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USAGOLD Weekly is published by USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, Inc
Serving gold investors since 1973

January 24, 2005
"As 2004 fades into memory many wait on the edge of their seats for that huge [stock market] rally. We already had it folks! A passing familiarity with 2004 suggests that the period from late October provided us with a powerful, return-saving surge. This updraft was born of roller coaster crude, falling dollars and the rising Republican electoral tide. It was fed by the needs of professionals to return on assets, almanac inspired confusion between correlations, and causations and delusions of success." Max Fraad Wolff

 

Central Banks Flee Dollar
Trend likely to undermine dollar says Financial Times...More

Gold, Oil Up Sharply
Crude , yellow mount key end of week rallies. . . . . More


Related:
Funds' return spurs Friday rally
(Dow Jones)
Merrill Lynch says gold could go to $480 (Business Day)
Gold cycle signals to watch (theBullionDesk)
Top traders forecast 2005 gold price (The Alchemist)

Weekly Review: Gold meandered most of the week in the $422-425 range and then broke convincingly to the upside Friday on fund buying. The strong surge in oil prices also affected buyer sentiment. Friday's near $427 close was the highest since early January. Continued discussion on a potential revaluation of IMF gold holdings in order to aid debtor nations had little effect on this week's action. Market reports also cited the "ongoing, extremely strong level of physical demand from Asia and the Middle East."

Warren Buffett sees no way but down for US dollar

Agence France Presse - The dollar cannot avoid further declines against other major currencies unless the US trade and current account deficits improve, legendary investor and businessman Warren Buffett said. "I think, over time, unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don't see how the dollar avoids going down," the world's second-richest individual told CNBC television. "I don't know when it happens. I don't have any idea whether it will be this month or this year or next year, but we are force-feeding dollars on to the rest of the world at the rate of close to a couple billion dollars a day, and that's going to weigh on the dollar."

Complete article


Commodity Strategist: Pension Funds May Invest in Commodities

Bloomberg - Pension funds with $25 trillion under management will invest more in commodities as a falling dollar and China's growing economy boost demand for raw materials, Tudor Investment Corp. strategist Steve Mathews said. "The thinking in commodity markets is that these people have long-term horizons and won't leave the market as quickly as some other traders might,'' Mathews, who manages commodity investments for the Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund, said yesterday in an interview. "It could drive up prices.'' U.S. retirement funds have as much as $40 billion invested in commodities, from oil to copper to soybeans, Mathews said Jan. 18 in a New York presentation to the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events, a group of Wall Street analysts who study price patterns. Commodity investment "could increase quite a bit, and it looks like it will,'' he said. . . The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which tracks 24 raw materials, rose 17 percent last year, the third straight annual gain. Crude oil jumped 34 percent, reaching a record $55.67 a barrel, and copper rose 39 percent, touching a 15-year high.

Compete article

Back to the Future: The 1970s

The Aden Sisters/321Gold - Gold's bull market is alive and well since reaching a 16 year high in early December at $456. And the decline we've seen since then is normal.Gold's 16 year high last month reinforced that the current bull market has now clearly outperformed the bull markets in the 1980s and 1990s in both time and price gains. This confirms the current bull market has now been the strongest since the 1970s and it could be similar, eventually reaching $800 or more. It's not really surprising when you see the similarities compared to the 1970s. The most obvious is the high oil price. It rose over 400% in 1971-1974, which is about the same as the 400% rise oil has had in the last six years. The budget deficits and an extremely loose monetary policy are also similar, as are the costs to finance an expensive war.

Complete article

Gold trade booming in China

World Gold Council - Gold is coming back in fashion in China, according to latest reports, with the middle class queuing up to purchase the precious metal. Evidence of the demand for gold was particularly clear when the Caishikou department store sold all its gold bars in just a matter of hours last month. When a second set of gold bars was released, the top gold retailer in Beijing asked people to register by phone and nearly 3,000 people did. The urban middle class is looking to cash in on the value of the precious metal and all made sure they benefited from the recent price peak for gold. Although exporting gold is still banned, a booming home-grown market has now allowed the metal to trade relatively freely, according to the China Post. Last year 235.35 tonnes of gold were traded on the exchange and the figure had already reached 170.04 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2004 alone.

Complete article

The ABCs of Gold Investing

In 1920 the German government issued both 20 mark paper notes and gold 20 mark coins with a net fine gold weight of .2304 ounces. It is interesting to note that if you were to hold both in your hand today - the 20 mark national note would be worthless and the 20 mark gold coin would still approximate the same purchasing power it did in 1920. For that matter, the German government issued a 20 million mark note a few years later which commanded the same purchasing power as the original 20 mark note. And a couple of years after that a 2 billion mark note commanded the same purchasing power as the original note. All the notes are now worthless though they make for interesting conversation pieces. At the height of the Nightmare German Inflation in 1924 the 20 mark gold coin (pictured here) was worth nearly three billion marks - testimony to the transience of paper money and the historical stability of gold.

You can order The Nightmare German Inflation in hard copy at no charge by contacting:

admin@usagold.com

800-869-5115 Extension #106
Marie Ballard

Of interest to gold investors

January 24th: Worst day of year (MSNBC)
Psychologists say to stay in bed today.
Second term tests (Pat Buchanan)
The fire bells of inflation; a war of choice
Behind the falling dollar (Washington Times)
The U.S. could sink into a depression and take the world with it.

 Quote of the Week

"Investing in gold can secure a glittering return. Nations have built wealth and power on gold...a commodity people can touch instead of cash. The history of gold is as old as time itself. From references to gold in Genesis to the myths of Jason and King Midas and the legend of King Solomon's mines, gold has been a symbol of wealth, freedom and power. Empires and nations ­ from Charlemagne to the Spanish conquest of the New World to the American frontier movement ­ pursued gold or built on its promise. Gold today is not just the preserve of the jeweller and all who appreciate fine pieces that use this precious metal in its making. In an unstable world, gold should form part of a balanced portfolio and there are several ways in which this can be achieved for the individual. In value, gold has been rising dramatically recently. From US$253 per troy oz in November 1999, the price rose to US$454.2/troy oz in early December ­ the highest level for 16 years. It can be a useful 'insurance' against extreme movements in traditional assets and rarely follows economic patterns."

Conal Gregory, Yorkshire Post

Worth Keeping: Our archive of important quotes
This is a useful, easy-to-digest reference of recent gold market analysis from the experts.


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