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Welcome to the Central Bank Insider Archives. We are pleased to be able to provide you with this intimate look at central banking events, policies, and staff. Commentary is updated as available (generally bi-weekly) and archived monthly. The source commentary "Newsmakers" is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission and by courtesy of Central Banking Publications Ltd.
28 June 2002
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A selection of news stories from CentralBankNet
http://www.centralbanknet.com/
By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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SOROS SAYS CENTRAL BANKS SHOULD BAILOUT BRAZIL
In the wake of the current economic crisis in Brazil, George Soros has said that leading central banks should open their discount windows and refinance the holders of Brazilian debt. Indeed, he expressed surprise that central banks had not already spoken out on this issue publicly. He said the bailout should involve an appropriate haircut taking account of the cost of the risk, with central banks lending against paper at around 80% of its market value. His remarks came on Thursday at a talk on the current state of the global economy at the London Business School.
Soros also conveyed serious concern about the falling value of the dollar. While the collapse of Enron and WorldCom is a logical consequence of the last boom, the decline of the dollar is not, and this comes as a surprise to him. A lower value of the dollar could be healthy if there was a countervailing domestic stimulus in the rest of the world. Unfortunately the world is suffering from what he termed the "Bush bear market" which he described as a loss of confidence in the management of the financial system. He talked of a general pursuit of national self-interest in the US, and that it was not living up to the responsibility of being the dominant global financial power.
Soros believes that the "motor for the global economy is off," and that we need to "replace the motor". This would involve stimulating domestic-led growth, he said, but unfortunately this is constrained by the IMF economic orthodoxy, which Soros believes needs readjusting.
One problem he sees is that while the institutions in place in developed countries work well, the world as a whole lacks effective global institutions, and this means that the countries on the periphery of the global financial system lose out. Soros warned of the "inherent disparity between the centre and the periphery," explaining that capital flows freely enough to the centre of the system, but it does not flow freely back out again to the periphery.
This is partly because there is no effective international lender of last resort now that the IMF's resources are inadequate given the sheer size of the global market. He said that the issue of Special Drawing Rights would allow reserves to increase, which would go a long way to solving the problems of the global economy.
BLEJER: "I'VE HAD ENOUGH"
At last Mario Blejer has thrown in the towel. And who can blame him? Being governor of a central bank in a country in the grip of economic turmoil with hyperinflation looming large, and where your repeated efforts to resolve matters are nullified by cantankerous politicians must be exasperating, to say the least. He said: "I've had enough. I cannot walk freely in the street. I'm tired of all these lies and operations to intimidate me." Blejer handed in his resignation last Friday much to the dismay of many Argentines who now more than ever fear that their country will never succeed in hauling itself out of the ditch.
On Blejer's recommendation, President Duhalde has appointed Aldo Pignanelli as the new governor, previously vice-president of the central bank, in defiance of economy minister Roberto Lavagna's schemes to nominate his own candidate, Alberto Camarasa. Instead Camarasa has been appointed to the board of directors, and with a few more appointments in its favour the economy ministry also purportedly now has the press office sitting comfortably in its pocket. The principal reason for Blejer's resignation was his rocky relationship with Lavagna: he complained in his resignation letter of growing encroachments on central bank independence by the economy ministry. In Washington this week he reiterated that "It is vital to fend off the advances of other powers over the central bank." He said that "independence has been repeatedly weakened in recent times," and that "it has been difficult to fight against this."
It is widely feared that under Pignanelli the bank will be even more vulnerable to political turpitude, and many fear that independence will soon be little more than a fading memory. But will Pignanelli be around for long enough for this to matter? Blejer is the third central bank chief to leave in a year - and let's not forget that Argentina has also seen six economy ministers and three presidents in roughly the same period. Look back to Argentina's last financial crisis in the late 1980s, and we will see that in 1989 the central bank governor changed no less than four times, while in 1990 the governor was changed a further three times. How long can we give Pignanelli before he too tires of the job?
PRESIDENT TRICHET
If we couldn't already, we can now safely say that Jean-Claude Trichet will be the man to replace Wim Duisenberg. After a series of closed-door meetings in Seville, where the EU leaders gathered for their last set to, the leaders of Germany, France and Italy unofficially agreed that Trichet should be the next president of the ECB. Despite hang-ups about France's ability to balance its budget on time, a German financial official said that "Trichet is the best-qualified person to take over from Duisenberg, so we have no trouble endorsing him." The Luxembourg central bank governor Yves Mersch thinks Trichet "has enormous merits for the promotion of the idea of stability" in the Eurozone, but when asked to comment on the subject of his succeeding Duisenberg, he said that while "I am very loyal in my friendships", the decision is one for EU leaders. "They have discussed it. Most of them will remember what has been said. It is up to them to live up to their memories or to hand over their memories to their successors," he said. The remaining 12 member states of the EU will ratify the unofficial decision made in Seville.
GREENBACK'S RETIREMENT
Farewell, sweet Greenback. Hail the coming of the new Multicolouredback. It doesn't have quite the same ring, but financial journalists will soon have to dream up some other fitting synonym for the dollar if they wish to jazz up their prose. The new versions of the $20, $50 and $100 notes are to be redesigned, and each will be different - although quite understandably the Bureau of Engraving and Printing will not say exactly how. After all it will be quite a leap - the first time, in fact, that another colour has been used since 1862, when the first $1 and $2 notes were issued. But why the need to rebrand this most characteristic of notes? Although there has been mention of the fact that it might be a deterrent to counterfeiters, Newsmakers can reveal that it is really because some tourists find the notes muddling. And of course you can see why: all the different notes are not only the same size but also the same colour. Some may point out that there are numbers to allow you to distinguish one denomination from the other, but frankly, I think that may be assuming rather too much of the user.
WRINKLY EUROS
For all the braggadocio over the unmitigated success of the introduction of the euro notes and coins, there are some who would beg to differ. As a sequel to the recent brouhaha with the fading five-pound note, it seems that the euro is suffering from a similar allergy. Or so say the Finns. They have been complaining that the cotton-fibre paper of the euro notes simply doesn't compare with the good old markka notes, which were of a far sturdier cast. Apparently the euro suffers from premature ageing and becomes wrinkly distressingly quickly, in particular the 5 and 20 denominations. This has meant that only half of used 20 euro notes can be reused in ATMs, while the low value of the 5 euro notes means they get battered around mercilessly leaving them all haggard and drawn. However, the Bank of Finland claims that there have been no more returns of worn notes than under the old currency - but as they are new and there are fewer of them in circulation since transactions are increasingly carried out with plastic, this may be misleading. Anyway, the ECB says that the average life expectancy of a euro note is approximately one year, so we will just have to wait and see.
BROADSIDE ASSAULT FROM CULLEN
In the past it has been claimed that there is no tension between New Zealand's finance ministry and the Reserve Bank, but recent events belie this assertion. It could be put down to point-scoring for the forthcoming elections, but finance minister Michael Cullen revealed a more pugnacious side when he criticised the central bank's management of monetary policy, accusing it of failing to interpret correctly the bank's Policy Target Agreement with the government. He went as far as to suggest that it might need to be rewritten when the new governor is appointed later this year.
Cullen is worried that the bank is being too hawkish on interest rates and thus "the economy is condemned to a sentence of sub-par growth in which monetary policymakers assume little responsibility for the underemployment of resources." He said the government was trying to achieve flexible inflation targeting consistent with a strong growth strategy, and taking an indirect swipe at acting governor Rod Carr, said "We must ensure the Policy Targets Agreement is expressed in a way where the bank is clear about that. I thought that was clear. It is apparent from recent comments from the bank that that is not clear." For his part, former governor Don Brash maintained he had followed the PTA to the letter, and indeed had not received a word of criticism from Cullen during his tenure: "I do not accept that over the last decade on average monetary policy has been too tight."
A TALE OF TWO CENTRAL BANKS
It is unusual for one nation to have two central banks, but that seems to be the case in Madagascar. Following disputed presidential elections in December 2001, there are now in effect two administrations in place: that of Marc Ravalomanana, whose supporters began a series of strikes in support of their demands for a recount of the election results, and that of the outgoing president, Didier Ratsiraka, which was forced to relocate to Toamasina on the east coast of the island.
In early February, there were rumours that the Ratsiraka government had removed funds from the central bank in Antananarivo, and consequently pro-Ravalomanana supporters set up a blockade of the bank. Although the law governing the central bank states that it is based in Antananarivo, Ratsiraka established a "central bank" of his own in Toamasina, appointing as his governor the previous director general of the official central bank, Ferdinand Velomita. Marc Ravalomanana reappointed former governor Gaston Ravelojaona in his position. A further complication emerged when it transpired that Ratsiraka's "central bank" had acquired a SWIFT machine together with authorisation codes. In order to prevent either side accessing Madagascar's reserves held overseas, central banks in other countries froze the central bank's accounts and they remain frozen until now, as the political crisis has not been resolved.
Furthermore, the Interbank Currency Market has not been operational since January (apart from one day in February) and the rate of exchange effective then remains in force, even though it is believed that the Franc Malagasy would have depreciated considerably given the extent and duration of the political and economic crisis. It is feared that when the central bank restarts foreign currency trading, there will be a serious devaluation. The suspension of activities of the central bank has also led to a halt in the sale and redemption of treasury bonds, which has led to short term funding problems for the Antananarivo-based government. However the US has this week recognised Ravalomanana as the legitimate president, so this may contribute to the resolution of the situation.
FALSE ALARM AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE
Staff at the Fed headquarters in Washington received something of a fright when they were cleared out of their offices after "suspicious items" were spotted lurking in a rubbish bin by security on a routine patrol. The worst was suspected: to avoid macabre recriminations, it was declared a bomb and the buildings - which house 1,300 employees - were evacuated on 19 June. Indisposed to alarming the markets, the Fed issued a statement saying that all services including payment systems would continue just as usual, and calm was restored when it was announced that it was a false alarm. Since September 11 the Fed has stepped up security measures and this is not the first scare. In May the Fed thought it had found traces of Anthrax on its post, although it was later found that this was not the case. But this has obviously had repercussions on the efficiency of its postal service, as certain parcels seem not to have been getting through - various copies of Central Banking have mysteriously gone missing, and we can only attribute this to a rather overzealous post monitor.
ELECTIONEERING
Papua New Guinea's former central bank governor, Sir Mekere Morauta, who since became prime minister in 1999, has succeeded in keeping his seat in parliament in the wake of an election tainted by deaths, violence, stolen ballot boxes, multiple voting and incomplete electoral rolls. The future of his government remains unsure, and as Morauta admits, "This is my first hurdle, the next hurdle is to form the government." Morauta, a reformist who has pursued a programme of privatisation and cost-cutting, concedes that much remains for him to do: "In the next five years the important job for the nation, and which I face, is to go ahead with the reforms I have begun." With support from the IMF and the World Bank he has set his heart on wiping out Papua New Guinea's endemic political corruption. But voting remains to be completed, and should he succeed he still faces the challenge of seeing out the full five-year term which no government since independence in 1975 has yet managed to do.
FREE SPEECH FOR CENTRAL BANKERS!
Once again wrangles between politicians and central bankers have had unfortunate consequences as Raymond Garneau, who sits on the board of directors at the Bank of Canada, publicly called for prime minister Jean Chrétien to resign. This outburst was not entirely appreciated by the government authorities, who awarded his recalcitrance with the honour of not being reappointed to the board. [appointments and renewals are made by the Minister of Finance with the approval of the Governor in Council (the federal government).] A former Quebec Liberal finance minister, Garneau told a local paper that, now that finance minister Paul Martin has been ousted, Chrétien's resignation would allow the Liberal party to revivify.
A senior official in the government explained that Garneau's comments were a factor in the decision not to reappoint him, although he had already served two three-year terms: "We don't usually appoint people to a third term, and if you are going to go through the hoops for a third term, you'd better have a pretty special reason. Taking a run at the prime minister is not a special reason." But Garneau showed contempt for the notion that his role at the bank meant he was effectively gagged when it came to speaking out on politics, and instead extolled the virtues of free speech: "If we have a society where we can't express our views, then I don't like it."
TRAINING/SEMINARS FOR CENTRAL BANK SPECIALISTS
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14 June 2002
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By Benedict Mander
Central Banking Publications
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FOOTBALL FRENZY
It can hardly have escaped anybody's notice that the world is under the spell of World Cup frenzy, and central banks are no exception. Even the Bank of Japan's governor, Masaru Hayami, seems to have been infected by this virus. He is generally typecast as a temperate fellow, but he succumbed to the popular fever when he curtailed a news conference to watch the Japan-Tunisia game. He selflessly reassured his audience, "I don't want you journalists to miss this important moment when the entire country is on the alert. I'll make sure my answers to your questions are brief so that you don't have to stay here longer than necessary."
As for the rest of the employees at the BOJ, they are fortunate enough to be able to watch the games outside working hours, as many of the games are being held in their country. Perhaps for that reason, the BOJ has organised nothing special, and I am assured it is "business as usual". However after work is done, everyone in the bank piles into the lounge in the hope of securing a decent view of the televisions there.
In Europe, central bankers are less fortunate as the games are shown at deeply unsocial hours. Some central banks like the ECB, the Bank of England and the Central Bank of Ireland have strategically positioned televisions around their buildings to allow employees to follow the games. In the BOE, there is a screen in the canteen which is turned on for all England and Ireland matches, and employees have arrived uncommonly early to watch matches. However the flexible working hours at the BOE meant it took the historic Argentina game that brought the whole of the country to a standstill comfortably in its stride, and lunch breaks of up to two hours are quite acceptable. One or two were gone a little longer though, I hear...
For Irish fans, the Central Bank of Ireland has also installed two large screens in its staff canteen and in true patriotic spirit has been good enough to provide free lunch to staff who watched the matches there. "The atmosphere is great," says one who was present. Apparently the shouting and cheering could be heard from the street outside and is thought to be the first time ever that such a clamour erupted from the central bank.
YELLOW CARD FOR DUISENBERG
Wim Duisenberg risked having America turn its nose up at him when the furore over his wife Gretta's decision to decorate their home with a Palestinian flag reached breaking point. In what has now become a major public embarrassment for the ECB president, when the World Jewish Congress threatened to declare him persona non grata in the United States he was eventually prompted to override what he insists is all his wife's doing and took down the flag six weeks after it was put out.
Members of the local Jewish community have also been militating against Mrs Duisenberg, and the orthodox Federation of Jews in the Netherlands has taken court action against her on charges of anti-Semitism, although she vehemently denies she is anti-Semitic, saying she simply opposes the Israeli government. This has done little to pacify her neighbours who are also up in arms as their children and grandchildren live in Israel. Although Mr Duisenberg has denied any part in the flag flying his neighbours have scoffed at the notion that he is not involved: "come off it, it's his home."
Rather more disturbingly, Mrs Duisenberg has received what she has described as a "horrible, terrible death threat" and has been under 24-hour police protection. Despite this she has declared, "I will never change my feelings about the situation in the Middle East. It is important that I continue my endeavours in support of the Palestinian people. I am sorry I can say no more, but in view of the death threat the police have told me not to give any more interviews."
Mrs Duisenberg has gone off on holiday to the South of France, but the flag is reputed to be flying still, albeit in a different place. A local newspaper alleges that it had been passed on to another family who are flying it from their houseboat. Intriguingly, Dokkumer Vlaggencentrale, the Netherlands' biggest flag manufacturer, reports increased demand for Palestinian flags since Mrs Duisenberg's show of solidarity for their cause.
IMF RAPS CENTRAL BANKS'AUDITS
Since its problems with the National Bank of Ukraine in 1998, the International Monetary Fund has been making an effort to keep tabs on where its loan dollars end up once disbursed to central banks. As part of this "safeguards assessment process" Fund staff have been checking how well central banks keep their books.
The Fund assessed 50 central banks. 67% were found to have "non-existent or deficient external audit". 41% were guilty of "no, or delayed, publication of financial statements". Alarmed, Fund staff visited a smaller number of central banks in person. This closer inspection revealed 88% using "inadequate accounting standards" and 88% having "deficient internal audit". It sounds bad, but what does it all mean? The report spells out instances of the following malpractices:
"Concurrence by auditors with dubious accounting practices by the central bank... Non-financial audits conducted by the Auditor General or equivalent (focus on operational issues such as cafeteria usage)... Delays of at least a year in publication of the full financial statements... Over reliance on Governor for decision-making and oversight of operational transactions... Absence of an audit committee or an equivalent oversight body... Quasi-fiscal activities expensed by the central bank, including construction costs for government buildings, purchase of computer system for government, purchase of vehicles for outside agencies, inappropriate payments to national sports champions."
On the plus side the report reveals much positive effort going to fix all this. Nevertheless Newsmakers awaits the next central banker's speech on the importance of good corporate governance with measured scepticism. ["Safeguards Assessments - Review of Experience and Next Steps": http://www.imf.org/External/NP/tre/safegrds/2002/review.pdf]
TRICHET BACK IN PLAY
Jean Claude Trichet will not have been the only person in France to wipe the sweat off his brow when he heard that he was off the hook over the Credit Lyonnais affair. This was an acutely embarrassing incident for France, sullying the good name of its most able central banker, and had potentially grave repercussions: Trichet may have been debarred from succeeding Wim Duisenberg at the ECB, which it is widely anticipated he will do.
Trichet was put under investigation two years ago for his hand in the collapse of Credit Lyonnais as he was at the treasury and responsible for overseeing the bank at the time. Ever since, this has been lurking uncomfortably in the wings just waiting to step out and down Trichet, and what's more, deprive the country of its prime candidate for taking on Europe's top job in monetary policy. But happily, state prosecutor Jean-Pierre Dintilhac decided that Trichet's hands were clean, and announced that the charges should be waived. His decision still needs rubber-stamping by a magistrate, but this is expected to be a mere formality.
ARGENTINA - TIME FOR A SUBSTITUTION?
Neither the Argentine nor the international press has tired of predicting central bank president Mario Blejer's "imminent" resignation. Perhaps in a bid to give them something to chew over, a central bank spokeswoman admitted that he is considering resigning, with the caveat that this would not be before he had designed a new monetary programme, implemented a plan to convert deposits into bonds and helped obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund. He won't be leaving for a while then? [Randy's Note: "That's a good one, Mander!"]
The spokeswoman did make it clear that Blejer had not presented his resignation or set a fixed date to resign. Blejer himself has been quoted as saying, "I agreed to stay and help in the negotiations [with the IMF] and prepare a new monetary programme. If I cannot reach the conclusion that the monetary programme can be sustainable and lead to some degree of stability then I won't stay." Defending his performance at the central bank, Blejer said in exasperation, "Look, we have had a run on deposits going on for 14 months. It's very difficult to conduct monetary policy when people don't have any confidence in either the banks or the peso."
Such an outburst might have lent credence to local Radio Mitre's dubious allegation that Blejer would leave his post on June 30, citing unidentified government officials, if it were not for the central bank's clarification. Others say Blejer told President Eduardo Duhalde two weeks ago he wanted to resign. According to one government official, Blejer and Duhalde "have a very good relationship, but (Blejer) advised that we should start thinking of a replacement." It is rumoured that Blejer pines to return to Washington D.C., where his wife lives.
Meanwhile, former finance minister and darling of the financial markets, Domingo Cavallo, has been released from confinement at the military base outside Buenos Aires, where he spent 65 days, with no charges levelled against him, but still dare not walk the streets of Buenos Aires.
REDDY, STEADY, GO
There is stiff competition to take the place of the outgoing distinguished deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Yaga Reddy. Two senior bureaucrats are jockeying to control this key post that involves responsibility for monetary policy and internal debt management. V. Govindrajan, secretary at the Department of Company Affairs, and Adarsh Kishore, additional secretary at the Ministry of Finance, are in the running to replace Reddy.
Now that he is 61, Reddy will leave the bank on August 1 to become India's executive director at the International Monetary Fund, where he will remain for the next three years. He has been deputy governor at the RBI since 1996, where he has overseen monetary policy, economic analysis and policy, and external investments among other portfolios. Of the four governors at the RBI (one governor and three deputies), one must be a career civil servant, another a commercial banker, and a third a central banker. Reddy was the career bureaucrat, hence the need for bureaucrats to replace him.
LARS "THE HAWK" HEIKENSTEN
Lars Heikensten is to succeed Urban Backstrom as governor of the [Swedish] Riksbank. He has been the bank's deputy governor since 1995, and as such indicates the bank's willingness to continue its current strategy in the face of a probable euro referendum next year. Known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy, he is to take over at the beginning of next year for a term of six years.
RETICENT YAM
Joseph Yam, the governor of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, when introducing Stanley Fischer, formerly of the IMF, asked what happens to central bankers when they are no longer central bankers? Is there life after central banking? He admitted that it was a subject of "intense personal interest". The recent resignation of Don Brash at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left Yam with the "doubtful distinction" of being the longest-serving central bank chief in the region, as he has been governor since 1993. He did stress, however, that he had no intention of following in Brash's footsteps: politics is not his thing.
Yam seemed oddly reluctant to discuss Fischer's new job, although he felt comfortable enough saying that he had become vice-chairman of one of the world's largest banking and finance groups. Then the reasons for his reticence became clear: the HKMA just so happens to be a tenant in the building of the same name. He confessed, "To avoid giving the impression that the HKMA is a subsidiary of that bank, we have always tried to pretend that the building is called something else, by refraining from mentioning the name on our stationery, or to deliverymen or taxi-drivers, or to anyone else." The institution in question is Citigroup, a band that likes to give the impression it owns the world.
SLOVENIAN HOPEFUL
Following Don Brash's foray into the political arena, yet another central banker hopes to turn his hand to politics. Slovenia's former central bank governor, France Arhar, is to stand as an independent candidate in presidential elections later this year after current president Milan Kucan's second term expires. Arhar, who is 54 and currently head of state insurer Vzajemna, piloted the central bank for a full decade from its inauguration in 1991. He used this to his advantage when announcing his candidacy, boasting that he had been instrumental in creating the economic stability that Slovenians enjoyed today. And he is in with a chance: opinion polls have ranked him as a frontrunner to win the election, which will take place at some point in October or November. Arhar's biggest rival is the current prime minister, Janez Drnovsek, but he has been troubled by poor health and has not yet officially declared his candidacy.
NEW KAZAKH DEPUTY CHAIRMAN
A new deputy chairman is livening things up at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. On the recommendation of the central bank, Anvar Saydenov was entrusted with the position by Kazakhstan's president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has a broad range of experience, and comes fresh from the People's Bank of Kazakhstan where he was chairman of the board of directors. Born in Moscow 41 years ago, he graduated from the Mikhail Lomonosov Moscow State University, going on to do a master's degree in financial economics at London University. He worked as a special officer at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London in 1995-96. He was executive director of the Kazakh state committee for investment and has also dabbled in politics when he was a deputy finance minister. Saydenov, who is 41, is now responsible for banking and insurance control at the central bank, as well as coordinating the securities market and the activities of pension funds.
© Copyright 2002 Central Banking Publications. All rights reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD by permission.
Benedict
Mander
Email: bmander@centralbanking.co.uk
Central Banking Publications Ltd
6 Langley Street, London WC2H 9JA, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 3625
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