, "He could become the Arminio Fraga of Argentina." Good luck.
AND IN BRAZIL...
Meanwhile, Brazilians and international investors are breathing again now that it has finally been announced who is to succeed the revered, soon-to-be-ex-governor of the central bank in Brazil, Arminio Fraga. A tough act to follow, but Henrique Meirelles is the one who finally accepted the job - several candidates are said to have declined the offer, on grounds of uncertainty and the rather off-putting judicial inquiries into the alleged misbehaviour of former central bank governors, but Meirelles said he was satisfied with the guarantees he was given. Meirelles seems keen to give it his best shot, and his appointment has been received extremely positively by commentators and economists. He is a trained engineer and economist himself (with letters after his name from Harvard), and was previously the head of FleetBoston, so he is of their kind, and seen to hold orthodox views. He did however resign from his position in August to run in the elections: he won a seat (which he has now had to relinquish) for the main right-wing opposition party, which happily does not seem to have worried left-wing Lula, Brazil's president-elect. Meirelles is seen to have a great capacity to put together a good and cohesive team; his greatest challenge will be to win back credibility from international creditors. This should be feasible as he is already well known by foreign investors. Although he has a great deal of administrative experience, one handicap could be his lack of technical expertise, although some say this is only a small detail as he can draft in people with such expertise to assist him. So now all eyes are peeled to see what further appointments will be made in the central bank. There should be plenty more changes to come yet.
BRASH PRAISES MENDZELA
A recent article that appeared in the Financial Times Observer column picked up on a couple of articles that were published in the latest edition of Central Banking journal (which the FT kindly described as "a must-read bible among the world's half a million central bankers!) and were critical of leadership in central banks. It quoted the editorial which suggested that central banks should be run more like businesses, as well as an article by John Mendzela, who was hired by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to help improve its efficiency over a decade ago. Although neither of these articles made any mention of the Bank of England, the FT piece made the link with the recent announcement of Mervyn King's appointment to become governor of the Bank of England when Eddie George's term expires next June, but said that King was unlikely to be seeking Mendzela's help as the Bank had "never heard of a John Mendzela."
Be that as it may, he did in fact play a central role in achieving some pretty impressive things at the RBNZ. Don Brash, the governor of the bank at the time, told Newsmakers how a new law meant that the RBNZ would have to cut its budget back to $56.7 million per annum (a number that Brash says is "indelibly burnt into my memory!") for the five years beginning 1990/91, as well as depriving the bank of its seigniorage income. Although Brash was "very worried" about this, "John Mendzela scoffed at my nervousness, and assured me that we could, easily, live within that annual figure for five years. He was embarrassingly correct - by 1994/95, the fifth of the five years, we were under-spending the agreed annual figure by 38 per cent!!" Consequently Brash has a "very high regard" for Mendzela, and while "no one person deserves all the credit for the improvement in efficiency at the RBNZ (we reduced staffing from 550 to 185 during the 14 years I was Governor, with basically unchanged functions), John Mendzela was certainly one of those who made a very useful contribution to that process."
SEASON'S GREETINGS
Don Brash's
successor, Allan Bollard, has confounded those who are used to
scrutinising monetary policy announcements for the slightest innuendo
when they received an announcement of a rather different kind
from him recently. It came in the form of a rather innocuous-looking
Christmas card that Bollard designed himself (something he also
used to do at the Treasury - Bollard has joked, "Every job
I've been in I have tried to improve the quality of the coffee
and the Christmas cards") bearing the (seasonal?) message,
"stability is next to godliness". There was also a picture
of Goldilocks sitting in between a bull and a bear eating hot
and cold porridge respectively, as well as a neat little rhyme
elaborating on the picture. Analysts simply didn't know what to
make of it. Was there a hidden message there, somewhere? What
exactly was Bollard trying to communicate? One commentator suggested,
in all seriousness, that the message could be interpreted as "a
secret desire by the Reserve Bank Governor to achieve price stability,
rather than inflation of 1 to 3 per cent" and consequently
an increase in interest rates could be expected soon. Another
was taken by the inclusion of the word "almost" in the
poem (see below), which clearly indicated a shift in the bank's
until now neutral stance in monetary policy, and that concerns
for inflation may prompt an interest-rate rise. All hot air of course. Central bankers will know better - Bollard was
just poking some gentle fun. As Bollard told Newsmakers, "The
card was intended to spread Christmas cheer and tease those who
take monetary policy pronouncements too seriously."
IT WASN'T ME
Hudayberdi Orazow, the fugitive former Turkmen central bank governor, and one of the crusaders struggling to rid the benighted country of its crazed tyrannical president, has alleged that the recent assassination attempt on President Nyyazow was in fact "a poorly staged pretence." He ridiculed the notion that anyone would trouble themselves to attack the president while in his armoured car: "Everyone in Turkmenistan knows that Nyyazow's cars are invulnerable. When I was central bank chairman, we bought two cars - a Mercedes and a jeep - in Stuttgart specially for the president. They were already armoured, but they were sent to the Czech Republic for additional armour to be fitted. An additional 200,000 dollars was paid for each car. Even a grenade launcher could not pierce those cars now." Orazow also pointed to the fact that Nyyazow "managed to find culprits and ideological inspirers 30 minutes after he reached the [presidential] palace" - which he notes casts doubt on the report's plausibility.
In any case, the aims of Orazow and the rest of the opposition movement do not include seeing Nyyazow dead. Orazow was quite emphatic about this, and when pushed by an interviewer, he ejaculated: "No! No! No! We need Nyyazow alive. The billions of dollars that have been stolen from Turkmenistan.... If he dies, who will return them to us?" Apart from that, the opposition movement is a touch more enlightened than the president, and says it refuses to resort to terror tactics. For his part, Nyyazow has been doing his best to deter further potential assailants. He has been putting on public concerts to keep the people happy, during which he has had performers dragged on stage to condemn the people behind his "assassination attempt." They chanted: "O God, may those who made an attempt on the life of Serdar (Nyyazow) never see any joy, and may the curse of damnation hang over their heads forever. May those betrayers be damned for betrayal and never prosper, and may their daily meal turn into poison." Rather them than me.
A GOOD DAY TO GO TO THE SAUNA?
The besieged chief of Ukraine's central bank, Volodymyr Stelmakh, has survived yet another attempt by Parliament on his governorship, as the session during which it was intended to have him voted out seemed to descend into a childish brawl. Parliament had to adjourn five times on Thursday as the opposition were causing mayhem by consistently sabotaging the electronic voting system, overturning computers with gay abandon and pulling as many plugs out as they could lay their hands on. They were said to be chanting "Down with Kuchma!" (Ukraine's president) and there were slapstick scenes reminiscent of Monty Python sketches as grown men scrapped and taunted each other. But behind all the shenanigans and tomfoolery, the opposition had a serious point: the central bank will lose its credibility and political independence if its current governor is replaced. For his part Stelmakh merely says, "I am not eternal. According to the law, my term in office expires on 21 January 2005, and I must resign. That is, if everything goes the way it should, according to the law." But he is a pragmatist at heart. When asked what he would do when Parliament was supposed to vote him out (he wasn't to know of course how things would eventually turn out), he shrugged, "We'll see when we get to Thursday. And the Thursday following it, and all the other Thursdays. Thursday is a clean day, a good day to go to the sauna..." In fact, it seems like certain members of Parliament could have done with a nice cold shower.
NEWSMAKERS CHRISTMAS QUIZ - ANSWERS BACK BY 24 DECEMBER
PRIZE: THE WINNER WILL BE SENT A FREE COPY OF THE 2003 EDITION OF THE CENTRAL BANK DIRECTORY
1. In February while out on the stump extolling the virtues of a cashless economy and saying that his country's penchant for cash caused "inconvenience, wastefulness and risk", which central bank governor was found to have neither a credit card or a bank account?
2. Which US academic told Central Banking journal that Anne Krueger's proposal for dealing with sovereign debt was "One of those ideas that will never happen"?
3. When Lizardo Sosa, the governor
of the Central Bank of Guatemala was kidnapped in late February
the villains grabbed him during his regular early morning what?
a) jog
b) ablution
c) economics homework
d) nap
4. "I do agree with Alan Greenspan. What exactly did he say?" Which governor said this?
5. Which governor took a 10% pay-cut in April?
6. Many wept when Afxentis Afxentiou
quit the Cypriot central bank in April - how long had he been
in charge?
a)10 years
b)20 years
c) 30 years
d) 32 years
7. Viktor Gerashchenko was a
worried man in May at the press conference following his "resignation",
saying "If I don't manage to get the pension bonus awarded
to former state employees I'll have to work." But what job
did he say he was contemplating?
a)Garbage collector
b) investment banker
c)personal trainer and lifestyle guru
d) street sweeper
8. In May, according to the
now sadly much-missed Rudiger Dornbusch which official had been
"doing nothing"?
a) Larry Lindsey
b)John "the Rule" Taylor
c)Alan Greenspan
d)Bill McDonough
9. Who said this: "Now let me introduce Alan, whose record is much to be envied. Particularly perhaps by me."
10. In May Newsmakers welcomed
a new central bank - where?
a)Carpathia
b)Gibraltar
c)Tartaristan
d)East Timor
e)Madagascar
11. In July which governor's face appeared on targets at a rifle range in the nation's capital, with people queuing up to take potshots?
12. "If I were a Briton I would be against joining it". Which Nobel prize winner made his feelings on the euro perfectly clear in an exclusive interview with Central Banking journal in August?
13. Alan Greenspan was knighted
by Queen Elizabeth in September, and as a result of this great
award, and lavish ceremony the vintage central banker has been
henceforth formally known as:
a)Sir Alan
b)Sir Greenspan
c)Baron Greenspan of Washington
d)Mr Greenspan
e)M'Lord Fed
f)Your Grace?
14. Which ex-governor said his finance minister was like a "fat jockey slowing down [his country's] thoroughbred economy"?
15. "Thus no sport or recreational activity must be seen to be in any way black or white, but must be truly South African - black, white and women. So let us go out and spread the gospel." Which sport was Tito Mboweni talking about?
16. Which former central bank governor became prime minister of Latvia in November?
17. "You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." Now, now, there, there old boy - chin up. Who was this contrite central banker, what was he apologising for, and who is the "you"?
18. How many governors have there been this year in Argentina?
19. How many central bankers are there in the world?
2 December 2002
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By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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BERNANKE REVEALS FED's SECRET WEAPON
Ben Bernanke, newly-appointed Fed governor and an advocate of inflation targeting, has revealed the Fed's secret weapon in combating the perils of deflation: the printing press. And by saying the un-sayable, the tidy-bearded academic may have landed himself in a spot of bother. His willingness to opine on sensitive subjects with an academic's approach does not fit with the more discreet world of central banks or finance ministries as John Taylor has recently discovered.
Speaking to a group of economists in Washington on the possibility of the US succumbing to a bout of deflation Bernanke unveiled his credible threat: "The US government has a technology, called a printing press -- or today, its electronic equivalent -- that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost," he is reported as saying.
Bernanke later sought to clarify his remarks saying he was committed to price stability, and that the government is fully equipped to deal with deflation. But the governor may have learnt that such academic honesty will need to be curbed if he wants to move any further up the FOMC table. As Newsmakers reported last issue, in a recent speech Bernanke admitted the Fed should take the blame for the 1930s depression. Is he gearing up for the next one?
HAYAMI'S SPENDING SPREE BEGINS
The Bank of Japan's programme to buy shares from the country's ailing banking sector officially started 29 November, but the bank is being coy about any actual purchases. Masaru Hayami, governor at the bank, outlined the central bank's aims when speaking to parliament on Thursday 28, saying: "We want to help create an environment where banks can restore their health by reducing their risk to stock price movements. It is a temporary measure with a limited timeframe." However he remained guarded on the timing, again saying to parliament: "Just because we begin the scheme on [November] 29th does not mean it will be used immediately that day." The central bank does not plan to disclose the names of the banks or the shares involved in the purchases, but the money involved will of course show up on its balance sheet published every ten days.
However, Asahi News reports that the Bank of Japan appears to have been offered $41-49m worth of shares from a group of banks including Sonari group and Chuo Mitsui trust bank. With a limit of $4.1 billion per bank it appears that Hayami is still only window-shopping in Otemachi. And with a total budget of $163 billion to use up by September next year, Newsmakers thinks he had better get a move on.
MERVYN "THE LION" KING PROMOTED
Mervyn King will be the next governor of the Bank of England, it was revealed this week. With Sir Edward George in the post until June next year it is expected that the changeover will be smooth. But along with headlines announcing the arrival of the King, some are starting to worry that King's management style and dominance of the MPC, coupled with a fierce reputation make him something of a Lion King.
Life at the Bank of England will certainly be different under Mervyn King's stewardship. It will be interesting to see whether his forceful presence is reflected in the voting records of the MPC. King has a reputation as an interest rate hawk. He has often favoured interest rate rises or smaller cuts than the majority. In his 67 meetings on the MPC, the deputy governor has voted for tighter policy than the consensus on 12 occasions. Some former Bank officials say there was a sense among the staff that "you either belonged to his camp or you didn't. The kind of people likely to be promoted in King's Bank will be highly trained economists with intellectual rigour and those lacking such skills may fear for their hopes of advancement. The appointment is bound to raise speculation that the Treasury is becoming more sceptical about UK membership of the euro with the publication of the results of the five economic tests for euro entry. But we say, all this is rubbish. All sensible people have reservations about the merits of the euro. Of course the central bank's role is to deliver whatever the government decides on. As Gordon Brown said to parliament on King's appointment, "I can assure the house that the same steady grip will continue." However, it will be interesting to see if the Bank delivers its own verdict and whether it is asked to do so "by a competent authority." The new deputy governor is likely to be a manager rather than an economist. Too many economists will just result in more squabbling.
CENTRAL BED
Newsmakers was concerned to learn that a boy who ran away from his home in Ireland has been sleeping rough, but not just anywhere. Dublin children's court heard last week that because his father did not want him at home the boy had since been seen sleeping rough on the steps of the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin. Latest reports suggest the family are patching things up.
Newsmakers always has sympathy for those down on their luck, but this Eurozone citizen need only look towards London and the Bank of England to realise he is not the only one left out in the cold.
This reminds us of the story of the boy who asked his dad, "What shall I do when I grow up? The father replied, "Nestle close to the source of the money supply." Good advice, but not to be taken too literally.
HELPING PARAGUAY A HOPELESS TASK?
The president of the Central Bank of Paraguay, Dr Raul Jose Vera Bogado, resigned on Wednesday 20 citing a lack of support from Congress for the government's attempts to win much-needed IMF aid. "I'm frustrated that I haven't been able to find the backing from Congress needed to improve the economy", he said. Adding to reporters that "Hopefully whoever replaces me will have some better ideas to help Paraguay." His resignation was quickly followed by that of the finance minister two days later who gave much the same reasons. The economy in Paraguay has been suffering contagion from the Argentine crisis and the local currency, the guarani, has lost over 40% of its value against the US dollar this year.
Dr Bogado is not alone in this sorry state however as South American central bank governors have taken a bit of a pounding recently. In July, in neighbouring Uruguay the central bank governor Cesar Rodriguez Batlle had to call it a day when the finance minister resigned as he lacked political support in the midst of financial crisis. And in Argentina, where the troubles originated with its devastating debt default in December 2001, central bank governors have found the job tricky to hold down. Before the present governor Aldo Pignanelli took charge in June, Mario Blejer gave the job a crack but only lasted six months in the face of constant disagreements with the finance ministry and even fears for his own personal safety, he decided to quit. Roque Maccarone before him lasted only a little longer with nine months on the clock, but after Argentina's cataclysmic default, he forgivably did not feel too comfortable staying on.
Then there is Brazil, where Arminio Fraga who with Carlos Massad of Chile counts as among the most distinguished governors in the subcontinent is counting his days as the country's new president 'Lula' would prefer to have one of his own appointees in charge of the central bank. Newsmakers can also point to the cases of Honduras and El Salvador where the previous governors left before their terms expired over the last year.
PARLIAMENTARY REPRIEVE FOR UKRAINE GOVERNOR
Despite calls for his resignation from both the prime minister and the president, Volodymyr Stelmakh, the chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine has won a reprieve from parliament by the narrowest of margins. The president's call for his dismissal received 214 votes in the Supreme Council yesterday only 12 short of the majority needed.
Stelmakh has been under pressure for some time and voiced his concerns for his job in an interview published in Stolichnyye Novosti only a few days before the president's proposal reached the parliament. The chairman said the moves by the government had breached the norms of both the constitution and laws governing the central banks. And as far as the motives were concerned: "It's politics, pure and simple." Stemakh also expressed his incredulity at the actions of the prime minister, Anatoliy Kinakh, in issuing a letter complaining about the central bank's policies and personnel changes:
"As a professional, I was upset that the statement signed by the premier did not quote a single professional argument, not a single factual confirmation of what was stated, even though Kinakh and I had a thorough discussion of all these issues for 45 minutes. At that time Mr Kinakh did not raise a single complaint. And suddenly this piece of paper."
With inflation at historically low levels, bank deposits growing, and the exchange rate vs the dollar stable during Stelmakh's tenure, President Kuchma's claim that the central bank's policies have damaged economic growth seem unfounded. Kuchma's proposal also included the nomination of Sehiy Tyhypko, a leader of a pro-presidential faction in parliament and holder of shares in the commercial banking sector, as successor to Stelmakh.
Sources at the central bank expressed "surprise" at the result as the pro-president coalition numbers 230 and therefore it appears that some parliamentarians "did not vote the way they should have done." Employees at the central bank were glad that their chairman was still there, but they "do not know how long" he will remain, a source told Newsmakers. There remains an expectation in the bank that this matter is far from closed and another attempt may be made as early as December 10.
PLAY MORE GOLF SAYS MBOWENI
While Newsmakers has long been aware of South African Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni's passion for fly fishing, his love of golf came as a surprise to us. We hear that the central bank chief has even advised Thabo Mbeki, President of the rainbow nation, to take up the game. The challenge was duly undertaken and a spokesman for Mbeki said last week, "Sunday was his second golfing practice, but he's making unbelievable progress". In fact Mbeki even hopes to challenge the most powerful man on earth, the spokesman adding, "He said he would like to take on President Bush when he comes for a state visit in January". While South Africans love their games, and will host the cricket world cup next February, Mboweni's advice has little to do with sport. Mboweni explained to South Africa's parliament, "because through a game of golf with captains of industry, the president might be able to address their fears about South Africa's economy."
While the President is a beginner, Newsmakers has no doubts about Tito Mboweni's golfing skills, he'll always hit the green. But whether the central banker hits his inflation target may prove something more of a concern.
ECB LOOKS TO PASTURES NEW
The European Central Bank has announced the launch of an international urban planning and architectural design competition for its new premises. The purpose of the competition is to identify the best design concepts for the ECB's future home and to select an architect to carry out the detailed planning work for the new premises and, if possible, to implement the project. The site will be developed to accommodate 2,500 workplaces, with office space and special areas covering a main usable area of approximately 100,000 square meters, plus all the necessary parking areas and technical facilities. Architects need to get cracking, however, as Newsmakers learns the deadline for applications is January. The competition is open to architects from all over the world. An open call for candidature has been published in the Official Journal of the European Communities and on the ECB's website. A jury composed of internationally renowned architects and representatives of the City of Frankfurt and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) will then short-list 12 candidates to be admitted to the second phase.
Newsmakers asks: just how large will the ECB Presidents office be? And will candidates for the position of architect, whose plans "don't quite measure up" find themselves looking for another job?
We understand that the offices of the full-time executive director will be palatial. Funny that, as some outsiders think they actually don't have enough to do.
TROUBLE IN TURKMENISTAN
An attempted assassination on the mad President of Turkmenistan, Saparmurat Niyazov, last week is alleged to have involved a former central bank governor in the troubled state.
Niyazov was driving to work last Monday when a truck cut in front of his car and blocked the path of three accompanying cars. Gunmen opened fire on the convoy from two minibuses and a car, while other gunmen emerged from nearby buildings and fired, a spokesman for the president said. Of sixteen people detained following the ambush, four implicated former Turkmenistan Central Bank chief Khudaiberdi Orazov in the plot. A former Finance Minister as well as others were also named. But speaking this week. A spokesman Serdar Durdyev said the government had intercepted telephone conversations between Orazov and a "very high" Russian official arranging Mr. Orazov's flight from Turkmenistan last year. Orazov, reached on a mobile telephone in a country he declined to identify this week, said the opposition in exile strongly opposed violence against Mr. Niyazov.
"Yes we want to topple him, yes we want to establish a secular, democratic state in our motherland. But we will never resort to such methods," the exiled former central banker is quoted as saying.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"My children say: 'Daddy, what on earth are you doing? Will they continue to pay you?' " Sir Edward George recently confessed to the FT's Observer his children's far from flattering assessment of the Bank of England's inertia on interest rates: Surely someone out there will appreciate Steady Eddie's qualities of leadership next June...
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
Benedict
Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications Ltd
6 Langley Street, London WC2H 9JA, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 3625
Fax: +44 (0)20 7836 3608
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk
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