@Mikal

Good words to heed during the passage of life.

If I may add:

There are few hard, fast rules. Mainly frequent, loose bending.

Cynicism is often the result of savvy.

Unsubstantiated generalizations should be restricted to confirmed facts.

Broad stereotypes can be considered to be widely held false beliefs.

Presumtuous abstractions - boldfaced deceptions.

Sir Powell I hope we may meet and greet in Vancouver at the upcoming “Golden Event”

mikal (usagold.com 06January2009; 18:16)
Beware

Beware of hard and fast rules, cynicism, unsubstantiated generalizations, broad stereotypes, presumptuous abstractions…

MK: Inspired, mikal. The road to wisdom is hard won and doesn’t always square with that which is popularly conceived.

Gold choppy in consolidative trade

The COMEX February gold futures contract closed up $8.20 Tuesday at $866.00, trading between $838.80 and $871.00

January 6, p.m. excerpts:
(from MarketWatch, Bloomberg & DowJones) — Gold futures ended higher Tuesday for the first day in three as the U.S. dollar declined against a basket of other major currencies.

Geopolitical tensions raised by the Israel-Hamas fighting and newly released gloomy economic reports also helped gold move higher. Fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian gunmen continued Tuesday, as the International Red Cross said that the Gaza Strip faces a “full-blown humanitarian crisis,” the BBC reported.

“Gold should remain well bid given the degree of international macroeconomic and geopolitical risk challenging us,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director at Gold and Silver Investments. Some investors buy gold as a safe-haven against economic downturn and political uncertainty.

Gold futures for February delivery rose $8.20, or 1 percent, to $866 on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, after earlier touching $838.80, the lowest in more than a week. Gold rose, erasing earlier losses, on speculation that the dollar’s rally will stall, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

“Gold turned when the dollar started to weaken,” said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. “The additional amount of money that’s sloshing around the financial system will weaken the dollar.”

The U.S. government has pledged more than $8.5 trillion as of Nov. 25 to bail out financial companies and help the country recover from a recession. A Democratic aide said President-elect Barack Obama favors a $775 billion stimulus package to revive the economy.

Tuesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve said members of the Federal Open Market Committee saw increasing risks of depression and deflation at their mid-December meeting, according to truncated minutes of the meeting. Some participants at the meeting saw “the distinct possibility of a prolonged contraction, although that was not judged to be the most likely outcome,” the minutes said.

“This is an impressive rally considering how low we came in this morning,” said Willie Gato, broker with BCT Trading on the Comex floor. Gold and silver futures snapped back from sharp early losses to finish higher Tuesday as support held at a key moving average, the U.S. dollar gave up some of its initial strength and traders continued to eye developments in the Middle East.

“Obviously, it’s the dollar to a large degree,” said Tom Pawlicki, analyst with MF Global.

But while the U.S. currency was still stronger as the metals closed, it nevertheless pared its gains, and that allowed gold and silver to snap back, said Rob Kurzatkowski, futures analyst with optionsXpress. “The dollar is pulling back from its intra-day highs,” Kurzatkowski said.

Gato pointed out that gold rallied after holding support at $838.80, which was right around the 20- and 21-day moving averages early in the day. The rise accelerated late in the session after participants were quietly buying all day, especially after the market got back above the $845 area, Gato said.

“People are realizing this was a good place to buy,” he said of the support in the $838 region.

“People started reacting to the Middle East and buying slowly. And after a while, guys came in and bought chunks, and it really moved.”

Pawlicki commented that some of the initial pressure also may have been due to worries about demand, especially from emerging markets such as India and Turkey. Import data from these nations lately have been “disappointing,” Pawlicki said.

“But the late-day buying may actually set up a bullish pattern on a daily chart and suggest we may be forming a near-term base around the $840 to $850 area,” Kurzatkowski said.

see full news, 24-hr newswire…

Beware of hard and fast rules, cynicism, unsubstantiated generalizations, broad stereotypes, presumptuous abstractions…

Their big interest is defending their currencies and bonds against the metal.

http://www.gata.org/node/7066

By the way, I think SteveH below has it exactly right.

Hello out there in the real world of gold analysis.

First we have heavyweight giants of finance predicting this price or that trend in gold. Then we have the lightweights (present company included) betting that gold can only go up because everything else is going down and a dozen other very good reasons (none of which have ever come to pass — mind you). Yet, the reality of prognosis is a fruitless exercise unless one simply factors in the role that Central Banks and their cohort agent banks play in the gold markets. The international gold market is simply NOT a free market. No way, no how.

Thus, if one accepts that premise: that the international gold market is simply NOT a free market, then any time one reads, hears, gets wind of a gold market analysis or prediction, repeat after me: the international gold market is simply NOT a free market. Then ask yourself, does the analyist make the prediction or comment subscribe to gold being a free market or a controlled market. If they are making a prediction without mentioning that the “international gold market is simply NOT a free market…” then the merit of their prediction or analysis only weighs in as good as their insider knowledge of those behind the pricing influence of gold. In other words, it is simply worth “less” or points to their role in the controlled market place that gold has become.

In either case, we must now break down the gold prognosticators into two camps: those who know it is being controlled and those who believe it is a free market. Simply toss any opinion that pretends gold is freely traded. That leaves only analysis from those who know it is being controlled. Now we need to determine to what extent they know it is being controlled and how they know it. Take for example a prediction by a bullion bank working behind the scenes for the Fed. Such an analysis is coming straight from the mouth of a gold “controllee.” Any credence put to such an analysis must ascertain the motive behind said analysis (before one could benefit from it). In most cases, such an analysis would be a counter-indicator of gold. If they said gold is going to go up, it will go down, etc. Now, take a prediction or analysis of gold from GATA, such a prediction would be a good indicator of gold’s long term potential price movement but may not have positive short-term relevance due to the outsider nature of said analysis. So here are three rules for all gold analysis and predictions:

Source Action
Gold Insider Believe the opposite
Gold outsider Believe long term, disregard short term
Gold Freemarketer Disregard

Optional Rule:
Government Source Roll your eyes back in disbelief and ignore.

From the above action chart, we can see that the best short term trend to monitor is any analysis from the FED or Bullion bank whereby we take whatever it is that they say, and believe the opposite as being the most likely best predictor of gold and its future.

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Gold sales by funds tracking commodity indexes may reach $877 million this month, reflecting annual re- weightings in benchmarks, JPMorgan Securities Ltd. said.

The Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index may reduce the proportion of gold to 7.9 percent from 10.8 percent and the S&P GSCI Commodity Index may lower the weight to 3.2 percent from 3.5 percent, JPMorgan said in a Jan. 2 report…

“Gold has sold off quite sharply in the past twenty-four hours,” U.S. economist Dennis Gartman wrote in his daily Gartman Letter today. Index holding reductions “mandates sizeable liquidation in gold that may last a day or two more.”

The re-weighting of the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Indexes will run Jan. 9 to 15, Dow Jones Indexes spokeswoman Andrea Weidemann said.

The S&P GSCI commodity index will rebalance Jan. 8 to 14.

^_(from hyperlink)_^

While the wayward pricing effects of gold derivatives remain an ever-present wildcard, all other things being equal, this bit of index re-weighting poses a short-term gift to all would-be gold owners and accumulators.

Better still would be a reduction of the gold component in these indices to ZERO. That would give gold an extra degree of freedom within the financial universe to behave as only gold alone can and should behave — with ultimate freedom to be physically acquired or liquidated on its own merits as inspired by its present owners’ assessment of their individual positions in a multi-variant world.

That is to say, the more artificial strings that are tied to gold, the more its true value is hindered in its ability to be the most accurate and freely liquid barometer of the world’s complex financial climate.

But even as it is, with strings and warts and all, it’s still the best thing going in that regard, and it’s slowly but surely getting better.

R.

excerpts
January 5, 2009 (Barron’s) — Byron Wein of Pequot Capital Management, … is calling for a 33% jump from the S&P’s 2008 close, which would carry the index to the 1200-point territory, which — granted — only gets us back to where the market stood in late September, when the S&P got launched on a downleg that obliterated one-third of its value in a span of two months.

One caveat: the economic recovery that would underpin the rally is back-end loaded for the year, not evidencing itself until the second half.

Among his other forecasts:

– Gold goes to $1200 an ounce on strong buying by Middle Eastern investors fed up with paper currency.

– The U.S. dollar goes on a ‘’serious downward spiral” fueled by huge borrowing on the part of the Treasury.

– Oil prices return to about $80 a barrel for crude.

– The 10-year Treasury yield reachs 4%, as economic worries about inflation give way to concerns about inflation.

– The state of New York, starved of tax revenue from the financial services industry, threatens bankruptcy.

^_(from hyperlink)_^

Government programs being what they are, as our currency begins to be perceived more and more like the play money included in a game of Monopoly, an investor’s simpleminded pursuit of ‘higher prices’ will begin to take a back seat to a more profound pursuit of value itself. It behooves you to get yours today — and cheaply — while supplies are still somewhat adequately available.

R.

Welcome to ‘09 fellow metal Squirrels.
De power of Gold and Silver was on display today as it would appear getting the last drops of metallic blood from Comex is popping both Au and Ag in NY …and in so doing, having a negatory affect on DX.

Heap strong paper that metal-paper …good for startum imferno, but still burn like rest in the end!

IMO and experience, the only time I pay attention to the PAPER price of gold is when I’m buying. Any other time I could care less. The only reason to be worried about the price is if you’re going to sell…..why the heck would you do that!?!

The one basic error all these commentators make (IMHO of course) is that they persist with “dollar-minded myopia”. It simply defies logic to “measure” one “money” (Paper Currency) in terms of “Another” (Gold).

As Prechter implies, $200 PoG is certainly doable from here (in terms of PaperGold) but I fear neither he nor any of the growing army of so-called deflationists differentiate sufficiently between the the two “opposing options”.

The nature of the game is to constantly maintain a mental separation of Paper and Metal …and let “pricing” go where-so-ever it will.

“Treasurys are overbought and perhaps in a bubble,” said Kim Rupert, fixed income analyst with Action Economics. “When the mood changes, it will be a case of everybody out the door at the same time.”

Rupert said a mass exodus from the bond market would be troubling for investors. As the value of their assets decline, they will have difficulty selling them off.

“The market will just explode, and you can just hope that you get out in time,” she added.

Other analysts agree, saying growing government debt levels amid increasing appetite for risk could spell trouble for the bond market.

Cytek

This will be the final shoe to drop! Once the bonds crash along with all stocks there will be no place to go. Kim Rupert says “just hope that you get out in time” but doesn’t give you any option to were to put it.
We at USAGOLD know the only option that works. GOLD.

Waiting by the exits

This is the daily commentary from Rick Ackerman’s website:

Prechter Sizes Up
Gold in Deflation
For edition of January 06, 2009

With the global economy caught in a deflationary vise, I queried Bob Prechter recently about gold’s prospects. He is the right guy to ask for two reasons. First, his 2002 book At the Crest of the Tidal Wave established him as the foremost expert in the world on the subject of deflation. And second, as someone who has been relative tepid toward gold, perhaps he can explain why bullion quotes have not been hitting new highs even though fiscal and monetary policy in the U.S. and elsewhere have turned recklessly expansive.

Below is my letter to him, followed by his response:

“I am writing to ask your opinion about a key question that divides inflationists and deflationists. To wit: If we are indeed headed into a deflationary depression, why has gold quadrupled off its lows, and why does it look like it’s consolidating for a push above $1000?

“I am a deflationist myself — a hard-core one, in part because of your pellucid writing on the topic in At the Crest. Other books that influenced me were C.V. Meyers’ The Coming Deflation (1977) and Davidson & Rees-Mogg’s The Great Reckoning (early1990s). I have written myself on the topic (and inevitability) of deflation in Barron’s, as well as in the column I freelanced for several years to the San Francisco Examiner in the late 1990s. I continue to write regularly about the tightening deflationary noose in my daily newsletter, Rick’s Picks, and I see the economy as headed into a morass even deeper than the one the nation experienced in the 1930s.

‘Puny’ $8.5 Trillion

“I have been arguing that the so-far $8.5 trillion bailout is a puny number compared to the deflationary implosion of a credit edifice with a notional value in the hundreds of trillions of dollars. I also bring money velocity into the argument, since, as long as velocity is falling (for reasons related to mass psychology), the supposedly high-powered monetary base is just “dead” money that will go unmultiplied.

“In dismissing the arguments of inflationists, I like to say, ‘Wake me when I can sell my home for a quadrillion dollars.’ I toss out their useless money supply metrics and focus on deflation’s most pernicious symptom: an increase in the real burden of debt; for, as long as debt is becoming more burdensome, we are experiencing a deflation that everyone can recognize. Also, although I see a hyperinflation somewhere down the road via the mechanism of the Treasurys market, I don’t think it will come soon enough to bail out debtors. Piecemeal bailouts will not trigger hyperinflation, in my estimation; rather, it will require a deliberate decision by the government to hyperinflate by assuming, and then discharging, all debts, public and private.

Gold Will Outperform

“But what about gold? I ask because you are famously bearish on the stuff, and because you have written so cogently about deflation. Many of my subscribers are gold bugs, and I told them that I would query you about the seeming anomaly of $900 gold in the midst of a deflationary collapse. I have also told them that even if Gold prices are about to plunge, Gold is likely to outperform all other classes of investables.”

Bob’s reply:

“Your own arguments are excellent. A few other remarks:

“I should not be famously bearish on gold. I have said that gold will do better than most commodities but not as well as cash. I also have said, own some gold anyway. The bear part comes in because I have left open the possibility that it can still get to $200/oz. No one else thinks it’s possible. But we have also said all along that once its fifth wave ended oil would fall back to $10. Isn’t it interesting that no one argues for oil, platinum, silver, etc? It’s because gold is the only thing that didn’t crash. But to repeat, this is exactly how I have expected gold to behave on a relative basis. It’s not making anyone rich.

“You don’t have to answer why gold quadrupled off its lows. That happened in the wave 5 commodity boom during the wave b credit inflation. A better question is why gold did so poorly relative to most other commodities, which went up way more (14 times in oil for instance). Another question is why silver lagged its 1980 so badly. The inflationists can’t answer these questions except to keep insisting that $200 silver is coming.

“Another question is how come gold is unchanged after 29 years of inflation?” [Signed, Bob]

Sir Topaz, Happy New Year to you.

Gold is known for being a soft, malleable metal.

Looks like the price will be such - for a while. Gold will not be allowed up for a breath while bondo is swimming under water.

Nice to see the bondos dropping but I am always suspicious of being bluffed.

I shall wear 4 sets of glasses - one for each side of my bony head - and watch them closely. Straight down for bondo is not likely IMHO.

mikal thanks for the Buiter link. He offers exceptional US economic insight from a classic European perspective.

The full article (Can the US economy afford a Keynesian stimulus?) is incredibly long with the quote “There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets”, 16 paragraphs into the dissertation.

The significance in this statement (and others if you care to search them out) being that unlike Roubini Mr. Buiter cannot be portrayed as the continual alarmist.

U.S. considers costly switch to international accounting rules
Usatoday.com
Jan 05 09

There is only one alternative to the dollar
FT.com / Comment / Opinion
JAN 06, 2009

Gold May Advance For Eighth Year As ‘Perfect Insurance’ Sought
Bloomberg - 06 JAN 09
Link to story

Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse - Telegraph
05 January 09

Treasury’s Paulson Gets It Wrong
A global savings glut did not cause our problems
By Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein - Forbes
January 6, 2009

This little dead canary has been trying to imply a move to a “brighter” future - as we see some sort of pulse apparent in light New Year trading. Flapping mechanically as if there is a genuine life force within …poor little zombie imp!

9 days “off the grid”, back and ready for whatever it is “09 has to offer, Lets see?
The Bond coming off it’s highs bears watching here as this “trickle” could turn to a “torrent” any old tick. How so Bucko and PoG in the event of a Bond sell-down?
Gold “should” be back in sync with Bond here (giving it up) …but overshooting the Dec deliveries is keeping a bit of wind beneath both Au AND Ag’s wings here IMHO…

Buck is a 90DX if Bond goes to 120 I’d reckon.

What more can be done to end the price suppression scheme?

http://www.gata.org/node/7060

As i’m sure you’ve read the states now want a trillion, on top of Obamas opening federal volley. Does anyone else find this surreal? It’s as if we’re in a nightmare, in which we know what’s about to happen, but can’t talk and everyone around us is oblivious to the evil.

I find myself considering the verses found in Luke 20 regarding “render therefore unto Caesar the things that are Caesars, and unto God the things that are Gods”. Please indulge me as I know I tread dangerously between faith, government, and tribute, but I think the point applies to this forum which questions government regularly.

Without going into the spiritual, Christ answered the bait essentially: You recognize Caesar’s civil authority when you use his coins, therefore you are obliged to ‘render’ (which means ‘give back’) through the taxes he asks for…CAVEAT…as long as it does not infringe on obedience to God. As Jesus held the coin with Caesars image, it lay on the very hand that would be pierced by that government (He well understood what He was saying).

Are believers to submit to the point of piercing… physical or financial? No, Christ was on a mission in which government persecution was His tool. Believers are obliged to render lawfully so that their testimony is not so easily questioned. But an opposing view on testimony preservation is being forced into question.

Checking the government ledger, what have we actually received? Today’s horrific mismanagement of dutifully paid taxes, the enormous debt (illustrated through multi generational obligation), and the extenuating harm brought to bear on all who use Caesars coins certainly challenges ‘benefit’.

Forward to the point…are believers opening themselves to criticism from God Almighty through blind tribute to this corruption? When in this rendering obedience do we become accomplice in defiance of truth? At what point are we obligated to simply claim truth and hold back tribute? How many times before have good men questioned themselves over this same question? Was the Boston Tea Party adverse to God’s will?

And what ‘benefit’ will they think of next… ‘the mark’ which will make all things well again? In the meantime, are we one and all, believers and non believers, prepared to be judged as good men who did nothing? No I’m not about to revolt or go into drastic survival mode (yet!), but it is increasingly difficult to watch the future unfold in this manner.

(excerpts)
By David Hale
The Financial Times; January 5 2009 — The great challenge confronting the foreign exchange market at the start of 2009 is finding a good alternative to the US dollar. One of the ironies of market events during 2008 was that the US financial crisis produced a flight to safety in the dollar. The dollar emerged triumphant from a financial debacle that centred on $1,300 billion of subprime US mortgage loans. The fallout has triggered a $32,000 bn decline in global stock market capitalisation and driven all the Group of Seven leading industrialised countries into recession.

The dollar slumped against the euro during the final weeks of 2008 but fears about the financial system still drove US Treasury yields down to zero on three-month paper and less than 2.1 per cent on 10-year notes. This fear factor is likely to sustain demand for the dollar during the early months of 2009…

The US economy could be the first to emerge from recession this year because it appears to be headed for a far more aggressive macroeconomic stimulus programme than any other country. Barack Obama’s administration will announce a $700bn-$800bn multi-year fiscal package focusing on cuts in payroll taxes, aid to state and local governments and infrastructure investment. The Federal Reserve is also engaging in a programme of unprecedented monetary stimulus. It has slashed its core lending rate to zero and tripled the size of its balance sheet since August…

The risk posed by US policy comes from potential market concerns about monetary policy becoming inflationary. The current growth rate of the Fed’s balance sheet is totally unprecedented…

The European response to the recession has been far less aggressive. The European Central Bank is still under the influence of the Bundesbank and will ease monetary policy far more gradually than the Fed…

Australia announced a fiscal stimulus programme in October and Canada will announce a big fiscal package at the end of this month…

Foreign central banks could play an important role in the US government bond market because they already own about half of the existing debt stock. China recently displaced Japan to become the largest holder of US government securities because of its long-standing policy of intervening to manage its exchange rate against the US dollar policy…

Japan has not intervened since 2003 but, if the yen rallies another 5 per cent, the country could be forced to spend large sums restraining its currency. If it does, Japan could provide $200bn-$300bn of funding for the US deficit during 2009…

Conclusion

As a result of the global scope of the recession, there is no country that wants its exchange rate to appreciate. The clear alternative to the dollar in 2009 is not other currencies but that ancient form of money: gold. Precious metals could emerge as a hedge for investors suspicious of central banks and fearful that inflation will be the simplest solution to the challenge of global deleveraging.

^_(from hyperlink)_^

Isn’t it almost remarkable that we reached these exact conclusions several years ago, even doing so without the benefit of the current financial crisis as an impetus to focus our thought in this direction. The fact of the matter is that this trend has been a subtle but growing inevitability for decades, and the latest financial crisis is merely part of the changing scenery naturally expected and encountered in the course of our long-foreseen journey down this trail.

R.

Gold cheaper with stronger dollar

The COMEX February gold futures contract closed down $21.70 Monday at $857.80, trading between $843.50 and $885.50

January 5, p.m. excerpts:
(from MarketWatch, DowJones & Reuters) — Gold and silver futures fell sharply Monday on apparent profit-taking due primarily to the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar. Investors often buy gold as a hedge against dollar weakness and conversely sell gold during times of dollar strength. “People are looking at the dollar index,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock.

Gold for February delivery closed down $21.70, or 2.5%, at $857.80 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, ending below $860 an ounce for the first time since Dec. 25.

“Gold headed lower as the dollar surged,” said analysts at Action Economics. Greenback and gold prices tend to move in opposite directions.

The dollar rose against its major rivals to start the first full trading week of 2009, with the index up 1%. The greenback rose despite “the lack of an obvious trigger,” said Marc Chandler, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. The magnitude of the gain was unexpected, he said.

The dollar’s upward trend, however, could lose steam depending on Federal Reserve monetary policy, analysts said. The Fed has already lowered the benchmark rate to a range between 0.25% to zero percent. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said over the weekend that based on the outlook for rising unemployment, falling industrial production and a wider output gap, economic models suggest rates should be below zero, according to Reuters reports.

The dollar was “revved up” by anticipation of President-elect Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package, along with the Fed’s “explicit backing” of an all-out effort to revive the U.S. economy, said Kitco’s senior analyst, Jon Nadler.

Also, he said, the euro hit a three-week low against the dollar on perceptions that the European Central Bank is “far behind the curve” in cutting interest rates.

The U.S. currency extended gains against the euro to a fresh three-week high on Monday on hopes U.S. President-elect Barack Obama will unveil fresh measures to boost the economy. Obama officials have been discussing an economic stimulus bill in the range of $675 billion to $775 billion.

One of the factors that supported gold last week was the increased tensions in the Middle East following Israeli attacks on the Gaza. A ground assault began over the weekend. This supported oil Monday. But yellow gold didn’t follow black gold higher as metals traders turned their attention to the dollar’s surge, Haberkorn said.

Nadler noted that metals traders had already factored into prices the Israeli push in Gaza, so that safe-haven demand therefore abated. Still, Haberkorn said, the rise in crude helped February gold to trim its loss by $14.30 from its $843.50 low. The pullback in the metals was seen as a “buying opportunity,” Haberkorn added.

see full news, 24-hr newswire…

If comex “dirty tricks” as alleged on one prominent website is accurate, should we all not be thankful that this tactic of TPTB continues? Does it not offer us the continued opportunity to acquire desirable investments at bargain basement prices? If not, then who is fooling whom. Why force higher prices upon the little guy who is late to the acquisition game?

SNIP: “The government argued Madoff and his wife mailed valuables such as jewelry and watches to friends and family members, in violation of his bail terms.”

Seems to me that Madoff has more appreciation for physical then for digits on a ledger. In fact, the digits don’t mean much if you don’t have the physical to back it up. Now, I’m sure, Madoff is now of equal value with his ledger.

My fellow metal-heads, if judgment days exist - how will you defend yourself?

snip some samples almost as bright as their sundrenched snowpack.
From the Boris Sobolev link below:

“Gold bears tirelessly repeat that deflationary periods are characterized by heightened demand for cash. For the United States, this means a strong US dollar.”

Mikal- Already fading, late 2008’s emergency demand for greenbacks has slowed even though Japan’s minister just talked down the yen this weekend, putting a scare in some dollar bears.
This as incessant cries of crisis in Euroland are beginning to fall on deaf ears and the euro grows stronger against most currencies including the (U.S.) dollar.
And exporters here in the states have been repeatedly assured by analysts and officials that a weaker dollar will soon bring needed and scarce relief.
Technically, the dollar is less overbought than before but so overvalued and fundamentally vulnerable and decrepit that it almost makes Sobolev’s observations on dollar/gold denials and distortions an afterthought.

“Although the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold is true most of the time, there have been extended periods when both gold and USD appreciated in value. We only have to go back a few years to see a positive relationship between the two. Believe it or not, even in 2008, gold gained 5.8%, while the US Dollar Index gained 7.5%.”

And my favorite:
“Currency exchange rates during the period of competitive devaluation cannot have a meaningful effect on the behavior of gold. Excess supply of world fiat currencies will only move gold higher regardless of some currencies’ fluctuations in relation to other currencies.

Jan 3, 2009
Boris Sobolev
Denver, Colorado”

Short solid essay and nice chart explode one of the main myths still extant from the Juraissic period of gold:
Debunking The Gold Bears Main Argument
By Boris Sobolev
321gold.com - Jan 5 09

“…by the 1980s, the apparently legitimate market maker division of Madoff’s firm traded up to five percent of the total trades made on the New York Stock Exchange.[29] Madoff’s firm was “the first prominent practitioner”[34] of “paying for order flow”, in other words paying a broker to execute a customer’s order through Madoff, which has been called a “legal kickback”.[35] Using this method, the firm became the largest dealer in NYSE-listed stocks in the U.S., trading about 15% of transaction volume in these stocks.[36]…”

Just reading Wikis Madoff entry,holy Jesus I have a hard time to graps what this guy did!Whats also revealing is the protection he gets and got from the authorities,read also this.Now with the tight “physical protection” he gets,I’m even having a few evil thoughts.

The SEC will find it is better to look stupid than outright wicked-but I’m not going to buy the naivity story!

Ponzi hates Physical.

$ up,POG down,yawn…And I thought we have a new year,but this appears like just Another episode of Groundhog day …

But,2009 will be the final year of WAG 2,might be significant as we heard no blabber so far for a renewal…

And could the reduced sale numbers of 2008 whisper something? “Central bank gold sales totaled 357 tonnes in the year-ending Sept. ‘08 according to independent analysis from the World Gold Council (WGC) – just shy of $10 billion-worth.” (And what are 10billions in last years trillion packages anyway …).

What will the POG performance numbers be in Randys table in 2010? Will he have to make a double column,paper POG / physical POG

The first five trading days a fractal of the whole year,goes the rule - now how would you proceed if you had to manage perceptions?

Otoh,if the bond bubble would pop,does anyone think they would let Gold advance one single cent? More diverging …

Onward,to 2010 and 30′000, my fellow Goldmeisters !

that’s sobering…

thanks for the link.

+++++++

Because it is notoriously difficult for us mere mortals to implement a successful trading strategy that attempts to pinpoint entry and exit points with significantly more effectiveness than simply making random purchases throughout a secular bull trend, I tend to favor looking at the percent change in average daily prices from each year to the next rather than a year-on-year change from an arbitrary benchmark date (such as a first or last business day of the year.)

For your convenience, this table shows both; and while the arbitrary y-o-y change for the last trading day of the year was just 3.4%, this table shows that gold owners enjoyed an average strength for their metal throughout 2008 at prices 25.3% higher than the average price it would have cost them to obtain during the prior year (based on the London daily price fixings).

So, putting all extraordinary trading acumen aside, for yet another year gold has continued to be a very fine “no brainer” performer for the dart-throwing investor who makes his transactions randomly on wherewithal (be it a cash surplus or need) rather than on painstaking-yet-fallible technical analysis.

This performance feature (along with its indestructibility) is what makes gold globally the particular asset of choice for the masses. Make it part of your own recipe for living well.

R.

@Goldilocks

I wanted to take some coins over to EU last year, so I called my friendly local customs office

I was told something along the lines of:
- if there’s a denomination on the coins (like $50), that’s what counts towards the $10k limit
- if there isn’t, then it’s a commodity, and anything in excess of $2.5k must be reported (to the census bureau via a different and complicated form)

YMMV,
-g

Just passin’ along a fun tidbit. (Courtesy of Tom Dyson of the Daily Wealth Newsletter.)

“Gold doesn’t show up in airport security metal detectors. I’ve tested this with Gold coins before. But if your are traveling across the border with more than $10,000 worth of Gold or currency, you must declare it at the border. They’ll run your name and make sure you’re not a money launderer. That’s it.”

As an airline employee and ‘frequent’ traveler (ha)! I’ve run the gamut of “security” personnel. From the indifferent and sloppy to the officious, obsessive and a-little-too-tightly-wound, right through to the truly power-mad. And believe me, I know the rules.

I can tell you this; reason, judgement and common sense play virtually NO role once you are within the confines of a security or customs-checkpoint. If you are carrying something “unusual,” give yourself extra time, while a “superior” may be called to hem-and-haw and then decide to call yet another, “higher” authority…

I might run a little test of my own and I’ll let y’all know.

P.S. It doesn’t matter whether or not I am in uniform, sportin’ a badge or not, these folks hold the hoops through which we all must jump. Don’t take it personally.

News from http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc: Serving Gold Coin & Bullion Investors Since 1973
Open for business 6am to 6pm Mountain Time

Indian rupee may perk up after policy moves - 20:27 - Reuters [Perky policy- I like it. Now about that Indian GOLD…]

Rebound Wrinkle: Recession
20:25 The Wall Street Journal - US Business[It’s finally official- recession. Now can we have some current news?]

The Upside To A Down Economy: Cost To Build Branches Has Declined 20:09
The Credit Union Journal Online [We can use a few more of those in our towns can’t we? Heck, why not have Usagold apply for a charter? Gold cards YES!]

Treasury Firms Forecast First Loss Since ‘99; Kostam Sees `Massive� Supply
20:09 Bloomberg [Face to face with the jolly green giant]

Brown calls for Gaza cease-fire 20:05 UPI [How fast will oil go back to $100/barrel?]

Senior official seeks extra powers for ECB 19:49 FT.com [Can they go one better than omnipotent?]

Korea Development Bank Said to Plan Dollar, Samurai Bond Sales This Year 19:41 Bloomberg - Market [A trend among developing nations to keep a sharp eye out for.]

Can the US economy afford a Keynesian stimulus? 19:40 FT.com - Maverecon [YOU’RE asking ME? Better yet, what took you so long?]

Fed and ECB prepare to tackle deflation head-on 19:30 Yahoo!
[CB’s team up to cream the competition. Anyone know when the first half ends?]

Economy: Top priority 19:25
CNN.com International Edition[If at first you don’t succeed, bludgeon and bludgeon again]

Go to Newsfeed

Alan Ableson writes the first article in Barrons each week. He was the first one I saw who said last year “gold is going to 1000.” Sure enough….

From the actual article:

ONE SIGN OF TROUBLE FOR TREASURIES is the resilient price of gold, which has risen $150 an ounce since late October, to $880 an ounce, despite weakness in most commodity prices. Investors rightly see gold as an appealing alternative to low-yielding Treasuries and virtually nonexistent yields on short-term debt as the government cranks up its printing presses. Gold was up $45 an ounce last year, while oil was down 50%.

-g

PS The link will most likely not work when a new issue’s out…

January 4, 2009
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0432990620090104?rpc=401&

Previous message typo, Ketete should be Fekete

Antal Kekete wrote a revealing piece about Barrick that covers the major facts and theories. Munk and co. are probably anticipating and trying to distance themselves from a gold revolution that will expose two decades of manipulation in which Barrick was a main actor.

From the Washington Post…….

U.S. Debt Expected To Soar This Year
$2 Trillion Increase May Test Federal Ability to Borrow

For now, investors are frantically stuffing money into the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury, which has come to serve as the world’s mattress in troubled times. Interest rates on Treasury bills have plummeted to historic lows, with some short-term investors literally giving the government money for free.

But about 40 percent of the debt held by private investors will mature in a year or less, according to Treasury officials. When those loans come due, the Treasury will have to borrow more money to repay them, even as it launches perhaps the most aggressive expansion of U.S. debt in modern history.

With the government planning to roll over its short-term loans into more stable, long-term securities, experts say investors are likely to demand a greater return on their money, saddling taxpayers with huge new interest payments for years to come. Some analysts also worry that foreign investors, the largest U.S. creditors, may prove unable to absorb the skyrocketing debt, undermining confidence in the United States as the bedrock of the global financial system.

(continues….)

Whoa……

What if you threw an auction and nobody showed up? We may soon find out.

PA

Gold bullion best asset bar none - Scotsman.com Business
04 January 2008

@ Shiva,

You might start with the forum archives. A lot was posted about their involvement in gold price suppression. Especially Blanchard vs. Barrick

GATA’s archives are also likely to be rich with this info.

@Goldilox

Can you direct me to good references/books about the history of Barrick Gold Corp/American Barrick?

I recall reading that this company was formed by lawyers and Wall Street types specifically to control and manipulate the gold market.

I wish to learn more about this beast.

Preditions

typo or Freudian slop?

@ mikal,

Just think how much more weight Mr. Munk’s words might have wielded had Barrack not been so deeply mired in suppressing gold themselves.

By Peter Schiff - http://www.24hgold.com/news…